Andrew Bustamante: CIA Spy - Lex Fridman 知识图谱

Lex Fridman (01:23.060)

That doesn't include domestic intelligence.

Andrew Bustamante (01:26.140)

It's primarily looking outward outside the United States.

Lex Fridman (01:29.420)

Correct.

Andrew Bustamante (01:30.260)

CIA is the foreign intelligence collection,

Lex Fridman (01:35.660)

king spoke, if you will.

Andrew Bustamante (01:37.500)

FBI does domestic,

Lex Fridman (01:38.940)

and then Department of Homeland Security does domestic.

Andrew Bustamante (01:41.620)

Law enforcement essentially handles all things domestic.

Lex Fridman (01:45.300)

Intelligence is not law enforcement,

Lex Fridman (01:46.740)

so we technically cannot work inside the United States.

Lex Fridman (01:49.980)

Is there clear lines to be drawn between,

Andrew Bustamante (01:52.460)

like you just said, the FBI, CIA, FBI,

Lex Fridman (01:55.980)

and the other U.S. intelligence agencies

Andrew Bustamante (01:58.260)

like the DIA, Defense Intelligence Agency,

Lex Fridman (02:01.860)

Department of Homeland Security,

Andrew Bustamante (02:04.420)

NSA, National Security Agency, and there's a list.

Lex Fridman (02:08.100)

There's a list of about 33

Andrew Bustamante (02:09.740)

different intelligence organizations.

Lex Fridman (02:11.100)

Yeah. So like the Army, the Navy has,

Andrew Bustamante (02:12.980)

all the different organizations

Lex Fridman (02:14.780)

have their own intelligence groups.

Lex Fridman (02:16.740)

So is there clear lines here to be drawn,

Lex Fridman (02:19.740)

or is the CIA the giant integrator of all of these?

Andrew Bustamante (02:23.180)

It's a little bit of both, to be honest.

Lex Fridman (02:24.540)

So yes, there are absolutely lines,

Lex Fridman (02:26.280)

and more so than the lines.

Lex Fridman (02:28.340)

There are lines that divide what our primary mission is.

Andrew Bustamante (02:30.960)

Everything's gotta be prioritized.

Lex Fridman (02:32.740)

That's one of the benefits

Lex Fridman (02:34.060)

and the superpowers of the United States,

Lex Fridman (02:36.100)

is we prioritize everything.

Lex Fridman (02:38.620)

So different intelligence organizations are prioritized

Lex Fridman (02:41.080)

to collect certain types of intelligence.

Lex Fridman (02:43.540)

And then within the confines of how they collect,

Lex Fridman (02:47.100)

they're also given unique authorities,

Andrew Bustamante (02:49.340)

authorities are a term that's directed

Lex Fridman (02:51.500)

by the executive branch.

Andrew Bustamante (02:53.460)

Different agencies have different authorities

Lex Fridman (02:55.500)

to execute missions in different ways.

Andrew Bustamante (02:58.620)

FBI can't execute the same way CIA executes,

Lex Fridman (03:01.220)

and CIA can't execute the same way NGA executes.

Lex Fridman (03:05.480)

But then at the end, excuse me, when it's all collected,

Lex Fridman (03:08.900)

then yes, CIA still acts as a final synthesizing repository

Andrew Bustamante (03:15.080)

to create what's known as the president's daily brief,

Lex Fridman (03:17.700)

the PDB, the only way CIA can create the PDB

Andrew Bustamante (03:20.760)

is by being the single source of all source intelligence

Lex Fridman (03:24.860)

from around the IC, the intelligence community,

Andrew Bustamante (03:28.380)

which are those 30 some odd and always changing organizations

Lex Fridman (03:33.500)

that are sponsored for intelligence operations.

Lex Fridman (03:35.980)

What is the PDB, the president's daily brief look like?

Lex Fridman (03:38.900)

How long is it?

Lex Fridman (03:39.740)

What does it contain?

Lex Fridman (03:41.580)

So first of all, it looks like the most expensive

Andrew Bustamante (03:43.940)

book report you can ever imagine.

Lex Fridman (03:45.300)

It's got its own binder.

Andrew Bustamante (03:46.820)

It's all very high end.

Lex Fridman (03:48.980)

It feels important, it looks important.

Andrew Bustamante (03:51.100)

It's not like a cheap trapper keeper.

Lex Fridman (03:54.220)

It's somewhere between, I would give it probably

Andrew Bustamante (03:56.780)

between 50 and 125 pages a day.

Lex Fridman (03:59.340)

It's produced every day around two o clock in the morning

Andrew Bustamante (04:02.500)

by a dedicated group of analysts.

Lex Fridman (04:04.500)

And each page is essentially a short paragraph

Andrew Bustamante (04:09.880)

to a few paragraphs about a priority happening

Lex Fridman (04:13.400)

that affects national security from around the world.

Andrew Bustamante (04:16.500)

The president rarely gets to the entire briefing in a day.

Lex Fridman (04:19.660)

He relies on a briefer instead to prioritize

Lex Fridman (04:22.780)

what inside the briefing needs to be shared

Lex Fridman (04:25.060)

with the president.

Andrew Bustamante (04:25.900)

Because some days the PDB will get briefed in 10 minutes

Lex Fridman (04:28.600)

and some days it'll be briefed over the course of two hours.

Andrew Bustamante (04:30.560)

It depends on the president's schedule.

Lex Fridman (04:32.820)

How much competition is there for the first page?

Lex Fridman (04:36.220)

And so how much jockeying there is for attention?

Lex Fridman (04:41.080)

I imagine for all the different intelligence agencies

Lex Fridman (04:44.500)

and within the CIA there's probably different groups

Lex Fridman (04:46.980)

that are modular and they all care about different nations

Andrew Bustamante (04:50.680)

or different cases.

Lex Fridman (04:54.740)

Do you understand how much competition there is

Andrew Bustamante (04:58.660)

for the attention, for the limited attention

Lex Fridman (05:00.600)

of the president?

Andrew Bustamante (05:01.480)

You're 100% correct in how the agency

Lex Fridman (05:05.300)

and how officers and managers at the agency handle the PDB.

Andrew Bustamante (05:09.620)

There's a ton of competition.

Lex Fridman (05:10.940)

Everybody wants to be the first on the radar.

Andrew Bustamante (05:12.660)

Everybody wants to be on the first page.

Lex Fridman (05:14.360)

The thing that we're not baking into the equation

Andrew Bustamante (05:17.240)

is the president's interests.

Lex Fridman (05:19.140)

The president dictates what's on the first page of his PDB

Lex Fridman (05:21.460)

and he will tell them usually the day before,

Lex Fridman (05:23.780)

I wanna see this on the first page tomorrow.

Andrew Bustamante (05:25.420)

Bring this to me in the beginning.

Lex Fridman (05:26.580)

I don't wanna hear about what's happening in Mozambique.

Andrew Bustamante (05:28.700)

I don't really care about what's happening in Saudi Arabia.

Lex Fridman (05:30.880)

I wanna see one, two, three.

Lex Fridman (05:32.820)

And regardless of whether or not

Lex Fridman (05:34.220)

those are the three biggest things in the world,

Andrew Bustamante (05:37.020)

the president's the executive, he's the one.

Lex Fridman (05:39.300)

He's the ultimate customer.

Lex Fridman (05:40.660)

So we do what the customer says.

Lex Fridman (05:42.580)

That has backfired in the past.

Andrew Bustamante (05:44.620)

If you haven't already started seeing

Lex Fridman (05:46.500)

how that could go wrong, that has backfired in the past,

Lex Fridman (05:49.240)

but that is essentially what happens

Lex Fridman (05:51.200)

when you serve in the executive branch.

Andrew Bustamante (05:53.320)

You serve the executive.

Lex Fridman (05:55.080)

So what's the role of the director of the CIA

Lex Fridman (05:58.060)

versus the president?

Lex Fridman (05:59.800)

What's that dance like?

Lex Fridman (06:01.280)

So the president really leads the focus of the CIA?

Lex Fridman (06:06.060)

The president is the commander in chief for the military,

Lex Fridman (06:09.320)

but the president is also the executive

Lex Fridman (06:12.660)

for the entirety of the intelligence community.

Lex Fridman (06:16.220)

So he's the ultimate customer.

Lex Fridman (06:19.540)

If you look at it like a business,

Andrew Bustamante (06:21.940)

the customer, the person spending the money

Lex Fridman (06:24.300)

is the president and the director is the CEO.

Lex Fridman (06:27.500)

So if the director doesn't create what the president wants,

Lex Fridman (06:30.600)

there's gonna be a new director.

Andrew Bustamante (06:31.620)

That's why the director of CIA

Lex Fridman (06:32.900)

is a presidential appointed position.

Andrew Bustamante (06:34.560)

Sometimes they're extremely qualified

Lex Fridman (06:36.240)

intelligence professionals.

Andrew Bustamante (06:37.620)

Sometimes they're just professional politicians

Lex Fridman (06:39.600)

or soldiers that get put into that seat

Andrew Bustamante (06:41.500)

because the president trusts them

Lex Fridman (06:43.800)

to do what he wants them to do.

Andrew Bustamante (06:46.740)

Another gaping area that causes problems,

Lex Fridman (06:52.380)

but that's still the way it is.

Lex Fridman (06:54.240)

So you think this is a problematic configuration

Lex Fridman (06:57.260)

of the whole system?

Andrew Bustamante (06:58.100)

Massive flaw in the system.

Lex Fridman (06:59.460)

It is a massive flaw in the system

Andrew Bustamante (07:00.860)

because if you're essentially appointing a director

Lex Fridman (07:03.860)

to do what you want them to do,

Andrew Bustamante (07:05.500)

then you're assigning a crony.

Lex Fridman (07:08.580)

And that's what we define corruption as

Andrew Bustamante (07:10.820)

within the United States.

Lex Fridman (07:11.660)

And inside the United States,

Andrew Bustamante (07:12.660)

we say if you pick somebody outside of merit

Lex Fridman (07:15.020)

for any other reason other than merit,

Andrew Bustamante (07:16.660)

then it's cronyism or it's nepotism.

Lex Fridman (07:19.500)

Here, that's exactly what our structure is built on.

Andrew Bustamante (07:21.720)

All presidential appointees

Lex Fridman (07:22.900)

are appointed on something other than merit.

Lex Fridman (07:25.060)

So for an intelligence agency to be effective,

Lex Fridman (07:27.460)

it has to discover the truth and communicate that truth.

Lex Fridman (07:31.740)

And maybe if you're appointing the director of that agency,

Lex Fridman (07:34.700)

you're not, they're less likely to communicate the truth

Andrew Bustamante (07:37.780)

to you unless the truth aligns perfectly

Lex Fridman (07:39.980)

with your desired worldview.

Andrew Bustamante (07:41.740)

Well, not necessarily perfectly

Lex Fridman (07:43.080)

because there are other steps, right?

Andrew Bustamante (07:44.840)

They have to be, they have to go in front of Congress

Lex Fridman (07:46.900)

and they have to have the support

Andrew Bustamante (07:48.440)

of multiple legislatures or legislators,

Lex Fridman (07:51.940)

but the challenge is that the shortlist of people

Andrew Bustamante (07:55.800)

who even get the opportunity aren't a meritorious list.

Lex Fridman (07:59.280)

It's a shortlist based off of who the president is picking

Andrew Bustamante (08:01.540)

or who the would be president is picking.

Lex Fridman (08:03.340)

Now, I think we've proven

Andrew Bustamante (08:05.100)

that an intelligence organization can be,

Lex Fridman (08:07.680)

an intelligence organization can be extremely effective

Andrew Bustamante (08:10.580)

even within the flawed system.

Lex Fridman (08:13.300)

The challenge is how much more effective could we be

Lex Fridman (08:16.300)

if we improved?

Lex Fridman (08:17.740)

And that's, I think that's the challenge

Andrew Bustamante (08:20.180)

that faces a lot of the US government.

Lex Fridman (08:21.940)

I think that's a challenge that has resulted

Andrew Bustamante (08:24.860)

in what we see today when it comes to the decline

Lex Fridman (08:28.540)

of American power and American influence,

Andrew Bustamante (08:31.140)

the rise of foreign influence, authoritarian powers,

Lex Fridman (08:35.420)

and a shrinking US economy, a growing Chinese economy.

Lex Fridman (08:39.460)

And it's just, we have questions, hard questions

Lex Fridman (08:42.420)

we need to ask ourselves

Andrew Bustamante (08:43.340)

about how we're gonna handle the future.

Lex Fridman (08:45.200)

What aspect of that communication between the president

Lex Fridman (08:47.820)

and the CIA could be fixed to help fix the problems

Lex Fridman (08:53.420)

that you're referring to

Lex Fridman (08:54.540)

in terms of the decline of American power?

Lex Fridman (08:57.580)

So when you talk about the president wanting to prioritize

Lex Fridman (09:02.600)

what the president cares about,

Lex Fridman (09:04.600)

that immediately shows a break

Andrew Bustamante (09:07.540)

between what actually matters

Lex Fridman (09:09.700)

to the longterm success of the United States

Andrew Bustamante (09:12.320)

versus what happened,

Lex Fridman (09:13.300)

what benefits the short term success

Andrew Bustamante (09:15.540)

of the current president.

Lex Fridman (09:16.500)

Because any president is just a human being

Lex Fridman (09:20.160)

and has a very narrow focus.

Lex Fridman (09:21.900)

And narrow focus is not a longterm calculation.

Andrew Bustamante (09:24.720)

Exactly, what's the maximum amount of years

Lex Fridman (09:26.660)

the president can be president?

Andrew Bustamante (09:28.300)

Eight.

Lex Fridman (09:29.260)

He has to be, he or she.

Andrew Bustamante (09:30.620)

In the United States.

Lex Fridman (09:31.620)

In the United States,

Andrew Bustamante (09:32.700)

according to our current constitution.

Lex Fridman (09:34.340)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (09:35.180)

But they're very limited

Lex Fridman (09:39.340)

in terms of what they have to prioritize.

Lex Fridman (09:41.600)

And then if you look at a four year cycle,

Lex Fridman (09:44.060)

two years of that is essentially preparing

Andrew Bustamante (09:45.740)

for the next election cycle.

Lex Fridman (09:47.120)

So that's only two years of really quality attention

Andrew Bustamante (09:49.160)

you get from the president,

Lex Fridman (09:50.060)

who is the chief executive

Andrew Bustamante (09:51.500)

of all the intelligence community.

Lex Fridman (09:53.100)

So the most important thing to them

Andrew Bustamante (09:55.220)

is not always the most important thing

Lex Fridman (09:57.020)

to the longterm survival of the United States.

Lex Fridman (09:59.660)

What do you make of the hostile relationship

Lex Fridman (10:02.020)

that to me at least stands out of the presidents

Lex Fridman (10:04.680)

between Donald Trump and the CIA?

Lex Fridman (10:07.320)

Was that a very kind of personal bickering?

Andrew Bustamante (10:11.460)

I mean, is there something interesting to you

Lex Fridman (10:13.280)

about the dynamics between that particular president

Lex Fridman (10:16.300)

and that particular instantiation

Lex Fridman (10:17.980)

of the intelligence agency?

Andrew Bustamante (10:19.380)

Man, there were lots of things fascinating to me

Lex Fridman (10:21.720)

about that relationship.

Andrew Bustamante (10:23.700)

What's the good and the bad, sorry to interrupt.

Lex Fridman (10:26.140)

So let me start with the good first

Andrew Bustamante (10:27.980)

because there's a lot of people

Lex Fridman (10:28.820)

who don't think there was any good.

Lex Fridman (10:30.940)

So the good thing is we saw that the president

Lex Fridman (10:35.740)

who's the chief customer, the executive to the CIA,

Andrew Bustamante (10:40.380)

when the president doesn't want to hear

Lex Fridman (10:42.520)

what CIA has to say, he's not gonna listen.

Andrew Bustamante (10:45.520)

I think that's an important lesson

Lex Fridman (10:46.580)

for everyone to take home.

Andrew Bustamante (10:49.140)

If the president doesn't care what you have to say,

Lex Fridman (10:51.620)

he's gonna take funding away

Andrew Bustamante (10:52.820)

or she will take funding away.

Lex Fridman (10:54.660)

They're gonna take attention away.

Andrew Bustamante (10:56.260)

They're going to shut down your operations, your missions.

Lex Fridman (11:02.600)

They're gonna kill the careers of the people working there.

Andrew Bustamante (11:04.780)

Think about that, for the four years

Lex Fridman (11:05.940)

that President Trump was the president,

Andrew Bustamante (11:08.500)

basically everybody at CIA, their career was put on pause.

Lex Fridman (11:12.000)

Some people's careers were ended.

Andrew Bustamante (11:13.660)

Some people voluntarily left their career there

Lex Fridman (11:16.300)

because they found themselves working for a single customer

Andrew Bustamante (11:20.380)

that didn't want what they had to produce.

Lex Fridman (11:21.940)

So for people who don't know,

Andrew Bustamante (11:24.500)

Donald Trump did not display significant,

Lex Fridman (11:26.980)

deep interest in the output.

Andrew Bustamante (11:29.820)

He did not trust it, yeah.

Lex Fridman (11:30.900)

He was a disinterested customer.

Andrew Bustamante (11:32.460)

Exactly right.

Lex Fridman (11:33.300)

Of the information.

Lex Fridman (11:34.420)

And then what do disinterested customers do?

Lex Fridman (11:37.020)

They go find someone else to create their product.

Lex Fridman (11:39.740)

And that's exactly what Donald Trump did.

Lex Fridman (11:41.180)

And he did it through the private intelligence world,

Andrew Bustamante (11:43.340)

funding private intelligence companies

Lex Fridman (11:45.540)

to run their own operations that brought him

Andrew Bustamante (11:48.120)

the information he cared about when CIA wouldn't.

Lex Fridman (11:50.960)

It also didn't help that CIA

Lex Fridman (11:52.700)

stepped outside of their confines, right?

Lex Fridman (11:54.580)

CIA is supposed to collect foreign intelligence

Lex Fridman (11:56.660)

and not comment on domestic matters.

Lex Fridman (11:58.740)

They went way outside of that

Andrew Bustamante (12:00.420)

when they started challenging the president,

Lex Fridman (12:02.380)

when they started questioning the results,

Andrew Bustamante (12:04.180)

when they started publicly claiming Russian influence.

Lex Fridman (12:08.340)

That's all something the FBI could have handled by itself.

Andrew Bustamante (12:10.780)

The Justice Department could have handled by itself.

Lex Fridman (12:12.560)

CIA had no place to contribute to that conversation.

Lex Fridman (12:16.340)

And when they did, all they did was undermine

Lex Fridman (12:18.800)

the relationship they had with their primary customer.

Andrew Bustamante (12:21.700)

Let me sort of focus in on this relationship

Lex Fridman (12:26.240)

between the president or the leader

Lex Fridman (12:29.120)

and the intelligence agency

Lex Fridman (12:31.100)

and look outside the United States.

Andrew Bustamante (12:34.100)

It seems like authoritarian regimes

Lex Fridman (12:36.500)

or regimes throughout history,

Andrew Bustamante (12:37.860)

if you look at Stalin and Hitler,

Lex Fridman (12:39.780)

if you look at today with Vladimir Putin,

Andrew Bustamante (12:42.700)

the negative effects of power

Lex Fridman (12:44.420)

corrupting the mind of a leader

Andrew Bustamante (12:46.460)

manifest itself is that they start

Lex Fridman (12:50.340)

to get bad information from the intelligence agencies.

Lex Fridman (12:53.420)

So this kind of thing that you're talking about,

Lex Fridman (12:55.660)

over time, they start hearing information

Andrew Bustamante (12:58.660)

they want to hear.

Lex Fridman (13:00.760)

The agency starts producing

Andrew Bustamante (13:02.220)

only the kind of information they want to hear,

Lex Fridman (13:05.620)

and the leader's worldview starts becoming distorted

Andrew Bustamante (13:09.900)

to where the propaganda they generate

Lex Fridman (13:13.860)

is also the thing that the intelligence agencies

Andrew Bustamante (13:17.260)

provide to them, and so they start getting this,

Lex Fridman (13:19.740)

they start believing their own propaganda,

Lex Fridman (13:21.580)

and they start getting a distorted view of the world.

Lex Fridman (13:23.760)

Sorry for the sort of walking through in a weird way,

Lex Fridman (13:27.460)

but I guess I want to ask, do you think,

Lex Fridman (13:29.820)

let's look at Vladimir Putin specifically.

Lex Fridman (13:32.620)

Do you think he's getting accurate information

Lex Fridman (13:37.780)

about the world?

Lex Fridman (13:38.620)

Do you think he knows the truth of the world,

Lex Fridman (13:40.820)

whether that's the war in Ukraine,

Andrew Bustamante (13:42.640)

whether that's the behavior of the other nations,

Lex Fridman (13:45.140)

in NATO, the United States in general?

Lex Fridman (13:47.460)

What do you think?

Lex Fridman (13:49.060)

It's rare that I'll talk about just thinking.

Andrew Bustamante (13:52.580)

I prefer to share my assessment,

Lex Fridman (13:55.420)

why I assess things a certain way,

Andrew Bustamante (13:56.980)

rather than just what's my random opinion.

Lex Fridman (13:59.580)

In my assessment, Vladimir Putin is winning.

Andrew Bustamante (14:02.940)

Russia is winning.

Lex Fridman (14:04.140)

They're winning in Ukraine, but they're also winning

Andrew Bustamante (14:06.980)

the battle of influence against the West.

Lex Fridman (14:08.820)

They're winning in the face of economic sanctions.

Andrew Bustamante (14:11.160)

They're winning.

Lex Fridman (14:12.340)

Empirically, when you look at the math, they're winning.

Lex Fridman (14:15.460)

So when you ask me whether or not Putin

Lex Fridman (14:18.140)

is getting good information from his intelligence services,

Andrew Bustamante (14:20.540)

when I look at my overall assessment of multiple data points,

Lex Fridman (14:24.460)

he must be getting good information.

Lex Fridman (14:26.920)

Do I know how or why?

Lex Fridman (14:28.540)

I do not.

Andrew Bustamante (14:29.700)

I don't know how or why it works there.

Lex Fridman (14:31.220)

I don't know how such deep cronyism,

Andrew Bustamante (14:35.020)

such deep corruption can possibly yield true real results.

Lex Fridman (14:40.020)

And yet, somehow there are real results happening.

Lex Fridman (14:42.600)

So it's either excessive waste and an accidental win,

Lex Fridman (14:46.160)

or there really is a system and a process there

Andrew Bustamante (14:48.280)

that's functioning.

Lex Fridman (14:49.360)

So this winning idea is very interesting.

Lex Fridman (14:51.760)

In what way, short term and long term, is Russia winning?

Lex Fridman (14:55.400)

Some people say there was a miscalculation

Andrew Bustamante (14:57.160)

of the way the invasion happened.

Lex Fridman (14:59.800)

There was an assumption that you would be able

Andrew Bustamante (15:02.520)

to successfully take Kiev.

Lex Fridman (15:05.000)

You'd be able to successfully capture the East,

Andrew Bustamante (15:07.880)

the South, and the North of Ukraine.

Lex Fridman (15:10.720)

And with what now appears to be

Andrew Bustamante (15:14.120)

significantly insufficient troops

Lex Fridman (15:16.360)

spread way too thin across way too large of a front.

Lex Fridman (15:20.880)

So that seems to be like an intelligence failure.

Lex Fridman (15:25.480)

And that doesn't seem to be like winning.

Andrew Bustamante (15:28.720)

In another way, it doesn't seem like winning

Lex Fridman (15:30.760)

if we put aside the human cost of war.

Andrew Bustamante (15:33.840)

It doesn't seem like winning

Lex Fridman (15:36.280)

because the hearts and minds of the West

Andrew Bustamante (15:40.720)

were completely on the side of Ukraine.

Lex Fridman (15:43.260)

This particular leader, Volodymyr Zelensky,

Andrew Bustamante (15:46.120)

captured the attention of the world

Lex Fridman (15:48.080)

and the hearts and minds of Europe, the West,

Lex Fridman (15:52.120)

and many other nations throughout the world,

Lex Fridman (15:54.460)

both financially, in terms of military equipment,

Lex Fridman (15:57.360)

and in terms of sort of social and cultural

Lex Fridman (16:01.460)

and emotional support for the independence fight

Andrew Bustamante (16:04.760)

of this nation.

Lex Fridman (16:05.880)

That seems to be like a miscalculation.

Lex Fridman (16:08.720)

So against that pushback,

Lex Fridman (16:12.120)

why do you think there's still kernels

Lex Fridman (16:15.840)

of winning in this on the Russian side?

Lex Fridman (16:19.920)

What you're laying out isn't incorrect.

Lex Fridman (16:21.920)

And the miscalculations are not unexpected.

Lex Fridman (16:26.320)

Anybody who's been to a military college,

Andrew Bustamante (16:28.960)

including the Army War College in Pennsylvania,

Lex Fridman (16:30.700)

where so many of our military leaders are brought up,

Andrew Bustamante (16:34.880)

when you look at the conflict in Ukraine,

Lex Fridman (16:37.920)

it fits the exact mold

Andrew Bustamante (16:40.400)

of what an effective longterm military conflict,

Lex Fridman (16:44.840)

protracted military conflict,

Andrew Bustamante (16:46.200)

would and should look like for military dominance.

Lex Fridman (16:49.600)

Now, did Zelensky and did the Ukrainians

Lex Fridman (16:52.420)

shock the world?

Lex Fridman (16:53.260)

Absolutely.

Lex Fridman (16:54.240)

But in that, they also shocked American intelligence,

Lex Fridman (16:57.800)

which, like you said, miscalculated.

Andrew Bustamante (17:00.200)

The whole world miscalculated

Lex Fridman (17:01.560)

how the Ukrainians would respond.

Andrew Bustamante (17:03.200)

Putin did not move in there accidentally.

Lex Fridman (17:05.560)

He had an assessment.

Andrew Bustamante (17:06.800)

He had high likelihood of a certain outcome,

Lex Fridman (17:09.400)

and that outcome did not happen.

Lex Fridman (17:11.440)

Why did he have that calculation?

Lex Fridman (17:13.120)

Because in 2014, it worked.

Andrew Bustamante (17:15.980)

He invaded, he took Crimea in 14 days.

Lex Fridman (17:19.760)

He basically created an infiltration campaign

Andrew Bustamante (17:25.080)

that turned key leaders over

Lex Fridman (17:26.880)

in the first few days of the conflict.

Lex Fridman (17:29.240)

So essentially, there was no conflict.

Lex Fridman (17:30.720)

It worked in 2008 when he took Georgia.

Andrew Bustamante (17:33.240)

Nobody talks about that.

Lex Fridman (17:35.040)

He invaded Georgia the exact same way, and it worked.

Lex Fridman (17:38.340)

So in 2008, it worked.

Lex Fridman (17:39.400)

In 2014, it worked.

Andrew Bustamante (17:40.360)

There was no reason to believe it wasn't going to work again.

Lex Fridman (17:43.180)

So he just carried out the same campaign.

Lex Fridman (17:45.520)

But this time, something was different.

Lex Fridman (17:47.600)

That was a miscalculation for sure on the part of Putin.

Lex Fridman (17:51.100)

And the reason that there was no support from the West,

Lex Fridman (17:53.000)

because let's not forget, there is no support.

Andrew Bustamante (17:55.440)

There is nothing other than the Lend Lease Act,

Lex Fridman (17:58.680)

which is putting Ukraine in massive debt right now

Andrew Bustamante (18:01.880)

to the West.

Lex Fridman (18:03.340)

That's the only form of support they're getting

Andrew Bustamante (18:05.200)

from NATO or the United States.

Lex Fridman (18:08.220)

So if somebody believed Ukraine would win,

Andrew Bustamante (18:10.840)

if somebody believed Ukraine had a chance,

Lex Fridman (18:12.280)

they would have gotten more material support

Andrew Bustamante (18:13.680)

than just debt.

Lex Fridman (18:15.520)

And we can jump into that anytime you want to.

Lex Fridman (18:17.780)

But the whole world miscalculated.

Lex Fridman (18:19.480)

Everybody thought Russia was going to win in 14 days.

Andrew Bustamante (18:21.440)

I said that they would win in 14 days

Lex Fridman (18:23.560)

because that was the predominant calculation.

Andrew Bustamante (18:26.360)

Once the first invasion didn't work,

Lex Fridman (18:28.960)

then the military does what professional militaries do, man.

Andrew Bustamante (18:32.760)

They reevaluate, they reorganize leaders,

Lex Fridman (18:38.080)

and then they take a new approach.

Andrew Bustamante (18:40.340)

You saw three approaches.

Lex Fridman (18:41.720)

The first two did not work.

Andrew Bustamante (18:43.720)

The first two campaigns against Ukraine did not work

Lex Fridman (18:46.240)

the way they were supposed to work.

Andrew Bustamante (18:47.680)

The third has worked exactly like it's supposed to work.

Lex Fridman (18:51.280)

You don't need Kiev to win Ukraine.

Andrew Bustamante (18:53.780)

You don't need hearts and minds to win Ukraine.

Lex Fridman (18:56.560)

What you need is control of natural resources,

Andrew Bustamante (19:00.800)

which they're taking in the East,

Lex Fridman (19:02.680)

and you need access to the heartbeat,

Andrew Bustamante (19:05.880)

the blood flow of food and money into the country,

Lex Fridman (19:09.120)

which they're taking in the South.

Andrew Bustamante (19:10.900)

The fact that Ukraine had to go to the negotiation table

Lex Fridman (19:14.760)

with Russia and Turkey in order to get exports

Andrew Bustamante (19:19.400)

out of the Black Sea approved again

Lex Fridman (19:21.760)

demonstrates just how much Ukraine is losing.

Andrew Bustamante (19:25.240)

The aggressor had a seat at the negotiation table

Lex Fridman (19:29.500)

to allow Ukraine the ability to even export

Andrew Bustamante (19:32.400)

one of its top exports.

Lex Fridman (19:33.880)

If Russia would have said no,

Andrew Bustamante (19:35.480)

then they would not have had that.

Lex Fridman (19:37.120)

Russia has, that's like someone holding your throat.

Andrew Bustamante (19:39.640)

It's like somebody holding your jugular vein and saying,

Lex Fridman (19:43.200)

if you don't do what I tell you to do,

Andrew Bustamante (19:46.480)

then I'm not gonna let you breathe.

Lex Fridman (19:48.340)

I'm not gonna let blood flow to your brain.

Lex Fridman (19:50.080)

So do you think it's possible that Russia

Lex Fridman (19:52.880)

takes the South of Ukraine?

Andrew Bustamante (19:56.140)

It takes, so starting from Mariupol, the Kherson region.

Lex Fridman (1:00:02.160)

If you work against us, we will do this to you.

Andrew Bustamante (1:00:05.400)

If you work for us, we will take care of you in this way.

Lex Fridman (1:00:09.100)

It's a massive information campaign.

Lex Fridman (1:00:11.820)

Do you think in that way, CIA is not doing a good job?

Lex Fridman (1:00:15.420)

Because there is the FSB, perhaps much less so GRU,

Lex Fridman (1:00:20.740)

but the KGB did this well,

Lex Fridman (1:00:24.660)

which is to send a signal, like basically communicate

Andrew Bustamante (1:00:28.700)

that this is a terrifying organization with a lot of power.

Lex Fridman (1:00:33.540)

So Mossad is doing a good job of that.

Andrew Bustamante (1:00:35.780)

Correct.

Lex Fridman (1:00:36.820)

The psychological information warfare.

Lex Fridman (1:00:39.720)

And it seems like the CIA also has a lot of kind of myths

Lex Fridman (1:00:47.380)

about it, conspiracy theories about it,

Lex Fridman (1:00:49.420)

but much less so than the other agencies.

Lex Fridman (1:00:52.500)

CIA does a good job of playing to the mythos.

Lex Fridman (1:00:54.900)

So when General Petraeus used to be the director of CIA.

Lex Fridman (1:00:58.820)

Yeah, and your workout partner.

Lex Fridman (1:01:00.820)

And my workout partner.

Lex Fridman (1:01:01.660)

I read about this.

Lex Fridman (1:01:02.480)

So I loved and hated those workouts with Petraeus

Lex Fridman (1:01:05.240)

because he is a physical beast.

Andrew Bustamante (1:01:07.900)

He's a strong fit, at the time, 60 something year old man.

Lex Fridman (1:01:11.740)

Let me take a tangent on that because he's coming

Andrew Bustamante (1:01:13.540)

on this podcast.

Lex Fridman (1:01:14.380)

Oh, excellent man.

Lex Fridman (1:01:15.340)

So can you say what you learned from the man

Lex Fridman (1:01:20.420)

in terms of, or like what you think is interesting

Lex Fridman (1:01:25.180)

and powerful and inspiring about the way he sees the world,

Lex Fridman (1:01:28.340)

or maybe what you learned in terms of how to get strong

Andrew Bustamante (1:01:31.780)

in the gym or anything about life.

Lex Fridman (1:01:34.020)

Two things right away.

Lex Fridman (1:01:34.860)

And one of them I was gonna share with you anyway.

Lex Fridman (1:01:36.180)

So I'm glad that you asked the question.

Lex Fridman (1:01:37.500)

So the first is that on our runs and man, he runs fast

Lex Fridman (1:01:43.380)

and we would go for six mile runs through Bangkok.

Lex Fridman (1:01:45.700)

And he talked openly about, I asked him,

Lex Fridman (1:01:51.380)

how do you keep this mystery, this epic mythology

Lex Fridman (1:01:57.980)

about your fitness and your strength?

Lex Fridman (1:02:00.480)

How do you keep all of this alive with the troops?

Lex Fridman (1:02:04.760)

And he had this amazing answer.

Lex Fridman (1:02:06.620)

And he was like, I don't talk about it.

Andrew Bustamante (1:02:08.740)

Myths are born not from somebody orchestrating the myth,

Lex Fridman (1:02:13.400)

but from the source of the myth, simply being secretive.

Lex Fridman (1:02:17.000)

So he's like, I don't talk about it.

Lex Fridman (1:02:18.700)

I've never talked about it.

Andrew Bustamante (1:02:19.900)

I've never exacerbated it.

Lex Fridman (1:02:21.220)

I just do what I do.

Lex Fridman (1:02:22.580)

And I let the troops talk.

Lex Fridman (1:02:23.980)

And he's like, when it's in favor, when it goes in favor

Andrew Bustamante (1:02:26.380)

of discipline and loyalty and commitment, I let it run.

Lex Fridman (1:02:30.820)

If it starts getting destructive or damaging,

Andrew Bustamante (1:02:33.420)

then I have my leadership team step in to fix it.

Lex Fridman (1:02:37.900)

But when it comes to the mythos,

Andrew Bustamante (1:02:40.460)

the myth of him being superpowered soldier,

Lex Fridman (1:02:42.980)

that's what he wants every soldier to be.

Lex Fridman (1:02:44.440)

So he lets it run.

Lex Fridman (1:02:45.720)

And it was so enlightening when he told me,

Andrew Bustamante (1:02:48.940)

when there's a myth that benefits you, you just let it go.

Lex Fridman (1:02:51.420)

You let it happen because it gets you further

Andrew Bustamante (1:02:54.260)

without you doing any work.

Lex Fridman (1:02:55.200)

It costs no investment for you.

Lex Fridman (1:02:56.040)

So the catalyst of the virality of the myth

Lex Fridman (1:02:58.500)

is just being mysterious.

Lex Fridman (1:03:00.500)

And that's what CIA does well,

Lex Fridman (1:03:02.020)

to go back to your first question.

Lex Fridman (1:03:03.260)

What does CIA do?

Lex Fridman (1:03:04.700)

They don't answer any questions.

Andrew Bustamante (1:03:06.540)

They don't say anything.

Lex Fridman (1:03:08.300)

And wherever the myth goes, the myth goes,

Andrew Bustamante (1:03:11.020)

whether it's that they sold drugs

Lex Fridman (1:03:13.100)

or use child prostitutes or whatever else,

Andrew Bustamante (1:03:14.860)

wherever the myth goes, they let it go.

Lex Fridman (1:03:17.120)

Because at the end of the day,

Andrew Bustamante (1:03:18.860)

everybody sits back and says, wow, I really just don't know.

Lex Fridman (1:03:22.220)

Now, the second thing that I learned from Petraeus,

Lex Fridman (1:03:23.820)

and I really am a big fan of Petraeus.

Lex Fridman (1:03:27.140)

I know he made personal mistakes.

Andrew Bustamante (1:03:29.100)

You don't get to be that powerful

Lex Fridman (1:03:30.580)

without making personal mistakes.

Lex Fridman (1:03:32.180)

But when I worked out with him,

Lex Fridman (1:03:33.460)

the one thing that my commanding officer

Andrew Bustamante (1:03:38.460)

told me not to ask about,

Lex Fridman (1:03:39.900)

he was like, never ask the general about his family.

Andrew Bustamante (1:03:44.180)

I'm a family guy.

Lex Fridman (1:03:45.240)

So as soon as I met General Petraeus,

Andrew Bustamante (1:03:48.140)

one of the first things I asked him was,

Lex Fridman (1:03:49.940)

hey, what was it like raising a family

Lex Fridman (1:03:51.720)

and being the commander of forces in the Middle East?

Lex Fridman (1:03:55.300)

Like you weren't with your family very much.

Lex Fridman (1:03:57.100)

And the thing I love about the guy,

Lex Fridman (1:03:59.060)

he didn't bite off my head.

Andrew Bustamante (1:04:00.420)

He didn't snap at me.

Lex Fridman (1:04:01.260)

He didn't do anything.

Andrew Bustamante (1:04:02.380)

He openly admitted that he regretted

Lex Fridman (1:04:04.780)

some of the decisions that he made

Andrew Bustamante (1:04:06.660)

because he had to sacrifice his family to get there.

Lex Fridman (1:04:11.180)

Relationships with his children,

Andrew Bustamante (1:04:13.620)

absentee father, missing birthdays,

Lex Fridman (1:04:15.580)

missing, we all say, we all say how sad it is

Andrew Bustamante (1:04:19.140)

to miss birthdays and miss anniversaries,

Lex Fridman (1:04:20.540)

yada, yada, yada.

Andrew Bustamante (1:04:21.380)

Everybody knows what that feels like.

Lex Fridman (1:04:22.200)

Even business people know what that feels like.

Andrew Bustamante (1:04:23.940)

The actual pain that we're talking about

Lex Fridman (1:04:26.040)

is when you're not there to handle

Andrew Bustamante (1:04:28.300)

your 13 year old's questions when a boy breaks up with her

Lex Fridman (1:04:31.660)

or when you're not there to handle the bloody lip

Andrew Bustamante (1:04:34.540)

that your nine year old comes back with

Lex Fridman (1:04:35.940)

from their first encounter with a bully.

Andrew Bustamante (1:04:37.940)

Those are the truly heartbreaking moments

Lex Fridman (1:04:39.780)

that a parent lives and dies by.

Andrew Bustamante (1:04:42.380)

He missed almost all of those

Lex Fridman (1:04:45.620)

because he was fighting a war that we forgot

Lex Fridman (1:04:48.260)

and we gave up on 20 years later, right?

Lex Fridman (1:04:51.580)

He's so honest about that.

Lex Fridman (1:04:54.220)

And it was really inspiring to me

Lex Fridman (1:04:57.040)

to be told not to ask that question.

Lex Fridman (1:04:59.180)

And when I broke that guidance, he didn't reprimand me.

Lex Fridman (1:05:02.940)

He just, he was authentic.

Lex Fridman (1:05:05.600)

And it was absolutely one of the big decisions

Lex Fridman (1:05:07.480)

that helped me leave CIA on my own in 2014.

Lex Fridman (1:05:10.620)

And he was honest on the sacrifice you make.

Lex Fridman (1:05:15.100)

The same man, the same man who just taught me a lesson

Andrew Bustamante (1:05:17.800)

about letting a myth live,

Lex Fridman (1:05:21.500)

that same guy was willing to be so authentic

Andrew Bustamante (1:05:24.460)

about this personal mistake.

Lex Fridman (1:05:27.980)

I like complicated people like that.

Lex Fridman (1:05:30.860)

So what did you, what do you make of that calculation,

Lex Fridman (1:05:34.460)

of family versus job?

Andrew Bustamante (1:05:36.580)

You've given a lot of your life and passion

Lex Fridman (1:05:40.740)

to the CIA, to that work.

Andrew Bustamante (1:05:44.420)

You've spoken positively about that world, the good it does.

Lex Fridman (1:05:51.300)

And yet you're also a family man and you value that.

Lex Fridman (1:05:53.960)

What's that calculation like?

Lex Fridman (1:05:55.220)

What's that trade off like?

Andrew Bustamante (1:05:56.140)

I mean, for me, the calculation is very clear.

Lex Fridman (1:05:57.860)

It's family.

Andrew Bustamante (1:05:58.780)

I left CIA because I chose my family.

Lex Fridman (1:06:03.220)

And when my son was born, my wife and I found out

Andrew Bustamante (1:06:06.540)

that we were pregnant while we were still on mission.

Lex Fridman (1:06:08.340)

We were a tandem couple.

Andrew Bustamante (1:06:09.260)

My wife is also a former CIA officer, undercover like me.

Lex Fridman (1:06:12.620)

We were operating together overseas.

Andrew Bustamante (1:06:14.940)

We got the positive pregnancy test, like so many people do.

Lex Fridman (1:06:18.780)

And she cried.

Andrew Bustamante (1:06:21.780)

My wife was a bad ass.

Lex Fridman (1:06:23.280)

I was just, I was like the accidental spy,

Lex Fridman (1:06:26.340)

but my wife was really good at what she does.

Lex Fridman (1:06:28.300)

And she cried and she was like, what do we do now?

Andrew Bustamante (1:06:32.260)

It's what we've always wanted, a child,

Lex Fridman (1:06:34.860)

but we're in this thing right now.

Andrew Bustamante (1:06:38.860)

There's no space for a child.

Lex Fridman (1:06:41.220)

So long story short, we had our baby.

Andrew Bustamante (1:06:45.620)

CIA brought us back to have the baby.

Lex Fridman (1:06:48.020)

And when we started having conversations about,

Lex Fridman (1:06:50.560)

hey, what do we do next?

Lex Fridman (1:06:52.140)

Cause we're not the type of people

Andrew Bustamante (1:06:53.500)

to wanna just sit around and be domestic.

Lex Fridman (1:06:57.580)

What do we do next?

Lex Fridman (1:06:58.780)

But keep in mind, we have a child now.

Lex Fridman (1:07:00.900)

So here's some of our suggestions.

Andrew Bustamante (1:07:02.600)

We could do this and we can do that.

Lex Fridman (1:07:04.100)

Let us get our child to a place where we can put him

Andrew Bustamante (1:07:06.300)

into an international school,

Lex Fridman (1:07:07.300)

or we can get him into some sort of program

Andrew Bustamante (1:07:10.460)

where we can both operate together again during the day.

Lex Fridman (1:07:17.260)

But CIA just had no,

Andrew Bustamante (1:07:18.460)

they had no patience for that conversation.

Lex Fridman (1:07:19.900)

There was no, family is not their priority.

Lex Fridman (1:07:23.860)

So the fact that we were a tandem couple,

Lex Fridman (1:07:26.100)

two officers, two operators trying to have a baby

Andrew Bustamante (1:07:29.060)

was irrelevant to them.

Lex Fridman (1:07:30.620)

So when they didn't play with us,

Andrew Bustamante (1:07:32.700)

when they did nothing to help us prioritize parenthood

Lex Fridman (1:07:39.380)

as part of our overall experience,

Andrew Bustamante (1:07:41.460)

that's when we knew that they never would.

Lex Fridman (1:07:43.100)

And what good is it to commit yourself to a career

Andrew Bustamante (1:07:46.500)

if the career is always going to challenge

Lex Fridman (1:07:48.220)

the thing that you value most?

Lex Fridman (1:07:50.160)

And that was the calculation that we made to leave CIA.

Lex Fridman (1:07:53.580)

Not everybody makes that calculation.

Lex Fridman (1:07:55.820)

And a big part of why I am so vocal about my time in CIA

Lex Fridman (1:08:00.340)

is because I am immensely appreciative of the men and women

Andrew Bustamante (1:08:05.420)

who to this day have failed marriages

Lex Fridman (1:08:09.780)

and poor relationships with their children

Andrew Bustamante (1:08:12.100)

because they chose national security.

Lex Fridman (1:08:14.220)

They chose protecting America over their own family.

Lex Fridman (1:08:17.380)

And they've done it even though it's made them

Lex Fridman (1:08:21.020)

abuse alcohol and abuse substances

Lex Fridman (1:08:23.580)

and they've gotten themselves,

Lex Fridman (1:08:25.380)

they've got permanent diseases and issues

Andrew Bustamante (1:08:29.120)

from living and working abroad.

Lex Fridman (1:08:31.420)

It's just insane the sacrifice that officers make

Andrew Bustamante (1:08:35.400)

to keep America free.

Lex Fridman (1:08:37.560)

And I'm just not one of those people.

Andrew Bustamante (1:08:39.340)

I chose family.

Lex Fridman (1:08:41.600)

You said that your wife misses it.

Lex Fridman (1:08:44.360)

Do you miss it?

Lex Fridman (1:08:45.200)

We both miss it.

Andrew Bustamante (1:08:46.040)

We miss it for different reasons.

Lex Fridman (1:08:47.620)

We miss it for similar reasons, I guess,

Lex Fridman (1:08:49.460)

but we miss it in different ways.

Lex Fridman (1:08:50.900)

The people, the people at CIA are just amazing.

Andrew Bustamante (1:08:55.340)

They're everyday people like the guy and the gal next door,

Lex Fridman (1:09:00.500)

but so smart and so dedicated and so courageous

Andrew Bustamante (1:09:04.940)

about what they do and how they do it.

Lex Fridman (1:09:06.860)

I mean, the sacrifices they make are massive,

Andrew Bustamante (1:09:08.960)

more massive than the sacrifices I made.

Lex Fridman (1:09:10.720)

So I was always inspired

Lex Fridman (1:09:12.140)

and impressed by the people around me.

Lex Fridman (1:09:13.700)

So both my wife and I absolutely miss the people.

Andrew Bustamante (1:09:16.640)

My wife misses the work because you know everything.

Lex Fridman (1:09:20.360)

When you're inside, it's all, I mean, we had top secret.

Andrew Bustamante (1:09:25.220)

We had TS SCI clearances at the time.

Lex Fridman (1:09:27.140)

I had a cat six, cat 12, which makes me nuclear cleared.

Andrew Bustamante (1:09:30.440)

My wife had other privy clearances

Lex Fridman (1:09:32.820)

that allowed her to look into areas that were specialized,

Lex Fridman (1:09:37.300)

but there wasn't a headline that went out

Lex Fridman (1:09:40.920)

that we couldn't fact check with a click of a few buttons.

Lex Fridman (1:09:44.220)

And she misses that because she loved that kind of knowledge.

Lex Fridman (1:09:46.260)

And now you're just one of us living

Andrew Bustamante (1:09:48.940)

in the cloud of mystery.

Lex Fridman (1:09:51.900)

Exactly.

Andrew Bustamante (1:09:52.740)

Not really knowing anything about what's going on.

Lex Fridman (1:09:54.380)

Exactly, but for me,

Andrew Bustamante (1:09:55.620)

I've always been the person that likes operating.

Lex Fridman (1:09:59.060)

And you know what you still get to do when you leave CIA?

Andrew Bustamante (1:10:01.020)

You still get to operate.

Lex Fridman (1:10:02.460)

Operating is just working with people.

Andrew Bustamante (1:10:04.340)

It's understanding how people think,

Lex Fridman (1:10:06.180)

predicting their actions,

Andrew Bustamante (1:10:07.180)

driving their direction of their thoughts, persuading them,

Lex Fridman (1:10:10.440)

winning negotiations.

Andrew Bustamante (1:10:13.140)

You still get to do that.

Lex Fridman (1:10:14.060)

You do that every day.

Lex Fridman (1:10:15.460)

And you can apply that in all kinds of domains.

Lex Fridman (1:10:18.540)

Well, let me ask you on that.

Andrew Bustamante (1:10:21.020)

You're a covert CIA intelligence officer for several years.

Lex Fridman (1:10:25.980)

Maybe can you tell me the story of how it all began?

Lex Fridman (1:10:28.660)

How were you recruited?

Lex Fridman (1:10:30.700)

And what did the job entail

Lex Fridman (1:10:32.580)

to the degree you can speak about it?

Lex Fridman (1:10:34.240)

Feel free to direct me if I'm getting too boring

Andrew Bustamante (1:10:36.140)

or if the camera.

Lex Fridman (1:10:37.460)

Every aspect of this is super exciting.

Lex Fridman (1:10:40.780)

So I was leaving the United States Air Force in 2007.

Lex Fridman (1:10:46.980)

I was a lieutenant getting ready to pin on captain.

Andrew Bustamante (1:10:51.220)

My five years was up.

Lex Fridman (1:10:53.020)

And I was a very bad fit for the US Air Force.

Andrew Bustamante (1:10:56.260)

I was an Air Force Academy graduate, not by choice,

Lex Fridman (1:10:58.900)

but by lack of opportunity, lack of options otherwise.

Lex Fridman (1:11:01.820)

So I forced myself through the Academy,

Lex Fridman (1:11:03.740)

barely graduated with a 2.4 GPA.

Lex Fridman (1:11:07.140)

And then went on the Air Force taught me how to fly.

Lex Fridman (1:11:09.420)

And then the Air Force taught me about nuclear weapons.

Lex Fridman (1:11:11.960)

And I ended up as a nuclear missile commander in Montana.

Lex Fridman (1:11:18.300)

And I chose to leave the Air Force

Andrew Bustamante (1:11:20.820)

because I didn't like shaving my face.

Lex Fridman (1:11:23.200)

I didn't like having short hair.

Lex Fridman (1:11:24.260)

And I most definitely didn't like shining my shoes.

Lex Fridman (1:11:26.260)

And I did not wanna be one of the people

Andrew Bustamante (1:11:28.180)

in charge of nuclear weapons.

Lex Fridman (1:11:29.340)

So when I found myself as a person

Andrew Bustamante (1:11:30.680)

in charge of 200 nuclear weapons,

Lex Fridman (1:11:32.980)

I knew that I was going down the wrong road.

Andrew Bustamante (1:11:34.620)

I have questions about this.

Lex Fridman (1:11:36.180)

And more importantly, I have questions about your hair.

Lex Fridman (1:11:38.420)

So you had short hair at the time?

Lex Fridman (1:11:40.300)

I had, yeah, you have to.

Andrew Bustamante (1:11:41.460)

Military regulations, you can't have hair

Lex Fridman (1:11:42.980)

longer than one inch.

Andrew Bustamante (1:11:43.980)

Okay.

Lex Fridman (1:11:44.820)

And this, the beautiful hair you have now,

Lex Fridman (1:11:48.940)

that came to be in the CIA or after?

Lex Fridman (1:11:52.140)

This, so I discovered I had messy hair in CIA

Andrew Bustamante (1:11:55.380)

because I used to go muge, we called it muge.

Lex Fridman (1:11:58.540)

I used to go Mujahideen style,

Andrew Bustamante (1:12:00.340)

big burly beard and crazy wacky hair.

Lex Fridman (1:12:03.320)

Because an ambiguously brown guy with a big beard

Lex Fridman (1:12:06.420)

and long hair can go anywhere in the world

Lex Fridman (1:12:09.460)

without anyone even noticing him.

Andrew Bustamante (1:12:12.220)

They either think that he's a janitor

Lex Fridman (1:12:14.580)

or they think that he's like some forgotten part of history

Lex Fridman (1:12:18.860)

but nobody ever thinks that that guy is a spy.

Lex Fridman (1:12:21.620)

So it was the perfect, for me,

Andrew Bustamante (1:12:23.620)

it was one of my favorite disguises.

Lex Fridman (1:12:27.700)

It's what's known as a level two disguise.

Andrew Bustamante (1:12:29.140)

One of my favorite disguises to Don

Lex Fridman (1:12:30.500)

was just dilapidated brown guy.

Lex Fridman (1:12:35.800)

Can you actually, we'll just take a million tangents.

Lex Fridman (1:12:37.700)

What's a level two disguise?

Lex Fridman (1:12:40.460)

What are the different levels of disguise?

Lex Fridman (1:12:42.940)

What are the disguises?

Andrew Bustamante (1:12:44.140)

Yeah, there's three levels of disguise by and large.

Lex Fridman (1:12:46.660)

Level one is what we also know,

Lex Fridman (1:12:48.460)

what we also call light disguise.

Lex Fridman (1:12:49.900)

So that's essentially, you put on sunglasses

Lex Fridman (1:12:52.900)

and a ball cap and that's a disguise.

Lex Fridman (1:12:55.060)

You look different than you normally look.

Lex Fridman (1:12:57.360)

So it's just different enough

Lex Fridman (1:12:59.680)

that someone who's never seen you before,

Andrew Bustamante (1:13:01.360)

someone who literally has to see you

Lex Fridman (1:13:02.980)

just from a picture on the internet,

Andrew Bustamante (1:13:05.100)

they may not recognize you.

Lex Fridman (1:13:06.460)

It's why you see celebrities walk around

Andrew Bustamante (1:13:08.060)

with ball caps and oversized jackets and baseball hats

Lex Fridman (1:13:11.900)

because they just need to not look

Andrew Bustamante (1:13:12.860)

like they look in the tabloid

Lex Fridman (1:13:13.900)

or not look like they look in TV.

Andrew Bustamante (1:13:16.340)

That's level one.

Lex Fridman (1:13:17.940)

Let me jump from level one to level three.

Andrew Bustamante (1:13:19.840)

Level three is all of your prosthetics,

Lex Fridman (1:13:22.300)

all the stuff you see in Mission Impossible,

Andrew Bustamante (1:13:24.740)

your fake ears, your fake faces, your fat suits,

Lex Fridman (1:13:28.720)

your stilts inside your feet, all that's level three.

Andrew Bustamante (1:13:32.380)

Whenever they make any kind of prosthetic disguise,

Lex Fridman (1:13:35.860)

that's a level three disguise

Andrew Bustamante (1:13:37.060)

because prosthetics are very damning

Lex Fridman (1:13:41.300)

if you are caught with a prosthetic.

Andrew Bustamante (1:13:43.060)

If you're caught wearing a sudden,

Lex Fridman (1:13:45.260)

wearing a baseball hat and sunglasses,

Andrew Bustamante (1:13:47.220)

nobody's gonna say you're a spy.

Lex Fridman (1:13:49.460)

But when you're caught with a custom made nose prosthetic

Andrew Bustamante (1:13:54.100)

that changes the way your face looks

Lex Fridman (1:13:55.480)

or when someone pops out a fake jaw

Lex Fridman (1:13:57.660)

and they see that your top teeth don't look like they did

Lex Fridman (1:14:00.900)

in this prosthetic, then all of a sudden

Andrew Bustamante (1:14:03.340)

you've got some very difficult questions to ask

Lex Fridman (1:14:05.660)

or to answer.

Lex Fridman (1:14:06.700)

So level three is extremely dangerous.

Lex Fridman (1:14:08.480)

Level one is not dangerous.

Andrew Bustamante (1:14:09.540)

Level two is longterm disguise.

Lex Fridman (1:14:12.380)

Level two is all the things that you can do

Andrew Bustamante (1:14:14.220)

to permanently change the way you look

Lex Fridman (1:14:16.160)

for a long period of time

Lex Fridman (1:14:17.740)

so that whether you're aggressed in the street

Lex Fridman (1:14:20.440)

or whether someone breaks into your hotel room or whatever,

Andrew Bustamante (1:14:23.540)

it's real.

Lex Fridman (1:14:24.720)

So maybe that's, maybe you get a tattoo.

Andrew Bustamante (1:14:27.300)

Maybe you cut your hair short.

Lex Fridman (1:14:28.860)

Maybe you grow your hair long.

Andrew Bustamante (1:14:29.780)

Maybe you go bald.

Lex Fridman (1:14:31.120)

Maybe you start wearing glasses.

Andrew Bustamante (1:14:32.540)

Well, glasses are technically a prosthetic,

Lex Fridman (1:14:34.120)

but you can, if you have teeth pulled,

Andrew Bustamante (1:14:38.240)

if you gain 20 pounds, really gain 20 pounds

Lex Fridman (1:14:42.220)

or lose 15 pounds, whatever you might do,

Andrew Bustamante (1:14:44.300)

all of that's considered level two.

Lex Fridman (1:14:45.580)

It's designed for a longterm mission

Lex Fridman (1:14:48.420)

so that people believe you are who you say you are

Lex Fridman (1:14:52.060)

in that disguise.

Andrew Bustamante (1:14:53.100)

A lot of that is physical characteristics.

Lex Fridman (1:14:55.920)

What about what actors do,

Andrew Bustamante (1:14:59.700)

which is the...

Lex Fridman (1:15:01.260)

Method acting.

Andrew Bustamante (1:15:02.100)

Yeah, the method acting,

Lex Fridman (1:15:03.020)

sort of developing a backstory in your own mind,

Lex Fridman (1:15:07.160)

and then you start pretending

Lex Fridman (1:15:11.460)

that you host a podcast and teach at a university

Lex Fridman (1:15:15.900)

and then do research and so on

Lex Fridman (1:15:17.980)

just so that people can believe

Andrew Bustamante (1:15:19.980)

that you're not actually an agent.

Lex Fridman (1:15:22.860)

Is that part of the disguise levels or no?

Lex Fridman (1:15:24.700)

So yes, disguise has to do with physical character traits.

Lex Fridman (1:15:28.180)

That's what a disguise is.

Lex Fridman (1:15:29.580)

What you're talking about is known as a cover legend.

Lex Fridman (1:15:32.260)

When you go undercover,

Lex Fridman (1:15:33.480)

what you claim to be, who you claim to be,

Lex Fridman (1:15:35.620)

that's called your legend, your cover legend.

Andrew Bustamante (1:15:38.180)

Every disguise would theoretically have

Lex Fridman (1:15:40.580)

its own cover legend.

Andrew Bustamante (1:15:42.380)

Even if it's just to describe

Lex Fridman (1:15:43.660)

why you're wearing what you're wearing,

Andrew Bustamante (1:15:45.300)

it's all a cover.

Lex Fridman (1:15:47.100)

So the method acting,

Andrew Bustamante (1:15:48.900)

this is a fantastic point

Lex Fridman (1:15:50.460)

that I don't get to make very often,

Lex Fridman (1:15:51.460)

so I'm glad you asked.

Lex Fridman (1:15:52.780)

The difference between CIA officers in the field

Lex Fridman (1:15:55.300)

and method actors

Lex Fridman (1:15:56.540)

is that method actors try to become the character.

Andrew Bustamante (1:15:59.940)

They try to shed all vestiges of who they really are

Lex Fridman (1:16:04.280)

and become the character,

Lex Fridman (1:16:05.900)

and that's part of what makes them so amazing,

Lex Fridman (1:16:07.460)

but it's also part of what makes them mentally unstable

Andrew Bustamante (1:16:12.200)

over long periods of time.

Lex Fridman (1:16:13.140)

It's part of what feeds their depression,

Andrew Bustamante (1:16:14.660)

their anxiety, their personal issues,

Lex Fridman (1:16:16.500)

because they lose sight of who they really are.

Andrew Bustamante (1:16:18.920)

Field officers don't get that luxury.

Lex Fridman (1:16:20.760)

We have to always, always remember

Andrew Bustamante (1:16:24.460)

we are a covert CIA intelligence officer

Lex Fridman (1:16:26.940)

collecting secrets in the field.

Andrew Bustamante (1:16:28.620)

We have to remember that.

Lex Fridman (1:16:29.900)

So we're taught a very specific skill

Andrew Bustamante (1:16:32.420)

to compartmentalize our true self separately,

Lex Fridman (1:16:38.020)

but make that true self the true identity.

Lex Fridman (1:16:42.780)

So then we can still live and act

Lex Fridman (1:16:44.620)

and effectively carry out our cover legend

Andrew Bustamante (1:16:47.860)

without ever losing sight,

Lex Fridman (1:16:49.900)

without ever losing that compass true north

Andrew Bustamante (1:16:51.980)

of who we actually are.

Lex Fridman (1:16:53.580)

And then we can compartmentalize

Lex Fridman (1:16:55.140)

and secure all the information that we need,

Lex Fridman (1:16:56.860)

retain it, remember it,

Lex Fridman (1:16:58.260)

but then return to our true self

Lex Fridman (1:17:00.420)

when we get back to a position of safety.

Lex Fridman (1:17:03.180)

Is it possible to do that?

Lex Fridman (1:17:04.420)

So I just have kind of anecdotal evidence for myself.

Andrew Bustamante (1:17:09.260)

I really try to be the exact same person in all conditions,

Lex Fridman (1:17:12.300)

which makes it very easy.

Andrew Bustamante (1:17:15.100)

Like if you're not lying,

Lex Fridman (1:17:17.220)

it makes it very easy to, first of all, to exist,

Lex Fridman (1:17:21.340)

but also to communicate a kind of authenticity

Lex Fridman (1:17:23.900)

and a genuineness, which I think is really important.

Andrew Bustamante (1:17:26.460)

Like trust and integrity around trust

Lex Fridman (1:17:29.180)

is extremely important to me.

Andrew Bustamante (1:17:30.420)

It's the thing that opens doors

Lex Fridman (1:17:32.380)

and maintains relationships.

Lex Fridman (1:17:34.780)

And I tend to think, like when I was in Ukraine,

Lex Fridman (1:17:39.380)

so many doors just opened to the very high security areas

Lex Fridman (1:17:45.140)

and everywhere else too.

Lex Fridman (1:17:46.120)

Like I've just interacted with some incredible people

Andrew Bustamante (1:17:48.940)

without any kind of concerns.

Lex Fridman (1:17:51.780)

You know, who is this guy?

Lex Fridman (1:17:52.980)

Is he gonna spread it?

Lex Fridman (1:17:54.180)

You know, all that kind of stuff.

Lex Fridman (1:17:55.180)

And I tend to believe that you're able

Lex Fridman (1:17:58.180)

to communicate a trustworthiness somehow

Andrew Bustamante (1:18:00.860)

if you just are who you are.

Lex Fridman (1:18:05.060)

And I think, I suppose method actors

Andrew Bustamante (1:18:07.180)

are trying to achieve that by becoming something

Lex Fridman (1:18:09.300)

and they can, I just feel like there is very subtle cues

Andrew Bustamante (1:18:14.300)

that are extremely difficult to fake.

Lex Fridman (1:18:17.860)

Like you really have to become that person, be that person.

Lex Fridman (1:18:22.060)

But you're saying as a CIA agent,

Lex Fridman (1:18:25.060)

you have to remember that you are there

Andrew Bustamante (1:18:27.720)

to collect information.

Lex Fridman (1:18:29.100)

Do you think that gives you away?

Lex Fridman (1:18:31.100)

So one of the flaws in your argument

Lex Fridman (1:18:34.780)

is that you keep referring to how you feel.

Andrew Bustamante (1:18:38.200)

I feel this, I feel that, I feel like this,

Lex Fridman (1:18:40.420)

I feel like that.

Andrew Bustamante (1:18:41.600)

That feeling is a predictable character trait

Lex Fridman (1:18:45.860)

of all human beings.

Andrew Bustamante (1:18:46.760)

It's a pink matter, we call it pink matter.

Lex Fridman (1:18:49.060)

It's a cognitive trait.

Andrew Bustamante (1:18:52.580)

You are not alone in trusting your feelings.

Lex Fridman (1:18:55.020)

All people trust their feelings.

Lex Fridman (1:18:56.780)

But because what CIA teaches us

Lex Fridman (1:18:59.620)

is how to systematically create artificial relationships

Andrew Bustamante (1:19:04.340)

where we're the one in control of the source

Lex Fridman (1:19:06.380)

that is giving us intelligence.

Lex Fridman (1:19:08.440)

And the core element to being able to control

Lex Fridman (1:19:11.680)

a relationship is understanding

Andrew Bustamante (1:19:13.020)

the pink matter truth of feelings.

Lex Fridman (1:19:16.840)

What all people feel becomes their point of view

Andrew Bustamante (1:19:19.900)

on what reality is.

Lex Fridman (1:19:21.460)

So when you understand and you learn how to manipulate

Lex Fridman (1:19:23.380)

what people feel, then you can essentially direct them

Lex Fridman (1:19:26.320)

to feel any way you want them to feel.

Lex Fridman (1:19:28.340)

So if you want them to feel like they can trust you,

Lex Fridman (1:19:30.800)

you can make them feel that way.

Andrew Bustamante (1:19:32.140)

If you want them to feel like you're a good guy

Lex Fridman (1:19:34.240)

or a bad guy, if you want them to feel like

Andrew Bustamante (1:19:36.400)

they should give you secrets even though their government

Lex Fridman (1:19:38.180)

tells them not to, you can do that.

Andrew Bustamante (1:19:40.020)

There are men who make women feel like they love them

Lex Fridman (1:19:43.220)

and just so that the woman will sleep with them.

Andrew Bustamante (1:19:45.180)

There are women who make men feel like they love them

Lex Fridman (1:19:47.460)

just so the men will give them their money.

Andrew Bustamante (1:19:49.620)

Manipulation is a core behavioral trait

Lex Fridman (1:19:52.860)

of all the human species because we all understand

Andrew Bustamante (1:19:55.820)

to some level how powerful feelings are,

Lex Fridman (1:19:58.200)

but feelings are not the same thing

Andrew Bustamante (1:19:59.540)

as logical, rational thought.

Lex Fridman (1:20:01.220)

They're two different sides of the brain.

Lex Fridman (1:20:03.400)

What CIA teaches us how to do is systematically tap into

Lex Fridman (1:20:07.500)

the right side, emotional side of the brain

Lex Fridman (1:20:10.080)

so that we can quickly get past all of the stuff

Lex Fridman (1:20:13.660)

you were just saying, all of the,

Andrew Bustamante (1:20:15.420)

well, don't you have to be convincing

Lex Fridman (1:20:16.700)

and don't you have to really know your story

Lex Fridman (1:20:18.140)

and don't you have to be able to defend it?

Lex Fridman (1:20:20.380)

Don't you have to have authenticity

Lex Fridman (1:20:21.640)

and don't you have to have genuine feelings?

Lex Fridman (1:20:25.820)

Yes, all of those things are true

Andrew Bustamante (1:20:27.600)

if you're having a genuine relationship,

Lex Fridman (1:20:29.820)

but in an artificial relationship,

Andrew Bustamante (1:20:31.300)

there's ways to bypass all of that

Lex Fridman (1:20:32.800)

and get right to the heart of making someone

Andrew Bustamante (1:20:34.280)

feel comfortable and safe.

Lex Fridman (1:20:35.400)

I guess the question I'm asking

Lex Fridman (1:20:37.680)

and the thing I was implying is that creating

Lex Fridman (1:20:41.500)

an artificial relationship is an extremely difficult skill

Andrew Bustamante (1:20:45.480)

to accomplish the level, like how good I am at being me

Lex Fridman (1:20:51.840)

and creating a feeling in another person that I create.

Andrew Bustamante (1:20:56.340)

For you to do that artificially,

Lex Fridman (1:20:58.260)

that's gotta be, you gotta be,

Andrew Bustamante (1:21:00.400)

my sense is you gotta be really damn good at that kind of thing.

Lex Fridman (1:21:03.700)

I would venture to say, I mean,

Andrew Bustamante (1:21:08.060)

I don't know how to measure how difficult the thing is,

Lex Fridman (1:21:10.100)

but especially when you're communicating with people

Andrew Bustamante (1:21:13.980)

whose job depends on forming trusting relationships,

Lex Fridman (1:21:18.640)

they're gonna smell bullshit.

Lex Fridman (1:21:21.640)

And to get past that bullshit detector is tough.

Lex Fridman (1:21:27.500)

It's a tough skill.

Andrew Bustamante (1:21:28.420)

Well, it's interesting.

Lex Fridman (1:21:29.260)

So I would say that.

Andrew Bustamante (1:21:30.980)

Or maybe I'm wrong actually on that.

Lex Fridman (1:21:32.700)

I would say that once you understand the system,

Andrew Bustamante (1:21:34.640)

it's not that hard.

Lex Fridman (1:21:35.540)

It makes a lot of sense.

Lex Fridman (1:21:37.060)

But I would also say that to your exact point,

Lex Fridman (1:21:39.620)

you are right that people smell bullshit.

Andrew Bustamante (1:21:42.180)

People smell bullshit.

Lex Fridman (1:21:43.780)

But here's the thing.

Andrew Bustamante (1:21:45.120)

If you come in smelling like goat shit,

Lex Fridman (1:21:48.900)

you still smell like shit, but you don't smell like bullshit.

Lex Fridman (1:21:51.860)

So they don't count you out right away.

Lex Fridman (1:21:53.820)

And if you come in smelling like rotten tomatoes

Andrew Bustamante (1:21:57.100)

or if you come in smelling like lavender

Lex Fridman (1:21:59.300)

or if you come in smelling like vanilla

Andrew Bustamante (1:22:00.580)

or if you come in without any smell at all,

Lex Fridman (1:22:02.460)

all that matters is that you don't smell like bullshit.

Andrew Bustamante (1:22:05.700)

Here's the thing that's one of the secret sauces of CIA.

Lex Fridman (1:22:10.540)

When you look and act like a spy, people think you're a spy.

Andrew Bustamante (1:22:14.200)

If you look and act in any other way,

Lex Fridman (1:22:16.080)

you know what they never ever think you are?

Andrew Bustamante (1:22:19.620)

A spy.

Lex Fridman (1:22:21.060)

They might think you're an idiot.

Andrew Bustamante (1:22:22.220)

They might think you're trailer trash.

Lex Fridman (1:22:24.940)

They might think that you're a migrant worker,

Lex Fridman (1:22:27.700)

but they never think you're a spy.

Lex Fridman (1:22:30.820)

And that lesson in everyday life is immensely powerful.

Andrew Bustamante (1:22:35.540)

If you're trying to take your boss's job,

Lex Fridman (1:22:39.700)

as long as you don't ever look like the employee

Andrew Bustamante (1:22:41.740)

who's trying to take the boss's job,

Lex Fridman (1:22:43.300)

the boss is focused on all the employees

Andrew Bustamante (1:22:44.860)

who are trying to take his job.

Lex Fridman (1:22:46.640)

Everybody's prioritizing whether they know it or not.

Andrew Bustamante (1:22:48.980)

The goal is to just not be the one that they're targeting.

Lex Fridman (1:22:51.820)

Target them without them knowing you're targeting them.

Lex Fridman (1:22:54.100)

So people just, when they meet you, they put you in a bin.

Lex Fridman (1:22:58.180)

And if you want to avoid being put in a particular bin,

Andrew Bustamante (1:23:01.020)

just don't act like the person that would be,

Lex Fridman (1:23:04.060)

just show some kind of characteristics

Andrew Bustamante (1:23:06.180)

that bin you in some other way.

Lex Fridman (1:23:07.420)

Exactly right.

Andrew Bustamante (1:23:08.260)

You have to be in a bin.

Lex Fridman (1:23:09.540)

Just choose the bin.

Andrew Bustamante (1:23:10.980)

All right.

Lex Fridman (1:23:12.300)

So you, knowing these methods,

Andrew Bustamante (1:23:16.860)

when you talk to people, especially in civilian life,

Lex Fridman (1:23:19.140)

how do you know who's lying to you and not?

Andrew Bustamante (1:23:22.740)

That gets to be more into the trained skill side of things.

Lex Fridman (1:23:26.620)

There's body cues, there's micro expressions.

Andrew Bustamante (1:23:29.920)

I'm not a big fan of,

Lex Fridman (1:23:31.500)

I don't believe that micro expressions alone do anything.

Andrew Bustamante (1:23:33.940)

I also don't believe that micro expressions

Lex Fridman (1:23:35.660)

without an effective baseline do anything.

Lex Fridman (1:23:37.840)

So don't for a second think that I'm,

Lex Fridman (1:23:40.180)

all the people out there pitching

Andrew Bustamante (1:23:41.620)

that you can tell if someone's lying to you

Lex Fridman (1:23:43.080)

just by looking at their face, it's all baloney.

Andrew Bustamante (1:23:46.080)

In my world, that's baloney.

Lex Fridman (1:23:47.660)

Like the way you move your eyes or something like that.

Andrew Bustamante (1:23:49.980)

Without knowing a baseline, without knowing.

Lex Fridman (1:23:51.820)

For that individual. For that individual.

Andrew Bustamante (1:23:53.500)

Then you actually don't know.

Lex Fridman (1:23:54.420)

And an individual's baseline is based on education,

Lex Fridman (1:23:56.540)

culture, life experience, you name it, right?

Lex Fridman (1:23:58.360)

So this is huge.

Lex Fridman (1:24:00.160)

But when you combine facial expressions

Lex Fridman (1:24:03.480)

with body movements, body language, nonverbal cues,

Lex Fridman (1:24:06.900)

and you add on top of that effective elicitation techniques

Lex Fridman (1:24:10.540)

that you are in control of,

Andrew Bustamante (1:24:12.100)

now you have a more robust platform

Lex Fridman (1:24:15.320)

to tell if someone's lying to you.

Lex Fridman (1:24:16.500)

So there's like a set of like interrogation trajectories

Lex Fridman (1:24:22.460)

you can go down that can help you figure out a person.

Andrew Bustamante (1:24:26.200)

Technically they're interview, interview concepts.

Lex Fridman (1:24:30.420)

Correct.

Andrew Bustamante (1:24:31.260)

Because an interrogation,

Lex Fridman (1:24:32.260)

an interrogation is something very different

Andrew Bustamante (1:24:33.700)

than an interview.

Lex Fridman (1:24:34.520)

And in the world of professionals,

Andrew Bustamante (1:24:36.160)

an interrogation is very different.

Lex Fridman (1:24:37.380)

What's the difference?

Lex Fridman (1:24:38.300)

The nature of how relaxed the thing is or what?

Lex Fridman (1:24:40.860)

So in an interrogation, there's a clear pattern of dominance.

Andrew Bustamante (1:24:44.100)

There's no equality.

Lex Fridman (1:24:45.620)

Also, there's no escape.

Andrew Bustamante (1:24:47.260)

You are there until the interrogator is done with you.

Lex Fridman (1:24:49.900)

Anybody who's ever been reprimanded by mom and dad

Andrew Bustamante (1:24:51.820)

knows what an interrogation feels like.

Lex Fridman (1:24:53.160)

Anybody who's ever been called into the principal's office

Andrew Bustamante (1:24:54.860)

or the boss's office,

Lex Fridman (1:24:55.980)

that's what interrogation feels like.

Andrew Bustamante (1:24:57.220)

You don't leave until the boss says you can leave.

Lex Fridman (1:24:59.580)

And you're there to say,

Andrew Bustamante (1:25:00.420)

it's to answer questions the boss asks questions.

Lex Fridman (1:25:02.840)

An interview is an equal exchange of ideas.

Andrew Bustamante (1:25:05.700)

You are in control of this interview, for sure.

Lex Fridman (1:25:09.660)

But if we were having coffee,

Andrew Bustamante (1:25:11.540)

I could take control if I wanted to take control.

Lex Fridman (1:25:13.420)

If I wanted to ask you personal questions, I would.

Andrew Bustamante (1:25:15.140)

If I wanted to talk to you about your background, I could.

Lex Fridman (1:25:17.620)

Why am I in control of this interview exactly?

Andrew Bustamante (1:25:19.420)

Because the person in control

Lex Fridman (1:25:20.580)

is the person asking questions.

Andrew Bustamante (1:25:22.100)

I'm sitting here, as you've spoken about,

Lex Fridman (1:25:26.900)

my power here is I'm the quiet one listening.

Andrew Bustamante (1:25:30.820)

You're exactly right.

Lex Fridman (1:25:31.660)

Guess where this conversation goes?

Andrew Bustamante (1:25:33.740)

Anywhere you choose to take it,

Lex Fridman (1:25:35.140)

because you're the one asking questions.

Andrew Bustamante (1:25:36.620)

Every time I answer a question,

Lex Fridman (1:25:38.300)

I am creating a pattern of obedience to you,

Andrew Bustamante (1:25:41.680)

which subliminally, subconsciously,

Lex Fridman (1:25:43.300)

makes me that much more apt to answer your questions.

Andrew Bustamante (1:25:45.780)

Of course, you can always turn and start asking me questions.

Lex Fridman (1:25:48.820)

But you're saying that through conversation,

Andrew Bustamante (1:25:53.900)

you can call it interviewing,

Lex Fridman (1:25:55.540)

you can start to see cracks

Andrew Bustamante (1:26:02.740)

in the story of the person

Lex Fridman (1:26:05.580)

and the degree to which they exaggerate or lie

Andrew Bustamante (1:26:08.500)

or to see how much they can be trusted, that kind of stuff.

Lex Fridman (1:26:13.060)

What I'm saying is that through a conversation,

Andrew Bustamante (1:26:15.020)

you develop a baseline.

Lex Fridman (1:26:16.740)

Even just in the first part of our conversation,

Andrew Bustamante (1:26:20.140)

I've been able to create some baseline elements about you.

Lex Fridman (1:26:23.140)

You've been able to create baseline elements about me.

Andrew Bustamante (1:26:25.580)

Maybe they're just not a friend of mine.

Lex Fridman (1:26:27.620)

From those baselines,

Andrew Bustamante (1:26:28.900)

now we can push through more intentional questions

Lex Fridman (1:26:33.060)

to test whether or not the person is being truthful

Andrew Bustamante (1:26:36.980)

because they're operating within their baseline,

Lex Fridman (1:26:39.100)

or if you are triggering sensitivities

Andrew Bustamante (1:26:42.480)

outside of their baseline,

Lex Fridman (1:26:43.480)

and then you can start to see their tells.

Andrew Bustamante (1:26:45.460)

That's fascinating.

Lex Fridman (1:26:46.300)

Yeah, baseline, even the tells, right?

Andrew Bustamante (1:26:49.460)

The eye contact.

Lex Fridman (1:26:50.300)

You've probably already formed a baseline

Andrew Bustamante (1:26:52.320)

that I have trouble making eye contact.

Lex Fridman (1:26:54.580)

And so if you ask me difficult questions

Lex Fridman (1:26:56.900)

and I'm not making eye contact,

Lex Fridman (1:26:58.300)

maybe that's not a good signal of me lying or whatever.

Andrew Bustamante (1:27:01.140)

Correct.

Lex Fridman (1:27:01.980)

Because I always have trouble making eye contact,

Andrew Bustamante (1:27:04.140)

stuff like that.

Lex Fridman (1:27:04.980)

That's really fascinating.

Lex Fridman (1:27:06.020)

The majority of your eye movement is to the right?

Lex Fridman (1:27:07.740)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (1:27:08.580)

Your right, my left, right?

Lex Fridman (1:27:10.300)

Which is usually someone who's,

Andrew Bustamante (1:27:11.540)

if you ask micro expressionists,

Lex Fridman (1:27:13.460)

that's someone who's referencing fact.

Andrew Bustamante (1:27:15.620)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (1:27:16.460)

That's not necessarily what's happening for you

Andrew Bustamante (1:27:18.020)

because you're pulling concepts out of the air.

Lex Fridman (1:27:19.780)

So it's also a place

Andrew Bustamante (1:27:20.620)

where you reference something other than fact.

Lex Fridman (1:27:22.060)

It's a place for you to find creativity.

Lex Fridman (1:27:24.020)

So if I just thought that you were lying

Lex Fridman (1:27:25.420)

because you look up and to the right, I would be wrong.

Andrew Bustamante (1:27:28.020)

That's so fascinating.

Lex Fridman (1:27:29.300)

And a lot of that has to do with like habits

Andrew Bustamante (1:27:31.340)

that are formed and all those kinds of things,

Lex Fridman (1:27:33.100)

or maybe some right hand, left hand type of situation.

Andrew Bustamante (1:27:35.940)

Right eye dominance.

Lex Fridman (1:27:36.860)

Yeah, right eye dominance.

Andrew Bustamante (1:27:37.700)

It's gonna make you look to the right.

Lex Fridman (1:27:39.060)

Is this a science or an art?

Andrew Bustamante (1:27:40.800)

It's a bit of both.

Lex Fridman (1:27:41.780)

I would say that like all good art,

Andrew Bustamante (1:27:44.180)

art is taught from a foundation of skills.

Lex Fridman (1:27:47.460)

And those skills are played,

Andrew Bustamante (1:27:51.060)

are taught in a very structured manner.

Lex Fridman (1:27:53.660)

And then the way that you use the skills after that,

Andrew Bustamante (1:27:57.300)

that's more of the artistic grace.

Lex Fridman (1:27:59.460)

So I've always called espionage an art.

Andrew Bustamante (1:28:01.780)

Spying is an art.

Lex Fridman (1:28:03.500)

Being able to hack human beings is an art,

Lex Fridman (1:28:06.040)

but it's all based in a foundation of science.

Lex Fridman (1:28:08.260)

You still have to learn how to mix the color palette

Lex Fridman (1:28:10.300)

and use certain brushes.

Lex Fridman (1:28:11.660)

Do you think of that as a kind of the study

Lex Fridman (1:28:16.060)

of human psychology?

Lex Fridman (1:28:17.540)

Is that what a psychologist does or a psychiatrist?

Lex Fridman (1:28:20.460)

What from this process have you learned about human nature?

Lex Fridman (1:28:25.700)

Human nature.

Andrew Bustamante (1:28:26.660)

I mean, I suppose the answer to that could be a book,

Lex Fridman (1:28:30.060)

but it probably will be a book.

Andrew Bustamante (1:28:32.260)

I'll save you that, yeah.

Lex Fridman (1:28:33.300)

But is there things that are surprising about human nature,

Lex Fridman (1:28:38.300)

surprising to us civilians that you could speak to?

Lex Fridman (1:28:43.440)

Yes, one thing is extremely surprising about human nature,

Andrew Bustamante (1:28:47.900)

which is funny, because that's not the answer

Lex Fridman (1:28:49.240)

I would have said.

Lex Fridman (1:28:50.080)

So I'm glad that you clarified this specific question.

Lex Fridman (1:28:53.960)

The thing that's surprising about human nature

Andrew Bustamante (1:28:55.900)

is that human beings long, like in their soul,

Lex Fridman (1:29:02.780)

there's like a painful longing to be with other people.

Lex Fridman (1:29:06.780)

And that's really surprising,

Lex Fridman (1:29:08.700)

because we all wanna pretend like we're strong.

Andrew Bustamante (1:29:11.380)

We all wanna pretend like we're independent.

Lex Fridman (1:29:14.020)

We all wanna pretend like we are the masters of our destiny.

Lex Fridman (1:29:18.760)

But what's truly consistent in all people

Lex Fridman (1:29:22.100)

is this longing to commune with others like us.

Andrew Bustamante (1:29:29.260)

My more practical answer about what I've learned

Lex Fridman (1:29:33.140)

to be the truth is that human nature is predictable.

Lex Fridman (1:29:36.460)

And that predictability is what gives people

Lex Fridman (1:29:38.860)

an incredible advantage over other people.

Lex Fridman (1:29:41.760)

But that's not the surprising piece.

Lex Fridman (1:29:43.420)

I mean, even when CIA taught me

Andrew Bustamante (1:29:45.060)

that human nature is predictable, it just made sense.

Lex Fridman (1:29:47.420)

I was like, oh yeah, that makes sense.

Lex Fridman (1:29:49.020)

But what I never ever anticipated was

Lex Fridman (1:29:52.620)

no matter where I've been in the world,

Andrew Bustamante (1:29:54.020)

no matter who I've talked to,

Lex Fridman (1:29:54.980)

no matter what socioeconomic bracket is that longing,

Andrew Bustamante (1:29:59.260)

man, it hurts.

Lex Fridman (1:30:00.980)

Loneliness sucks, and togetherness feels good,

Andrew Bustamante (1:30:04.460)

even if you're together with someone

Lex Fridman (1:30:05.800)

you know isn't the right person.

Andrew Bustamante (1:30:07.220)

It still feels better than being alone.

Lex Fridman (1:30:09.260)

I mean, that's such a deep truth you speak to,

Lex Fridman (1:30:11.460)

and I could talk about that for a long time.

Lex Fridman (1:30:15.020)

There is, I mean, through these conversations in general,

Andrew Bustamante (1:30:18.580)

whether it's being recorded or not,

Lex Fridman (1:30:21.900)

I hunger to discover in the other person that longing.

Andrew Bustamante (1:30:27.060)

You strip away the other things,

Lex Fridman (1:30:29.020)

and then you share in the longing for that connection.

Lex Fridman (1:30:32.300)

And I particularly also have detected that in people

Lex Fridman (1:30:38.620)

from all walks of life, including people

Andrew Bustamante (1:30:42.180)

that others might identify as evil or hard,

Lex Fridman (1:30:47.940)

as completely cold, it's there.

Andrew Bustamante (1:30:52.600)

It's there.

Lex Fridman (1:30:53.440)

They've hardened themselves in their search,

Lex Fridman (1:30:56.980)

and who knows what dark place their brain is in,

Lex Fridman (1:30:59.140)

their heart is in, but that longing is still there.

Andrew Bustamante (1:31:03.620)

Even if it's an ember, it's there.

Lex Fridman (1:31:06.260)

It's the reason why in World War I and World War II,

Andrew Bustamante (1:31:11.120)

you know, enemy combatants still shared cigarettes

Lex Fridman (1:31:13.900)

on the front lines during periods of holidays

Andrew Bustamante (1:31:17.380)

or bad weather or whatever else,

Lex Fridman (1:31:18.940)

because that human connection, man, it triumphs over all.

Andrew Bustamante (1:31:22.900)

See, that's in part of what I refer to when I say love,

Lex Fridman (1:31:27.900)

because I feel like if political leaders

Lex Fridman (1:31:31.980)

and people in conflict at the small scale

Lex Fridman (1:31:34.740)

and the large scale were able to tune into that longing,

Andrew Bustamante (1:31:42.300)

to seek in each other that basic longing

Lex Fridman (1:31:45.340)

for human connection, a lot of problems could be solved.

Lex Fridman (1:31:49.460)

But of course, it's difficult,

Lex Fridman (1:31:52.980)

because it's a game of chicken.

Andrew Bustamante (1:31:56.000)

It's if you open yourself up to reveal

Lex Fridman (1:31:59.640)

that longing for connection with others,

Andrew Bustamante (1:32:02.600)

people can hurt you.

Lex Fridman (1:32:03.760)

Well, I would go a step farther,

Lex Fridman (1:32:04.920)

and I would say that taking the connection away,

Lex Fridman (1:32:08.920)

punishing, penalizing people by removing the connection

Andrew Bustamante (1:32:14.760)

is a powerful tool, and that's what we see.

Lex Fridman (1:32:18.120)

That's why we send people to jail.

Andrew Bustamante (1:32:20.000)

That's why we put economic sanctions on countries.

Lex Fridman (1:32:22.320)

That's why we ground our children

Lex Fridman (1:32:24.240)

and send them to their rooms.

Lex Fridman (1:32:25.840)

We are penalizing them.

Andrew Bustamante (1:32:27.560)

Whether we know it or not, we're using punitive damage

Lex Fridman (1:32:31.400)

by taking away that basic human connection,

Andrew Bustamante (1:32:33.640)

that longing for community.

Lex Fridman (1:32:36.440)

What was your recruitment process and training process

Lex Fridman (1:32:40.440)

and things you could speak to in the CIA?

Lex Fridman (1:32:46.140)

As I was leaving the Air Force, all that was on my mind,

Andrew Bustamante (1:32:50.000)

I don't know what you were like at 27,

Lex Fridman (1:32:52.560)

but I was a total tip shit at 27.

Andrew Bustamante (1:32:54.960)

I'm not much better now at 42, but.

Lex Fridman (1:32:57.480)

You and me, Bill.

Andrew Bustamante (1:32:58.320)

Yeah, but I was like, I just wanted to be anything

Lex Fridman (1:33:04.960)

other than a military officer,

Lex Fridman (1:33:06.920)

so I was actually in the process of applying

Lex Fridman (1:33:09.480)

to the Peace Corps through this thing called the internet,

Andrew Bustamante (1:33:12.320)

which was still fairly rudimentary in 2007.

Lex Fridman (1:33:16.000)

I had a computer lab that we went to,

Lex Fridman (1:33:18.680)

and it had 10 computers in it,

Lex Fridman (1:33:20.160)

and you had to log in and log out,

Lex Fridman (1:33:21.460)

and slow internet and everything else,

Lex Fridman (1:33:22.960)

but anyways, I was filling out an online application

Andrew Bustamante (1:33:25.320)

to go work in the US Peace Corps.

Lex Fridman (1:33:28.040)

I wanted to grow my hair out.

Andrew Bustamante (1:33:29.980)

I wanted to stop wearing shoes that were shiny.

Lex Fridman (1:33:33.120)

I wanted to meet a hippie chick

Lex Fridman (1:33:35.120)

and have hippie babies in the wild

Lex Fridman (1:33:37.320)

teaching Nigerian children how to read,

Lex Fridman (1:33:40.480)

so that was the path I was going down,

Lex Fridman (1:33:42.580)

and as I filled in all of my details,

Andrew Bustamante (1:33:45.520)

there came this page that popped up,

Lex Fridman (1:33:47.360)

and it was this blinking red page,

Lex Fridman (1:33:48.820)

and it said, stop here.

Lex Fridman (1:33:50.400)

You may qualify for other government positions.

Andrew Bustamante (1:33:53.280)

If you're willing to put your application

Lex Fridman (1:33:55.460)

on hold for 72 hours,

Andrew Bustamante (1:33:57.480)

that gives us a chance to reach out to you,

Lex Fridman (1:33:59.800)

so again, 27 year old dipshit.

Andrew Bustamante (1:34:02.280)

I was like, sure, I'll put myself on hold

Lex Fridman (1:34:05.080)

if I might qualify for other government opportunities,

Lex Fridman (1:34:07.440)

and then about a day later, I got a phone call

Lex Fridman (1:34:09.520)

from an almost unlisted number.

Andrew Bustamante (1:34:11.880)

It just said 703, which was very strange to see

Lex Fridman (1:34:15.020)

on my flip phone at the time, just one 703 area code,

Lex Fridman (1:34:18.640)

and I picked it up, and it was a person

Lex Fridman (1:34:23.360)

from Northern Virginia asking me

Andrew Bustamante (1:34:25.160)

if I would be telling me that I was qualified

Lex Fridman (1:34:27.120)

for a position in national security,

Lex Fridman (1:34:29.540)

and if I would be interested, they'll pay for my ticket

Lex Fridman (1:34:32.160)

and fly me up to Langley, Virginia.

Andrew Bustamante (1:34:35.100)

They didn't say CIA.

Lex Fridman (1:34:36.560)

They said Langley.

Andrew Bustamante (1:34:37.920)

I put one on one together, and I was like,

Lex Fridman (1:34:39.320)

maybe this is CIA, like, how cool is this?

Andrew Bustamante (1:34:43.040)

Or maybe this is all make believe,

Lex Fridman (1:34:44.400)

and this is totally fake, so either way,

Andrew Bustamante (1:34:46.160)

it doesn't hurt me at all to say yes.

Lex Fridman (1:34:47.600)

They already have my phone number, so yes, yes, yes,

Lex Fridman (1:34:50.480)

and then I remember thinking,

Lex Fridman (1:34:52.080)

there's no way that happened, and this isn't real,

Lex Fridman (1:34:54.760)

and then a day later, I got FedEx

Lex Fridman (1:34:57.560)

or an overnight delivery of an airplane ticket

Lex Fridman (1:35:00.160)

and a hotel reservation and a rental car reservation,

Lex Fridman (1:35:03.240)

and then I just kept doing the next thing,

Andrew Bustamante (1:35:05.720)

which I found out later on is a form of control.

Lex Fridman (1:35:07.880)

You just do the next thing that they tell you to do,

Lex Fridman (1:35:10.560)

and then before I knew it, I was interviewing

Lex Fridman (1:35:12.480)

in a nondescript building with a person

Andrew Bustamante (1:35:15.040)

who only told me their first name for a position

Lex Fridman (1:35:17.760)

with the National Clandestine Service.

Lex Fridman (1:35:19.360)

So you never really got a chance to think about it

Lex Fridman (1:35:21.280)

because there's small steps along the way,

Lex Fridman (1:35:23.080)

and it kind of just leads you,

Lex Fridman (1:35:26.360)

and maybe your personality is such that.

Andrew Bustamante (1:35:29.920)

That's an adventure.

Lex Fridman (1:35:30.800)

It's an adventure, and because it's one step at a time,

Andrew Bustamante (1:35:34.320)

you don't necessarily see the negative consequences

Lex Fridman (1:35:36.440)

of the adventure.

Andrew Bustamante (1:35:37.280)

You don't think about any of that.

Lex Fridman (1:35:38.980)

You're just stepping into the adventure.

Lex Fridman (1:35:41.680)

And it's easy.

Lex Fridman (1:35:42.520)

There's no work involved.

Andrew Bustamante (1:35:43.680)

Somebody else is doing all the work,

Lex Fridman (1:35:44.980)

telling me where to be and when.

Andrew Bustamante (1:35:46.400)

It's a lot like basic training in the military.

Lex Fridman (1:35:48.320)

Anybody who's ever been through basic training

Andrew Bustamante (1:35:49.880)

will tell you they hated the first few days,

Lex Fridman (1:35:52.240)

and then by the end, it was really comforting

Andrew Bustamante (1:35:54.540)

because you just did what you were told.

Lex Fridman (1:35:56.440)

They told you when to eat.

Andrew Bustamante (1:35:57.540)

They made the decision of what to eat,

Lex Fridman (1:35:59.260)

and then you just, you marched when they told you to march,

Andrew Bustamante (1:36:01.280)

shined your shoes when they told you to shine your shoes.

Lex Fridman (1:36:03.040)

Human beings love being told what to do.

Lex Fridman (1:36:06.360)

What about the training process

Lex Fridman (1:36:08.760)

for becoming a covert CIA agent?

Andrew Bustamante (1:36:14.920)

Yeah, so the interview process is.

Lex Fridman (1:36:19.000)

Yeah, the interview process, too.

Lex Fridman (1:36:21.080)

How rigorous was that?

Lex Fridman (1:36:22.640)

It was very rigorous.

Andrew Bustamante (1:36:23.840)

That was where it became difficult.

Lex Fridman (1:36:26.100)

Everything up to the first interview was easy,

Lex Fridman (1:36:28.620)

but there's three interviews,

Lex Fridman (1:36:30.320)

and some people are lucky enough

Andrew Bustamante (1:36:31.600)

to have four or five interviews if something goes wrong

Lex Fridman (1:36:34.580)

or something goes awry with the first few interviews.

Lex Fridman (1:36:37.640)

And again, this might be dated from what I went through,

Lex Fridman (1:36:40.000)

but during the interview process is when they start,

Andrew Bustamante (1:36:43.400)

they do your psychological evaluations.

Lex Fridman (1:36:45.600)

They do your, they do personality assessments.

Andrew Bustamante (1:36:51.080)

They do skills assessments.

Lex Fridman (1:36:53.080)

They'll start sending you back to wherever you're living

Andrew Bustamante (1:36:56.640)

with assignments, not intel assignments,

Lex Fridman (1:36:59.840)

but actual homework assignments.

Andrew Bustamante (1:37:02.700)

Write an essay about three parts of the world

Lex Fridman (1:37:05.460)

that you think will be most impacted

Andrew Bustamante (1:37:08.080)

in the next three to five years,

Lex Fridman (1:37:09.400)

or prioritize the top three strategic priorities

Andrew Bustamante (1:37:12.760)

for the United States and put it into 250 words

Lex Fridman (1:37:16.440)

or 2,500 words and whatever else,

Andrew Bustamante (1:37:19.260)

double spaced in this font, yada, yada, yada,

Lex Fridman (1:37:21.200)

like super specific stuff.

Andrew Bustamante (1:37:22.520)

It's kind of stressful,

Lex Fridman (1:37:24.040)

but it's just like going back to college again.

Lex Fridman (1:37:26.040)

So you go through all of those acts,

Lex Fridman (1:37:27.800)

and then you submit this stuff to some PO box

Andrew Bustamante (1:37:30.640)

that doesn't have anybody that's ever gonna respond to you,

Lex Fridman (1:37:33.120)

and then you hope.

Andrew Bustamante (1:37:34.240)

You just send it into the ether,

Lex Fridman (1:37:36.280)

and you hope that you sent it right.

Andrew Bustamante (1:37:38.400)

You hope that you wrote well enough.

Lex Fridman (1:37:40.080)

You hope that your assessment was right,

Andrew Bustamante (1:37:42.440)

whatever else it might be,

Lex Fridman (1:37:43.320)

and then eventually get another phone call that says,

Andrew Bustamante (1:37:45.720)

hey, we received your package.

Lex Fridman (1:37:46.800)

You've been moved to the next level of interview,

Lex Fridman (1:37:49.520)

and now we need you to go to this other nondescript building

Lex Fridman (1:37:52.080)

in this other nondescript city,

Lex Fridman (1:37:53.560)

and then you start meeting.

Lex Fridman (1:37:55.640)

You start sitting in waiting rooms

Andrew Bustamante (1:37:59.520)

with other groups of people

Lex Fridman (1:38:00.540)

who are at the same phase of interview with you,

Andrew Bustamante (1:38:02.660)

which were some of the coolest experiences

Lex Fridman (1:38:04.520)

that I remember still.

Andrew Bustamante (1:38:05.880)

One of my best friends to this day,

Lex Fridman (1:38:07.360)

who I don't get to talk to because he's still undercover,

Andrew Bustamante (1:38:10.240)

is a guy I met during those interview processes,

Lex Fridman (1:38:12.240)

and I was like, oh, we met.

Andrew Bustamante (1:38:14.120)

I saw what he was wearing.

Lex Fridman (1:38:14.960)

He saw what I was wearing.

Andrew Bustamante (1:38:16.800)

I was brown.

Lex Fridman (1:38:17.620)

So you immediately connected,

Lex Fridman (1:38:18.460)

and you liked the people there.

Lex Fridman (1:38:19.760)

Close.

Andrew Bustamante (1:38:20.600)

More like we immediately judge each other,

Lex Fridman (1:38:22.600)

because we're all untrained.

Lex Fridman (1:38:24.080)

So he looked at me, and he was like,

Lex Fridman (1:38:26.160)

brown dude with crazy hair, and I was wearing,

Andrew Bustamante (1:38:28.360)

dude, I was dressed like a total ass.

Lex Fridman (1:38:29.780)

I was dressed in a clubbing shirt.

Andrew Bustamante (1:38:32.720)

I don't know why I thought it would be a good idea

Lex Fridman (1:38:33.880)

to go to a CIA interview in a clubbing shirt

Andrew Bustamante (1:38:36.480)

with my buttons unbuttoned down to here.

Lex Fridman (1:38:39.180)

And he was like, yeah, you were really,

Andrew Bustamante (1:38:40.560)

after we got in, he was like,

Lex Fridman (1:38:42.160)

yeah, dude, you were always really cool to talk to,

Lex Fridman (1:38:43.760)

but I was like, there's no way that idiot's getting in.

Lex Fridman (1:38:46.760)

And I remember looking at him and being like,

Andrew Bustamante (1:38:48.020)

dude, you were just another white guy in a black suit.

Lex Fridman (1:38:50.200)

They're not looking for you, but here you are.

Lex Fridman (1:38:52.560)

So it was just, those kinds of things were so interesting,

Lex Fridman (1:38:54.440)

because we were totally wrong

Andrew Bustamante (1:38:55.400)

about what CIA was looking for.

Lex Fridman (1:38:56.840)

Until you're in, you have no idea what they're looking for.

Lex Fridman (1:38:59.920)

And you're just shooting in the dark.

Lex Fridman (1:39:02.640)

Did they have you do like a lie detector test?

Andrew Bustamante (1:39:05.880)

Yes, it's called a polygraph.

Lex Fridman (1:39:07.400)

Polygraph.

Lex Fridman (1:39:08.560)

How effective, just interesting,

Lex Fridman (1:39:10.040)

or our previous discussion, how effective are those?

Andrew Bustamante (1:39:12.840)

Polygraphs are really interesting.

Lex Fridman (1:39:14.080)

So one of the things that people don't understand

Andrew Bustamante (1:39:16.440)

about polygraphs is that polygraphs

Lex Fridman (1:39:17.880)

aren't meant to detect a lie.

Andrew Bustamante (1:39:19.440)

Like they're called a lie detector,

Lex Fridman (1:39:21.400)

but they're not actually meant to detect a lie.

Andrew Bustamante (1:39:23.840)

They're built to detect variants

Lex Fridman (1:39:27.280)

from your physiological baseline.

Lex Fridman (1:39:29.680)

So they're essentially meant to identify sensitivities

Lex Fridman (1:39:33.360)

to certain types of questions.

Lex Fridman (1:39:35.240)

And then as they identify a sensitivity to a question,

Lex Fridman (1:39:37.400)

it gives the interviewer an additional piece of information

Andrew Bustamante (1:39:40.600)

to direct the next round of questions.

Lex Fridman (1:39:43.020)

So then from there, they can kind of see

Lex Fridman (1:39:44.520)

how sensitive you are to a certain level of questions.

Lex Fridman (1:39:46.840)

And your sensitivity could be a sign of dishonesty,

Lex Fridman (1:39:50.720)

but it could also be a sign of vulnerability.

Lex Fridman (1:39:54.520)

So the interrogator themselves, the interviewer themselves,

Andrew Bustamante (1:39:57.360)

they're the one that have to make the judgment call

Lex Fridman (1:39:59.880)

as to which one it is,

Andrew Bustamante (1:40:00.720)

which is why you might see multiple interviewers

Lex Fridman (1:40:03.580)

over the course of multiple polygraphs.

Lex Fridman (1:40:05.840)

But that's really what they're all about.

Lex Fridman (1:40:07.400)

So, I mean, outside of, they're extremely uncomfortable,

Andrew Bustamante (1:40:11.280)

like they're mentally uncomfortable,

Lex Fridman (1:40:13.360)

but then there's also, you sit on a pad

Andrew Bustamante (1:40:15.780)

because the pad is supposed to be able to tell

Lex Fridman (1:40:17.280)

like your body movements, but also like your sphincter

Andrew Bustamante (1:40:20.920)

contractions or whatever.

Lex Fridman (1:40:22.200)

So you're sitting on this pad, you're plugged in,

Andrew Bustamante (1:40:24.560)

you're strapped in, you're tied up,

Lex Fridman (1:40:26.280)

and it takes so much time to get in there.

Lex Fridman (1:40:28.040)

And then they start asking you questions,

Lex Fridman (1:40:30.080)

baseline questions at first,

Lex Fridman (1:40:31.240)

and then other questions from there.

Lex Fridman (1:40:33.240)

And you're just answering the best you can.

Lex Fridman (1:40:35.260)

And you never know what they're seeing

Lex Fridman (1:40:36.320)

and you don't know what they're doing.

Lex Fridman (1:40:37.160)

And it's really hard not to get anxious of that anyways.

Lex Fridman (1:40:39.640)

And then...

Lex Fridman (1:40:40.460)

Are they the whole time monitoring the readings?

Lex Fridman (1:40:42.360)

Yeah, from like a big, they've got multiple screens

Lex Fridman (1:40:45.020)

and they've got just, it's all information superiority.

Lex Fridman (1:40:47.800)

They have information superiority.

Andrew Bustamante (1:40:49.980)

You're the idiot looking away from them

Lex Fridman (1:40:51.440)

or looking sideways of them and trying not to move

Andrew Bustamante (1:40:54.660)

because you're afraid that if you like have gas

Lex Fridman (1:40:57.040)

or if you move a little bit,

Andrew Bustamante (1:40:57.880)

it's gonna bury you from your baseline.

Lex Fridman (1:40:59.600)

And the whole time you're worried, your heart's racing

Lex Fridman (1:41:01.240)

and your blood pressure's increasing,

Lex Fridman (1:41:02.360)

which is a variance from baseline.

Lex Fridman (1:41:04.320)

So yeah, that means it's an interesting art.

Lex Fridman (1:41:06.480)

Or your baseline.

Andrew Bustamante (1:41:07.640)

Correct.

Lex Fridman (1:41:08.480)

Maybe there's some people that are just chilling

Andrew Bustamante (1:41:09.560)

the whole time and that's their baseline.

Lex Fridman (1:41:11.800)

Right, right.

Lex Fridman (1:41:12.880)

But that's what they're doing.

Lex Fridman (1:41:14.020)

They're establishing a baseline.

Andrew Bustamante (1:41:14.880)

I mean, I guess that means the polygraph

Lex Fridman (1:41:16.840)

is a skill that you develop to do it well.

Lex Fridman (1:41:22.040)

So when people talk about beating a lie detector,

Lex Fridman (1:41:24.380)

it's not that they're telling an effective lie.

Andrew Bustamante (1:41:26.200)

That's not hard.

Lex Fridman (1:41:27.040)

It's not hard to tell a lie to an interviewer.

Lex Fridman (1:41:31.320)

And the interviewer doesn't care

Lex Fridman (1:41:32.280)

if you're being honest or not honest about a topic.

Lex Fridman (1:41:34.260)

What they're looking for is sensitivity.

Lex Fridman (1:41:36.760)

If they see no sensitivity, that's a big sign for them.

Andrew Bustamante (1:41:40.680)

That's a big sign that you're probably a pathological liar.

Lex Fridman (1:41:43.500)

If you show sensitivity to many things,

Andrew Bustamante (1:41:46.880)

then that's a sign that you're probably an anxious person

Lex Fridman (1:41:49.280)

and they can still reset their baseline

Andrew Bustamante (1:41:51.640)

because they can tell how your anxiety

Lex Fridman (1:41:53.680)

is increasing in 15 minute increments.

Andrew Bustamante (1:41:56.720)

It's a unique skill.

Lex Fridman (1:41:58.520)

I mean, a really good polygrapher is immensely valuable.

Lex Fridman (1:42:02.000)

But yeah, it's the misnomers,

Lex Fridman (1:42:04.160)

the misconceptions about polygraphs are vast.

Andrew Bustamante (1:42:07.200)

You also mentioned personality tests.

Lex Fridman (1:42:09.540)

That's really interesting.

Lex Fridman (1:42:10.920)

So how effective are personality tests?

Lex Fridman (1:42:14.000)

One for the hiring process,

Lex Fridman (1:42:15.360)

but also for understanding a human being.

Lex Fridman (1:42:17.320)

So personality is extremely important

Andrew Bustamante (1:42:19.820)

for understanding human being.

Lex Fridman (1:42:20.800)

And I would say that there's a thousand different ways

Andrew Bustamante (1:42:22.740)

of looking at personality.

Lex Fridman (1:42:23.580)

The only one that I count with any significance is the MBTI.

Lex Fridman (1:42:28.080)

And the MBTI is what all the leading spy agencies

Lex Fridman (1:42:30.500)

around the world use as well.

Andrew Bustamante (1:42:32.400)

Well, that's kind of interesting to hear.

Lex Fridman (1:42:34.000)

Oh yeah.

Lex Fridman (1:42:34.840)

So there's been criticisms of that kind of test.

Lex Fridman (1:42:36.480)

There have been criticisms for a long time.

Andrew Bustamante (1:42:38.360)

Yeah, and you think there's value.

Lex Fridman (1:42:40.200)

Absolutely, absolutely.

Lex Fridman (1:42:41.400)

And there's a few reasons why, right?

Lex Fridman (1:42:43.140)

So first, MBTI makes the claim

Andrew Bustamante (1:42:45.520)

that your core personality doesn't change over time.

Lex Fridman (1:42:49.240)

And that's how it's calibrated.

Lex Fridman (1:42:51.720)

And one of the big arguments is that people say

Lex Fridman (1:42:53.280)

that your personality can change over time.

Andrew Bustamante (1:42:55.720)

Now, in my experience, the MBTI is exactly correct.

Lex Fridman (1:42:59.600)

Your core personality does not change

Andrew Bustamante (1:43:01.640)

because your core personality is defined

Lex Fridman (1:43:04.400)

as your personality when all resources are removed.

Lex Fridman (1:43:08.880)

So essentially, your emergency mode, your dire conditions,

Lex Fridman (1:43:13.300)

that is your core personality.

Andrew Bustamante (1:43:15.580)

We can all act a little more extroverted.

Lex Fridman (1:43:18.280)

We can all be a little more empathetic

Andrew Bustamante (1:43:21.680)

when we have tons of time and money and patience.

Lex Fridman (1:43:25.040)

When you strip away all that time, money, and patience,

Lex Fridman (1:43:27.160)

how empathetic are you?

Lex Fridman (1:43:28.700)

How much do you like being around other people?

Lex Fridman (1:43:31.320)

How much do you like being alone?

Lex Fridman (1:43:33.040)

Do you make judgments or do you analyze information?

Andrew Bustamante (1:43:37.120)

That's what's so powerful about MBTI

Lex Fridman (1:43:38.840)

is it's talking about what people are like

Andrew Bustamante (1:43:40.600)

when you strip away resources.

Lex Fridman (1:43:42.320)

And then because it's so consistent,

Andrew Bustamante (1:43:44.280)

it's also only four codes.

Lex Fridman (1:43:46.380)

It's super easy to be able to assess a human being

Andrew Bustamante (1:43:50.600)

through a dialogue, through a series of conversations,

Lex Fridman (1:43:54.000)

to be able to hone in with high accuracy

Lex Fridman (1:43:57.420)

what is there for letter code.

Lex Fridman (1:44:00.600)

There's only 16 options and it becomes extremely valuable.

Lex Fridman (1:44:04.120)

Is it perfectly precise and does everybody do it the same?

Lex Fridman (1:44:08.600)

I mean, those things are, the answers to those are no,

Lex Fridman (1:44:10.920)

but is it operationally useful in a short period of time?

Lex Fridman (1:44:15.200)

That is a resoundingly powerful yes.

Andrew Bustamante (1:44:18.240)

Yeah, I just, I only know, I think the first letter,

Lex Fridman (1:44:20.360)

it's introverted and extroverted, right?

Andrew Bustamante (1:44:23.480)

I've taken the test before,

Lex Fridman (1:44:25.500)

just like a crude version of the test

Lex Fridman (1:44:27.640)

and that's the same problem you have with IQ tests.

Lex Fridman (1:44:30.300)

There's the right thorough way of doing it

Lex Fridman (1:44:33.200)

and there's like fun internet way.

Lex Fridman (1:44:34.880)

And do you mind sharing what your personality?

Lex Fridman (1:44:42.680)

My type index?

Lex Fridman (1:44:43.840)

Yes.

Andrew Bustamante (1:44:44.680)

I'm an ENTP, that's an extrovert,

Lex Fridman (1:44:46.800)

intuitive, perceiver, thinker, ENT, thinker, P, perceiver.

Andrew Bustamante (1:44:54.320)

My wife is an ISFJ, which is the polar opposite of me.

Lex Fridman (1:44:59.200)

E, I'm extroverted, she's introverted,

Andrew Bustamante (1:45:01.280)

I'm an intuitor, she's a sensor, I'm a thinker,

Lex Fridman (1:45:05.200)

she's a feeler, I'm a perceiver, she's a judger.

Andrew Bustamante (1:45:07.520)

Is there good science on like longterm

Lex Fridman (1:45:10.640)

successful relationships in terms of the dynamics of that,

Andrew Bustamante (1:45:13.880)

the 16, I wonder if there's good data on this.

Lex Fridman (1:45:16.680)

I don't think there's a lot of good data

Andrew Bustamante (1:45:19.680)

in personalities writ large because there's not a lot

Lex Fridman (1:45:23.320)

of money to be made in personality testing,

Lex Fridman (1:45:26.600)

but I would say that with experience,

Lex Fridman (1:45:33.000)

with a good MBTI test, with a good paid test,

Andrew Bustamante (1:45:36.200)

a 400, 500 question test,

Lex Fridman (1:45:38.880)

once you understand your own code

Lex Fridman (1:45:41.200)

and then you're taught how to assess the code of others,

Lex Fridman (1:45:44.920)

with those two things kind of combined

Andrew Bustamante (1:45:46.640)

because then you have experience and learning,

Lex Fridman (1:45:48.800)

it becomes very useful and you can have high confidence

Andrew Bustamante (1:45:53.800)

in the conclusions that you reach about

Lex Fridman (1:45:56.560)

people's professions, about people's relationships

Andrew Bustamante (1:45:59.960)

with family, about people's relationships professionally,

Lex Fridman (1:46:02.480)

people's capabilities to deal with stress,

Lex Fridman (1:46:05.080)

how people will perform when pushed outside

Lex Fridman (1:46:08.000)

of their comfort zones, really, really powerful,

Andrew Bustamante (1:46:10.460)

useful stuff in corporate world and in the espionage world.

Lex Fridman (1:46:14.120)

So in terms of compressed representation

Andrew Bustamante (1:46:16.820)

of another human being, you can't do much better

Lex Fridman (1:46:20.880)

than those four letters.

Andrew Bustamante (1:46:21.960)

I don't believe you can do much better.

Lex Fridman (1:46:23.240)

In my experience, I have not seen anything better.

Andrew Bustamante (1:46:26.360)

Yeah, it is kind of, it's difficult to realize

Lex Fridman (1:46:30.800)

that there is a core personality

Andrew Bustamante (1:46:32.080)

or to the degree that's true, it seems to be true.

Lex Fridman (1:46:35.600)

It's even more difficult to realize

Andrew Bustamante (1:46:38.040)

that there is a stable, at least the science says so,

Lex Fridman (1:46:42.760)

a stable, consistent intelligence, unfortunately,

Andrew Bustamante (1:46:48.240)

you know, the G factor that they call,

Lex Fridman (1:46:51.000)

that if you do a barrage of IQ tests,

Andrew Bustamante (1:46:53.260)

that's going to consistently represent that G factor.

Lex Fridman (1:46:57.080)

And we're all born with that, we can't fix it.

Lex Fridman (1:46:59.360)

And that defines so much of who we are.

Lex Fridman (1:47:01.900)

It's sad.

Andrew Bustamante (1:47:03.040)

I don't see it as sad, because it's, for me,

Lex Fridman (1:47:06.280)

the faster you learn it, the faster you learn

Lex Fridman (1:47:08.960)

what your own sort of natural strengths and weaknesses are,

Lex Fridman (1:47:14.060)

the faster you get to stop wasting time

Andrew Bustamante (1:47:17.400)

on things that you're never gonna be good at,

Lex Fridman (1:47:19.160)

and you get to double down on the things

Andrew Bustamante (1:47:21.120)

that you're already naturally skilled or interested in.

Lex Fridman (1:47:23.520)

So there's always a silver lining to a cloud.

Lex Fridman (1:47:26.560)

But I know now that I will never be a ballerina

Lex Fridman (1:47:29.600)

or a ballerino, I know that I'll never be an artist,

Andrew Bustamante (1:47:32.160)

I'll never be a musician, I'll never be any of those things.

Lex Fridman (1:47:35.260)

And when I was 18, that might've made me sad,

Lex Fridman (1:47:37.600)

but now at 42, I'm like, well, shit, awesome.

Lex Fridman (1:47:40.600)

I can go be something else good instead of always being bad.

Andrew Bustamante (1:47:44.120)

You're not gonna be a ballerina, ballerino.

Lex Fridman (1:47:46.600)

Because I'm not graceful.

Lex Fridman (1:47:48.560)

And you've learned this through years of experience.

Lex Fridman (1:47:51.600)

Yeah, exactly.

Andrew Bustamante (1:47:52.620)

Well, I don't know if there's an MBTI equivalent

Lex Fridman (1:47:55.000)

for grace of movement.

Andrew Bustamante (1:47:56.840)

I think it's called S sensor.

Lex Fridman (1:47:58.840)

Oh, okay.

Andrew Bustamante (1:47:59.680)

Yeah, because a sensor is someone who's able

Lex Fridman (1:48:02.200)

to interact with the world around them

Andrew Bustamante (1:48:03.520)

through their five senses very effectively.

Lex Fridman (1:48:06.120)

Like if you talk to dancers, dancers can actually feel

Andrew Bustamante (1:48:08.800)

the grace in all of their muscles.

Lex Fridman (1:48:10.720)

They know what position their finger is in.

Andrew Bustamante (1:48:13.520)

I don't have any idea.

Lex Fridman (1:48:14.360)

I don't know what position my feet are in right now.

Andrew Bustamante (1:48:15.920)

I had to look to make sure I actually feel the floor right.

Lex Fridman (1:48:18.600)

Yeah, I definitely have.

Andrew Bustamante (1:48:20.320)

Oh, that's good to know.

Lex Fridman (1:48:21.360)

So I don't, I'm not a dancer, but I do have that.

Andrew Bustamante (1:48:25.640)

You're a musician, man.

Lex Fridman (1:48:27.360)

Well, the music, I don't know if that's for sure.

Andrew Bustamante (1:48:29.760)

Yeah, that's true that there is that physical component,

Lex Fridman (1:48:32.380)

but I think deeper,

Andrew Bustamante (1:48:33.760)

cause there's a technical aspect to that.

Lex Fridman (1:48:35.860)

That's just like, it's less about feel,

Lex Fridman (1:48:39.000)

but I do know jujitsu and grappling I've done all my life.

Lex Fridman (1:48:43.520)

I don't, you know, there's some people who are clumsy

Lex Fridman (1:48:46.600)

and they drop stuff all the time.

Lex Fridman (1:48:47.680)

They run into stuff.

Andrew Bustamante (1:48:49.120)

I don't, I don't, first of all, I don't know how that happens,

Lex Fridman (1:48:51.920)

but to me, I just have an awareness of stuff.

Andrew Bustamante (1:48:54.680)

Like if there's a little orientation.

Lex Fridman (1:48:56.760)

Yeah, like, like I know that there's a small object

Andrew Bustamante (1:49:00.520)

I have to step over and I have a good sense of that.

Lex Fridman (1:49:03.760)

It's so, it's so interesting.

Andrew Bustamante (1:49:04.960)

Yeah, you're just like born with that or something.

Lex Fridman (1:49:06.440)

My wife is brilliant and she still walks into doors.

Andrew Bustamante (1:49:09.560)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (1:49:10.400)

I mean, she'll walk in a doorway.

Andrew Bustamante (1:49:11.800)

She'll bang her knee on the same wall that's been there

Lex Fridman (1:49:14.080)

for the last 50 years.

Andrew Bustamante (1:49:15.280)

It's for some reason, really hilarious.

Lex Fridman (1:49:17.280)

That's good for me.

Andrew Bustamante (1:49:20.280)

You've been asked, I think on Reddit,

Lex Fridman (1:49:23.360)

are there big secrets that you know that could lend you

Lex Fridman (1:49:26.240)

and our country in terrible trouble

Lex Fridman (1:49:28.280)

if you came out to the public and you answered,

Andrew Bustamante (1:49:30.240)

yes, I wish I could forget them.

Lex Fridman (1:49:32.940)

So let me ask you just about secrecy in general.

Andrew Bustamante (1:49:36.700)

Are these secrets or just other secrets,

Lex Fridman (1:49:39.160)

ones that the public will never know

Lex Fridman (1:49:43.280)

or will it come out in 10, 20, 50 years?

Lex Fridman (1:49:47.380)

I guess the deeper question is,

Lex Fridman (1:49:49.560)

what is the value of secrecy and transparency?

Lex Fridman (1:49:53.520)

The standard classification

Andrew Bustamante (1:49:56.880)

for all human intelligence operations

Lex Fridman (1:49:59.280)

is something called two five X two, 25 by two.

Lex Fridman (1:50:03.340)

So 50 years, 25 years times two years or times two rounds.

Lex Fridman (1:50:07.680)

So in essence, anything that I've seen

Andrew Bustamante (1:50:11.280)

has the first chance of becoming public domain,

Lex Fridman (1:50:15.120)

declassified after 50 years,

Andrew Bustamante (1:50:17.360)

unless there's some congressional requirement

Lex Fridman (1:50:19.880)

for it to be reviewed and assessed earlier.

Lex Fridman (1:50:22.200)

So by then, I'll be 80 something years old

Lex Fridman (1:50:24.680)

or potentially dead, which is either way.

Andrew Bustamante (1:50:28.760)

That's when it can come out

Lex Fridman (1:50:31.020)

according to its typical classification.

Andrew Bustamante (1:50:34.240)

The value of secrets I have seen

Lex Fridman (1:50:39.040)

is that secrets create space.

Andrew Bustamante (1:50:44.120)

Secrets give opportunity for security.

Lex Fridman (1:50:48.520)

They give opportunity for thinking.

Andrew Bustamante (1:50:50.740)

They give space

Lex Fridman (1:50:52.080)

and space is an incredibly advantageous thing to have.

Andrew Bustamante (1:50:55.100)

If you know something somebody else doesn't know,

Lex Fridman (1:50:57.060)

even if it's just 15 or 20 minutes different,

Andrew Bustamante (1:50:59.760)

you can direct, you can change the course of fate.

Lex Fridman (1:51:02.600)

So I find secrets to be extremely valuable,

Andrew Bustamante (1:51:05.400)

extremely useful.

Lex Fridman (1:51:07.840)

Even at the place where secrets

Andrew Bustamante (1:51:10.040)

are being kept from a large mass,

Lex Fridman (1:51:13.240)

part of what all Americans need to understand

Andrew Bustamante (1:51:15.520)

is that one of the trade offs

Lex Fridman (1:51:19.280)

to building a system of government

Andrew Bustamante (1:51:23.920)

that allows us to be first world and wealthy

Lex Fridman (1:51:26.740)

and secure and successful,

Andrew Bustamante (1:51:28.480)

one of the trade offs is that we have given up

Lex Fridman (1:51:30.680)

a great deal of personal freedom.

Lex Fridman (1:51:32.520)

And one of the personal freedoms that we give up

Lex Fridman (1:51:34.680)

is the freedom of knowing what we wanna know.

Andrew Bustamante (1:51:39.000)

You get to know what the government tells you,

Lex Fridman (1:51:41.460)

you get to know what you need to know

Andrew Bustamante (1:51:43.060)

or what you've learned yourself,

Lex Fridman (1:51:44.400)

but you don't get to know secrets.

Andrew Bustamante (1:51:47.000)

People who do get to know secrets know them for a reason.

Lex Fridman (1:51:49.720)

That's why it's called a need to know.

Lex Fridman (1:51:51.840)

How difficult is it to maintain secrecy?

Lex Fridman (1:51:54.480)

It's surprisingly difficult as technology changes.

Andrew Bustamante (1:51:58.640)

It's also surprisingly difficult

Lex Fridman (1:52:00.240)

as our culture becomes one where people want notoriety.

Andrew Bustamante (1:52:06.680)

People wanna be the person who breaks the secret.

Lex Fridman (1:52:10.460)

25 years ago, 40 years ago, that wasn't the case.

Andrew Bustamante (1:52:13.040)

There was a time in the United States

Lex Fridman (1:52:14.320)

where if someone gave you a secret,

Andrew Bustamante (1:52:16.640)

it was a point of personal honor not to share the secret.

Lex Fridman (1:52:20.020)

Now we're in a place where someone tells you a secret,

Andrew Bustamante (1:52:22.560)

like that could turn into a Twitter post

Lex Fridman (1:52:24.920)

that gets you a bunch of thumbs up

Lex Fridman (1:52:26.320)

and a bunch of likes or whatever else.

Lex Fridman (1:52:27.440)

An opportunity. Right.

Lex Fridman (1:52:28.360)

So the value of secrets has changed.

Lex Fridman (1:52:31.160)

And now there's almost a greater value on exposing secrets

Andrew Bustamante (1:52:34.140)

than there is on keeping secrets.

Lex Fridman (1:52:36.260)

That makes it difficult to keep secrets,

Andrew Bustamante (1:52:38.360)

especially when technology is going in the same direction.

Lex Fridman (1:52:40.720)

Yeah, where is the line?

Lex Fridman (1:52:43.080)

And by the way, I'm one of those old school people

Lex Fridman (1:52:45.040)

with the secrets.

Andrew Bustamante (1:52:46.000)

I think it's a karma thing.

Lex Fridman (1:52:51.080)

Again, back to the trust.

Andrew Bustamante (1:52:52.920)

I think in the short term you can benefit

Lex Fridman (1:52:55.040)

by sharing a secret.

Lex Fridman (1:52:57.240)

But in the long term, if people know they can trust you,

Lex Fridman (1:53:00.260)

like the juicy of the secret, it's a test of sorts.

Andrew Bustamante (1:53:05.000)

If they know you can keep that secret,

Lex Fridman (1:53:07.840)

that means you're somebody that could be trusted.

Lex Fridman (1:53:10.040)

And I believe that not just effectiveness in this life,

Lex Fridman (1:53:14.120)

but happiness in this life is informing a circle

Andrew Bustamante (1:53:17.320)

of people you can trust.

Lex Fridman (1:53:18.640)

Right, we're taught that secrets and lies are similar

Andrew Bustamante (1:53:22.200)

in that they have a limited shelf life.

Lex Fridman (1:53:24.260)

If you treat them like food,

Andrew Bustamante (1:53:26.340)

secrets and lies have a very limited shelf life.

Lex Fridman (1:53:29.160)

So if you cash in on them while they're still fresh,

Andrew Bustamante (1:53:33.960)

you beat them before they spoil.

Lex Fridman (1:53:35.700)

You get to take advantage of them before they spoil.

Andrew Bustamante (1:53:38.040)

However, trust has no limit to its shelf life.

Lex Fridman (1:53:43.620)

So it's almost like you're trading a short term victory

Lex Fridman (1:53:46.380)

and losing a long term victory.

Lex Fridman (1:53:48.280)

It's always better to keep the secret.

Andrew Bustamante (1:53:50.540)

It's always better to let the lie live

Lex Fridman (1:53:53.600)

because it will eventually come to light

Andrew Bustamante (1:53:56.040)

from somebody else, not from you,

Lex Fridman (1:53:57.920)

because it already has a limited shelf life.

Lex Fridman (1:53:59.800)

But what you win in exchange

Lex Fridman (1:54:01.520)

for not being the one that cashed in on the secret

Andrew Bustamante (1:54:03.600)

is immense trust.

Lex Fridman (1:54:07.920)

Let me ask you about lying and trust and so on.

Lex Fridman (1:54:12.520)

So I don't believe I've been contacted by

Lex Fridman (1:54:15.620)

or interacted with the CIA, the MI6, the FSB,

Andrew Bustamante (1:54:20.000)

Mossad or any other intelligence agency.

Lex Fridman (1:54:22.760)

I'm kind of offended, but would I know if I was?

Lex Fridman (1:54:29.880)

So from your perspective.

Lex Fridman (1:54:31.320)

No, you would not know if you were.

Andrew Bustamante (1:54:33.420)

For sure you've been on their radar.

Lex Fridman (1:54:35.040)

Absolutely, you've got a file.

Andrew Bustamante (1:54:36.620)

You've got a dossier somewhere.

Lex Fridman (1:54:38.080)

Why would I be on their radar?

Andrew Bustamante (1:54:39.560)

Because you're a.

Lex Fridman (1:54:40.480)

Who's interesting?

Andrew Bustamante (1:54:41.480)

It's not necessarily that you are interesting

Lex Fridman (1:54:46.300)

to someone as a foreign asset

Andrew Bustamante (1:54:48.920)

or an intelligence collection source,

Lex Fridman (1:54:51.680)

but your network is extremely interesting.

Andrew Bustamante (1:54:54.480)

The networks are important too.

Lex Fridman (1:54:55.720)

Correct, if someone had access to,

Andrew Bustamante (1:54:57.840)

if someone was able to clone your phone,

Lex Fridman (1:55:01.320)

every time you cross a border,

Andrew Bustamante (1:55:02.480)

you go through some sort of security.

Lex Fridman (1:55:04.800)

If you've ever been pulled into secondary

Lex Fridman (1:55:06.460)

and separated from your bag,

Lex Fridman (1:55:08.080)

that's exactly when and how people clone computers.

Andrew Bustamante (1:55:10.660)

They clone phones, they make whatever,

Lex Fridman (1:55:13.280)

photocopies of your old school planner,

Andrew Bustamante (1:55:17.300)

whatever it might be.

Lex Fridman (1:55:18.400)

But for sure you are an intelligence target.

Andrew Bustamante (1:55:23.120)

It just may be that you're not suitable

Lex Fridman (1:55:24.840)

to be a person who reports foreign intelligence.

Andrew Bustamante (1:55:28.840)

We've got to understand that all people

Lex Fridman (1:55:30.880)

are potential sources of valuable information

Andrew Bustamante (1:55:33.320)

to the national security infrastructure

Lex Fridman (1:55:35.580)

of our host country and any country that we visit.

Andrew Bustamante (1:55:38.960)

Someone like you with your public footprint,

Lex Fridman (1:55:41.480)

with your notoriety, with your educational background,

Andrew Bustamante (1:55:43.880)

with your national identifications

Lex Fridman (1:55:46.720)

becomes a viable and valuable target of information.

Andrew Bustamante (1:55:50.880)

Yeah, so to speak to that,

Lex Fridman (1:55:56.160)

I take security pretty seriously,

Lex Fridman (1:55:58.200)

but not to the degree that it runs my life,

Lex Fridman (1:56:03.920)

which I'm very careful about.

Andrew Bustamante (1:56:05.880)

That's good, I'm glad to hear that.

Lex Fridman (1:56:07.760)

So the moment you start to think about germs, right?

Andrew Bustamante (1:56:11.840)

Like you start to freak out

Lex Fridman (1:56:14.120)

and you become sort of paralyzed by the stress of it.

Lex Fridman (1:56:17.360)

So you have to balance those two things.

Lex Fridman (1:56:21.400)

If you think about all the things

Andrew Bustamante (1:56:22.640)

that could hurt you in this world

Lex Fridman (1:56:24.000)

and all the risk you could take,

Andrew Bustamante (1:56:27.600)

it can overwhelm your life.

Lex Fridman (1:56:29.200)

That said, the cyber world is a weird world

Andrew Bustamante (1:56:32.640)

because it doesn't have the same.

Lex Fridman (1:56:36.560)

I know not to cross the street without looking each way

Andrew Bustamante (1:56:39.320)

because there's a physical intuition about it.

Lex Fridman (1:56:41.640)

I'm not sure, I'm a computer science guy,

Lex Fridman (1:56:45.040)

so I have some intuition,

Lex Fridman (1:56:46.160)

but the cyber world, it's really hard

Andrew Bustamante (1:56:50.400)

to build up an intuition of what is safe and not.

Lex Fridman (1:56:53.280)

I've seen a lot of people just logging out

Andrew Bustamante (1:56:56.560)

of your devices all the time, like regularly.

Lex Fridman (1:56:59.720)

Just like that physical access step

Andrew Bustamante (1:57:01.760)

is a lot of people don't take.

Lex Fridman (1:57:03.360)

I can just like walk in into the offices of a lot of CEOs

Lex Fridman (1:57:07.920)

and it's like everything's wide open

Lex Fridman (1:57:10.680)

for physical access of those systems,

Andrew Bustamante (1:57:13.480)

which is kind of incredible for somebody,

Lex Fridman (1:57:16.720)

that sounds really shady, but it's not.

Andrew Bustamante (1:57:18.440)

I've written key loggers,

Lex Fridman (1:57:20.360)

like things that record everything you type

Andrew Bustamante (1:57:22.000)

in the mouse you move.

Lex Fridman (1:57:23.480)

And like I did that for, during my PhD,

Andrew Bustamante (1:57:27.680)

I was recording everything you do on your device

Lex Fridman (1:57:30.120)

and everything you do on your computer.

Andrew Bustamante (1:57:33.000)

People sign up to the study, they willingly do this

Lex Fridman (1:57:36.040)

to understand behavior.

Andrew Bustamante (1:57:37.240)

I was trying to use machine learning

Lex Fridman (1:57:38.440)

to identify who you are based on different biometric

Lex Fridman (1:57:42.160)

and behavioral things, which allows me

Lex Fridman (1:57:44.840)

to study human behavior and to see

Andrew Bustamante (1:57:46.560)

which is uniquely identifiable.

Lex Fridman (1:57:49.520)

And the goal there was to remove the need for a password.

Lex Fridman (1:57:53.120)

But how easy it is to write a thing

Lex Fridman (1:57:56.080)

that logs everything you type.

Andrew Bustamante (1:57:58.240)

I was like, wait a minute, like I can probably get

Lex Fridman (1:58:01.680)

a lot of people in the world to run this for me.

Andrew Bustamante (1:58:04.240)

I can then get all of their passwords.

Lex Fridman (1:58:06.680)

I mean, you could do so much,

Andrew Bustamante (1:58:10.840)

like I can run the entirety of the CIA from just myself.

Lex Fridman (1:58:15.880)

If I was, and I imagine there's a lot

Andrew Bustamante (1:58:17.640)

of really good hackers like that out there,

Lex Fridman (1:58:20.240)

much better than me.

Lex Fridman (1:58:22.440)

So I tried to prevent myself from being

Lex Fridman (1:58:25.800)

all the different low hanging fruit attack vectors

Andrew Bustamante (1:58:28.360)

in my life.

Lex Fridman (1:58:29.440)

I try to make it difficult to be that.

Lex Fridman (1:58:33.120)

But then I'm also aware that there's probably people

Lex Fridman (1:58:35.680)

that are like five steps ahead.

Andrew Bustamante (1:58:38.240)

You're doing the right thing.

Lex Fridman (1:58:40.440)

What I always advocate is the low hanging fruit

Andrew Bustamante (1:58:44.240)

is what keeps you from being a target of opportunity.

Lex Fridman (1:58:46.800)

Because you're half assed hackers,

Andrew Bustamante (1:58:49.960)

you're lazy hackers, you're unskilled hackers.

Lex Fridman (1:58:53.280)

They're looking for low hanging fruit.

Andrew Bustamante (1:58:54.720)

They're looking for the person who gets the Nigeria email

Lex Fridman (1:58:57.240)

about how you could be getting $5 million

Andrew Bustamante (1:58:59.120)

if you just give me your bank account.

Lex Fridman (1:59:00.480)

Exactly.

Andrew Bustamante (1:59:01.320)

That's what they're looking for.

Lex Fridman (1:59:03.640)

The thing that's scary is that if you're not

Andrew Bustamante (1:59:05.400)

a target of opportunity,

Lex Fridman (1:59:06.400)

if you become a intentional target,

Andrew Bustamante (1:59:10.080)

then there's almost nothing you can do.

Lex Fridman (1:59:11.840)

Because once you become an intentional target,

Andrew Bustamante (1:59:14.520)

then your security apparatus,

Lex Fridman (1:59:17.840)

they will create a dedicated customized way vector

Andrew Bustamante (1:59:24.280)

of attacking your specific security apparatus.

Lex Fridman (1:59:27.240)

And because security is always after, right?

Andrew Bustamante (1:59:30.400)

There's always, there's the leading advantage

Lex Fridman (1:59:32.960)

and the trailing advantage.

Andrew Bustamante (1:59:34.960)

When it comes to attacks,

Lex Fridman (1:59:36.720)

the leader always has the advantage

Andrew Bustamante (1:59:38.280)

because they have to create the attack

Lex Fridman (1:59:40.120)

before anybody else can create a way

Andrew Bustamante (1:59:42.640)

to protect against the attack.

Lex Fridman (1:59:44.240)

So the attack always comes first

Lex Fridman (1:59:45.640)

and that means they always have the advantage.

Lex Fridman (1:59:47.040)

You are always stuck just leaning on,

Andrew Bustamante (1:59:49.720)

this is the best security that I know of.

Lex Fridman (1:59:52.320)

Meanwhile, there's always somebody who can create a way

Andrew Bustamante (1:59:54.760)

of attacking the best security out there.

Lex Fridman (1:59:57.120)

And once they win, they have a monopoly.

Andrew Bustamante (1:59:59.160)

They have all that time until a new defensive countermeasure

Lex Fridman (20:03.620)

All the way to Odessa.

Andrew Bustamante (20:04.520)

All the way to Odessa.

Lex Fridman (20:05.760)

And into Moldova.

Andrew Bustamante (20:09.720)

I believe all of that will happen before the fall.

Lex Fridman (20:12.880)

Fall of this year?

Andrew Bustamante (20:13.800)

Fall of this year.

Lex Fridman (20:14.680)

Before winter hits Europe,

Andrew Bustamante (20:16.600)

NATO wants Germany needs to be able to have sanctions lifted

Lex Fridman (20:21.480)

so they can tap into Russian power.

Andrew Bustamante (20:23.720)

There's no way they can have those sanctions lifted

Lex Fridman (20:26.100)

unless Russia wins.

Lex Fridman (20:28.240)

And Russia also knows that all of Europe,

Lex Fridman (20:31.240)

all of NATO is the true,

Andrew Bustamante (20:33.380)

the true people feeling the pain of the war

Lex Fridman (20:36.000)

outside of Ukraine are the NATO countries

Andrew Bustamante (20:39.160)

because they're so heavily reliant on Russia.

Lex Fridman (20:42.680)

And as they have supported American sanctions against Russia,

Andrew Bustamante (20:46.280)

their people feel the pain.

Lex Fridman (20:47.880)

Economically, their people feel the pain.

Lex Fridman (20:50.520)

What are they gonna do in the winter?

Lex Fridman (20:51.940)

Because without Russian gas,

Andrew Bustamante (20:54.700)

their people are gonna freeze to death.

Lex Fridman (20:56.840)

Ukrainian people.

Andrew Bustamante (20:58.000)

People all over NATO.

Lex Fridman (21:00.440)

Ukraine, everybody knows Ukraine's at risk.

Andrew Bustamante (21:03.040)

Everybody knows Ukrainians are dying.

Lex Fridman (21:05.200)

The game of war isn't played just,

Andrew Bustamante (21:08.560)

it isn't even played majoritively

Lex Fridman (21:10.220)

by the people who are fighting.

Andrew Bustamante (21:11.920)

The game of war is played by everyone else.

Lex Fridman (21:13.640)

It's an economic game.

Andrew Bustamante (21:14.640)

It's not a military game.

Lex Fridman (21:16.020)

The flow of resources and energy.

Andrew Bustamante (21:18.400)

Attention. And food.

Lex Fridman (21:19.600)

Exactly right.

Andrew Bustamante (21:21.400)

I was on the front in the Kherson region,

Lex Fridman (21:24.640)

the very area that you're referring to,

Lex Fridman (21:26.880)

and I spoke to a lot of people,

Lex Fridman (21:29.040)

and the morale is incredibly high.

Lex Fridman (21:33.240)

And I don't think the people in that region,

Lex Fridman (21:37.700)

soldiers, volunteer soldiers, civilians,

Andrew Bustamante (21:42.700)

are going to give up that land without dying.

Lex Fridman (21:47.340)

I agree with you.

Andrew Bustamante (21:48.700)

I mean, in order to take Odessa,

Lex Fridman (21:51.980)

would require huge amount of artillery

Lex Fridman (21:57.520)

and slaughter of civilians, essentially.

Lex Fridman (22:00.380)

They're not gonna use artillery in Odessa

Andrew Bustamante (22:01.860)

because Odessa's too important to Russian culture.

Lex Fridman (22:06.300)

It's gonna be even uglier than that.

Andrew Bustamante (22:07.880)

It's going to be clearing of streets,

Lex Fridman (22:10.340)

clearing of buildings, person by person, troop by troop.

Andrew Bustamante (22:13.420)

It'll be a lot like what it was in Margol.

Lex Fridman (22:16.100)

Just shooting at civilians.

Andrew Bustamante (22:18.140)

Because they can't afford to just do bombing raids

Lex Fridman (22:20.940)

because they're gonna destroy cultural,

Andrew Bustamante (22:23.100)

significant architecture that's just too important

Lex Fridman (22:25.500)

to the Russian culture,

Lex Fridman (22:26.700)

and that's gonna demoralize their own Russian people.

Lex Fridman (22:29.500)

I have to do a lot of thinking

Andrew Bustamante (22:30.580)

to try to understand what I even feel.

Lex Fridman (22:32.620)

I don't know, but in terms of information,

Andrew Bustamante (22:37.460)

the thing that the soldiers are saying,

Lex Fridman (22:39.380)

the Russian soldiers are saying,

Andrew Bustamante (22:40.740)

the thing the Russian soldiers really believe

Lex Fridman (22:43.620)

is that they're freeing,

Andrew Bustamante (22:45.420)

they're liberating the Ukrainian people from Nazis.

Lex Fridman (22:54.100)

And they believe this.

Andrew Bustamante (22:56.560)

Because I visited Ukraine,

Lex Fridman (22:57.820)

I spoke to over 100,

Andrew Bustamante (23:00.740)

probably a couple hundred Ukrainian people

Lex Fridman (23:02.540)

from different walks of life.

Andrew Bustamante (23:04.420)

It feels like the Russian soldiers, at least,

Lex Fridman (23:08.620)

are under a cloud of propaganda.

Andrew Bustamante (23:11.220)

They're not operating on a clear view of the whole world.

Lex Fridman (23:15.500)

And given all that,

Andrew Bustamante (23:20.500)

I just don't see Russia taking the South

Lex Fridman (23:28.100)

without committing war crimes.

Lex Fridman (23:32.740)

And if Vladimir Putin is aware of what's happening

Lex Fridman (23:36.460)

in terms of the treatment of civilians,

Andrew Bustamante (23:39.380)

I don't see him pushing forward all the way

Lex Fridman (23:43.100)

to take the South,

Andrew Bustamante (23:44.740)

because that's not going to be effective strategy

Lex Fridman (23:49.740)

for him to win the hearts and minds of these people.

Andrew Bustamante (23:54.020)

Autocracies don't need to win hearts and minds.

Lex Fridman (23:56.740)

That's a staunchly democratic point of view.

Andrew Bustamante (24:00.140)

Hearts and minds mean very little

Lex Fridman (24:02.020)

to people who understand core basic needs and true power.

Andrew Bustamante (24:11.940)

You don't see Xi Jinping worrying

Lex Fridman (24:13.700)

about hearts and minds in China.

Andrew Bustamante (24:14.900)

You don't see it in North Korea.

Lex Fridman (24:17.580)

You don't see it in Congo.

Andrew Bustamante (24:20.100)

You don't see it in most of the world.

Lex Fridman (24:22.420)

Hearts and minds are a luxury.

Andrew Bustamante (24:24.620)

In reality, what people need is food, water, power.

Lex Fridman (24:27.260)

They need income to be able to secure a lifestyle.

Andrew Bustamante (24:32.700)

It is absolutely sad.

Lex Fridman (24:34.060)

I am not in any way, shape or form saying

Andrew Bustamante (24:37.620)

that my assessment on this is enriching

Lex Fridman (24:42.420)

or enlightening or hopeful.

Andrew Bustamante (24:46.340)

It's just fact.

Lex Fridman (24:48.700)

It's just calculatable empirical evidence.

Andrew Bustamante (24:52.660)

If Putin loses in Ukraine, the losses,

Lex Fridman (24:56.300)

the influential losses, the economic losses,

Andrew Bustamante (24:59.420)

the lives lost, the power lost is too great.

Lex Fridman (25:03.740)

So it is better for him to push and push and push

Andrew Bustamante (25:07.540)

through war crimes, through everything else.

Lex Fridman (25:09.380)

War crimes are something defined

Andrew Bustamante (25:10.620)

by the international court system.

Lex Fridman (25:12.380)

The international court system has Russia

Andrew Bustamante (25:14.620)

as part of its board.

Lex Fridman (25:16.220)

And the international court system is largely powerless

Andrew Bustamante (25:20.860)

when it comes to enforcing its own outcomes.

Lex Fridman (25:23.180)

So the real risk gain scenario here

Andrew Bustamante (25:26.180)

for Russia is significantly in favor of gain over risk.

Lex Fridman (25:34.340)

The other thing that I think is important

Andrew Bustamante (25:36.260)

to talk about is we, everybody is trapped

Lex Fridman (25:39.980)

in the middle of a gigantic information war.

Andrew Bustamante (25:42.860)

Yes, there's battlefield bullets and cannons and tanks,

Lex Fridman (25:46.020)

but there's also a massive informational war.

Andrew Bustamante (25:48.540)

The same narrative that you see these ground troops

Lex Fridman (25:53.540)

in Ukraine, these Russian ground troops in Ukraine,

Andrew Bustamante (25:56.780)

believing they're clearing the land of Nazis.

Lex Fridman (25:59.780)

That information is being fed to them

Andrew Bustamante (26:02.540)

from their own home country.

Lex Fridman (26:05.020)

I don't know why people seem to think

Andrew Bustamante (26:06.460)

that the information that they're reading in English

Lex Fridman (26:08.100)

is any more or less true.

Andrew Bustamante (26:10.900)

Every piece of news coming out of the West,

Lex Fridman (26:13.020)

every piece of information coming out

Andrew Bustamante (26:14.820)

in the English language is also a giant narrative

Lex Fridman (26:18.420)

being shared intentionally to try to undermine the morale

Lex Fridman (26:23.620)

and the faithfulness of English speaking Russians,

Lex Fridman (26:26.060)

which somebody somewhere knows exactly

Lex Fridman (26:27.900)

how many of those there are.

Lex Fridman (26:29.540)

So we have to recognize that we're not getting

Andrew Bustamante (26:32.020)

true information from other side

Lex Fridman (26:33.820)

because there's a strategic value in making sure

Andrew Bustamante (26:35.980)

that there is just the right amount

Lex Fridman (26:37.900)

of mis or disinformation out there.

Andrew Bustamante (26:40.300)

Not because someone's trying to lie to Americans,

Lex Fridman (26:42.540)

but because someone is trying to influence

Andrew Bustamante (26:44.420)

the way English speaking Russians think.

Lex Fridman (26:47.060)

And in that world, that's exactly why you see

Lex Fridman (26:49.860)

so many news articles cited to anonymous sources,

Lex Fridman (26:54.420)

government officials who do not wanna be named.

Andrew Bustamante (26:56.580)

There's nothing that links back responsibility there.

Lex Fridman (26:59.780)

There's nothing that can go to court there,

Lex Fridman (27:02.020)

but the information still gets released.

Lex Fridman (27:04.180)

And that's enough to make Ukrainians believe

Andrew Bustamante (27:08.260)

that the United States is gonna help them

Lex Fridman (27:10.060)

or that the West is gonna help them.

Andrew Bustamante (27:11.300)

It's enough to make Russians think

Lex Fridman (27:13.100)

that they're going to lose.

Lex Fridman (27:15.540)

And maybe they should just give up now

Lex Fridman (27:18.060)

and leave from the battlefield now.

Andrew Bustamante (27:19.700)

We have to understand.

Lex Fridman (27:20.940)

We are in the middle of a giant information war.

Andrew Bustamante (27:24.060)

Maybe you can correct me,

Lex Fridman (27:25.420)

but it feels like in the English speaking world,

Andrew Bustamante (27:27.380)

it's harder to control.

Lex Fridman (27:29.420)

It's harder to fight the information war

Andrew Bustamante (27:32.300)

because of, some people say there's not really

Lex Fridman (27:36.060)

a freedom of speech in this country,

Lex Fridman (27:37.580)

but I think if you compare,

Lex Fridman (27:40.180)

there's a lot more freedom of speech.

Lex Fridman (27:41.780)

And it's just harder to control narratives

Lex Fridman (27:44.300)

when there's a bunch of guerrilla journalists

Andrew Bustamante (27:48.460)

that are able to just publish anything they want

Lex Fridman (27:50.380)

on Twitter or anything.

Andrew Bustamante (27:51.980)

It's just harder to control narratives.

Lex Fridman (27:53.940)

So people don't understand what freedom of speech is.

Andrew Bustamante (27:56.100)

That's the first major problem.

Lex Fridman (27:57.580)

And it's shameful how many people in the United States

Andrew Bustamante (28:00.340)

do not understand what freedom of speech actually protects.

Lex Fridman (28:03.740)

So that aside, you're absolutely right.

Andrew Bustamante (28:06.580)

Fighting the information war in the West

Lex Fridman (28:09.140)

is extremely difficult

Andrew Bustamante (28:10.380)

because anyone with a blog, anyone with a Twitter account,

Lex Fridman (28:16.100)

anyone, I mean, anyone can call themselves

Andrew Bustamante (28:18.260)

a journalist, essentially.

Lex Fridman (28:19.540)

We live in a world, we live in a country

Andrew Bustamante (28:21.740)

where people read the headline

Lex Fridman (28:23.260)

and they completely bypass the author line

Lex Fridman (28:26.580)

and they go straight into the content.

Lex Fridman (28:28.220)

And then they decide whether the content's real or not

Andrew Bustamante (28:30.140)

based on how they feel

Lex Fridman (28:31.420)

instead of based on empirical, measurable evidence.

Lex Fridman (28:35.140)

So you mentioned the Lend Lease Act

Lex Fridman (28:37.580)

and the support of the United States,

Andrew Bustamante (28:39.740)

support of Ukraine by the United States.

Lex Fridman (28:42.340)

Are you skeptical to the level of support

Andrew Bustamante (28:44.700)

that the United States is providing

Lex Fridman (28:46.820)

and is going to provide over time?

Andrew Bustamante (28:49.980)

The strategy that the United States has taken

Lex Fridman (28:51.620)

to support Ukraine is similar to the strategy we took

Andrew Bustamante (28:54.140)

to support Great Britain during World War II.

Lex Fridman (28:57.460)

The enactment of the Lend Lease Act

Andrew Bustamante (28:58.660)

is a perfect example of that.

Lex Fridman (28:59.980)

The Lend Lease Act means that we are lending

Andrew Bustamante (29:02.620)

or leasing equipment to the Ukrainian government

Lex Fridman (29:06.020)

in exchange for future payment.

Lex Fridman (29:07.900)

So every time a rocket is launched,

Lex Fridman (29:09.940)

every time a drone crashes into a tank,

Andrew Bustamante (29:12.260)

that's a bill that Ukraine is just racking up.

Lex Fridman (29:17.820)

It's like when you go to a restaurant

Lex Fridman (29:18.820)

and you start drinking shots.

Lex Fridman (29:20.300)

Sometime the bill will come due.

Andrew Bustamante (29:22.700)

This is exactly what we did when Europe

Lex Fridman (29:25.460)

and when Great Britain was in the face of a Nazi invasion.

Andrew Bustamante (29:29.340)

We signed the same thing into motion.

Lex Fridman (29:31.260)

Do you know that the UK did not pay off the debt

Lex Fridman (29:34.260)

from World War II until 2020?

Lex Fridman (29:37.140)

They've been paying that debt since the end of World War II.

Lex Fridman (29:41.300)

So what we're doing is we're indebting Ukraine

Lex Fridman (29:44.620)

against the promise that perhaps

Andrew Bustamante (29:46.780)

they will secure their freedom,

Lex Fridman (29:48.140)

which nobody seems to wanna talk about

Lex Fridman (29:49.700)

what freedom is actually gonna look like for Ukrainians.

Lex Fridman (29:52.340)

What are the true handful of outcomes,

Andrew Bustamante (29:54.900)

the realistic outcomes that could come of this

Lex Fridman (29:56.700)

and which of those outcomes really looks like freedom

Andrew Bustamante (29:59.620)

to them, especially in the face of the fact

Lex Fridman (2:00:02.680)

is deployed.

Andrew Bustamante (2:00:04.120)

Yeah, I tend to think exactly as you said,

Lex Fridman (2:00:07.120)

that the long hanging fruit protects against like,

Andrew Bustamante (2:00:09.760)

yeah, crimes of opportunity.

Lex Fridman (2:00:11.760)

And then I assume that people can just hack in

Andrew Bustamante (2:00:15.240)

if they really want.

Lex Fridman (2:00:16.960)

Think about how much anxiety we would be able to solve

Andrew Bustamante (2:00:19.000)

if everybody just accepted that.

Lex Fridman (2:00:21.480)

Well, there's several things you do.

Andrew Bustamante (2:00:22.960)

First of all, to be honest, it just makes me,

Lex Fridman (2:00:26.800)

it keeps me honest.

Andrew Bustamante (2:00:28.680)

Not to be a douchebag or like, not, yeah,

Lex Fridman (2:00:34.560)

to assume everything could be public.

Lex Fridman (2:00:39.840)

And so don't trade information that could hurt people

Lex Fridman (2:00:44.600)

if it was made public.

Lex Fridman (2:00:46.080)

So I try to do that.

Lex Fridman (2:00:47.840)

And the thing I try to make sure is I,

Andrew Bustamante (2:00:52.280)

like Home Alone style, try to.

Lex Fridman (2:00:54.600)

Booby trap.

Andrew Bustamante (2:00:55.480)

I really would like to know if I was hacked.

Lex Fridman (2:00:59.720)

And so I try to assume that I will be hacked and detect it.

Andrew Bustamante (2:01:06.240)

Have a tripwire or something.

Lex Fridman (2:01:07.160)

Yeah, a tripwire through everything.

Lex Fridman (2:01:10.400)

And not paranoid tripwise, just like open door.

Lex Fridman (2:01:13.440)

But I think that's probably the future of life on this earth

Andrew Bustamante (2:01:17.520)

is you're going, like everybody of interest

Lex Fridman (2:01:19.440)

is going to be hacked.

Andrew Bustamante (2:01:21.560)

That hopefully inspires, now this is outside of company.

Lex Fridman (2:01:25.040)

These are individuals.

Andrew Bustamante (2:01:25.960)

I mean, there is, of course, if you're actually operating,

Lex Fridman (2:01:30.120)

like I'm just a, who am I?

Andrew Bustamante (2:01:31.480)

I'm just a scientist person, podcasting person.

Lex Fridman (2:01:36.240)

So if I was actually running a company

Andrew Bustamante (2:01:41.200)

or was an integral part of some kind of military operation,

Lex Fridman (2:01:46.720)

then you probably have to have an entire team that's now

Andrew Bustamante (2:01:50.240)

doing that battle of trying to be ahead of the best hackers

Lex Fridman (2:01:55.840)

in the world that are attacking.

Lex Fridman (2:01:57.440)

But that requires a team that full time is their focus.

Lex Fridman (2:02:01.680)

And then you still get in trouble.

Andrew Bustamante (2:02:03.400)

Correct, yeah.

Lex Fridman (2:02:04.160)

So what I've seen as the norm, well, what I've seen

Andrew Bustamante (2:02:07.240)

is the cutting edge standard for corporations

Lex Fridman (2:02:11.160)

and the ultra wealthy and even intelligence organizations

Andrew Bustamante (2:02:16.880)

is that we have tripwires.

Lex Fridman (2:02:19.240)

It's better if you can't prevent from being hacked.

Andrew Bustamante (2:02:22.760)

The next best thing is to know as soon as you get hacked

Lex Fridman (2:02:26.520)

because then you can essentially terminate all the information.

Andrew Bustamante (2:02:30.280)

If you know it fast enough, you can just

Lex Fridman (2:02:31.880)

destroy the information.

Andrew Bustamante (2:02:32.880)

This is what the ultra wealthy do.

Lex Fridman (2:02:34.320)

They have multiple phones.

Lex Fridman (2:02:35.960)

So as soon as one phone gets hacked, the tripwire goes off.

Lex Fridman (2:02:38.720)

The operating system is totally deleted along

Andrew Bustamante (2:02:40.600)

with all data on the phone.

Lex Fridman (2:02:41.920)

And a second phone is turned on with a whole new separate set

Andrew Bustamante (2:02:46.080)

of metadata.

Lex Fridman (2:02:47.400)

And now for them, there's no break in service.

Andrew Bustamante (2:02:49.760)

It's just, oh, this phone went black.

Lex Fridman (2:02:51.920)

It's got a warning on it that says it was hacked.

Lex Fridman (2:02:54.080)

So trash it because they don't care

Lex Fridman (2:02:55.440)

about the price of the phone.

Andrew Bustamante (2:02:56.560)

Pick up the next phone, and we move on.

Lex Fridman (2:02:58.680)

That's the best thing that you can do essentially outside

Andrew Bustamante (2:03:01.520)

of trying to out hack the hackers.

Lex Fridman (2:03:04.000)

And then even in your intelligence and military

Andrew Bustamante (2:03:06.520)

worlds where cyber warfare is active,

Lex Fridman (2:03:09.480)

the people who are aggressing are not

Andrew Bustamante (2:03:12.120)

trying to create aggression that beats security.

Lex Fridman (2:03:16.400)

They're trying to find aggressive techniques,

Andrew Bustamante (2:03:19.240)

offensive techniques that have no security built around them

Lex Fridman (2:03:22.440)

yet.

Andrew Bustamante (2:03:23.200)

Because it's too cost and time intensive

Lex Fridman (2:03:25.960)

to protect against what you know is coming,

Andrew Bustamante (2:03:28.760)

it's so much more efficient and cost effective

Lex Fridman (2:03:30.840)

to go after new vectors.

Lex Fridman (2:03:32.760)

So it just becomes like, it becomes almost a silly game

Lex Fridman (2:03:37.760)

of your neighbor gets a guard dog.

Lex Fridman (2:03:41.240)

So you get a bigger guard dog.

Lex Fridman (2:03:43.040)

And then your neighbor gets a fence.

Lex Fridman (2:03:45.040)

So you're just constantly outdoing each other.

Lex Fridman (2:03:46.320)

It's called the security paradigm.

Andrew Bustamante (2:03:48.560)

People just, they just one up each other

Lex Fridman (2:03:50.660)

because it's never worth it to just get to the same level.

Andrew Bustamante (2:03:53.060)

You're always trying to outdo each other.

Lex Fridman (2:03:54.600)

Yeah, then maybe like banks have to fight that fight,

Lex Fridman (2:03:58.100)

but not everybody can.

Lex Fridman (2:03:59.820)

Right.

Andrew Bustamante (2:04:00.660)

Yeah, no.

Lex Fridman (2:04:01.480)

So you're saying I operated at the state of the art

Andrew Bustamante (2:04:03.280)

with the trip wires.

Lex Fridman (2:04:04.120)

This is good to know.

Andrew Bustamante (2:04:04.960)

Absolutely, man.

Lex Fridman (2:04:06.200)

And also just not using anybody else's services,

Andrew Bustamante (2:04:10.080)

doing everything myself.

Lex Fridman (2:04:12.600)

So that's harder to figure out what the heck

Andrew Bustamante (2:04:14.340)

this person is doing.

Lex Fridman (2:04:15.180)

Because if I'm using somebody else's service,

Andrew Bustamante (2:04:17.040)

like I did with QNAP,

Lex Fridman (2:04:21.680)

I have a QNAP NAS I use for cold storage

Andrew Bustamante (2:04:24.480)

of unimportant things, but a large videos.

Lex Fridman (2:04:27.280)

And I don't know if you know, but QNAP is a company

Andrew Bustamante (2:04:29.700)

that does NAS storage devices, and they got hacked.

Lex Fridman (2:04:34.000)

And everybody that didn't update as of a week ago

Andrew Bustamante (2:04:38.800)

from the point of the zero day hack, everybody got hacked.

Lex Fridman (2:04:42.520)

It's several thousand machines, and they asked,

Andrew Bustamante (2:04:48.020)

you can get your data back if you pay,

Lex Fridman (2:04:50.560)

I forget what it was, but it was,

Andrew Bustamante (2:04:53.000)

it was about a couple thousand dollars.

Lex Fridman (2:04:55.360)

And QNAP can get all the data back for their customers

Andrew Bustamante (2:04:59.080)

if they pay, I think, two million dollars.

Lex Fridman (2:05:01.080)

Wow.

Lex Fridman (2:05:01.960)

But that came from me relying on the systems

Lex Fridman (2:05:04.560)

of others for security.

Andrew Bustamante (2:05:05.600)

I assumed this company would have their security handled,

Lex Fridman (2:05:10.600)

but then that was a very valuable lesson to me.

Andrew Bustamante (2:05:13.200)

I now have layers of security and also an understanding

Lex Fridman (2:05:19.760)

which data is really important, which is somewhat important,

Andrew Bustamante (2:05:22.720)

which is not that important, and layering that all together.

Lex Fridman (2:05:26.360)

So just so you know, the US government, the military,

Andrew Bustamante (2:05:28.880)

woke up to that exact same thing about two years ago.

Lex Fridman (2:05:31.800)

It's still very new.

Andrew Bustamante (2:05:33.280)

I mean, they were sourcing,

Lex Fridman (2:05:35.240)

take night vision goggles, for example.

Andrew Bustamante (2:05:37.400)

They were sourcing components and engineering

Lex Fridman (2:05:39.880)

and blueprints for night vision goggles

Andrew Bustamante (2:05:41.560)

from three, four, five different subcontractors

Lex Fridman (2:05:43.880)

all over the country, but they never asked themselves

Lex Fridman (2:05:47.040)

what the security status was of those subcontractors.

Lex Fridman (2:05:50.520)

So fast forward a few years, and all of a sudden,

Andrew Bustamante (2:05:55.920)

they start getting faulty components.

Lex Fridman (2:05:57.760)

They start having night vision goggles that don't work.

Andrew Bustamante (2:05:59.920)

They start having supply chain issues

Lex Fridman (2:06:01.960)

where they have to change their provider,

Lex Fridman (2:06:04.360)

and the army doesn't know that the provider is changing.

Lex Fridman (2:06:07.640)

I mean, this is a strategy.

Andrew Bustamante (2:06:09.180)

The idea of going through third party systems

Lex Fridman (2:06:12.720)

is identifying the vulnerability in the supply chain.

Andrew Bustamante (2:06:15.360)

That's a savvy offensive practice

Lex Fridman (2:06:20.000)

for more than just cyber hackers.

Andrew Bustamante (2:06:24.280)

Let me ask you about physical hacking.

Lex Fridman (2:06:26.560)

So I'm now, like I'm an introvert,

Lex Fridman (2:06:29.200)

so I'm paranoid about all social interaction,

Lex Fridman (2:06:31.360)

but how much truth is there?

Andrew Bustamante (2:06:35.700)

It's kind of a funny question.

Lex Fridman (2:06:37.480)

How suspicious should I be when I'm traveling in Ukraine

Andrew Bustamante (2:06:40.440)

or different parts of the world

Lex Fridman (2:06:42.000)

when an attractive female walks up to me

Lex Fridman (2:06:44.320)

and shows any kind of attention?

Lex Fridman (2:06:46.880)

Is that like this kind of James Bond spy movie stuff,

Lex Fridman (2:06:49.900)

or is that kind of stuff used by intelligence agencies?

Lex Fridman (2:06:54.020)

I don't think it's used.

Andrew Bustamante (2:06:55.800)

It's absolutely used.

Lex Fridman (2:06:56.700)

It's called sexpionage.

Andrew Bustamante (2:06:58.880)

That's the term that we jokingly call it, is sexpionage.

Lex Fridman (2:07:02.680)

But yeah, the art of attraction, appeal,

Andrew Bustamante (2:07:05.940)

the manifestation of feelings through sexual manipulation,

Lex Fridman (2:07:11.380)

all of that is a super powerful tool.

Andrew Bustamante (2:07:14.320)

The Chinese use it extremely well.

Lex Fridman (2:07:15.740)

The Russians use it extremely well.

Andrew Bustamante (2:07:18.020)

In the United States,

Lex Fridman (2:07:19.280)

we actively train our officers not to use it

Andrew Bustamante (2:07:23.100)

because in the end it leads to complications

Lex Fridman (2:07:26.680)

in how you professionally run a case.

Lex Fridman (2:07:28.380)

So we train our officers not to use it.

Lex Fridman (2:07:30.100)

However, you can't control what other people think.

Lex Fridman (2:07:33.340)

So if you're an attractive male

Lex Fridman (2:07:34.700)

or an attractive female officer,

Lex Fridman (2:07:36.060)

and you're trying to talk to an older general

Lex Fridman (2:07:40.420)

who just happens to be gay or happens to be straight

Lex Fridman (2:07:43.300)

and is attracted to you,

Lex Fridman (2:07:44.620)

of course they're gonna be that much more willing

Andrew Bustamante (2:07:45.940)

to talk to an American who is also attractive.

Lex Fridman (2:07:48.840)

So it's hard to walk that back.

Andrew Bustamante (2:07:50.740)

In all definitions.

Lex Fridman (2:07:51.620)

So it could be all elements of charisma.

Lex Fridman (2:07:56.220)

So attractiveness in a dynamic sense of the word.

Lex Fridman (2:08:00.940)

So it's visual attractiveness,

Lex Fridman (2:08:02.140)

but the smile, the humor, the wit, the flirting,

Lex Fridman (2:08:05.660)

all that kind of stuff that could be used

Andrew Bustamante (2:08:07.720)

to the art of conversation.

Lex Fridman (2:08:10.740)

There's also elements of sexuality

Lex Fridman (2:08:12.500)

that people underestimate, right?

Lex Fridman (2:08:14.740)

So physical sexuality, physical attraction

Andrew Bustamante (2:08:17.220)

is the most obvious one.

Lex Fridman (2:08:18.060)

It's the one that everybody talks about and thinks about.

Lex Fridman (2:08:20.560)

But then there's also sapiosexuality,

Lex Fridman (2:08:23.180)

which is being sexually attracted to thoughts,

Andrew Bustamante (2:08:27.140)

to intelligence.

Lex Fridman (2:08:28.500)

And then you've got all the various varieties

Andrew Bustamante (2:08:31.140)

of personal preferences.

Lex Fridman (2:08:34.060)

Some people like people of a certain color skin,

Andrew Bustamante (2:08:36.660)

or they like big noses, they like small noses,

Lex Fridman (2:08:39.100)

they like big butts, they like small butts,

Andrew Bustamante (2:08:40.740)

they like tall guys, they like bald guys,

Lex Fridman (2:08:42.220)

whatever it might be.

Andrew Bustamante (2:08:43.900)

You can't ever predict what someone's preferences,

Lex Fridman (2:08:47.220)

sexual arousal preferences are going to be.

Lex Fridman (2:08:50.940)

So then you end up walking into a situation

Lex Fridman (2:08:53.500)

where then you discover, and just imagine,

Andrew Bustamante (2:08:56.540)

imagine being an unattractive, overweight, married guy,

Lex Fridman (2:09:01.140)

and you're walking into an asset or a target meeting

Andrew Bustamante (2:09:04.780)

with like a middle aged female

Lex Fridman (2:09:06.540)

who is also not very attractive and also married.

Lex Fridman (2:09:09.020)

But then it turns out that that person is a sapiosexual

Lex Fridman (2:09:11.700)

and gets extremely turned on by intelligent conversation.

Andrew Bustamante (2:09:14.580)

That's exactly what you're there to do.

Lex Fridman (2:09:16.860)

Your mission is to have intelligent conversation

Andrew Bustamante (2:09:20.100)

with this person to find out if they have access to secrets.

Lex Fridman (2:09:22.300)

And by virtue of you carrying out your mission,

Andrew Bustamante (2:09:24.600)

they become extremely aroused and attracted to you.

Lex Fridman (2:09:26.740)

That is a very complicated situation.

Andrew Bustamante (2:09:29.380)

It's hard to know who to trust.

Lex Fridman (2:09:30.740)

Like, how do you know your wife,

Andrew Bustamante (2:09:32.700)

or how does your wife know

Lex Fridman (2:09:33.620)

that you're not a double agent from Russia?

Andrew Bustamante (2:09:37.420)

There's a large element of experience and time

Lex Fridman (2:09:42.040)

that goes into that.

Andrew Bustamante (2:09:43.140)

She's also trained.

Lex Fridman (2:09:45.260)

And I think my wife and I also.

Andrew Bustamante (2:09:47.100)

Actually you think.

Lex Fridman (2:09:48.420)

My wife and I also have the benefit

Andrew Bustamante (2:09:50.380)

of being recruited young and together where.

Lex Fridman (2:09:56.660)

So over time you can start to figure out things

Andrew Bustamante (2:09:58.740)

that are very difficult to.

Lex Fridman (2:10:02.060)

So you form the baseline,

Andrew Bustamante (2:10:03.400)

you start to understand the person's very,

Lex Fridman (2:10:04.780)

it becomes very difficult to lie.

Andrew Bustamante (2:10:06.100)

The most difficult thing in the world is consistency.

Lex Fridman (2:10:08.340)

It's the most difficult thing in the world.

Andrew Bustamante (2:10:10.460)

Some people say that discipline or self discipline,

Lex Fridman (2:10:12.900)

what they're really talking about is consistency.

Andrew Bustamante (2:10:14.780)

When you have someone who performs consistently

Lex Fridman (2:10:17.240)

over long periods of time, under various levels of stress,

Andrew Bustamante (2:10:20.500)

you have high, high confidence

Lex Fridman (2:10:21.940)

that that is the person that you can trust.

Andrew Bustamante (2:10:23.620)

You can trust, again,

Lex Fridman (2:10:25.700)

you can trust them to behave within a certain pattern.

Andrew Bustamante (2:10:30.220)

You can trust an asshole to be an asshole

Lex Fridman (2:10:33.160)

without trusting the asshole

Lex Fridman (2:10:34.780)

to take care of your kids, right?

Lex Fridman (2:10:36.700)

So I don't ever wanna mix up the idea of personal trust

Andrew Bustamante (2:10:40.020)

versus trusting the outcome.

Lex Fridman (2:10:42.380)

You can always trust a person

Andrew Bustamante (2:10:44.020)

to operate within their pattern of behavior.

Lex Fridman (2:10:45.700)

It just takes time for you to get a consistent,

Andrew Bustamante (2:10:49.340)

to get consistent feedback

Lex Fridman (2:10:50.500)

as to what that baseline is for them.

Andrew Bustamante (2:10:52.220)

To form a good model, predictive model

Lex Fridman (2:10:55.260)

of what their behavior is going to be like.

Andrew Bustamante (2:10:57.060)

Right, and you know, it's fascinating is I think

Lex Fridman (2:10:59.420)

the challenge is building that model quickly.

Lex Fridman (2:11:03.260)

So technology is one of those tools

Lex Fridman (2:11:05.820)

that will be able in the future

Andrew Bustamante (2:11:07.020)

to very quickly create a model of behavior

Lex Fridman (2:11:10.140)

because technology can pull in multiple data points

Andrew Bustamante (2:11:13.620)

in a very short period of time

Lex Fridman (2:11:15.260)

that the human brain simply can't pull in

Andrew Bustamante (2:11:17.820)

at the same space, at the same speed.

Lex Fridman (2:11:20.500)

That's actually what I did my PhD on.

Andrew Bustamante (2:11:22.300)

That's what I did at Google

Lex Fridman (2:11:23.460)

is forming a good representation,

Andrew Bustamante (2:11:25.980)

unique representation in the entire world

Lex Fridman (2:11:29.300)

based on the behavior of the person.

Andrew Bustamante (2:11:31.220)

The specific task there is

Lex Fridman (2:11:33.020)

so that you don't have to type in the password.

Andrew Bustamante (2:11:35.780)

The idea was to replace the password.

Lex Fridman (2:11:38.100)

But it also allows you to actually study human behavior

Lex Fridman (2:11:40.700)

and to think, all right,

Lex Fridman (2:11:41.700)

what is the unique representation of a person?

Andrew Bustamante (2:11:44.360)

How, because we have very specific patterns

Lex Fridman (2:11:48.780)

and a lot of humans are very similar in those patterns,

Lex Fridman (2:11:51.280)

what are the unique identifiers

Lex Fridman (2:11:52.940)

within those patterns of behavior?

Lex Fridman (2:11:55.140)

And I think that's, from a psychology perspective,

Lex Fridman (2:11:57.540)

a super fascinating question.

Lex Fridman (2:11:59.060)

And from a machine learning perspective,

Lex Fridman (2:12:00.940)

it's something that you can,

Andrew Bustamante (2:12:02.260)

as the systems get better and better and better,

Lex Fridman (2:12:04.460)

and as we get more and more digital data

Andrew Bustamante (2:12:07.140)

about each individual, you start to get,

Lex Fridman (2:12:09.580)

you start to be able to do that kind of thing effectively.

Lex Fridman (2:12:11.740)

And it's, I mean, when I think of the fact

Lex Fridman (2:12:13.160)

that you could create a dossier on somebody

Andrew Bustamante (2:12:14.960)

in a matter of 24 or 48 hours,

Lex Fridman (2:12:16.900)

if you could wire them for two days, right?

Andrew Bustamante (2:12:21.100)

Internet of Things style,

Lex Fridman (2:12:22.300)

you put it in their underwear or whatever, right?

Andrew Bustamante (2:12:23.740)

Some chip that just reads everything.

Lex Fridman (2:12:26.380)

How heavy are they walking?

Lex Fridman (2:12:27.540)

How much time do they sleep?

Lex Fridman (2:12:28.900)

How many times do they open the refrigerator?

Lex Fridman (2:12:30.540)

When they log into their computer, how do they do it?

Lex Fridman (2:12:32.500)

Like, which hand do they use when they log in?

Lex Fridman (2:12:34.940)

What's their most common swipe?

Lex Fridman (2:12:36.860)

What's their most visited website?

Andrew Bustamante (2:12:38.380)

You could collect an enormous amount of normative data

Lex Fridman (2:12:42.680)

in a short period of time where otherwise we're stuck.

Andrew Bustamante (2:12:45.940)

The way that we do it now, once or twice a week,

Lex Fridman (2:12:48.860)

we go out for a coffee for two hours.

Lex Fridman (2:12:51.100)

And two hours at a time over the course of six,

Lex Fridman (2:12:53.420)

eight weeks, 12 weeks, you're coming up with a 50%

Andrew Bustamante (2:12:57.500)

assessment on how you think this person is going to behave.

Lex Fridman (2:13:00.820)

Just that time savings is immense.

Andrew Bustamante (2:13:03.660)

Something you've also spoken about is private intelligence

Lex Fridman (2:13:06.300)

and the power and the reach and the scale

Lex Fridman (2:13:10.580)

and the importance of private intelligence

Lex Fridman (2:13:12.300)

versus government intelligence.

Lex Fridman (2:13:13.480)

Can you elaborate on the role of what is private intelligence

Lex Fridman (2:13:16.980)

and what's the role of private intelligence

Andrew Bustamante (2:13:19.500)

in the scope of all the intelligence

Lex Fridman (2:13:22.300)

that is gathered and used in the United States?

Andrew Bustamante (2:13:26.340)

Yeah, absolutely.

Lex Fridman (2:13:27.180)

It's something that so few people know about.

Lex Fridman (2:13:30.620)

And it became a more mainstream topic

Lex Fridman (2:13:33.920)

with the Trump administration.

Andrew Bustamante (2:13:35.780)

Because Trump made it no secret that he was going to hire

Lex Fridman (2:13:39.020)

private intelligence organizations

Andrew Bustamante (2:13:40.320)

to run his intelligence operations.

Lex Fridman (2:13:42.140)

And fund them.

Lex Fridman (2:13:43.140)

So that really brought it to the mainstream.

Lex Fridman (2:13:44.940)

But going all the way back to 9 11,

Andrew Bustamante (2:13:46.860)

going all the way back to 2001,

Lex Fridman (2:13:48.900)

when the 9 11 attacks happened,

Andrew Bustamante (2:13:51.980)

there was a commission that was formed

Lex Fridman (2:13:56.140)

to determine the reasons that 9 11 happened.

Lex Fridman (2:14:00.700)

And among the lists that they determined,

Lex Fridman (2:14:02.460)

of course they found out that the intelligence community

Andrew Bustamante (2:14:04.180)

wasn't coordinating well with each other.

Lex Fridman (2:14:06.320)

There were fiefdoms and there was infighting

Lex Fridman (2:14:08.320)

and there wasn't good intel sharing.

Lex Fridman (2:14:10.340)

But more than that, they identified

Andrew Bustamante (2:14:11.920)

that we were operating at Cold War levels,

Lex Fridman (2:14:16.140)

even though we were living in a time

Andrew Bustamante (2:14:18.260)

when terrorism was the new biggest threat

Lex Fridman (2:14:20.460)

to national security.

Lex Fridman (2:14:22.020)

So the big recommendation coming out of the 9 11 commission

Lex Fridman (2:14:25.540)

was that the intelligence organizations,

Andrew Bustamante (2:14:27.420)

the intelligence community significantly increased

Lex Fridman (2:14:30.100)

the presence of intelligence operators overseas

Lex Fridman (2:14:33.060)

and in terms of analytical capacity

Lex Fridman (2:14:36.140)

here in the United States.

Andrew Bustamante (2:14:38.180)

When they made that decision,

Lex Fridman (2:14:40.440)

it completely destroyed, it totally was incongruent

Andrew Bustamante (2:14:44.760)

with the existing hiring process

Lex Fridman (2:14:46.360)

because the existing hiring process for CIA or NSA

Andrew Bustamante (2:14:48.740)

is a six to nine month process.

Lex Fridman (2:14:51.060)

The only way they could plus up their sizes fast enough

Andrew Bustamante (2:14:55.180)

was to bypass their own hiring

Lex Fridman (2:14:57.820)

and instead go direct to private organizations.

Lex Fridman (2:15:00.760)

So naturally the government contracted with the companies

Lex Fridman (2:15:04.940)

that they already had secure contracts with,

Andrew Bustamante (2:15:07.680)

Boeing, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, Khaki, you name it.

Lex Fridman (2:15:12.820)

And then over time from 2001 to now,

Andrew Bustamante (2:15:15.380)

or I guess that started really in 2004

Lex Fridman (2:15:17.520)

when they started significantly increasing

Andrew Bustamante (2:15:19.820)

the presence of private intelligence officers.

Lex Fridman (2:15:22.900)

From then until now, it's become a budgetary thing.

Andrew Bustamante (2:15:26.540)

It's become a continuity of operations thing.

Lex Fridman (2:15:30.240)

And now the reason Northern Virginia

Andrew Bustamante (2:15:33.820)

has become one of the wealthiest zip codes in America

Lex Fridman (2:15:37.620)

is because of the incredible concentration

Andrew Bustamante (2:15:40.180)

of private intelligence that is supporting CIA, NSA,

Lex Fridman (2:15:43.400)

DIA, FBI, and all the slew of IC partners.

Lex Fridman (2:15:46.900)

By the way, does Palantir play a role in this?

Lex Fridman (2:15:49.260)

Palantir is one of those organizations

Andrew Bustamante (2:15:51.160)

that was trying to pitch their product

Lex Fridman (2:15:54.100)

to an intelligence community because they have,

Andrew Bustamante (2:15:57.420)

it's a fantastic product on paper.

Lex Fridman (2:16:01.000)

But the challenge was the proprietary services,

Andrew Bustamante (2:16:05.260)

the proprietary systems that we current that we used

Lex Fridman (2:16:08.100)

in CIA prior to Palantir continued to outperform Palantir.

Lex Fridman (2:16:13.460)

So just like any other business decision,

Lex Fridman (2:16:16.380)

if you've got homegrown systems

Andrew Bustamante (2:16:18.660)

that outperform external systems,

Lex Fridman (2:16:20.220)

then it's not worth it to share the internal information.

Andrew Bustamante (2:16:23.380)

Got it.

Lex Fridman (2:16:24.260)

So what the close connection between Peter Thiel

Lex Fridman (2:16:29.660)

and Donald Trump, did that have a role to play

Lex Fridman (2:16:33.100)

in Donald Trump's leveraging of private intelligence

Lex Fridman (2:16:38.860)

or is that completely disjoint?

Lex Fridman (2:16:40.620)

I think that they're related but only circumstantially.

Andrew Bustamante (2:16:45.520)

Because remember, Donald Trump

Lex Fridman (2:16:46.700)

wasn't really investing in CIA.

Lex Fridman (2:16:48.980)

So the last thing he wanted to do

Lex Fridman (2:16:51.080)

was spend his network, WASTA,

Andrew Bustamante (2:16:54.420)

WASTA is a term that we call influence,

Lex Fridman (2:16:56.220)

it's an Arabic term for influence.

Andrew Bustamante (2:16:58.080)

Trump didn't wanna use his WASTA putting Thiel into CIA

Lex Fridman (2:17:02.060)

only to lose Thiel's contract

Andrew Bustamante (2:17:03.740)

as soon as Trump left office.

Lex Fridman (2:17:04.900)

So instead, it was more valuable to put Peter Thiel's tool

Andrew Bustamante (2:17:08.040)

to use in private intelligence.

Lex Fridman (2:17:09.420)

And then of course, I think he nominated Peter Thiel

Andrew Bustamante (2:17:11.360)

to be his Secretary of Defense, Secretary of State.

Lex Fridman (2:17:15.420)

At some point in time, he tried to present,

Andrew Bustamante (2:17:17.180)

like presidentially appoint Peter Thiel

Lex Fridman (2:17:19.100)

into a position of government authority.

Lex Fridman (2:17:23.140)

What do you think of figures like Peter Thiel?

Lex Fridman (2:17:27.740)

Do they wield, and I'm sure there's figures

Andrew Bustamante (2:17:30.860)

of similar scale and reach and power

Lex Fridman (2:17:35.260)

in private intelligence.

Lex Fridman (2:17:37.140)

What do you think about their role and power

Lex Fridman (2:17:40.660)

in this whole, like without public accountability

Lex Fridman (2:17:44.460)

that you would think directors of CIA perhaps have?

Lex Fridman (2:17:47.220)

So this is where private intelligence

Andrew Bustamante (2:17:49.920)

has both a strength and a weakness.

Lex Fridman (2:17:53.100)

The ultimate law overriding,

Andrew Bustamante (2:17:56.180)

that's overseeing private intelligence

Lex Fridman (2:17:58.140)

is not government legislation.

Andrew Bustamante (2:18:03.600)

It's the law of economics.

Lex Fridman (2:18:05.560)

If they produce a superior product,

Andrew Bustamante (2:18:07.520)

then they will have a buyer.

Lex Fridman (2:18:09.320)

If they do not produce a superior product,

Andrew Bustamante (2:18:11.300)

they will not have a buyer.

Lex Fridman (2:18:13.460)

And that's a very simple business principle.

Andrew Bustamante (2:18:16.300)

Whereas in the current national security infrastructure,

Lex Fridman (2:18:20.800)

you can create a crap product,

Lex Fridman (2:18:22.900)

but the taxpayer dollars are always going to be spent.

Lex Fridman (2:18:25.700)

So it's really thrown things for a loop.

Andrew Bustamante (2:18:28.100)

Especially during the Trump administration.

Lex Fridman (2:18:29.760)

And this is one of the things that I will always say

Andrew Bustamante (2:18:32.240)

I liked about the Trump administration.

Lex Fridman (2:18:34.660)

It shown, it put a big blazing bright light

Andrew Bustamante (2:18:38.700)

on all of the flaws within our system.

Lex Fridman (2:18:41.720)

One of those flaws being this executive power

Andrew Bustamante (2:18:45.680)

over the intelligence organizations

Lex Fridman (2:18:47.400)

and the lack of accountability

Andrew Bustamante (2:18:50.460)

for intelligence organizations to produce a superior product.

Lex Fridman (2:18:53.460)

When that light got shown down,

Andrew Bustamante (2:18:59.080)

that's when you also saw Trump start to go after,

Lex Fridman (2:19:01.640)

if you remember, there was a period

Andrew Bustamante (2:19:02.960)

where he was taking security clearances away

Lex Fridman (2:19:04.680)

from retiring officers.

Andrew Bustamante (2:19:06.480)

That became a big hot issue.

Lex Fridman (2:19:08.760)

That became something that people were very opposed to

Andrew Bustamante (2:19:11.600)

when they didn't realize that that process

Lex Fridman (2:19:14.880)

of taking security clearances away,

Andrew Bustamante (2:19:17.160)

that incentivized seasoned senior officers

Lex Fridman (2:19:19.960)

to stay in service.

Andrew Bustamante (2:19:21.800)

Because with private intelligence

Lex Fridman (2:19:23.260)

paying a premium during the Trump administration,

Andrew Bustamante (2:19:25.320)

because Trump was paying a premium

Lex Fridman (2:19:26.980)

to the private intelligence world,

Andrew Bustamante (2:19:29.220)

when senior officers found that it was more profitable

Lex Fridman (2:19:33.060)

to retire early, keep their clearance,

Lex Fridman (2:19:35.600)

and go work for Raytheon, Trump saw that

Lex Fridman (2:19:38.440)

as bypassing service to the American people.

Andrew Bustamante (2:19:41.500)

You've made a career in CIA, you've made a career in NSA,

Lex Fridman (2:19:44.040)

you should stay there.

Andrew Bustamante (2:19:44.960)

If you leave, you lose your clearance

Lex Fridman (2:19:46.760)

because you no longer have a need to know.

Andrew Bustamante (2:19:49.280)

He upset the apple cart with that.

Lex Fridman (2:19:51.920)

And unfortunately, the narrative that came out

Andrew Bustamante (2:19:54.200)

in many ways was a negative narrative against Trump,

Lex Fridman (2:19:56.400)

when in fact, he was actually doing quite a service

Andrew Bustamante (2:20:00.120)

to the American people, trying to take away

Lex Fridman (2:20:03.520)

the incentive of senior officials leaving their service

Andrew Bustamante (2:20:07.800)

in order to just profiteer in the private intelligence.

Lex Fridman (2:20:10.280)

So in that way, he was kind of supporting the CIA

Andrew Bustamante (2:20:15.500)

in making sure that competent people

Lex Fridman (2:20:19.860)

and experienced people stay in CIA,

Andrew Bustamante (2:20:22.720)

are incentivized to stay there.

Lex Fridman (2:20:24.000)

Correct, I think that there was definitely,

Andrew Bustamante (2:20:27.520)

he understood incentives.

Lex Fridman (2:20:29.040)

I mean, Donald Trump understands incentives.

Lex Fridman (2:20:32.280)

So he was trying to incentivize them to stay,

Lex Fridman (2:20:34.200)

but I think he was also playing a safety card

Andrew Bustamante (2:20:36.840)

because he didn't want former CIA officials

Lex Fridman (2:20:40.200)

who were not listening to him

Andrew Bustamante (2:20:42.160)

to then move into private intel organizations

Lex Fridman (2:20:44.180)

that he may be hiring, only to then have them undermine him

Andrew Bustamante (2:20:47.800)

from both sides of the coin.

Lex Fridman (2:20:49.480)

So there was a little bit of offensive calculation

Andrew Bustamante (2:20:53.200)

in there as well.

Lex Fridman (2:20:54.040)

But do the dynamics and the incentives of economics

Andrew Bustamante (2:20:56.720)

that you referred to that the private intelligence

Lex Fridman (2:20:58.820)

operates under, is that more or less ethical

Lex Fridman (2:21:01.920)

than the forces that maybe government agencies operate under?

Lex Fridman (2:21:07.560)

What's your intuition?

Andrew Bustamante (2:21:08.560)

Is capitalism lead, so you mentioned it leads

Lex Fridman (2:21:12.760)

to maximizations of efficiency and performance,

Lex Fridman (2:21:16.900)

but is that correlated with ethical behavior

Lex Fridman (2:21:19.920)

when we're talking about such hairy activities

Lex Fridman (2:21:24.080)

like collection of intelligence?

Lex Fridman (2:21:26.180)

The question of ethics is a great question.

Lex Fridman (2:21:27.920)

So let me start this whole thing out by saying,

Lex Fridman (2:21:31.640)

CIA hires people on a spectrum

Andrew Bustamante (2:21:36.640)

of our ability to be morally flexible, ethically flexible.

Lex Fridman (2:21:41.880)

All people at their heart are ethically flexible.

Lex Fridman (2:21:45.340)

I would never punch somebody in the face, right?

Lex Fridman (2:21:48.080)

Some people out there would say,

Andrew Bustamante (2:21:49.040)

I would never hurt another human being.

Lex Fridman (2:21:51.160)

But as soon as a human being posed a direct threat

Andrew Bustamante (2:21:53.720)

to their daughter or their son or their mother,

Lex Fridman (2:21:56.840)

now all of a sudden they're gonna change

Lex Fridman (2:21:58.100)

their ethical stance in self defense, right?

Lex Fridman (2:22:01.520)

But at the end of the day,

Andrew Bustamante (2:22:02.340)

it's still hurting another person.

Lex Fridman (2:22:05.280)

So what CIA looks for is people who are able

Lex Fridman (2:22:07.520)

to swing across that spectrum for lesser offenses, right?

Lex Fridman (2:22:12.520)

More flexibility.

Andrew Bustamante (2:22:15.600)

I do not believe that private intelligence

Lex Fridman (2:22:18.880)

and the laws of economics lend themselves

Andrew Bustamante (2:22:21.520)

to increased ethics or increased ethical behavior

Lex Fridman (2:22:25.640)

in the short term.

Lex Fridman (2:22:27.840)

But what ends up happening is that in the long term,

Lex Fridman (2:22:31.280)

in order to scale economic benefits,

Andrew Bustamante (2:22:34.560)

you are forced to act within norms of your customer base.

Lex Fridman (2:22:39.560)

So as the norms of that customer base

Andrew Bustamante (2:22:42.040)

dictate certain requirements,

Lex Fridman (2:22:44.240)

the company has to adapt to those requirements

Andrew Bustamante (2:22:46.680)

in order to continue to scale.

Lex Fridman (2:22:49.040)

So if a company tries to ostracize LGBTQ

Andrew Bustamante (2:22:54.680)

or if they try to ostracize men or ostracize women,

Lex Fridman (2:22:58.680)

they're limiting their ability to grow economically.

Andrew Bustamante (2:23:01.640)

They have to adapt to whatever is the prevailing

Lex Fridman (2:23:05.720)

ethical requirement of their customer base.

Andrew Bustamante (2:23:09.480)

That's such an interesting question

Lex Fridman (2:23:10.320)

because you look at big pharma and pharmaceutical companies,

Lex Fridman (2:23:14.400)

and they have quite a poor reputation in the public eye.

Lex Fridman (2:23:20.080)

And some of it, maybe much of it is deserved,

Andrew Bustamante (2:23:23.920)

at least historically speaking.

Lex Fridman (2:23:26.160)

And so you start to wonder, well,

Andrew Bustamante (2:23:28.560)

can intelligence agencies use some of the same methods

Lex Fridman (2:23:33.560)

or can these use some of the same technique

Andrew Bustamante (2:23:36.520)

to manipulate the public,

Lex Fridman (2:23:40.160)

like what they believe about those agencies

Lex Fridman (2:23:42.920)

in order to maximize profit as well?

Lex Fridman (2:23:45.040)

Sort of finding shortcuts or unethical paths

Andrew Bustamante (2:23:49.920)

that allow you to not be ultimately

Lex Fridman (2:23:53.600)

responsible to the customer.

Andrew Bustamante (2:23:55.040)

Absolutely.

Lex Fridman (2:23:56.040)

And I would go a step further to say that

Andrew Bustamante (2:23:58.800)

the covert nature of intelligence operations

Lex Fridman (2:24:01.880)

is really attractive when it comes to the private sector,

Andrew Bustamante (2:24:06.400)

because now they have all the same money

Lex Fridman (2:24:08.960)

with none of the oversight,

Lex Fridman (2:24:10.880)

and all they have to do is deliver.

Lex Fridman (2:24:13.240)

So without the oversight, what's holding you back?

Lex Fridman (2:24:17.440)

And for anybody who's ever run a business,

Lex Fridman (2:24:20.520)

anybody who's ever started a startup

Andrew Bustamante (2:24:21.760)

or tried to make something succeed,

Lex Fridman (2:24:23.080)

we all know that there come those times

Andrew Bustamante (2:24:25.360)

where you have to skirt the boundaries

Lex Fridman (2:24:28.840)

of propriety or morality or commitments

Andrew Bustamante (2:24:34.280)

or promises to other people,

Lex Fridman (2:24:35.720)

because at the end of the day,

Andrew Bustamante (2:24:37.640)

if your business fails, it's on you.

Lex Fridman (2:24:39.960)

So if you promise to deliver something to a client,

Andrew Bustamante (2:24:43.880)

you've got to deliver it to the client,

Lex Fridman (2:24:44.960)

even if that means you stay up late

Andrew Bustamante (2:24:47.320)

or if you lie on your taxes, whatever it might be,

Lex Fridman (2:24:49.920)

there's a certain level of do or die.

Andrew Bustamante (2:24:52.280)

Yeah, I personally have a sort of optimistic view

Lex Fridman (2:24:55.360)

that ultimately the best way is to stay

Andrew Bustamante (2:25:00.200)

within the ethical bounds, kind of like what you suggested.

Lex Fridman (2:25:02.720)

If you want to be a company that's extremely successful,

Andrew Bustamante (2:25:05.800)

is win with competence, not with cheating,

Lex Fridman (2:25:09.800)

because cheating won't, I believe, win in the long term.

Lex Fridman (2:25:15.160)

But in terms of being publicly responsible

Lex Fridman (2:25:21.120)

to your decisions, I mean, I've already been supposed

Andrew Bustamante (2:25:24.840)

to talk to Peter Thiel twice on this podcast,

Lex Fridman (2:25:27.160)

and it's just been complicated.

Andrew Bustamante (2:25:28.660)

If I were to put myself into his shoes,

Lex Fridman (2:25:33.280)

why do podcasts?

Andrew Bustamante (2:25:35.400)

The risk is too high to be a public person at all.

Lex Fridman (2:25:40.000)

And so I totally understand that.

Andrew Bustamante (2:25:42.240)

At the same time, I think if you're doing things

Lex Fridman (2:25:47.120)

by the book and you're the best in the world at your job,

Andrew Bustamante (2:25:55.120)

then you have nothing to worry about.

Lex Fridman (2:25:56.680)

And you can advertise that and you recruit,

Andrew Bustamante (2:25:59.120)

you help recruit, I mean, that's the work of capitalism

Lex Fridman (2:26:02.800)

is you want to advertise that this is the place

Andrew Bustamante (2:26:07.160)

where the best people in the world at this thing work.

Lex Fridman (2:26:10.440)

True, I think that your point of view is accurate.

Andrew Bustamante (2:26:14.160)

I would also say that the complexities

Lex Fridman (2:26:19.160)

of what makes somebody make a decision

Andrew Bustamante (2:26:22.200)

can only really be properly calculated with a baseline.

Lex Fridman (2:26:26.160)

So because there is no baseline

Andrew Bustamante (2:26:27.600)

that you or I have on Peter Thiel,

Lex Fridman (2:26:29.400)

it's difficult to really ascertain why he does

Andrew Bustamante (2:26:33.040)

or doesn't accept invites or why he does or doesn't appear.

Lex Fridman (2:26:35.400)

Well, let me ask your opinion on the NSA,

Lex Fridman (2:26:41.400)

and then maybe you could mention

Lex Fridman (2:26:42.600)

about bulk collection in general in the CIA,

Lex Fridman (2:26:46.440)

but let's look at some history with the NSA and Snowden.

Lex Fridman (2:26:51.160)

What's your opinion on the mass surveillance

Lex Fridman (2:26:55.880)

that is reported to have been conducted by the NSA?

Lex Fridman (2:27:02.320)

We've talked about ethics.

Andrew Bustamante (2:27:04.720)

Are you troubled by the, from a public perception,

Lex Fridman (2:27:09.720)

the unethical nature of mass surveillance

Lex Fridman (2:27:15.000)

of especially American citizens?

Lex Fridman (2:27:18.880)

This is a topic that I never get tired of talking about,

Lex Fridman (2:27:21.920)

but it's very rare that anyone ever really agrees with me,

Lex Fridman (2:27:25.320)

just so you know.

Andrew Bustamante (2:27:26.160)

I see where you're, well, I think there's a nuance thing

Lex Fridman (2:27:30.680)

here and maybe we'll find some agreement.

Andrew Bustamante (2:27:32.440)

The truth is that the American experience after 9 11

Lex Fridman (2:27:37.440)

is nothing like the American experience now.

Lex Fridman (2:27:40.600)

So all the terminology, all the talk about privacy

Lex Fridman (2:27:45.040)

and privacy laws and mass surveillance

Lex Fridman (2:27:47.080)

and all this other stuff,

Lex Fridman (2:27:48.200)

it was a completely different time then.

Lex Fridman (2:27:50.480)

And that's not to say it was an excuse,

Lex Fridman (2:27:52.000)

because to this day, I will still say mass collection,

Andrew Bustamante (2:27:57.080)

bulk collection of data that allows

Lex Fridman (2:28:00.160)

for an expedient identification of a threat

Andrew Bustamante (2:28:02.800)

to national security benefits all of us,

Lex Fridman (2:28:06.560)

but people don't understand what they want.

Andrew Bustamante (2:28:09.520)

Like people don't understand what the value

Lex Fridman (2:28:11.080)

of their own privacy is.

Andrew Bustamante (2:28:13.200)

First of all, the fact that people think

Lex Fridman (2:28:14.280)

they have personal privacy is laughable.

Andrew Bustamante (2:28:17.520)

You have no privacy.

Lex Fridman (2:28:19.080)

The cell phone that you carry in your pocket,

Andrew Bustamante (2:28:20.560)

you're giving permission to those apps constantly.

Lex Fridman (2:28:22.520)

You're giving commercial organizations,

Lex Fridman (2:28:24.240)

what you and I have already said,

Lex Fridman (2:28:25.560)

are less tied to ethical responsibility.

Andrew Bustamante (2:28:28.680)

You're giving them permission to collect enormous amounts

Lex Fridman (2:28:31.760)

of private data from you all the time.

Lex Fridman (2:28:34.160)

And do you know what happens if AT&T or Verizon

Lex Fridman (2:28:37.480)

sees some nefarious activity on your account?

Andrew Bustamante (2:28:40.800)

They do nothing.

Lex Fridman (2:28:42.080)

They might send a note to FBI because they have to,

Andrew Bustamante (2:28:45.520)

according to some checklist.

Lex Fridman (2:28:47.160)

But when NSA was collecting intelligence

Andrew Bustamante (2:28:49.600)

on metadata from around the United States,

Lex Fridman (2:28:51.800)

they were very specifically looking for terrorist threats

Andrew Bustamante (2:28:54.960)

that would harm American lives.

Lex Fridman (2:28:58.200)

Man, NSA can clone my phone.

Andrew Bustamante (2:29:00.440)

I will give them my children's phone.

Lex Fridman (2:29:01.960)

I will give them the passwords to every one of my accounts

Andrew Bustamante (2:29:04.800)

if it means that there's a likelihood

Lex Fridman (2:29:07.080)

that my family will be safer from a nefarious actor

Andrew Bustamante (2:29:09.920)

who's intent on hurting us.

Lex Fridman (2:29:13.240)

NSA doesn't care about your affair.

Andrew Bustamante (2:29:15.000)

NSA doesn't care if you're cheating on your taxes.

Lex Fridman (2:29:17.120)

NSA doesn't care if you talk shit about your boss

Andrew Bustamante (2:29:20.800)

or if you hate the US president.

Lex Fridman (2:29:22.720)

Nobody cares about that.

Andrew Bustamante (2:29:24.560)

Your intelligence community is there

Lex Fridman (2:29:26.000)

to find threats to national security.

Andrew Bustamante (2:29:29.440)

That's what they're there to do.

Lex Fridman (2:29:31.800)

What Snowden did when he outed that whole program,

Andrew Bustamante (2:29:36.680)

the fact that the court, the justice system,

Lex Fridman (2:29:38.920)

the civilian justice system went back

Lex Fridman (2:29:41.360)

and essentially overruled the ruling

Lex Fridman (2:29:44.280)

of the intelligence courts before them

Andrew Bustamante (2:29:47.000)

just goes to show how the general mass community

Lex Fridman (2:29:51.680)

really shouldn't have a say

Andrew Bustamante (2:29:53.520)

in what happens in the intelligence community.

Lex Fridman (2:29:55.680)

They really shouldn't.

Andrew Bustamante (2:29:56.840)

You have politicians and you have the opportunity

Lex Fridman (2:30:00.760)

to elect people to a position and then you trust them.

Andrew Bustamante (2:30:03.760)

That's what a representative republic is.

Lex Fridman (2:30:05.840)

You vote the people in,

Andrew Bustamante (2:30:07.280)

you trust them to work on your behalf.

Lex Fridman (2:30:09.040)

They make decisions without running them by you.

Andrew Bustamante (2:30:11.680)

They make decisions that they believe

Lex Fridman (2:30:14.520)

are in the best interest of their constituency

Lex Fridman (2:30:16.240)

and that's how our form of democracy works.

Lex Fridman (2:30:21.240)

It worked, we were safer.

Andrew Bustamante (2:30:23.520)

Now that we don't have that information

Lex Fridman (2:30:25.360)

and now that there's this giant looming question

Andrew Bustamante (2:30:27.240)

of whether or not NSA is there to serve people

Lex Fridman (2:30:28.880)

or is collecting mass surveillance

Andrew Bustamante (2:30:31.200)

against all American people,

Lex Fridman (2:30:33.400)

that's not really a true accurate representation

Andrew Bustamante (2:30:35.600)

of what they were ever doing.

Lex Fridman (2:30:36.880)

They were looking for the needle in a haystack

Andrew Bustamante (2:30:39.280)

of the series of transactions in metadata

Lex Fridman (2:30:42.680)

that was going to lead to American deaths.

Andrew Bustamante (2:30:45.560)

We are now less secure because they can't do that

Lex Fridman (2:30:48.880)

and that bothers me.

Lex Fridman (2:30:50.760)

So you said a few really interesting things there.

Lex Fridman (2:30:53.800)

So because you are kind of an insider,

Andrew Bustamante (2:30:56.600)

or were for a time an insider, meaning you were able

Lex Fridman (2:30:59.480)

to build up an intuition about the good, the bad,

Lex Fridman (2:31:03.040)

and the ugly of these institutions, specifically the good.

Lex Fridman (2:31:07.240)

A lot of people don't have a good sense of the good.

Andrew Bustamante (2:31:09.560)

They know the bad and the ugly

Lex Fridman (2:31:11.400)

or can infer the bad and the ugly.

Andrew Bustamante (2:31:14.000)

You mentioned that the one little key little thing there

Lex Fridman (2:31:18.240)

at the end saying the NSA doesn't care

Andrew Bustamante (2:31:22.560)

about whether you hate the president or not.

Lex Fridman (2:31:24.880)

Now that's what people really worry about

Andrew Bustamante (2:31:28.640)

is they're not sure they can trust the government

Lex Fridman (2:31:32.400)

to not go into full dictatorial mode

Lex Fridman (2:31:36.280)

and basing your political preference, your oppositions,

Lex Fridman (2:31:40.020)

your, basically one of the essential powers,

Andrew Bustamante (2:31:46.120)

the freedom of speech in the United States

Lex Fridman (2:31:48.040)

is the ability to criticize your government.

Andrew Bustamante (2:31:49.680)

Exactly.

Lex Fridman (2:31:50.520)

And that, they worry, well, can't the government

Andrew Bustamante (2:31:56.200)

get a hold of the NSA and start to ask the basic question,

Lex Fridman (2:31:59.720)

well, can you give me a list of people

Lex Fridman (2:32:02.320)

that are criticizing the government?

Lex Fridman (2:32:03.840)

Think about, so let's just walk through that exact example,

Andrew Bustamante (2:32:06.080)

right, because this is, it's a preponderance,

Lex Fridman (2:32:08.760)

it's a preponderance fear, it's a ridiculous fear

Andrew Bustamante (2:32:12.400)

because you would have to tap on multiple elements

Lex Fridman (2:32:15.560)

of government for anything to happen.

Lex Fridman (2:32:16.880)

So for example, let's just say that somebody goes

Lex Fridman (2:32:20.440)

to the NSA and says, hey, can you give us a readout

Andrew Bustamante (2:32:22.560)

on all the people who are tweeting terrible things

Lex Fridman (2:32:25.380)

about the president?

Andrew Bustamante (2:32:26.400)

Okay, cool, here's your hundred million people,

Lex Fridman (2:32:28.940)

whatever it is, right?

Andrew Bustamante (2:32:30.200)

Here's all the people saying negative things

Lex Fridman (2:32:31.400)

about the government.

Lex Fridman (2:32:32.680)

So now they have a list, what do they do next?

Lex Fridman (2:32:35.480)

Well, let's just make it simple.

Andrew Bustamante (2:32:37.100)

They stay with NSA and they say, surveil them even more,

Lex Fridman (2:32:40.240)

tap their phones, tap their computers,

Andrew Bustamante (2:32:42.580)

I wanna know even more.

Lex Fridman (2:32:43.480)

So then they get this preponderance of evidence.

Lex Fridman (2:32:46.280)

What do you do with evidence?

Lex Fridman (2:32:47.920)

You take it to a court.

Lex Fridman (2:32:49.920)

Well, guess what no court is going to support?

Lex Fridman (2:32:52.760)

Anything that goes against the freedom of speech.

Lex Fridman (2:32:56.920)

So the court is not going to support

Lex Fridman (2:32:58.900)

what the executive is asking them to do.

Andrew Bustamante (2:33:01.120)

Even before you take somebody to court,

Lex Fridman (2:33:03.080)

you have to involve law enforcement.

Andrew Bustamante (2:33:05.240)

Essentially, you have to send some sort of police force

Lex Fridman (2:33:08.100)

to go apprehend the individual who's in question.

Andrew Bustamante (2:33:11.520)

Well, guess what doesn't meet criteria

Lex Fridman (2:33:13.600)

for any police force anywhere in the United States?

Andrew Bustamante (2:33:16.440)

Arresting people who say negative things

Lex Fridman (2:33:20.780)

about the president.

Andrew Bustamante (2:33:21.620)

Now, if somebody poses a threat to the life

Lex Fridman (2:33:25.120)

of a public figure or the threat to life of a politician,

Andrew Bustamante (2:33:27.800)

that's a completely different case,

Lex Fridman (2:33:29.320)

which means the standards of evidence are much higher

Andrew Bustamante (2:33:31.280)

for them to arrest that person.

Lex Fridman (2:33:32.720)

So unless you create a secret police force,

Andrew Bustamante (2:33:36.160)

then your actual public police force

Lex Fridman (2:33:37.920)

is never gonna take action.

Lex Fridman (2:33:39.240)

So all these people who are afraid of this exact situation

Lex Fridman (2:33:42.680)

that you're outlying,

Andrew Bustamante (2:33:43.680)

they need the creation of a secret police force,

Lex Fridman (2:33:46.660)

the creation of a secret court

Andrew Bustamante (2:33:48.080)

that operates outside the judicial system,

Lex Fridman (2:33:50.120)

the creation of a secret intelligence service

Andrew Bustamante (2:33:52.080)

that operates outside of foreign intelligence collection,

Lex Fridman (2:33:54.880)

all so that a handful of people

Lex Fridman (2:33:57.080)

who don't like the president get what?

Lex Fridman (2:34:00.220)

Whisked away, assassinated, put in prison, who knows what?

Andrew Bustamante (2:34:04.440)

Think about the resources that would be,

Lex Fridman (2:34:06.160)

the amount of money and time

Lex Fridman (2:34:08.320)

and how hard would it be to keep that secret,

Lex Fridman (2:34:10.840)

to have all of those things in motion.

Andrew Bustamante (2:34:13.000)

The reason it worked in Russia and Soviet Germany

Lex Fridman (2:34:15.840)

or Russia and communist Germany

Andrew Bustamante (2:34:17.480)

was because everybody knew there was a secret police.

Lex Fridman (2:34:21.080)

Everybody knew that there was a threat

Andrew Bustamante (2:34:23.740)

to work to speaking out against the government.

Lex Fridman (2:34:25.480)

It's completely different here.

Andrew Bustamante (2:34:26.800)

Well, so there's a lot to say.

Lex Fridman (2:34:28.680)

So one is yes, if I was a dictator

Lex Fridman (2:34:32.120)

and I wanted to, and just looking at history,

Lex Fridman (2:34:36.320)

let me take myself out of it,

Lex Fridman (2:34:38.380)

but I think one of the more effective ways

Lex Fridman (2:34:41.000)

is you don't need the surveillance.

Andrew Bustamante (2:34:43.000)

You can pick out a random person

Lex Fridman (2:34:45.440)

and in a public display, semi public display,

Andrew Bustamante (2:34:50.800)

basically put them in jail for opposing the government,

Lex Fridman (2:34:54.400)

whether they oppose it or not,

Lex Fridman (2:34:56.040)

and the fear, that sends a message to a lot of people.

Lex Fridman (2:34:59.440)

That's exactly what you see happening in China.

Andrew Bustamante (2:35:02.080)

That's what you just light out.

Lex Fridman (2:35:03.480)

It's genius, and that is the standard.

Andrew Bustamante (2:35:06.160)

You don't need the surveillance for that.

Lex Fridman (2:35:07.720)

Yep.

Lex Fridman (2:35:09.040)

But that said, if you did do the surveillance,

Lex Fridman (2:35:13.460)

so that's the support, the sort of,

Andrew Bustamante (2:35:15.400)

the incentives aren't aligned.

Lex Fridman (2:35:17.220)

It seems like a lot of work to do

Andrew Bustamante (2:35:18.600)

for the thing you could do without the surveillance.

Lex Fridman (2:35:20.600)

Right.

Lex Fridman (2:35:21.440)

But yes, the courts wouldn't,

Lex Fridman (2:35:25.680)

if you were to be able to get a list of people,

Andrew Bustamante (2:35:29.400)

which I think that part you could do.

Lex Fridman (2:35:31.400)

Correct.

Andrew Bustamante (2:35:32.980)

That oppose the government.

Lex Fridman (2:35:34.160)

You could do that just like you said on Twitter publicly.

Andrew Bustamante (2:35:36.920)

You could make a list.

Lex Fridman (2:35:38.540)

And with that, you can start to,

Andrew Bustamante (2:35:41.240)

especially if you have a lot of data on those people,

Lex Fridman (2:35:43.100)

find ways in which they did violate the law.

Andrew Bustamante (2:35:46.400)

Not because they oppose the government,

Lex Fridman (2:35:48.840)

but because in some other way.

Andrew Bustamante (2:35:50.240)

They'll park your tickets or didn't pay the taxes.

Lex Fridman (2:35:53.880)

That's probably a common one,

Andrew Bustamante (2:35:55.160)

or like screwed up something about the taxes.

Lex Fridman (2:35:57.900)

I just happen to know Russia and Ukraine,

Andrew Bustamante (2:36:00.600)

they're very good at this kind of stuff.

Lex Fridman (2:36:03.020)

Knowing how the citizens screwed everything up,

Andrew Bustamante (2:36:06.400)

because especially in those countries,

Lex Fridman (2:36:08.720)

everybody's breaking the law.

Andrew Bustamante (2:36:10.960)

Because in a corrupt nation,

Lex Fridman (2:36:13.100)

you have to bend the law to operate the war.

Andrew Bustamante (2:36:16.160)

The number of people that pay taxes fully

Lex Fridman (2:36:18.840)

in those nations is just very low, not zero.

Lex Fridman (2:36:22.560)

And so they then use that breaking of the law

Lex Fridman (2:36:26.440)

to come up with an excuse to actually put you in jail

Andrew Bustamante (2:36:29.400)

based on that.

Lex Fridman (2:36:31.040)

So it's possible to imagine.

Lex Fridman (2:36:33.080)

But yes, I think,

Lex Fridman (2:36:34.360)

I think that's the ugly part of surveillance.

Lex Fridman (2:36:39.880)

But I do think, just like you said,

Lex Fridman (2:36:41.960)

the incentives aren't correct.

Andrew Bustamante (2:36:43.560)

Like you really don't need to get all of the secret police

Lex Fridman (2:36:47.480)

and all of these kinds of organizations working.

Andrew Bustamante (2:36:49.920)

If you do have a charismatic, powerful leader

Lex Fridman (2:36:53.640)

that built up a network that's able to control

Andrew Bustamante (2:36:55.840)

a lot of organizations to a level of authoritarianism

Lex Fridman (2:37:00.360)

in a government, they're just able to do the usual thing.

Andrew Bustamante (2:37:03.820)

One, have propaganda machine to tell narratives.

Lex Fridman (2:37:06.800)

Two, pick out people that they can put in jail

Andrew Bustamante (2:37:10.860)

for opposing the state.

Lex Fridman (2:37:12.340)

And maybe loud members of the press

Andrew Bustamante (2:37:15.040)

start silencing the press.

Lex Fridman (2:37:16.200)

There's a playbook to this thing.

Andrew Bustamante (2:37:19.040)

It doesn't require the surveillance.

Lex Fridman (2:37:21.160)

The surveillance, you know what is useful

Andrew Bustamante (2:37:24.680)

for the surveillance is the thing you mentioned in China,

Lex Fridman (2:37:27.920)

which is encourage everybody in the citizenry

Andrew Bustamante (2:37:34.240)

to watch each other,

Lex Fridman (2:37:35.440)

to say there's enemies of the state everywhere.

Lex Fridman (2:37:38.080)

And then you start having children reporting

Lex Fridman (2:37:40.880)

on their appearance and that kind of stuff.

Andrew Bustamante (2:37:42.880)

Again, don't need a surveillance state for that.

Lex Fridman (2:37:46.040)

Now the good of a surveillance system,

Andrew Bustamante (2:37:49.420)

if it's operating within ethical bounds,

Lex Fridman (2:37:53.040)

is that yes, it could protect the populace.

Lex Fridman (2:37:55.600)

So you're saying like the good given on your understanding

Lex Fridman (2:37:59.720)

of these institutions, the good outweighs the bad.

Andrew Bustamante (2:38:03.620)

Absolutely, so let me give you just a practical example.

Lex Fridman (2:38:06.080)

So people don't realize this,

Lex Fridman (2:38:07.800)

but there's multiple surveillance states that are out there.

Lex Fridman (2:38:10.440)

There are surveillance states that are close allies

Andrew Bustamante (2:38:12.080)

with the United States.

Lex Fridman (2:38:13.560)

One of those surveillance states

Andrew Bustamante (2:38:14.720)

is the United Arab Emirates, the UAE.

Lex Fridman (2:38:18.680)

Now I lived in the UAE from 2019 to 2020,

Andrew Bustamante (2:38:23.320)

came back on a repatriation flight after COVID broke out.

Lex Fridman (2:38:26.720)

And, but we were there for a full year.

Andrew Bustamante (2:38:28.160)

We were residents, we had IDs, we had everything.

Lex Fridman (2:38:31.880)

Now, when you get your national ID in the Emirates,

Andrew Bustamante (2:38:35.200)

you get a chip and that chip connects you to everything.

Lex Fridman (2:38:39.180)

It connects you to cameras,

Andrew Bustamante (2:38:41.100)

it connects you to your license plate on your car,

Lex Fridman (2:38:44.080)

to your passport, to your credit card, everything.

Andrew Bustamante (2:38:46.800)

Everything is intertwined, everything is interlinked.

Lex Fridman (2:38:49.520)

When you drive, there are no police.

Andrew Bustamante (2:38:51.060)

There are no police on the roads.

Lex Fridman (2:38:52.520)

Every 50 to 100 meters, you cross a camera

Andrew Bustamante (2:38:56.440)

that reads your license plate, measures your speed.

Lex Fridman (2:38:59.240)

And if you're breaking the speed limit,

Andrew Bustamante (2:39:00.780)

it just immediately charges your credit card

Lex Fridman (2:39:02.800)

because it's tied, it's all tied together.

Andrew Bustamante (2:39:04.520)

Totally surveillance.

Lex Fridman (2:39:05.760)

That technology was invented by the Israelis

Andrew Bustamante (2:39:08.760)

who use it in Israel.

Lex Fridman (2:39:13.080)

When I was in Abu Dhabi and I was rear ended at high speed

Andrew Bustamante (2:39:17.100)

by what turned out to be an Emirati official,

Lex Fridman (2:39:19.760)

a senior ranking official of one of the Emirates.

Andrew Bustamante (2:39:23.260)

It was caught on camera.

Lex Fridman (2:39:25.080)

His ID was registered, my ID was registered.

Andrew Bustamante (2:39:27.380)

Everything was tied back to our IDs.

Lex Fridman (2:39:28.960)

The proof and the evidence was crystal clear.

Andrew Bustamante (2:39:31.760)

Even still, he was Emirati, I was not.

Lex Fridman (2:39:34.620)

So when I went to the police station to file the complaints,

Andrew Bustamante (2:39:37.580)

it was something that nobody was comfortable with

Lex Fridman (2:39:39.920)

because generally speaking,

Andrew Bustamante (2:39:41.160)

Emiratis don't accept legal claims

Lex Fridman (2:39:45.080)

against their own from foreigners.

Lex Fridman (2:39:46.800)

But the difference was that I was an American

Lex Fridman (2:39:48.800)

and I was there on a contract

Andrew Bustamante (2:39:50.120)

supporting the Emirati government.

Lex Fridman (2:39:51.720)

So I had these different variances, right?

Andrew Bustamante (2:39:54.640)

Long story short, in the end,

Lex Fridman (2:39:57.160)

the surveillance state is what made sure

Andrew Bustamante (2:39:59.800)

that justice was played

Lex Fridman (2:40:01.840)

because the proof was incontrovertible.

Andrew Bustamante (2:40:07.120)

There was so much evidence collected

Lex Fridman (2:40:09.320)

because of the surveillance nature of their state.

Lex Fridman (2:40:11.340)

Now, why do they have a surveillance state?

Lex Fridman (2:40:12.920)

It's not for people like me.

Andrew Bustamante (2:40:14.400)

It's because they're constantly afraid

Lex Fridman (2:40:16.660)

of extremist terrorist activity happening inside Abu Dhabi

Andrew Bustamante (2:40:21.360)

or inside the UAE

Lex Fridman (2:40:22.860)

because they're under constant threat from Islam

Lex Fridman (2:40:25.200)

and they're from extremists

Lex Fridman (2:40:26.980)

and they're under constant threat from Iran.

Lex Fridman (2:40:28.640)

So that's what drives the people to want a police state,

Lex Fridman (2:40:32.080)

to want a surveillance state.

Andrew Bustamante (2:40:33.680)

For them, their survival is paramount

Lex Fridman (2:40:36.480)

and they need the surveillance to have that survival.

Andrew Bustamante (2:40:38.760)

For us, we haven't tasted that level of desperation and fear

Lex Fridman (2:40:43.400)

yet or hopefully never,

Lex Fridman (2:40:45.160)

but that's what makes us feel

Lex Fridman (2:40:46.260)

like there's something wrong with surveillance.

Andrew Bustamante (2:40:48.920)

Surveillance is all about the purpose.

Lex Fridman (2:40:50.560)

It's all about the intent.

Andrew Bustamante (2:40:52.140)

Well, and like you said,

Lex Fridman (2:40:53.980)

companies do a significant amount of surveillance

Andrew Bustamante (2:40:56.680)

to provide us with services that we take for granted.

Lex Fridman (2:41:00.440)

For example, just one of the things to give props

Andrew Bustamante (2:41:04.200)

to the digital efforts

Lex Fridman (2:41:06.160)

of the Zelensky administration in Ukraine.

Andrew Bustamante (2:41:08.480)

I don't know if you're aware,

Lex Fridman (2:41:09.740)

but they have this digital transformation efforts

Andrew Bustamante (2:41:12.880)

where you could put, there's an, it's laughable to say

Lex Fridman (2:41:19.620)

in the United States,

Lex Fridman (2:41:20.460)

but they actually did a really good job

Lex Fridman (2:41:22.020)

by having a government app that has your passport on it.

Andrew Bustamante (2:41:25.760)

It's all the digital information.

Lex Fridman (2:41:27.120)

You can get a doctor.

Andrew Bustamante (2:41:28.960)

It's like everything that you would think America

Lex Fridman (2:41:31.720)

would be doing, like license, like all that kind of stuff,

Andrew Bustamante (2:41:35.740)

it's in an app.

Lex Fridman (2:41:36.800)

You could pay, there's payment to each other.

Lex Fridman (2:41:39.600)

And that's all coming, I mean,

Lex Fridman (2:41:41.440)

there's probably contractors somehow connected

Andrew Bustamante (2:41:43.280)

to the whole thing,

Lex Fridman (2:41:44.160)

but that's like under the flag of government.

Lex Fridman (2:41:46.800)

And so that's an incredible technology.

Lex Fridman (2:41:49.320)

And I didn't, I guess, hear anybody talk about surveillance

Andrew Bustamante (2:41:53.040)

in that context, even though it is, but they all love it.

Lex Fridman (2:41:56.240)

And it's super easy.

Lex Fridman (2:41:57.200)

And they, frankly already, it's so easy and convenient.

Lex Fridman (2:42:00.760)

They've already taken for granted that,

Andrew Bustamante (2:42:02.720)

of course, this is what you do.

Lex Fridman (2:42:04.440)

Of course, your passport is on your phone.

Andrew Bustamante (2:42:06.680)

For everybody to have housed in a server

Lex Fridman (2:42:09.180)

that you have no idea where it's at,

Andrew Bustamante (2:42:10.640)

that could be hacked at any time by a third party.

Lex Fridman (2:42:13.240)

They don't ask these kinds of questions

Andrew Bustamante (2:42:14.720)

because it's so convenient,

Lex Fridman (2:42:16.040)

as we do for Google, Facebook, Twitter, Apple,

Andrew Bustamante (2:42:23.800)

Microsoft products we use.

Lex Fridman (2:42:27.080)

Security and convenience are on two opposite sides

Andrew Bustamante (2:42:29.280)

of another spectrum.

Lex Fridman (2:42:30.840)

The more convenient something is, the less secure.

Lex Fridman (2:42:33.240)

And the more secure something is, the less convenient.

Lex Fridman (2:42:36.240)

And that's a battle that we're always working

Andrew Bustamante (2:42:39.580)

with as individuals, and then we're trying

Lex Fridman (2:42:41.280)

to outsource that battle to our politicians.

Lex Fridman (2:42:43.440)

And our politicians are, frankly,

Lex Fridman (2:42:44.560)

just more interested in being politicians.

Andrew Bustamante (2:42:46.820)

Yeah, that said, I mean, people are really worried

Lex Fridman (2:42:49.120)

about giving any one institution a large amount of power,

Andrew Bustamante (2:42:54.800)

especially when it's a federal government institution,

Lex Fridman (2:43:00.120)

given some history.

Andrew Bustamante (2:43:02.000)

First of all, just history of the corruption,

Lex Fridman (2:43:04.980)

of power corrupting individuals and institutions.

Lex Fridman (2:43:08.640)

And second of all, myth or reality of certain institutions

Lex Fridman (2:43:15.300)

like the CIA misbehaving.

Andrew Bustamante (2:43:17.760)

Well, let me actually ask you about the Edward Snowden.

Lex Fridman (2:43:20.720)

So you, outside of the utility that you're arguing for

Andrew Bustamante (2:43:26.340)

of the NSA surveillance program,

Lex Fridman (2:43:29.160)

do you think Edward Snowden is a criminal or a hero?

Andrew Bustamante (2:43:34.560)

In terms, in the eyes of the law, he's a criminal.

Lex Fridman (2:43:38.180)

He broke the law, he broke the confidence,

Andrew Bustamante (2:43:41.120)

he made us, he was under security obligation.

Lex Fridman (2:43:43.760)

And then when he ran away, he ran away

Andrew Bustamante (2:43:45.500)

to all of the worst villains in the world

Lex Fridman (2:43:47.760)

from the US perspective to basically seek protection.

Andrew Bustamante (2:43:53.580)

That's how you act in the face of accusation

Lex Fridman (2:43:59.560)

is in essence part of the case that you build for yourself.

Lex Fridman (2:44:03.400)

So running away to China, Russia, Cuba,

Lex Fridman (2:44:07.120)

there was a Latin Ecuador, I think,

Andrew Bustamante (2:44:09.920)

that just paints a very negative picture

Lex Fridman (2:44:11.880)

that does not suggest that you were doing anything

Andrew Bustamante (2:44:13.600)

that was ethical and upright

Lex Fridman (2:44:14.720)

and in favor of the American people

Andrew Bustamante (2:44:16.200)

if you're gonna run to American enemies to support yourself.

Lex Fridman (2:44:19.480)

So for sure, in the eyes of law, he's a criminal.

Andrew Bustamante (2:44:22.580)

In the eyes of a group of people

Lex Fridman (2:44:26.240)

who are largely ignorant to what they lost,

Andrew Bustamante (2:44:30.920)

to them, he's a hero.

Lex Fridman (2:44:32.720)

To me, he's just kind of a sad case.

Andrew Bustamante (2:44:35.320)

I personally look at Snowden as a sad, unfortunate case.

Lex Fridman (2:44:41.240)

His life is ruined, his family name is tarnished.

Andrew Bustamante (2:44:46.220)

He's forever going to be a desperate pawn.

Lex Fridman (2:44:51.920)

And that's all because of the decisions that he made

Lex Fridman (2:44:54.400)

and the order that he made them.

Lex Fridman (2:44:55.600)

I'm not sure his name is tarnished.

Andrew Bustamante (2:44:57.220)

I think the case you're making is a difficult case to make.

Lex Fridman (2:45:01.480)

And so I think his name represents fighting one man,

Andrew Bustamante (2:45:08.360)

it's like Tiananmen Square standing before the tank,

Lex Fridman (2:45:11.400)

is like one man fighting the government.

Lex Fridman (2:45:15.760)

And I think that there is some aspect

Lex Fridman (2:45:18.120)

which, taking that case aside,

Andrew Bustamante (2:45:21.680)

that is the American spirit,

Lex Fridman (2:45:24.760)

which is hold the powerful accountable.

Lex Fridman (2:45:28.960)

So whenever there's somebody in power,

Lex Fridman (2:45:31.400)

one individual can change.

Andrew Bustamante (2:45:38.200)

One man can make a difference.

Lex Fridman (2:45:39.440)

Can make a difference, yeah.

Andrew Bustamante (2:45:40.720)

Very Knight Rider of you.

Lex Fridman (2:45:42.320)

I mean, that's the American individualism.

Lex Fridman (2:45:45.240)

And so he represents that.

Lex Fridman (2:45:46.720)

And I think there's a huge skepticism

Andrew Bustamante (2:45:49.640)

against large federal institutions.

Lex Fridman (2:45:52.960)

And I think if you look at the long arc of history,

Andrew Bustamante (2:45:56.560)

that actually is a forcing function

Lex Fridman (2:45:58.960)

for the institutions to behave their best.

Lex Fridman (2:46:01.920)

So basically hold them accountable.

Lex Fridman (2:46:08.160)

What's nice about this is that we can agree to disagree

Lex Fridman (2:46:11.280)

and history will be the one that decides.

Lex Fridman (2:46:13.680)

But there's a reason that Edward Snowden

Andrew Bustamante (2:46:18.680)

needs to do something new every 16 or 18 months

Lex Fridman (2:46:23.120)

to remain relevant, right?

Andrew Bustamante (2:46:25.800)

Because if he didn't, he would just be forgotten.

Lex Fridman (2:46:28.560)

Because he was not a maverick

Andrew Bustamante (2:46:30.640)

who changed history for the better.

Lex Fridman (2:46:32.760)

He was a man who broke a law and now he's on the run.

Lex Fridman (2:46:37.480)

And to some people, he is a hero.

Lex Fridman (2:46:41.060)

To other people, he is a criminal.

Lex Fridman (2:46:42.880)

But to the vast majority, he's just a blip

Lex Fridman (2:46:46.560)

on a radar of their everyday life

Andrew Bustamante (2:46:48.320)

that really makes no difference to them at all.

Lex Fridman (2:46:50.680)

So actually let's linger on that.

Lex Fridman (2:46:51.980)

So just to clarify, do you think,

Lex Fridman (2:46:54.420)

are you making the difficult case

Andrew Bustamante (2:46:57.620)

that the NSA mass surveillance program

Lex Fridman (2:47:00.780)

was one, ethical and two, made a better world for Americans?

Andrew Bustamante (2:47:04.980)

I am making the case that at the time,

Lex Fridman (2:47:08.260)

it was exactly what we needed to feel safe in our own homes.

Lex Fridman (2:47:13.100)

But what about to be safe, actually be safe?

Lex Fridman (2:47:16.500)

So this is what's difficult because any proof

Andrew Bustamante (2:47:19.080)

that was that they collected

Lex Fridman (2:47:20.920)

that actually prevented an attack from happening

Andrew Bustamante (2:47:23.500)

is proof we'll never know about.

Lex Fridman (2:47:24.900)

This is the really unfortunate side

Andrew Bustamante (2:47:27.480)

of intelligence operations.

Lex Fridman (2:47:28.500)

And I've been at the front end of this.

Andrew Bustamante (2:47:30.500)

You work your ass off.

Lex Fridman (2:47:32.220)

You take personal risk.

Andrew Bustamante (2:47:33.700)

You make personal sacrifice to make sure

Lex Fridman (2:47:35.740)

that something terrible doesn't happen.

Andrew Bustamante (2:47:38.260)

Nobody knows that that ever happens.

Lex Fridman (2:47:39.980)

Does that have to be that way?

Andrew Bustamante (2:47:41.620)

Does it have to remain secret

Lex Fridman (2:47:44.800)

every time the NSA or the CIA saves the lives of Americans?

Andrew Bustamante (2:47:50.980)

It does for two reasons.

Lex Fridman (2:47:52.140)

It has to be secret.

Andrew Bustamante (2:47:52.980)

First, the mythos.

Lex Fridman (2:47:55.540)

The same thing we were talking about with General Petraeus.

Andrew Bustamante (2:47:58.940)

You can't brag about your victories

Lex Fridman (2:48:01.560)

if you want to let the myth shape itself.

Andrew Bustamante (2:48:05.300)

You can't do that.

Lex Fridman (2:48:06.240)

The second thing is once a victory is claimed,

Andrew Bustamante (2:48:14.300)

the danger comes from letting your enemy know

Lex Fridman (2:48:17.460)

that you claimed the victory

Andrew Bustamante (2:48:19.060)

because they can reverse engineer

Lex Fridman (2:48:20.260)

and they can start to change how they did things.

Andrew Bustamante (2:48:22.540)

If a terrorist act, if a terrorist cell tries

Lex Fridman (2:48:25.020)

to execute an operation and the operation fails,

Andrew Bustamante (2:48:27.620)

from their point of view, they don't know why it failed.

Lex Fridman (2:48:29.600)

They just know that it failed.

Lex Fridman (2:48:30.780)

But then if the US or if the American government comes in

Lex Fridman (2:48:33.580)

and says, we took apart this amazing attack,

Lex Fridman (2:48:37.760)

now they have more information, right?

Lex Fridman (2:48:39.940)

The whole power of secrets, like we talked about before,

Andrew Bustamante (2:48:41.860)

the power of secrets is in knowing

Lex Fridman (2:48:43.500)

that not everybody has them.

Andrew Bustamante (2:48:44.660)

There's only a shelf life.

Lex Fridman (2:48:46.700)

So take advantage of the shelf life.

Andrew Bustamante (2:48:48.340)

You get space.

Lex Fridman (2:48:49.820)

So you gotta keep it a secret.

Andrew Bustamante (2:48:51.340)

There is no tactical advantage from sharing a secret

Lex Fridman (2:48:56.140)

unless you are specifically trying to achieve

Andrew Bustamante (2:48:59.980)

a certain tactical advantage from sharing that secret,

Lex Fridman (2:49:01.940)

which is what we've seen so much of

Andrew Bustamante (2:49:03.100)

with US intel sharing with Ukraine.

Lex Fridman (2:49:05.180)

There's a tactical advantage from sharing a secret

Andrew Bustamante (2:49:07.340)

about Russian military movements or weaknesses in tanks

Lex Fridman (2:49:10.740)

or supply chain challenges, whatever it might be.

Andrew Bustamante (2:49:14.100)

Well, let me argue that there might be an advantage

Lex Fridman (2:49:16.340)

to share information with the American public

Andrew Bustamante (2:49:19.820)

when a terrorist attack or is averted

Lex Fridman (2:49:25.700)

or the lives of Americans are saved,

Andrew Bustamante (2:49:28.460)

because what that does.

Lex Fridman (2:49:30.060)

Is make every American think that they're not that safe.

Andrew Bustamante (2:49:34.080)

There is no tactical advantage there.

Lex Fridman (2:49:36.420)

You think so?

Andrew Bustamante (2:49:37.260)

Absolutely.

Lex Fridman (2:49:38.100)

What about?

Andrew Bustamante (2:49:38.920)

If the Austin PD started telling you every day

Lex Fridman (2:49:44.060)

about these crazy crimes that they prevented,

Lex Fridman (2:49:48.140)

would that make you feel more safe?

Lex Fridman (2:49:49.860)

It would make you feel like they're doing their job.

Lex Fridman (2:49:51.460)

Is that obvious to you, make us feel less safe?

Lex Fridman (2:49:53.620)

Because if we see competence,

Andrew Bustamante (2:49:55.620)

that there is extremely competent defenders

Lex Fridman (2:49:59.900)

of this territory of these people,

Lex Fridman (2:50:02.940)

wouldn't that make us feel more safe or no?

Lex Fridman (2:50:05.060)

The human nature is not to assign competence.

Lex Fridman (2:50:08.880)

So empirically, humans overvalue losses

Lex Fridman (2:50:14.980)

and undervalue gains.

Andrew Bustamante (2:50:17.140)

That's something that we've seen from finance

Lex Fridman (2:50:19.220)

to betting and beyond.

Andrew Bustamante (2:50:21.500)

If the Austin Police Department starts telling you

Lex Fridman (2:50:23.580)

about all these heinous crimes that were avoided

Andrew Bustamante (2:50:26.780)

because of their hard work,

Lex Fridman (2:50:28.960)

the way that your brain is actually going

Andrew Bustamante (2:50:30.740)

to process that information is you are going to say,

Lex Fridman (2:50:33.620)

if this is all the stuff that they've stopped,

Lex Fridman (2:50:36.860)

how bad must this place be?

Lex Fridman (2:50:39.700)

How much more haven't they stopped?

Andrew Bustamante (2:50:41.940)

I take your point, it's a powerful psychological point,

Lex Fridman (2:50:45.380)

but looking at the other picture of it,

Andrew Bustamante (2:50:49.200)

looking at the police force, looking at the CIA, the NSA,

Lex Fridman (2:50:53.720)

those people, now with the police,

Andrew Bustamante (2:50:56.680)

they're seeing, there's such a negative feeling

Lex Fridman (2:51:00.020)

amongst Americans towards these institutions.

Andrew Bustamante (2:51:03.460)

Who the hell wants to work for the CIA now

Lex Fridman (2:51:06.620)

and the police force?

Andrew Bustamante (2:51:07.940)

Like, you're gonna be criticized,

Lex Fridman (2:51:12.540)

like that's a, I mean, that's really bad for the CIA.

Andrew Bustamante (2:51:16.980)

It's terrible.

Lex Fridman (2:51:18.100)

Like, as opposed to being seen as a hero,

Andrew Bustamante (2:51:20.500)

like for example, currently soldiers are for the most part

Lex Fridman (2:51:25.060)

seen as heroes that are protecting this nation.

Andrew Bustamante (2:51:30.220)

That's not the case for the CIA.

Lex Fridman (2:51:32.700)

Soldiers weren't seen as heroes in the Vietnam War, right?

Andrew Bustamante (2:51:36.840)

You've got to remember that when you,

Lex Fridman (2:51:39.480)

so first of all, public service is a sacrifice.

Andrew Bustamante (2:51:43.580)

We oftentimes forget that.

Lex Fridman (2:51:45.260)

We start to think, oh, government jobs are cushy

Lex Fridman (2:51:47.300)

and they're easy, and it must be so easy

Lex Fridman (2:51:49.360)

to be the president,

Andrew Bustamante (2:51:50.200)

because then you're basically a celebrity overnight.

Lex Fridman (2:51:52.980)

Public service is a sacrifice, it's a grind.

Andrew Bustamante (2:51:57.700)

For all of the soldiers, the submariners,

Lex Fridman (2:52:02.300)

the missileers, the police officers,

Andrew Bustamante (2:52:05.020)

intelligence specialists,

Lex Fridman (2:52:06.540)

they all know what it's like to give things up,

Andrew Bustamante (2:52:09.020)

to serve a public that can turn its opinion

Lex Fridman (2:52:12.620)

at any given time.

Lex Fridman (2:52:14.620)

And history is what defines it.

Lex Fridman (2:52:16.900)

The more important thing is to understand that

Andrew Bustamante (2:52:19.060)

if you want a true open and fair democracy,

Lex Fridman (2:52:22.300)

you cannot control a narrative.

Lex Fridman (2:52:25.300)

And starting to share all of your victories

Lex Fridman (2:52:27.580)

or starting to share your biggest victories

Andrew Bustamante (2:52:29.460)

with the intent of shaping public opinion

Lex Fridman (2:52:31.620)

to be supportive of the police force or supportive of CIA

Andrew Bustamante (2:52:35.380)

or supportive of you name it, is shaping a narrative

Lex Fridman (2:52:39.180)

that is intentional operational use of influence

Andrew Bustamante (2:52:43.280)

to drive public opinion.

Lex Fridman (2:52:45.540)

That is something nobody wants to get into.

Andrew Bustamante (2:52:47.660)

It is much more professional to be a silent sentinel,

Lex Fridman (2:52:50.400)

a silent servant, humbly carrying the burden

Andrew Bustamante (2:52:54.140)

of public service in the United States

Lex Fridman (2:52:56.040)

where we are a fair and open democracy.

Lex Fridman (2:52:59.220)

Why, why not celebrate the killing of Bin Laden?

Lex Fridman (2:53:04.220)

We did.

Andrew Bustamante (2:53:05.060)

The search, discovery, and the capture

Lex Fridman (2:53:06.840)

and the killing of Bin Laden.

Andrew Bustamante (2:53:08.380)

Wasn't that, actually the details of that,

Lex Fridman (2:53:10.640)

how much of the details of that,

Lex Fridman (2:53:12.520)

how he was discovered were made public?

Lex Fridman (2:53:15.440)

I think some of it was made public enough.

Lex Fridman (2:53:17.520)

Why not do that?

Lex Fridman (2:53:19.080)

Doesn't that make heroes out of the people

Lex Fridman (2:53:21.500)

that are servants?

Lex Fridman (2:53:23.480)

Or do people who serve to do service for this nation,

Andrew Bustamante (2:53:28.800)

do they always have to operate

Lex Fridman (2:53:30.840)

in a thankless manner in the shadows?

Andrew Bustamante (2:53:34.600)

I think that's a very good question.

Lex Fridman (2:53:36.920)

The folks who I left behind when I left CIA,

Andrew Bustamante (2:53:41.840)

who continue to serve as faceless,

Lex Fridman (2:53:45.720)

nameless heroes every day, I am grateful to them.

Andrew Bustamante (2:53:51.800)

The truth is that if they were motivated by something else,

Lex Fridman (2:53:56.760)

they wouldn't be as good as they are at doing what they do.

Lex Fridman (2:53:59.800)

And I see your point about,

Lex Fridman (2:54:03.980)

shouldn't we be celebrating our victories?

Lex Fridman (2:54:07.020)

But when celebrating our victories

Lex Fridman (2:54:09.040)

runs the risk of informing our enemies how we operate,

Andrew Bustamante (2:54:15.200)

giving away our informational advantage,

Lex Fridman (2:54:17.020)

giving away our tactical battlefield advantage,

Lex Fridman (2:54:19.220)

and running the risk of shaping a narrative intentionally

Lex Fridman (2:54:22.280)

among our own American people,

Andrew Bustamante (2:54:24.100)

now all of a sudden we're turning into exactly the thing

Lex Fridman (2:54:27.440)

that the American people trust us not to become.

Andrew Bustamante (2:54:31.960)

Yeah, but then you operate in the secrecy,

Lex Fridman (2:54:34.200)

and then there's corrupt and douchebag people everywhere.

Lex Fridman (2:54:39.040)

So when they, even inside the CIA and criminals,

Lex Fridman (2:54:42.960)

inside the CIA there's criminals in all organizations,

Andrew Bustamante (2:54:45.940)

in all walks of life, human nature as such,

Lex Fridman (2:54:48.680)

that this is always the case,

Andrew Bustamante (2:54:50.460)

then it breeds conspiracy theories.

Lex Fridman (2:54:53.240)

It does.

Lex Fridman (2:54:54.760)

And sometimes those conspiracy theories

Lex Fridman (2:54:56.340)

turn out to be true.

Lex Fridman (2:54:57.560)

But most times they don't.

Lex Fridman (2:54:59.780)

That's just part of the risk of being a myth.

Lex Fridman (2:55:04.000)

Can you speak to some of the myths?

Lex Fridman (2:55:05.880)

So MKUltra, so.

Andrew Bustamante (2:55:08.840)

Not a myth.

Lex Fridman (2:55:09.800)

Not a myth.

Lex Fridman (2:55:10.820)

So this is a fascinating human experimentation program

Lex Fridman (2:55:14.520)

undertaken by the CIA to develop procedures

Andrew Bustamante (2:55:17.400)

for using drugs like LSD to interrogate people

Lex Fridman (2:55:20.820)

through, let's say, psychological manipulation

Lex Fridman (2:55:23.960)

and maybe even torture.

Lex Fridman (2:55:25.900)

The scale of the program is perhaps not known.

Lex Fridman (2:55:29.520)

How do you make sense that this program existed?

Lex Fridman (2:55:32.000)

Again, you've gotta look through the lens of time.

Andrew Bustamante (2:55:33.780)

You've gotta look at where we were historically

Lex Fridman (2:55:35.480)

at that time.

Andrew Bustamante (2:55:36.320)

There was the peak of the Cold War.

Lex Fridman (2:55:38.480)

Our enemies were doing the same kind of experimentation.

Andrew Bustamante (2:55:41.880)

It was essentially another space race.

Lex Fridman (2:55:44.440)

What if they broke through a new weapon technology

Lex Fridman (2:55:49.000)

faster than we did?

Lex Fridman (2:55:50.240)

What would that mean for the safety and security

Lex Fridman (2:55:52.240)

of the American people?

Lex Fridman (2:55:54.760)

So right decision or wrong decision,

Andrew Bustamante (2:55:57.400)

it was guided by and informed

Lex Fridman (2:56:00.040)

by national security priorities.

Lex Fridman (2:56:02.160)

So from this program that was designed to use drugs

Lex Fridman (2:56:06.640)

to drive interrogation and torture people

Andrew Bustamante (2:56:08.800)

was born something very productive, Operation Stargate,

Lex Fridman (2:56:12.600)

which was a chance to use remote viewing and metaphysics

Andrew Bustamante (2:56:17.480)

to try to collect intelligence.

Lex Fridman (2:56:19.200)

Now, even though in the end, the outcome of MKUltra

Lex Fridman (2:56:23.600)

and the outcome of Stargate were mixed,

Lex Fridman (2:56:25.540)

nobody really knows if they did or didn't do

Lex Fridman (2:56:27.040)

what they were supposed to do,

Lex Fridman (2:56:28.480)

we still know that to this day,

Andrew Bustamante (2:56:30.400)

there's still a demand in the US government and in CIA

Lex Fridman (2:56:34.080)

for people who have sensitivities to ethereal energies.

Andrew Bustamante (2:56:39.080)

By the way, is there any proof

Lex Fridman (2:56:40.680)

that that kind of stuff works?

Andrew Bustamante (2:56:41.800)

Or it just shows that there's interest.

Lex Fridman (2:56:46.320)

It shows that there's openness

Andrew Bustamante (2:56:47.960)

to consider those kinds of things.

Lex Fridman (2:56:49.700)

But is there any evidence that that kind of stuff works?

Andrew Bustamante (2:56:51.720)

If there's evidence, I haven't seen it.

Lex Fridman (2:56:54.800)

Speaking from a science based point of view only,

Andrew Bustamante (2:56:58.880)

if energy and matter can always be exchanged,

Lex Fridman (2:57:03.000)

then a person who can understand

Lex Fridman (2:57:05.880)

and become sensitive to energy

Lex Fridman (2:57:09.040)

is a person who could become sensitive

Andrew Bustamante (2:57:11.520)

to what does become matter.

Lex Fridman (2:57:13.680)

Yeah, I mean, the basics of the physics might be there,

Lex Fridman (2:57:17.460)

but a lot of people probably are skeptical.

Lex Fridman (2:57:20.000)

I'm skeptical too, but I'm just trying to look at it.

Lex Fridman (2:57:21.640)

You should be open minded, right?

Lex Fridman (2:57:23.040)

I mean, that's actually, you know,

Andrew Bustamante (2:57:26.320)

that's what science is about, is remain open minded,

Lex Fridman (2:57:28.680)

even for the things that are long shots,

Andrew Bustamante (2:57:30.560)

because those are the things

Lex Fridman (2:57:31.520)

that actually define scientific revolutions.

Lex Fridman (2:57:34.400)

What about Operation Northwoods?

Lex Fridman (2:57:37.600)

It was a proposed 1962 false flag operation

Andrew Bustamante (2:57:41.600)

by the DOD and the CIA to be carried out by the CIA

Lex Fridman (2:57:46.960)

to commit acts of terrorism on Americans

Lex Fridman (2:57:50.400)

and blame them on Cuba.

Lex Fridman (2:57:52.280)

So JFK, the president, rejected the proposal.

Lex Fridman (2:57:55.760)

What do you make that this was on the table,

Lex Fridman (2:57:58.080)

Operation Northwoods?

Lex Fridman (2:57:59.360)

So it's interesting.

Lex Fridman (2:58:00.760)

First, I'm glad that JFK rejected it.

Andrew Bustamante (2:58:02.920)

That's a good sign.

Lex Fridman (2:58:05.440)

So we have to understand that good ideas

Andrew Bustamante (2:58:09.120)

are oftentimes born from bad ideas.

Lex Fridman (2:58:12.100)

I had a really good friend of mine

Andrew Bustamante (2:58:14.240)

who actually went on to become a pastor,

Lex Fridman (2:58:16.920)

and he used to say all the time

Andrew Bustamante (2:58:18.560)

that he wanted all the bad ideas on the table.

Lex Fridman (2:58:20.440)

Like, give me all your bad ideas

Andrew Bustamante (2:58:21.880)

every time we had any kind of conversation.

Lex Fridman (2:58:23.920)

And I was always one of those people who was like,

Lex Fridman (2:58:25.400)

isn't a bad idea just a waste of time?

Lex Fridman (2:58:28.000)

And he was like, no,

Andrew Bustamante (2:58:28.840)

because the best ideas oftentimes come from bad ideas.

Lex Fridman (2:58:31.360)

So again, Cuban missile crisis,

Andrew Bustamante (2:58:35.040)

mass hysteria in the United States

Lex Fridman (2:58:36.960)

about nuclear war from Cuba,

Andrew Bustamante (2:58:38.520)

missiles blowing up American cities faster

Lex Fridman (2:58:41.160)

than we could even see them coming.

Andrew Bustamante (2:58:43.040)

It makes sense to me that a president would go to,

Lex Fridman (2:58:45.960)

especially the part of CIA,

Andrew Bustamante (2:58:48.520)

which is the Special Activities Division,

Lex Fridman (2:58:51.440)

it makes perfect sense to me

Andrew Bustamante (2:58:52.280)

that the president would go to a division

Lex Fridman (2:58:54.040)

called Special Activities,

Andrew Bustamante (2:58:55.320)

whose job it is to create crazy ideas

Lex Fridman (2:58:59.560)

that have presidential approval,

Lex Fridman (2:59:02.460)

but nobody knows they exist.

Lex Fridman (2:59:04.600)

So it makes sense that he would challenge a group like that

Lex Fridman (2:59:07.080)

to come up with any wacky idea, right?

Lex Fridman (2:59:09.320)

Come up with anything.

Andrew Bustamante (2:59:10.140)

Just let's start with something,

Lex Fridman (2:59:11.440)

because we can't bring nothing to the table.

Andrew Bustamante (2:59:13.820)

We have to do something about this Cuban issue.

Lex Fridman (2:59:15.760)

And then that's how an operation like that

Andrew Bustamante (2:59:17.720)

could reasonably be born.

Lex Fridman (2:59:19.200)

Not because anybody wants to do it,

Lex Fridman (2:59:20.860)

but because they were tasked by the president

Lex Fridman (2:59:22.480)

to come up with five ideas.

Lex Fridman (2:59:24.820)

And it was one of the ideas.

Lex Fridman (2:59:27.600)

That still happens to this day.

Andrew Bustamante (2:59:29.560)

The president will still come in,

Lex Fridman (2:59:31.120)

but it'll basically send out a notice

Andrew Bustamante (2:59:33.000)

to his covert action arm.

Lex Fridman (2:59:34.840)

And he will say, I need this.

Lex Fridman (2:59:38.080)

And I need it on Wednesday.

Lex Fridman (2:59:39.600)

And people have to come back with options

Andrew Bustamante (2:59:41.920)

for the thing he asked for, a finding.

Lex Fridman (2:59:44.400)

He will issue a presidential finding.

Lex Fridman (2:59:46.440)

And then his covert action arms have to come back and say,

Lex Fridman (2:59:48.640)

here's how we would do this

Lex Fridman (2:59:49.840)

and hide the hands of the Americans.

Lex Fridman (2:59:53.000)

How gangster was it of JFK to reject it though?

Lex Fridman (2:59:55.520)

His baller, right?

Lex Fridman (2:59:57.480)

That's like, that is a mic drop right there.

Andrew Bustamante (30:02.060)

that they're going to be trillions of dollars in debt

Lex Fridman (30:04.860)

to the West for supplying them with the training

Lex Fridman (30:08.940)

and the weapons and the food and the med kits

Lex Fridman (30:10.900)

and everything else that we're giving them

Andrew Bustamante (30:12.300)

because none of it's free.

Lex Fridman (30:13.980)

It's all coming due.

Andrew Bustamante (30:16.100)

We're a democracy, but we're also a capitalist country.

Lex Fridman (30:19.900)

We can't afford to just give things away for free,

Lex Fridman (30:22.700)

but we can give things away at a discount.

Lex Fridman (30:24.340)

We can give things away, lay away,

Lex Fridman (30:26.540)

but the bill will come due.

Lex Fridman (30:28.380)

And unfortunately that is not part of the conversation

Andrew Bustamante (30:30.980)

that's being had with the American people.

Lex Fridman (30:32.420)

So debt is a way to establish some level of control.

Andrew Bustamante (30:36.900)

Power is power.

Lex Fridman (30:39.260)

That said, having a very close relationship

Andrew Bustamante (30:43.660)

between Ukraine and the United States

Lex Fridman (30:44.940)

does not seem to be a negative possibility

Andrew Bustamante (30:50.620)

when the Ukrainians think about their future

Lex Fridman (30:52.500)

in terms of freedom.

Andrew Bustamante (30:53.540)

That's one thing.

Lex Fridman (30:54.380)

And the other, there's some aspect of this war

Andrew Bustamante (30:57.340)

that I've just noticed that one of the people I talked to

Lex Fridman (31:01.020)

said that all great nations have a independence war,

Andrew Bustamante (31:08.140)

have to have a war for their independence.

Lex Fridman (31:10.140)

In order, there's something, it's dark,

Lex Fridman (31:12.220)

but there's something about war just being a catalyst

Lex Fridman (31:16.220)

for finding your own identity as a nation.

Lex Fridman (31:18.860)

So you can have leaders, you can have sort of

Lex Fridman (31:21.540)

signed documents, you can have all this kind of stuff,

Lex Fridman (31:23.780)

but there's something about war

Lex Fridman (31:24.940)

that really brings the country together

Lex Fridman (31:26.820)

and actually try to figure out what is at the core

Lex Fridman (31:29.860)

of the spirit of the people that defines this country.

Lex Fridman (31:32.820)

And they see this war as that,

Lex Fridman (31:36.540)

as the independence war to define the heart

Andrew Bustamante (31:38.500)

of what the country is.

Lex Fridman (31:39.340)

So there's been before the war, before this invasion,

Andrew Bustamante (31:43.780)

there was a lot of factions in the country.

Lex Fridman (31:46.300)

There was a lot of influence from oligarchs

Lex Fridman (31:50.420)

and corruption and so on.

Lex Fridman (31:51.940)

A lot of that was the factions were brought together

Andrew Bustamante (31:56.180)

under one umbrella effectively to become one nation

Lex Fridman (31:59.980)

because of this invasion.

Lex Fridman (32:01.420)

So they see that as a positive direction

Lex Fridman (32:04.740)

for the defining of what a free democratic country

Andrew Bustamante (32:10.300)

looks like after the war,

Lex Fridman (32:12.020)

in their perspective after the war is won.

Andrew Bustamante (32:14.740)

It's a difficult situation because I'm trying to make sure

Lex Fridman (32:19.220)

that you and all, everybody listening understands

Andrew Bustamante (32:22.140)

that what's happening in Ukraine, among Ukrainians,

Lex Fridman (32:25.420)

is noble and brave and courageous

Lex Fridman (32:29.140)

and beyond the expectations of anyone.

Lex Fridman (32:35.500)

The fact is there is no material support

Andrew Bustamante (32:38.860)

coming from the outside.

Lex Fridman (32:40.100)

The American Revolution was won

Andrew Bustamante (32:43.020)

because of French involvement.

Lex Fridman (32:44.620)

French ships, French troops, French generals,

Andrew Bustamante (32:47.900)

French military might.

Lex Fridman (32:49.700)

The independence of communist China was won

Andrew Bustamante (32:55.500)

through Russian support, Russian generals,

Lex Fridman (32:57.740)

Russian troops on the ground fighting with the communists.

Andrew Bustamante (33:01.020)

That's how revolutions are won.

Lex Fridman (33:03.660)

That's how independent countries are born.

Andrew Bustamante (33:06.340)

Ukraine doesn't get any of that.

Lex Fridman (33:08.340)

No one is stepping into that

Andrew Bustamante (33:10.020)

because we live in a world right now

Lex Fridman (33:14.020)

where there simply is no economic benefits

Andrew Bustamante (33:17.780)

to the parties in power to support Ukraine to that level.

Lex Fridman (33:21.580)

And war is a game of economics.

Andrew Bustamante (33:24.500)

The economic benefit of Ukraine is crystal clear

Lex Fridman (33:28.900)

in favor of Russia, which is why Putin cannot lose.

Andrew Bustamante (33:31.420)

He will not let himself lose.

Lex Fridman (33:33.540)

Short of something completely unexpected, right?

Andrew Bustamante (33:36.580)

I'm talking 60%, 70% probability, Ukraine loses.

Lex Fridman (33:40.100)

But there's still 20%, 30% probability

Andrew Bustamante (33:42.540)

of the unimaginable happening.

Lex Fridman (33:44.700)

Who knows what that might be?

Andrew Bustamante (33:45.860)

An oligarch assassinates Putin

Lex Fridman (33:48.060)

or a nuclear bomb goes off somewhere

Lex Fridman (33:50.500)

or who knows what, right?

Lex Fridman (33:52.940)

There's still a chance

Andrew Bustamante (33:53.940)

that something unexpected will happen

Lex Fridman (33:55.540)

and change the tide of the war.

Lex Fridman (33:57.580)

But when it comes down to the core calculus here,

Lex Fridman (34:01.580)

Ukraine is the agricultural bed to support a future Russia.

Andrew Bustamante (34:06.260)

Russia knows, they know they have to have Ukraine.

Lex Fridman (34:09.580)

They know that they have to have it to protect themselves

Andrew Bustamante (34:11.740)

against military pressure from the West.

Lex Fridman (34:13.540)

They have to have it for agricultural reasons.

Andrew Bustamante (34:15.620)

They have major oil and natural gas pipelines

Lex Fridman (34:20.100)

that flow through Eastern Ukraine.

Andrew Bustamante (34:22.620)

They cannot let Ukraine fall

Lex Fridman (34:25.500)

outside of their sphere of influence.

Andrew Bustamante (34:27.220)

They cannot.

Lex Fridman (34:28.420)

The United States doesn't really have

Andrew Bustamante (34:31.060)

any economic vested interest in Ukraine.

Lex Fridman (34:33.620)

Ideological points of view and promises aside,

Andrew Bustamante (34:37.740)

there's no economic benefit.

Lex Fridman (34:39.220)

And the same thing goes for NATO.

Andrew Bustamante (34:41.260)

NATO has no economic investment in Ukraine.

Lex Fridman (34:44.420)

Ukrainian output, Ukrainian food

Andrew Bustamante (34:49.180)

goes to the Middle East and Africa.

Lex Fridman (34:51.060)

It doesn't go to Europe.

Lex Fridman (34:53.780)

So the whole, the West siding with Ukraine

Lex Fridman (34:58.260)

is exclusively ideological

Lex Fridman (35:00.340)

and it's putting them in a place

Lex Fridman (35:02.420)

where they fight a war with Russia

Lex Fridman (35:04.100)

so the whole world can see Russia's capabilities.

Lex Fridman (35:06.540)

Ukraine is a, as sad as it is to say, man,

Andrew Bustamante (35:09.660)

Ukraine is a pawn on a table for superpowers

Lex Fridman (35:14.660)

to calculate each other's capacities.

Andrew Bustamante (35:17.420)

Right now we've only talked about Russia and the United States.

Lex Fridman (35:19.660)

We haven't even talked about Iran.

Lex Fridman (35:21.140)

We haven't even talked about China, right?

Lex Fridman (35:23.740)

It is a pawn on a table.

Andrew Bustamante (35:24.980)

This is a chicken fight so that people get to watch

Lex Fridman (35:27.340)

and see what the other trainers are doing.

Andrew Bustamante (35:29.620)

Well, a lot of people might've said the same thing

Lex Fridman (35:31.580)

about the United States back in the independence fight.

Lex Fridman (35:34.140)

So there is possibilities, as you've said.

Lex Fridman (35:38.420)

We're not saying a 0% chance

Lex Fridman (35:41.900)

and it could be a reasonably high percent chance

Lex Fridman (35:44.580)

that this becomes one of the great democratic nations

Andrew Bustamante (35:48.060)

that the 21st century is remembered by.

Lex Fridman (35:50.140)

Absolutely.

Lex Fridman (35:50.980)

And so you said American support.

Lex Fridman (35:55.100)

So ideologically, first of all,

Andrew Bustamante (35:57.580)

you don't assign much longterm power to that.

Lex Fridman (36:03.180)

That US could support Ukraine

Andrew Bustamante (36:05.980)

purely on ideological grounds.

Lex Fridman (36:09.140)

Just look in the last four years, the last three years.

Lex Fridman (36:12.820)

Do you remember what happened in Hong Kong

Lex Fridman (36:14.460)

right before COVID?

Andrew Bustamante (36:16.860)

China swooped into Hong Kong violently,

Lex Fridman (36:21.540)

beating protesters, killing them in the street,

Andrew Bustamante (36:23.820)

imprisoning people without just cause.

Lex Fridman (36:26.700)

And Hong Kong was a democracy

Lex Fridman (36:30.060)

and the whole world stood by and let it happen.

Lex Fridman (36:32.580)

And then what happened in Afghanistan just a year ago

Lex Fridman (36:35.580)

and the whole world stood by

Lex Fridman (36:37.740)

and let the Taliban take power again

Andrew Bustamante (36:39.580)

after 20 years of loss.

Lex Fridman (36:41.700)

This, we are showing a repeatable point of view.

Andrew Bustamante (36:46.420)

We will talk.

Lex Fridman (36:47.700)

American politicians, American administrations,

Andrew Bustamante (36:50.900)

we will say a lot of things.

Lex Fridman (36:52.940)

We will promise a lot of ideological pro democracy,

Andrew Bustamante (36:56.340)

rah rah statements.

Lex Fridman (36:58.420)

We will say it.

Lex Fridman (36:59.820)

But when it comes down to putting our own people,

Lex Fridman (37:02.740)

our own economy, our own GDP at risk,

Andrew Bustamante (37:07.260)

we step away from that fight.

Lex Fridman (37:09.260)

America is currently supplying

Andrew Bustamante (37:11.500)

military equipment to Ukraine.

Lex Fridman (37:13.060)

Absolutely.

Lex Fridman (37:13.900)

And a lot of that military equipment

Lex Fridman (37:14.980)

has actually been the thing that turned

Andrew Bustamante (37:17.500)

the tides of war a couple of times already.

Lex Fridman (37:20.540)

Currently that's the high mar systems.

Lex Fridman (37:23.500)

So you mentioned sort of Putin can't afford to lose,

Lex Fridman (37:27.700)

but winning can look in different ways.

Lex Fridman (37:29.980)

So you've kind of defined so on.

Lex Fridman (37:32.180)

At this moment, the prediction is that winning

Andrew Bustamante (37:35.980)

looks like capturing not just the east,

Lex Fridman (37:38.860)

but the south of Ukraine.

Lex Fridman (37:41.260)

But you can have narratives of winning

Lex Fridman (37:44.540)

that return back to what was at the beginning of this year

Andrew Bustamante (37:48.820)

before the invasion.

Lex Fridman (37:49.820)

Correct.

Andrew Bustamante (37:50.660)

That Crimea is still with Russia.

Lex Fridman (37:53.820)

There's some kind of negotiated thing about Donbass

Andrew Bustamante (37:56.660)

where it still stays with Ukraine,

Lex Fridman (37:58.140)

but there's some.

Andrew Bustamante (37:59.580)

Puppet government.

Lex Fridman (38:00.420)

Yeah.

Andrew Bustamante (38:01.260)

Just like that's what they have in Georgia right now.

Lex Fridman (38:03.740)

And that could still be defined through mechanisms.

Andrew Bustamante (38:07.300)

As Russia winning.

Lex Fridman (38:08.340)

As Russia winning for Russia and then for Ukraine

Andrew Bustamante (38:11.020)

as Ukraine winning and for the west as democracy winning

Lex Fridman (38:16.980)

and you kind of negotiate.

Andrew Bustamante (38:19.060)

I mean, that seems to be how geopolitics works

Lex Fridman (38:22.260)

is everybody can walk away with a win win story

Lex Fridman (38:25.860)

and then the world progresses with the lessons learned.

Lex Fridman (38:28.980)

That's the high likely.

Andrew Bustamante (38:29.860)

That's the most probable outcome.

Lex Fridman (38:31.580)

The most probable outcome is that Ukraine remains

Andrew Bustamante (38:35.820)

in air quotes, a sovereign nation.

Lex Fridman (38:38.820)

It's not going to be truly sovereign

Andrew Bustamante (38:41.380)

because it will become,

Lex Fridman (38:43.540)

it will have to have new government put in place.

Andrew Bustamante (38:47.460)

Zelinsky will, it's extremely unlikely he will be president

Lex Fridman (38:50.660)

because he has gone too far to demonstrate his power

Andrew Bustamante (38:55.460)

over the people and his ability to separate

Lex Fridman (38:58.140)

the Ukrainian people from the autocratic power of Russia.

Lex Fridman (39:02.420)

So he would have to be unseated whether he goes into exile

Lex Fridman (39:06.420)

or whether he is peacefully left alone

Andrew Bustamante (39:09.380)

is all gonna be part of negotiations.

Lex Fridman (39:11.100)

But the thing to keep in mind also is that

Andrew Bustamante (39:14.220)

a negotiated peace really just means a negotiated ceasefire.

Lex Fridman (39:17.740)

We've seen this happen all over the world.

Andrew Bustamante (39:19.060)

North Korea and South Korea are technically still

Lex Fridman (39:20.780)

just in negotiated cease power.

Lex Fridman (39:23.060)

What you end up having is Russia will allow Ukraine

Lex Fridman (39:27.140)

to call itself Ukraine, to operate independently,

Andrew Bustamante (39:29.620)

to have their own debt to the United States.

Lex Fridman (39:32.020)

Russia doesn't wanna take on that debt.

Lex Fridman (39:34.420)

And then in exchange for that,

Lex Fridman (39:36.660)

they will have firmer guidelines

Andrew Bustamante (39:38.700)

as to how NATO can engage with Ukraine.

Lex Fridman (39:41.660)

And then that becomes an example

Andrew Bustamante (39:43.140)

for all the other former Soviet satellite states,

Lex Fridman (39:45.180)

which are all required economically by Russia,

Andrew Bustamante (39:48.100)

not required economically by the West.

Lex Fridman (39:51.660)

And then you end up seeing how it just,

Andrew Bustamante (39:53.780)

you can see how the whole thing plays out

Lex Fridman (39:55.460)

once you realize that the keystone is Ukraine.

Andrew Bustamante (3:00:00.040)

Nope, not doing that.

Lex Fridman (3:00:01.520)

Yep, doing that.

Andrew Bustamante (3:00:03.680)

A thing that crosses an ethical line,

Lex Fridman (3:00:07.440)

even in a time where the human,

Andrew Bustamante (3:00:10.880)

the entirety of human civilization hangs in a balance,

Lex Fridman (3:00:13.640)

still forfeit that power.

Andrew Bustamante (3:00:16.160)

That's a beautiful thing about the American experiment.

Lex Fridman (3:00:20.560)

That's a few times throughout the history

Andrew Bustamante (3:00:22.560)

that this has happened,

Lex Fridman (3:00:23.840)

including with our first president, George Washington.

Andrew Bustamante (3:00:28.160)

Well, let me ask about JFK.

Lex Fridman (3:00:30.280)

25 times two, and they still keep that stuff classified.

Lex Fridman (3:00:35.280)

So do you think the CIA had a hand

Lex Fridman (3:00:40.880)

in the assassination of JFK?

Andrew Bustamante (3:00:43.680)

I cannot imagine in any reasonable point of view

Lex Fridman (3:00:48.680)

that the organization of CIA had anything to do

Andrew Bustamante (3:00:51.560)

with the assassination of JFK.

Lex Fridman (3:00:53.120)

So it's not possible to infiltrate the CIA,

Andrew Bustamante (3:00:57.160)

a small part of the CIA in order to attain political

Lex Fridman (3:01:02.160)

or criminal gains, or financial.

Andrew Bustamante (3:01:07.840)

Yeah, absolutely it's possible to infiltrate CIA.

Lex Fridman (3:01:10.840)

There's a long history of foreign intelligence services

Andrew Bustamante (3:01:14.640)

infiltrating CIA, from Aldrich Ames

Lex Fridman (3:01:17.480)

to Jerry Lee recently with China.

Lex Fridman (3:01:20.520)

So we know CIA can be infiltrated,

Lex Fridman (3:01:24.400)

even if they are infiltrated,

Lex Fridman (3:01:25.960)

and even if that's interlocutor execution

Lex Fridman (3:01:29.640)

that interlocutor executes on their own agenda

Andrew Bustamante (3:01:35.320)

or the agenda as directed by their foreign adversary,

Lex Fridman (3:01:39.480)

their foreign handler,

Andrew Bustamante (3:01:41.000)

that's different than organizational support for an event.

Lex Fridman (3:01:45.120)

So I do think it's possible

Andrew Bustamante (3:01:47.760)

they could have been infiltrated at the time,

Lex Fridman (3:01:49.280)

especially it was a major priority

Andrew Bustamante (3:01:52.720)

for the Cubans and the Russians

Lex Fridman (3:01:54.440)

to infiltrate some aspect of US intelligence,

Andrew Bustamante (3:01:58.560)

multiple moles were caught in the years following.

Lex Fridman (3:02:03.400)

So it's not surprising

Andrew Bustamante (3:02:05.480)

that there would be a priority for that.

Lex Fridman (3:02:07.240)

But to say that the organization of CIA

Andrew Bustamante (3:02:09.480)

was somehow in cahoots with,

Lex Fridman (3:02:12.240)

to independently assassinate their own executive,

Andrew Bustamante (3:02:15.160)

that's a significant stretch.

Lex Fridman (3:02:16.680)

I've seen no evidence to support that.

Lex Fridman (3:02:18.680)

And it goes contrary to everything I learned

Lex Fridman (3:02:21.520)

from my time at CIA.

Andrew Bustamante (3:02:24.600)

Well, let me ask you,

Lex Fridman (3:02:26.120)

do you think CIA played a part in enabling drug cartels

Lex Fridman (3:02:29.840)

and drug trafficking,

Lex Fridman (3:02:31.240)

which is another big kind of

Lex Fridman (3:02:35.680)

shadow that hangs over the CIA?

Lex Fridman (3:02:37.920)

At the beginning of the drug war,

Andrew Bustamante (3:02:39.280)

I would imagine the answer is yes.

Lex Fridman (3:02:42.320)

CIA has its own counter narcotics division,

Andrew Bustamante (3:02:45.200)

a division that's dedicated to fighting

Lex Fridman (3:02:47.640)

and preventing narcotics

Andrew Bustamante (3:02:49.440)

from coming into the United States.

Lex Fridman (3:02:51.320)

So when you paint a picture for me,

Andrew Bustamante (3:02:53.440)

like do you think the CIA was complicit

Lex Fridman (3:02:56.160)

in helping drug trafficking or drug use?

Andrew Bustamante (3:02:59.920)

When I say yes,

Lex Fridman (3:03:01.360)

my exception is I don't think they did that

Andrew Bustamante (3:03:03.360)

for Americans inside the United States.

Lex Fridman (3:03:05.640)

If the CIA can basically set it up

Lex Fridman (3:03:07.720)

so that two different drug cartels shoot each other

Lex Fridman (3:03:10.480)

by assisting in the transaction

Andrew Bustamante (3:03:13.520)

of a sale to a third country

Lex Fridman (3:03:17.960)

and then leaking that that sale happened

Andrew Bustamante (3:03:20.120)

to a competing cartel,

Lex Fridman (3:03:21.680)

that's just letting cartels do what they do.

Andrew Bustamante (3:03:23.800)

That's them doing the dirty work for us.

Lex Fridman (3:03:25.640)

So especially at the beginning of the drug war,

Andrew Bustamante (3:03:27.200)

I think there was tons of space,

Lex Fridman (3:03:28.680)

lots of room for CIA to get involved

Andrew Bustamante (3:03:31.080)

in the economics of drugs

Lex Fridman (3:03:33.720)

and then let the inevitable happen.

Lex Fridman (3:03:35.400)

And that was way more efficient,

Lex Fridman (3:03:36.880)

way more productive than us trying to send our own troops

Andrew Bustamante (3:03:40.840)

in to kill a bunch of cartel warlords.

Lex Fridman (3:03:43.960)

So that makes a ton of sense to me.

Andrew Bustamante (3:03:45.280)

It just seems efficient.

Lex Fridman (3:03:46.120)

It seems very practical.

Andrew Bustamante (3:03:47.280)

I do not believe that CIA would like,

Lex Fridman (3:03:49.480)

I don't think all the accusations out there

Andrew Bustamante (3:03:50.880)

about how they would buy drugs and sell drugs

Lex Fridman (3:03:53.640)

and somehow make money on the side from it.

Andrew Bustamante (3:03:55.280)

That's not how it works.

Lex Fridman (3:03:56.880)

So do you think there's, on that point,

Andrew Bustamante (3:03:59.680)

a connection between Barry Seal,

Lex Fridman (3:04:02.960)

the great governor and then President Bill Clinton,

Andrew Bustamante (3:04:05.760)

Oliver North and Vice President and former CIA Director

Lex Fridman (3:04:08.680)

George H.W. Bush and the little town

Lex Fridman (3:04:11.800)

with a little airport called Mena, Arkansas?

Lex Fridman (3:04:14.920)

So I am out of my element now.

Andrew Bustamante (3:04:17.120)

This is one I haven't heard many details about.

Lex Fridman (3:04:19.840)

Okay, so your sense is any of the drug trafficking

Andrew Bustamante (3:04:25.960)

has to do with criminal operations

Lex Fridman (3:04:28.880)

outside of the United States and the CIA

Andrew Bustamante (3:04:30.800)

just leveraging that to achieve its ends

Lex Fridman (3:04:35.240)

but nothing to do with American citizens

Lex Fridman (3:04:37.520)

and American politicians.

Lex Fridman (3:04:39.840)

With American citizens, again, speaking organizationally.

Lex Fridman (3:04:43.320)

So that would be my sense, yes.

Lex Fridman (3:04:45.620)

Let me ask you about, so back to Operation Northwoods

Andrew Bustamante (3:04:50.500)

because it's such a powerful tool,

Lex Fridman (3:04:55.580)

sadly powerful tool used by dictators throughout history,

Andrew Bustamante (3:04:59.980)

the false flag operation.

Lex Fridman (3:05:04.940)

So I think there's, and you said the terrorist attacks

Andrew Bustamante (3:05:09.140)

in 9 11 were, it changed a lot for us,

Lex Fridman (3:05:14.140)

for the United States, for Americans.

Andrew Bustamante (3:05:18.580)

It changed the way we see the world.

Lex Fridman (3:05:19.860)

It woke us up to the harshness of the world.

Andrew Bustamante (3:05:22.020)

I think there's, to my eyes at least,

Lex Fridman (3:05:25.000)

there's nothing that shows evidence

Andrew Bustamante (3:05:27.340)

that 9 11 was a quote inside job.

Lex Fridman (3:05:30.500)

But is the CIA or the intelligence agencies

Lex Fridman (3:05:37.020)

or the US government capable of something like that?

Lex Fridman (3:05:41.300)

But that's the question.

Lex Fridman (3:05:42.820)

So there's a bunch of shadiness

Lex Fridman (3:05:46.020)

about how it was reported on.

Andrew Bustamante (3:05:47.860)

I just can't, that's the thing I struggle with.

Lex Fridman (3:05:53.860)

While there's no evidence that there was an inside job,

Andrew Bustamante (3:05:57.100)

it raises the question to me,

Lex Fridman (3:05:59.340)

well, could something like this be an inside job?

Andrew Bustamante (3:06:02.980)

Because it sure as heck, now looking back 20 years,

Lex Fridman (3:06:06.620)

the amount of money that was spent on these wars,

Andrew Bustamante (3:06:09.500)

the military industrial complex,

Lex Fridman (3:06:11.700)

the amount of interest in terms of power and money involved,

Lex Fridman (3:06:17.580)

organizationally, can something like that happen?

Lex Fridman (3:06:22.580)

You know Occam's razor.

Lex Fridman (3:06:24.180)

So the harem's razor is that you can never prescribe

Lex Fridman (3:06:28.140)

to conspiracy what could be explained through incompetence.

Andrew Bustamante (3:06:34.060)

That is one of, those are two fundamental guidelines

Lex Fridman (3:06:37.300)

that we follow all the time.

Andrew Bustamante (3:06:38.860)

The simplest answer is oftentimes the best

Lex Fridman (3:06:40.700)

and never prescribe to conspiracy

Lex Fridman (3:06:43.300)

what can be explained through incompetence.

Lex Fridman (3:06:44.740)

Can you elaborate what you mean by we?

Andrew Bustamante (3:06:47.540)

We as intelligence professionals.

Lex Fridman (3:06:50.860)

So you think there's a deep truth to that second razor?

Andrew Bustamante (3:06:55.140)

There is more than a deep truth.

Lex Fridman (3:06:57.660)

There's ages of experience for me and for others.

Lex Fridman (3:07:01.900)

So in general, people are incompetent.

Lex Fridman (3:07:04.620)

If left to their own means they're more incompetent

Andrew Bustamante (3:07:09.060)

than they are malevolent at a large organizational scale.

Lex Fridman (3:07:13.740)

People are more incompetent of executing a conspiracy

Andrew Bustamante (3:07:18.500)

than they are of competently, yeah,

Lex Fridman (3:07:22.440)

than they are of competently executing a conspiracy.

Andrew Bustamante (3:07:25.180)

That's really what it means is that it's so difficult

Lex Fridman (3:07:28.700)

to carry out a complex lie

Andrew Bustamante (3:07:30.780)

that most people don't have the competency to do it.

Lex Fridman (3:07:33.220)

So it doesn't make any sense to lead thinking of conspiracy.

Andrew Bustamante (3:07:36.360)

It makes more sense to lead assuming incompetence.

Lex Fridman (3:07:40.260)

When you look at all of the outcomes,

Andrew Bustamante (3:07:41.880)

all the findings from 9 11, it speaks to incompetence.

Lex Fridman (3:07:45.060)

It speaks brashly and openly to incompetence

Lex Fridman (3:07:48.860)

and nobody likes talking about it.

Lex Fridman (3:07:50.980)

FBI and CIA to this day hate hearing about it.

Andrew Bustamante (3:07:53.780)

The 9 11 commission is gonna go down in history

Lex Fridman (3:07:56.300)

as this painful example of the incompetence

Andrew Bustamante (3:07:58.680)

of the American intelligence community.

Lex Fridman (3:08:01.020)

And it's going to come back again and again.

Andrew Bustamante (3:08:02.900)

Every time there's an intel flap,

Lex Fridman (3:08:04.180)

it's gonna come back again and again.

Lex Fridman (3:08:06.780)

What are you seeing?

Lex Fridman (3:08:07.620)

Even right now, we miss the US intelligence infrastructure,

Andrew Bustamante (3:08:12.100)

misjudged Afghanistan, misjudged Hong Kong,

Lex Fridman (3:08:16.380)

misjudged Ukraine's and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Andrew Bustamante (3:08:20.140)

Those were three massive misjudgments in a few years.

Lex Fridman (3:08:24.420)

That speaks, it's just embarrassing.

Andrew Bustamante (3:08:27.360)

Exactly right.

Lex Fridman (3:08:28.200)

So all the sort of cover up looking things around 9 11

Andrew Bustamante (3:08:33.200)

is just people being embarrassed by their failures.

Lex Fridman (3:08:36.880)

If they're taking steps to cover anything up,

Andrew Bustamante (3:08:39.240)

it's just their own, it's a painful reminder

Lex Fridman (3:08:43.740)

of their lack of competency at the time.

Andrew Bustamante (3:08:46.180)

Now, I understand that conspiracy theorists

Lex Fridman (3:08:48.680)

want to take inklings of information

Lex Fridman (3:08:51.900)

and put them together in a way that is the most damning,

Lex Fridman (3:08:55.760)

but that goes back to our point about overvaluing losses

Lex Fridman (3:08:59.240)

and undervaluing gains.

Lex Fridman (3:09:00.800)

It's just predictable human behavior.

Andrew Bustamante (3:09:03.340)

Let me ask you about this because it comes up often.

Lex Fridman (3:09:07.960)

So I'm from MIT and there's a guy by the name

Andrew Bustamante (3:09:10.880)

of Jeffrey Epstein that still troubles me to this day

Lex Fridman (3:09:15.000)

that some of the people I respect

Andrew Bustamante (3:09:17.480)

were interacted with this individual

Lex Fridman (3:09:20.840)

and fell into his influence.

Andrew Bustamante (3:09:23.840)

The charm, charisma, whatever the hell he used

Lex Fridman (3:09:31.960)

to delude these people, he did so successfully.

Andrew Bustamante (3:09:36.960)

I'm very open minded about this thing.

Lex Fridman (3:09:38.680)

I just, I would love to learn more,

Lex Fridman (3:09:40.400)

but a lot of people tell me, a lot of people I respect,

Lex Fridman (3:09:44.640)

that there's intelligence agencies behind this individual.

Lex Fridman (3:09:47.880)

So they were using Jeffrey Epstein

Lex Fridman (3:09:50.240)

for getting access to powerful people

Lex Fridman (3:09:54.120)

and then to control and manipulate those powerful people.

Lex Fridman (3:09:57.360)

The CIA, I believe, is not brought up as often as Mossad.

Lex Fridman (3:10:01.840)

And so this goes back to the original aspect

Lex Fridman (3:10:04.360)

of our conversation is how much each individual

Andrew Bustamante (3:10:06.960)

intelligence agency is willing to go to control,

Lex Fridman (3:10:10.280)

to manipulate, to achieve its means.

Lex Fridman (3:10:13.500)

Do you think there is, can you educate me?

Lex Fridman (3:10:16.400)

If, obviously you don't know, but you can bet,

Lex Fridman (3:10:21.360)

what are the chances the intelligence agencies

Lex Fridman (3:10:23.960)

are involved with the character of Jeffrey Epstein?

Andrew Bustamante (3:10:26.800)

In some way, shape, or form with the character of Epstein,

Lex Fridman (3:10:29.320)

it's 100% guaranteed that some intelligence organization

Andrew Bustamante (3:10:33.920)

was involved, but let's talk about why.

Lex Fridman (3:10:36.320)

Let's talk about why, okay?

Andrew Bustamante (3:10:38.600)

There's multiple types of intelligence assets,

Lex Fridman (3:10:41.840)

just like we were talking earlier.

Andrew Bustamante (3:10:43.400)

There's foreign intelligence reporting assets,

Lex Fridman (3:10:47.200)

there's access agents,

Lex Fridman (3:10:50.040)

and then there's agents of influence.

Lex Fridman (3:10:51.920)

Three different categories of intelligence, right?

Andrew Bustamante (3:10:54.920)

One is when you talk about foreign intelligence reporters,

Lex Fridman (3:10:58.200)

these are people who have access to secrets

Lex Fridman (3:10:59.720)

and their job is to give you their secrets

Lex Fridman (3:11:02.000)

in exchange for gold or money or alcohol or prostitution

Lex Fridman (3:11:04.600)

or whatever else, right?

Lex Fridman (3:11:05.440)

Their job is to give you secrets

Lex Fridman (3:11:07.080)

and then you pay them for the secrets.

Lex Fridman (3:11:09.120)

Access agents, their job is to give you physical access

Andrew Bustamante (3:11:13.440)

or digital access to something of interest to you.

Lex Fridman (3:11:17.640)

So maybe they're the ones that open a door

Andrew Bustamante (3:11:19.840)

that should have been locked and let you come in

Lex Fridman (3:11:21.320)

and stick your thumb drive in the computer.

Andrew Bustamante (3:11:23.080)

Or maybe they're the ones that share a phone number

Lex Fridman (3:11:25.560)

with somebody and then they're just like,

Andrew Bustamante (3:11:27.480)

just don't tell them you got the phone number from me.

Lex Fridman (3:11:29.080)

Their job is to give you access.

Andrew Bustamante (3:11:31.200)

Then you have these agents of influence.

Lex Fridman (3:11:33.600)

An agent of influence's job is to be part of your effort

Andrew Bustamante (3:11:38.600)

to influence the outcomes in some way

Lex Fridman (3:11:42.440)

that benefits your intelligence requirements, right?

Andrew Bustamante (3:11:45.760)

Of these three types of people,

Lex Fridman (3:11:48.080)

the least scrupulous and the most shady

Andrew Bustamante (3:11:52.480)

is your agent of influence.

Lex Fridman (3:11:54.400)

Because your agent of influence

Andrew Bustamante (3:11:55.520)

understands exactly what they're doing.

Lex Fridman (3:11:57.120)

They know they're working with one guy

Lex Fridman (3:11:59.480)

and they know they're using the influence

Lex Fridman (3:12:02.000)

to manipulate some other guy.

Andrew Bustamante (3:12:04.920)

When it comes to powerful people,

Lex Fridman (3:12:06.960)

especially wealthy, powerful people,

Andrew Bustamante (3:12:10.560)

the only thing that interests them is power.

Lex Fridman (3:12:13.760)

Money is not a challenge anymore.

Andrew Bustamante (3:12:16.040)

Prestige, notoriety, none of those things are a challenge.

Lex Fridman (3:12:19.120)

The rest of us, we're busy trying to make money.

Andrew Bustamante (3:12:21.000)

We're busy trying to build a reputation.

Lex Fridman (3:12:22.720)

We're busy trying to build a career, keep a family afloat.

Andrew Bustamante (3:12:25.280)

At the highest levels, they're bored.

Lex Fridman (3:12:27.040)

They don't need any of that.

Andrew Bustamante (3:12:28.440)

The only thing that they care about

Lex Fridman (3:12:30.080)

is being able to wield power.

Lex Fridman (3:12:31.960)

So a character like Jeffrey Epstein

Lex Fridman (3:12:35.240)

is exactly the kind of character

Andrew Bustamante (3:12:37.920)

that the Chinese would want, the Russians would want,

Lex Fridman (3:12:41.240)

Mossad would want, the French would want.

Andrew Bustamante (3:12:43.960)

It's too easy because the man had access

Lex Fridman (3:12:47.640)

to a wide range of American influential people.

Andrew Bustamante (3:12:52.160)

For corporate espionage uses,

Lex Fridman (3:12:54.320)

for economic espionage uses,

Andrew Bustamante (3:12:56.880)

for national security espionage uses,

Lex Fridman (3:12:59.400)

it doesn't make any sense

Andrew Bustamante (3:13:01.360)

that a person like that wouldn't be targeted.

Lex Fridman (3:13:03.600)

It doesn't.

Lex Fridman (3:13:04.520)

So the question is.

Lex Fridman (3:13:05.960)

Who?

Andrew Bustamante (3:13:07.440)

Who, and whether, I think the really important distinction

Lex Fridman (3:13:14.320)

here is was this person, was Jeffrey Epstein created,

Andrew Bustamante (3:13:18.120)

or once he's achieved and built his network,

Lex Fridman (3:13:21.640)

was he then infiltrated?

Lex Fridman (3:13:23.520)

And that's a really sort of important difference.

Lex Fridman (3:13:26.800)

Like at which stage do you connect a person like that?

Andrew Bustamante (3:13:29.480)

You start to notice maybe they're effective

Lex Fridman (3:13:32.240)

at building a network, and then you start making,

Andrew Bustamante (3:13:36.040)

building a relationship to where at some point

Lex Fridman (3:13:39.040)

it's a job, they're working for you.

Lex Fridman (3:13:41.040)

Or do you literally create a person like that?

Lex Fridman (3:13:43.800)

Yeah, so intelligence organizations

Andrew Bustamante (3:13:45.720)

have different strategies here.

Lex Fridman (3:13:47.120)

In the United States, we never create.

Andrew Bustamante (3:13:49.760)

We don't have a budget cycle that allows us to create.

Lex Fridman (3:13:53.320)

I mean, the maximum budget cycle

Andrew Bustamante (3:13:55.280)

in the United States is five years.

Lex Fridman (3:13:57.120)

So even if we were to try to invest in some seed operation

Andrew Bustamante (3:14:00.480)

or create some character of influence,

Lex Fridman (3:14:03.080)

essentially every year you have to justify

Lex Fridman (3:14:06.080)

why you're spending budget.

Lex Fridman (3:14:07.680)

And that becomes very difficult in a democracy like ours.

Andrew Bustamante (3:14:10.080)

However, Russia and China are extremely adept

Lex Fridman (3:14:13.760)

at seed operations, longterm operations.

Andrew Bustamante (3:14:17.200)

They are willing to invest and develop

Lex Fridman (3:14:20.880)

and create an agent that serves their purposes.

Andrew Bustamante (3:14:25.880)

Now, to create someone from scratch like Jeffrey Epstein,

Lex Fridman (3:14:31.400)

the probabilities are extremely low.

Andrew Bustamante (3:14:33.520)

They would have had to start

Lex Fridman (3:14:34.480)

with like a thousand different targets

Lex Fridman (3:14:36.720)

and try to grow a thousand different,

Lex Fridman (3:14:38.800)

if you will, influencers, and then hope

Andrew Bustamante (3:14:41.200)

that one of them hits,

Lex Fridman (3:14:42.120)

kind of like a venture capital firm, right?

Andrew Bustamante (3:14:44.040)

Invest in many, hope that a few hits.

Lex Fridman (3:14:46.480)

More likely, they observed him at some point

Andrew Bustamante (3:14:50.720)

in his own natural rise.

Lex Fridman (3:14:52.760)

They identified his personal vulnerability,

Andrew Bustamante (3:14:54.960)

very classic espionage technique.

Lex Fridman (3:14:57.040)

And then they stepped in, introduced themselves mid career

Lex Fridman (3:15:00.560)

and said, hey, we know you have this thing that you like

Lex Fridman (3:15:03.560)

that isn't really frowned upon by your own people,

Lex Fridman (3:15:06.440)

but we don't frown upon it.

Lex Fridman (3:15:07.640)

And we can help you both succeed

Lex Fridman (3:15:10.000)

and have an endless supply of ladies along the way.

Lex Fridman (3:15:14.360)

I recently talked to Ryan Graves, who's a lieutenant.

Andrew Bustamante (3:15:17.640)

Ryan Graves, who's a fighter jet pilot,

Lex Fridman (3:15:20.920)

about many things.

Andrew Bustamante (3:15:22.960)

He also does work on autonomous weapon systems,

Lex Fridman (3:15:26.120)

drones, and that kind of thing,

Andrew Bustamante (3:15:27.760)

including quantum computing.

Lex Fridman (3:15:29.480)

But he also happens to be one of the very few pilots

Andrew Bustamante (3:15:33.840)

that were willing to go on record

Lex Fridman (3:15:35.680)

and talk about UFO sightings.

Andrew Bustamante (3:15:39.880)

Does the CIA and the federal government

Lex Fridman (3:15:42.400)

have interest in UFOs?

Andrew Bustamante (3:15:44.640)

In my experience at CIA, that is,

Lex Fridman (3:15:47.360)

an area that remains very compartmented.

Lex Fridman (3:15:51.320)

And that could be one of two reasons.

Lex Fridman (3:15:54.320)

It could be because there is significant interest

Lex Fridman (3:15:56.280)

and that's why it's so heavily compartmented.

Lex Fridman (3:15:58.600)

Or it could be because it's an area that's non,

Andrew Bustamante (3:16:02.440)

that's just not important.

Lex Fridman (3:16:03.600)

It's a distraction.

Lex Fridman (3:16:04.920)

So they compartment it so it doesn't distract

Lex Fridman (3:16:08.040)

from other operations.

Andrew Bustamante (3:16:10.400)

One of the areas that I've been quite interested in

Lex Fridman (3:16:15.400)

and where I've done a lot of research and I've done some work

Andrew Bustamante (3:16:17.360)

in the private intelligence and private investigation side

Lex Fridman (3:16:19.520)

is with UFOs.

Andrew Bustamante (3:16:22.480)

The place where UFOs really connect

Lex Fridman (3:16:25.120)

with the federal government is when it comes

Andrew Bustamante (3:16:26.920)

to aviation safety and predominance of power.

Lex Fridman (3:16:30.760)

So FAA and the U.S. Air Force and the U.S. military

Andrew Bustamante (3:16:34.600)

are very invested in knowing what's happening

Lex Fridman (3:16:36.520)

in the skies above the United States.

Lex Fridman (3:16:38.520)

And that's of primary interest to them.

Lex Fridman (3:16:41.120)

When they can rule out the direct threat to national security

Andrew Bustamante (3:16:45.000)

of UFOs, then they become less interested.

Lex Fridman (3:16:47.880)

That said, when you have unexplained aerial phenomenon

Andrew Bustamante (3:16:52.160)

that are unexplained, that can't directly be tied

Lex Fridman (3:16:56.680)

to anything that is known of the terrestrial world,

Andrew Bustamante (3:17:02.240)

then they're left without an answer to their question.

Lex Fridman (3:17:05.560)

They don't know if it's a threat or not a threat.

Lex Fridman (3:17:08.360)

But I think that's a very important question.

Lex Fridman (3:17:10.720)

But I think the scarier concern

Andrew Bustamante (3:17:12.600)

for the U.S. national government

Lex Fridman (3:17:13.840)

or for the U.S. federal government,

Andrew Bustamante (3:17:15.320)

the scarier concern that nobody talks about

Lex Fridman (3:17:17.000)

is what if the UFO isn't alien?

Lex Fridman (3:17:20.360)

What if it is actually a cutting edge war machine

Lex Fridman (3:17:25.920)

that we are eons behind ever being able to replicate?

Andrew Bustamante (3:17:29.320)

Or the other concern is that it's a system,

Lex Fridman (3:17:34.240)

it's a machine from a foreign power

Andrew Bustamante (3:17:36.880)

that's doing intelligence collection.

Lex Fridman (3:17:38.760)

Correct.

Andrew Bustamante (3:17:39.600)

Not just military purposes, it's actually collecting data.

Lex Fridman (3:17:43.800)

Well, they fall, a lot of times the federal government

Andrew Bustamante (3:17:46.240)

will see the two as the same.

Lex Fridman (3:17:47.200)

It's a hostile tool from a foreign government.

Lex Fridman (3:17:50.200)

So collection of information is a hostile act.

Lex Fridman (3:17:53.680)

Absolutely, that's why the Espionage Act exists.

Andrew Bustamante (3:17:56.600)

That's why it's a criminal offense

Lex Fridman (3:17:58.160)

if you're committing espionage in the United States

Andrew Bustamante (3:18:00.360)

as a U.S. citizen or a foreign citizen.

Lex Fridman (3:18:03.320)

So I guess they keep digging

Andrew Bustamante (3:18:04.680)

until they can confirm it's not a threat.

Lex Fridman (3:18:07.000)

But it just, and you're saying that there's not,

Andrew Bustamante (3:18:10.640)

from your understanding, much evidence that they're doing.

Lex Fridman (3:18:12.840)

So it could be because they're compartmentalized.

Lex Fridman (3:18:17.040)

But you're saying private intelligence institutions

Lex Fridman (3:18:21.520)

are trying to make progress on this.

Andrew Bustamante (3:18:25.560)

Yeah, it's really difficult to know the scale.

Lex Fridman (3:18:29.600)

Yeah, there's an economic interest

Andrew Bustamante (3:18:31.480)

in the private intelligence world.

Lex Fridman (3:18:33.880)

Because, for example, if you understand

Lex Fridman (3:18:36.000)

why certain aerial phenomenon are happening over a location,

Lex Fridman (3:18:40.000)

then you can use that to inform investors,

Andrew Bustamante (3:18:43.360)

whether to invest in that location

Lex Fridman (3:18:44.960)

or avoid investment in that location.

Lex Fridman (3:18:47.080)

But that's not a national security concern.

Lex Fridman (3:18:48.680)

So it doesn't matter to the federal government.

Lex Fridman (3:18:52.600)

Could these UFOs be aliens?

Lex Fridman (3:18:54.560)

Now I'm going into a territory of you as a human being

Andrew Bustamante (3:18:57.320)

wondering about all the alien civilizations

Lex Fridman (3:19:00.080)

that are out there.

Andrew Bustamante (3:19:01.640)

The humbling question.

Lex Fridman (3:19:03.980)

We are not alone.

Andrew Bustamante (3:19:05.560)

You think we're not alone.

Lex Fridman (3:19:07.040)

It's an improbability that we are alone.

Andrew Bustamante (3:19:10.360)

If by virtue of the fact that sentient human life exists,

Lex Fridman (3:19:15.120)

intelligent human life exists,

Andrew Bustamante (3:19:17.440)

all the probabilities that would have to be destroyed

Lex Fridman (3:19:19.360)

for that to be true simply speak over the galaxies

Andrew Bustamante (3:19:22.860)

that exist that there's no possible way we're alone.

Lex Fridman (3:19:26.240)

It's a mathematical equation.

Lex Fridman (3:19:27.800)

It's a one or a zero, right?

Lex Fridman (3:19:30.320)

And for me, it has to exist.

Andrew Bustamante (3:19:32.600)

It's impossible otherwise rationally for me to think

Lex Fridman (3:19:35.480)

that we are truly the only intelligent life form

Andrew Bustamante (3:19:37.960)

in all of the universe.

Lex Fridman (3:19:40.320)

But to think that an alien life form

Andrew Bustamante (3:19:44.000)

is anything like us at all is equally as inconceivable.

Lex Fridman (3:19:49.840)

To think that they're carbon based bipedal humanoid

Andrew Bustamante (3:19:54.320)

alien species that just happened to fly around

Lex Fridman (3:19:57.120)

in metal machines and visit alien planets

Andrew Bustamante (3:20:01.120)

in a way that they become observed

Lex Fridman (3:20:03.840)

is, it's just silly, it's the world of sci fi.

Andrew Bustamante (3:20:07.080)

Well, let me push.

Lex Fridman (3:20:08.000)

Every good scientist,

Andrew Bustamante (3:20:09.880)

because we always assume that they're superior

Lex Fridman (3:20:11.580)

to us in intelligence.

Andrew Bustamante (3:20:12.880)

Yes.

Lex Fridman (3:20:13.720)

When any scientist carries out an experiment,

Andrew Bustamante (3:20:16.440)

the whole objective of the experiment is to observe

Lex Fridman (3:20:19.520)

without being disclosed or being discovered.

Lex Fridman (3:20:23.400)

So why on earth would we think that the superior species

Lex Fridman (3:20:26.320)

makes the mistake of being discovered over and over again?

Lex Fridman (3:20:31.000)

So to push back on that idea,

Lex Fridman (3:20:32.680)

if we were to think about us humans trying to communicate

Andrew Bustamante (3:20:35.680)

with ants, first we observe for a while.

Lex Fridman (3:20:39.440)

There'll be a bunch of PhDs written,

Andrew Bustamante (3:20:41.280)

a bunch of people just sort of collecting data,

Lex Fridman (3:20:45.120)

taking notes, trying to understand about this thing

Andrew Bustamante (3:20:48.440)

that you detected that seems to be a living thing,

Lex Fridman (3:20:50.960)

which is a very difficult thing to define

Andrew Bustamante (3:20:52.560)

from an alien perspective or from our perspective

Lex Fridman (3:20:55.200)

if we find life on Mars or something like that.

Andrew Bustamante (3:20:57.600)

Okay, so you observe for a while.

Lex Fridman (3:20:59.720)

But then if you want to actually interact with it,

Lex Fridman (3:21:02.320)

how would you interact with the ants?

Lex Fridman (3:21:04.440)

If I were to interact with the ants,

Andrew Bustamante (3:21:06.880)

I would try to infiltrate.

Lex Fridman (3:21:10.620)

I would try to figure out what is the language

Andrew Bustamante (3:21:15.080)

they use to communicate with each other.

Lex Fridman (3:21:17.880)

I would try to operate at their physical scale,

Andrew Bustamante (3:21:21.840)

like in terms of the physics of their interaction,

Lex Fridman (3:21:24.620)

in terms of the information, methods, mediums

Andrew Bustamante (3:21:28.520)

of information exchange with pheromones or whatever,

Lex Fridman (3:21:31.400)

however the heck, ants.

Lex Fridman (3:21:33.040)

So I would try to mimic them in some way.

Lex Fridman (3:21:36.000)

So in that sense, it makes sense

Andrew Bustamante (3:21:38.400)

that the objects we would see, you mentioned bipedal.

Lex Fridman (3:21:44.480)

Yes, of course it's ridiculous that aliens

Andrew Bustamante (3:21:46.800)

would actually be very similar to us,

Lex Fridman (3:21:50.240)

but maybe they create forms in order to be like,

Andrew Bustamante (3:21:54.520)

here, the humans will understand it.

Lex Fridman (3:21:58.280)

And this needs to be sufficiently different from humans

Andrew Bustamante (3:22:00.920)

to know that there's something weird.

Lex Fridman (3:22:02.840)

I don't know, I think it's actually

Andrew Bustamante (3:22:05.080)

an incredibly difficult problem of figuring out

Lex Fridman (3:22:07.360)

how to communicate with a thing way dumber than you.

Andrew Bustamante (3:22:11.920)

People assume if you're smart,

Lex Fridman (3:22:14.680)

it's easier to talk to the dumb thing.

Lex Fridman (3:22:16.840)

But I think it's actually extremely difficult

Lex Fridman (3:22:19.260)

when the gap in intelligence is just orders of magnitude.

Lex Fridman (3:22:23.740)

And so of course you can observe,

Lex Fridman (3:22:26.320)

but once you notice the thing is sufficiently interesting,

Lex Fridman (3:22:30.040)

how do you communicate with that thing?

Lex Fridman (3:22:32.160)

So this is where, one of the things

Andrew Bustamante (3:22:34.320)

I always try to highlight is how conspiracies are born.

Lex Fridman (3:22:38.720)

Because many people don't understand how easy it is

Andrew Bustamante (3:22:41.300)

to fall into the conspiratorial cycle.

Lex Fridman (3:22:44.360)

So the first step to a conspiracy being born

Andrew Bustamante (3:22:47.560)

is to have a piece of evidence that is true.

Lex Fridman (3:22:52.360)

And then immediately following the true evidence

Andrew Bustamante (3:22:55.360)

is a gap in information.

Lex Fridman (3:22:57.280)

And then to fill in the gap of information,

Andrew Bustamante (3:23:00.720)

people create an idea and then the next logical outcome

Lex Fridman (3:23:05.920)

is based on the idea that they just created,

Andrew Bustamante (3:23:08.080)

which is an idea that's based on something

Lex Fridman (3:23:10.260)

that was imagined in the first place.

Lex Fridman (3:23:12.480)

So the idea, the factual thing is now two steps away

Lex Fridman (3:23:15.520)

and then three steps away, four steps away

Andrew Bustamante (3:23:17.280)

as the things go on.

Lex Fridman (3:23:18.120)

And then all of a sudden you have this kernel of truth

Andrew Bustamante (3:23:20.340)

that turned into this wild conspiracy.

Lex Fridman (3:23:23.040)

So in our example, you talked about humans

Andrew Bustamante (3:23:26.100)

trying to communicate with ants.

Lex Fridman (3:23:27.360)

Ants are not intelligent.

Andrew Bustamante (3:23:28.880)

There's no, ants are not intelligent species.

Lex Fridman (3:23:30.840)

They're a drone species that's somehow commanded

Andrew Bustamante (3:23:33.860)

through whatever technology, whatever.

Lex Fridman (3:23:36.080)

Spoken like a typical human, but yes.

Lex Fridman (3:23:37.960)

Whatever biological thing is in the queen, right?

Lex Fridman (3:23:40.160)

But they're not, it's not a fair equivalent.

Lex Fridman (3:23:42.000)

But let's look at gorillas

Lex Fridman (3:23:43.160)

or let's look at something in the monkey family, right?

Andrew Bustamante (3:23:45.280)

Where largely we agree that there is some sort

Lex Fridman (3:23:48.500)

of intelligence there or dolphins,

Lex Fridman (3:23:50.080)

some sort of intelligence, right?

Lex Fridman (3:23:52.220)

It is a human thing, a human thing to want to observe

Lex Fridman (3:23:59.180)

and then communicate and integrate.

Lex Fridman (3:24:02.300)

That's a human thing, not an intelligent life thing.

Lex Fridman (3:24:06.660)

So for us to even think that a foreign

Lex Fridman (3:24:09.080)

and intelligent alien species would want to engage

Lex Fridman (3:24:12.260)

and communicate at all is an extremely human assumption.

Lex Fridman (3:24:16.940)

And then from that assumption,

Andrew Bustamante (3:24:18.220)

then we started going into all the other things you said.

Lex Fridman (3:24:20.220)

If they wanted to communicate,

Lex Fridman (3:24:21.780)

wouldn't they want to mimic?

Lex Fridman (3:24:23.040)

If they wanted to mimic,

Lex Fridman (3:24:24.140)

wouldn't they create devices like ours?

Lex Fridman (3:24:26.040)

So now we're three steps removed from the true fact

Andrew Bustamante (3:24:29.320)

of there's something unexplainable in the skies.

Lex Fridman (3:24:34.460)

Yeah, so the fact is there's something unexplainable

Andrew Bustamante (3:24:37.780)

in the skies and then we're filling in the gaps

Lex Fridman (3:24:40.380)

with all our basic human biases and assumptions.

Andrew Bustamante (3:24:43.300)

Exactly.

Lex Fridman (3:24:44.140)

But the thing is.

Andrew Bustamante (3:24:45.060)

Now we're getting right back to Project Northwood.

Lex Fridman (3:24:47.620)

We need some plan.

Andrew Bustamante (3:24:48.800)

I don't care how crazy the idea is, guys.

Lex Fridman (3:24:50.440)

Give me some plan.

Lex Fridman (3:24:51.540)

So that's where we come up with.

Lex Fridman (3:24:53.380)

Maybe it's an alien species trying to communicate

Andrew Bustamante (3:24:55.300)

or maybe it's an alien, a hostile threat

Lex Fridman (3:24:57.940)

that's trying to take over the world or who knows what.

Andrew Bustamante (3:25:00.980)

Maybe it's.

Lex Fridman (3:25:01.820)

But you have to somehow construct hypotheses

Lex Fridman (3:25:07.140)

and theories for anomalies.

Lex Fridman (3:25:10.100)

And then from that, amidst giant pile of the ridiculous,

Andrew Bustamante (3:25:16.580)

emerges perhaps a deeper truth over a period of decades.

Lex Fridman (3:25:21.100)

And at first, that truth is ridiculed

Lex Fridman (3:25:24.440)

and then it's accepted, that whole process.

Lex Fridman (3:25:29.260)

The Earth revolving around the sun?

Andrew Bustamante (3:25:30.780)

Yeah, the Earth revolving around the sun.

Lex Fridman (3:25:32.900)

But to me, it's interesting because it asks us

Andrew Bustamante (3:25:37.380)

looking out there with SETI, just looking for alien life,

Lex Fridman (3:25:41.940)

is forcing us to really ask questions about ourselves,

Andrew Bustamante (3:25:45.580)

about what is life, how special.

Lex Fridman (3:25:48.380)

First of all, what is intelligence?

Lex Fridman (3:25:49.980)

How special is intelligence in the cosmos?

Lex Fridman (3:25:52.460)

And I think it's inspiring and challenging

Andrew Bustamante (3:25:55.820)

to us as human beings,

Lex Fridman (3:25:57.420)

both on a scientific and engineering level,

Lex Fridman (3:26:00.320)

but also on a philosophical level.

Lex Fridman (3:26:01.860)

I mean, all of those questions that are laid before us

Andrew Bustamante (3:26:04.460)

when you start to think about alien life.

Lex Fridman (3:26:06.540)

So you interviewed Joe Rogan recently.

Andrew Bustamante (3:26:09.020)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (3:26:09.860)

And he said something that I thought was really,

Andrew Bustamante (3:26:12.380)

really brilliant during the podcast interview.

Lex Fridman (3:26:14.780)

He said that you.

Andrew Bustamante (3:26:15.620)

He's gonna love hearing that.

Lex Fridman (3:26:16.940)

But go ahead, sorry.

Lex Fridman (3:26:18.820)

But he said that he realized at some point

Lex Fridman (3:26:22.940)

that the turn in his opinion about UFOs happened

Andrew Bustamante (3:26:25.560)

when he realized how desperately he wanted it to be true.

Lex Fridman (3:26:30.420)

This is the human condition.

Andrew Bustamante (3:26:33.760)

We are pink matter works the same way

Lex Fridman (3:26:35.860)

as everybody's pink matter.

Lex Fridman (3:26:36.980)

And one of the ways that our pink matter works

Lex Fridman (3:26:38.540)

is with this thing, with what's known as a cognitive bias.

Andrew Bustamante (3:26:41.540)

It's a mental shortcut.

Lex Fridman (3:26:42.940)

Essentially, your brain doesn't want to process

Andrew Bustamante (3:26:45.180)

through facts over and over again.

Lex Fridman (3:26:46.660)

Instead, it wants to assume certain facts are in place

Lex Fridman (3:26:48.980)

and just jump right to the conclusion.

Lex Fridman (3:26:50.280)

It saves energy, it saves megabytes.

Lex Fridman (3:26:52.980)

So what Joe or Joe Rogan,

Lex Fridman (3:26:56.300)

I feel weird calling him Joe, I don't know him,

Lex Fridman (3:26:57.820)

but what Joe identified on his own.

Lex Fridman (3:26:59.660)

Mr. Rogan.

Lex Fridman (3:27:00.580)

What Mr. Rogan identified on his own.

Lex Fridman (3:27:03.340)

Yeah.

Andrew Bustamante (3:27:04.180)

Was his own cognitive loop.

Lex Fridman (3:27:06.900)

And then he immediately grew suspicious of that loop.

Andrew Bustamante (3:27:10.340)

That is a super powerful tool.

Lex Fridman (3:27:11.880)

That is something that most people

Andrew Bustamante (3:27:13.340)

never become self actualized enough to realize

Lex Fridman (3:27:15.620)

that they have a cognitive loop,

Andrew Bustamante (3:27:17.260)

let alone questioning their own cognitive loop.

Lex Fridman (3:27:20.160)

So that was, when it came to this topic specifically,

Andrew Bustamante (3:27:23.460)

that was just something that I thought was really powerful

Lex Fridman (3:27:25.900)

because you learn to not trust your own mind.

Andrew Bustamante (3:27:30.900)

Just for the record, after he drinks one whiskey,

Lex Fridman (3:27:34.620)

all that goes out.

Andrew Bustamante (3:27:36.420)

I think that was just in that moment in time, like, you know.

Lex Fridman (3:27:40.380)

A moment of brilliance.

Andrew Bustamante (3:27:41.740)

A moment of brilliance is, I think he still is, you know,

Lex Fridman (3:27:48.420)

he's definitely, one of the things that inspires me about Joe

Andrew Bustamante (3:27:50.860)

is how open minded he is, how curious he is.

Lex Fridman (3:27:53.420)

He refuses to let sort of the conformity

Lex Fridman (3:27:55.860)

and the conventions of any one community,

Lex Fridman (3:27:58.900)

including the scientific community,

Andrew Bustamante (3:28:00.620)

be a kind of thing that limits his curiosity,

Lex Fridman (3:28:04.220)

of asking what if, like the whole, it's entirely possible.

Andrew Bustamante (3:28:08.760)

I think that's a beautiful thing.

Lex Fridman (3:28:10.180)

And it actually represents what the best of science is,

Andrew Bustamante (3:28:13.700)

that childlike curiosity.

Lex Fridman (3:28:15.540)

But, so it's good to sort of balance those two things,

Lex Fridman (3:28:18.580)

but then you have to wake up to it, like,

Lex Fridman (3:28:21.220)

is this, is there a chance this is true,

Lex Fridman (3:28:24.420)

or do I just really want it to be true?

Lex Fridman (3:28:27.100)

And that.

Lex Fridman (3:28:27.940)

Like that hot girl that talks to you overseas?

Lex Fridman (3:28:29.820)

Yeah.

Andrew Bustamante (3:28:30.700)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (3:28:32.980)

For a brief moment.

Andrew Bustamante (3:28:35.020)

There's actually a deeper explanation for it

Lex Fridman (3:28:37.940)

that I'll tell you off the mic that perhaps

Andrew Bustamante (3:28:41.020)

a lot of people can kind of figure out.

Lex Fridman (3:28:42.940)

Anyway.

Andrew Bustamante (3:28:43.780)

Just to take it one step further,

Lex Fridman (3:28:44.860)

cause I love this stuff.

Andrew Bustamante (3:28:45.780)

Personally, I love pink matter stuff.

Lex Fridman (3:28:48.860)

In your interview with Jack Barsky,

Andrew Bustamante (3:28:50.060)

Jack's a good friend of mine, a good dude.

Lex Fridman (3:28:52.260)

An incredible person.

Andrew Bustamante (3:28:53.100)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (3:28:53.940)

In your conversation with Jack Barsky,

Andrew Bustamante (3:28:55.780)

you guys, he started talking to you about

Lex Fridman (3:28:58.500)

how his recruiters were feeding back to him his own beliefs,

Andrew Bustamante (3:29:02.700)

his own opinions about himself, how smart he was,

Lex Fridman (3:29:05.660)

how good he was, how uniquely qualified he was.

Andrew Bustamante (3:29:08.340)

That's all pink matter manipulation.

Lex Fridman (3:29:10.420)

Feeding right back to the person

Lex Fridman (3:29:12.380)

what they already think of themselves

Lex Fridman (3:29:14.100)

is a way to get them to invest and trust you faster

Andrew Bustamante (3:29:17.660)

because obviously you value them for all the right reasons

Lex Fridman (3:29:21.180)

because that's how they see themselves.

Lex Fridman (3:29:22.980)

So that loop that the KGB was using with Jack,

Lex Fridman (3:29:28.900)

Jack did not wake up to that loop at the time.

Andrew Bustamante (3:29:31.100)

He woke up to it later.

Lex Fridman (3:29:32.980)

So it happens to all of us.

Andrew Bustamante (3:29:35.180)

We're all in a loop.

Lex Fridman (3:29:37.220)

It's just whether it's about oat milk

Andrew Bustamante (3:29:39.620)

or whether it's about aliens

Lex Fridman (3:29:41.140)

or whether it's about the Democrats trying to take your guns,

Andrew Bustamante (3:29:44.740)

whatever it is, everybody's in a loop

Lex Fridman (3:29:47.020)

and we've got to wake up to ask ourselves,

Andrew Bustamante (3:29:49.060)

just like you said, is it true

Lex Fridman (3:29:51.500)

or do we just really want it to be true?

Lex Fridman (3:29:53.820)

And until you ask yourself that question,

Lex Fridman (3:29:55.700)

you're just one of the masses trapped in the loop.

Andrew Bustamante (3:29:58.220)

Yeah, that's the really, the Nietzsche gaze into the abyss.

Lex Fridman (3:30:03.540)

It's a dangerous thing.

Andrew Bustamante (3:30:05.020)

That's the path to insanity is to ask that question.

Lex Fridman (3:30:08.580)

You want to be doing it carefully,

Lex Fridman (3:30:10.980)

but it's also the place where you can truly discover

Lex Fridman (3:30:14.260)

something fundamental about this world

Andrew Bustamante (3:30:15.940)

that people don't understand

Lex Fridman (3:30:17.260)

and then that and lay the groundwork for progress,

Andrew Bustamante (3:30:21.820)

scientific, cultural, all that kind of stuff.

Lex Fridman (3:30:24.980)

Absolutely.

Lex Fridman (3:30:27.340)

What is one spy trick?

Lex Fridman (3:30:28.860)

This is from a Reddit that I really enjoy.

Andrew Bustamante (3:30:31.220)

What's one spy trick and you're full of a million spy tricks.

Lex Fridman (3:30:36.900)

People should follow you.

Andrew Bustamante (3:30:37.820)

You did an amazing podcast.

Lex Fridman (3:30:39.220)

You're just an amazing person.

Andrew Bustamante (3:30:40.460)

Thank you.

Lex Fridman (3:30:42.020)

What is the one spy trick you would teach everyone

Lex Fridman (3:30:45.060)

that they can use to improve their life instantly?

Lex Fridman (3:30:47.980)

Now you already mentioned quite a few,

Lex Fridman (3:30:50.820)

but what else could jump to mind?

Lex Fridman (3:30:54.140)

My go to answer for this has not really changed much

Andrew Bustamante (3:30:56.620)

over the last few years.

Lex Fridman (3:30:57.660)

So the first, the most important spy trick

Andrew Bustamante (3:31:00.020)

to change everything immediately

Lex Fridman (3:31:02.780)

is something called perception versus perspective.

Andrew Bustamante (3:31:06.220)

We all look at the world through our own perception.

Lex Fridman (3:31:10.300)

My dad used to tell me,

Andrew Bustamante (3:31:11.540)

my stepdad used to tell me that perception is reality.

Lex Fridman (3:31:13.740)

And I was arguing this with him when I was 14 years old.

Andrew Bustamante (3:31:17.460)

I told you so dad, you're still wrong.

Lex Fridman (3:31:20.580)

But perception is your interpretation

Andrew Bustamante (3:31:22.660)

of the world around you, but it's unique only to you.

Lex Fridman (3:31:26.340)

There's no advantage in your perception.

Andrew Bustamante (3:31:28.860)

That's why so many people find themselves

Lex Fridman (3:31:30.220)

arguing all the time,

Andrew Bustamante (3:31:31.540)

trying to convince other people of their own perception.

Lex Fridman (3:31:35.500)

The way that you win any argument,

Andrew Bustamante (3:31:37.820)

the way that you get ahead in your career,

Lex Fridman (3:31:39.820)

the way that you outsell or out race anybody

Andrew Bustamante (3:31:45.100)

is when you move off of perception

Lex Fridman (3:31:47.500)

and move into perspective.

Andrew Bustamante (3:31:49.660)

Perspective is the act or the art

Lex Fridman (3:31:52.340)

of observing the world from outside of yourself,

Andrew Bustamante (3:31:56.380)

whether that's outside of yourself as like an entity,

Lex Fridman (3:31:59.420)

just observing in a third from a different point of view,

Andrew Bustamante (3:32:02.420)

or even more powerful, you sit in the shoes,

Lex Fridman (3:32:05.140)

you sit in the seat of the person opposite you.

Lex Fridman (3:32:07.460)

And you think to yourself, what is their life like?

Lex Fridman (3:32:10.180)

What do they feel right now?

Lex Fridman (3:32:13.100)

Are they comfortable?

Lex Fridman (3:32:13.940)

Are they uncomfortable?

Lex Fridman (3:32:14.780)

Are they afraid?

Lex Fridman (3:32:15.620)

Are they scared?

Lex Fridman (3:32:16.460)

What's the stressor that they woke up to this morning?

Lex Fridman (3:32:18.700)

What's the stressor that they're gonna go to sleep

Lex Fridman (3:32:20.140)

with tonight?

Lex Fridman (3:32:21.660)

When you shift places and get out of your own perception

Lex Fridman (3:32:24.700)

and into someone else's perspective,

Lex Fridman (3:32:27.260)

now you're thinking like them,

Andrew Bustamante (3:32:29.220)

which is giving you an informational advantage.

Lex Fridman (3:32:31.620)

But you know what they're all doing?

Andrew Bustamante (3:32:33.300)

Everyone else out there is trapped in their own perception,

Lex Fridman (3:32:36.940)

not thinking about a different perspective.

Lex Fridman (3:32:39.340)

So immediately you have superior information,

Lex Fridman (3:32:42.540)

superior positioning,

Andrew Bustamante (3:32:44.060)

you have an advantage that they don't have.

Lex Fridman (3:32:46.220)

And if you do that to your boss,

Andrew Bustamante (3:32:48.780)

it's gonna change your career.

Lex Fridman (3:32:50.100)

If you do that to your spouse,

Andrew Bustamante (3:32:51.420)

it's gonna change your marriage.

Lex Fridman (3:32:52.540)

If you do that to your kids,

Andrew Bustamante (3:32:53.980)

it's gonna change your family legacy

Lex Fridman (3:32:55.780)

because nobody else out there is doing it.

Andrew Bustamante (3:32:58.100)

It's so interesting how difficult empathy is for people

Lex Fridman (3:33:01.940)

and how powerful it is,

Andrew Bustamante (3:33:03.780)

especially for, like you said,

Lex Fridman (3:33:05.700)

with spouse, like intimacy.

Andrew Bustamante (3:33:07.300)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (3:33:08.140)

Like stepping outside of yourself

Lex Fridman (3:33:10.060)

and really putting yourself in the shoes of the other person

Lex Fridman (3:33:12.660)

considering how they see the world.

Lex Fridman (3:33:14.300)

And that's, I really enjoy that

Lex Fridman (3:33:17.820)

because how does that exactly lead to connection?

Andrew Bustamante (3:33:21.940)

I think when you start to understand

Lex Fridman (3:33:26.620)

the way the other person sees the world,

Andrew Bustamante (3:33:30.020)

you start to enjoy the world through their eyes

Lex Fridman (3:33:32.260)

and you start to be able to share,

Andrew Bustamante (3:33:34.260)

in terms of intimacy,

Lex Fridman (3:33:35.700)

share the beauty that they see together

Andrew Bustamante (3:33:39.100)

because you understand their perspective.

Lex Fridman (3:33:41.060)

And somehow you converge as well.

Andrew Bustamante (3:33:43.740)

Of course, that allows you to gather information better

Lex Fridman (3:33:46.100)

and all that kind of stuff.

Lex Fridman (3:33:47.340)

And that allows you to work together better,

Lex Fridman (3:33:50.420)

to share in all different kinds of ways.

Lex Fridman (3:33:53.340)

But for intimacy, that's a really powerful thing.

Lex Fridman (3:33:55.780)

And also for, actually,

Andrew Bustamante (3:33:59.060)

like people you really disagree with

Lex Fridman (3:34:00.940)

or people on the internet you disagree with and so on,

Andrew Bustamante (3:34:03.180)

I find empathy is such a powerful way

Lex Fridman (3:34:07.420)

to resolve any tensions there.

Andrew Bustamante (3:34:09.740)

Even like people like trolls or all that kind of stuff,

Lex Fridman (3:34:12.500)

I don't deride them.

Andrew Bustamante (3:34:14.020)

I just kind of put myself in their shoes

Lex Fridman (3:34:15.980)

and it becomes like an enjoyable comradery with that person.

Lex Fridman (3:34:21.740)

So I wanna draw a pretty hard line

Lex Fridman (3:34:23.180)

between perspective and empathy.

Andrew Bustamante (3:34:26.660)

Because empathy is, frankly, an overused term

Lex Fridman (3:34:32.140)

by people who don't really know

Lex Fridman (3:34:33.740)

what they're saying sometimes.

Lex Fridman (3:34:34.980)

I think you know what you're saying,

Lex Fridman (3:34:35.940)

but the vast majority of people listening.

Lex Fridman (3:34:37.380)

I would argue that, but that's fine.

Andrew Bustamante (3:34:39.300)

As soon as you say empathy,

Lex Fridman (3:34:40.540)

they're gonna just be like,

Andrew Bustamante (3:34:41.380)

oh, yeah, I've heard this a thousand times.

Lex Fridman (3:34:44.460)

Empathy is about feeling what other people feel.

Andrew Bustamante (3:34:49.940)

Or understanding.

Lex Fridman (3:34:50.780)

It's more about feeling, would you say?

Andrew Bustamante (3:34:51.700)

Yeah, it's about feelings.

Lex Fridman (3:34:53.060)

It's about understanding someone else's feelings.

Andrew Bustamante (3:34:54.860)

Feeling, it's not the same as sympathy

Lex Fridman (3:34:58.060)

where you feel their feelings.

Andrew Bustamante (3:34:59.300)

Empathy is about recognizing that they have feelings

Lex Fridman (3:35:01.860)

and recognizing that their feelings are valid.

Andrew Bustamante (3:35:04.380)

Perspective is more than just feelings.

Lex Fridman (3:35:07.340)

It's about the brain.

Andrew Bustamante (3:35:09.820)

It's about the pink matter on the left side

Lex Fridman (3:35:12.540)

and the right side of the brain.

Andrew Bustamante (3:35:14.540)

Yes, I care about feelings,

Lex Fridman (3:35:16.460)

and this goes directly to your point about connection.

Andrew Bustamante (3:35:18.780)

Yes, I care about feelings,

Lex Fridman (3:35:20.260)

but I also care about objectives.

Lex Fridman (3:35:22.700)

What is your life, what is your aspirational goal?

Lex Fridman (3:35:25.700)

What was it like to grow up as you?

Lex Fridman (3:35:27.460)

What was it like to experience this

Lex Fridman (3:35:29.020)

and how did this shape your opinion on that?

Lex Fridman (3:35:30.820)

And what is it that you're going to do next?

Lex Fridman (3:35:35.700)

More than just feelings, actual tactical actions.

Lex Fridman (3:35:38.820)

And that becomes extremely valuable

Lex Fridman (3:35:41.100)

in the operational world

Andrew Bustamante (3:35:42.700)

because if you can get into someone's head,

Lex Fridman (3:35:45.060)

left brain and right brain, feelings and logic,

Andrew Bustamante (3:35:47.700)

you can start anticipating

Lex Fridman (3:35:48.700)

what actions they're gonna take next.

Andrew Bustamante (3:35:50.180)

You can direct the actions that they're going to take next

Lex Fridman (3:35:52.580)

because you're basically telling them the story

Andrew Bustamante (3:35:54.180)

that's in their own head.

Lex Fridman (3:35:55.980)

When it comes to relationships and personal connection,

Andrew Bustamante (3:35:58.700)

we talked about it earlier,

Lex Fridman (3:36:00.020)

the thing that people want the most is community.

Andrew Bustamante (3:36:05.620)

They want someone else who understands them.

Lex Fridman (3:36:08.140)

They want to be with people.

Andrew Bustamante (3:36:09.860)

They don't want to be alone.

Lex Fridman (3:36:11.780)

The more you practice perspective, empathy or no empathy,

Andrew Bustamante (3:36:15.780)

the more you just validate that a person is there.

Lex Fridman (3:36:19.220)

I am in this time and space with you in this moment.

Andrew Bustamante (3:36:22.380)

Feelings aside, that is powerful.

Lex Fridman (3:36:27.460)

That is intimate.

Lex Fridman (3:36:29.180)

And whether you're talking about lovers

Lex Fridman (3:36:31.020)

or whether you're talking about a business exchange

Andrew Bustamante (3:36:32.900)

or whether you're talking about collaborators in a crime,

Lex Fridman (3:36:35.900)

I'm here with you ride or die, let's do it.

Andrew Bustamante (3:36:39.220)

That's powerful.

Lex Fridman (3:36:41.060)

How much of what you've learned in your role at the CIA

Andrew Bustamante (3:36:46.460)

transfer over to relationships,

Lex Fridman (3:36:48.620)

the business relationship to other aspects of life?

Andrew Bustamante (3:36:51.420)

This is something you work closely with powerful people

Lex Fridman (3:36:53.940)

to help them out.

Lex Fridman (3:36:55.180)

What have you learned about the commonalities,

Lex Fridman (3:36:57.940)

about the problems that people face?

Andrew Bustamante (3:36:59.940)

Man, I would say about a solid 95% of what I learned

Lex Fridman (3:37:05.460)

at CIA carries over to the civilian world.

Andrew Bustamante (3:37:07.540)

That 5% that doesn't is,

Lex Fridman (3:37:10.460)

it would carry over in a disaster, right?

Andrew Bustamante (3:37:13.060)

There's knowing how to shoot on target

Lex Fridman (3:37:16.180)

with my non dominant hand really only has one purpose.

Lex Fridman (3:37:20.780)

It's not gonna happen day to day, right?

Lex Fridman (3:37:23.220)

Knowing how to do a dead drop that isn't discoverable

Andrew Bustamante (3:37:25.540)

by the local police force isn't gonna be useful right now,

Lex Fridman (3:37:28.540)

but it could be useful in disaster.

Lex Fridman (3:37:30.620)

But the 95% of stuff that's useful,

Lex Fridman (3:37:32.780)

it's all tied to the human condition.

Andrew Bustamante (3:37:34.540)

It's all tied to being able to

Lex Fridman (3:37:39.620)

understand what someone's thinking,

Andrew Bustamante (3:37:41.020)

understand what someone's feeling,

Lex Fridman (3:37:43.020)

direct their thoughts, direct their emotions,

Andrew Bustamante (3:37:45.500)

direct their thought process, win their attention,

Lex Fridman (3:37:47.980)

win their loyalty, win influence with them,

Andrew Bustamante (3:37:51.060)

grow your network, grow your own circle of influence.

Lex Fridman (3:37:54.860)

I mean, all of that is immensely, immensely valuable.

Andrew Bustamante (3:37:59.500)

As an example, the disguise,

Lex Fridman (3:38:00.860)

the disguise thing that we talked about earlier,

Andrew Bustamante (3:38:03.260)

disguise in and of itself has mixed utility.

Lex Fridman (3:38:06.580)

If you're Brad Pitt and you don't want anybody

Andrew Bustamante (3:38:08.020)

to know you're Brad Pitt, you put on a level one disguise

Lex Fridman (3:38:09.860)

and that's great.

Andrew Bustamante (3:38:10.700)

Or maybe you call me and I walk you through

Lex Fridman (3:38:12.340)

a level two disguise so that you can go to Aruba

Lex Fridman (3:38:14.380)

and nobody's gonna know you're in Aruba, right?

Lex Fridman (3:38:16.260)

Whatever it is.

Lex Fridman (3:38:18.780)

But even there with the 5%

Lex Fridman (3:38:20.980)

that doesn't apply to everyday life,

Andrew Bustamante (3:38:22.860)

there's still elements that do.

Lex Fridman (3:38:24.780)

For example, when a person looks at a human being's face,

Andrew Bustamante (3:38:28.780)

the first place they look is the same part of the face

Lex Fridman (3:38:32.260)

as if they were reading a piece of paper.

Lex Fridman (3:38:34.180)

So in English, we start from the top left

Lex Fridman (3:38:36.900)

and we read left to right, top to bottom.

Lex Fridman (3:38:38.740)

So when an English speaking person

Lex Fridman (3:38:40.860)

interacts with another person,

Andrew Bustamante (3:38:42.260)

the first thing they look at isn't their eyes.

Lex Fridman (3:38:45.500)

It's the upper left from their point of view,

Lex Fridman (3:38:49.220)

corner of their face, right?

Lex Fridman (3:38:52.060)

They look there and the information they get

Lex Fridman (3:38:54.780)

is hair color, hair pattern, skin color, right?

Lex Fridman (3:38:58.300)

That's it.

Andrew Bustamante (3:38:59.140)

Before they know anything else about the face.

Lex Fridman (3:39:01.020)

This is one of the reasons why somebody can look at you

Lex Fridman (3:39:02.740)

and then you ask them, what color are my eyes?

Lex Fridman (3:39:05.020)

I don't really remember.

Andrew Bustamante (3:39:06.380)

Because the way they read the face,

Lex Fridman (3:39:07.820)

they read it from left to right, top to bottom.

Lex Fridman (3:39:10.260)

So they're paying a lot of attention

Lex Fridman (3:39:11.580)

to the first few things they see

Lex Fridman (3:39:12.940)

and then they're paying less attention

Lex Fridman (3:39:14.140)

as they go down the face.

Andrew Bustamante (3:39:14.980)

The same scrolling behavior that you see

Lex Fridman (3:39:17.620)

on the internet, right?

Lex Fridman (3:39:18.940)

So when you understand that through the lens of disguise,

Lex Fridman (3:39:21.420)

it allows you to make a very powerful disguise.

Andrew Bustamante (3:39:23.260)

The most important part of your disguise

Lex Fridman (3:39:24.900)

is here if you're English speaking, right?

Andrew Bustamante (3:39:27.420)

Here if you're speaking some foreign languages

Lex Fridman (3:39:29.380)

that read right to left, right?

Andrew Bustamante (3:39:31.180)

If you're, if it's Chinese,

Lex Fridman (3:39:32.500)

you know that they're gonna look from here down

Andrew Bustamante (3:39:34.180)

because they read left down.

Lex Fridman (3:39:35.860)

So.

Lex Fridman (3:39:36.700)

So interesting.

Lex Fridman (3:39:37.540)

So yeah, knowing that really helps you

Andrew Bustamante (3:39:39.140)

sort of configure the things

Lex Fridman (3:39:40.460)

in terms of physical appearance.

Andrew Bustamante (3:39:41.740)

That's interesting.

Lex Fridman (3:39:42.580)

Correct, correct.

Lex Fridman (3:39:43.420)

So when it comes to how to make a disguise,

Lex Fridman (3:39:45.300)

not so useful to the ultra wealthy usually.

Lex Fridman (3:39:47.740)

But when it comes to how to read a face

Lex Fridman (3:39:50.060)

or more importantly, how people are going to read your face,

Andrew Bustamante (3:39:52.620)

that's extremely important because now you know

Lex Fridman (3:39:55.420)

where to find the first signs of deception

Andrew Bustamante (3:39:58.100)

in a baseline or anything else.

Lex Fridman (3:39:59.620)

You mentioned that the idea of having privacy

Andrew Bustamante (3:40:04.260)

is one that we kind of, we think we can,

Lex Fridman (3:40:10.300)

but we really don't.

Andrew Bustamante (3:40:12.060)

Is it possible for maybe somebody like me

Lex Fridman (3:40:14.980)

or a regular person to disappear from the grid?

Andrew Bustamante (3:40:18.060)

Absolutely.

Lex Fridman (3:40:18.900)

Yeah, and it's not as hard as you might think.

Andrew Bustamante (3:40:20.420)

It's not convenient.

Lex Fridman (3:40:21.660)

Again, convenience and security.

Lex Fridman (3:40:24.700)

You can disappear tomorrow, right?

Lex Fridman (3:40:26.460)

I can walk you through three steps right now

Andrew Bustamante (3:40:27.780)

that are gonna help you disappear tomorrow,

Lex Fridman (3:40:29.180)

but none of them are convenient.

Lex Fridman (3:40:31.300)

They're all extremely secure, right?

Lex Fridman (3:40:33.580)

The first thing you do is every piece

Andrew Bustamante (3:40:35.180)

of digital technology you have

Lex Fridman (3:40:36.860)

that is connected to you in any way is now dead.

Andrew Bustamante (3:40:41.220)

You just let the battery run out.

Lex Fridman (3:40:42.500)

Forever.

Andrew Bustamante (3:40:43.340)

Forever.

Lex Fridman (3:40:44.180)

You never touch it again, starting at this moment.

Lex Fridman (3:40:46.420)

What you have to do is go out and acquire a new one.

Lex Fridman (3:40:50.220)

Realistically, you will not be able to acquire a new one

Andrew Bustamante (3:40:52.900)

in the United States by buying it

Lex Fridman (3:40:55.660)

because to do so, you would tie it to your credit card.

Andrew Bustamante (3:40:58.700)

You would tie it to a location, a time, a place,

Lex Fridman (3:41:00.820)

a registered name, whatever else.

Lex Fridman (3:41:02.300)

So you would have to acquire it essentially by theft

Lex Fridman (3:41:05.780)

or through the black market.

Lex Fridman (3:41:07.460)

So you would want something

Lex Fridman (3:41:08.700)

because you're gonna need the advantage of technology

Andrew Bustamante (3:41:11.300)

without it being in your name.

Lex Fridman (3:41:13.060)

So you go out and you steal a phone or you steal a laptop.

Andrew Bustamante (3:41:16.420)

You do whatever you have to do to make sure

Lex Fridman (3:41:17.700)

that you can get on with the password

Lex Fridman (3:41:19.220)

and whatever else that might be.

Lex Fridman (3:41:20.540)

As dirty or as clean as you want that to be,

Andrew Bustamante (3:41:22.380)

we're all morally flexible here,

Lex Fridman (3:41:24.340)

but now you have a technological device

Andrew Bustamante (3:41:27.140)

that you can work with.

Lex Fridman (3:41:29.300)

And then from there on,

Andrew Bustamante (3:41:31.340)

you're just doing whatever you have to do,

Lex Fridman (3:41:32.660)

whether you're stealing every step of the way

Andrew Bustamante (3:41:35.060)

or whether you run a massive con.

Lex Fridman (3:41:38.700)

Keep in mind that we often talk about con men and cons.

Lex Fridman (3:41:42.300)

Do you know what the root,

Lex Fridman (3:41:43.500)

the word that con is a root word for?

Andrew Bustamante (3:41:46.500)

Confidence.

Lex Fridman (3:41:48.020)

That's what a con man is.

Andrew Bustamante (3:41:49.300)

A con man is a confidence man.

Lex Fridman (3:41:51.580)

Just somebody who is so brazenly confident

Andrew Bustamante (3:41:54.340)

that the people around them

Lex Fridman (3:41:55.780)

living in their own perception, not perspective,

Lex Fridman (3:41:58.620)

and their perception, they're like,

Lex Fridman (3:42:00.340)

well, this guy really knows what he's talking about,

Lex Fridman (3:42:01.980)

so I'm gonna do what he says.

Lex Fridman (3:42:04.020)

So you can run a massive con

Lex Fridman (3:42:05.580)

and that can take care of your finances,

Lex Fridman (3:42:07.220)

that can take care of your lodging,

Andrew Bustamante (3:42:08.500)

whatever else it is.

Lex Fridman (3:42:10.220)

You are whoever you present yourself to be.

Lex Fridman (3:42:13.860)

So if you wanna go be Bill for the afternoon,

Lex Fridman (3:42:18.300)

just go tell people your name is Bill.

Andrew Bustamante (3:42:19.820)

They're not gonna question you.

Lex Fridman (3:42:21.500)

So the intelligence,

Andrew Bustamante (3:42:24.060)

the natural web of intelligence gathering systems

Lex Fridman (3:42:28.740)

we have in the United States and in the world,

Lex Fridman (3:42:31.980)

are they going to believe for long that you're Bill?

Lex Fridman (3:42:37.020)

Are they?

Andrew Bustamante (3:42:37.860)

Until you do something that makes them think otherwise.

Lex Fridman (3:42:39.900)

If you are consistent,

Andrew Bustamante (3:42:41.040)

we talked about consistency being the superpower.

Lex Fridman (3:42:43.240)

If you are consistent, they will think you're Bill forever.

Lex Fridman (3:42:46.620)

How difficult is that to do?

Lex Fridman (3:42:49.020)

It's not convenient.

Andrew Bustamante (3:42:50.700)

It's quite difficult.

Lex Fridman (3:42:51.900)

Does that require training?

Andrew Bustamante (3:42:53.860)

It does require training.

Lex Fridman (3:42:55.780)

Because why do criminals always get caught?

Andrew Bustamante (3:42:57.780)

Because they stop being consistent.

Lex Fridman (3:42:59.960)

Criminals, I've...

Andrew Bustamante (3:43:04.900)

I never hesitate to admit this,

Lex Fridman (3:43:07.120)

but people tell me I should hesitate to admit it.

Lex Fridman (3:43:09.020)

So now I hesitate because of the guidance

Lex Fridman (3:43:11.660)

I've gotten to hesitate, right?

Andrew Bustamante (3:43:13.540)

I like criminals.

Lex Fridman (3:43:14.380)

I'm friends with a number of criminals

Andrew Bustamante (3:43:16.420)

because the only people who get me,

Lex Fridman (3:43:17.940)

like right away who get me, are criminals.

Andrew Bustamante (3:43:20.940)

Because we know what it's like

Lex Fridman (3:43:23.140)

to basically abandon all the rules,

Andrew Bustamante (3:43:25.360)

do our own thing our own way,

Lex Fridman (3:43:26.660)

and watch the world just keep turning.

Andrew Bustamante (3:43:29.080)

Most people are so stuck in the trap

Lex Fridman (3:43:33.900)

of normal thought and behavior

Andrew Bustamante (3:43:36.060)

that when I tell them, they just don't...

Lex Fridman (3:43:37.500)

Just go tell people your name is Bill.

Andrew Bustamante (3:43:39.240)

Most people are going to say,

Lex Fridman (3:43:40.340)

psh, that's not going to work.

Lex Fridman (3:43:42.540)

But a criminal will be like, oh yeah, I did that once.

Lex Fridman (3:43:44.680)

I just told everybody my name is Nancy,

Andrew Bustamante (3:43:46.340)

you know, dude, and they still believe me.

Lex Fridman (3:43:48.860)

Criminals just get it, right?

Lex Fridman (3:43:50.380)

So what happens with criminals

Lex Fridman (3:43:53.540)

is they go to the school of hard knocks.

Andrew Bustamante (3:43:56.380)

They go to...

Lex Fridman (3:43:57.220)

They learn criminal behavior on the job.

Andrew Bustamante (3:44:00.320)

Spies go to school.

Lex Fridman (3:44:02.640)

We go to the best spy school in the world.

Lex Fridman (3:44:05.020)

We go to Langley's, the farm, right?

Lex Fridman (3:44:07.860)

What's known as Field Tradecraft Course, FTC,

Andrew Bustamante (3:44:10.140)

in a covert location for a covert period of time

Lex Fridman (3:44:12.420)

and covert, covert, covert.

Lex Fridman (3:44:13.520)

So if anybody from CIA is watching,

Lex Fridman (3:44:14.600)

I'm not breaking any rules.

Andrew Bustamante (3:44:16.180)

It's all on Wikipedia, but it's not coming from me.

Lex Fridman (3:44:19.060)

But we do...

Andrew Bustamante (3:44:19.900)

That's how we do it.

Lex Fridman (3:44:20.740)

They train us from a hundred years of experience

Lex Fridman (3:44:24.840)

and the best ways to carry out covert operations,

Lex Fridman (3:44:27.060)

which are all just criminal activities overseas.

Andrew Bustamante (3:44:30.740)

We learn how to do it the right way

Lex Fridman (3:44:32.300)

so that we don't get caught.

Andrew Bustamante (3:44:33.300)

We learn how to be consistent.

Lex Fridman (3:44:34.420)

More importantly, we learn how to create an operation

Andrew Bustamante (3:44:37.660)

that has a limited lifespan

Lex Fridman (3:44:39.900)

because the longer it lives, the more at risk you are.

Lex Fridman (3:44:43.120)

So you want operations to be short, concise,

Lex Fridman (3:44:46.380)

on the X, off the X.

Andrew Bustamante (3:44:48.340)

Limit your room for mistakes.

Lex Fridman (3:44:49.740)

Criminals want the default

Andrew Bustamante (3:44:52.160)

to wanting these longterm operations

Lex Fridman (3:44:55.020)

because they don't want to have to recreate a new way

Andrew Bustamante (3:44:56.960)

to make money every 15 days.

Lex Fridman (3:45:00.500)

You mentioned, if anybody from the CIA is watching,

Lex Fridman (3:45:03.940)

so I've seen you talk about the fact

Lex Fridman (3:45:07.940)

that sort of people that are currently working at the CIA

Andrew Bustamante (3:45:10.380)

would kind of look down on the people who've left the CIA

Lex Fridman (3:45:14.380)

and they divide them, especially if you go public,

Andrew Bustamante (3:45:16.820)

especially if there's a book and all that kind of stuff.

Lex Fridman (3:45:19.880)

Do you feel the pressure of that to be quiet,

Andrew Bustamante (3:45:23.820)

to not do something like this conversation

Lex Fridman (3:45:30.600)

that we're doing today?

Andrew Bustamante (3:45:31.580)

I feel the silent judgment.

Lex Fridman (3:45:34.060)

That's very real.

Andrew Bustamante (3:45:35.380)

I feel it for myself and I feel it for my wife

Lex Fridman (3:45:36.940)

who doesn't appear on camera very often,

Lex Fridman (3:45:38.600)

but who's also former CIA.

Lex Fridman (3:45:40.820)

We both feel the judgment.

Andrew Bustamante (3:45:42.660)

We know that right now, three days after this is released,

Lex Fridman (3:45:47.540)

somebody's gonna send an email on a closed network system

Andrew Bustamante (3:45:50.340)

inside CIA headquarters and there's a bunch of people

Lex Fridman (3:45:52.900)

who are gonna laugh at it,

Andrew Bustamante (3:45:53.840)

a bunch of people who are gonna say that who knows what.

Lex Fridman (3:45:56.040)

It's not gonna be good stuff.

Andrew Bustamante (3:45:56.880)

A bunch of people you respect probably.

Lex Fridman (3:45:58.640)

A bunch of people who I'm trying to bring honor to.

Andrew Bustamante (3:46:01.980)

Whether I know them or respect them is irrelevant.

Lex Fridman (3:46:04.780)

These are people who are out there doing the deed every day

Lex Fridman (3:46:08.000)

and I wanna bring them honor and I wanna do that in a way

Lex Fridman (3:46:11.300)

that I get to share what they can't share

Lex Fridman (3:46:14.120)

and what they won't share when they leave

Lex Fridman (3:46:16.240)

because they will also feel the silent pressure,

Lex Fridman (3:46:18.440)

the pressure to the shame, the judgment, right?

Lex Fridman (3:46:22.740)

But the truth is that I've done this now long enough.

Andrew Bustamante (3:46:25.440)

The first few times that I spoke out publicly,

Lex Fridman (3:46:29.340)

the response to being a positive voice

Andrew Bustamante (3:46:32.160)

for what the sacrifice is that people are making,

Lex Fridman (3:46:34.960)

it's so refreshing to be an honest voice

Andrew Bustamante (3:46:39.020)

that people don't normally hear that it's too important.

Lex Fridman (3:46:43.120)

One day I'm gonna be gone

Lex Fridman (3:46:44.280)

and my kids are gonna look back on all this

Lex Fridman (3:46:46.340)

and they're gonna see their dad

Andrew Bustamante (3:46:48.360)

trying to do the right thing for the right reasons

Lex Fridman (3:46:51.000)

and even if my son or daughter ends up at CIA

Lex Fridman (3:46:53.480)

and even if they get ridiculed for being,

Lex Fridman (3:46:55.280)

oh, you're the Bustamante kid, right?

Andrew Bustamante (3:46:57.640)

Your dad's a total sellout, whatever it might be.

Lex Fridman (3:47:01.100)

Like I want them to know dad was doing what he could

Andrew Bustamante (3:47:04.700)

to bring honor to the organization

Lex Fridman (3:47:06.560)

even when he couldn't stay in the organization anymore.

Lex Fridman (3:47:09.480)

So you said when you were 27,

Lex Fridman (3:47:11.480)

I think you didn't know what the hell you're doing.

Lex Fridman (3:47:15.280)

So now that you're a few years older and wiser,

Lex Fridman (3:47:21.240)

let me ask you to put on your wise sage hat

Lex Fridman (3:47:24.840)

and give advice to other 27 year olds

Lex Fridman (3:47:27.480)

or even younger 17, 18 year olds

Andrew Bustamante (3:47:30.960)

that are just out of high school, maybe going to college,

Lex Fridman (3:47:34.200)

trying to figure out this life,

Andrew Bustamante (3:47:35.520)

this career thing that they're on.

Lex Fridman (3:47:37.640)

What advice would you give them

Andrew Bustamante (3:47:39.840)

about how to have a career

Lex Fridman (3:47:42.040)

or how to have a life they can be proud of?

Lex Fridman (3:47:45.800)

What's a powerful question, man?

Lex Fridman (3:47:49.600)

Have you figured it out yet yourself?

Andrew Bustamante (3:47:51.160)

No, I think I'm a grand total of seven days smarter

Lex Fridman (3:47:55.160)

than I was at 27.

Andrew Bustamante (3:47:57.120)

It's not a good average.

Lex Fridman (3:47:57.960)

Progress.

Andrew Bustamante (3:48:00.240)

There's still time.

Lex Fridman (3:48:01.080)

There's still time.

Lex Fridman (3:48:02.680)

So for all the young people out there deciding what to do,

Lex Fridman (3:48:08.480)

I would just say the same thing that I do say

Lex Fridman (3:48:10.720)

and I will say to my own kids.

Lex Fridman (3:48:12.400)

You only have one life.

Andrew Bustamante (3:48:14.360)

You only have one chance.

Lex Fridman (3:48:16.600)

If you spend it doing what other people expect you to do,

Andrew Bustamante (3:48:21.240)

you will wake up to your regret at some point.

Lex Fridman (3:48:25.400)

I woke up when I was 38 years old.

Andrew Bustamante (3:48:29.200)

My wife in many ways is still waking up to it

Lex Fridman (3:48:32.000)

as she watches her grandparents pass

Lex Fridman (3:48:34.760)

and an older generation pass away.

Lex Fridman (3:48:38.480)

The folks that really have a blessed life

Andrew Bustamante (3:48:42.880)

are the people who learn early on

Lex Fridman (3:48:45.160)

to live with their own rules, live their own way

Lex Fridman (3:48:50.120)

and live every day as if it's the last day.

Lex Fridman (3:48:53.720)

Not necessarily to waste it by being wasteful or silly,

Lex Fridman (3:48:58.080)

but to recognize that today is a day

Lex Fridman (3:49:00.000)

to be productive and constructive for yourself.

Andrew Bustamante (3:49:04.560)

If you don't want a career,

Lex Fridman (3:49:06.100)

today's not the day to start pursuing a career

Andrew Bustamante (3:49:07.840)

just because someone else told you to do it.

Lex Fridman (3:49:09.680)

If you wanna learn a language,

Andrew Bustamante (3:49:11.160)

today's a day to find a way to buy a ticket

Lex Fridman (3:49:13.720)

to another country and learn through immersion.

Andrew Bustamante (3:49:15.680)

If you want a date, if you wanna get married,

Lex Fridman (3:49:17.920)

if you want a business,

Andrew Bustamante (3:49:19.800)

today is the day to just go out

Lex Fridman (3:49:21.520)

and take one step in that direction.

Lex Fridman (3:49:25.200)

And as long as you, every day you just make one new step,

Lex Fridman (3:49:28.600)

just like CIA recruited me, just do the next thing.

Andrew Bustamante (3:49:32.120)

If the step seems like it's too big,

Lex Fridman (3:49:34.520)

then there's probably two other steps

Andrew Bustamante (3:49:36.100)

that you can do before that.

Lex Fridman (3:49:37.680)

Just make constant progress, build momentum,

Andrew Bustamante (3:49:40.440)

move forward and live on your own terms.

Lex Fridman (3:49:43.960)

That way you don't ever wake up to the regret.

Lex Fridman (3:49:47.040)

And it'll be over before you know it.

Lex Fridman (3:49:50.000)

Whether you regret it or not, it's true.

Lex Fridman (3:49:52.960)

What do you think is the meaning of this whole thing?

Lex Fridman (3:49:55.540)

What's the meaning of life?

Andrew Bustamante (3:49:56.720)

Self respect, that's a fast answer.

Lex Fridman (3:50:00.240)

There's a story behind it if you want the story.

Andrew Bustamante (3:50:01.960)

I would love to have the story.

Lex Fridman (3:50:03.720)

There's a covert training base in Alabama in the south,

Andrew Bustamante (3:50:08.080)

far south and like the armpit of America

Lex Fridman (3:50:10.200)

where elite tier one operators

Andrew Bustamante (3:50:12.560)

go to learn human intelligence stuff.

Lex Fridman (3:50:16.100)

And there's a bar inside this base.

Lex Fridman (3:50:18.960)

And on the wall is just, it's scribbles of opinions.

Lex Fridman (3:50:23.960)

And the question in the middle of the wall

Lex Fridman (3:50:25.640)

says what's the meaning of life?

Lex Fridman (3:50:27.400)

And all these elite operators over the last 25 or 30 years,

Andrew Bustamante (3:50:31.080)

they all go, they get drunk and they scribble their answer

Lex Fridman (3:50:33.560)

and they circle it with a Sharpie, right?

Andrew Bustamante (3:50:35.200)

Love, family, America, freedom, right, whatever.

Lex Fridman (3:50:40.440)

And then the only thing they have to do

Andrew Bustamante (3:50:41.560)

is if they're gonna write something on there,

Lex Fridman (3:50:43.080)

they have to connect it with something else on the wall,

Andrew Bustamante (3:50:46.040)

at least one other thing.

Lex Fridman (3:50:47.040)

So if they write love, they can't just leave it

Andrew Bustamante (3:50:48.840)

floating there, they have to write love in a little bubble

Lex Fridman (3:50:51.560)

and connect it to something else, connect it to family,

Andrew Bustamante (3:50:53.960)

whatever else.

Lex Fridman (3:50:54.800)

When you look at that wall,

Andrew Bustamante (3:50:58.080)

the word self respect is on the wall

Lex Fridman (3:51:00.600)

and it's got a circle around it.

Lex Fridman (3:51:02.400)

And then you can't see any other word

Lex Fridman (3:51:04.600)

because of all the things that connect to self respect.

Andrew Bustamante (3:51:08.720)

Just dozens of people have written over,

Lex Fridman (3:51:11.920)

have written their words down and been drawn

Lex Fridman (3:51:14.040)

and scribbled over because of all the lines

Lex Fridman (3:51:15.880)

that connect to self respect.

Lex Fridman (3:51:17.200)

So what's the meaning of life?

Lex Fridman (3:51:18.920)

From my point of view,

Andrew Bustamante (3:51:19.760)

I've never seen a better answer.

Lex Fridman (3:51:22.200)

It's all self respect.

Lex Fridman (3:51:23.040)

If you don't respect yourself, how can you do anything else?

Lex Fridman (3:51:25.440)

How can you love someone else

Lex Fridman (3:51:26.280)

if you don't have self respect?

Lex Fridman (3:51:27.680)

How can you build a business you're proud of

Lex Fridman (3:51:28.840)

if you don't have self respect?

Lex Fridman (3:51:29.880)

How can you raise kids?

Lex Fridman (3:51:31.120)

How can you make a difference?

Lex Fridman (3:51:32.280)

How can you pioneer anything?

Lex Fridman (3:51:33.880)

How can you just wake up and have a good day

Lex Fridman (3:51:37.080)

if you don't have self respect?

Andrew Bustamante (3:51:40.840)

The power of the individual,

Lex Fridman (3:51:42.240)

that's what makes this country great.

Andrew Bustamante (3:51:46.360)

I have to say, after I was born,

Lex Fridman (3:51:49.000)

I have to say after traveling quite a bit in Europe

Lex Fridman (3:51:52.200)

and especially in a place of war,

Lex Fridman (3:51:55.720)

coming back to the United States

Andrew Bustamante (3:51:57.080)

makes me really appreciate

Lex Fridman (3:51:58.400)

about the better angels of this nation,

Andrew Bustamante (3:52:02.280)

the ideals it stands for, the values it stands for.

Lex Fridman (3:52:04.960)

And I'd like to thank you for serving this nation for time

Lex Fridman (3:52:10.040)

and humanity for time

Lex Fridman (3:52:12.640)

and for being brave enough and bold enough

Andrew Bustamante (3:52:16.800)

to still talk about it and to inspire others,

Lex Fridman (3:52:19.480)

to educate others for having many amazing conversations

Lex Fridman (3:52:25.120)

and for honoring me by having this conversation today.

Lex Fridman (3:52:28.480)

You're an amazing human.

Andrew Bustamante (3:52:30.080)

Thanks so much for talking today.

Lex Fridman (3:52:31.360)

Lex, I appreciate the invite, man.

Andrew Bustamante (3:52:32.760)

It was a joy.

Lex Fridman (3:52:34.600)

Thanks for listening to this conversation

Andrew Bustamante (3:52:36.240)

with Andrew Bustamante.

Lex Fridman (3:52:38.000)

To support this podcast,

Andrew Bustamante (3:52:39.160)

please check out our sponsors in the description.

Lex Fridman (3:52:41.680)

And now let me leave you with some words

Andrew Bustamante (3:52:44.120)

from Sun Tzu in The Art of War.

Lex Fridman (3:52:47.920)

Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night.

Lex Fridman (3:52:52.160)

And when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.

Lex Fridman (3:52:55.400)

Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.

Andrew Bustamante (40:00.140)

There is something about Ukraine,

Lex Fridman (40:02.100)

the deep support by the Ukrainian people of America

Andrew Bustamante (40:05.500)

that is in contrast with, for example, Afghanistan,

Lex Fridman (40:10.860)

that it seems like ideologically,

Andrew Bustamante (40:14.100)

Ukraine could be a beacon of freedom

Lex Fridman (40:17.180)

used in narratives by the United States

Andrew Bustamante (40:20.180)

to fight geopolitical wars in that part of the world,

Lex Fridman (40:24.180)

that they would be a good partner

Andrew Bustamante (40:26.100)

for this idea of democracy, of freedom,

Lex Fridman (40:28.940)

of all the values that America stands for.

Andrew Bustamante (40:31.500)

They're a good partner.

Lex Fridman (40:32.780)

And so it's valuable,

Andrew Bustamante (40:35.100)

if you sort of have a cynical, pragmatic view,

Lex Fridman (40:38.740)

sort of like Henry Kissinger type of view,

Andrew Bustamante (40:41.500)

it's valuable to have them as a partner,

Lex Fridman (40:43.900)

so valuable that it makes sense to support them

Andrew Bustamante (40:47.380)

in achieving a negotiated ceasefire

Lex Fridman (40:50.100)

that's on the side of Ukraine.

Lex Fridman (40:51.980)

But because of this particular leader,

Lex Fridman (40:54.420)

this particular culture,

Andrew Bustamante (40:56.220)

this particular dynamics of how the war unrolled

Lex Fridman (41:00.540)

and things like Twitter

Lex Fridman (41:02.580)

and the way digital communication currently works,

Lex Fridman (41:05.100)

it just seems like this is a powerful symbol of freedom

Andrew Bustamante (41:08.060)

that's useful for the United States

Lex Fridman (41:09.900)

if we're sort of to take the pragmatic view.

Andrew Bustamante (41:12.660)

Don't you think it's possible

Lex Fridman (41:16.460)

that United States supports Ukraine

Andrew Bustamante (41:20.500)

financially, militarily enough

Lex Fridman (41:22.660)

for it to get an advantage in this war?

Andrew Bustamante (41:25.220)

I think they've already gotten advantage in the war.

Lex Fridman (41:27.340)

The fact that the war is still going on

Andrew Bustamante (41:28.820)

demonstrates the asymmetrical advantage.

Lex Fridman (41:30.820)

The fact that Russia has stepped up

Andrew Bustamante (41:33.420)

to the negotiating table with them several times

Lex Fridman (41:36.460)

without just turning to Chechen,

Andrew Bustamante (41:41.180)

I mean, you remember what happened in Chechnya,

Lex Fridman (41:43.180)

without turning to Chechnya level,

Andrew Bustamante (41:45.060)

just mass blind destruction,

Lex Fridman (41:48.540)

which was another Putin war.

Andrew Bustamante (41:51.540)

To see that those things have happened

Lex Fridman (41:53.180)

demonstrates the asymmetric advantage

Andrew Bustamante (41:54.860)

that the West has given.

Lex Fridman (41:56.140)

I think the true way to look at the benefit of Ukraine

Andrew Bustamante (42:01.820)

as a shining example of freedom in Europe for the West

Lex Fridman (42:06.740)

isn't to understand whether or not they could.

Andrew Bustamante (42:08.980)

They absolutely could.

Lex Fridman (42:10.620)

It's the question of how valuable is that in Europe?

Lex Fridman (42:14.940)

How valuable is Ukraine?

Lex Fridman (42:16.740)

Which before February, nobody even thought about Ukraine.

Lex Fridman (42:22.380)

And the people who did know about Ukraine

Lex Fridman (42:24.380)

knew that it was an extremely corrupt former Soviet state

Andrew Bustamante (42:28.900)

with 20% of its national population

Lex Fridman (42:30.940)

self identifying as Russian.

Andrew Bustamante (42:33.660)

There's a reason Putin went into Ukraine.

Lex Fridman (42:35.460)

There's a reason he's been promising

Andrew Bustamante (42:37.020)

he would go into Ukraine for the better part of a decade.

Lex Fridman (42:40.540)

Because the circumstances were aligned,

Andrew Bustamante (42:43.660)

it was a corrupt country that self identified

Lex Fridman (42:45.580)

as Russian in many ways.

Andrew Bustamante (42:47.420)

It was supposed to be an easier of multiple marks

Lex Fridman (42:51.980)

in terms of the former Soviet satellite states to go after.

Andrew Bustamante (42:55.900)

That's all part of the miscalculation

Lex Fridman (42:57.940)

that the rest of the world saw too

Andrew Bustamante (42:59.860)

when we thought it would fall quickly.

Lex Fridman (43:02.860)

So to think that it could be a shining example of freedom

Andrew Bustamante (43:05.900)

is accurate.

Lex Fridman (43:06.980)

But is it as shining a star as Germany?

Lex Fridman (43:10.220)

Is it as shining a star as the UK?

Lex Fridman (43:11.940)

Is it as shining a star as Romania?

Lex Fridman (43:13.940)

Is it as shiny a star as France?

Lex Fridman (43:17.860)

It's got a lot of democratic freedom based countries

Andrew Bustamante (43:22.380)

in Europe to compete against

Lex Fridman (43:23.660)

to be the shining stellar example.

Lex Fridman (43:26.780)

And in exchange, on counterpoint to that,

Lex Fridman (43:29.900)

it has an extreme amount of strategic value to Russia

Andrew Bustamante (43:33.540)

which has no interest in making it a shining star

Lex Fridman (43:36.060)

of the example of democracy and freedom.

Andrew Bustamante (43:38.460)

Outside of research in terms of the shininess of the star,

Lex Fridman (43:41.700)

I would argue yes.

Andrew Bustamante (43:43.060)

If you look at how much it captivated

Lex Fridman (43:45.140)

the attention of the world.

Andrew Bustamante (43:46.460)

The attention of the world

Lex Fridman (43:47.300)

has made no material difference, man.

Andrew Bustamante (43:49.020)

That's what I'm saying.

Lex Fridman (43:50.300)

That's your estimation, but are you sure we can,

Andrew Bustamante (43:53.580)

we can't, if you can convert that into political influence

Lex Fridman (43:59.060)

into money, don't you think attention is money?

Andrew Bustamante (44:03.500)

Attention is money in democracies and capitalist countries.

Lex Fridman (44:07.500)

Yes.

Andrew Bustamante (44:08.340)

Which serves as a counterweight

Lex Fridman (44:09.460)

to sort of authoritarian regimes.

Lex Fridman (44:11.420)

So for Putin, resources matter.

Lex Fridman (44:14.460)

For the United States, also resources matter,

Lex Fridman (44:16.500)

but the attention and the belief of the people also matter

Lex Fridman (44:21.220)

because that's how you attain and maintain political power.

Lex Fridman (44:24.660)

So going to that exact example,

Lex Fridman (44:26.940)

then I would highlight that our current administration

Andrew Bustamante (44:29.340)

has the lowest approval ratings of any president in history.

Lex Fridman (44:33.620)

So if people were very fond of the war going on in Ukraine,

Andrew Bustamante (44:36.740)

wouldn't that counterbalance some of our upset,

Lex Fridman (44:39.220)

some of the dissent coming from the economy

Lex Fridman (44:41.980)

and some of the dissent coming from the great recession

Lex Fridman (44:45.780)

or the second great, or the great resignation

Lex Fridman (44:48.620)

and whatever's happening with the draw

Lex Fridman (44:49.980)

with the down stock market?

Andrew Bustamante (44:51.380)

You would think that people would feel

Lex Fridman (44:52.540)

like they're sacrificing for something

Andrew Bustamante (44:54.620)

if they really believed that Ukraine mattered,

Lex Fridman (44:57.940)

that they would stand next to the president

Andrew Bustamante (45:00.300)

who is so staunchly driving and leading the West

Lex Fridman (45:05.060)

against this conflict.

Andrew Bustamante (45:06.780)

Well, I think the opposition to this particular president,

Lex Fridman (45:09.780)

I personally believe has less to do with the policies

Lex Fridman (45:12.660)

and more to do with a lot of the other human factors.

Lex Fridman (45:19.220)

But again, empirically, this is,

Andrew Bustamante (45:20.860)

I look at things through a very empirical lens,

Lex Fridman (45:22.980)

a very cold fact based lens.

Lex Fridman (45:26.900)

And there are multiple data points that suggest

Lex Fridman (45:29.500)

that the American people ideologically sympathize

Andrew Bustamante (45:32.420)

with Ukraine, but they really just want

Lex Fridman (45:34.420)

their gas prices to go down.

Andrew Bustamante (45:36.020)

They really just want to be able to pay less money

Lex Fridman (45:38.180)

at the grocery store for their food.

Lex Fridman (45:39.940)

And they most definitely don't want their sons

Lex Fridman (45:41.700)

and daughters to die in exchange for Ukrainian freedom.

Andrew Bustamante (45:46.100)

It does hurt me to see the politicization

Lex Fridman (45:47.900)

of this war as well.

Andrew Bustamante (45:50.340)

I think that maybe has to do with the kind of calculation

Lex Fridman (45:54.940)

you're referring to, but it seems like it doesn't.

Andrew Bustamante (45:58.700)

It seems like there's a cynical,

Lex Fridman (46:00.660)

whatever takes attention of the media for the moment,

Andrew Bustamante (46:05.180)

the red team chooses one side

Lex Fridman (46:07.100)

and the blue team chooses another.

Lex Fridman (46:08.940)

And then I think, correct me if I'm wrong,

Lex Fridman (46:12.260)

but I believe the Democrats went into full support

Andrew Bustamante (46:17.380)

of Ukraine on the ideological side.

Lex Fridman (46:20.100)

And then I guess Republicans are saying,

Lex Fridman (46:22.180)

why are we wasting money?

Lex Fridman (46:23.220)

The gas prices are going up.

Andrew Bustamante (46:25.860)

That's a very crude kind of analysis,

Lex Fridman (46:27.660)

but they basically picked whatever argument

Andrew Bustamante (46:29.740)

on whatever side, and now more and more and more,

Lex Fridman (46:33.660)

this particular war in Ukraine is becoming

Andrew Bustamante (46:37.260)

a kind of pawn in the game of politics

Lex Fridman (46:40.060)

that's first the midterm elections,

Andrew Bustamante (46:42.700)

then building up towards the presidential elections,

Lex Fridman (46:44.900)

and stops being about the philosophical, the social,

Andrew Bustamante (46:49.940)

the geopolitical aspects, parameters of this war,

Lex Fridman (46:53.780)

and more about just like whatever the heck

Andrew Bustamante (46:55.900)

captivates Twitter, and we're gonna use that for politics.

Lex Fridman (46:58.900)

You're right in the sense of the fact that it's,

Andrew Bustamante (47:02.340)

I wouldn't say that the red team and the blue team

Lex Fridman (47:03.940)

picked opposite sides on this.

Lex Fridman (47:05.300)

What I would say is that media discovered

Lex Fridman (47:08.860)

that talking about Ukraine wasn't as profitable

Andrew Bustamante (47:12.300)

as talking about something else.

Lex Fridman (47:13.980)

People simply, the American people who read media

Andrew Bustamante (47:17.580)

or who watch media, they simply became bored

Lex Fridman (47:20.820)

reading about news that didn't seem to be changing much.

Lex Fridman (47:23.940)

And we turned back into wanting to read

Lex Fridman (47:26.540)

about our own economy, and we wanted to hear more

Andrew Bustamante (47:28.460)

about cryptocurrency, and we wanted to hear more

Lex Fridman (47:30.060)

about the Kardashians, and that's what we care about,

Lex Fridman (47:32.380)

so that's what media writes about.

Lex Fridman (47:33.820)

That's how a capitalist market driven world works,

Lex Fridman (47:37.380)

and that's how the United States works.

Lex Fridman (47:38.380)

That's why in both red papers and blue papers,

Andrew Bustamante (47:41.100)

red sources and blue sources,

Lex Fridman (47:42.700)

you don't see Ukraine being mentioned very much.

Andrew Bustamante (47:44.620)

If anything, I would say that your Republicans

Lex Fridman (47:47.180)

are probably more in support of what's happening

Andrew Bustamante (47:49.340)

in Ukraine right now, because we're creating

Lex Fridman (47:51.340)

new weapon systems, our military is getting stronger,

Andrew Bustamante (47:53.660)

we're sending these, we get to test military systems

Lex Fridman (47:57.660)

in combat in Ukraine, that's priceless.

Andrew Bustamante (48:02.060)

In the world of the military industrial complex,

Lex Fridman (48:05.340)

being able to field test, combat test a weapon

Andrew Bustamante (48:10.020)

without having to sacrifice your own people

Lex Fridman (48:12.500)

is incredibly valuable.

Andrew Bustamante (48:13.660)

You get all the data, you get all the performance metrics,

Lex Fridman (48:15.740)

but you don't have to put yourself at risk.

Andrew Bustamante (48:17.540)

That is one of the major benefits of what we're seeing

Lex Fridman (48:21.100)

from supporting Ukraine with weapons and with troops.

Andrew Bustamante (48:23.700)

The longterm benefit to what will come of this

Lex Fridman (48:26.540)

for the United States, practically speaking,

Andrew Bustamante (48:30.780)

in the lens of national security,

Lex Fridman (48:32.740)

through military readiness,

Andrew Bustamante (48:34.420)

through future economic benefits, those are super strong.

Lex Fridman (48:38.540)

The geopolitical fight is essentially moot,

Andrew Bustamante (48:42.180)

because Ukraine is not a geopolitical player.

Lex Fridman (48:45.100)

It was not for 70 years, and after this conflict is over,

Andrew Bustamante (48:50.220)

it will not again.

Lex Fridman (48:51.420)

Just think about what you were just saying

Andrew Bustamante (48:53.260)

with the American people's attention span

Lex Fridman (48:55.500)

to Twitter and whatever's currently going on.

Andrew Bustamante (48:57.300)

If the Ukraine conflict resolved itself today

Lex Fridman (49:00.500)

in any direction, how many weeks do you think

Lex Fridman (49:04.460)

before no one talked about Ukraine anymore?

Lex Fridman (49:06.260)

Do you think we would make it two weeks?

Lex Fridman (49:07.780)

Or do you think we'd make it maybe seven days?

Lex Fridman (49:09.540)

It would be headline news for one or two days,

Lex Fridman (49:13.140)

and then we'd be onto something else.

Lex Fridman (49:15.020)

It's just an unfortunate reality

Andrew Bustamante (49:17.700)

of how the world works in a capitalist democracy.

Lex Fridman (49:21.980)

Yeah, it just breaks my heart how much,

Andrew Bustamante (49:27.540)

you know, I know that there's Yemen and Syria

Lex Fridman (49:30.740)

and that nobody talks about anymore.

Andrew Bustamante (49:33.740)

Still raging conflicts going on.

Lex Fridman (49:37.460)

It breaks my heart how much generational hatred is born.

Andrew Bustamante (49:42.300)

I happen to be from, my family is from Ukraine

Lex Fridman (49:46.820)

and from Russia, and so for me, just personally,

Andrew Bustamante (49:49.580)

it's a part of the world I care about.

Lex Fridman (49:51.860)

In terms of its history, because I speak the language,

Andrew Bustamante (49:56.940)

I can appreciate the beauty of the literature,

Lex Fridman (49:58.940)

the music, the art, the cultural history

Andrew Bustamante (50:01.420)

of the 20th century through all the dark times,

Lex Fridman (50:04.560)

through all the hell of the dark sides

Andrew Bustamante (50:09.000)

of authoritarian regimes, the destruction of war.

Lex Fridman (50:12.260)

There's still just the beauty that I'm able to appreciate

Andrew Bustamante (50:14.420)

that I can't appreciate about China, Brazil,

Lex Fridman (50:17.700)

other countries because I don't speak their language.

Andrew Bustamante (50:19.700)

This one I can appreciate.

Lex Fridman (50:20.900)

And so in that way, this is personally really painful to me

Andrew Bustamante (50:24.460)

to see so much of that history, the beauty in that history

Lex Fridman (50:28.520)

suffocated by the hatred that is born

Andrew Bustamante (50:31.020)

through this kind of geopolitical game

Lex Fridman (50:36.240)

fought mostly by the politicians, the leaders.

Andrew Bustamante (50:39.980)

People are beautiful, and that's what you're talking about.

Lex Fridman (50:42.840)

People are just, people are beautiful creatures.

Andrew Bustamante (50:47.220)

Culture and art and science,

Lex Fridman (50:52.160)

these are beautiful, beautiful things

Andrew Bustamante (50:53.700)

that come about because of human beings.

Lex Fridman (50:55.900)

And the thing that gives me hope is that

Andrew Bustamante (51:00.260)

no matter what conflict the world has seen,

Lex Fridman (51:02.600)

and we've seen some devastating,

Andrew Bustamante (51:04.540)

horrible crimes against humanity already.

Lex Fridman (51:07.360)

We saw nuclear bombs go off in Japan.

Andrew Bustamante (51:10.060)

We saw genocide happen in Rwanda.

Lex Fridman (51:13.780)

We've seen horrible things happen.

Lex Fridman (51:16.300)

But people persevere.

Lex Fridman (51:18.260)

Language, culture, arts, science, they all persevere.

Andrew Bustamante (51:21.420)

They all shine through.

Lex Fridman (51:23.600)

Some of the most, people don't even realize

Lex Fridman (51:25.420)

how gorgeous the architecture and the culture is

Lex Fridman (51:27.940)

inside Iran.

Andrew Bustamante (51:29.060)

People have no idea.

Lex Fridman (51:31.600)

Chinese people in the rural parts of China

Andrew Bustamante (51:35.820)

are some of the kindest, most amazing people

Lex Fridman (51:38.360)

you'll ever meet.

Lex Fridman (51:39.580)

And Korean art and Korean dance, Korean drumming,

Lex Fridman (51:44.580)

I know nobody has ever even heard of Korean drumming.

Andrew Bustamante (51:47.300)

Korean drumming is this magical, beautiful thing.

Lex Fridman (51:50.380)

And the North, in North Korea, does it better

Andrew Bustamante (51:53.020)

than anybody in the world.

Lex Fridman (51:54.460)

Taekwondo in North Korea is just exceptional to watch.

Lex Fridman (51:57.780)

In North Korea?

Lex Fridman (51:58.620)

In North Korea.

Andrew Bustamante (51:59.500)

Nobody knows these things.

Lex Fridman (52:00.340)

How do you know about Taekwondo in North Korea?

Andrew Bustamante (52:02.380)

I have questions.

Lex Fridman (52:04.660)

That's fascinating.

Andrew Bustamante (52:05.500)

That's, people don't think about that,

Lex Fridman (52:08.180)

but the culture, the beauty of the people

Andrew Bustamante (52:09.820)

still flourishes even in the toughest of places.

Lex Fridman (52:11.860)

Absolutely, and we always will.

Andrew Bustamante (52:13.700)

We always will because that is what people do.

Lex Fridman (52:16.340)

And that is just the truth of it.

Lex Fridman (52:18.500)

And it breaks my heart to see travesties

Lex Fridman (52:21.140)

that people commit against people.

Lex Fridman (52:23.860)

But whether you're looking at a micro level,

Lex Fridman (52:26.460)

like what happens with shootings here in the United States,

Andrew Bustamante (52:30.100)

or whether you look at a macro level,

Lex Fridman (52:31.900)

like geopolitical power exchanges

Lex Fridman (52:35.020)

and intra and interstate conflicts,

Lex Fridman (52:37.540)

like what you see in Syria and what you see in Ukraine,

Andrew Bustamante (52:40.400)

those are disgusting, terrible things.

Lex Fridman (52:42.180)

War is a terrible thing.

Andrew Bustamante (52:43.820)

That is a famous quote.

Lex Fridman (52:47.060)

But people will persevere.

Andrew Bustamante (52:49.780)

People will come through.

Lex Fridman (52:53.100)

I hope so.

Andrew Bustamante (52:54.300)

I hope so.

Lex Fridman (52:55.540)

And I hope we don't do something

Andrew Bustamante (52:59.980)

that I'll probably also ask you about later on

Lex Fridman (53:03.300)

is things that destroy the possibility of perseverance,

Andrew Bustamante (53:08.180)

which is things like nuclear war,

Lex Fridman (53:09.860)

things that can do such tremendous damage

Andrew Bustamante (53:14.300)

that we will never recover.

Lex Fridman (53:17.060)

But yeah, amidst your pragmatic pessimism,

Andrew Bustamante (53:22.100)

I think both you and I have a kind of

Lex Fridman (53:24.660)

maybe small flame of optimism in there

Andrew Bustamante (53:27.020)

about the perseverance of the human species in general.

Lex Fridman (53:30.540)

Let me ask you about intelligence agencies

Andrew Bustamante (53:33.800)

outside of the CIA.

Lex Fridman (53:35.240)

Can you illuminate what is the most powerful

Lex Fridman (53:41.500)

intelligence agency in the world?

Lex Fridman (53:43.880)

The CIA, the FSB, formerly the KGB, the MI6, Mossad.

Andrew Bustamante (53:49.620)

I've gotten a chance to interact with a lot of Israelis

Lex Fridman (53:52.860)

while in Ukraine.

Andrew Bustamante (53:54.180)

Just incredible people.

Lex Fridman (53:56.380)

Yeah, in terms of both training and skill,

Andrew Bustamante (53:58.180)

just every front.

Lex Fridman (54:00.080)

American soldiers too, just American military is incredible.

Andrew Bustamante (54:04.220)

I just, the competence and skill of the military,

Lex Fridman (54:08.500)

the United States, Israeli I got to interact,

Lex Fridman (54:10.980)

and Ukrainian as well.

Lex Fridman (54:12.560)

It's striking.

Andrew Bustamante (54:13.400)

It's striking, it's beautiful.

Lex Fridman (54:14.420)

I just love people, I love carpenters,

Andrew Bustamante (54:16.860)

or people that are just extremely good at their job

Lex Fridman (54:19.300)

and then take pride in their craftsmanship.

Andrew Bustamante (54:21.400)

It's beautiful to see.

Lex Fridman (54:22.780)

And I imagine the same kind of thing happens

Andrew Bustamante (54:24.580)

inside of intelligence agencies as well

Lex Fridman (54:27.260)

that we don't get to appreciate because of the secrecy.

Andrew Bustamante (54:29.940)

Same thing with like Lockheed Martin.

Lex Fridman (54:31.500)

I interviewed the CTO of Lockheed Martin.

Andrew Bustamante (54:34.220)

It breaks my heart, as a person who loves engineering,

Lex Fridman (54:38.380)

because of the cover of secrecy,

Andrew Bustamante (54:41.120)

we'll never get to know some of the incredible engineering

Lex Fridman (54:43.300)

that happens inside of Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Raytheon.

Andrew Bustamante (54:46.580)

Yeah, you know, there's kind of this idea

Lex Fridman (54:49.260)

that these are, you know, people have conspiracy theories

Lex Fridman (54:52.300)

and kind of assign evil to these companies in some part,

Lex Fridman (54:56.780)

but I think there's beautiful people inside those companies,

Andrew Bustamante (54:59.320)

brilliant people, and some incredible science

Lex Fridman (55:02.660)

and engineering is happening there.

Andrew Bustamante (55:04.380)

Anyway, that said, the CIA, the FSB, the MI6,

Lex Fridman (55:08.940)

Mossad, China, I know very little about the...

Andrew Bustamante (55:13.420)

MSS, the Ministry of State Security.

Lex Fridman (55:14.820)

I don't know how much you know.

Andrew Bustamante (55:16.520)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (55:17.940)

Or just other intelligence agencies.

Andrew Bustamante (55:19.780)

In India, Pakistan, I've also heard...

Lex Fridman (55:21.820)

Yeah, RAW is powerful, and so is ISSI.

Andrew Bustamante (55:24.220)

Yes, or ISSI.

Lex Fridman (55:26.860)

And then, of course, European nations in Germany and France.

Andrew Bustamante (55:30.420)

Yeah, so what can you say about the power,

Lex Fridman (55:33.700)

the influence of the different intelligence agencies

Lex Fridman (55:35.900)

within their nation and outside?

Lex Fridman (55:37.620)

Yeah, so to answer your question, your original question,

Andrew Bustamante (55:41.460)

which is the most powerful,

Lex Fridman (55:42.420)

I'm gonna have to give you a few different answers.

Lex Fridman (55:44.760)

So the most powerful intelligence organization in the world

Lex Fridman (55:49.240)

in terms of reach is the Chinese MSS,

Andrew Bustamante (55:53.180)

the Ministry of State Security,

Lex Fridman (55:54.820)

because they have created

Andrew Bustamante (55:57.800)

a single, solitary intelligence service

Lex Fridman (56:01.260)

that has global reach and is integrated

Andrew Bustamante (56:04.200)

with Chinese culture, so that essentially,

Lex Fridman (56:07.460)

every Chinese person anywhere in the world

Andrew Bustamante (56:09.760)

is an informant to the MSS,

Lex Fridman (56:11.500)

because that's their way of serving the Middle Kingdom,

Andrew Bustamante (56:15.460)

Zhongguo, the Central Kingdom, the Chinese word for China.

Lex Fridman (56:19.760)

So they're the strongest.

Andrew Bustamante (56:21.220)

They're the most powerful intelligence service

Lex Fridman (56:23.940)

in terms of reach.

Andrew Bustamante (56:24.820)

Most assets, most informants, most intelligence.

Lex Fridman (56:27.140)

So it's deeply integrated with the citizenry.

Andrew Bustamante (56:29.300)

Correct, with their culture.

Lex Fridman (56:30.820)

You know what a Chinese person who lives in Syria

Lex Fridman (56:32.980)

thinks of themself as?

Lex Fridman (56:34.340)

A Chinese person.

Lex Fridman (56:35.520)

Do you know what a Chinese person,

Lex Fridman (56:36.780)

a Chinese national living in the United States

Lex Fridman (56:38.940)

thinks of themself as?

Lex Fridman (56:40.140)

A Chinese person, right?

Andrew Bustamante (56:41.640)

Americans living abroad often think of ourselves

Lex Fridman (56:44.460)

as expats, expatriates, living on the local economy,

Andrew Bustamante (56:47.940)

embracing the local culture.

Lex Fridman (56:49.980)

That is not how Chinese people view

Andrew Bustamante (56:51.620)

traveling around the world.

Lex Fridman (56:52.580)

And by the way, if I may mention,

Andrew Bustamante (56:54.460)

I believe the way Mossad operates

Lex Fridman (56:59.460)

is a similar kind of thing,

Andrew Bustamante (57:01.100)

because people from Israel living abroad

Lex Fridman (57:04.460)

still think of themselves as Jewish and Israeli.

Andrew Bustamante (57:07.740)

First.

Lex Fridman (57:08.940)

First, so that allows you to integrate the.

Andrew Bustamante (57:11.740)

Culture, and yep, the faith based aspects.

Lex Fridman (57:13.820)

Exactly right.

Lex Fridman (57:14.660)

But the number of people in Israel is much, much smaller.

Lex Fridman (57:17.180)

Exactly right.

Andrew Bustamante (57:18.020)

The number of people in China.

Lex Fridman (57:18.840)

When it comes to reach, China wins that game.

Andrew Bustamante (57:21.340)

When it comes to professional capability,

Lex Fridman (57:23.940)

it's the CIA by far, because budget wise,

Andrew Bustamante (57:28.460)

capability wise, weapons system wise,

Lex Fridman (57:30.260)

modern technology wise,

Andrew Bustamante (57:31.500)

CIA is the leader around the world,

Lex Fridman (57:34.060)

which is why every other intelligence organization out there

Andrew Bustamante (57:36.780)

wants to partner with CIA.

Lex Fridman (57:38.940)

They want to learn from CIA.

Andrew Bustamante (57:40.820)

They want to train with CIA.

Lex Fridman (57:42.060)

They want to partner on counter narcotics,

Lex Fridman (57:45.300)

and counter drug, and counter terrorism,

Lex Fridman (57:47.020)

and counter Uyghur, you name it,

Andrew Bustamante (57:49.100)

people want to partner with CIA.

Lex Fridman (57:50.340)

So CIA is the most powerful

Andrew Bustamante (57:51.500)

in terms of capability and wealth.

Lex Fridman (57:54.540)

And then you've got the idea, you've got tech.

Lex Fridman (57:59.820)

So tech alone, meaning corporate espionage,

Lex Fridman (58:04.620)

economic espionage, nothing beats DGSE in France.

Andrew Bustamante (58:09.020)

They're the top.

Lex Fridman (58:10.660)

They've got a massive budget

Andrew Bustamante (58:11.860)

that almost goes exclusively to stealing foreign secrets.

Lex Fridman (58:14.740)

They're the biggest threat to the United States,

Andrew Bustamante (58:16.740)

even above Russia and above China.

Lex Fridman (58:19.580)

DGSE in France

Andrew Bustamante (58:20.620)

is a massively powerful intelligence organization,

Lex Fridman (58:23.460)

but they're so exclusively focused

Andrew Bustamante (58:25.960)

on a handful of types of intelligence collection

Lex Fridman (58:29.620)

that nobody even really thinks that they exist.

Lex Fridman (58:31.920)

And then in terms of just terrifying violence,

Lex Fridman (58:35.640)

you have Mossad.

Andrew Bustamante (58:36.700)

Mossad will do anything.

Lex Fridman (58:38.300)

Mossad has no qualms doing what it takes

Andrew Bustamante (58:42.140)

to ensure the survival

Lex Fridman (58:43.340)

of every Israeli citizen around the world.

Andrew Bustamante (58:46.460)

Most other countries will stop at some point,

Lex Fridman (58:49.620)

but Mossad doesn't do that.

Lex Fridman (58:51.420)

So it's the lines you're willing to cross.

Lex Fridman (58:54.780)

And the reasons that you're willing to cross them.

Andrew Bustamante (58:57.620)

The CIA will let an American stay in jail in Russia,

Lex Fridman (59:02.700)

unlawfully, and seek a diplomatic solution.

Andrew Bustamante (59:06.140)

I mean, the United States has let people,

Lex Fridman (59:07.860)

there are two gentlemen from the 1950s

Andrew Bustamante (59:10.580)

who were imprisoned in China for 20 years

Lex Fridman (59:12.900)

waiting for diplomatic solutions to their release.

Lex Fridman (59:16.660)

So we do not kill to save a citizen, but Mossad will.

Lex Fridman (59:26.620)

And then they'll not just kill,

Andrew Bustamante (59:28.360)

they'll do large scale infiltration.

Lex Fridman (59:31.640)

They'll do amazing things.

Andrew Bustamante (59:32.740)

There is no, they spare no expense

Lex Fridman (59:35.660)

because it's a demonstration to their own people.

Andrew Bustamante (59:38.340)

Again, going back to the whole idea of influence.

Lex Fridman (59:40.600)

Every intelligence operation that sees the light of day

Andrew Bustamante (59:45.940)

has two purposes.

Lex Fridman (59:47.860)

The first purpose is the intelligence operation.

Lex Fridman (59:51.380)

But if it was just the intelligence operation,

Lex Fridman (59:53.540)

it would stay secret forever.

Andrew Bustamante (59:54.940)

The second purpose

Lex Fridman (59:55.980)

of every successful intelligence operation,

Andrew Bustamante (59:57.980)

when they become public,

Lex Fridman (59:59.440)

is to send a signal to the world.