Tim Urban: Elon Musk, Neuralink, AI, Aliens, and the Future of Humanity

Lex Fridman (01:12.080)

so I think the small is more mysterious,

Lex Fridman (01:13.640)

but I think the big is sexier.

Lex Fridman (01:17.320)

I just cannot get enough of the bigness of space

Lex Fridman (01:23.580)

and the farness of stars.

Lex Fridman (01:26.300)

And it just continually blows my mind.

Tim Urban (01:29.200)

I mean, we still,

Lex Fridman (01:30.040)

the vastness of the observable universe

Tim Urban (01:33.440)

has the mystery that we don't know what's out there.

Lex Fridman (01:35.800)

We know how it works, perhaps.

Tim Urban (01:38.240)

Like, general relativity can tell us

Lex Fridman (01:40.880)

how the movement of bodies works,

Lex Fridman (01:42.780)

how they're born, all that kind of things.

Lex Fridman (01:45.360)

But like, how many civilizations are out there?

Lex Fridman (01:49.240)

How many, like, what are the weird things that are out there?

Lex Fridman (01:51.400)

Oh yeah, life.

Tim Urban (01:52.240)

Well, extraterrestrial life is a true mystery.

Lex Fridman (01:54.680)

The most tantalizing mystery of all.

Lex Fridman (01:58.400)

But that's like our size.

Lex Fridman (02:00.080)

So that's maybe it's that the actual,

Tim Urban (02:02.660)

the big and the small are really cool,

Lex Fridman (02:04.080)

but it's actually the things that are potentially our size

Tim Urban (02:06.440)

that are the most tantalizing.

Lex Fridman (02:07.720)

Potentially our size is probably the key word.

Tim Urban (02:10.160)

Yeah, I mean,

Lex Fridman (02:11.000)

I wonder how small intelligent life could get.

Tim Urban (02:13.420)

Probably not that small.

Lex Fridman (02:15.400)

And I assume that there's a limit that you're not gonna,

Tim Urban (02:18.360)

I mean, you might have like a whale,

Lex Fridman (02:19.920)

blue whale size intelligent being,

Tim Urban (02:21.840)

that would be kind of cool.

Lex Fridman (02:23.340)

But I feel like we're in the range of order of magnitude

Tim Urban (02:27.120)

smaller and bigger than us for life.

Lex Fridman (02:28.720)

But maybe not.

Tim Urban (02:29.600)

Maybe you could have some giant life form.

Lex Fridman (02:32.200)

Just seems like, I don't know,

Tim Urban (02:34.000)

there's gotta be some reason that anything intelligent

Lex Fridman (02:36.640)

between kind of like a little tiny rodent

Tim Urban (02:39.240)

or finger monkey up to a blue whale on this planet.

Lex Fridman (02:43.640)

I don't know.

Tim Urban (02:44.480)

Maybe when you change the gravity and other things.

Lex Fridman (02:47.720)

Well, you could think of life

Tim Urban (02:49.120)

as a thing of self assembling organisms

Lex Fridman (02:52.520)

and they just get bigger and bigger and bigger.

Tim Urban (02:54.000)

Like there's no such thing as a human being.

Lex Fridman (02:55.920)

A human being is made up of a bunch of tiny organisms

Tim Urban (02:58.920)

working together.

Lex Fridman (03:00.080)

And we somehow envision that as one entity

Tim Urban (03:03.040)

because it has consciousness.

Lex Fridman (03:04.560)

But maybe it's just organisms on top of organisms.

Tim Urban (03:08.060)

Organisms all the way down, turtles all the way down.

Lex Fridman (03:10.600)

So like earth can be seen as an organism

Tim Urban (03:13.320)

for people, for alien species that's very different.

Lex Fridman (03:18.240)

Like why is the human the fundamental entity

Tim Urban (03:21.500)

that is living and then everything else

Lex Fridman (03:24.980)

is just either a collection of humans

Lex Fridman (03:26.720)

or components of humans?

Lex Fridman (03:28.560)

I think if it kind of is, if you think about,

Tim Urban (03:30.360)

I think of like an emergence elevator.

Lex Fridman (03:32.600)

And so you've got an ant is on one floor

Lex Fridman (03:36.760)

and then the ant colony is a floor above.

Lex Fridman (03:39.560)

Or maybe there's even units within the colony

Tim Urban (03:41.280)

that's one floor above and the full colony

Lex Fridman (03:42.880)

is two floors above.

Lex Fridman (03:44.640)

And to me, I think that it's the colony

Lex Fridman (03:46.940)

that is closest to being the animal.

Tim Urban (03:49.400)

It's like the individual thing that competes with others

Lex Fridman (03:53.880)

while the individual ants are like cells

Tim Urban (03:57.640)

in the animal's body.

Lex Fridman (03:59.040)

We are more like a colony in that regard.

Lex Fridman (04:01.320)

But the humans are weird because we kind of,

Lex Fridman (04:04.660)

I think of it, if emergence happens in an emergence tower,

Tim Urban (04:08.240)

where you've got kind of, as I said,

Lex Fridman (04:09.560)

cells and then humans and communities and societies.

Tim Urban (04:13.320)

Ants are very specific.

Lex Fridman (04:15.040)

The individual ants are always cooperating

Tim Urban (04:16.920)

with each other for the sake of the colony.

Lex Fridman (04:19.240)

So the colony is this unit that is the competitive unit.

Tim Urban (04:22.680)

Humans can kind of go,

Lex Fridman (04:24.200)

we take the elevator up and down

Tim Urban (04:25.840)

emergence tower psychologically.

Lex Fridman (04:27.240)

Sometimes we are individuals

Tim Urban (04:29.000)

that are competing with other individuals

Lex Fridman (04:31.840)

and that's where our mindset is.

Lex Fridman (04:33.140)

And then other times we get in this crazy zone,

Lex Fridman (04:35.640)

you know, a protest or a sporting event

Lex Fridman (04:37.460)

and you're just chanting and screaming

Lex Fridman (04:40.120)

and doing the same hand motions

Tim Urban (04:41.240)

with all these other people and you feel like one.

Lex Fridman (04:43.800)

You feel like one, you know, and you'd sacrifice yourself.

Lex Fridman (04:45.720)

And now that's what, you know, soldiers.

Lex Fridman (04:46.920)

And so our brains can kind of psychologically

Tim Urban (04:50.480)

go up and down this elevator in an interesting way.

Lex Fridman (04:53.600)

Yeah, I wonder how much of that

Tim Urban (04:55.320)

is just the narrative we tell ourselves.

Lex Fridman (04:57.080)

Maybe we are just like an ant colony.

Tim Urban (04:59.040)

We're just collaborating always,

Lex Fridman (05:00.560)

even in our stories of individualism,

Tim Urban (05:04.160)

of like the freedom of the individual,

Lex Fridman (05:05.800)

like this kind of isolation,

Tim Urban (05:09.080)

lone man on an island kind of thing.

Lex Fridman (05:11.360)

We're actually all part of this giant network

Tim Urban (05:13.820)

of maybe one of the things that makes humans who we are

Lex Fridman (05:17.560)

is probably deeply social,

Tim Urban (05:21.120)

the ability to maintain

Lex Fridman (05:22.560)

not just the single human intelligence,

Lex Fridman (05:24.480)

but like a collective intelligence.

Lex Fridman (05:26.560)

And so this feeling like individual

Tim Urban (05:29.440)

is just because we woke up at this level of the hierarchy.

Lex Fridman (05:33.080)

So we make it special,

Lex Fridman (05:34.600)

but we very well could be just part of the ant colony.

Lex Fridman (05:39.760)

This whole conversation,

Tim Urban (05:40.840)

I'm either going to be doing a Shakespearean analysis

Lex Fridman (05:44.000)

of your Twitter, your writing,

Tim Urban (05:46.480)

or very specific statements that you've made.

Lex Fridman (05:49.560)

So you've written answers to a mailbag of questions.

Tim Urban (05:54.960)

The questions were amazing, the ones you've chosen,

Lex Fridman (05:57.080)

and your answers were amazing.

Lex Fridman (05:58.640)

So on this topic of the big and the small,

Lex Fridman (06:00.200)

somebody asked, are we bigger than we are small?

Lex Fridman (06:03.480)

Or smaller than we are big?

Lex Fridman (06:05.000)

Who's asking these questions?

Tim Urban (06:06.400)

This is really good.

Lex Fridman (06:08.000)

You have amazing fans.

Tim Urban (06:09.160)

Okay, so where do we sit at this level

Lex Fridman (06:15.800)

of the very small to the very big?

Lex Fridman (06:18.480)

So are we bigger or are we small?

Lex Fridman (06:20.040)

Are we bigger than we are small?

Tim Urban (06:21.560)

I think it depends on what we're asking here.

Lex Fridman (06:23.840)

So if we're talking about the biggest thing

Tim Urban (06:26.800)

that we kind of can talk about without just imagining

Lex Fridman (06:31.840)

is the observable universe, the Hubble sphere.

Lex Fridman (06:34.320)

And that's about 10 to the 26th meters in diameter.

Lex Fridman (06:41.800)

The smallest thing we talk about is a plank length,

Lex Fridman (06:44.480)

but you could argue that that's kind of an imaginary thing.

Lex Fridman (06:47.240)

But that's 10 to the negative 35.

Tim Urban (06:49.480)

Now we're about, conveniently, about 10 to the one.

Lex Fridman (06:52.560)

Not quite, 10 to the zero.

Tim Urban (06:53.880)

We're about 10 to the zero meters long.

Lex Fridman (06:56.960)

So it's easy because you can just look and say,

Tim Urban (06:59.120)

okay, well, for example, atoms are like 10

Lex Fridman (07:03.600)

to the negative 15th or 10 to the negative 16th meters

Lex Fridman (07:07.080)

across, right?

Lex Fridman (07:08.600)

If you go 10 to the 15th or 10 to the 16th,

Tim Urban (07:10.640)

which is right, that's now.

Lex Fridman (07:12.040)

So an atom to us is us to this.

Tim Urban (07:13.920)

You get to like nebulas, smaller than a galaxy

Lex Fridman (07:16.720)

and bigger than the biggest star.

Lex Fridman (07:18.560)

So we're right in between nebula and an atom.

Lex Fridman (07:22.800)

Now, if you wanna go down to quark level,

Tim Urban (07:24.160)

you might be able to get up to galaxy level.

Lex Fridman (07:27.600)

When you go up to the observable universe,

Tim Urban (07:29.320)

you're getting down on the small side

Lex Fridman (07:31.520)

to things that we, I think, are mostly theoretically

Tim Urban (07:35.640)

imagining are there and hypothesizing are there.

Lex Fridman (07:39.800)

So I think as far as real world objects

Tim Urban (07:43.400)

that we really know a lot about,

Lex Fridman (07:45.320)

I would say we are smaller than we are big.

Lex Fridman (07:48.840)

But if you wanna go down to the Planck length,

Lex Fridman (07:50.360)

we're very quickly, we're bigger than we are small.

Tim Urban (07:52.600)

If you think about strings.

Lex Fridman (07:54.120)

Yeah, strings, exactly, string theory and so on.

Tim Urban (07:57.640)

That's interesting.

Lex Fridman (07:58.640)

But I think like you answered,

Tim Urban (08:00.200)

no matter what, we're kind of middleish.

Lex Fridman (08:02.040)

Yeah, I mean, here's something cool.

Tim Urban (08:04.360)

If a human is a neutrino, and again, neutrino,

Lex Fridman (08:06.840)

the size doesn't really make sense.

Tim Urban (08:08.560)

It's not really a size.

Lex Fridman (08:09.640)

But when we talk about some of these neutrinos,

Tim Urban (08:11.640)

I mean, if a neutrino is a human, a proton is the sun.

Lex Fridman (08:15.480)

So that's like, I mean, a proton is real small,

Tim Urban (08:18.680)

like really small.

Lex Fridman (08:20.680)

And so, yeah, the small gets like crazy small very quickly.

Tim Urban (08:25.680)

Let's talk about aliens.

Lex Fridman (08:30.440)

We already mentioned it.

Tim Urban (08:32.800)

Let's start just by with the basic,

Lex Fridman (08:34.200)

what's your intuition as of today?

Tim Urban (08:36.040)

This is a thing that could change day by day.

Lex Fridman (08:38.400)

But how many alien civilizations out there?

Lex Fridman (08:40.920)

Is it zero?

Lex Fridman (08:42.360)

Is it a handful?

Tim Urban (08:45.200)

Is it almost endless, like the observable universe

Lex Fridman (08:50.280)

or the universe is teeming with life?

Tim Urban (08:52.240)

If I had gun to my head, I have to take a guess.

Lex Fridman (08:54.800)

I would say it's teeming with life.

Tim Urban (08:56.360)

I would say there is.

Lex Fridman (08:57.720)

I think running a Monte Carlo simulation,

Tim Urban (09:00.720)

this paper by Andrew Sandberg and Drexler

Lex Fridman (09:03.960)

and a few others a couple of years ago,

Tim Urban (09:05.720)

I think you probably know about it.

Lex Fridman (09:07.280)

I think the mean,

Tim Urban (09:12.280)

using different,

Lex Fridman (09:16.040)

running through randomized rake equation multiplication,

Tim Urban (09:20.240)

you're ended up with 27 million as the mean

Lex Fridman (09:23.560)

of intelligent civilizations in the galaxy,

Tim Urban (09:26.480)

in the Milky Way alone.

Lex Fridman (09:29.040)

And so then if you go outside the Milky Way,

Tim Urban (09:30.640)

that would turn into trillions.

Lex Fridman (09:32.280)

That's the mean.

Tim Urban (09:34.280)

Now, what's interesting is that there's a long tail

Lex Fridman (09:37.000)

because they believe some of these multipliers

Tim Urban (09:40.040)

in the Drake equation.

Lex Fridman (09:40.880)

So for example, the probability that life starts

Tim Urban (09:45.600)

in the first place,

Lex Fridman (09:46.960)

they think that the kind of range that we use

Tim Urban (09:51.960)

is for that variable or is way too small.

Lex Fridman (09:54.480)

And that's constraining our possibilities.

Lex Fridman (09:57.640)

And if you actually extend it to some crazy number

Lex Fridman (10:00.960)

of orders of magnitude, like 200,

Tim Urban (10:03.080)

they think that that variable should be,

Lex Fridman (10:06.800)

you get this long tail where,

Tim Urban (10:08.640)

I forget the exact number,

Lex Fridman (10:09.480)

but it's like a third or a quarter

Tim Urban (10:11.400)

of the total outcomes have us alone.

Lex Fridman (10:14.960)

I think it's a sizable percentage has us

Tim Urban (10:18.920)

as the only intelligent life in the galaxy,

Lex Fridman (10:22.200)

but you can keep going.

Lex Fridman (10:23.040)

And I think there's like a non zero,

Lex Fridman (10:25.680)

like legitimate amount of outcomes there

Tim Urban (10:28.160)

that have us as the only life

Lex Fridman (10:30.120)

in the observable universe at all is on earth.

Tim Urban (10:32.640)

I mean, it seems incredibly counterintuitive.

Lex Fridman (10:35.400)

It seems like, you mentioned that people think

Tim Urban (10:37.960)

you must be an idiot because if you picked up one grain

Lex Fridman (10:41.440)

of sand on a beach and examined it

Lex Fridman (10:42.960)

and you found all these little things on it,

Lex Fridman (10:44.280)

it's like saying, well, maybe this is the only one

Tim Urban (10:46.600)

that has that.

Lex Fridman (10:47.440)

And it's like, probably not.

Tim Urban (10:48.760)

They're probably most of the sand probably

Lex Fridman (10:50.840)

or a lot of the sand, right?

Tim Urban (10:52.320)

So, and then the other hand, we don't see anything.

Lex Fridman (10:54.520)

We don't see any evidence, which of course,

Tim Urban (10:56.680)

people would say that the people who stuff scoff

Lex Fridman (10:59.280)

at the concept that we're potentially alone,

Tim Urban (11:03.200)

they say, well, of course, there's lots of reasons

Lex Fridman (11:05.400)

we wouldn't have seen anything.

Lex Fridman (11:06.600)

And they can go list them and they're very compelling,

Lex Fridman (11:09.960)

but we don't know.

Lex Fridman (11:11.800)

And the truth is if there were,

Lex Fridman (11:12.960)

if this were a freak thing, I mean, we don't,

Tim Urban (11:14.640)

if this were a completely freak thing that happened here,

Lex Fridman (11:17.720)

whether it's life at all or just getting

Tim Urban (11:19.600)

to this level of intelligence,

Lex Fridman (11:23.200)

that species, whoever it was, would think

Tim Urban (11:25.680)

there must be lots of us out there and they'd be wrong.

Lex Fridman (11:28.320)

So just being, again, using the same intuition

Tim Urban (11:30.760)

that most people would use, I'd say there's probably lots

Lex Fridman (11:32.760)

of other things out there.

Tim Urban (11:34.400)

Yeah, and you wrote a great blog post about it.

Lex Fridman (11:36.640)

But to me, the two interesting reasons

Tim Urban (11:40.480)

that we haven't been in contact, I too have an intuition

Lex Fridman (11:44.920)

that the universe is teeming with life.

Lex Fridman (11:47.600)

So one interesting is around the great filter.

Lex Fridman (11:50.720)

So we either, the great filter's either behind us

Tim Urban (11:54.120)

or in front of us.

Lex Fridman (11:55.240)

So the reason that's interesting is you get to think

Tim Urban (11:58.200)

about what kind of things ensure

Lex Fridman (12:01.520)

or ensure the survival of an intelligent civilization

Tim Urban (12:05.920)

or lead to the destruction of intelligent civilization.

Lex Fridman (12:08.480)

That's a very pragmatic, very important question

Tim Urban (12:10.560)

to always be asking.

Lex Fridman (12:11.880)

And we'll talk about some of those.

Lex Fridman (12:13.400)

And then the other one is I'm saddened by the possibility

Lex Fridman (12:18.480)

that there could be aliens communicating

Tim Urban (12:20.320)

with us all the time.

Lex Fridman (12:21.660)

In fact, they may have visited.

Lex Fridman (12:25.160)

And we're just too dumb to hear it, to see it.

Lex Fridman (12:29.620)

Like the idea that the kind of life that can evolve

Tim Urban (12:34.540)

is just the range of life that can evolve is so large

Lex Fridman (12:38.120)

that our narrow view of what is life

Lex Fridman (12:41.480)

and what is intelligent life is preventing us

Lex Fridman (12:43.680)

from having communication with them.

Lex Fridman (12:45.800)

But then they don't seem very smart

Lex Fridman (12:47.720)

because if they were trying to communicate with us,

Tim Urban (12:50.400)

they would surely, if they were super intelligent,

Lex Fridman (12:53.400)

they would be very, I'm sure if there's lots of life,

Tim Urban (12:56.440)

we're not that rare, we're not some crazy weird species

Lex Fridman (12:59.360)

that hears and has different kinds of ways

Tim Urban (13:01.920)

of perceiving signals.

Lex Fridman (13:04.640)

So they would probably be able to,

Tim Urban (13:06.960)

if you really wanted to communicate

Lex Fridman (13:08.160)

with an earth like species, with a human like species,

Tim Urban (13:12.080)

you would send out all kinds of things.

Lex Fridman (13:14.120)

You'd send out radio waves and you send out gravity waves

Lex Fridman (13:18.820)

and lots of things.

Lex Fridman (13:20.720)

So if they're communicating in a way,

Tim Urban (13:22.160)

they're trying to communicate with us

Lex Fridman (13:23.880)

and it's just we're too dumb to perceive the signals,

Tim Urban (13:25.980)

it's like, well, they're not doing a great job

Lex Fridman (13:28.380)

of considering the primitive species we might be.

Lex Fridman (13:32.800)

So I don't know, I think if a super intelligent species

Lex Fridman (13:35.840)

wanted to get in touch with us and had the capability of,

Tim Urban (13:40.880)

I think probably they would.

Lex Fridman (13:43.560)

Well, they may be getting in touch with us,

Tim Urban (13:48.640)

they're just getting in touch with the thing

Lex Fridman (13:50.100)

that we humans are not understanding

Tim Urban (13:52.240)

that they're getting in touch with us with.

Lex Fridman (13:53.780)

I guess that's what I was trying to say is

Tim Urban (13:55.960)

there could be something about earth

Lex Fridman (13:57.560)

that's much more special than us humans.

Tim Urban (14:00.240)

Like the nature of the intelligence that's on earth

Lex Fridman (14:02.680)

or the thing that's of value and that's curious

Lex Fridman (14:07.600)

and that's complicated and fascinating and beautiful

Lex Fridman (14:10.640)

might be something that's not just like tweets, okay?

Tim Urban (14:15.280)

Like English language that's interpretable

Lex Fridman (14:17.200)

or any kind of language or any kind of signal,

Tim Urban (14:19.720)

whether it's gravity or radio signal

Lex Fridman (14:22.360)

that humans seem to appreciate.

Lex Fridman (14:24.920)

Why not the actual, it could be the process

Lex Fridman (14:28.520)

of evolution itself.

Tim Urban (14:29.560)

There could be something about the way

Lex Fridman (14:31.120)

that earth is breathing essentially

Tim Urban (14:33.280)

through the creation of life

Lex Fridman (14:34.660)

and this complex growth of life.

Tim Urban (14:37.320)

There's like, it's a whole different way

Lex Fridman (14:40.400)

to view organisms and view life

Tim Urban (14:42.920)

that could be getting communicated with.

Lex Fridman (14:44.920)

And we humans are just a tiny fingertip

Tim Urban (14:47.140)

on top of that intelligence.

Lex Fridman (14:49.000)

And the communication is happening

Tim Urban (14:50.560)

with the main mothership of earth

Lex Fridman (14:54.360)

versus us humans that seem to treat ourselves

Tim Urban (14:56.880)

as super important and we're missing the big picture.

Lex Fridman (15:00.480)

I mean, it sounds crazy, but our understanding

Tim Urban (15:03.760)

of what is intelligent, of what is life,

Lex Fridman (15:05.760)

what is consciousness is very limited.

Lex Fridman (15:08.040)

And it seems to be, and just being very suspicious,

Lex Fridman (15:11.840)

it seems to be awfully human centric.

Tim Urban (15:14.380)

Like this story, it seems like the progress of science

Lex Fridman (15:17.860)

is constantly putting humans down on the importance,

Tim Urban (15:22.860)

humans down on the cosmic importance,

Lex Fridman (15:28.240)

the ranking of how big we are, how important we are.

Tim Urban (15:32.120)

That seems to be the more we discover

Lex Fridman (15:33.960)

that's what's happening.

Lex Fridman (15:34.900)

And I think science is very young.

Lex Fridman (15:37.320)

And so I think eventually we might figure out

Tim Urban (15:39.840)

that there's something much, much bigger going on,

Lex Fridman (15:41.920)

that humans are just a curious little side effect

Tim Urban (15:45.080)

of the much bigger thing.

Lex Fridman (15:46.440)

That's what, I mean, that, as I'm saying,

Tim Urban (15:49.320)

it just sounds insane, but.

Lex Fridman (15:50.680)

Well, it just, it sounds a little like religious.

Tim Urban (15:54.240)

It sounds like a spiritual, it gets to that realm

Lex Fridman (15:59.080)

where there's something that more than meets the eye.

Tim Urban (16:02.000)

Well, yeah, but not, so religious and spiritual,

Lex Fridman (16:07.560)

often have this kind of whoo whoo characteristic,

Tim Urban (16:11.120)

like when people write books about them,

Lex Fridman (16:12.940)

then go to wars over whatever the heck

Tim Urban (16:14.620)

is written in those books.

Lex Fridman (16:16.200)

I mean, more like it's possible that collective intelligence

Lex Fridman (16:19.860)

is more important than individual intelligence, right?

Lex Fridman (16:22.360)

It's the ant colony.

Lex Fridman (16:23.480)

What's the primal organism?

Lex Fridman (16:24.840)

Is it the ant colony or is it the ant?

Tim Urban (16:26.920)

Yeah, I mean, humans, just like any individual ant

Lex Fridman (16:29.640)

can't do shit, but the colony can do,

Tim Urban (16:32.120)

make this incredible structures and has this intelligence.

Lex Fridman (16:35.440)

And we're exactly the same.

Tim Urban (16:36.840)

I mean, you know the famous thing that no one,

Lex Fridman (16:40.240)

no human knows how to make a pencil.

Lex Fridman (16:43.560)

Have you heard this?

Lex Fridman (16:44.680)

No. Basically, I mean.

Tim Urban (16:45.520)

This is great.

Lex Fridman (16:47.380)

There's not, a single human out there

Tim Urban (16:49.640)

has absolutely no idea how to make a pencil.

Lex Fridman (16:51.640)

So you have to think about, you have to get the wood,

Tim Urban (16:54.040)

the paint, the different chemicals

Lex Fridman (16:56.160)

that make up the yellow paint.

Tim Urban (16:57.640)

The eraser is a whole other thing.

Lex Fridman (16:59.480)

The metal has to be mined from somewhere

Lex Fridman (17:01.440)

and then the graphite, whatever that is.

Lex Fridman (17:04.640)

And there's not one person on earth

Tim Urban (17:06.120)

who knows how to kind of collect all those materials

Lex Fridman (17:10.040)

and create a pencil, but together,

Tim Urban (17:12.600)

that's one of the, that's child's play.

Lex Fridman (17:14.120)

It's just one of the easiest things.

Tim Urban (17:15.280)

So, you know, the other thing I like to think about,

Lex Fridman (17:18.520)

I actually put this as a question on the blog once.

Tim Urban (17:22.360)

There's a thought experiment

Lex Fridman (17:24.800)

and I actually wanna hear what you think.

Lex Fridman (17:26.000)

So if a witch, kind of a dickish witch comes around

Lex Fridman (17:30.800)

and she says, I'm gonna cast a spell on all of humanity

Lex Fridman (17:35.040)

and all material things that you've invented

Lex Fridman (17:39.360)

are gonna disappear all at once.

Lex Fridman (17:41.380)

So suddenly we're all standing there naked.

Lex Fridman (17:42.960)

There's no buildings.

Tim Urban (17:44.500)

There's no cars and boats and ships and no mines,

Lex Fridman (17:48.720)

nothing, right?

Tim Urban (17:49.880)

It's just the stone age earth and a bunch of naked humans,

Lex Fridman (17:52.960)

but we're all the same, we have the same brain.

Lex Fridman (17:54.440)

So we're all know what's going on.

Lex Fridman (17:55.920)

And we all got a note from her, so we understand the deal.

Lex Fridman (17:57.960)

And she says, she communicated to every human,

Lex Fridman (18:00.560)

here's the deal, you lost all your stuff.

Tim Urban (18:04.000)

You guys need to make one working iPhone 13

Lex Fridman (18:07.320)

and you make one working iPhone 13

Tim Urban (18:09.520)

that could pass in the Apple store today,

Lex Fridman (18:11.680)

you know, in your previous world

Tim Urban (18:13.880)

for an iPhone 13, then I will restore everything.

Lex Fridman (18:16.440)

How long do you think?

Lex Fridman (18:17.360)

And so everyone knows this is the mission.

Lex Fridman (18:19.080)

We're all aware of the mission, everyone, all humans.

Lex Fridman (18:22.680)

How long would it take us?

Lex Fridman (18:23.800)

That's a really interesting question.

Lex Fridman (18:25.240)

So obviously if you do a random selection

Lex Fridman (18:28.000)

of 100 or a thousand humans within the population,

Tim Urban (18:31.280)

I think you're screwed to make that iPhone.

Lex Fridman (18:34.720)

I tend to believe that there's fascinating specialization

Tim Urban (18:39.540)

among the human civilization.

Lex Fridman (18:40.840)

Like there's a few hackers out there

Tim Urban (18:43.160)

that can like solo build an iPhone.

Lex Fridman (18:46.500)

But with what materials?

Lex Fridman (18:48.520)

So no materials whatsoever.

Lex Fridman (18:51.480)

It has to, I mean, it's virtually, I mean, okay.

Tim Urban (18:54.920)

You have to build factories.

Lex Fridman (18:56.560)

I mean, to fabricate.

Tim Urban (19:00.960)

Okay.

Lex Fridman (19:02.120)

And how are you gonna mine them?

Tim Urban (19:03.360)

You know, you gotta mine the materials

Lex Fridman (19:04.420)

where you don't have any cranes.

Tim Urban (19:05.480)

You don't have any, you know.

Lex Fridman (19:06.740)

Okay, you 100% have to have the, everybody's naked.

Tim Urban (19:10.820)

Everyone's naked and everyone's where they are.

Lex Fridman (19:12.320)

So you and I would currently be naked.

Tim Urban (19:14.000)

It's on the ground in what used to be Manhattan.

Lex Fridman (19:16.280)

So no building.

Tim Urban (19:17.120)

No, grassy island.

Lex Fridman (19:18.600)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (19:19.440)

So you need a naked Elon Musk type character

Lex Fridman (19:22.140)

to then start building a company.

Tim Urban (19:23.840)

You have to have a large company then.

Lex Fridman (19:25.600)

Right.

Tim Urban (19:26.440)

He doesn't even know where he, you know,

Lex Fridman (19:27.480)

where is everyone?

Tim Urban (19:28.320)

You know, oh shit, how am I gonna find

Lex Fridman (19:29.680)

other people I need to talk to?

Lex Fridman (19:30.520)

But we have all the knowledge of.

Lex Fridman (19:32.000)

Yeah, everyone has the knowledge

Tim Urban (19:33.000)

that's in their current brains.

Lex Fridman (19:34.040)

Yeah.

Tim Urban (19:34.880)

I've met some legit engineers.

Lex Fridman (19:38.440)

Crazy polymath people.

Tim Urban (19:39.800)

Yeah, but the actual labor of,

Lex Fridman (19:42.840)

cause you said, cause like the original Mac,

Tim Urban (19:47.160)

like the Apple II, that can be built.

Lex Fridman (19:50.480)

But.

Tim Urban (19:51.480)

Even that, you know.

Lex Fridman (19:52.320)

Even that's gonna be tough.

Tim Urban (19:53.160)

Well, I think part of it is a communication problem.

Lex Fridman (19:55.240)

If you could suddenly have, you know, someone,

Tim Urban (19:56.880)

if everyone had a walkie talkie

Lex Fridman (19:58.160)

and there was, you know, a couple, you know,

Tim Urban (19:59.600)

10 really smart people were designated the leaders,

Lex Fridman (1:00:01.320)

So I think of it as a very simple,

Tim Urban (1:00:04.120)

oversimplified equation, human behavior.

Lex Fridman (1:00:07.920)

And it's the output.

Tim Urban (1:00:09.880)

That I think the two inputs are human nature

Lex Fridman (1:00:12.040)

and environment, right?

Lex Fridman (1:00:13.120)

And this is basic, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:00:14.520)

super kindergarten level like, you know, animal behavior.

Lex Fridman (1:00:18.480)

But I think it's worth thinking about.

Lex Fridman (1:00:20.120)

You've got human nature,

Lex Fridman (1:00:21.280)

which is not changing very much, right?

Lex Fridman (1:00:24.040)

And then you got, you throw that nature

Tim Urban (1:00:27.600)

into a certain environment

Lex Fridman (1:00:29.040)

and it reacts to the environment, right?

Tim Urban (1:00:30.840)

It's shaped by the environment.

Lex Fridman (1:00:32.560)

And then eventually what comes out is behavior, right?

Tim Urban (1:00:36.480)

Human nature is not changing very much,

Lex Fridman (1:00:38.040)

but suddenly we're behaving differently, right?

Tim Urban (1:00:40.320)

We are, again, you know, look at the polls.

Lex Fridman (1:00:42.600)

Like it used to be that the president, you know,

Tim Urban (1:00:45.160)

was liked by, I don't remember the exact numbers,

Lex Fridman (1:00:47.080)

but, you know, 80% or 70% of their own party

Tim Urban (1:00:51.200)

and, you know, 50% of the other party.

Lex Fridman (1:00:53.040)

And now it's like 40% of their own party

Lex Fridman (1:00:54.680)

and 10% of the other party, you know?

Lex Fridman (1:00:56.120)

It's, and it's not that the presidents are getting worse.

Tim Urban (1:00:59.360)

Maybe some people would argue that they are,

Lex Fridman (1:01:00.760)

but more so, and there's a lot of, you know,

Tim Urban (1:01:04.000)

idiot presidents throughout the,

Lex Fridman (1:01:05.720)

what's going on is something in the environment is changing.

Lex Fridman (1:01:08.320)

And that's, you're seeing is a change in behavior.

Lex Fridman (1:01:11.240)

A easy example here is that, you know,

Tim Urban (1:01:12.840)

by a lot of metrics,

Lex Fridman (1:01:14.080)

racism is getting, is becoming less and less of a problem.

Tim Urban (1:01:19.160)

You know, it's hard to measure, but there's metrics like,

Lex Fridman (1:01:21.880)

you know, how upset would you be

Lex Fridman (1:01:23.320)

if your kid married someone of another race?

Lex Fridman (1:01:26.560)

And that number is plummeting,

Lex Fridman (1:01:28.040)

but racial grievance is skyrocketing, right?

Lex Fridman (1:01:30.840)

There's a lot of examples like this.

Lex Fridman (1:01:32.040)

So I wanted to look around and say,

Lex Fridman (1:01:33.640)

and the reason I took it on,

Tim Urban (1:01:34.760)

the reason I don't think this is just an unfortunate trend,

Lex Fridman (1:01:36.840)

unpleasant trend that hopefully we come out of,

Tim Urban (1:01:38.920)

is that all this other stuff I like to write about,

Lex Fridman (1:01:40.480)

all this future stuff, right?

Lex Fridman (1:01:42.000)

And it's this magical, I always think of this,

Lex Fridman (1:01:43.760)

like I'm very optimistic in a lot of ways.

Lex Fridman (1:01:45.280)

And I think that our world would be a utopia,

Lex Fridman (1:01:48.480)

would seem like actual heaven.

Tim Urban (1:01:50.160)

Like whatever Thomas Jefferson was picturing as heaven,

Lex Fridman (1:01:53.680)

other than maybe the eternal life aspect,

Tim Urban (1:01:55.440)

I think that if he came to 2021 US, it would be better.

Lex Fridman (1:01:59.200)

It's cooler than heaven.

Lex Fridman (1:02:00.920)

But we live in a place that's cooler than 1700s heaven.

Lex Fridman (1:02:03.880)

Again, other than the fact that we still die.

Tim Urban (1:02:05.640)

Now, I think the future world

Lex Fridman (1:02:07.240)

actually probably would have, quote, eternal life.

Tim Urban (1:02:09.640)

I don't think anyone wants eternal life actually,

Lex Fridman (1:02:12.000)

if people think they do.

Tim Urban (1:02:13.320)

Eternal is a long time.

Lex Fridman (1:02:14.560)

But I think the choice to die when you want,

Tim Urban (1:02:16.920)

maybe we're uploaded, maybe we can refresh our bodies.

Lex Fridman (1:02:19.400)

I don't know what it is.

Lex Fridman (1:02:20.240)

But the point is, I think about that utopia.

Lex Fridman (1:02:23.400)

And I do believe that like, if we don't botch this,

Tim Urban (1:02:25.920)

we'd be heading towards somewhere

Lex Fridman (1:02:27.120)

that would seem like heaven, maybe in our lifetimes.

Tim Urban (1:02:30.040)

Of course, if things go wrong,

Lex Fridman (1:02:32.920)

now think about the trends here.

Tim Urban (1:02:34.880)

Just like the 20th century would seem like

Lex Fridman (1:02:36.960)

some magical utopia to someone from the 16th century.

Lex Fridman (1:02:39.680)

But the bad things in the 20th century

Lex Fridman (1:02:43.880)

were kind of the worst things ever

Tim Urban (1:02:46.160)

in terms of just absolute magnitude.

Lex Fridman (1:02:48.000)

World War II, the biggest genocides ever.

Tim Urban (1:02:52.080)

You've got maybe climate change,

Lex Fridman (1:02:55.080)

if it is the existential threat that many people think it is.

Tim Urban (1:02:58.400)

We never had an existential threat on that level before.

Lex Fridman (1:03:01.040)

So the good is getting better and the bad is getting worse.

Lex Fridman (1:03:04.000)

And so what I think about the future,

Lex Fridman (1:03:05.400)

I think of us as some kind of big, long canoe as a species.

Tim Urban (1:03:10.920)

5 million mile long canoe, each of us sitting in a row.

Lex Fridman (1:03:14.920)

And we each have one oar,

Lex Fridman (1:03:16.280)

and we can paddle on the left side or the right side.

Lex Fridman (1:03:18.520)

And what we know is there's a fork up there somewhere.

Lex Fridman (1:03:21.960)

And the river forks, and there's a utopia on one side

Lex Fridman (1:03:26.000)

and a dystopia on the other side.

Lex Fridman (1:03:27.200)

And I really believe that that's,

Lex Fridman (1:03:28.560)

we're probably not headed for just an okay future.

Tim Urban (1:03:30.440)

It's just the way tech is exploding,

Lex Fridman (1:03:32.400)

like it's probably gonna be really good or really bad.

Lex Fridman (1:03:34.200)

The question is which side should we be rowing on?

Lex Fridman (1:03:35.800)

We can't see up there, right?

Lex Fridman (1:03:37.720)

But it really matters.

Lex Fridman (1:03:38.560)

So I'm writing about all this future stuff

Lex Fridman (1:03:39.560)

and I'm saying none of this matters

Lex Fridman (1:03:40.600)

if we're squabbling our way into kind of like

Tim Urban (1:03:43.040)

a civil war right now.

Lex Fridman (1:03:44.380)

So what's going on?

Lex Fridman (1:03:45.720)

So it's a really important problem to solve.

Lex Fridman (1:03:48.540)

What are your sources of hope in this?

Lex Fridman (1:03:51.820)

So like how do you steer the canoe?

Lex Fridman (1:03:54.880)

One of my big sources of hope,

Lex Fridman (1:03:56.280)

and this is I think my answer to what I changed my mind on,

Lex Fridman (1:03:59.840)

is I think I always knew this, but it's easy to forget it.

Tim Urban (1:04:03.640)

Our primitive brain does not remember this fact,

Lex Fridman (1:04:05.540)

which is that I don't think there are very many bad people.

Lex Fridman (1:04:11.140)

Now, you say bad, are there selfish people?

Lex Fridman (1:04:13.560)

Most of us, I think that if you think of people,

Tim Urban (1:04:18.140)

there's digital languages, ones and zeros.

Lex Fridman (1:04:21.560)

And our primitive brain very quickly can get into the land

Tim Urban (1:04:24.040)

where everyone's a one or a zero.

Lex Fridman (1:04:25.000)

Our tribe, we're all ones, we're perfect.

Tim Urban (1:04:26.880)

I'm perfect, my family is that other family,

Lex Fridman (1:04:28.760)

it's that other tribe.

Lex Fridman (1:04:29.600)

There are zeros and then you dehumanize them, right?

Lex Fridman (1:04:31.760)

These people are awful.

Lex Fridman (1:04:33.880)

So zero is not a human place.

Lex Fridman (1:04:36.140)

No one's a zero and no one's a one.

Tim Urban (1:04:37.640)

You're dehumanizing yourself.

Lex Fridman (1:04:39.200)

So when we get into this land,

Tim Urban (1:04:41.040)

I call it political Disney world,

Lex Fridman (1:04:42.640)

because the Disney movies have good guys.

Lex Fridman (1:04:44.760)

Scar is totally bad and Mufasa is totally good, right?

Lex Fridman (1:04:48.640)

You don't see Mufasa's character flaws.

Tim Urban (1:04:50.320)

You don't see Scar's upbringing that made him like that,

Lex Fridman (1:04:52.960)

that humanizes him.

Tim Urban (1:04:53.800)

No, lionizes him, whatever.

Lex Fridman (1:04:55.520)

You are.

Tim Urban (1:04:56.760)

Well done.

Lex Fridman (1:04:57.600)

Mufasa's a one and Scar's a zero, very simple.

Lex Fridman (1:05:01.760)

So political Disney world is a place,

Lex Fridman (1:05:03.640)

it's a psychological place that all of us have been in.

Lex Fridman (1:05:06.640)

And it can be religious Disney world,

Lex Fridman (1:05:08.160)

it can be national Disney world and the war, whatever it is,

Lex Fridman (1:05:10.960)

but it's a place where we fall into this delusion

Lex Fridman (1:05:13.320)

that there are protagonists and antagonists

Lex Fridman (1:05:14.800)

and that's it, right?

Lex Fridman (1:05:15.680)

That is not true.

Tim Urban (1:05:16.920)

We are all 0.5s or maybe 0.6s to 0.4s in that.

Lex Fridman (1:05:20.880)

We are also, on one hand,

Tim Urban (1:05:22.600)

I don't think there's that many really great people,

Lex Fridman (1:05:24.400)

frankly, I think if you get into it,

Tim Urban (1:05:26.160)

people are kind of, a lot of people,

Lex Fridman (1:05:27.760)

most of us have, if you get really

Tim Urban (1:05:29.480)

into our most shameful memories,

Lex Fridman (1:05:31.120)

the things we've done that are worse,

Tim Urban (1:05:32.360)

the most shameful thoughts,

Lex Fridman (1:05:33.400)

the deep selfishness that some of us have

Lex Fridman (1:05:35.040)

in areas we wouldn't want to admit, right?

Lex Fridman (1:05:37.080)

Most of us have a lot of unadmirable stuff, right?

Tim Urban (1:05:40.520)

On the other hand, if you actually got into,

Lex Fridman (1:05:42.440)

really got into someone else's brain

Lex Fridman (1:05:44.240)

and you looked at their upbringing,

Lex Fridman (1:05:45.320)

you looked at the trauma that they've experienced

Lex Fridman (1:05:47.080)

and then you looked at the insecurities they have

Lex Fridman (1:05:49.600)

and you look at all their,

Tim Urban (1:05:50.440)

if you assemble the highlight reel of your worst moments,

Lex Fridman (1:05:53.600)

the meanest things you've ever done,

Tim Urban (1:05:55.480)

the worst, the most selfish,

Lex Fridman (1:05:56.640)

the times you stole something, whatever,

Lex Fridman (1:05:58.440)

and you just, people are like,

Lex Fridman (1:05:59.280)

wow, Lex is an awful person.

Tim Urban (1:06:00.920)

If you highlighted your,

Lex Fridman (1:06:01.760)

if you did a montage of your best moments,

Lex Fridman (1:06:03.560)

people would say, oh, he's a god, right?

Lex Fridman (1:06:05.000)

But of course, we all have both of those.

Tim Urban (1:06:06.760)

So, I've started to really try to remind myself

Lex Fridman (1:06:11.480)

that everyone's a 0.5, right?

Lex Fridman (1:06:13.680)

And 0.5s are all worthy of criticism

Lex Fridman (1:06:15.880)

and we're all worthy of compassion.

Lex Fridman (1:06:17.720)

And the thing that makes me hopeful

Lex Fridman (1:06:19.840)

is that I really think that there's a bunch of 0.5s

Lex Fridman (1:06:22.640)

and 0.5s are good enough

Lex Fridman (1:06:24.720)

that we should be able to create a good society together.

Tim Urban (1:06:26.480)

There's a lot of love in every human.

Lex Fridman (1:06:28.040)

And I think there's more love in humans than hate.

Tim Urban (1:06:32.080)

I always remember this moment,

Lex Fridman (1:06:34.360)

this is a weird anecdote,

Lex Fridman (1:06:35.600)

but I'm a Red Sox fan, Boston Red Sox baseball,

Lex Fridman (1:06:38.000)

and Derek Jeter is who we hate the most.

Tim Urban (1:06:40.440)

He's on the Yankees.

Lex Fridman (1:06:41.360)

Yes.

Lex Fridman (1:06:42.400)

And hate, right?

Lex Fridman (1:06:44.720)

Jeter, right?

Tim Urban (1:06:45.840)

He was his last game in Fenway, he's retiring.

Lex Fridman (1:06:47.960)

And he got this rousing standing ovation

Lex Fridman (1:06:49.800)

and I almost cried.

Lex Fridman (1:06:50.960)

And it was like, what is going on?

Tim Urban (1:06:52.480)

We hate this guy,

Lex Fridman (1:06:53.320)

but actually there's so much love in all humans.

Tim Urban (1:06:56.080)

It felt so good to just give a huge cheer

Lex Fridman (1:06:58.640)

to this guy we hate because it's like this moment

Tim Urban (1:07:00.840)

of like a little fist pound being like,

Lex Fridman (1:07:02.280)

of course we all actually love each other.

Lex Fridman (1:07:04.000)

And I think there's so much of that.

Lex Fridman (1:07:06.200)

And so the thing that I think I've come around on

Tim Urban (1:07:08.120)

is I think that we are in an environment

Lex Fridman (1:07:11.160)

that's bringing out really bad stuff.

Tim Urban (1:07:13.280)

I don't think it's, if I thought it was the people,

Lex Fridman (1:07:15.800)

I would be more hopeful.

Tim Urban (1:07:16.640)

Like if I thought it was human nature,

Lex Fridman (1:07:17.640)

I'd be more upset.

Tim Urban (1:07:19.720)

It's the two independent variables here,

Lex Fridman (1:07:23.120)

or that there's a fixed variable.

Tim Urban (1:07:24.480)

There's a constant, which is human nature.

Lex Fridman (1:07:25.840)

And there's the independent variable environment

Lex Fridman (1:07:27.680)

and that it behaviors the dependent variable.

Lex Fridman (1:07:30.480)

I like that the thing that I think is bad

Tim Urban (1:07:32.360)

is the independent variable, the environment,

Lex Fridman (1:07:34.520)

which means I think we can,

Tim Urban (1:07:35.800)

the environment can get better.

Lex Fridman (1:07:36.840)

And there's a lot of things I can go into

Tim Urban (1:07:38.040)

about why the environment I think is bad,

Lex Fridman (1:07:39.800)

but I have hope because I think the thing that's bad for us

Tim Urban (1:07:42.760)

is something that can change.

Lex Fridman (1:07:44.480)

The first principles idea here is that most people

Tim Urban (1:07:47.520)

have the capacity to be a 0.7 to 0.9.

Lex Fridman (1:07:51.640)

If the environment is properly calibrated

Tim Urban (1:07:56.880)

with the right incentives.

Lex Fridman (1:07:57.960)

I think that, well, I think that maybe if we're all,

Tim Urban (1:08:00.160)

yeah, if we're all 0.5s,

Lex Fridman (1:08:01.680)

I think that environments can bring out our good side.

Tim Urban (1:08:05.480)

Yeah, so maybe we're all on some kind of distribution

Lex Fridman (1:08:08.880)

and the right environment can, yes,

Tim Urban (1:08:11.000)

can bring out our higher sides.

Lex Fridman (1:08:12.720)

And I think a lot of, in a lot of ways you could say it has.

Tim Urban (1:08:15.080)

I mean, the U.S. environment,

Lex Fridman (1:08:17.760)

we take for granted how the liberal laws

Lex Fridman (1:08:20.880)

and liberal environment that we live in.

Lex Fridman (1:08:23.000)

I mean, like in New York City, right?

Tim Urban (1:08:26.240)

If you walk down the street and you like assault someone,

Lex Fridman (1:08:29.360)

hey, if anyone sees you, they're probably gonna yell at you.

Tim Urban (1:08:31.000)

You might get your ass kicked by someone for doing that.

Lex Fridman (1:08:32.920)

You also might end up in jail, you know,

Tim Urban (1:08:35.640)

if it's security cameras and there's just norms,

Lex Fridman (1:08:38.040)

you know, we're all trained.

Lex Fridman (1:08:38.880)

That's what awful people do, right?

Lex Fridman (1:08:40.320)

So there's, it's not the human nature

Tim Urban (1:08:42.240)

doesn't have it in it to be like that.

Lex Fridman (1:08:44.280)

It's that this environment we're in has made that a much,

Tim Urban (1:08:47.480)

much, much smaller experience for people.

Lex Fridman (1:08:50.120)

There's so many examples like that where it's like,

Tim Urban (1:08:51.960)

man, you don't realize how much of the worst human nature

Lex Fridman (1:08:54.520)

is contained by our environment.

Tim Urban (1:08:56.200)

And, but I think that, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:08:58.800)

rapidly changing environment,

Tim Urban (1:09:00.240)

which is what we have right now, social media starts.

Lex Fridman (1:09:02.240)

I mean, what a seismic change to the environment.

Tim Urban (1:09:04.680)

There's a lot of examples like that,

Lex Fridman (1:09:05.760)

rapidly changing environment

Tim Urban (1:09:06.920)

can create rapidly changing behavior

Lex Fridman (1:09:09.240)

and wisdom sometimes can't keep up.

Lex Fridman (1:09:11.680)

And so we, you know, we can really kind of lose our grip

Lex Fridman (1:09:15.800)

on some of the good behavior.

Tim Urban (1:09:17.280)

Were you surprised by Elon's answer about brain transplants

Lex Fridman (1:09:21.760)

or Sam's about nuclear power or anything else?

Tim Urban (1:09:24.480)

Just...

Lex Fridman (1:09:25.320)

Sam's I think is, I have a friend,

Tim Urban (1:09:27.760)

Isabel Boumeke who has a,

Lex Fridman (1:09:29.800)

who's a nuclear power, you know, influencer.

Tim Urban (1:09:33.120)

I've become very convinced

Lex Fridman (1:09:34.920)

and I've not done my deep dive on this.

Lex Fridman (1:09:37.960)

But here's, in this case, this is,

Lex Fridman (1:09:39.920)

this is reasoning by analogy here.

Tim Urban (1:09:42.640)

The amount of really smart people I respect

Lex Fridman (1:09:45.120)

who all, who seem to have dug in,

Tim Urban (1:09:46.920)

who all say nuclear power is clearly a good option.

Lex Fridman (1:09:49.960)

It's obviously emission free, but you know,

Tim Urban (1:09:51.840)

the concerns about meltdowns and waste,

Lex Fridman (1:09:54.120)

they see that they're completely overblown.

Lex Fridman (1:09:56.840)

So judging from those people, secondary knowledge here,

Lex Fridman (1:10:00.240)

I will say I'm a strong advocate.

Tim Urban (1:10:02.720)

I haven't done my own deep dive yet,

Lex Fridman (1:10:04.200)

but it does seem like a little bit odd

Tim Urban (1:10:06.480)

that you've got people

Lex Fridman (1:10:08.200)

who are so concerned about climate change,

Tim Urban (1:10:11.880)

who have, it seems like it's kind of an ideology

Lex Fridman (1:10:15.320)

where nuclear power doesn't fit

Tim Urban (1:10:17.160)

rather than rational, you know, fear of climate change

Lex Fridman (1:10:20.320)

that somehow is anti nuclear power.

Tim Urban (1:10:22.160)

It just, yeah.

Lex Fridman (1:10:23.160)

I personally am uncomfortably reasoning by analogy

Tim Urban (1:10:26.600)

with climate change.

Lex Fridman (1:10:27.920)

I've actually have not done a deep dive myself.

Tim Urban (1:10:29.680)

Me neither, because it's so,

Lex Fridman (1:10:31.800)

man, it seems like a deep dive.

Lex Fridman (1:10:33.280)

And my reasoning by analogy there

Lex Fridman (1:10:37.200)

currently has me thinking it's a truly existential thing,

Lex Fridman (1:10:40.600)

but feeling hopeful.

Lex Fridman (1:10:41.800)

So let me, this is me speaking

Lex Fridman (1:10:44.320)

and this is speaking from a person

Lex Fridman (1:10:45.720)

who's not done the deep dive.

Tim Urban (1:10:48.440)

I'm a little suspicious

Lex Fridman (1:10:50.480)

of the amount of fear mongering going on.

Tim Urban (1:10:52.920)

Especially over the past couple of years,

Lex Fridman (1:10:54.680)

I've gotten uncomfortable with fear mongering

Tim Urban (1:10:56.600)

in all walks of life.

Lex Fridman (1:10:59.120)

There's way too many people interested

Tim Urban (1:11:01.480)

in manipulating the populace with fear.

Lex Fridman (1:11:04.200)

And so I don't like it.

Tim Urban (1:11:05.440)

I should probably do a deep dive

Lex Fridman (1:11:06.880)

because to me it's, well, the big problem

Tim Urban (1:11:11.480)

with the opposition to climate change

Lex Fridman (1:11:13.120)

or whatever the fear mongering is

Tim Urban (1:11:15.120)

that it also grows the skepticism in science broadly.

Lex Fridman (1:11:19.720)

It's like, and that,

Lex Fridman (1:11:20.920)

so I need to make sure I do that deep dive.

Lex Fridman (1:11:23.440)

I have listened to a few folks

Tim Urban (1:11:25.080)

who kind of criticize the fear mongering

Lex Fridman (1:11:27.800)

and all those kinds of things,

Lex Fridman (1:11:29.080)

but they're few and far between.

Lex Fridman (1:11:30.800)

And so it's like, all right, what is the truth here?

Lex Fridman (1:11:33.760)

And it feels lazy, but it also feels like

Lex Fridman (1:11:36.120)

it's hard to get to the,

Tim Urban (1:11:38.480)

like there's a lot of kind of activists talking about idea,

Lex Fridman (1:11:43.040)

versus like sources of objective,

Tim Urban (1:11:48.640)

like calm first principles type reasoning.

Lex Fridman (1:11:52.480)

Like one of the things,

Tim Urban (1:11:54.120)

I know it's supposed to be a very big problem,

Lex Fridman (1:11:57.880)

but when people talk about catastrophic effects

Tim Urban (1:12:00.000)

of climate change,

Lex Fridman (1:12:01.680)

I haven't been able to like see really great deep analysis

Tim Urban (1:12:06.360)

of what that looks like in 10, 20, 30 years,

Lex Fridman (1:12:09.480)

raising rising sea levels.

Lex Fridman (1:12:12.400)

What are the models of how that changes human behavior,

Lex Fridman (1:12:17.000)

society, what are the things that happen?

Tim Urban (1:12:19.280)

There's going to be constraints on the resources

Lex Fridman (1:12:21.640)

and people are gonna have to move around.

Tim Urban (1:12:23.360)

This is happening gradually.

Lex Fridman (1:12:24.920)

Are we gonna be able to respond to this?

Lex Fridman (1:12:26.720)

How would we respond to this?

Lex Fridman (1:12:27.840)

What are the best,

Tim Urban (1:12:28.920)

like, what are the best models

Lex Fridman (1:12:30.400)

for how everything goes wrong?

Tim Urban (1:12:32.280)

Again, I was, this is a question I keep starting

Lex Fridman (1:12:36.200)

to ask myself without doing any research,

Tim Urban (1:12:38.640)

like motivating myself to get up to this deep dive

Lex Fridman (1:12:43.400)

that I feel is deep,

Tim Urban (1:12:45.040)

just watching people not do a great job

Lex Fridman (1:12:47.200)

with that kind of modeling with the pandemic

Lex Fridman (1:12:49.480)

and sort of being caught off guard and wondering,

Lex Fridman (1:12:52.640)

okay, if we're not good with this pandemic,

Lex Fridman (1:12:55.120)

how are we going to respond to other kinds of tragedies?

Lex Fridman (1:12:57.560)

Well, this is part of why I wrote the book.

Tim Urban (1:12:59.400)

Cause I said, we're going to have more and more of these,

Lex Fridman (1:13:04.200)

like big collective, what should we do here situations?

Tim Urban (1:13:08.160)

Whether it's, how about when, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:13:09.680)

we're probably not that far away

Tim Urban (1:13:10.720)

from people being able to go and decide the IQ of their kid

Lex Fridman (1:13:14.480)

or like, you know, make a bunch of embryos

Lex Fridman (1:13:15.920)

and actually pick the highest IQ.

Lex Fridman (1:13:18.640)

Can possibly go wrong.

Tim Urban (1:13:19.960)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (1:13:20.800)

And also like, imagine the political sides of that

Lex Fridman (1:13:22.960)

and like something that only wealthy people can afford at

Lex Fridman (1:13:25.160)

first and just the nightmare, right?

Tim Urban (1:13:27.320)

We need to be able to have our wits about us as a species

Lex Fridman (1:13:29.600)

where we can actually get into a topic like that

Lex Fridman (1:13:32.840)

and come up with where the collective brain can be smart.

Lex Fridman (1:13:36.680)

I think that there are certain topics

Tim Urban (1:13:39.360)

where I think of this and this is again,

Lex Fridman (1:13:41.240)

another simplistic model, but I think it works

Lex Fridman (1:13:43.080)

is that there's a higher mind and a primitive mind, right?

Lex Fridman (1:13:45.200)

You can, you know, in your head

Lex Fridman (1:13:47.200)

and these team up with others.

Lex Fridman (1:13:48.880)

So when the higher minds are in a higher mind

Tim Urban (1:13:50.800)

is more rational and puts out ideas

Lex Fridman (1:13:52.960)

that it's not attached to.

Lex Fridman (1:13:54.000)

And so it can change its mind easily

Lex Fridman (1:13:56.400)

cause it's just an idea and the higher mind

Tim Urban (1:13:58.440)

can get criticized.

Lex Fridman (1:14:00.360)

Their ideas can get criticized and it's no big deal.

Lex Fridman (1:14:02.840)

And so when the higher minds team up,

Lex Fridman (1:14:05.000)

it's like all these people in the room,

Tim Urban (1:14:06.440)

like throwing out ideas and kicking them

Lex Fridman (1:14:07.880)

and one idea goes out and everyone criticizes it,

Tim Urban (1:14:10.000)

which is like, you know, shooting bows and arrows at it.

Lex Fridman (1:14:11.760)

And the truth, the true idea is, you know,

Tim Urban (1:14:13.960)

the bow, the arrows bounce off and it's so, okay,

Lex Fridman (1:14:16.000)

it rises up and the other ones get shot down.

Lex Fridman (1:14:18.280)

So it's this incredible system.

Lex Fridman (1:14:19.520)

This is what, you know,

Tim Urban (1:14:20.360)

this is what good science institution is,

Lex Fridman (1:14:22.480)

is, you know, someone puts out a thing,

Tim Urban (1:14:24.000)

criticism arrows come at it and, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:14:26.240)

most of them fall and the needle is in the haystack

Lex Fridman (1:14:29.000)

end up rising up, right?

Lex Fridman (1:14:30.040)

Incredible mechanism.

Lex Fridman (1:14:30.920)

So what that's happening is a bunch of people,

Lex Fridman (1:14:32.480)

a bunch of flawed medium scientists

Tim Urban (1:14:34.760)

are creating super intelligence.

Lex Fridman (1:14:38.800)

Then there's the primitive mind,

Tim Urban (1:14:40.440)

which, you know, is the more limbic system part of our brain.

Lex Fridman (1:14:44.120)

It's the part of us that is very much not living in 2021.

Tim Urban (1:14:48.680)

It's living many tens of thousands of years ago.

Lex Fridman (1:14:51.280)

And it does not treat ideas like this separate thing.

Tim Urban (1:14:54.240)

It identifies with its ideas.

Lex Fridman (1:14:56.320)

It only gets involved when it finds an idea sacred.

Tim Urban (1:14:59.880)

It starts holding an idea sacred and it starts identifying.

Lex Fridman (1:15:02.040)

So what happens is they team up too.

Lex Fridman (1:15:04.280)

And so when you have a topic that a bunch of primitive,

Lex Fridman (1:15:08.280)

that really rouses a bunch of primitive minds,

Tim Urban (1:15:13.000)

it quickly, the primitive minds team up

Lex Fridman (1:15:14.880)

and they create an echo chamber

Tim Urban (1:15:16.600)

where suddenly no one can criticize this.

Lex Fridman (1:15:18.400)

And in fact, if it's powerful enough,

Tim Urban (1:15:20.640)

people outside the community, you can,

Lex Fridman (1:15:22.040)

no one can criticize it.

Tim Urban (1:15:22.880)

We will get your paper retracted.

Lex Fridman (1:15:23.960)

We will get you fired, right?

Tim Urban (1:15:25.760)

That's not higher mind behavior.

Lex Fridman (1:15:27.040)

That is crazy primitive mind.

Lex Fridman (1:15:28.520)

And so now what happens is the collective

Lex Fridman (1:15:30.520)

becomes dumber than an individual,

Tim Urban (1:15:32.560)

a dumber than a reason, a single reasoning individual.

Lex Fridman (1:15:34.880)

You have this collective is suddenly attached

Tim Urban (1:15:37.040)

to this sacred scripture with the idea

Lex Fridman (1:15:40.720)

and they will not change their mind

Lex Fridman (1:15:43.160)

and they get dumber and dumber.

Lex Fridman (1:15:44.240)

And so climate change, what's worrisome

Tim Urban (1:15:47.240)

is that climate change has in many ways

Lex Fridman (1:15:49.480)

become a sacred topic,

Tim Urban (1:15:50.920)

where if you come up with a nuanced thing,

Lex Fridman (1:15:52.520)

you might get called branded a denier.

Lex Fridman (1:15:54.600)

So there goes the super intelligence,

Lex Fridman (1:15:57.640)

all the arrows, no arrows can be fired.

Lex Fridman (1:15:59.480)

But if you get called a denier,

Lex Fridman (1:16:01.000)

that's a social penalty for firing an arrow

Lex Fridman (1:16:03.440)

at a certain orthodoxy, right?

Lex Fridman (1:16:05.080)

And so what's happening is the big brain

Lex Fridman (1:16:06.880)

gets like frozen, right?

Lex Fridman (1:16:08.000)

And it becomes very stupid.

Tim Urban (1:16:08.880)

Now, you can also say that

Lex Fridman (1:16:10.520)

about a lot of other topics right now.

Tim Urban (1:16:14.920)

You just mentioned another one, I forget what it was,

Lex Fridman (1:16:16.560)

but that's also kind of like this.

Tim Urban (1:16:19.000)

The world of vaccine.

Lex Fridman (1:16:20.280)

Yeah, yeah, COVID, okay.

Lex Fridman (1:16:21.520)

And here's my point earlier is that

Lex Fridman (1:16:23.360)

what I see is that the political divide

Tim Urban (1:16:25.760)

has like a whirlpool that's pulling everything into it.

Lex Fridman (1:16:28.320)

And in that whirlpool, thinking is done

Tim Urban (1:16:32.000)

with the primitive mind tribes.

Lex Fridman (1:16:34.880)

And so I get, okay, obviously something like race,

Tim Urban (1:16:38.520)

that makes sense, that also right now,

Lex Fridman (1:16:40.240)

the topic of race, for example, or gender,

Tim Urban (1:16:42.160)

these things are in the whirlpool.

Lex Fridman (1:16:43.840)

But that at least is like, okay,

Tim Urban (1:16:45.680)

that's something that the primitive mind

Lex Fridman (1:16:47.080)

would always get really worked up about.

Tim Urban (1:16:49.160)

It taps into like our deepest kind of like primal selves.

Lex Fridman (1:16:54.080)

COVID, maybe it's COVID in a way too,

Lex Fridman (1:16:56.080)

but climate change, that should just be something

Lex Fridman (1:16:57.920)

that our rational brains are like,

Tim Urban (1:16:58.880)

let's solve this complex problem.

Lex Fridman (1:17:00.360)

But the problem is that it's all gotten sucked

Tim Urban (1:17:02.360)

into the red versus blue whirlpool.

Lex Fridman (1:17:04.280)

And once that happens,

Tim Urban (1:17:05.120)

it's in the hands of the primitive minds.

Lex Fridman (1:17:06.320)

And we're losing our ability to be wise together,

Tim Urban (1:17:09.160)

to make decisions.

Lex Fridman (1:17:10.680)

It's like the big species brain is like,

Tim Urban (1:17:13.360)

or the big American brain is like,

Lex Fridman (1:17:15.200)

drunk at the wheel right now.

Lex Fridman (1:17:16.760)

And we're about to go into our future

Lex Fridman (1:17:18.160)

with more and more big technologies,

Tim Urban (1:17:21.120)

scary things, we have to make big right decisions.

Lex Fridman (1:17:23.160)

And not, we're getting dumber as a collective.

Lex Fridman (1:17:26.040)

And that's part of this environmental problem.

Lex Fridman (1:17:28.400)

So within the space of technologists

Lex Fridman (1:17:30.320)

and the space of scientists, we should allow the arrows.

Lex Fridman (1:17:33.280)

That's one of the saddest things to me about,

Tim Urban (1:17:35.040)

is like the scientists, like I've seen arrogance.

Lex Fridman (1:17:39.960)

There's a lot of mechanisms that maintain the tribe.

Tim Urban (1:17:42.440)

It's the arrogance, it's how you built up this mechanism

Lex Fridman (1:17:46.520)

that defends, this wall that defends against the arrows.

Tim Urban (1:17:50.080)

It's arrogance, credentialism,

Lex Fridman (1:17:54.280)

like just ego, really.

Lex Fridman (1:17:58.200)

And then just, it protects you

Lex Fridman (1:17:59.560)

from actually challenging your own ideas.

Tim Urban (1:18:01.960)

This ideal of science that makes science beautiful.

Lex Fridman (1:18:05.640)

In a time of fear, and in a time of division

Tim Urban (1:18:09.600)

created by perhaps politicians that leverage the fear,

Lex Fridman (1:18:12.880)

it, like you said, makes the whole system dumber.

Tim Urban (1:18:16.200)

The science system dumber,

Lex Fridman (1:18:19.160)

the tech developer system dumber,

Tim Urban (1:18:22.680)

if they don't allow the challenging of ideas.

Lex Fridman (1:18:24.840)

What's really bad is that like,

Tim Urban (1:18:27.320)

in a normal environment,

Lex Fridman (1:18:28.600)

you're always gonna have echo chambers.

Lex Fridman (1:18:30.560)

So what's the opposite of an echo chamber?

Lex Fridman (1:18:32.320)

I created a term for it, because I think we need it,

Lex Fridman (1:18:34.120)

which is called an idea lab, an idea lab, right?

Lex Fridman (1:18:36.520)

It's like people treat, it's like people act like scientists,

Tim Urban (1:18:38.920)

even if they're not doing science,

Lex Fridman (1:18:40.440)

they just treat their ideas like science experiments

Lex Fridman (1:18:43.400)

and they toss them out there and everyone disagrees.

Lex Fridman (1:18:45.320)

And disagreement is like the game.

Tim Urban (1:18:46.880)

Everyone likes to disagree.

Lex Fridman (1:18:48.360)

Certain texts thread where everyone is just saying,

Tim Urban (1:18:50.880)

it's almost like someone throws something out

Lex Fridman (1:18:52.240)

and just it's an impulse for the rest of the group to say,

Tim Urban (1:18:54.120)

I think you're being like overly general there.

Lex Fridman (1:18:56.600)

Or I think like, aren't you kind of being,

Tim Urban (1:18:58.320)

I think that's like your bias showing.

Lex Fridman (1:19:00.160)

And it's like, no one's getting offended

Tim Urban (1:19:01.560)

because it's like, we're all just messing,

Lex Fridman (1:19:02.760)

we all of course respect each other, obviously.

Tim Urban (1:19:04.840)

We're just, you know, trashing each other's ideas

Lex Fridman (1:19:08.440)

and that the whole group becomes smarter.

Tim Urban (1:19:10.600)

You're always gonna have idea labs and echo chambers,

Lex Fridman (1:19:12.600)

right, in different communities.

Lex Fridman (1:19:13.520)

And most of us participate in both of them.

Lex Fridman (1:19:15.640)

You know, maybe in your marriage is a great idea lab,

Tim Urban (1:19:18.000)

you love to disagree with your spouse and maybe in,

Lex Fridman (1:19:20.800)

but this group of friends or your family at home,

Tim Urban (1:19:23.000)

you know, in front of that sister,

Lex Fridman (1:19:24.400)

you do not bring up politics

Tim Urban (1:19:25.600)

because she's now enforced when that happens,

Lex Fridman (1:19:27.520)

her bullying is forcing the whole room

Tim Urban (1:19:30.240)

to be an echo chamber to appease her.

Lex Fridman (1:19:32.840)

Now, what scares me is that usually have these things

Tim Urban (1:19:35.280)

existing kind of in bubbles.

Lex Fridman (1:19:36.880)

And usually there's like an age

Tim Urban (1:19:39.000)

have their natural defenses against each other.

Lex Fridman (1:19:40.560)

So an echo chamber person stays in their echo chamber.

Tim Urban (1:19:44.200)

They don't like, they will cut you out.

Lex Fridman (1:19:45.680)

They don't like to be friends with people

Tim Urban (1:19:47.240)

who disagree with them.

Lex Fridman (1:19:48.080)

You notice that they will cut you out.

Tim Urban (1:19:49.120)

They'll cut out their parents

Lex Fridman (1:19:50.200)

if they voted for Trump or whatever, right?

Lex Fridman (1:19:51.560)

So that's how they do it.

Lex Fridman (1:19:54.400)

They will say, I'm going to stay inside

Tim Urban (1:19:56.000)

of an echo chamber safely.

Lex Fridman (1:19:57.120)

So my ideas, which I identify with

Tim Urban (1:20:00.680)

because my primitive mind is doing the thinking

Lex Fridman (1:20:02.400)

are not going to ever have to get challenged

Tim Urban (1:20:04.040)

because it feels so scary and awful for that to happen.

Lex Fridman (1:20:07.320)

But if they leave and they go into an idea lab environment,

Lex Fridman (1:20:09.560)

they're going to, people are going to say, what?

Lex Fridman (1:20:10.640)

No, they're going to disagree.

Lex Fridman (1:20:11.760)

And they're going to say,

Lex Fridman (1:20:12.600)

and the person's going to try to bully them.

Tim Urban (1:20:13.680)

They're going to say, that's really offensive.

Lex Fridman (1:20:15.600)

And people are going to say, no, it's not.

Lex Fridman (1:20:16.520)

And they're going to immediately say

Lex Fridman (1:20:17.920)

these people are assholes, right?

Lex Fridman (1:20:19.120)

So the echo chamber person,

Lex Fridman (1:20:21.840)

it doesn't have much power once they leave the echo chamber.

Tim Urban (1:20:24.600)

Likewise, the idea lab person,

Lex Fridman (1:20:26.120)

they have this great environment,

Lex Fridman (1:20:27.240)

but if they go into an echo chamber

Lex Fridman (1:20:28.560)

where everyone else is, and they do that,

Tim Urban (1:20:29.960)

they will get kicked out of the group.

Lex Fridman (1:20:30.960)

They will get branded as something,

Tim Urban (1:20:32.440)

a denier, a racist, a right winger, a radical,

Lex Fridman (1:20:36.640)

these nasty words.

Tim Urban (1:20:39.960)

The thing that I don't like right now

Lex Fridman (1:20:41.400)

is that the echo chambers have found ways

Tim Urban (1:20:44.720)

to forcefully expand into places

Lex Fridman (1:20:48.400)

that normally have a pretty good immune system

Tim Urban (1:20:51.240)

against echo chambers, like universities,

Lex Fridman (1:20:53.440)

like science journals,

Tim Urban (1:20:54.960)

places where usually it's like,

Lex Fridman (1:20:56.240)

there's a strong idea lab culture there, veritas.

Tim Urban (1:20:59.000)

You know, that's an idea lab slogan.

Lex Fridman (1:21:02.680)

You have is that these people have found a way to,

Tim Urban (1:21:06.120)

a lot of people have found a way

Lex Fridman (1:21:07.840)

to actually go out of their thing

Lex Fridman (1:21:09.000)

and keep their echo chamber

Lex Fridman (1:21:10.160)

by making sure that everyone is scared

Tim Urban (1:21:11.920)

because they can punish anyone,

Lex Fridman (1:21:13.000)

whether you're in their community or not.

Lex Fridman (1:21:15.000)

So that's all brilliantly put.

Lex Fridman (1:21:19.120)

When's the book coming out?

Lex Fridman (1:21:20.720)

Any idea?

Lex Fridman (1:21:21.560)

June, July, we're not quite sure yet.

Tim Urban (1:21:24.000)

Okay, I can't wait.

Lex Fridman (1:21:25.360)

Thanks. It's awesome.

Lex Fridman (1:21:26.360)

Do you have a title yet or you can't talk about that?

Lex Fridman (1:21:28.160)

Still working on it.

Tim Urban (1:21:29.000)

Okay.

Lex Fridman (1:21:30.520)

If it's okay, just a couple of questions from Mailbag.

Tim Urban (1:21:32.920)

I just love these.

Lex Fridman (1:21:34.280)

I would love to hear you riff on these.

Lex Fridman (1:21:37.440)

So one is about film and music.

Lex Fridman (1:21:39.560)

Why do we prefer to watch, the question goes,

Lex Fridman (1:21:41.960)

why do we prefer to watch a film

Lex Fridman (1:21:43.800)

we haven't watched before,

Lex Fridman (1:21:45.560)

but we want to listen to songs

Lex Fridman (1:21:47.560)

that we have heard hundreds of times?

Tim Urban (1:21:50.080)

This question and your answer

Lex Fridman (1:21:51.840)

really started to make me think like,

Tim Urban (1:21:53.280)

yeah, that's true.

Lex Fridman (1:21:54.440)

That's really interesting.

Tim Urban (1:21:55.760)

Like we draw that line somehow.

Lex Fridman (1:21:59.080)

So what's the answer?

Lex Fridman (1:22:00.240)

So I think, let's use these two minds again.

Lex Fridman (1:22:02.720)

I think that when your higher mind

Tim Urban (1:22:04.440)

is the one who's taking something in

Lex Fridman (1:22:06.160)

and they're really interested in,

Lex Fridman (1:22:07.400)

what are the lyrics or I'm gonna learn something

Lex Fridman (1:22:08.760)

or reading a book or whatever.

Lex Fridman (1:22:11.480)

And the higher mind is trying to get information.

Lex Fridman (1:22:15.840)

And once it has it,

Tim Urban (1:22:16.680)

there's no point in listening to it again.

Lex Fridman (1:22:17.920)

It has the information.

Tim Urban (1:22:20.080)

Your rational brain is like, I got it.

Lex Fridman (1:22:23.600)

But when you eat a good meal or have sex or whatever,

Tim Urban (1:22:27.440)

that's something you can do again and again,

Lex Fridman (1:22:28.800)

because it actually, your primitive brain loves it.

Lex Fridman (1:22:32.720)

And it never gets bored of things that it loves.

Lex Fridman (1:22:35.360)

So I think music is a very primal thing.

Tim Urban (1:22:38.120)

I think music goes right into our primitive brain.

Lex Fridman (1:22:40.480)

A lot, I think it's of course, it's a collaboration.

Tim Urban (1:22:43.880)

Your rational brain is absorbing the actual message.

Lex Fridman (1:22:47.480)

But I think it's all about emotions

Lex Fridman (1:22:48.920)

and even more than emotions,

Lex Fridman (1:22:50.040)

it literally like the music taps into like some very,

Tim Urban (1:22:53.400)

very deep, primal part of us.

Lex Fridman (1:22:59.120)

And so when you hear a song once,

Tim Urban (1:23:02.040)

even some of your favorite songs,

Lex Fridman (1:23:03.240)

the first time you heard it,

Tim Urban (1:23:04.080)

you were like, I guess that's kind of catchy.

Lex Fridman (1:23:05.840)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (1:23:07.320)

And then you end up loving it on the 10th listen.

Lex Fridman (1:23:10.200)

But sometimes you even don't even like a song.

Tim Urban (1:23:11.560)

You're like, oh, this song sucks.

Lex Fridman (1:23:12.480)

But suddenly you find yourself on the 40th time

Tim Urban (1:23:15.200)

because it's on the radio all the time,

Lex Fridman (1:23:16.200)

just kind of being like, oh, I love this song.

Lex Fridman (1:23:17.360)

And you're like, wait, I hated the song.

Lex Fridman (1:23:19.640)

And what's happening is that the sound is actually,

Tim Urban (1:23:23.000)

the music's actually carving a pathway in your brain

Lex Fridman (1:23:27.160)

and it's a dance.

Lex Fridman (1:23:29.120)

And when your brain knows what's coming,

Lex Fridman (1:23:30.920)

it can dance, it knows the steps.

Lex Fridman (1:23:33.040)

So your brain is your internal kind of,

Lex Fridman (1:23:35.720)

your brain is actually dancing with the music

Lex Fridman (1:23:37.520)

and it knows the steps and it can anticipate.

Lex Fridman (1:23:40.360)

And so there's something about knowing,

Tim Urban (1:23:45.040)

having memorized the song

Lex Fridman (1:23:46.120)

that makes it incredibly enjoyable to us.

Lex Fridman (1:23:48.920)

But when we hear it for the first time,

Lex Fridman (1:23:49.960)

we don't know where it's gonna go.

Tim Urban (1:23:50.800)

We're like an awkward dancer.

Lex Fridman (1:23:51.640)

We don't know the steps and your primitive brain

Tim Urban (1:23:53.360)

can't really have that much fun yet.

Lex Fridman (1:23:55.280)

That's how I feel.

Lex Fridman (1:23:56.120)

And in the movies, that's less primitive.

Lex Fridman (1:23:59.800)

That's the story you're taking in.

Lex Fridman (1:24:03.640)

But a really good movie that we really love,

Lex Fridman (1:24:05.680)

often we will watch it like 12 times.

Tim Urban (1:24:07.600)

It's still like it, not that many,

Lex Fridman (1:24:09.200)

but versus if you're watching a talk show, right?

Tim Urban (1:24:11.880)

If you're listening to one of your podcasts,

Lex Fridman (1:24:14.160)

as a perfect example,

Tim Urban (1:24:15.280)

there's not many people that will listen

Lex Fridman (1:24:16.320)

to one of your podcasts,

Tim Urban (1:24:17.720)

no matter how good it is, 12 times.

Lex Fridman (1:24:19.040)

Because once you've got it, you've got it.

Tim Urban (1:24:21.360)

It's a form of information that's very higher mind focused.

Lex Fridman (1:24:25.320)

That's how I read it.

Tim Urban (1:24:26.160)

Well, the funny thing is there is people

Lex Fridman (1:24:28.760)

that listen to a podcast episode many, many times.

Lex Fridman (1:24:32.200)

And often I think the reason for that

Lex Fridman (1:24:33.960)

is not because of the information, is the chemistry,

Tim Urban (1:24:36.120)

is the music of the conversation.

Lex Fridman (1:24:38.080)

So it's not the actual.

Tim Urban (1:24:38.920)

It's the art of it they like.

Lex Fridman (1:24:40.280)

Yeah, they'll fall in love with some kind of person,

Tim Urban (1:24:42.360)

some weird personality, and they'll just be listening to,

Lex Fridman (1:24:45.320)

they'll be captivated by the beat of that kind of person.

Tim Urban (1:24:47.800)

Or like a standup comic.

Lex Fridman (1:24:48.640)

I've watched like certain things,

Tim Urban (1:24:49.720)

like episodes like 20 times, even though I, you know.

Lex Fridman (1:24:53.680)

I have to ask you about the wizard hat.

Tim Urban (1:24:56.440)

You had a blog about Neuralink.

Lex Fridman (1:24:58.080)

I got a chance to visit Neuralink a couple of times,

Tim Urban (1:25:00.520)

hanging out with those folks, that was one of the pieces

Lex Fridman (1:25:05.680)

of writing you did that like changes culture

Lex Fridman (1:25:09.280)

and changes the way people think about a thing.

Lex Fridman (1:25:13.520)

The ridiculousness of your stick figure drawings

Tim Urban (1:25:15.880)

are somehow, it's like calling the origin

Lex Fridman (1:25:21.440)

of the universe the Big Bang.

Tim Urban (1:25:23.320)

It's a silly title, but it somehow sticks

Lex Fridman (1:25:25.840)

to be the representative of that.

Lex Fridman (1:25:28.960)

And the same way the wizard hat for the Neuralink

Lex Fridman (1:25:31.000)

is somehow it was a really powerful way to explain that.

Tim Urban (1:25:35.480)

You actually proposed that the man of the year

Lex Fridman (1:25:37.800)

cover of Time should be.

Tim Urban (1:25:39.760)

One of my drawings.

Lex Fridman (1:25:40.600)

One of your drawings.

Tim Urban (1:25:41.440)

Yes, yes.

Lex Fridman (1:25:42.280)

It's an outrage that it wasn't.

Tim Urban (1:25:43.280)

It wasn't.

Lex Fridman (1:25:44.200)

Okay, so what are your thoughts about like all those years

Lex Fridman (1:25:49.080)

later about Neuralink?

Lex Fridman (1:25:50.760)

Do you find this idea, like what excites you about it?

Lex Fridman (1:25:54.280)

Is it the big long term philosophical things?

Lex Fridman (1:25:56.880)

Is it the practical things?

Lex Fridman (1:25:58.360)

Do you think it's super difficult to do

Lex Fridman (1:26:00.560)

on the neurosurgery side

Lex Fridman (1:26:02.120)

and the material engineering, the robotics side?

Lex Fridman (1:26:05.120)

Or do you think the machine learning side

Tim Urban (1:26:08.200)

for the brain computer interfaces

Lex Fridman (1:26:09.520)

where they get to learn about each other,

Tim Urban (1:26:11.240)

all that kind of stuff.

Lex Fridman (1:26:12.080)

I would just love to get your thoughts

Tim Urban (1:26:13.320)

because you're one of the people

Lex Fridman (1:26:14.280)

that really considered this problem,

Tim Urban (1:26:17.060)

really studied it, brain computer interfaces.

Lex Fridman (1:26:19.640)

I mean, I'm super excited about it.

Tim Urban (1:26:21.760)

It's a, I really think it's actually

Lex Fridman (1:26:24.800)

Elon's most ambitious thing.

Tim Urban (1:26:27.400)

More than colonizing Mars

Lex Fridman (1:26:28.720)

because that's just a bunch of people going somewhere,

Tim Urban (1:26:31.160)

even though it's somewhere far.

Lex Fridman (1:26:33.160)

Neuralink is changing what a person is eventually.

Tim Urban (1:26:37.680)

Now, I think that Neuralink engineers and Elon himself

Lex Fridman (1:26:42.420)

would all be the first to admit that it is a maybe

Tim Urban (1:26:45.120)

that whether they can do their goals here.

Lex Fridman (1:26:46.920)

I mean, it is so crazy ambitious to try to,

Tim Urban (1:26:50.320)

even their eventual goals are,

Lex Fridman (1:26:52.280)

of course in the interim,

Tim Urban (1:26:53.960)

they have a higher probability

Lex Fridman (1:26:55.120)

of accomplishing smaller things,

Tim Urban (1:26:56.200)

which are still huge, like basically solving paralysis,

Lex Fridman (1:27:01.200)

strokes, Parkinson, things like that.

Tim Urban (1:27:02.640)

I mean, it can be unbelievable.

Lex Fridman (1:27:03.960)

And anyone who doesn't have one of these things,

Tim Urban (1:27:06.360)

like we might, everyone should be very happy

Lex Fridman (1:27:08.880)

about this kind of helping with different disabilities.

Lex Fridman (1:27:15.480)

But the thing that is like,

Lex Fridman (1:27:17.140)

so the grand goal is this augmentation

Tim Urban (1:27:21.480)

where you take someone who's totally healthy

Lex Fridman (1:27:23.600)

and you put a brain machine interface in any way

Tim Urban (1:27:26.240)

to give them superpowers.

Lex Fridman (1:27:29.080)

It's the possibilities if they can do this,

Tim Urban (1:27:32.280)

if they can really,

Lex Fridman (1:27:33.120)

so they've already shown that they are for real,

Lex Fridman (1:27:36.520)

but they've created this robot.

Lex Fridman (1:27:38.600)

Elon talks about like, it should be like LASIK,

Tim Urban (1:27:40.700)

where it's not,

Lex Fridman (1:27:42.040)

it shouldn't be something that needs a surgeon.

Tim Urban (1:27:44.240)

This shouldn't just be for rich people

Lex Fridman (1:27:46.520)

who have waited in line for six months.

Tim Urban (1:27:48.220)

It should be for anyone who can afford LASIK

Lex Fridman (1:27:50.280)

and eventually, hopefully something that isn't covered by

Tim Urban (1:27:53.160)

insurance or something that anyone can do.

Lex Fridman (1:27:56.320)

Something this big a deal should be something

Tim Urban (1:27:57.760)

that anyone can afford eventually.

Lex Fridman (1:28:00.200)

And when we have this, again,

Tim Urban (1:28:03.160)

I'm talking about a very advanced phase down the road.

Lex Fridman (1:28:05.720)

So maybe a less advanced phase,

Tim Urban (1:28:07.600)

just maybe right now,

Lex Fridman (1:28:11.000)

if you think about when you listen to a song,

Lex Fridman (1:28:13.260)

what's happening, is you actually hear the sound?

Lex Fridman (1:28:16.760)

Well, not really.

Tim Urban (1:28:18.600)

It's that the sound is coming out of the speaker.

Lex Fridman (1:28:22.260)

The speaker is vibrating.

Tim Urban (1:28:23.520)

It's vibrating air molecules.

Lex Fridman (1:28:25.080)

Those air molecules, you know,

Tim Urban (1:28:26.800)

get vibrated all the way to your head pressure wave.

Lex Fridman (1:28:31.740)

And then it vibrates your eardrum.

Tim Urban (1:28:34.500)

Your eardrum is really the speaker now in your head

Lex Fridman (1:28:37.060)

that then vibrates bones and fluid,

Tim Urban (1:28:40.320)

which then stimulates neurons in your auditory cortex,

Lex Fridman (1:28:44.840)

which give you the perception that you're hearing sound.

Tim Urban (1:28:49.800)

Now, if you think about that,

Lex Fridman (1:28:52.240)

do we really need to have a speaker to do that?

Tim Urban (1:28:55.120)

You could just somehow,

Lex Fridman (1:28:56.080)

if you had a little tiny thing

Tim Urban (1:28:56.920)

that could vibrate eardrums,

Lex Fridman (1:28:57.960)

you could do it that way.

Tim Urban (1:28:59.280)

That seems very hard.

Lex Fridman (1:29:00.880)

But really what you need,

Tim Urban (1:29:02.160)

if you go to the very end

Lex Fridman (1:29:03.240)

with a thing that really needs to happen,

Tim Urban (1:29:05.000)

is your auditory cortex neurons

Lex Fridman (1:29:07.080)

need to be stimulated in a certain way.

Tim Urban (1:29:09.640)

If you have a ton of Neuralink things in there,

Lex Fridman (1:29:11.920)

Neuralink electrodes,

Lex Fridman (1:29:13.320)

and they get really good at stimulating things,

Lex Fridman (1:29:15.920)

you could play a song in your head

Tim Urban (1:29:17.680)

that you hear that is not playing anywhere.

Lex Fridman (1:29:20.520)

There's no sound in the room,

Lex Fridman (1:29:21.920)

but you hear and no one else could.

Lex Fridman (1:29:23.720)

It's not like they can get close to your head and hear it.

Tim Urban (1:29:25.280)

There's no sound.

Lex Fridman (1:29:26.120)

They could not hear anything,

Lex Fridman (1:29:27.200)

but you hear sound.

Lex Fridman (1:29:28.360)

You can turn up.

Lex Fridman (1:29:29.180)

So you open your phone,

Lex Fridman (1:29:30.140)

you have the Neuralink app.

Tim Urban (1:29:31.320)

You open the Neuralink app,

Lex Fridman (1:29:32.640)

and or just Neuralink.

Lex Fridman (1:29:34.080)

So basically you can open your Spotify

Lex Fridman (1:29:35.600)

and you can play to your speaker,

Tim Urban (1:29:38.800)

you can play to your computer,

Lex Fridman (1:29:39.680)

you can play right out of your phone to your headphones,

Tim Urban (1:29:41.240)

or you can have a new one.

Lex Fridman (1:29:43.400)

You can play into your brain.

Lex Fridman (1:29:44.680)

And this is one of the earlier things.

Lex Fridman (1:29:47.160)

This is something that seems like really doable.

Lex Fridman (1:29:50.660)

So no more headphones.

Lex Fridman (1:29:52.280)

I always think it's so annoying

Tim Urban (1:29:53.300)

because I can leave the house with just my phone

Lex Fridman (1:29:56.760)

and nothing else,

Tim Urban (1:29:57.600)

or even just an Apple watch.

Lex Fridman (1:29:58.440)

But there's always this one thing,

Tim Urban (1:29:59.280)

I'm like, and headphones.

Lex Fridman (1:30:00.120)

You do need your headphones, right?

Lex Fridman (1:30:01.440)

So I feel like that'll be the end of that.

Lex Fridman (1:30:03.100)

But there's so many things that you,

Lex Fridman (1:30:04.600)

and you keep going,

Lex Fridman (1:30:06.260)

the ability to think together.

Tim Urban (1:30:08.560)

You can talk about like super brains.

Lex Fridman (1:30:10.320)

I mean, one of the examples Elon uses

Tim Urban (1:30:12.760)

is that the low bandwidth of speech.

Lex Fridman (1:30:16.040)

If I go to a movie and I come out of a scary movie

Lex Fridman (1:30:19.340)

and you say, how was it?

Lex Fridman (1:30:20.180)

I said, oh, it was terrifying.

Lex Fridman (1:30:21.160)

Well, what did I just do?

Lex Fridman (1:30:22.960)

I just gave you,

Tim Urban (1:30:24.520)

I had five buckets I could have given you.

Lex Fridman (1:30:26.440)

One was horrifying, terrifying, scary, eerie, creepy,

Tim Urban (1:30:29.480)

whatever.

Lex Fridman (1:30:30.640)

That's about it.

Lex Fridman (1:30:31.880)

And I had a much more nuanced experience than that.

Lex Fridman (1:30:36.240)

And all I have is these words, right?

Lex Fridman (1:30:39.560)

And so instead I just hand you the bucket.

Lex Fridman (1:30:41.920)

I put the stuff in the bucket and give it to you,

Lex Fridman (1:30:44.160)

but all you have is the bucket.

Lex Fridman (1:30:45.440)

You just have to guess what I put into that bucket.

Tim Urban (1:30:47.720)

All you can do is look at the label of the bucket and say,

Lex Fridman (1:30:50.480)

when I say terrifying, here's what I mean.

Lex Fridman (1:30:52.860)

So the point is it's very lossy.

Lex Fridman (1:30:55.120)

I had all this nuanced information

Tim Urban (1:30:57.300)

of what I thought of the movie.

Lex Fridman (1:30:58.140)

And I'm sending you a very low res package

Tim Urban (1:31:00.680)

that you're gonna now guess

Lex Fridman (1:31:02.000)

what the high res thing looked like.

Tim Urban (1:31:04.060)

That's language in general.

Lex Fridman (1:31:05.680)

Our thoughts are much more nuanced.

Tim Urban (1:31:07.140)

We can think to each other.

Lex Fridman (1:31:08.760)

We can do amazing things.

Tim Urban (1:31:09.720)

We could A, have a brainstorm that doesn't feel like,

Lex Fridman (1:31:11.600)

oh, we're not talking in each other's heads.

Tim Urban (1:31:13.080)

Not just that I hear your voice.

Lex Fridman (1:31:14.480)

No, no, no, we are just thinking.

Tim Urban (1:31:15.760)

No words are being said internally or externally.

Lex Fridman (1:31:19.840)

The two brains are literally collaborating.

Tim Urban (1:31:21.680)

It's something, it's a skill.

Lex Fridman (1:31:22.520)

I'm sure we'd have to get good at it.

Tim Urban (1:31:23.360)

I'm sure young kids will be great at it

Lex Fridman (1:31:25.080)

and old people will be bad.

Lex Fridman (1:31:26.480)

But you think together and together you're like,

Lex Fridman (1:31:28.440)

oh, had the joint epiphany.

Lex Fridman (1:31:29.600)

And now how about eight people in a room doing it, right?

Lex Fridman (1:31:31.760)

So it gets, you know, there's other examples.

Lex Fridman (1:31:34.040)

How about when you're a dress designer or a bridge designer

Lex Fridman (1:31:37.540)

and you want to show people what your dress looks like.

Tim Urban (1:31:40.760)

Well, right now you gotta sketch it for a long time.

Lex Fridman (1:31:42.480)

Here, just beam it onto the screen from your head.

Lex Fridman (1:31:44.320)

So you can picture it.

Lex Fridman (1:31:45.160)

If, you know, if you can picture a tree in your head,

Tim Urban (1:31:47.400)

well, you can just suddenly,

Lex Fridman (1:31:48.840)

whatever's in your head, you can be pictured.

Lex Fridman (1:31:50.080)

So we'll have to get very good at it, right?

Lex Fridman (1:31:52.000)

And take a skill, right?

Tim Urban (1:31:52.920)

You know, you're gonna have to,

Lex Fridman (1:31:54.240)

but the possibilities, my God.

Tim Urban (1:31:56.240)

Talk about like, I feel like if that works,

Lex Fridman (1:31:58.960)

if we really do have that as something,

Tim Urban (1:32:01.440)

I think it'll almost be like a new ADBC line.

Lex Fridman (1:32:04.280)

It's such a big change that the idea of like anyone living

Tim Urban (1:32:07.280)

before everyone had brain machine interfaces

Lex Fridman (1:32:09.320)

is living in like before the common era.

Tim Urban (1:32:12.820)

It's that level of like big change if it can work.

Lex Fridman (1:32:16.080)

Yeah, and like a replay of memories,

Tim Urban (1:32:18.000)

just replaying stuff in your head.

Lex Fridman (1:32:19.360)

Oh my God, yeah.

Lex Fridman (1:32:20.640)

And copying, you know, you can hopefully copy memories

Lex Fridman (1:32:23.040)

onto other things and you don't have to just rely on your,

Tim Urban (1:32:26.240)

you know, your wet circuitry.

Lex Fridman (1:32:27.920)

It does make me sad because you're right.

Tim Urban (1:32:29.640)

The brain is incredibly neuroplastic

Lex Fridman (1:32:32.080)

and so it can adjust, it can learn how to do this.

Tim Urban (1:32:34.620)

I think it'll be a skill.

Lex Fridman (1:32:36.080)

Or probably you and I will be too old to truly learn.

Tim Urban (1:32:38.440)

Well, maybe we can get, there'll be great trainings.

Lex Fridman (1:32:40.400)

You know, I'm spending the next three months

Tim Urban (1:32:42.040)

in like a, you know, one of the Neuralink trainings.

Lex Fridman (1:32:44.880)

But it'll still be a bit of like grandpa, I can't.

Tim Urban (1:32:47.560)

Definitely.

Lex Fridman (1:32:48.400)

This is, you know, I was thinking,

Lex Fridman (1:32:49.220)

how am I gonna be old?

Lex Fridman (1:32:50.060)

I'm like, no, I'm gonna be great at the new phones.

Lex Fridman (1:32:51.520)

It's like, how can it be the phones?

Lex Fridman (1:32:53.020)

It's gonna be that, you know,

Tim Urban (1:32:54.360)

the kid's gonna be thinking to me.

Lex Fridman (1:32:55.480)

I'm gonna be like, I just, can you just talk please?

Lex Fridman (1:32:58.000)

And they're gonna be like, okay, I'll just talk.

Lex Fridman (1:32:59.480)

And they're gonna, so that'll be the equivalent of,

Tim Urban (1:33:02.280)

you know, yelling to your grandparents today.

Lex Fridman (1:33:04.400)

I really suspect, I don't know what your thoughts are,

Lex Fridman (1:33:06.840)

but I grew up in a time when physical contact interaction

Lex Fridman (1:33:11.080)

was valuable.

Tim Urban (1:33:12.120)

I just feel like that's going to go the way

Lex Fridman (1:33:15.640)

that's gonna disappear.

Lex Fridman (1:33:17.080)

What, why?

Lex Fridman (1:33:17.920)

I mean, is there anything more intimate

Lex Fridman (1:33:19.120)

than thinking with each other?

Lex Fridman (1:33:20.200)

I mean, that's, you talk about, you know,

Tim Urban (1:33:21.480)

once we were all doing that, it might feel like, man,

Lex Fridman (1:33:23.080)

everyone was so isolated from each other so far.

Tim Urban (1:33:24.840)

Yeah, sorry.

Lex Fridman (1:33:25.680)

So I didn't say that intimacy disappears.

Tim Urban (1:33:27.560)

I just meant physical, having to be in the same,

Lex Fridman (1:33:29.580)

having to touch each other.

Tim Urban (1:33:31.600)

If people like that, if it is important,

Lex Fridman (1:33:34.840)

won't there be whole waves of people start to say,

Tim Urban (1:33:36.960)

you know, there's all these articles that come out

Lex Fridman (1:33:38.200)

about how, you know, in our metaverse,

Tim Urban (1:33:39.860)

we've lost something important and then now there's a huge,

Lex Fridman (1:33:42.320)

all first the hippies start doing it

Lex Fridman (1:33:43.600)

and then eventually it becomes this big wave

Lex Fridman (1:33:44.940)

and now everyone, won't, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:33:46.800)

if something truly is lost, won't we recover it?

Lex Fridman (1:33:49.600)

Well, I think from first principles,

Tim Urban (1:33:51.640)

all of the components are there to engineer

Lex Fridman (1:33:54.680)

intimate experiences in the metaverse or in the cyberspace.

Lex Fridman (1:34:00.140)

And so to me, I don't see anything profoundly unique

Lex Fridman (1:34:06.560)

to the physical experience.

Tim Urban (1:34:08.160)

Like I don't understand.

Lex Fridman (1:34:09.240)

But then why are you saying there's a loss there?

Tim Urban (1:34:12.240)

No, I'm just sad because I won't,

Lex Fridman (1:34:13.680)

oh, it's a loss for me personally, because the world.

Lex Fridman (1:34:16.240)

So then you do think there's something unique

Lex Fridman (1:34:17.380)

in the physical experience.

Tim Urban (1:34:18.400)

For me, because I was raised with it.

Lex Fridman (1:34:20.320)

Oh.

Tim Urban (1:34:21.160)

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Lex Fridman (1:34:21.980)

So whatever, so anything you're raised with,

Tim Urban (1:34:24.240)

you fall in love with.

Lex Fridman (1:34:25.080)

Like people in this country came up with baseball.

Tim Urban (1:34:27.360)

I was raised in the Soviet Union.

Lex Fridman (1:34:29.240)

I don't understand baseball.

Tim Urban (1:34:30.440)

I get, I like it, but I don't love it

Lex Fridman (1:34:32.740)

the way Americans love it.

Tim Urban (1:34:36.000)

Because a lot of times they went to baseball games

Lex Fridman (1:34:38.840)

with their father and then there's that family connection.

Tim Urban (1:34:41.720)

There's a young kid dreaming about, I don't know,

Lex Fridman (1:34:47.560)

becoming an MLB player himself.

Tim Urban (1:34:49.880)

I don't know, something like that.

Lex Fridman (1:34:50.820)

But that's what you're raised with,

Tim Urban (1:34:52.760)

obviously is really important.

Lex Fridman (1:34:53.800)

But I mean, fundamentally to the human experience,

Tim Urban (1:34:57.320)

listen, we're doing this podcast in person.

Lex Fridman (1:34:58.960)

So clearly I still value it, but.

Lex Fridman (1:35:01.840)

But it's true.

Lex Fridman (1:35:02.680)

If this were, obviously through a screen,

Tim Urban (1:35:04.080)

we all agree that's not the same.

Lex Fridman (1:35:05.320)

Yeah, it's not the same.

Lex Fridman (1:35:06.160)

But if this were some, we had contact lenses on

Lex Fridman (1:35:08.280)

and maybe Neuralink, maybe again, forget,

Tim Urban (1:35:11.840)

again, this is all the devices,

Lex Fridman (1:35:13.800)

even if it's just cool as a contact lens,

Tim Urban (1:35:15.280)

that's all old school.

Lex Fridman (1:35:16.800)

Once you have the brain machine interface,

Tim Urban (1:35:18.640)

it'll just be projection of,

Lex Fridman (1:35:20.880)

it'll take over my visual cortex.

Tim Urban (1:35:22.340)

My visual cortex will get put into a virtual room

Lex Fridman (1:35:25.200)

and so will yours.

Lex Fridman (1:35:26.020)

So we will see, we will hear, really hear and see

Lex Fridman (1:35:29.160)

as if where you won't have any masks, no VR mask needed.

Lex Fridman (1:35:32.400)

And at that point, it really will feel like you'll forget.

Lex Fridman (1:35:35.040)

You'll say, will we together and physically or not?

Tim Urban (1:35:37.440)

You won't even,

Lex Fridman (1:35:38.280)

it'd be so unimportant you won't even remember.

Lex Fridman (1:35:40.200)

And you're right.

Lex Fridman (1:35:41.020)

This is one of those shifts in society

Tim Urban (1:35:45.040)

that changes everything.

Lex Fridman (1:35:46.720)

Romantically, people still need to be together.

Tim Urban (1:35:50.120)

There's a whole set of like physical things

Lex Fridman (1:35:52.640)

with a relationship that are needed.

Tim Urban (1:35:55.520)

You know, like.

Lex Fridman (1:35:56.360)

Like what?

Lex Fridman (1:35:57.180)

Like sex?

Lex Fridman (1:35:58.020)

Sex, but also just like there's pheromones.

Tim Urban (1:36:00.140)

Like there's the physical touch is such a,

Lex Fridman (1:36:03.160)

that's like music.

Tim Urban (1:36:04.000)

It goes to such a deeply primitive part of us

Lex Fridman (1:36:06.440)

that what physical touch with a romantic partner does,

Tim Urban (1:36:09.780)

that I think that,

Lex Fridman (1:36:11.160)

so I'm sure there'll be a whole wave of people who,

Tim Urban (1:36:13.800)

their new thing is that, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:36:14.880)

you're romantically involved people

Tim Urban (1:36:16.180)

you never actually are in person with,

Lex Fridman (1:36:17.440)

but, and I'm sure there'll be things

Tim Urban (1:36:18.920)

where you can actually smell what's in the room

Lex Fridman (1:36:20.360)

and you can.

Tim Urban (1:36:21.200)

Yeah, and touch.

Lex Fridman (1:36:22.040)

Yeah, but I think that'll be one of the last things to go.

Tim Urban (1:36:24.320)

I think there'll be, there's something,

Lex Fridman (1:36:26.840)

that to me seems like something that'll be a while

Tim Urban (1:36:29.840)

before people feel like there's nothing lost

Lex Fridman (1:36:32.020)

by not being in the same.

Tim Urban (1:36:33.760)

It's very difficult to replicate the human interaction.

Lex Fridman (1:36:35.840)

Although sex also, again,

Tim Urban (1:36:37.200)

you could not to get too like weird,

Lex Fridman (1:36:39.740)

but you could have a thing where you,

Tim Urban (1:36:41.320)

you're basically, you know, or, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:36:44.520)

let's just do a massage because it's less like awkward,

Lex Fridman (1:36:46.840)

but like someone, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:36:48.480)

everyone is still imagining sex.

Lex Fridman (1:36:49.960)

So go on.

Lex Fridman (1:36:50.800)

A masseuse could massage a fake body

Lex Fridman (1:36:54.720)

and you could feel whatever's happening, right?

Lex Fridman (1:36:57.000)

So you're lying down in your apartment alone,

Lex Fridman (1:36:58.960)

but you're feeling a full.

Lex Fridman (1:37:00.200)

There'll be the new like YouTube or like streaming

Tim Urban (1:37:02.880)

where it's one masseuse massaging one body,

Lex Fridman (1:37:05.040)

but like a thousand people are experiencing.

Tim Urban (1:37:06.720)

Exactly right now.

Lex Fridman (1:37:07.540)

Think about it right now.

Tim Urban (1:37:08.380)

You know what, Taylor Swift doesn't play for one person

Lex Fridman (1:37:10.680)

and has to go around and every one of her fans

Lex Fridman (1:37:12.320)

she has to go play for or a book, right?

Lex Fridman (1:37:14.620)

You do it and it goes everywhere.

Lex Fridman (1:37:15.760)

So it'll be the same idea.

Lex Fridman (1:37:18.220)

You've written and thought a lot about AI.

Lex Fridman (1:37:21.720)

So AI safety specifically,

Lex Fridman (1:37:25.040)

you've mentioned you're actually starting a podcast,

Tim Urban (1:37:27.420)

which is awesome.

Lex Fridman (1:37:28.360)

You're so good at talking, so good at thinking,

Lex Fridman (1:37:30.540)

so good at being weird in the most beautiful of ways,

Lex Fridman (1:37:33.940)

but you've been thinking about this AI safety question.

Tim Urban (1:37:38.580)

Where today does your concern lie

Lex Fridman (1:37:41.620)

for the near future, for the longterm future?

Tim Urban (1:37:43.840)

Like quite a bit of stuff happened,

Lex Fridman (1:37:46.540)

including with Elon's work with Tesla Autopilot.

Tim Urban (1:37:48.600)

There's a bunch of amazing robots with Boston Dynamics

Lex Fridman (1:37:52.100)

and everyone's favorite vacuum robot, iRobot, Roomba.

Lex Fridman (1:37:57.380)

And then there's obviously the applications

Lex Fridman (1:37:59.300)

of machine learning for recommender systems

Tim Urban (1:38:01.840)

in Twitter, Facebook, and so on.

Lex Fridman (1:38:04.380)

And face recognition for surveillance,

Tim Urban (1:38:07.780)

all these kinds of things are happening.

Lex Fridman (1:38:09.140)

Just a lot of incredible use of not the face recognition,

Lex Fridman (1:38:12.580)

but the incredible use of deep learning,

Lex Fridman (1:38:15.300)

machine learning to capture information about people

Lex Fridman (1:38:19.340)

and try to recommend to them what they wanna consume next.

Lex Fridman (1:38:24.180)

Some of that can be abused,

Tim Urban (1:38:25.340)

some of that can be used for good,

Lex Fridman (1:38:27.100)

like for Netflix or something like that.

Lex Fridman (1:38:29.060)

What are your thoughts about all this?

Lex Fridman (1:38:30.300)

Yeah, I mean, I really don't think humans are very smart,

Tim Urban (1:38:35.420)

all things considered, I think we're like limited.

Lex Fridman (1:38:38.700)

And we're dumb enough that we're very easily manipulable.

Tim Urban (1:38:43.220)

Not just like, oh, like our emotions,

Lex Fridman (1:38:45.980)

people can, our emotions can be pulled like puppet strings.

Tim Urban (1:38:50.260)

I mean, again, I look at like,

Lex Fridman (1:38:51.240)

I do look at what's going on in political polarization now

Lex Fridman (1:38:53.460)

and I see a lot of puppet string emotions happening.

Lex Fridman (1:38:56.500)

So yeah, there's a lot to be scared of for sure,

Tim Urban (1:38:58.980)

like very scared of.

Lex Fridman (1:39:00.660)

I get excited about a lot of very specific things.

Tim Urban (1:39:03.700)

Like one of the things I get excited about is I like,

Lex Fridman (1:39:06.420)

so the future of wearables, right?

Tim Urban (1:39:08.540)

Again, I think that it would be like,

Lex Fridman (1:39:09.720)

oh, the wrist, the Fitbit around my wrist

Tim Urban (1:39:11.700)

is gonna seem, you know, the whoop

Lex Fridman (1:39:13.380)

is gonna seem really hilariously old school in 20 years.

Tim Urban (1:39:17.900)

Back with Neuralink.

Lex Fridman (1:39:18.740)

Like a big bracelet, right?

Tim Urban (1:39:21.020)

It's gonna turn into little sensors in our blood probably,

Lex Fridman (1:39:24.140)

or, you know, even, you know, infrared,

Tim Urban (1:39:26.220)

we're, you know, just things that are gonna be,

Lex Fridman (1:39:28.700)

it's gonna be collecting a hundred times more data

Tim Urban (1:39:31.060)

than it collects now, more nuanced data,

Lex Fridman (1:39:32.580)

more specific to our body.

Lex Fridman (1:39:34.420)

And it's going to be, you know, super reliable,

Lex Fridman (1:39:36.660)

but that's the hardware side.

Lex Fridman (1:39:38.100)

And then the software is gonna be,

Lex Fridman (1:39:40.460)

this is, I've not done my deep dive.

Tim Urban (1:39:41.660)

This is all speculation,

Lex Fridman (1:39:42.620)

but the software is gonna get really good.

Lex Fridman (1:39:45.060)

And this is the AI component.

Lex Fridman (1:39:46.940)

And so I get excited about specific things like that.

Tim Urban (1:39:49.200)

Like think about if hardware were able to collect,

Lex Fridman (1:39:54.580)

first of all, the hardware knows your whole genome

Lex Fridman (1:39:56.680)

and we know a lot more about what a genome sequence means.

Lex Fridman (1:40:00.700)

Cause you can collect your genome now

Lex Fridman (1:40:03.420)

and we just don't know much.

Lex Fridman (1:40:04.400)

We, okay, we don't have much to do with that information.

Tim Urban (1:40:07.160)

As AI gets, so now you have your genome,

Lex Fridman (1:40:09.220)

you've got what's in your blood at any given moment,

Lex Fridman (1:40:11.260)

all the levels of everything, right?

Lex Fridman (1:40:13.260)

You have the exact width of your heart arteries

Tim Urban (1:40:16.140)

at any given moment, you've got.

Lex Fridman (1:40:18.880)

All the, all the virons,

Tim Urban (1:40:20.660)

all the viruses that ever visited your body

Lex Fridman (1:40:22.780)

cause there's a trace of it.

Lex Fridman (1:40:24.020)

So you have all the pathogens,

Lex Fridman (1:40:25.700)

all the things that like,

Tim Urban (1:40:27.620)

you should be concerned about health wise

Lex Fridman (1:40:29.300)

and might have threatened you,

Tim Urban (1:40:30.740)

you might be immune from all of that kind of stuff.

Lex Fridman (1:40:32.940)

They also, of course it knows

Lex Fridman (1:40:34.180)

how fast your heart is beating

Lex Fridman (1:40:35.620)

and it knows how much you know,

Tim Urban (1:40:37.140)

exactly the amount of exercise,

Lex Fridman (1:40:39.500)

knows your muscle mass and your weight and all that,

Lex Fridman (1:40:41.160)

but it also maybe can even know your emotions.

Lex Fridman (1:40:42.960)

I mean, make, if emotions, you know, what are they,

Lex Fridman (1:40:44.820)

you know, where do they come from?

Lex Fridman (1:40:45.660)

Probably pretty obvious chemicals once we get in there.

Lex Fridman (1:40:48.820)

So again, Neuralink can be involved here maybe

Lex Fridman (1:40:50.660)

in collecting information, you know,

Tim Urban (1:40:53.140)

cause right now you have to do the thing,

Lex Fridman (1:40:54.100)

what's your mood right now?

Lex Fridman (1:40:55.020)

And it's hard to even assess, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:40:56.300)

and you're in a bad mood, it's hard to even, but.

Tim Urban (1:40:58.860)

By the way, just as a shout out,

Lex Fridman (1:41:00.660)

Lisa Feldman Barrett, who's a neuroscientist

Tim Urban (1:41:03.780)

at Northeastern just wrote a,

Lex Fridman (1:41:05.500)

I mean, not just, like a few years ago,

Tim Urban (1:41:07.060)

wrote a whole book saying our expression of emotions

Lex Fridman (1:41:09.700)

has nothing to do with the experience of emotions.

Lex Fridman (1:41:12.260)

So you really actually want to be measuring.

Lex Fridman (1:41:15.100)

That, that's exactly.

Tim Urban (1:41:16.300)

I, you can tell because one of these apps pops up

Lex Fridman (1:41:18.700)

and says, you know, what, how do you feel right now?

Lex Fridman (1:41:20.660)

Good, bad?

Lex Fridman (1:41:21.500)

I'm like, I don't know.

Tim Urban (1:41:22.320)

Like I feel bad right now because the thing popping up

Lex Fridman (1:41:24.700)

reminded me that I'm procrastinating.

Lex Fridman (1:41:26.660)

So I was on my phone, I should have been more,

Lex Fridman (1:41:27.900)

you know, I'm like, that's not my, you know.

Lex Fridman (1:41:29.320)

So I think it will probably be able to very,

Lex Fridman (1:41:33.400)

get all this info, right?

Tim Urban (1:41:34.660)

Now the AI can go to town.

Lex Fridman (1:41:37.260)

Think about when the AI gets really good at this

Lex Fridman (1:41:39.500)

and it knows your genome and it knows it can just,

Lex Fridman (1:41:42.460)

I want the AI to just tell me what to do when it turns up.

Lex Fridman (1:41:46.300)

Okay, so how about this?

Lex Fridman (1:41:47.820)

Now imagine attaching that to a meal service, right?

Lex Fridman (1:41:50.540)

And the meal service has everything, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:41:51.700)

all the million ingredients and supplements and vitamins

Lex Fridman (1:41:54.620)

and everything.

Lex Fridman (1:41:55.860)

And I give the, I tell the AI my broad goals.

Tim Urban (1:41:59.420)

I want to gain muscle or I want to, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:42:02.500)

maintain my weight, but I want to have more energy

Tim Urban (1:42:04.220)

or whatever, I just want, or I want to, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:42:05.540)

I just want to be very healthy and I want to,

Tim Urban (1:42:06.660)

obviously everyone wants the same, like 10 basic things.

Lex Fridman (1:42:09.420)

Like you want to avoid cancer, you want to, you know,

Tim Urban (1:42:11.300)

various things, you want to age slower.

Lex Fridman (1:42:14.300)

So now the AI has my goals and a drone comes at,

Tim Urban (1:42:19.620)

you know, a little thing pops up and it says like,

Lex Fridman (1:42:22.340)

you know, beep, beep, like, you know, 15 minutes,

Tim Urban (1:42:24.660)

you're going to eat because it knows that's a great,

Lex Fridman (1:42:25.980)

that's the right time for my body to eat.

Tim Urban (1:42:27.860)

15 minutes later, a little slot opens in my wall

Lex Fridman (1:42:30.180)

where a drone has come from the factory,

Tim Urban (1:42:32.140)

the eating, the food factory and dropped the perfect meal

Lex Fridman (1:42:35.140)

for my, that moment for me, for my mood, for my genome,

Tim Urban (1:42:38.820)

for my blood contents.

Lex Fridman (1:42:40.700)

And it's, it's because it knows my goals.

Tim Urban (1:42:42.740)

So, you know, it knows I want to feel energy at this time

Lex Fridman (1:42:44.620)

and then I want to wind down here.

Lex Fridman (1:42:45.740)

So those things you have to tell it.

Lex Fridman (1:42:47.380)

Well, plus the pleasure thing, like it knows what kind

Tim Urban (1:42:50.340)

of components of a meal you've enjoyed in the past

Lex Fridman (1:42:52.500)

so you can assemble the perfect meal.

Tim Urban (1:42:53.940)

Exactly, it knows you way better than you know yourself,

Lex Fridman (1:42:56.940)

better than any human could ever know you.

Lex Fridman (1:42:58.340)

And a little thing pops up,

Lex Fridman (1:42:59.940)

you still have some choice, right?

Tim Urban (1:43:01.460)

Still, it pops up and it says like, you know, coffee,

Lex Fridman (1:43:05.220)

because it knows that, you know, my cutoff,

Tim Urban (1:43:07.300)

they says, you know, I can have coffee

Lex Fridman (1:43:08.940)

for the next 15 minutes only because at that point

Tim Urban (1:43:11.540)

it knows how long it stays in my system.

Lex Fridman (1:43:12.940)

It knows what my sleep is like when I have it too late.

Tim Urban (1:43:14.740)

It knows I have to wake up at this time tomorrow

Lex Fridman (1:43:16.220)

because that was my calendar.

Lex Fridman (1:43:17.780)

And so I think a lot of people's, this is,

Lex Fridman (1:43:19.660)

I think something that humans are wrong about

Tim Urban (1:43:22.100)

is that most people will hear this and be like,

Lex Fridman (1:43:23.660)

that sounds awful, that sounds dystopian.

Tim Urban (1:43:26.060)

No, it doesn't, it sounds incredible.

Lex Fridman (1:43:27.460)

And if we all had this, we would not look back and be like,

Tim Urban (1:43:29.660)

I wish I was like making awful choices every day

Lex Fridman (1:43:32.140)

like I was in the past.

Lex Fridman (1:43:33.660)

And then this isn't, these aren't important decisions.

Lex Fridman (1:43:36.180)

Your important decision making energy,

Tim Urban (1:43:38.860)

your important focus and your attention can go

Lex Fridman (1:43:41.700)

onto your kids and on your work and on, you know,

Tim Urban (1:43:44.620)

helping other people and things that matter.

Lex Fridman (1:43:46.420)

And so I think AI, when I think about like personal

Tim Urban (1:43:49.940)

lifestyle and stuff like that, I really love,

Lex Fridman (1:43:53.780)

like I love thinking about that.

Tim Urban (1:43:55.420)

I think it's gonna be very, and I think we'll all be

Lex Fridman (1:43:57.020)

so much healthier that when we look back today,

Tim Urban (1:44:00.460)

one of the things that's gonna look so primitive

Lex Fridman (1:44:02.060)

is the one size fits all thing,

Tim Urban (1:44:03.500)

getting like reading advice about keto.

Lex Fridman (1:44:07.820)

Each genome is gonna have very specific,

Tim Urban (1:44:10.020)

one, you know, unique advice coming from AI.

Lex Fridman (1:44:12.780)

And so, yeah.

Tim Urban (1:44:14.180)

Yeah, the customization that's enabled by collection

Lex Fridman (1:44:16.700)

of data and the use of AI, a lot of people think

Tim Urban (1:44:19.700)

what's the, like they think of the worst case scenario

Lex Fridman (1:44:22.340)

that data being used by authoritarian governments

Tim Urban (1:44:25.180)

to control you, all that kind of stuff.

Lex Fridman (1:44:26.580)

They don't think about most likely,

Tim Urban (1:44:28.420)

especially in a capitalist society,

Lex Fridman (1:44:30.020)

it's most likely going to be used as part of a competition

Tim Urban (1:44:34.300)

to get you the most delicious and healthy meal possible

Lex Fridman (1:44:36.780)

as fast as possible.

Tim Urban (1:44:38.340)

Yeah, so the world will definitely be much better

Lex Fridman (1:44:40.700)

with the integration of data.

Lex Fridman (1:44:42.260)

But of course, you wanna be able to be transparent

Lex Fridman (1:44:46.420)

and honest about how that data is misused.

Lex Fridman (1:44:48.340)

And that's why it's important to have free speech

Lex Fridman (1:44:50.380)

and people to speak out, like when some bullshit

Tim Urban (1:44:52.500)

is being done by companies.

Lex Fridman (1:44:53.580)

That we need to have our wits about us as a society.

Tim Urban (1:44:55.940)

Like this is free speech is the mechanism

Lex Fridman (1:45:00.460)

by which the big brain can think, can think for itself,

Tim Urban (1:45:03.460)

can think straight, can see straight.

Lex Fridman (1:45:05.940)

When you take away free speech, when you start saying

Tim Urban (1:45:08.340)

that in every topic, when any topic's political,

Lex Fridman (1:45:10.940)

it becomes treacherous to talk about.

Lex Fridman (1:45:12.820)

So forget the government taking away free speech.

Lex Fridman (1:45:15.660)

If the culture penalizes nuanced conversation

Tim Urban (1:45:18.860)

about any topic that's political

Lex Fridman (1:45:21.060)

and the politics is so all consuming

Lex Fridman (1:45:24.380)

and it's such a incredible market to polarize people,

Lex Fridman (1:45:30.100)

for media to polarize people and to bring any topic it can

Tim Urban (1:45:32.860)

into that and get people hooked on it as a political topic,

Lex Fridman (1:45:36.700)

we become a very dumb society.

Lex Fridman (1:45:38.100)

So free speech goes away as far as it matters.

Lex Fridman (1:45:39.860)

People say, oh, people like to say outside,

Tim Urban (1:45:42.060)

you don't even know what free speech is.

Lex Fridman (1:45:43.220)

Free speech is, your free speech is not being violated.

Tim Urban (1:45:46.860)

It's like, no, you're right.

Lex Fridman (1:45:48.380)

My first amendment rights are not being violated.

Lex Fridman (1:45:50.780)

But the culture of free speech,

Lex Fridman (1:45:52.060)

which is the second ingredient of two,

Tim Urban (1:45:53.860)

you need the first amendment

Lex Fridman (1:45:55.540)

and you need the culture of free speech.

Lex Fridman (1:45:57.260)

And now you have free speech

Lex Fridman (1:45:58.180)

and the culture is much more specific.

Tim Urban (1:46:00.940)

You obviously can have a culture that believes people

Lex Fridman (1:46:03.180)

right now take any topic again, that has to do with like,

Tim Urban (1:46:06.340)

some very sensitive topics, police shootings,

Lex Fridman (1:46:10.940)

or what's going on in K through 12 schools

Tim Urban (1:46:13.660)

or even climate change, take any of these.

Lex Fridman (1:46:16.820)

And the first amendment's still there.

Tim Urban (1:46:19.900)

You're not gonna get arrested no matter what you say.

Lex Fridman (1:46:22.700)

The culture of free speech is gone

Tim Urban (1:46:25.620)

because you will be destroyed.

Lex Fridman (1:46:27.060)

Your life can be over as far as it matters

Tim Urban (1:46:30.820)

if you say the wrong thing.

Lex Fridman (1:46:31.700)

But a really vigorous culture of free speech,

Tim Urban (1:46:35.260)

you get no penalty at all

Lex Fridman (1:46:36.540)

for even saying something super dumb.

Tim Urban (1:46:38.380)

People will say, like, people will laugh and be like,

Lex Fridman (1:46:40.380)

well, that was like kind of hilariously offensive

Lex Fridman (1:46:42.660)

and like, not at all correct.

Lex Fridman (1:46:43.940)

Like, you know, you're wrong and here's why.

Lex Fridman (1:46:45.460)

But no one's like mad at you.

Lex Fridman (1:46:47.100)

Now the brain is thinking at its best.

Tim Urban (1:46:49.660)

The IQ of the big brain is like,

Lex Fridman (1:46:51.020)

as high as it can be in that culture.

Lex Fridman (1:46:53.140)

And the culture where, and you say something wrong

Lex Fridman (1:46:55.060)

and people say, oh, wow, you've changed.

Tim Urban (1:46:56.540)

Oh, wow, like, look, this is his real colors.

Lex Fridman (1:46:58.780)

He knows the big brain is dumb.

Tim Urban (1:47:01.580)

You still have mutual respect for each other.

Lex Fridman (1:47:03.860)

So like, you don't think lesser of others

Tim Urban (1:47:06.980)

when they say a bunch of dumb things.

Lex Fridman (1:47:08.540)

You know it's just the play of ideas.

Lex Fridman (1:47:10.860)

But you still have respect, you still have love for them.

Lex Fridman (1:47:12.860)

Because I think the worst case is

Tim Urban (1:47:15.300)

when you have a complete free like anarchy of ideas

Lex Fridman (1:47:18.780)

where it's like everybody lost hope

Tim Urban (1:47:22.180)

that something like a truth can even be converged towards.

Lex Fridman (1:47:25.740)

Like, everybody has their own truth.

Tim Urban (1:47:27.540)

Then it's just chaos.

Lex Fridman (1:47:29.580)

Like, if you have mutual respect

Lex Fridman (1:47:31.500)

and a mutual goal of arriving at the truth

Lex Fridman (1:47:33.780)

and the humility that you want to listen

Tim Urban (1:47:35.820)

to other people's ideas,

Lex Fridman (1:47:37.180)

and a forgiveness that other people's ideas

Tim Urban (1:47:38.940)

might be dumb as hell,

Lex Fridman (1:47:39.860)

that doesn't mean they're lesser beings,

Tim Urban (1:47:41.340)

all that kind of stuff.

Lex Fridman (1:47:42.420)

But that's like a weird balance to strike.

Tim Urban (1:47:44.540)

Right now people are being trained, little kids,

Lex Fridman (1:47:47.540)

college students, being trained

Tim Urban (1:47:49.300)

to think the exact opposite way.

Lex Fridman (1:47:51.340)

To think that there's no such thing as objective truth,

Tim Urban (1:47:53.260)

which is, you know, the objective truth

Lex Fridman (1:47:54.620)

is the end on the compass for every thinker.

Tim Urban (1:47:59.180)

Doesn't mean we're necessarily on our way or we're finding,

Lex Fridman (1:48:02.140)

but we're all aiming in the same direction.

Tim Urban (1:48:03.580)

We all believe that there's a place

Lex Fridman (1:48:05.020)

we can eventually get closer to.

Tim Urban (1:48:07.660)

Not objective truth, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:48:08.980)

teaching them that disagreement is bad, violence.

Tim Urban (1:48:12.140)

You know, it's, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:48:16.220)

it's like, you know, you quickly sound like

Tim Urban (1:48:17.980)

you're just going on like a political rant with this topic,

Lex Fridman (1:48:20.380)

but like, it's really bad.

Tim Urban (1:48:22.420)

It's like genuinely the worst.

Lex Fridman (1:48:24.780)

If I had my own country,

Tim Urban (1:48:26.860)

I mean, it's like I would teach kids

Lex Fridman (1:48:30.460)

some very specific things

Tim Urban (1:48:31.780)

that this is doing the exact opposite of,

Lex Fridman (1:48:36.020)

and it sucks, it sucks.

Tim Urban (1:48:39.380)

Speaking of a way to escape this,

Lex Fridman (1:48:40.700)

you've tweeted 30 minutes of reading a day equals,

Tim Urban (1:48:43.460)

yeah, this whole video,

Lex Fridman (1:48:44.300)

and it's cool to think about reading,

Tim Urban (1:48:46.020)

like as a habit and something that accumulates.

Lex Fridman (1:48:50.260)

You said 30 minutes of reading a day

Tim Urban (1:48:51.860)

equals 1000 books in 50 years.

Lex Fridman (1:48:54.300)

I love like thinking about this,

Tim Urban (1:48:56.940)

like chipping away at the mountain.

Lex Fridman (1:48:59.340)

Can you expand on that sort of the habit of reading?

Lex Fridman (1:49:02.900)

How do you recommend people read?

Lex Fridman (1:49:04.620)

Yeah, yeah, I mean, it's incredible.

Tim Urban (1:49:06.940)

If you do something, a little of something every day,

Lex Fridman (1:49:10.580)

it compiles, it compiles.

Tim Urban (1:49:12.780)

You know, I always think about like the people

Lex Fridman (1:49:14.300)

who achieve these incredible things in life,

Tim Urban (1:49:16.700)

these great, like famous, legendary people,

Lex Fridman (1:49:19.580)

they have the same number of days that you do,

Lex Fridman (1:49:21.300)

and it's not like they were doing magical days.

Lex Fridman (1:49:23.660)

They just, they got a little done every day,

Lex Fridman (1:49:26.620)

and that adds up to a monument,

Lex Fridman (1:49:32.860)

they're putting one brick in a day,

Tim Urban (1:49:33.940)

eventually they have this building,

Lex Fridman (1:49:35.020)

this legendary building.

Lex Fridman (1:49:36.300)

So you can take writing,

Lex Fridman (1:49:38.140)

someone who, you know, there's two aspiring writers,

Lex Fridman (1:49:40.660)

and one doesn't ever write,

Lex Fridman (1:49:42.100)

doesn't, you know, manages to never zero write,

Tim Urban (1:49:44.420)

zero pages a day,

Lex Fridman (1:49:45.260)

and the other one manages to do two pages a week, right?

Tim Urban (1:49:49.340)

Not very much.

Lex Fridman (1:49:50.180)

The other one does zero pages a week,

Tim Urban (1:49:51.140)

two pages a week, 98% of both of their time is the same.

Lex Fridman (1:49:55.420)

The other person, just 2%, they're doing one other thing.

Tim Urban (1:49:58.580)

One year later, they have written,

Lex Fridman (1:50:00.700)

they write two books a year.

Tim Urban (1:50:01.740)

This prolific person, you know, in 20 years,

Lex Fridman (1:50:04.420)

they've written 40 books,

Tim Urban (1:50:05.500)

they're one of the most prolific writers of all time.

Lex Fridman (1:50:07.500)

They write two pages a week.

Tim Urban (1:50:09.820)

Sorry, that's not true.

Lex Fridman (1:50:10.980)

That was two pages a day.

Tim Urban (1:50:12.340)

Okay, two pages a week,

Lex Fridman (1:50:13.420)

you're still writing about a book every two years.

Lex Fridman (1:50:15.860)

So in 20 years, you've still written 10 books,

Lex Fridman (1:50:17.940)

also prolific writer, right?

Tim Urban (1:50:19.740)

Huge, massive writing career.

Lex Fridman (1:50:21.380)

You write two pages every Sunday morning.

Tim Urban (1:50:23.380)

The other person has the same exact week,

Lex Fridman (1:50:25.220)

and they don't do that Sunday morning thing.

Tim Urban (1:50:26.460)

They are a wannabe writer.

Lex Fridman (1:50:27.900)

They always said they could write.

Tim Urban (1:50:29.100)

They talk about how they used to be,

Lex Fridman (1:50:30.860)

and nothing happens, right?

Lex Fridman (1:50:31.900)

So it's inspiring, I think,

Lex Fridman (1:50:34.220)

for a lot of people who feel frustrated

Lex Fridman (1:50:35.660)

and they're not doing anything.

Lex Fridman (1:50:36.500)

So reading is another example

Tim Urban (1:50:38.500)

where someone who reads very, you know, doesn't read,

Lex Fridman (1:50:43.620)

and someone who's a prolific reader,

Tim Urban (1:50:45.620)

you know, I always think about like the Tyler Cowen types.

Lex Fridman (1:50:47.500)

I'm like, how the hell do you read so much?

Lex Fridman (1:50:49.940)

It's infuriating, you know?

Lex Fridman (1:50:51.300)

Or like James Clear puts out his like,

Tim Urban (1:50:53.780)

his 10 favorite books of the year,

Lex Fridman (1:50:56.460)

his 20 favorite books of the year.

Lex Fridman (1:50:57.820)

I'm like, your 20 favorites?

Lex Fridman (1:51:00.660)

Like I'm trying to just read 20 books,

Tim Urban (1:51:02.180)

like that would be an amazing year.

Lex Fridman (1:51:03.540)

So, but the thing is,

Tim Urban (1:51:06.020)

they're not doing something crazy and magical.

Lex Fridman (1:51:07.940)

They're just reading a half hour a night, you know?

Tim Urban (1:51:09.940)

If you read a half hour a night,

Lex Fridman (1:51:11.580)

the calculation I came to is that

Tim Urban (1:51:12.980)

you can read a thousand books in 50 years.

Lex Fridman (1:51:15.220)

So as someone who's 80 and they've read a thousand books,

Tim Urban (1:51:18.580)

you know, between 30 and 80,

Lex Fridman (1:51:20.020)

they are extremely well read.

Tim Urban (1:51:21.780)

They can delve deep into many nonfiction areas.

Lex Fridman (1:51:24.820)

They can be, you know, an amazing fiction reader,

Tim Urban (1:51:27.820)

avid fiction reader.

Lex Fridman (1:51:29.380)

And again, that's a half hour a day.

Tim Urban (1:51:30.580)

Some people can do an hour,

Lex Fridman (1:51:31.540)

a half hour in the morning audio book,

Tim Urban (1:51:33.060)

half hour at night in bed.

Lex Fridman (1:51:34.140)

Now they've read 2000 books.

Lex Fridman (1:51:35.140)

So I think it's motivating.

Lex Fridman (1:51:40.860)

And you realize that a lot of times you think

Tim Urban (1:51:43.820)

that the people who are doing amazing things

Lex Fridman (1:51:45.820)

and you're not, you think that there's a bigger gap

Tim Urban (1:51:48.860)

between you and them than there really is.

Lex Fridman (1:51:51.420)

I, on the reading front, I'm a very slow reader,

Tim Urban (1:51:53.980)

which is just a very frustrating fact about me,

Lex Fridman (1:51:58.380)

but I'm faster with audio books.

Lex Fridman (1:52:00.660)

And also I just, you know, I'll just,

Lex Fridman (1:52:02.460)

it's just hard to get myself to read,

Lex Fridman (1:52:04.300)

but I've started doing audio books

Lex Fridman (1:52:05.660)

and I'll wake up, throw it on, do it in the shower,

Tim Urban (1:52:09.060)

brushing my teeth, you know, making breakfast,

Lex Fridman (1:52:10.980)

dealing with the dogs, things like that, whatever,

Tim Urban (1:52:12.820)

until I sit down.

Lex Fridman (1:52:14.140)

And that's, I can read, I can read a book a week,

Tim Urban (1:52:17.820)

a book every 10 days at that clip.

Lex Fridman (1:52:20.420)

And suddenly I'm this big reader

Tim Urban (1:52:21.820)

because I'm just, while doing my morning stuff,

Lex Fridman (1:52:24.180)

I have it on and also it's this fun,

Tim Urban (1:52:25.340)

it makes the morning so fun.

Lex Fridman (1:52:26.260)

I'm like having a great time the whole morning.

Lex Fridman (1:52:27.860)

So I'm like, oh, I'm so into this book.

Lex Fridman (1:52:29.500)

So I think that, you know, audio books

Tim Urban (1:52:31.300)

is another amazing gift to people

Lex Fridman (1:52:32.940)

who have a hard time reading.

Tim Urban (1:52:34.180)

I find that that's actually an interesting skill.

Lex Fridman (1:52:36.260)

I do audio books quite a bit.

Tim Urban (1:52:38.700)

Like it's a skill to maintain, at least for me,

Lex Fridman (1:52:41.740)

probably the kind of books I read,

Tim Urban (1:52:43.180)

which is often like history or like,

Lex Fridman (1:52:45.620)

there's a lot of content.

Lex Fridman (1:52:47.060)

And if you miss parts of it, you miss out on stuff.

Lex Fridman (1:52:51.900)

And so it's a skill to maintain focus.

Tim Urban (1:52:55.300)

At least for me.

Lex Fridman (1:52:56.140)

Well, the 10 second back button is very valuable.

Tim Urban (1:52:58.820)

Oh, interesting.

Lex Fridman (1:52:59.660)

So I just, if I get lost,

Tim Urban (1:53:01.140)

sometimes the book is so good

Lex Fridman (1:53:02.460)

that I'm thinking about what the person just said.

Lex Fridman (1:53:03.980)

And I just get, the skill for me is just remembering to pause.

Lex Fridman (1:53:06.540)

And if I don't, no problem, just back, back, back, back.

Tim Urban (1:53:09.020)

Just three quick backs.

Lex Fridman (1:53:10.460)

So of course it's not that efficient,

Lex Fridman (1:53:12.140)

but it's, I do the same thing when I'm reading.

Lex Fridman (1:53:14.020)

I'll read a whole paragraph

Lex Fridman (1:53:14.860)

and realize I was tuning out.

Lex Fridman (1:53:15.900)

Yeah, you know?

Tim Urban (1:53:17.100)

You know, I haven't actually even considered to try that.

Lex Fridman (1:53:19.780)

I've been so hard on myself maintaining focus

Tim Urban (1:53:22.900)

because you do get lost in thought.

Lex Fridman (1:53:24.300)

Maybe I should try that.

Tim Urban (1:53:25.140)

Yeah, and when you get lost in thought, by the way,

Lex Fridman (1:53:26.820)

you're processing the book.

Tim Urban (1:53:27.900)

That's not wasted time.

Lex Fridman (1:53:29.220)

That's your brain really categorizing

Lex Fridman (1:53:31.300)

and cataloging what you just read and like.

Lex Fridman (1:53:33.460)

Well, there's several kinds of thoughts, right?

Tim Urban (1:53:36.060)

There's thoughts related to the book

Lex Fridman (1:53:37.540)

and there's a thought that it could take you elsewhere.

Tim Urban (1:53:40.060)

Well, I find that if I am continually thinking

Lex Fridman (1:53:43.860)

about something else, I just say, I'm not,

Tim Urban (1:53:45.820)

I just pause the book.

Lex Fridman (1:53:47.740)

Yeah, especially in the shower or something

Tim Urban (1:53:49.220)

when like, that's sometimes

Lex Fridman (1:53:51.180)

when really great thoughts come up.

Tim Urban (1:53:52.140)

If I'm having all these thoughts about other stuff,

Lex Fridman (1:53:53.860)

I'm saying clearly my mind wants to work on something else.

Lex Fridman (1:53:55.860)

So I'll just pause it.

Lex Fridman (1:53:56.700)

Yeah, quiet, Dan Carlin.

Tim Urban (1:53:57.780)

I'm thinking about something else right now.

Lex Fridman (1:53:59.220)

Exactly, exactly.

Tim Urban (1:54:00.620)

Also you can, things like you have to head out to the store.

Lex Fridman (1:54:04.220)

Like I'm gonna read 20 pages on that trip.

Tim Urban (1:54:06.460)

Just walking back and forth, going to the airport.

Lex Fridman (1:54:08.540)

I mean, flights, you know, the Uber,

Lex Fridman (1:54:10.460)

and then you're walking to the,

Lex Fridman (1:54:12.060)

walking through the airport,

Tim Urban (1:54:13.100)

you're sharing the security line.

Lex Fridman (1:54:13.980)

I'm reading the whole time, like,

Tim Urban (1:54:15.900)

I know this is not groundbreaking.

Lex Fridman (1:54:17.380)

People know what audio books are,

Lex Fridman (1:54:18.500)

but I think that more people

Lex Fridman (1:54:19.980)

should probably get into them than do.

Tim Urban (1:54:21.380)

Cause I know a lot of people,

Lex Fridman (1:54:22.220)

they have this stubborn kind of things.

Tim Urban (1:54:23.540)

I don't like, I like to have the paper book and sure,

Lex Fridman (1:54:25.740)

but like, it's pretty fun to be able to read.

Tim Urban (1:54:27.940)

I still, I listen to a huge number of audio books

Lex Fridman (1:54:31.060)

and podcasts, but I still,

Tim Urban (1:54:32.940)

the most impactful experiences for me are still reading.

Lex Fridman (1:54:36.540)

And I read very, very slow.

Lex Fridman (1:54:38.340)

And it's very frustrating when like,

Lex Fridman (1:54:41.060)

you go to these websites like that estimate

Lex Fridman (1:54:43.460)

how long a book takes on average,

Lex Fridman (1:54:45.620)

that those are always annoying.

Tim Urban (1:54:46.540)

They do like a page a minute when I read like best,

Lex Fridman (1:54:50.100)

a page every two minutes, at best.

Tim Urban (1:54:51.940)

At best, when you're like really like,

Lex Fridman (1:54:54.500)

actually not pausing.

Tim Urban (1:54:55.820)

I just, my ADD, it's like, I just,

Lex Fridman (1:54:58.060)

it's hard to keep focusing.

Lex Fridman (1:54:59.860)

And I also like to really absorb.

Lex Fridman (1:55:01.820)

So on the other side of things,

Tim Urban (1:55:03.460)

when I finish a book, 10 years later, I'll be like,

Lex Fridman (1:55:05.940)

you know that scene when this happens

Lex Fridman (1:55:06.980)

and another friend read it,

Lex Fridman (1:55:07.820)

I'll be like, what?

Tim Urban (1:55:08.660)

I don't remember any like details.

Lex Fridman (1:55:09.500)

I'm like, oh, I can tell you like the entire.

Lex Fridman (1:55:10.860)

So I absorbed the shit out of it,

Lex Fridman (1:55:12.380)

but I don't think it's worth it to like have to read

Lex Fridman (1:55:14.820)

so less, so much less in my life.

Lex Fridman (1:55:16.580)

I actually, so in terms of going to the airport,

Tim Urban (1:55:18.740)

you know, in these like filler moments of life,

Lex Fridman (1:55:22.260)

I do a lot of, it's an app called Anki.

Tim Urban (1:55:24.860)

I don't know if you know about it.

Lex Fridman (1:55:26.620)

It's a space repetition app.

Lex Fridman (1:55:29.180)

So there's all of these facts I have when I read,

Lex Fridman (1:55:31.580)

I write it down if I want to remember it.

Lex Fridman (1:55:33.940)

And it's these, you review it.

Lex Fridman (1:55:36.940)

And the one, the things you remember,

Tim Urban (1:55:39.180)

it takes longer and longer to bring back up.

Lex Fridman (1:55:41.380)

It's like flashcards, but a digital app.

Tim Urban (1:55:43.660)

It's called Anki.

Lex Fridman (1:55:44.500)

I recommend it to a lot of people.

Tim Urban (1:55:45.340)

There's a huge community of people

Lex Fridman (1:55:46.780)

that are just like obsessed with it.

Lex Fridman (1:55:48.100)

Anki?

Lex Fridman (1:55:49.740)

A N K I.

Lex Fridman (1:55:51.660)

So this is extremely well known app and idea,

Lex Fridman (1:55:55.620)

like among students who are like medical students,

Tim Urban (1:55:59.460)

like people that really have to study.

Lex Fridman (1:56:01.820)

Like this is not like fun stuff.

Tim Urban (1:56:03.740)

They really have to memorize a lot of things.

Lex Fridman (1:56:06.300)

They have to remember them well.

Tim Urban (1:56:07.380)

They have to be able to integrate them

Lex Fridman (1:56:08.540)

with a bunch of ideas.

Lex Fridman (1:56:10.180)

And I find it to be really useful for like,

Lex Fridman (1:56:13.460)

when you read history,

Tim Urban (1:56:14.820)

if you think this particular factoid,

Lex Fridman (1:56:17.820)

they'd probably be extremely useful for you.

Tim Urban (1:56:19.780)

Cause you're, that'd be interesting actually thought.

Lex Fridman (1:56:23.460)

Cause you're doing, you talked about like opening up

Tim Urban (1:56:25.540)

a trillion tabs and reading things.

Lex Fridman (1:56:29.260)

You know, you probably want to remember some facts

Tim Urban (1:56:32.260)

you read along the way.

Lex Fridman (1:56:33.540)

Like you might remember, okay,

Tim Urban (1:56:34.940)

this thing I can't directly put into the writing,

Lex Fridman (1:56:37.060)

but it's a cool little factoid.

Tim Urban (1:56:38.860)

I want to.

Lex Fridman (1:56:39.700)

Oh, all the time.

Tim Urban (1:56:40.540)

Store that in there.

Lex Fridman (1:56:41.460)

And that's why I go Anki, drop it in.

Tim Urban (1:56:43.900)

Oh, you can just drop it in.

Lex Fridman (1:56:45.020)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (1:56:45.860)

You drop it in a line of a podcast or like a video?

Lex Fridman (1:56:48.620)

Well, no.

Tim Urban (1:56:49.620)

I guess I can type it though.

Lex Fridman (1:56:50.580)

So yes.

Lex Fridman (1:56:51.420)

So Anki, there's a bunch of,

Lex Fridman (1:56:53.740)

it's called Space Repetitions.

Tim Urban (1:56:54.900)

There's a bunch of apps that are much nicer than Anki.

Lex Fridman (1:56:57.060)

Anki is the ghetto, like Craigslist version,

Lex Fridman (1:57:00.500)

but it has a giant community because people are like,

Lex Fridman (1:57:02.940)

we don't want features.

Tim Urban (1:57:04.540)

We want a text box.

Lex Fridman (1:57:06.620)

Like it's very basic, very stripped down.

Lex Fridman (1:57:08.820)

So you can drop in stuff.

Lex Fridman (1:57:09.900)

You can drop it.

Tim Urban (1:57:10.740)

That sounds really,

Lex Fridman (1:57:11.580)

I can't believe I have not come across this.

Tim Urban (1:57:13.460)

You actually, once you look into it,

Lex Fridman (1:57:15.100)

you'll realize that how have I not come,

Tim Urban (1:57:18.300)

you are the person,

Lex Fridman (1:57:20.100)

I guarantee you'll probably write a blog about it.

Tim Urban (1:57:22.020)

I can't believe you actually have it.

Lex Fridman (1:57:23.260)

Well, it's also just like.

Tim Urban (1:57:24.100)

It's your people too.

Lex Fridman (1:57:25.100)

And my people say, what do you write about?

Tim Urban (1:57:28.220)

Literally anything I find interesting.

Lex Fridman (1:57:30.740)

And so for me, once you start a blog,

Tim Urban (1:57:33.740)

like your entire worldview becomes,

Lex Fridman (1:57:36.700)

would this be a good blog post?

Tim Urban (1:57:37.700)

Would this be, I mean, that's the lens

Lex Fridman (1:57:39.220)

I see everything through,

Lex Fridman (1:57:40.260)

but I constantly coming across something

Lex Fridman (1:57:42.780)

or just a tweet, something that I'm like,

Tim Urban (1:57:46.380)

ooh, I need to like share this with my readers.

Lex Fridman (1:57:47.940)

My readers to me are like my friends who I'm like,

Tim Urban (1:57:52.740)

I'm gonna, oh, I need to show,

Lex Fridman (1:57:53.900)

I need to tell them about this.

Lex Fridman (1:57:55.260)

And so I feel like just a place to,

Lex Fridman (1:57:56.420)

I mean, I collect things in a document right now,

Tim Urban (1:57:58.100)

if it's like really good,

Lex Fridman (1:57:58.940)

but it's the little factoids and stuff like that.

Tim Urban (1:58:01.020)

I think, especially if I'm learning something,

Lex Fridman (1:58:02.780)

if I'm like.

Lex Fridman (1:58:03.620)

So the problem is when you say stuff,

Lex Fridman (1:58:05.140)

when you look at it, like tweet and all that kind of stuff

Tim Urban (1:58:07.940)

is you also need to couple that with a system for review.

Lex Fridman (1:58:11.540)

Cause what Anki does is like literally,

Tim Urban (1:58:14.060)

it determines for me, I don't have to do anything.

Lex Fridman (1:58:16.460)

There's this giant pile of things I've saved

Lex Fridman (1:58:18.660)

and it brings up to me, okay, here's, I don't know.

Lex Fridman (1:58:25.380)

When Churchill did something, right?

Tim Urban (1:58:27.700)

I'm reading about World War II a lot now,

Lex Fridman (1:58:29.860)

like a particular event, here's that.

Lex Fridman (1:58:31.900)

Do you remember when, what year that happened?

Lex Fridman (1:58:33.940)

And you say yes or no, or like you get to pick,

Tim Urban (1:58:38.700)

you get to see the answer and you get to self evaluate

Lex Fridman (1:58:42.100)

how well you remember that fact.

Lex Fridman (1:58:43.380)

And if you remember well,

Lex Fridman (1:58:44.340)

it'll be another month before you see it again.

Tim Urban (1:58:46.900)

If you don't remember, it'll bring it up again.

Lex Fridman (1:58:48.900)

That's a way to review tweets, to review concepts.

Lex Fridman (1:58:52.260)

And it offloads the kind of,

Lex Fridman (1:58:54.740)

the process of selecting which parts

Tim Urban (1:58:56.340)

you're supposed to review or not.

Lex Fridman (1:58:57.420)

And you can grow that library.

Tim Urban (1:58:58.980)

I mean, obviously medical students use it

Lex Fridman (1:59:00.820)

for like tens of thousands of facts and it's.

Tim Urban (1:59:04.100)

It just gamifies it too.

Lex Fridman (1:59:05.140)

It's like you can passively sit back and just,

Lex Fridman (1:59:07.820)

and the thing will like make sure

Lex Fridman (1:59:09.140)

you eventually learn it all.

Tim Urban (1:59:10.300)

This is, you know, you don't have to be the executive

Lex Fridman (1:59:13.500)

calling that like the program,

Tim Urban (1:59:15.340)

the memorization program someone else is handling.

Lex Fridman (1:59:17.500)

I would love to hear about like you trying it out

Tim Urban (1:59:20.900)

or space repetition as an idea.

Lex Fridman (1:59:22.380)

There's a few other apps, but Anki's the big master.

Tim Urban (1:59:24.860)

I totally want to try.

Lex Fridman (1:59:26.180)

You've written and spoken quite a bit about procrastination.

Tim Urban (1:59:29.180)

I like you suffer from procrastination

Lex Fridman (1:59:32.820)

like many other people, suffering quotes.

Lex Fridman (1:59:37.660)

How do we avoid procrastination?

Lex Fridman (1:59:39.740)

I don't think the suffer is in quotes.

Tim Urban (1:59:43.620)

I think that's a huge part of the problem

Lex Fridman (1:59:45.680)

is that it's treated like a silly problem.

Tim Urban (1:59:50.720)

People don't take it seriously as a dire problem,

Lex Fridman (1:59:56.260)

but it can be.

Tim Urban (1:59:57.880)

It can ruin your life.

Lex Fridman (20:01.880)

they could say, okay, I want, you know,

Tim Urban (20:02.960)

everyone who can do this to walk west, you know,

Lex Fridman (20:05.940)

until you get to this little hub and everyone else,

Tim Urban (20:08.200)

you know, and they could actually coordinate,

Lex Fridman (20:10.200)

but we don't have that.

Lex Fridman (20:11.120)

So it's like people just, you know,

Lex Fridman (20:12.240)

and then what I think about is,

Lex Fridman (20:14.080)

so you've got some people that are like trying to organize

Lex Fridman (20:15.960)

and you'll have a little community

Tim Urban (20:17.120)

where a couple hundred people have come together

Lex Fridman (20:18.640)

and maybe a couple thousand have organized

Lex Fridman (20:20.120)

and they designated one person, you know, as the leader

Lex Fridman (20:22.320)

and then they have sub leaders and okay,

Tim Urban (20:24.360)

we have a start here.

Lex Fridman (20:25.200)

We have some organization.

Tim Urban (20:26.320)

You're also gonna have some people that say, good,

Lex Fridman (20:28.880)

humans were scourged upon the earth and this is good.

Lex Fridman (20:31.600)

And they're gonna try to sabotage.

Lex Fridman (20:32.560)

They're gonna try to murder the people with the,

Lex Fridman (20:33.880)

and who know what they're talking about.

Lex Fridman (20:35.880)

Yeah.

Tim Urban (20:37.760)

The elite that possessed the knowledge.

Lex Fridman (20:40.880)

Well, and so everyone, maybe everyone's hopeful

Tim Urban (20:42.720)

for the, you know, we're all civilized and hopeful

Lex Fridman (20:44.320)

for the first 30 days or something.

Lex Fridman (20:45.720)

And then things start to fall off.

Lex Fridman (20:47.120)

They, you know, people get, start to lose hope

Lex Fridman (20:48.760)

and there's new kinds of, you know,

Lex Fridman (20:50.280)

new kinds of governments popping up, you know,

Tim Urban (20:52.200)

new kinds of societies and they're, you know,

Lex Fridman (20:55.960)

and they don't play nicely with the other ones.

Lex Fridman (20:57.680)

And I think very quickly,

Lex Fridman (20:59.180)

I think a lot of people would just give up and say,

Tim Urban (21:00.460)

you know what, this is it.

Lex Fridman (21:01.300)

We're back in the stone age.

Tim Urban (21:02.120)

Let's just create, you know, agrarian.

Lex Fridman (21:03.800)

We don't also don't know how to farm.

Tim Urban (21:05.040)

No one knows how to farm.

Lex Fridman (21:06.080)

There's like, even the farmers, you know,

Tim Urban (21:08.480)

a lot of them are relying on their machines.

Lex Fridman (21:11.040)

And so we also, you know, mass starvation.

Lex Fridman (21:14.680)

And that, you know, when you're trying to organize,

Lex Fridman (21:16.420)

a lot of people are, you know, coming in with, you know,

Tim Urban (21:18.740)

spears they've fashioned and trying to murder everyone

Lex Fridman (21:21.840)

who has food.

Tim Urban (21:22.680)

That's an interesting question.

Lex Fridman (21:23.520)

Given today's society, how much violence would that be?

Tim Urban (21:25.640)

We've gotten softer, less violent.

Lex Fridman (21:28.000)

And we don't have weapons.

Lex Fridman (21:29.040)

So that's something. We don't have weapons.

Lex Fridman (21:29.880)

We have really primitive weapons now.

Lex Fridman (21:31.720)

But we have, and also we have a kind of ethics

Lex Fridman (21:33.980)

where murder is bad.

Tim Urban (21:35.640)

We used to be less, like human life was less valued

Lex Fridman (21:38.920)

in the past.

Lex Fridman (21:39.760)

So murder was more okay, like ethically.

Lex Fridman (21:41.920)

But in the past, they also were really good

Tim Urban (21:44.320)

at figuring out how to have sustenance.

Lex Fridman (21:46.300)

They knew how to get food and water because they,

Lex Fridman (21:48.640)

so we have no idea.

Lex Fridman (21:49.800)

Like the ancient hunter gatherer societies would laugh

Tim Urban (21:51.980)

at what's going on here.

Lex Fridman (21:52.840)

They'd say, you guys, you don't know what you're,

Tim Urban (21:54.280)

none of you know what you're doing.

Lex Fridman (21:55.400)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (21:56.240)

And also the amount of people feeding this amount of people

Lex Fridman (21:59.360)

in a very, in a stone age, you know, civilization,

Tim Urban (22:02.200)

that's not gonna happen.

Lex Fridman (22:03.800)

So New York and San Francisco are screwed.

Tim Urban (22:05.960)

Well, whoever's not near water is really screwed.

Lex Fridman (22:07.840)

So that's, you're near a river or freshwater river.

Lex Fridman (22:10.120)

And you know, anyway, it's a very interesting question.

Lex Fridman (22:12.400)

And what it does, this and the pencil,

Tim Urban (22:14.440)

it makes me feel so grateful and like excited about like,

Lex Fridman (22:19.220)

man, our civilization is so cool.

Lex Fridman (22:21.560)

And this is, talk about collective intelligence.

Lex Fridman (22:24.440)

Humans did not build any of this.

Tim Urban (22:28.040)

It's collective human super,

Lex Fridman (22:30.440)

collective humans is a super intelligent,

Tim Urban (22:32.760)

you know, being that is, that can do absolutely,

Lex Fridman (22:37.200)

especially over a long period of time,

Tim Urban (22:38.560)

can do such magical things.

Lex Fridman (22:39.640)

And we just get to be born, when I go out,

Tim Urban (22:41.800)

when I'm working and I'm hungry,

Lex Fridman (22:42.940)

I just go click, click, click, and like a salad's coming.

Tim Urban (22:46.320)

The salad arrives.

Lex Fridman (22:47.160)

If you think about the incredible infrastructure

Tim Urban (22:50.040)

that's in place for that, for that quickly,

Lex Fridman (22:52.040)

or just the internet to, you know, the electricity,

Tim Urban (22:54.380)

first of all, that's just powering the things, you know,

Lex Fridman (22:55.960)

how the, where the, the amount of structures

Tim Urban (22:57.960)

that have to be created and for that electricity to be there.

Lex Fridman (23:00.640)

And then you've got the, you've of course the internet,

Lex Fridman (23:02.560)

and then you have this system where delivery drivers

Lex Fridman (23:05.560)

and they have, they're riding bikes

Tim Urban (23:06.600)

that were made by someone else.

Lex Fridman (23:07.640)

And they're going to get the salad

Lex Fridman (23:09.120)

and all those ingredients came from all over the place.

Lex Fridman (23:11.480)

I mean, it's just, so I think it's like,

Tim Urban (23:13.600)

I like thinking about these things

Lex Fridman (23:15.360)

because it makes me feel like just so grateful.

Tim Urban (23:19.220)

I'm like, man, it would be so awful if we didn't have this.

Lex Fridman (23:21.300)

And people who didn't have it would think

Tim Urban (23:22.720)

this was such magic we live in and we do.

Lex Fridman (23:25.180)

And like, cool, that's fun.

Tim Urban (23:27.520)

Yeah, one of the most amazing things when I showed up,

Lex Fridman (23:29.640)

I came here at 13 from the Soviet Union

Lex Fridman (23:32.160)

and the supermarket was, people don't really realize that,

Lex Fridman (23:36.560)

but the abundance of food, it's not even,

Lex Fridman (23:41.240)

so bananas was the thing I was obsessed about.

Lex Fridman (23:43.440)

I just ate bananas every day for many, many months

Tim Urban (23:45.760)

because they haven't had bananas in Russia.

Lex Fridman (23:47.720)

And the fact that you can have as many bananas as you want,

Tim Urban (23:49.800)

plus they were like somewhat inexpensive

Lex Fridman (23:53.320)

relative to the other food.

Tim Urban (23:56.160)

The fact that you can somehow have a system

Lex Fridman (23:58.080)

that brings bananas to you without having to wait

Tim Urban (24:00.200)

in a long line, all of those things,

Lex Fridman (24:02.040)

it's magic.

Tim Urban (24:03.240)

I mean, also imagine, so first of all,

Lex Fridman (24:06.000)

the ancient hunter gatherers,

Tim Urban (24:07.640)

you picture the mother gathering and eating

Lex Fridman (24:08.960)

for all this fresh food, no.

Lex Fridman (24:10.360)

So do you know what an avocado used to look like?

Lex Fridman (24:11.960)

It was a little like a sphere and the fruit of it,

Tim Urban (24:15.920)

the actual avocado part was like a little tiny layer

Lex Fridman (24:18.280)

around this big pit that took up almost the whole volume.

Tim Urban (24:21.440)

We've made crazy robot avocados today

Lex Fridman (24:25.840)

that have nothing to do with like what they,

Lex Fridman (24:28.280)

so same with bananas, these big, sweet, you know,

Lex Fridman (24:33.280)

and not infested with bugs and, you know,

Tim Urban (24:35.760)

they used to eat the shittiest food

Lex Fridman (24:38.640)

and they're eating uncooked meat

Tim Urban (24:40.840)

or maybe they cook it and they're just, it's gross

Lex Fridman (24:42.840)

and it's things rot.

Lex Fridman (24:44.680)

So you go to the supermarket and it's just,

Lex Fridman (24:47.240)

A, it's like crazy super engineered cartoon food,

Tim Urban (24:49.960)

fruit and food.

Lex Fridman (24:51.360)

And then it's all this processed food,

Tim Urban (24:52.480)

which, you know, we complain about in our setting.

Lex Fridman (24:54.120)

Oh, you know, we complain about, you know,

Tim Urban (24:55.240)

we need too much process.

Lex Fridman (24:56.720)

That's a, this is a good problem.

Tim Urban (24:58.280)

I mean, if you imagine what they would think,

Lex Fridman (25:00.360)

oh my God, a cracker.

Lex Fridman (25:01.400)

You know how delicious a cracker would taste to them?

Lex Fridman (25:04.280)

You know, candy, you know, pasta and spaghetti.

Tim Urban (25:08.120)

They never had anything like this.

Lex Fridman (25:09.360)

And then you have from all over the world,

Tim Urban (25:11.440)

I mean, things that are grown all over the place,

Lex Fridman (25:13.960)

all here in nice little racks organized

Lex Fridman (25:16.040)

and on a middle class salary,

Lex Fridman (25:17.920)

you can afford anything you want.

Tim Urban (25:20.040)

I mean, it's again, just like incredible gratitude.

Lex Fridman (25:23.200)

Like, ah, yeah.

Lex Fridman (25:25.120)

And the question is how resilient is this whole thing?

Lex Fridman (25:27.440)

I mean, this is another darker version of your question is

Tim Urban (25:31.840)

if we keep all the material possessions we have,

Lex Fridman (25:35.240)

but we start knocking out some percent of the population,

Lex Fridman (25:39.520)

how resilient is the system that we built up

Lex Fridman (25:42.080)

where we rely on other humans

Lex Fridman (25:43.920)

and the knowledge that built up on the past,

Lex Fridman (25:45.880)

the distributed nature of knowledge,

Lex Fridman (25:50.120)

how much does it take?

Lex Fridman (25:52.960)

How many humans need to disappear

Lex Fridman (25:55.480)

for us to be completely lost?

Lex Fridman (25:57.840)

Well, I'm trying to go off one thing,

Tim Urban (25:59.160)

which is Elon Musk says that he has this number,

Lex Fridman (26:02.480)

a million in mind as the order of magnitude of people

Tim Urban (26:05.920)

you need to be on Mars to truly be multi planetary.

Lex Fridman (26:11.760)

Multi planetary doesn't mean, you know,

Tim Urban (26:15.000)

like when Neil Armstrong, you know, goes to the moon,

Lex Fridman (26:19.480)

they call it a great leap for mankind.

Tim Urban (26:21.920)

It's not a great leap for anything.

Lex Fridman (26:23.760)

It is a great achievement for mankind.

Lex Fridman (26:26.760)

And I always like think about if the first fish

Lex Fridman (26:29.440)

to kind of go on land just kind of went up

Lex Fridman (26:31.960)

and gave the shore a high five

Lex Fridman (26:33.320)

and goes back into the water,

Tim Urban (26:34.240)

that's not a great leap for life.

Lex Fridman (26:36.040)

That's a great achievement for that fish.

Lex Fridman (26:37.240)

And there should be a little statue of that fish

Lex Fridman (26:38.520)

and it's, you know, in the water

Lex Fridman (26:39.680)

and everyone should celebrate the fish.

Lex Fridman (26:41.400)

But it's, but when we talk about a great leap for life,

Tim Urban (26:44.880)

it's permanent.

Lex Fridman (26:45.720)

It's something that now from now on, this is how things are.

Lex Fridman (26:48.680)

So this is part of why I get so excited about Mars,

Lex Fridman (26:51.080)

by the way, is because you can count on one hand,

Tim Urban (26:53.800)

like the number of great leaps that we've had,

Lex Fridman (26:57.120)

you know, like no life to life and single cell

Tim Urban (27:00.840)

or simple cell to complex cell

Lex Fridman (27:02.680)

and single cell organisms to animals to come,

Tim Urban (27:06.000)

you know, multi cell animals and then ocean to land

Lex Fridman (27:09.200)

and then one planet to two planets, anyway, diversion.

Lex Fridman (27:12.640)

But the point is that we are officially that leap

Lex Fridman (27:17.120)

for all of life, you know, has happened

Tim Urban (27:19.880)

once the ships could stop coming from Earth

Lex Fridman (27:22.680)

because there's some horrible catastrophic World War III

Lex Fridman (27:24.760)

and everyone dies on Earth and they're fine

Lex Fridman (27:26.240)

and they can turn that certain X number of people

Tim Urban (27:29.160)

into 7 billion, you know, population

Lex Fridman (27:31.680)

that's thriving just like Earth.

Tim Urban (27:33.000)

They can build ships, they can come back

Lex Fridman (27:34.400)

and recolonize Earth

Tim Urban (27:35.240)

because now we are officially multi planetary

Lex Fridman (27:37.160)

where it's a self sustaining.

Tim Urban (27:38.800)

He says a million people is about what he thinks.

Lex Fridman (27:40.800)

Now that might be a specialized group.

Tim Urban (27:42.520)

That's a very specifically, you know,

Lex Fridman (27:44.560)

selected million that has very, very skilled million people,

Tim Urban (27:49.240)

not just maybe the average million on Earth,

Lex Fridman (27:51.560)

but I think it depends what you're talking about.

Lex Fridman (27:53.160)

But I don't think, you know, so one million is one 7,000th,

Lex Fridman (27:56.120)

one 8,000th of the current population.

Tim Urban (27:58.440)

I think you need a very, very, very small fraction

Lex Fridman (28:02.160)

of humans on Earth to get by.

Tim Urban (28:04.480)

Obviously you're not gonna have

Lex Fridman (28:05.320)

the same thriving civilization

Tim Urban (28:06.920)

if you get to a too small a number,

Lex Fridman (28:08.440)

but it depends who you're killing off, I guess,

Tim Urban (28:10.640)

is part of the question.

Lex Fridman (28:11.920)

Yeah, if you killed off half of the people

Tim Urban (28:14.280)

just randomly right now, I think we'd be fine.

Lex Fridman (28:15.680)

It would be obviously a great awful tragedy.

Tim Urban (28:18.720)

I think if you killed off three quarters

Lex Fridman (28:19.920)

of all people randomly,

Tim Urban (28:20.760)

just three out of every four people drops dead.

Lex Fridman (28:22.440)

I think we'd have, obviously the stock market would crash.

Tim Urban (28:24.800)

We'd have a rough patch,

Lex Fridman (28:27.040)

but I almost can assure you that the species would be fine.

Tim Urban (28:30.520)

Well, cause the million number,

Lex Fridman (28:31.760)

like you said, it is specialized.

Lex Fridman (28:33.780)

So I think, cause you have to do this,

Lex Fridman (28:39.080)

you have to basically do the iPhone experiment.

Tim Urban (28:41.680)

Like literally you have to be able to manufacture computers.

Lex Fridman (28:46.160)

Yeah, everything.

Tim Urban (28:47.000)

If you're gonna have the self sustaining means

Lex Fridman (28:48.480)

you can, any major important skill,

Tim Urban (28:50.840)

any important piece of kind of infrastructure on earth

Lex Fridman (28:53.600)

can be built there just as well.

Tim Urban (28:57.560)

It'd be interesting to list out

Lex Fridman (29:00.200)

what are the important things,

Lex Fridman (29:01.940)

what are the important skills?

Lex Fridman (29:03.400)

Yeah, I mean, if you have to feed everyone,

Lex Fridman (29:05.980)

so mass farming, things like that,

Lex Fridman (29:08.880)

you have to, you have to, you have mining,

Tim Urban (29:12.040)

these questions, it's like the materials might be,

Lex Fridman (29:15.300)

I don't know, five mile, two miles underground,

Tim Urban (29:17.660)

I don't know what the actual, but like,

Lex Fridman (29:20.400)

it's amazing to me just that these things

Tim Urban (29:22.080)

got built in the first place.

Lex Fridman (29:23.080)

And they never got, no one built the first,

Tim Urban (29:25.320)

the mine that we're getting stuff for the iPhone for

Lex Fridman (29:28.200)

probably wasn't built for the iPhone.

Tim Urban (29:30.720)

Or in general, early mining was for,

Lex Fridman (29:33.280)

I think obviously I assume the industrial revolution

Tim Urban (29:35.520)

when we realized, oh, fossil fuels,

Lex Fridman (29:37.040)

we wanna extract this magical energy source.

Tim Urban (29:40.080)

I assume that like mining took a huge leap

Lex Fridman (29:42.240)

without knowing very much about this.

Tim Urban (29:43.400)

I think you're gonna need mining,

Lex Fridman (29:45.760)

you're gonna need like a lot of electrical engineers.

Tim Urban (29:48.480)

If you're gonna have a civilization like ours,

Lex Fridman (29:50.080)

and of course you could have oil and lanterns,

Tim Urban (29:51.960)

we could go way back,

Lex Fridman (29:53.200)

but if you're trying to build our today thing,

Tim Urban (29:55.280)

you're gonna need energy and electricity

Lex Fridman (29:58.360)

and then mines that can bring materials,

Tim Urban (2:00:03.220)

There's like, we talked about the compiling concept

Lex Fridman (2:00:09.500)

with, you know, if you read a little,

Tim Urban (2:00:11.340)

you know, if you write, if you write two pages a week,

Lex Fridman (2:00:15.580)

you write a book every two years,

Lex Fridman (2:00:16.700)

you're a prolific writer, right?

Lex Fridman (2:00:18.180)

And the difference between, you know,

Tim Urban (2:00:20.260)

again, it's not that that person's working so hard.

Lex Fridman (2:00:22.580)

It's that they have the ability to,

Tim Urban (2:00:24.660)

when they commit to something like on Sunday mornings,

Lex Fridman (2:00:26.460)

I'm gonna write two pages.

Tim Urban (2:00:27.720)

That's it.

Lex Fridman (2:00:29.420)

They respect, they have enough,

Tim Urban (2:00:33.860)

they respect the part of them that made that decision

Lex Fridman (2:00:36.780)

is a respected character in their brain.

Lex Fridman (2:00:39.460)

And they say, well, that's, I decided it,

Lex Fridman (2:00:41.300)

so I'm gonna do it.

Tim Urban (2:00:43.100)

The procrastinator won't do those two pages.

Lex Fridman (2:00:46.780)

That's just exactly the kind of thing

Tim Urban (2:00:48.580)

the procrastinator will keep on their list

Lex Fridman (2:00:50.060)

and they will not do.

Lex Fridman (2:00:51.020)

But that doesn't mean they're any less talented

Lex Fridman (2:00:53.420)

than the writer who does the two pages.

Tim Urban (2:00:54.980)

Doesn't mean they want it any less.

Lex Fridman (2:00:57.380)

Maybe they want it even more.

Lex Fridman (2:00:58.900)

And it doesn't mean that they wouldn't be just as happy

Lex Fridman (2:01:01.280)

having done it as the writer who does it.

Lex Fridman (2:01:03.660)

So what they're missing out on,

Lex Fridman (2:01:05.100)

picture a writer who writes 10 books, you know,

Tim Urban (2:01:07.980)

bestsellers, and they go on these book tours

Lex Fridman (2:01:11.100)

and, you know, they, and they just are so gratified

Tim Urban (2:01:15.300)

with their career and, you know,

Lex Fridman (2:01:16.260)

and they think about what the other person is missing

Lex Fridman (2:01:20.600)

who does none of that, right?

Lex Fridman (2:01:23.480)

So that is a massive loss, a massive loss.

Lex Fridman (2:01:27.780)

And it's because the internal mechanism in their brain

Lex Fridman (2:01:32.020)

is not doing what the other person's is.

Lex Fridman (2:01:33.900)

So they don't have the respect for the part of them

Lex Fridman (2:01:36.540)

that made the choice.

Tim Urban (2:01:37.980)

They feel like it's someone they can disregard.

Lex Fridman (2:01:40.020)

And so to me, it's in the same boat

Tim Urban (2:01:42.760)

as someone who is obese because their eating habits

Lex Fridman (2:01:47.180)

make them obese over time or their exercise habits.

Lex Fridman (2:01:50.800)

So that, you know, that's a huge loss for that person.

Lex Fridman (2:01:54.360)

That person is, you know, the health problems

Lex Fridman (2:01:56.720)

and it's just probably making them miserable.

Lex Fridman (2:01:59.960)

And it's self inflicted, right?

Tim Urban (2:02:01.960)

It's self defeating, but that doesn't make an easy problem

Lex Fridman (2:02:05.760)

to fix just because you're doing it to yourself.

Lex Fridman (2:02:07.520)

So to me, procrastination is another one of these

Lex Fridman (2:02:09.400)

where you are the only person in your own way.

Tim Urban (2:02:11.840)

You are, you know, you are failing at something

Lex Fridman (2:02:15.260)

or not doing something that you really want to do.

Tim Urban (2:02:17.640)

You know, it doesn't have to be work.

Lex Fridman (2:02:18.920)

Maybe you're, you want to get out of that marriage

Tim Urban (2:02:21.280)

that you know, you realize it hits you.

Lex Fridman (2:02:23.080)

You shouldn't be in this marriage.

Tim Urban (2:02:24.320)

You should get divorced and you wait 20 extra years

Lex Fridman (2:02:26.540)

before you do it or you don't do it at all.

Tim Urban (2:02:30.400)

That is, you know, you're not living the life

Lex Fridman (2:02:33.700)

that you know you should be living, right?

Lex Fridman (2:02:35.120)

And so I think it's fascinating.

Lex Fridman (2:02:38.040)

Now, the problem is it's also a funny problem

Tim Urban (2:02:39.960)

because there's short term procrastination,

Lex Fridman (2:02:43.040)

which I talk about as, you know,

Tim Urban (2:02:44.240)

the kind that has a deadline.

Lex Fridman (2:02:45.720)

Now, some people, you know,

Tim Urban (2:02:48.000)

this is when I bring in, there's different characters.

Lex Fridman (2:02:50.520)

There's the panic monster comes in the room

Lex Fridman (2:02:52.520)

and that's when you actually, you know,

Lex Fridman (2:02:54.440)

the procrastinator can, there's different levels.

Tim Urban (2:02:57.720)

There's the kind that even when there's a deadline,

Lex Fridman (2:03:02.480)

they stop panicking.

Tim Urban (2:03:03.600)

They just, they've given up

Lex Fridman (2:03:04.600)

and they really have a problem.

Tim Urban (2:03:06.420)

Then there's the kind that when there's a deadline,

Lex Fridman (2:03:08.280)

they'll do it, but they'll wait till the last second.

Tim Urban (2:03:10.440)

Both of those people, I think have a huge problem

Lex Fridman (2:03:13.260)

once there's no deadline because,

Lex Fridman (2:03:15.640)

and most of the important things in life,

Lex Fridman (2:03:17.400)

there's no deadline, which is, you know,

Tim Urban (2:03:18.480)

changing your career, you know,

Lex Fridman (2:03:21.120)

becoming a writer when you never have been before,

Tim Urban (2:03:23.180)

getting out of your relationship,

Lex Fridman (2:03:27.000)

you know, be doing whatever you need to,

Tim Urban (2:03:28.480)

the changes you need to make

Lex Fridman (2:03:29.580)

in order to get into a relation.

Tim Urban (2:03:31.020)

There's a thing after it.

Lex Fridman (2:03:32.680)

Launching a startup.

Lex Fridman (2:03:33.760)

Launching a startup, right?

Lex Fridman (2:03:35.360)

Or once you've launched a startup,

Lex Fridman (2:03:37.280)

firing is the right, someone that needs to be fired, right?

Lex Fridman (2:03:40.080)

I mean, going out for fundraising

Tim Urban (2:03:41.920)

instead of just trying to, you know,

Lex Fridman (2:03:43.360)

there's so many moments when the big change

Tim Urban (2:03:46.400)

that you know you should be making

Lex Fridman (2:03:48.320)

that would completely change your life

Tim Urban (2:03:49.960)

if you just did it has no deadline.

Lex Fridman (2:03:53.200)

It just has to be coming from yourself.

Lex Fridman (2:03:55.560)

And I think that a ton of people have a problem

Lex Fridman (2:04:01.060)

where they will, they think this delusion

Tim Urban (2:04:04.880)

that, you know, I'm gonna do that.

Lex Fridman (2:04:05.840)

I'm definitely gonna do that, you know,

Lex Fridman (2:04:07.240)

but not this week, not this month,

Lex Fridman (2:04:09.360)

not today, because whatever.

Lex Fridman (2:04:10.840)

And they make this excuse again and again,

Lex Fridman (2:04:12.280)

and it just sits there on their list collecting dust.

Lex Fridman (2:04:15.060)

And so, yeah, to me, it is a very real suffering.

Lex Fridman (2:04:20.660)

And the fix isn't fixing the habits.

Tim Urban (2:04:23.740)

Just like not working on the fix, first of all.

Lex Fridman (2:04:27.580)

So there's, okay, there is,

Tim Urban (2:04:32.360)

there's, just that you have a boat that sucks

Lex Fridman (2:04:34.980)

and it's leaking and it's gonna sink.

Tim Urban (2:04:37.300)

You can fix it with duct tape for a couple of,

Lex Fridman (2:04:40.060)

you know, for one ride or whatever.

Tim Urban (2:04:42.280)

That's not really fixing the boat,

Lex Fridman (2:04:43.760)

but you can get you by.

Lex Fridman (2:04:44.860)

So there's duct tape solutions.

Lex Fridman (2:04:47.300)

To me, so the panic monster is the character

Tim Urban (2:04:49.180)

that rushes into the room once the deadline gets too close

Lex Fridman (2:04:52.100)

or once there's some scary external pressure,

Tim Urban (2:04:54.560)

not just from yourself.

Lex Fridman (2:04:55.500)

And that's a huge aid to a lot of procrastinators.

Tim Urban (2:04:59.140)

Again, there's a lot of people who won't,

Lex Fridman (2:05:00.820)

you know, do that thing.

Tim Urban (2:05:02.140)

They've been writing that book they wanted to write,

Lex Fridman (2:05:03.700)

but there's way fewer people

Tim Urban (2:05:05.060)

who will not show up to the exam.

Lex Fridman (2:05:07.100)

You know, most people show up to the exam.

Lex Fridman (2:05:08.940)

So that's because the panic monster

Lex Fridman (2:05:12.380)

is gonna freak out if they don't.

Lex Fridman (2:05:14.640)

So you can create a panic monster.

Lex Fridman (2:05:16.660)

If you wanna, you know, you really wanna write music,

Tim Urban (2:05:19.340)

you really wanna become a singer, songwriter,

Lex Fridman (2:05:20.800)

well, book a venue, tell 40 people about it

Lex Fridman (2:05:25.620)

and say, hey, on, you know, this day, two months from now,

Lex Fridman (2:05:28.020)

come and see, I'm gonna play you some of my songs.

Tim Urban (2:05:30.340)

You now have a panic monster, you're gonna write songs.

Lex Fridman (2:05:31.940)

You're gonna have to, right?

Lex Fridman (2:05:33.400)

So there's duct tape things.

Lex Fridman (2:05:37.460)

You know, you can do things, you know, people do,

Tim Urban (2:05:39.100)

I've done a lot of this with a friend and I say,

Lex Fridman (2:05:41.560)

if I don't get X done by a week from now,

Tim Urban (2:05:44.620)

I have to donate a lot of money

Lex Fridman (2:05:47.380)

somewhere I don't wanna donate.

Lex Fridman (2:05:48.300)

And that's, you would put that

Lex Fridman (2:05:49.460)

in the category of duct tape solutions.

Lex Fridman (2:05:51.500)

Yeah, because it's not, why do I need that, right?

Lex Fridman (2:05:55.240)

If I really had solved this,

Tim Urban (2:05:56.560)

this is something I want to do for me, it's selfish.

Lex Fridman (2:05:58.980)

This is, I just literally just want to be selfish here

Lex Fridman (2:06:01.420)

and do the work I need to do

Lex Fridman (2:06:02.740)

to get the goals I wanna get, right?

Tim Urban (2:06:04.300)

There's a much, all the incentives

Lex Fridman (2:06:07.500)

should be in the right place.

Lex Fridman (2:06:08.580)

And yet, if I don't say that,

Lex Fridman (2:06:10.460)

it'll be a week from now and I won't have done it.

Tim Urban (2:06:12.060)

Something weird is going on, there's some resistance,

Lex Fridman (2:06:14.100)

there's some force that is prevent,

Lex Fridman (2:06:16.020)

that is in my own way, right?

Lex Fridman (2:06:17.800)

And so doing something where I have to pay all this money,

Tim Urban (2:06:21.180)

okay, now I'll panic and I'll do it.

Lex Fridman (2:06:22.500)

So that's duct tape.

Tim Urban (2:06:23.940)

Fixing the boat is something where I don't have to do that.

Lex Fridman (2:06:27.380)

I just will do the things that I,

Tim Urban (2:06:29.100)

again, it's not, I'm talking about super crazy work ethic.

Lex Fridman (2:06:33.060)

Just like, for example, okay, I have a lot of examples

Tim Urban (2:06:36.540)

because I have a serious problem that I've been working on.

Lex Fridman (2:06:40.140)

And in some ways I've gotten really successful

Tim Urban (2:06:41.740)

at solving it and in other ways I'm still floundering.

Lex Fridman (2:06:44.740)

So.

Tim Urban (2:06:45.580)

Yeah, the world's greatest duct taper.

Lex Fridman (2:06:47.540)

Yes, well, I'm pretty good at duct taping.

Tim Urban (2:06:49.980)

I probably could be even better and I'm like, and I'm.

Lex Fridman (2:06:52.420)

You're procrastinating and becoming a better duct taper.

Tim Urban (2:06:54.860)

Literally, like, yes, there's nothing, I won't.

Lex Fridman (2:06:57.540)

So here's what I know what I should do as a writer, right?

Tim Urban (2:07:00.780)

It's very obvious to me is that I should wake up.

Lex Fridman (2:07:03.640)

Doesn't have to be crazy,

Tim Urban (2:07:04.480)

I don't wanna 6 a.m. or anything insane

Lex Fridman (2:07:06.020)

or I'm not gonna be one of those crazy people at 5.30 jogs.

Tim Urban (2:07:10.620)

I'm gonna wake up at whatever, you know, 7.30, 8, 8.30

Lex Fridman (2:07:14.380)

and I should have a block, like, just say nine to noon

Tim Urban (2:07:18.620)

where I get up and I just really quick make some coffee

Lex Fridman (2:07:22.900)

and write.

Tim Urban (2:07:23.740)

It's obvious because all the great writers in history

Lex Fridman (2:07:26.900)

did exactly that, some.

Tim Urban (2:07:28.200)

Some of them have done that, that's common.

Lex Fridman (2:07:30.140)

There's some that I like these writers,

Tim Urban (2:07:31.520)

they do the late night sessions,

Lex Fridman (2:07:32.700)

but most of them they do wake up.

Lex Fridman (2:07:33.540)

But there's a session, but there's a session that's.

Lex Fridman (2:07:36.280)

Most writers write in the morning and there's a reason.

Tim Urban (2:07:38.460)

I don't think I'm different than those people.

Lex Fridman (2:07:41.060)

It's a great time to write, you're fresh, right?

Tim Urban (2:07:43.780)

Your ideas from dreaming have kind of collected,

Lex Fridman (2:07:46.820)

you have all, you know, new answers

Tim Urban (2:07:48.540)

that you didn't have yesterday and you can just go.

Lex Fridman (2:07:51.140)

But more importantly, if I just had a routine

Tim Urban (2:07:53.340)

where I wrote from nine to noon, weekdays.

Lex Fridman (2:07:58.000)

Every week would have a minimum of 15 focused hours

Tim Urban (2:08:02.260)

of writing, which doesn't sound like a lot, but it's a lot.

Lex Fridman (2:08:04.700)

A 15, 15, no, this is no joke.

Tim Urban (2:08:06.940)

This is, you know, you're not, your phone's away,

Lex Fridman (2:08:09.600)

you're not talking to anyone, you're not opening your email,

Tim Urban (2:08:11.660)

you are focused writing for three hours, five.

Lex Fridman (2:08:14.100)

That's a big week for most writers, right?

Lex Fridman (2:08:16.580)

So now what's happening is that every weekday

Lex Fridman (2:08:18.820)

is a minimum of a B, I'll give myself.

Tim Urban (2:08:21.460)

You know, an A might be, you know, wow,

Lex Fridman (2:08:23.100)

I really just got into a flow and wrote for six hours

Lex Fridman (2:08:24.960)

and had, you know, great.

Lex Fridman (2:08:26.080)

But it's a minimum of a B, I can keep going if I want.

Lex Fridman (2:08:28.700)

And every week is a minimum of a B with those 15 hours.

Lex Fridman (2:08:31.380)

Right, and if I just had, talk about compiling,

Tim Urban (2:08:32.980)

if I, this is the two pages a week.

Lex Fridman (2:08:34.300)

If I just did that every week,

Tim Urban (2:08:37.060)

I'd achieve all my writing goals in my life.

Lex Fridman (2:08:39.020)

And yet I wake up and most days I just,

Tim Urban (2:08:42.620)

either I'll revenge procrastination late at night

Lex Fridman (2:08:44.900)

and go to bed way too late and then wake up later

Lex Fridman (2:08:46.380)

and get on a bad schedule and I just fall

Lex Fridman (2:08:47.860)

into these bad schedules.

Tim Urban (2:08:48.700)

Or I'll wake up and there's just, you know,

Lex Fridman (2:08:50.740)

I'll say I was gonna do a few emails and I'll open it up

Lex Fridman (2:08:52.940)

and I'm suddenly on text and I'm texting.

Lex Fridman (2:08:54.900)

Or I'll just go and, you know, I'll make a phone call

Lex Fridman (2:08:56.860)

and I'll be on phone calls for three hours.

Lex Fridman (2:08:58.220)

It's always something.

Tim Urban (2:08:59.420)

Yeah, yeah.

Lex Fridman (2:09:00.260)

Or I'll start writing and then I hit a little bit of a wall,

Lex Fridman (2:09:02.100)

but because there's no sacred,

Lex Fridman (2:09:03.420)

this is a sacred writing block,

Tim Urban (2:09:05.300)

I'll just hit the wall and say, well, this is icky

Lex Fridman (2:09:07.540)

and I'll go do something else.

Lex Fridman (2:09:08.900)

So duct tape, what I've done is,

Lex Fridman (2:09:12.780)

White But Why has one employee, Alisha.

Tim Urban (2:09:14.460)

She's the manager of lots of things.

Lex Fridman (2:09:16.100)

That's her role.

Tim Urban (2:09:17.300)

She truly does lots of things.

Lex Fridman (2:09:20.260)

And one of the things we started doing is,

Tim Urban (2:09:24.020)

either she comes over and sits next to me

Lex Fridman (2:09:25.980)

where she can see my screen from nine to noon.

Tim Urban (2:09:29.300)

That's all it takes.

Lex Fridman (2:09:30.120)

The thing about procrastination is there's usually,

Tim Urban (2:09:31.580)

they're not kicking and screaming.

Lex Fridman (2:09:32.880)

I don't want to do this.

Tim Urban (2:09:33.760)

It's the feeling of, you know, in the old days

Lex Fridman (2:09:35.300)

when you had to go to class,

Tim Urban (2:09:36.780)

you know, your lunch block is over and it's like,

Lex Fridman (2:09:38.540)

oh, shit, I have class in five minutes.

Tim Urban (2:09:40.100)

Or it's Monday morning, you go, oh.

Lex Fridman (2:09:42.600)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (2:09:43.440)

But you said, you know what?

Lex Fridman (2:09:44.260)

But you go, you say, okay.

Lex Fridman (2:09:45.100)

And then you get to class and it's not that bad

Lex Fridman (2:09:46.500)

once you're there, right?

Tim Urban (2:09:48.260)

You know, you have a trainer and he says, okay, next set.

Lex Fridman (2:09:49.900)

And you go, oh, okay.

Lex Fridman (2:09:50.860)

And you do it.

Lex Fridman (2:09:51.700)

That's all it is.

Tim Urban (2:09:52.520)

It's someone, some external thing being like,

Lex Fridman (2:09:55.420)

okay, I have to do this.

Lex Fridman (2:09:56.340)

And then you have that moment of like, it sucks,

Lex Fridman (2:09:58.300)

but I guess I'll do it.

Tim Urban (2:09:59.220)

If no one's there though, the problem with the procrastinator

Lex Fridman (2:10:03.340)

is they don't have that person in their head.

Tim Urban (2:10:04.180)

Other people I think were raised with a sense of shame

Lex Fridman (2:10:05.500)

if they don't do stuff.

Lex Fridman (2:10:06.340)

And that stick in their head is hugely helpful.

Lex Fridman (2:10:09.740)

I don't really have that.

Lex Fridman (2:10:11.020)

And so anyway, Alicia is sitting there next to me.

Lex Fridman (2:10:15.140)

So she's doing her own work, but she can see my screen

Lex Fridman (2:10:17.180)

and she of all people knows exactly what I should be doing,

Lex Fridman (2:10:19.620)

what I shouldn't be doing.

Tim Urban (2:10:21.260)

That's all it takes.

Lex Fridman (2:10:22.500)

The shame of just having her see me

Tim Urban (2:10:24.780)

while she's sitting there not working

Lex Fridman (2:10:26.020)

would just be too, it's too weird and too embarrassing.

Lex Fridman (2:10:27.740)

So I get it done and it's amazing.

Lex Fridman (2:10:29.700)

It's a game changer for me.

Lex Fridman (2:10:31.580)

So duct tape can solve, sometimes duct tape is enough,

Lex Fridman (2:10:34.740)

but I'm curious to, I'm still trying to, what is going on?

Tim Urban (2:10:39.260)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (2:10:40.100)

I think part of it is that we are actually wired.

Tim Urban (2:10:43.580)

I think I'm being very sane human actually

Lex Fridman (2:10:47.220)

is what's happening.

Tim Urban (2:10:48.060)

Or not sane is not the right word.

Lex Fridman (2:10:48.880)

I'm being like, I'm being a natural human

Tim Urban (2:10:52.020)

that we are not programmed to sit there and do homework

Lex Fridman (2:10:55.500)

of a certain kind that we get the results like

Tim Urban (2:10:58.620)

six months later.

Lex Fridman (2:10:59.660)

Like that is not, so we're supposed to conserve energy

Lex Fridman (2:11:03.120)

and fulfill our needs as we need them

Lex Fridman (2:11:05.060)

and do immediate things.

Lex Fridman (2:11:06.700)

And we're overriding our natural ways

Lex Fridman (2:11:10.300)

when we wake up and get to it.

Lex Fridman (2:11:12.060)

And I think sometimes it's because the pain,

Lex Fridman (2:11:14.500)

I think a lot of times we're just avoiding suffering

Lex Fridman (2:11:15.980)

and for a lot of people, the pain of not doing it

Lex Fridman (2:11:18.580)

is actually worse because they feel shame.

Lex Fridman (2:11:20.660)

So if they don't get up and take a jog

Lex Fridman (2:11:22.220)

and get up early and get to work,

Tim Urban (2:11:23.580)

I'll feel like a bad person.

Lex Fridman (2:11:25.820)

And that is worse than doing those things.

Lex Fridman (2:11:28.060)

And then it becomes a habit eventually

Lex Fridman (2:11:29.500)

and it becomes just easy automatic.

Tim Urban (2:11:31.380)

It becomes I do it because that's what I do.

Lex Fridman (2:11:33.280)

But I think that if you don't have a lot of shame

Tim Urban (2:11:35.100)

necessarily, the pain of doing those things

Lex Fridman (2:11:38.020)

is worse in the immediate moment than not doing it.

Lex Fridman (2:11:42.260)

But I think that there's this feeling

Lex Fridman (2:11:44.100)

that you capture with your body language

Lex Fridman (2:11:46.280)

and so on, like I don't want to do another set.

Lex Fridman (2:11:50.100)

That feeling, the people I've seen that are good

Tim Urban (2:11:53.540)

at not procrastinating are the ones

Lex Fridman (2:11:55.460)

that have trained themselves to like the moment

Tim Urban (2:11:58.580)

they would be having that feeling.

Lex Fridman (2:12:00.020)

They just, it's like Zen, like Sam Harris style Zen.

Tim Urban (2:12:03.800)

You don't experience that feeling.

Lex Fridman (2:12:05.580)

You just march forward.

Tim Urban (2:12:06.940)

Like I talked to Elon about this a lot actually offline.

Lex Fridman (2:12:09.820)

It's like, he doesn't have this.

Tim Urban (2:12:11.700)

No, clearly not.

Lex Fridman (2:12:12.900)

It's the way I think, at least he talks about it

Lex Fridman (2:12:16.060)

and the way I think about it is it's like

Lex Fridman (2:12:18.060)

you just pretend you're like a machine running an algorithm.

Tim Urban (2:12:21.620)

Like you know this, you should be doing this.

Lex Fridman (2:12:24.580)

Not because somebody told you so on.

Tim Urban (2:12:26.100)

This is probably the thing you want to do.

Lex Fridman (2:12:28.520)

Like look at the big picture of your life

Lex Fridman (2:12:30.420)

and just run the algorithm.

Lex Fridman (2:12:31.580)

Like ignore your feelings, just run as if.

Lex Fridman (2:12:33.540)

But it's framing, frame it differently.

Lex Fridman (2:12:35.260)

Yeah.

Tim Urban (2:12:36.100)

You know, yeah, you can frame it as like,

Lex Fridman (2:12:38.020)

it can feel like homework or it can feel like

Tim Urban (2:12:40.800)

you're like, you're living your best life

Lex Fridman (2:12:42.420)

or something when you're doing your work.

Tim Urban (2:12:43.940)

Yeah, and maybe reframe it.

Lex Fridman (2:12:46.380)

But I think ultimately is whatever reframing

Tim Urban (2:12:48.580)

you need to do, you just need to do it for a few weeks.

Lex Fridman (2:12:52.340)

And that's how the habit is formed and you stick with it.

Tim Urban (2:12:56.980)

Like I'm now on a kick where I exercise every day.

Lex Fridman (2:13:04.140)

It doesn't matter what that exercise is.

Tim Urban (2:13:06.180)

It's not serious.

Lex Fridman (2:13:07.420)

It could be 200 pushups, but it's the thing that like

Tim Urban (2:13:11.060)

I make sure I exercise every day

Lex Fridman (2:13:12.380)

and it's become way, way easier because of the habit.

Lex Fridman (2:13:15.540)

And I just, and I don't like, at least with exercise

Lex Fridman (2:13:19.660)

because it's easier to replicate that feeling.

Tim Urban (2:13:22.140)

I don't allow myself to go like,

Lex Fridman (2:13:24.420)

I don't feel like doing this.

Tim Urban (2:13:25.340)

Right.

Lex Fridman (2:13:26.180)

Well, I think about that, even just like little things,

Tim Urban (2:13:27.460)

like I brush my teeth before I go to bed

Lex Fridman (2:13:29.260)

and it's just a habit.

Tim Urban (2:13:30.260)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (2:13:31.100)

And it is effort.

Tim Urban (2:13:31.940)

Like if it were something else, I would be like,

Lex Fridman (2:13:34.340)

oh, I'm gonna go to the bathroom and go do that.

Lex Fridman (2:13:35.860)

And I just want to like, I'm just gonna lie down right now.

Lex Fridman (2:13:37.660)

But it doesn't even cross my mind.

Tim Urban (2:13:38.860)

It's just like that I just robotically go and do it.

Lex Fridman (2:13:41.380)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (2:13:42.220)

And it almost has become like a nice routine.

Lex Fridman (2:13:43.640)

It's like, oh, this part of the night, you know,

Tim Urban (2:13:44.940)

it's like a morning routine for me stuff is like,

Lex Fridman (2:13:47.500)

you know, that stuff is kind of just like automated.

Tim Urban (2:13:50.060)

Yeah, it's funny because you don't like go,

Lex Fridman (2:13:52.700)

like I don't think I've skipped many days.

Tim Urban (2:13:54.460)

I don't think I skipped any days brushing my teeth.

Lex Fridman (2:13:56.540)

Right.

Tim Urban (2:13:57.380)

Like unless I didn't have a toothbrush,

Lex Fridman (2:13:59.080)

like I was in the woods or something.

Lex Fridman (2:14:00.620)

And what is that?

Lex Fridman (2:14:01.440)

Because it's annoying.

Tim Urban (2:14:02.280)

Well, so to me, there is,

Lex Fridman (2:14:04.420)

so the character that makes me procrastinate

Tim Urban (2:14:06.100)

is the instant gratification monkey.

Lex Fridman (2:14:08.140)

That's what I've labeled him, right?

Lex Fridman (2:14:09.540)

And there's the rational decision maker

Lex Fridman (2:14:11.260)

and the instant gratification monkey

Lex Fridman (2:14:12.420)

and these battle with each other.

Lex Fridman (2:14:14.160)

But for procrastinator, the monkey wins.

Tim Urban (2:14:18.060)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (2:14:18.900)

I don't think the monkey is, you know,

Tim Urban (2:14:20.780)

you read about this kind of stuff.

Lex Fridman (2:14:21.820)

I think that this kind of more primitive brain

Tim Urban (2:14:25.900)

is always winning.

Lex Fridman (2:14:26.820)

And in the non procrastinators,

Tim Urban (2:14:28.180)

that primitive brain is on board for some reason

Lex Fridman (2:14:31.780)

and isn't resisting.

Tim Urban (2:14:32.660)

So, but when I think about brushing my teeth,

Lex Fridman (2:14:35.080)

it's like the monkey doesn't even think

Tim Urban (2:14:36.700)

there's an option to not do it.

Lex Fridman (2:14:38.520)

So it doesn't even like get, there's no hope.

Tim Urban (2:14:40.380)

Monkey has no hope there.

Lex Fridman (2:14:41.820)

So it doesn't even like get involved.

Lex Fridman (2:14:43.140)

And it's just like, yeah, you know, we have to,

Lex Fridman (2:14:44.340)

just like kind of like robotically, just like, you know,

Tim Urban (2:14:46.820)

it was kind of like Stockholm syndrome,

Lex Fridman (2:14:48.060)

just like, oh no, no, I have to do this.

Tim Urban (2:14:50.460)

It doesn't even like wake up.

Lex Fridman (2:14:51.820)

It's like, yeah, we're doing this now.

Tim Urban (2:14:53.220)

For other things, the monkey's like, ooh, no, no, no.

Lex Fridman (2:14:54.940)

Most days I can win this one.

Lex Fridman (2:14:56.820)

And so the monkey puts up that like fierce resistance

Lex Fridman (2:15:01.820)

and it's like, it's a lot of it's like

Tim Urban (2:15:03.860)

the initial transition.

Lex Fridman (2:15:05.660)

So I think of it as like jumping in a cold pool

Tim Urban (2:15:09.060)

where it's like, I will spend the whole day

Lex Fridman (2:15:12.580)

pacing around the side of the pool in my bathing suit,

Tim Urban (2:15:15.100)

just being like, I don't want to have that one second

Lex Fridman (2:15:17.580)

when you first jump in and it sucks.

Lex Fridman (2:15:18.780)

And then once you're, once I'm in,

Lex Fridman (2:15:20.860)

once I jump in, I'm usually, you know,

Tim Urban (2:15:21.860)

once I start writing, I'm suddenly I'm like,

Lex Fridman (2:15:23.540)

oh, this isn't so bad.

Tim Urban (2:15:24.640)

Okay, I'm kind of into it.

Lex Fridman (2:15:25.480)

And then I, then sometimes you can't tear me away.

Tim Urban (2:15:27.020)

You know, then I suddenly I'm like, I get into a flow.

Lex Fridman (2:15:29.340)

So it's like, once I get into cold water, I don't mind it,

Lex Fridman (2:15:31.380)

but I will spend hours standing around the side of the pool.

Lex Fridman (2:15:34.900)

And by the way, I do this in a more literal sense.

Tim Urban (2:15:36.820)

When I go to the gym with a trainer in 45 minutes,

Lex Fridman (2:15:40.440)

I do a full full ass workout.

Lex Fridman (2:15:41.960)

And it's not because I'm having a good time,

Lex Fridman (2:15:44.820)

but it's because it's that,

Lex Fridman (2:15:47.420)

oh, okay, I have to go to class feeling, right?

Lex Fridman (2:15:49.080)

But when I go to the gym alone,

Tim Urban (2:15:50.540)

I will literally do a set and then dick around my phone

Lex Fridman (2:15:55.460)

for 10 minutes before the next set.

Lex Fridman (2:15:57.380)

And I'll spend an over an hour there and do way less.

Lex Fridman (2:15:59.660)

So it is the transition.

Tim Urban (2:16:01.940)

Once I'm actually doing the set,

Lex Fridman (2:16:03.140)

I'm never like, I don't want to stop in the middle.

Tim Urban (2:16:04.460)

Now it's just like, I'm going to do this.

Lex Fridman (2:16:05.560)

And I felt happy, I just did it.

Lex Fridman (2:16:07.020)

So it's something,

Lex Fridman (2:16:07.860)

there's something about transitions that is very,

Tim Urban (2:16:09.580)

that's why procrastinators are late a lot of places.

Lex Fridman (2:16:12.980)

It's, I will procrastinate getting ready

Tim Urban (2:16:14.940)

to go to the airport,

Lex Fridman (2:16:16.900)

even though I know I should leave at three,

Lex Fridman (2:16:18.240)

so I can not be stressed.

Lex Fridman (2:16:19.220)

I'll leave at 3.36 and I'll be super stressed.

Tim Urban (2:16:22.420)

Once I'm on the way to the airport,

Lex Fridman (2:16:24.700)

immediately I'm like, why didn't I do this earlier?

Tim Urban (2:16:26.340)

Now I'm back on my phone doing what I was doing.

Lex Fridman (2:16:28.660)

I just had to get in the damn car or whatever.

Lex Fridman (2:16:31.280)

So yeah, there's some very, very odd irrational.

Lex Fridman (2:16:36.560)

Yeah, like I was waiting for you to come

Lex Fridman (2:16:38.640)

and you said that you're running a few minutes late.

Lex Fridman (2:16:40.500)

And I was like, I was like, I'll go get you a coffee

Tim Urban (2:16:45.620)

because I can't possibly be the one who's early.

Lex Fridman (2:16:49.100)

I can't, I don't understand.

Tim Urban (2:16:50.460)

I'm always late to stuff.

Lex Fridman (2:16:51.820)

And I know it's disrespectful

Tim Urban (2:16:54.060)

in the eyes of a lot of people.

Lex Fridman (2:16:55.340)

I can't help, you know what I'm doing ahead of it?

Tim Urban (2:16:58.200)

It's not like I don't care about the people.

Lex Fridman (2:17:00.180)

I'm often like, you know, for like this conversation,

Tim Urban (2:17:03.060)

I'd be preparing more.

Lex Fridman (2:17:05.620)

It's like, I obviously care about the person,

Lex Fridman (2:17:08.220)

but for some.

Lex Fridman (2:17:09.060)

Yeah, it's misinterpreted as like,

Tim Urban (2:17:10.500)

there are some people that like show up late

Lex Fridman (2:17:13.060)

because they kind of like that quality in themselves.

Lex Fridman (2:17:15.880)

That's a dick, right?

Lex Fridman (2:17:16.720)

There's a lot of those people,

Lex Fridman (2:17:17.680)

but more often it's someone who shows up frazzled

Lex Fridman (2:17:20.340)

and they feel awful and they're furious at themselves.

Tim Urban (2:17:22.780)

They're so regretful.

Lex Fridman (2:17:23.620)

Exactly.

Tim Urban (2:17:24.440)

I mean, that's me.

Lex Fridman (2:17:25.280)

And I mean, all you have to do is look at those people alone

Lex Fridman (2:17:27.800)

running through the airport, right?

Lex Fridman (2:17:29.820)

They're not being disrespectful to anyone there.

Tim Urban (2:17:31.180)

They just inflicted this on themselves.

Lex Fridman (2:17:33.100)

Like.

Tim Urban (2:17:33.940)

This is hilarious.

Lex Fridman (2:17:34.760)

Yeah.

Tim Urban (2:17:35.600)

You tweeted a quote by James Baldwin saying, quote,

Lex Fridman (2:17:38.660)

I imagine one of the reasons people cling to their hates

Lex Fridman (2:17:41.600)

so stubbornly is because they sense once hate is gone,

Lex Fridman (2:17:47.340)

they will be forced to deal with the pain.

Lex Fridman (2:17:51.040)

What has been a painful but formative experience

Lex Fridman (2:17:53.820)

in your life?

Tim Urban (2:17:55.300)

Or what's the flavor, the shape of your pain

Lex Fridman (2:17:58.040)

that fuels you?

Tim Urban (2:17:59.000)

I mean, honestly, the first thing that jumped to mind

Lex Fridman (2:18:02.660)

is my own like battles against myself to get my work done

Tim Urban (2:18:06.260)

because it affects everything.

Lex Fridman (2:18:07.660)

When I, I just took five years in this book

Lex Fridman (2:18:09.700)

and granted it's a beast.

Lex Fridman (2:18:11.220)

Like I probably would have taken two or three years,

Lex Fridman (2:18:13.380)

but it didn't need to take five.

Lex Fridman (2:18:14.480)

And that was a lot of, not just, you know,

Tim Urban (2:18:16.620)

not just that I'm not working,

Lex Fridman (2:18:17.860)

it's that I'm over researching.

Tim Urban (2:18:19.880)

I'm making it, I'm adding in things I shouldn't

Lex Fridman (2:18:22.380)

because I'm perfectionist, you know,

Tim Urban (2:18:23.820)

being a perfectionist about like, oh, well I learned that.

Lex Fridman (2:18:25.660)

Now I want to get it in there.

Tim Urban (2:18:26.820)

I know I'm going to end up cutting it later.

Lex Fridman (2:18:28.020)

Just, you know, or I over outline, you know,

Tim Urban (2:18:30.940)

something until, you know, trying to get it perfect

Lex Fridman (2:18:32.660)

when I know that's not possible.

Lex Fridman (2:18:33.940)

So making a lot of immature kind of,

Lex Fridman (2:18:36.660)

like, I'm not actually that much of a writing amateur.

Tim Urban (2:18:38.780)

I've written, including my old blog,

Lex Fridman (2:18:40.660)

I've been a writer for 15 years.

Tim Urban (2:18:42.260)

I know what I'm doing.

Lex Fridman (2:18:43.260)

I could advise other writers really well.

Lex Fridman (2:18:45.900)

And yet I do a bunch of amateur things

Lex Fridman (2:18:47.900)

that I know while I'm doing them is an,

Tim Urban (2:18:50.260)

I know I'm being an amateur.

Lex Fridman (2:18:51.220)

So that A, it hurts the actual product.

Tim Urban (2:18:55.580)

It makes, you know, B, it's waste your precious time.

Lex Fridman (2:18:59.340)

C, when you're mad at yourself,

Tim Urban (2:19:01.780)

when you're in a negative, you know,

Lex Fridman (2:19:04.780)

self defeating spiral, it almost inevitably will,

Tim Urban (2:19:08.140)

you'll be less good to others.

Lex Fridman (2:19:09.980)

Like, you know, I'll just, just, I used to, you know,

Tim Urban (2:19:12.260)

early on in my now marriage,

Lex Fridman (2:19:15.620)

one of the things we always used to do

Tim Urban (2:19:17.220)

is I used to plan mystery dates.

Lex Fridman (2:19:18.980)

You know, New York city, great, great place for this.

Tim Urban (2:19:20.820)

I'd find some weird little adventure for us.

Lex Fridman (2:19:22.980)

You know, it could be anything.

Lex Fridman (2:19:24.700)

And I wouldn't tell her what it was.

Lex Fridman (2:19:25.700)

I said, I reserving you for Thursday night,

Lex Fridman (2:19:27.500)

you know, at seven, okay?

Lex Fridman (2:19:29.060)

And it was such a fun part of our relationship.

Tim Urban (2:19:31.420)

Started writing this book and got into a really bad,

Lex Fridman (2:19:33.860)

you know, personal space where I was like, in my head,

Tim Urban (2:19:36.380)

I was like, I can't do anything until this is done.

Lex Fridman (2:19:38.220)

You know, like, no.

Lex Fridman (2:19:39.100)

And I just stopped like ever valuing,

Lex Fridman (2:19:41.620)

like, like joy of any kind.

Tim Urban (2:19:44.220)

Like I was like, no, any, no, that's when I'm done.

Lex Fridman (2:19:47.140)

And that's a trap or very quickly, you know,

Tim Urban (2:19:49.900)

cause I always think, you know,

Lex Fridman (2:19:50.740)

I think it's going to be a six months away,

Lex Fridman (2:19:51.940)

but actually five years later, I'm like, wow,

Lex Fridman (2:19:53.780)

I really wasn't living fully.

Lex Fridman (2:19:55.780)

And for five years is not, we don't live very long.

Lex Fridman (2:19:58.260)

Like talking about your prime decades,

Tim Urban (2:19:59.820)

like that's like a sixth of my prime years.

Lex Fridman (2:20:01.780)

Like, wow, like that's a huge loss.

Lex Fridman (2:20:04.860)

So to me, that was excruciating.

Lex Fridman (2:20:06.260)

And, you know, and it was a bad pattern,

Tim Urban (2:20:10.020)

a very unproductive, unhelpful pattern for me,

Lex Fridman (2:20:12.980)

which is I'd wake up in the morning in this great mood,

Tim Urban (2:20:15.540)

great mood every morning, wake up thrilled to be awake.

Lex Fridman (2:20:18.100)

I have the whole day ahead of me.

Tim Urban (2:20:19.380)

I'm going to get so much work done today.

Lex Fridman (2:20:21.180)

And, but you know, first I'm going to do all these other

Tim Urban (2:20:23.580)

things and it's all going to be great.

Lex Fridman (2:20:24.620)

And then I ended up kind of failing for the day

Tim Urban (2:20:27.860)

with those goals, sometimes miserably,

Lex Fridman (2:20:30.260)

sometimes only partially.

Lex Fridman (2:20:31.900)

And then I get in bed probably a couple hours later

Lex Fridman (2:20:35.300)

than I want to.

Lex Fridman (2:20:36.140)

And that's when all of the real reality hits me.

Lex Fridman (2:20:39.020)

Suddenly so much regret, so much anxiety,

Tim Urban (2:20:42.020)

furious at myself, wishing I could take a time machine back

Lex Fridman (2:20:44.700)

three months, six months a year,

Tim Urban (2:20:46.700)

or just even to the beginning of that day.

Lex Fridman (2:20:48.980)

And just tossing and turning now.

Tim Urban (2:20:51.900)

I mean, this is a very bad place.

Lex Fridman (2:20:53.140)

This is what I said, suffering,

Tim Urban (2:20:54.260)

procrastinators suffer in a very serious way.

Lex Fridman (2:20:56.740)

So look, I, you know,

Tim Urban (2:20:58.300)

I know this probably sounds like a lot of like first world

Lex Fridman (2:21:01.260)

problems and it is, but it's real suffering as well.

Tim Urban (2:21:03.540)

Like it's, so to me, it's like,

Lex Fridman (2:21:06.900)

it's painful because you're not being,

Tim Urban (2:21:11.500)

you're not being as good a friend or a spouse or whatever,

Lex Fridman (2:21:13.740)

as you could be.

Tim Urban (2:21:14.580)

You're also not treating yourself very well.

Lex Fridman (2:21:16.060)

You're usually not being very healthy in these moments.

Tim Urban (2:21:17.900)

You know, you're often, and you're not being,

Lex Fridman (2:21:20.300)

I'm not being good to my readers.

Lex Fridman (2:21:21.420)

So it's just a lot of this.

Lex Fridman (2:21:22.940)

And it's like, it feels like it's one small tweak away.

Tim Urban (2:21:27.260)

Sometimes it's like, that's what I said.

Lex Fridman (2:21:28.580)

It's like, you just suddenly are just doing that nine to 12

Lex Fridman (2:21:31.180)

and you get in that habit.

Lex Fridman (2:21:32.260)

Everything else falls into place.

Tim Urban (2:21:33.660)

All of this reverses.

Lex Fridman (2:21:35.380)

So I feel hopeful, but it's like, it is a,

Tim Urban (2:21:39.020)

I have not figured, I haven't fixed the boat yet.

Lex Fridman (2:21:41.180)

I have some good duct tape though.

Lex Fridman (2:21:43.380)

And you also don't want to romanticize it

Lex Fridman (2:21:45.420)

because it is true that some of the greats in history,

Tim Urban (2:21:48.420)

especially writers suffer from all the same stuff.

Lex Fridman (2:21:51.220)

Like they weren't quite able.

Tim Urban (2:21:52.780)

I mean, you might only write for two or three hours a day,

Lex Fridman (2:21:56.620)

but the rest of the day is often spent kind of tortured.

Tim Urban (2:22:00.620)

Well, right.

Lex Fridman (2:22:01.460)

This is the irrational thing is if I,

Lex Fridman (2:22:03.500)

and this goes for a lot of people's jobs,

Lex Fridman (2:22:05.060)

people especially who work for themselves,

Tim Urban (2:22:07.180)

you'd be shocked how much you could wake up at nine

Lex Fridman (2:22:10.220)

or eight or seven or whatever.

Tim Urban (2:22:11.980)

Get to work and stop at one,

Lex Fridman (2:22:13.340)

but you're really focused in those hours.

Tim Urban (2:22:15.420)

One or two and do 25 really focused hours of stuff,

Lex Fridman (2:22:20.060)

product stuff a week, and then there's 112 waking hours

Lex Fridman (2:22:23.420)

in the week, right?

Lex Fridman (2:22:24.260)

So we're talking about 80 something hours of free time.

Tim Urban (2:22:27.180)

You can live, you know, if you're just really focused

Lex Fridman (2:22:29.500)

in your, you know, yin and yang of your time,

Lex Fridman (2:22:31.380)

and that's what, that's my goal is black and white time.

Lex Fridman (2:22:34.100)

I really focused time and then totally like

Tim Urban (2:22:37.260)

clean conscience free time.

Lex Fridman (2:22:39.420)

Right now I have neither, it's a lot of gray.

Tim Urban (2:22:40.740)

It's a lot of, I should be working, but I'm not.

Lex Fridman (2:22:42.380)

Oh, I'm wasting this time.

Tim Urban (2:22:43.660)

This is bad.

Lex Fridman (2:22:44.500)

And that's just as massive.

Lex Fridman (2:22:45.580)

So if you can just get really good at the black

Lex Fridman (2:22:49.060)

and the white, so you just wake up

Lex Fridman (2:22:50.340)

and it's just like full work.

Lex Fridman (2:22:51.580)

And then I think a lot of people could have

Tim Urban (2:22:53.420)

like all this free time,

Lex Fridman (2:22:54.260)

but instead I'll do those same three hours.

Tim Urban (2:22:55.860)

It's like you said, I'll do them really late at night

Lex Fridman (2:22:57.660)

or whatever after having tortured myself the whole day

Lex Fridman (2:23:00.100)

and not had any fun.

Lex Fridman (2:23:01.020)

It's not like I'm having fun.

Tim Urban (2:23:03.100)

I call it the dark playground, by the way,

Lex Fridman (2:23:04.580)

which is where you are when you know you should be working,

Lex Fridman (2:23:06.820)

but you're doing something else.

Lex Fridman (2:23:08.660)

You're doing something fun on paper,

Lex Fridman (2:23:10.740)

but it's never, it feels awful.

Lex Fridman (2:23:12.700)

And so, yeah, I spend a lot of time in the dark.

Lex Fridman (2:23:14.580)

And you know you shouldn't be doing it

Lex Fridman (2:23:16.020)

and you still do it and yeah.

Tim Urban (2:23:18.060)

It's not clean conscience fun.

Lex Fridman (2:23:19.380)

It's bad, it's toxic.

Lex Fridman (2:23:21.300)

And I think that it's, there's something about,

Lex Fridman (2:23:23.740)

you know, you're draining yourself all the time.

Lex Fridman (2:23:25.380)

And if you just did your focused hours

Lex Fridman (2:23:26.780)

and then if you actually have good, clean fun,

Tim Urban (2:23:28.740)

fun can be anything.

Lex Fridman (2:23:29.580)

Reading a book can be hanging out with someone

Tim Urban (2:23:31.420)

who can be really fun.

Lex Fridman (2:23:32.260)

You can go and do something cool in the city.

Tim Urban (2:23:33.860)

You know, that is critical.

Lex Fridman (2:23:37.020)

You're recharging some part of your psyche there.

Lex Fridman (2:23:39.020)

And I think it makes it easier

Lex Fridman (2:23:39.940)

to actually work the next day.

Lex Fridman (2:23:40.940)

And I say this from the experiences

Lex Fridman (2:23:42.460)

when I have had good stretches.

Lex Fridman (2:23:44.260)

It's like, you know what it is?

Lex Fridman (2:23:46.660)

It's like, you feel like you're fist pounding.

Tim Urban (2:23:48.380)

One part of your brain is fist pounding the other part.

Lex Fridman (2:23:50.340)

Like, you're like, we got this.

Tim Urban (2:23:52.540)

Like, we treat ourselves well.

Lex Fridman (2:23:54.820)

Like, this is how you internally feel.

Tim Urban (2:23:56.060)

Like, I treat myself.

Lex Fridman (2:23:56.980)

And it's like, yeah, no, it's work time.

Lex Fridman (2:23:58.380)

And then later you're like, now it's play time.

Lex Fridman (2:23:59.820)

And it's like, okay, back to work.

Lex Fridman (2:24:00.980)

And you're in this very healthy,

Lex Fridman (2:24:02.180)

like parent child relationship in your head

Tim Urban (2:24:04.100)

versus like this constant conflict.

Lex Fridman (2:24:06.940)

And like the kid doesn't respect the parent

Lex Fridman (2:24:08.660)

and the parent hates the kid.

Lex Fridman (2:24:09.500)

And like, yeah.

Lex Fridman (2:24:10.980)

And you're right.

Lex Fridman (2:24:11.820)

It always feels like it's like one fix away.

Lex Fridman (2:24:14.540)

So that there's hope.

Lex Fridman (2:24:15.860)

I mean, I guess, I mean,

Lex Fridman (2:24:18.580)

so much of what you said just rings so true.

Lex Fridman (2:24:21.660)

I guess I have the same kind of hope.

Lex Fridman (2:24:24.180)

But you know, this podcast is very regular.

Lex Fridman (2:24:27.660)

I mean, I'm impressed.

Tim Urban (2:24:29.060)

Like, and I think partially what,

Lex Fridman (2:24:32.420)

there is a bit of a duct tape solution here,

Tim Urban (2:24:34.340)

which is you just, the,

Lex Fridman (2:24:36.380)

cause it's always easy to schedule stuff

Lex Fridman (2:24:37.700)

for the future for myself, right?

Lex Fridman (2:24:39.060)

Because that's future Tim

Lex Fridman (2:24:40.020)

and future Tim is not my problem.

Lex Fridman (2:24:42.460)

So I'll schedule all kinds of shit for future Tim.

Lex Fridman (2:24:44.740)

And I will then not do it.

Lex Fridman (2:24:48.300)

But in this case,

Tim Urban (2:24:49.220)

you can schedule podcasts and you have to show up.

Lex Fridman (2:24:52.940)

Yeah, you have to show up.

Tim Urban (2:24:53.780)

Right, it seems like a good medium for procrastinating.

Lex Fridman (2:24:55.740)

This is not my, this is what I do for fun.

Tim Urban (2:24:57.940)

I know, but at least this is the kind of thing,

Lex Fridman (2:25:00.460)

especially if it's not your main thing.

Tim Urban (2:25:02.500)

Especially if it's not your main thing,

Lex Fridman (2:25:03.460)

it's the kind of thing that you would dream of doing

Lex Fridman (2:25:05.020)

and want to do and never do.

Lex Fridman (2:25:06.380)

And I feel like your regular production here

Tim Urban (2:25:10.020)

is a sign that something is working,

Lex Fridman (2:25:12.140)

at least in this regard.

Tim Urban (2:25:13.300)

Yeah, in this regard.

Lex Fridman (2:25:14.140)

I'm just, I'm sure you have this same kind of thing

Tim Urban (2:25:16.380)

with the podcast.

Lex Fridman (2:25:17.220)

In fact, because you're going to be doing the podcast,

Tim Urban (2:25:18.980)

as possible, the podcast becomes what the podcast is for me.

Lex Fridman (2:25:22.660)

This is you procrastinating.

Tim Urban (2:25:24.380)

If you think about being 80

Lex Fridman (2:25:25.660)

and if you can get into that person's head

Lex Fridman (2:25:27.380)

and look back and be like, and just deep regret,

Lex Fridman (2:25:29.700)

you just, you know, yearning,

Tim Urban (2:25:31.460)

you could do anything to just go back

Lex Fridman (2:25:33.220)

and have done this differently.

Tim Urban (2:25:34.660)

That is desperation.

Lex Fridman (2:25:36.060)

It's just, you don't feel it yet.

Tim Urban (2:25:37.100)

It's not in you yet.

Lex Fridman (2:25:38.700)

The other thing you could do is if you have a partner,

Tim Urban (2:25:40.260)

if you want to partner with someone,

Lex Fridman (2:25:41.300)

now you could say, we meet.

Tim Urban (2:25:43.380)

These 15 hours every week.

Lex Fridman (2:25:44.980)

And that point you're going to get it done.

Lex Fridman (2:25:46.380)

So working with someone can help.

Lex Fridman (2:25:48.900)

Yeah, that's why they say like a co founder

Tim Urban (2:25:51.220)

is really powerful for many reasons,

Lex Fridman (2:25:52.740)

but that's kind of one of them.

Tim Urban (2:25:54.500)

Because to actually, for the startup case,

Lex Fridman (2:25:57.900)

you, unlike writing perhaps,

Tim Urban (2:26:00.860)

it's really like a hundred hour plus thing.

Lex Fridman (2:26:03.180)

Like once you really launch, you go all in.

Tim Urban (2:26:06.980)

Like everything else just disappears.

Lex Fridman (2:26:09.340)

Like you can't even have a hope of a balanced life

Tim Urban (2:26:11.820)

for a little bit.

Lex Fridman (2:26:12.660)

So, and there co founder really helps.

Tim Urban (2:26:15.340)

That's the idea.

Lex Fridman (2:26:18.300)

When you, you're one of the most interesting people

Tim Urban (2:26:20.900)

on the internet.

Lex Fridman (2:26:21.820)

So as a writer, you look out into the future.

Lex Fridman (2:26:27.540)

Do you dream about certain things you want to still create?

Lex Fridman (2:26:30.460)

Is there projects that you want to write?

Lex Fridman (2:26:34.140)

Is there movies you want to write or direct or?

Lex Fridman (2:26:37.420)

Endless.

Lex Fridman (2:26:38.660)

So it's just endless sea of ideas.

Lex Fridman (2:26:40.980)

No, there's specific list of things that really excite me,

Lex Fridman (2:26:44.140)

but it's a big list that I know

Lex Fridman (2:26:46.220)

I'll never get through them all.

Lex Fridman (2:26:47.340)

And that's part of why the last five years really like,

Lex Fridman (2:26:51.580)

when I feel like I'm not moving as quickly as I could,

Tim Urban (2:26:54.340)

it bothers me because I have so much genuine excitement

Lex Fridman (2:26:57.180)

to try so many different things.

Lex Fridman (2:26:58.380)

And I get so much joy from finishing things.

Lex Fridman (2:27:00.180)

I don't like doing things, but a lot of writers are like that.

Tim Urban (2:27:03.580)

Publishing something is hugely joyful

Lex Fridman (2:27:06.580)

and makes it all worth it.

Tim Urban (2:27:08.140)

Or just finishing something you're proud of,

Lex Fridman (2:27:09.980)

putting it out there and have people appreciate it.

Lex Fridman (2:27:11.500)

It's like the best thing in the world, right?

Lex Fridman (2:27:13.700)

Every kid makes some little bargain with themselves,

Tim Urban (2:27:15.740)

has a little, a dream or something.

Lex Fridman (2:27:19.060)

And I feel like when I do something that I make something

Tim Urban (2:27:22.940)

in this, for me, it's been mostly writing

Lex Fridman (2:27:25.740)

and I feel proud of it and I put it out there.

Tim Urban (2:27:27.660)

I feel like I like, again,

Lex Fridman (2:27:29.140)

I'm like fist pounding my seven year old self.

Tim Urban (2:27:30.940)

Like there's a little, like I owe it to myself

Lex Fridman (2:27:34.700)

to do certain things.

Lex Fridman (2:27:35.540)

And I just did one of the things I owe.

Lex Fridman (2:27:36.860)

I just paid off some debt to myself.

Tim Urban (2:27:38.060)

I owed it and I paid it and it feels great.

Lex Fridman (2:27:40.260)

It feels like very like you just feel very,

Tim Urban (2:27:42.700)

a lot of inner peace when you do it.

Lex Fridman (2:27:43.900)

So the more things I can do,

Lex Fridman (2:27:46.140)

and I just have fun doing it, right?

Lex Fridman (2:27:47.460)

And so I just, for me that includes a lot more writing.

Tim Urban (2:27:50.860)

I just, short blog posts, I write very long blog posts,

Lex Fridman (2:27:54.460)

but basically short writing

Tim Urban (2:27:55.620)

in the form of long blog posts is a great,

Lex Fridman (2:27:57.940)

I love that medium.

Tim Urban (2:27:59.060)

I wanna do a lot more of that.

Lex Fridman (2:28:00.860)

Books yet to be seen, I'm gonna do this

Lex Fridman (2:28:02.620)

and I'm gonna have another book I'm gonna do right after.

Lex Fridman (2:28:04.100)

And we'll see if I like those two.

Lex Fridman (2:28:05.340)

And if I do, I'll do more, otherwise I won't.

Lex Fridman (2:28:07.620)

But I also wanna try other mediums.

Tim Urban (2:28:08.780)

I wanna make more videos.

Lex Fridman (2:28:10.860)

I want to, I did a little travel series once.

Tim Urban (2:28:14.540)

I love doing that.

Lex Fridman (2:28:15.380)

I wanna do more of that.

Tim Urban (2:28:16.780)

Almost like a vlog.

Lex Fridman (2:28:18.500)

No, it was, I let readers in a survey

Tim Urban (2:28:22.260)

pick five countries they wanted me to go to.

Lex Fridman (2:28:24.820)

That's awesome.

Lex Fridman (2:28:25.660)

And they picked, they sent me to weird places.

Lex Fridman (2:28:27.940)

They sent me, I went to Siberia, I went to Japan.

Tim Urban (2:28:32.460)

I went from there to, this is all in a row,

Lex Fridman (2:28:34.740)

into Nigeria, from there to Iraq.

Lex Fridman (2:28:37.380)

And from there to Greenland.

Lex Fridman (2:28:39.140)

And then I went back to New York,

Tim Urban (2:28:41.020)

like two weeks in each place.

Lex Fridman (2:28:43.620)

And I got to, each one I got to have some weird experiences.

Tim Urban (2:28:46.860)

I tried to like really dig in

Lex Fridman (2:28:48.420)

and have like some interesting experiences.

Lex Fridman (2:28:51.460)

And then I wrote about it.

Lex Fridman (2:28:52.540)

And I taught readers a little bit

Tim Urban (2:28:53.900)

about the history of these places.

Lex Fridman (2:28:55.020)

And it was just, I love doing that.

Tim Urban (2:28:56.340)

I love, so, and I'm like, oh man,

Lex Fridman (2:28:58.940)

like I haven't done one of those in so long.

Lex Fridman (2:29:01.820)

And then I have a big like desire to do fictional stuff.

Lex Fridman (2:29:05.820)

Like I want to write a sci fi at some point.

Lex Fridman (2:29:07.740)

And I would love to write a musical.

Lex Fridman (2:29:09.740)

That's actually what I was doing before Wait But Why.

Tim Urban (2:29:11.780)

I was with a partner, Ryan Langer.

Lex Fridman (2:29:14.420)

We were halfway through a musical

Lex Fridman (2:29:15.860)

and he got tied up with his other musical

Lex Fridman (2:29:19.860)

and Wait But Why started taking off.

Lex Fridman (2:29:21.420)

And we just haven't gotten back to it.

Lex Fridman (2:29:22.740)

But it's such a fun medium.

Lex Fridman (2:29:24.260)

So it's such a silly medium, but it's so fun.

Lex Fridman (2:29:26.540)

So you think about all of these mediums

Tim Urban (2:29:28.460)

on which you can be creative and create something

Lex Fridman (2:29:30.700)

and you like the variety of it.

Tim Urban (2:29:32.620)

Yeah, it's just that if there's a chance on a new medium,

Lex Fridman (2:29:37.180)

I could do something good.

Tim Urban (2:29:38.820)

I want to do it.

Lex Fridman (2:29:39.660)

I want to try it.

Tim Urban (2:29:40.500)

It sounds like so gratifying and so fun.

Lex Fridman (2:29:42.900)

I think it's fun to just watch you actually sample these.

Lex Fridman (2:29:45.540)

So I can't wait for your podcast.

Lex Fridman (2:29:47.740)

I'll be listening to all of them.

Tim Urban (2:29:49.460)

I mean, that's a cool medium to see like where it goes.

Lex Fridman (2:29:52.220)

The cool thing about podcasting and making videos,

Tim Urban (2:29:54.340)

especially with a super creative mind like yours,

Lex Fridman (2:29:56.860)

you don't really know what you're going to make of it

Tim Urban (2:29:59.640)

until you try it.

Lex Fridman (2:30:01.180)

Yeah, podcasts I'm really excited about,

Lex Fridman (2:30:03.020)

but I'm like, I like going on other people's podcasts.

Lex Fridman (2:30:06.540)

And I never try to have my own.

Lex Fridman (2:30:08.180)

So with every medium,

Lex Fridman (2:30:10.000)

there's the challenges of how the sausage is made.

Lex Fridman (2:30:13.180)

So like the challenges of action.

Lex Fridman (2:30:15.380)

Yeah, but it's also, I like to like,

Tim Urban (2:30:16.700)

I'll go on like, as you know, long ass monologues

Lex Fridman (2:30:19.380)

and you can't do that.

Tim Urban (2:30:20.540)

If you're the interviewer,

Lex Fridman (2:30:21.720)

like you're not supposed to do that as much.

Lex Fridman (2:30:23.420)

So I have to like rein it in and that might be hard,

Lex Fridman (2:30:27.700)

but we'll see.

Tim Urban (2:30:28.540)

You could also do solo type stuff.

Lex Fridman (2:30:29.500)

Yeah, maybe I'll do a little of each.

Lex Fridman (2:30:31.180)

You know what's funny?

Lex Fridman (2:30:32.020)

I mean, some of my favorite is more like solo,

Lex Fridman (2:30:34.140)

but there's like a sidekick.

Lex Fridman (2:30:36.060)

So you're having a conversation, but you're like friends,

Lex Fridman (2:30:40.600)

but it's really you ranting,

Lex Fridman (2:30:43.180)

which I think you'd be extremely good at.

Tim Urban (2:30:46.100)

That's funny, yeah.

Lex Fridman (2:30:46.940)

Or even if it's 50 50, that's fine.

Tim Urban (2:30:48.820)

Like if it's just a friend who I want to like really riff

Lex Fridman (2:30:50.900)

with, I just don't like interviewing someone,

Tim Urban (2:30:55.380)

which I won't, that's not what the podcast will be,

Lex Fridman (2:30:57.200)

but I can't help.

Tim Urban (2:30:58.040)

I've tried moderating panels before

Lex Fridman (2:30:59.940)

and I cannot help myself.

Tim Urban (2:31:01.020)

I have to get involved and no one likes a moderator

Lex Fridman (2:31:03.340)

who's too involved.

Tim Urban (2:31:04.180)

It's very unappealing.

Lex Fridman (2:31:05.000)

So I, you know, interviewing someone and I'm like,

Tim Urban (2:31:07.600)

I can't, I don't even, I don't, I just, it's not my,

Lex Fridman (2:31:09.980)

I can grill someone, but that's different.

Lex Fridman (2:31:11.540)

That's my curiosity being like, wait, how about this?

Lex Fridman (2:31:13.720)

And I interrupt them and I'm trying to.

Tim Urban (2:31:14.740)

I see the way your brain works.

Lex Fridman (2:31:16.340)

It's hilarious.

Tim Urban (2:31:17.180)

It's awesome.

Lex Fridman (2:31:18.000)

It's like lights up with fire and excitement.

Tim Urban (2:31:19.940)

Yeah, I actually, I love listening.

Lex Fridman (2:31:21.820)

I like watching people, I like listening to people.

Lex Fridman (2:31:24.100)

So this is like me right now,

Lex Fridman (2:31:25.700)

having just listening to a podcast.

Tim Urban (2:31:27.900)

This is me listening to your podcast right now.

Lex Fridman (2:31:29.660)

I love listening to a podcast

Tim Urban (2:31:30.780)

because then it's not even like,

Lex Fridman (2:31:31.820)

but once I'm in the room, I suddenly can't help myself.

Tim Urban (2:31:33.980)

I jump again.

Lex Fridman (2:31:35.380)

Okay.

Tim Urban (2:31:36.700)

Big last ridiculous question.

Lex Fridman (2:31:38.400)

What is the meaning of life?

Lex Fridman (2:31:40.340)

The meaning of like an individual life?

Lex Fridman (2:31:42.380)

Your existence here on earth,

Tim Urban (2:31:44.260)

or maybe broadly this whole thing we've got going on,

Lex Fridman (2:31:47.200)

descendants of apes,

Tim Urban (2:31:49.340)

busily creating.

Lex Fridman (2:31:50.460)

Yeah, well there's, yeah.

Tim Urban (2:31:51.280)

For me, I feel like I want to be around as long as I can.

Lex Fridman (2:31:55.580)

If I can, if I can do some kind of crazy life extension

Tim Urban (2:31:57.840)

or upload myself, I'm gonna,

Lex Fridman (2:31:59.060)

because who doesn't want to see how cool

Lex Fridman (2:32:01.180)

the year 3000 is?

Lex Fridman (2:32:03.240)

Imagine.

Tim Urban (2:32:04.080)

You did say mortality was not appealing.

Lex Fridman (2:32:06.300)

No, it's not appealing at all to me.

Tim Urban (2:32:08.100)

Now, it's ultimately appealing.

Lex Fridman (2:32:10.180)

As I said, no one wants eternal life, I believe,

Tim Urban (2:32:12.260)

if they understood what eternity really was.

Lex Fridman (2:32:14.180)

And I did Graham's number as a post,

Lex Fridman (2:32:15.900)

and I was like, okay, no one wants to live that many years.

Lex Fridman (2:32:18.160)

But I'd like to choose.

Lex Fridman (2:32:19.340)

I'd like to say, you know what?

Lex Fridman (2:32:20.180)

I'm truly over it now, and I'm going to have,

Tim Urban (2:32:21.620)

you know, at that point we'd have,

Lex Fridman (2:32:22.700)

our whole society would have like,

Tim Urban (2:32:24.380)

we'd have a ceremony.

Lex Fridman (2:32:25.620)

We'd have a whole process of someone signing off,

Lex Fridman (2:32:28.060)

and you know, it would be beautiful,

Lex Fridman (2:32:29.420)

and it wouldn't be sad.

Tim Urban (2:32:30.260)

Well, I think you'd be super depressed by that point.

Lex Fridman (2:32:33.540)

Like, who's gonna sign off when they're doing pretty good?

Tim Urban (2:32:35.420)

Maybe, maybe, yes.

Lex Fridman (2:32:36.260)

Okay, maybe it's dark.

Lex Fridman (2:32:37.500)

But at least, but the point is,

Lex Fridman (2:32:38.740)

if I'm happy, I can stay around for five, you know.

Tim Urban (2:32:40.940)

I'm thinking 50 century sounds great.

Lex Fridman (2:32:42.740)

Like, I don't know if I want more than that.

Tim Urban (2:32:44.140)

50 sounds like a right number.

Lex Fridman (2:32:45.540)

And so if you're thinking, if you would sign up for 50,

Tim Urban (2:32:47.860)

if you had a choice, one is what I get, that is bullshit.

Lex Fridman (2:32:50.500)

Like, if you're somebody who wants 50,

Lex Fridman (2:32:52.820)

one is a hideous number, right?

Lex Fridman (2:32:55.500)

You know, anyway.

Lex Fridman (2:32:56.820)

So for me personally, I want to be around as long as I can.

Lex Fridman (2:33:01.100)

And then honestly, the reason I love writing,

Tim Urban (2:33:02.980)

the thing that I love most is like,

Lex Fridman (2:33:05.260)

is like a warm fuzzy connection with other people, right?

Lex Fridman (2:33:08.500)

And that can be my friends, and it can be readers.

Lex Fridman (2:33:11.780)

And that's why I would never want to be like a journalist

Tim Urban (2:33:13.920)

where their personality is like hidden behind the writing,

Lex Fridman (2:33:17.740)

or like even a biographer, you know.

Tim Urban (2:33:19.600)

There's a lot of people who are great writers,

Lex Fridman (2:33:21.240)

but it's, I like to personally connect.

Lex Fridman (2:33:23.620)

And if I can take something that's in my head

Lex Fridman (2:33:25.360)

and other people can say, oh my God, I think that too,

Lex Fridman (2:33:27.040)

and this made me feel so much better,

Lex Fridman (2:33:28.380)

it made me feel seen, like that feels amazing.

Lex Fridman (2:33:30.220)

And I just feel like we're all having

Lex Fridman (2:33:33.460)

such a weird common experience on this one little rock,

Tim Urban (2:33:35.940)

in this one little moment of time,

Lex Fridman (2:33:37.340)

where this weird, these weird four limb beings,

Lex Fridman (2:33:40.880)

and we're all the same.

Lex Fridman (2:33:41.720)

And it's like, we're all, we all, the human experience,

Lex Fridman (2:33:43.860)

so I feel like so many of us suffer in the same ways,

Lex Fridman (2:33:46.180)

and we're all going through a lot of the same things.

Lex Fridman (2:33:48.040)

And to me, it is very, if I lived,

Lex Fridman (2:33:50.420)

if I was on my deathbed and I feel like I had,

Tim Urban (2:33:52.160)

like I had a ton of human connection,

Lex Fridman (2:33:54.580)

and like shared a lot of common experience,

Lex Fridman (2:33:56.500)

and made a lot of other people feel like,

Lex Fridman (2:33:59.700)

like not alone.

Lex Fridman (2:34:01.460)

Do you feel that as a writer?

Lex Fridman (2:34:02.780)

Do you like hear and feel like the inspiration,

Tim Urban (2:34:08.060)

like all the people that you make smile,

Lex Fridman (2:34:10.460)

and all the people you inspire?

Tim Urban (2:34:11.380)

Honestly, not, sometimes, you know,

Lex Fridman (2:34:13.500)

when we did an in person event,

Lex Fridman (2:34:14.940)

and I, you know, meet a bunch of people,

Lex Fridman (2:34:16.260)

and it's incredibly gratifying,

Tim Urban (2:34:18.140)

or, you know, you just, you know, you get emails,

Lex Fridman (2:34:19.620)

but I think it is easy to forget that how many people,

Tim Urban (2:34:22.300)

sometimes you're just sitting there alone,

Lex Fridman (2:34:24.220)

typing, dealing with your procrastination.

Lex Fridman (2:34:26.900)

But that's why publishing is so gratifying,

Lex Fridman (2:34:28.220)

because that's the moment when all this connection happens.

Lex Fridman (2:34:30.280)

And especially if I had to put my finger on it,

Lex Fridman (2:34:32.220)

it's like, it's having a bunch of people who feel lonely,

Lex Fridman (2:34:35.460)

and their like existence is all realized,

Lex Fridman (2:34:37.060)

like all, you know, connect, right?

Lex Fridman (2:34:38.500)

So that, if I do a lot of that,

Lex Fridman (2:34:40.220)

and that includes, of course, my actual spending,

Tim Urban (2:34:43.060)

you know, a lot of really high quality time

Lex Fridman (2:34:44.520)

with friends and family, and like,

Lex Fridman (2:34:47.940)

and making the whole thing as heartbreaking

Lex Fridman (2:34:50.140)

as like mortality and life can be,

Tim Urban (2:34:51.900)

make the whole thing like fun,

Lex Fridman (2:34:53.420)

and at least we can like laugh at ourselves together

Tim Urban (2:34:55.700)

while going through it.

Lex Fridman (2:34:56.940)

And that to me is the, yeah.

Lex Fridman (2:34:58.500)

And then your last blog post will be written from Mars

Lex Fridman (2:35:02.620)

as you get the bad news that you're not able to return

Tim Urban (2:35:05.460)

because of the malfunction in the rocket.

Lex Fridman (2:35:07.740)

Yeah, I would like to go to Mars,

Lex Fridman (2:35:09.180)

and like go there for a week,

Lex Fridman (2:35:10.140)

and be like, yeah, here we are, and then come back.

Tim Urban (2:35:11.960)

No, I know that's what you want.

Lex Fridman (2:35:13.540)

Staying there, yeah.

Lex Fridman (2:35:14.820)

And that's fine, by the way.

Lex Fridman (2:35:15.740)

If I, yeah, if, so you think,

Tim Urban (2:35:17.780)

you're picturing me alone on Mars as the first person there,

Lex Fridman (2:35:20.760)

and then it malfunctions.

Tim Urban (2:35:21.600)

Right, no, you were supposed to return,

Lex Fridman (2:35:23.200)

but it malfunctions, and then there's this,

Lex Fridman (2:35:26.300)

so it's both the hope, the awe that you experience,

Lex Fridman (2:35:30.540)

which is how the blog starts,

Lex Fridman (2:35:32.420)

and then it's the overwhelming,

Lex Fridman (2:35:34.980)

like feeling of existential dread,

Lex Fridman (2:35:38.060)

but then it returns to like the love of humanity.

Lex Fridman (2:35:41.220)

Well, that's the thing, is if I could be writing,

Lex Fridman (2:35:43.780)

and actually like writing something

Lex Fridman (2:35:44.880)

that people would read back on Earth,

Tim Urban (2:35:46.060)

it would make it feel so much better.

Lex Fridman (2:35:47.300)

Yeah, yeah.

Tim Urban (2:35:48.120)

You know, if I were just alone,

Lex Fridman (2:35:48.960)

and no one was gonna realize what happened.

Tim Urban (2:35:50.620)

No, no, no, you get to write.

Lex Fridman (2:35:51.620)

Yeah, no, no, it's perfectly safe.

Tim Urban (2:35:53.180)

Also, that would bring out great writing.

Lex Fridman (2:35:54.940)

Yeah, I think so.

Tim Urban (2:35:55.780)

If you don't have your deathbed on Mars alone.

Lex Fridman (2:35:56.940)

I think so.

Tim Urban (2:35:57.780)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (2:35:58.600)

Well, that's exactly the future I hope for you, Tim.

Tim Urban (2:36:02.780)

All right, this was an incredible conversation.

Lex Fridman (2:36:04.500)

You're a really special human being, Tim.

Tim Urban (2:36:06.580)

Thank you so much for spending

Lex Fridman (2:36:08.980)

your really valuable time with me.

Tim Urban (2:36:10.140)

I can't wait to hear your podcast.

Lex Fridman (2:36:11.900)

I can't wait to read your next blog post,

Tim Urban (2:36:15.280)

which you said in a Twitter reply.

Lex Fridman (2:36:17.220)

You'll get more.

Tim Urban (2:36:19.460)

Yeah, soon enough, I'll be back.

Lex Fridman (2:36:20.940)

After the book, which add that to the long list of ideas

Tim Urban (2:36:24.580)

to procrastinate about.

Lex Fridman (2:36:26.700)

Tim, thanks so much for talking to me, man.

Tim Urban (2:36:28.700)

Thank you.

Lex Fridman (2:36:30.820)

Thanks for listening to this conversation with Tim Urban.

Tim Urban (2:36:33.620)

To support this podcast,

Lex Fridman (2:36:34.980)

please check out our sponsors in the description.

Lex Fridman (2:36:37.820)

And now, let me leave you with some words

Lex Fridman (2:36:39.860)

from Tim Urban himself.

Tim Urban (2:36:42.380)

Be humbler about what you know,

Lex Fridman (2:36:44.980)

more confident about what's possible,

Lex Fridman (2:36:47.460)

and less afraid of things that don't matter.

Lex Fridman (2:36:51.140)

Thanks for listening, and hope to see you next time.

Lex Fridman (30:00.620)

and then you're gonna need a ton of plumbing

Lex Fridman (30:03.360)

and everything that entails.

Lex Fridman (30:05.360)

And like you said, food, but also the manufacturer,

Lex Fridman (30:07.680)

so like turning raw materials into something useful,

Tim Urban (30:10.800)

that whole thing, like factories,

Lex Fridman (30:13.040)

some supply chain, transportation.

Tim Urban (30:15.560)

Right, I mean, you think about,

Lex Fridman (30:17.480)

when we talk about like world hunger,

Tim Urban (30:18.460)

one of the major problems is,

Lex Fridman (30:20.960)

there's plenty of food and by the time it arrives,

Tim Urban (30:22.760)

most of it's gone bad in the truck,

Lex Fridman (30:24.720)

in a kind of an impoverished place.

Lex Fridman (30:26.940)

So it's like, again, we take it so for granted,

Lex Fridman (30:29.680)

all the food in the supermarket is fresh, it's all there.

Lex Fridman (30:33.440)

And which always stresses me,

Lex Fridman (30:35.440)

if I were running a supermarket,

Tim Urban (30:36.440)

I would always be so like miserable

Lex Fridman (30:37.920)

about like things going bad on the shelves,

Tim Urban (30:41.620)

or if you don't have enough, that's not good,

Lex Fridman (30:43.080)

but if you have too much, it goes bad anyway.

Tim Urban (30:44.360)

Of course, there'll be entertainers too.

Lex Fridman (30:46.880)

Like somebody would have a YouTube channel

Tim Urban (30:48.960)

that's running on Mars.

Lex Fridman (30:50.840)

There is something different about a civilization on Mars

Lex Fridman (30:55.400)

and Earth existing versus like a civilization

Lex Fridman (30:59.240)

in the United States versus Russia and China.

Tim Urban (31:01.400)

Like that's a different,

Lex Fridman (31:03.240)

fundamentally different distance, like philosophically.

Lex Fridman (31:07.360)

Will it be like fuzzy?

Lex Fridman (31:08.200)

We know there'll be like a reality show on Mars

Tim Urban (31:09.940)

that everyone on Earth is obsessed with.

Lex Fridman (31:11.400)

And I think if people are going back and forth enough,

Tim Urban (31:15.160)

then it becomes fuzzy.

Lex Fridman (31:16.080)

It becomes like, oh, our friends on Mars.

Lex Fridman (31:17.600)

And there's like this Mars versus Earth,

Lex Fridman (31:19.600)

and it become like fun tribalism.

Tim Urban (31:22.640)

I think if people don't rarely go back and forth

Lex Fridman (31:25.240)

and it really, they're there for,

Tim Urban (31:26.240)

I think if you get kind of like, oh, we hate,

Lex Fridman (31:28.280)

a lot of like us versus them stuff going on.

Tim Urban (31:30.360)

There could be also war in space for territory.

Lex Fridman (31:33.880)

As a first colony happens, China, Russia,

Tim Urban (31:38.480)

or whoever the European, different European nations,

Lex Fridman (31:41.680)

Switzerland finally gets their act together

Lex Fridman (31:43.560)

and starts wars as opposed to staying out of all of them.

Lex Fridman (31:46.840)

Yeah, there's all kinds of crazy geopolitical things

Tim Urban (31:49.040)

that like we have not even,

Lex Fridman (31:51.000)

no one's really even thought about too much yet

Tim Urban (31:52.720)

that like, it could get weird.

Lex Fridman (31:54.440)

Think about the 1500s when it was suddenly like a race

Tim Urban (31:57.520)

to like colonize or capture land

Lex Fridman (32:00.380)

or discover new land that hasn't been,

Lex Fridman (32:02.360)

so it was like this new frontiers.

Lex Fridman (32:04.360)

There's not really, the land is not,

Tim Urban (32:06.840)

the thing about Crimea was like this huge thing

Lex Fridman (32:09.240)

because this tiny peninsula switched.

Tim Urban (32:11.260)

That's how like optimized everything has become.

Lex Fridman (32:13.980)

Everything is just like really stuck.

Tim Urban (32:16.400)

Mars is a whole new world of like,

Lex Fridman (32:18.500)

territory, naming things and you know,

Lex Fridman (32:22.340)

and it's a chance for new kind of governments maybe,

Lex Fridman (32:24.960)

or maybe it's just the colonies of these governments

Lex Fridman (32:27.440)

so we don't get that opportunity.

Lex Fridman (32:28.680)

I think it'd be cool if there's new countries

Tim Urban (32:30.000)

being totally new experiments.

Lex Fridman (32:32.160)

And that's fascinating because Elon talks exactly

Tim Urban (32:34.800)

about that and I believe that very much.

Lex Fridman (32:36.560)

Like that should be, like from the start,

Tim Urban (32:40.400)

they should determine their own sovereignty.

Lex Fridman (32:43.240)

Like they should determine their own thing.

Tim Urban (32:46.320)

There was one modern democracy in late 1700s, the US.

Lex Fridman (32:50.880)

I mean, it was the only modern democracy.

Lex Fridman (32:53.480)

And now of course, there's hundreds or dozen, many dozens.

Lex Fridman (32:57.600)

But I think part of the reason that was able to start,

Tim Urban (32:59.720)

I mean, it's not that people didn't have the idea,

Lex Fridman (33:01.040)

people had the idea, it was that they had a clean slate,

Tim Urban (33:04.440)

new place, and they suddenly were,

Lex Fridman (33:06.720)

so I think it would be a great opportunity to have,

Tim Urban (33:10.200)

there's a lot of people who have done that,

Lex Fridman (33:11.720)

oh, if I had my own government on an island,

Lex Fridman (33:13.920)

my own country, what would I do?

Lex Fridman (33:15.560)

And the US founders actually had the opportunity,

Tim Urban (33:20.120)

that fantasy, they were like, we can do it.

Lex Fridman (33:21.640)

Let's make, okay, what's the perfect country?

Lex Fridman (33:23.880)

And they tried to make something.

Lex Fridman (33:25.360)

Sometimes progress is, it's not held up by our imagination.

Tim Urban (33:29.480)

It's held up by just, there's no blank canvas

Lex Fridman (33:33.360)

to try something on.

Tim Urban (33:35.560)

Yeah, it's an opportunity for a fresh start.

Lex Fridman (33:37.480)

The funny thing about the conversation we're having

Tim Urban (33:39.440)

is not often had, I mean, even by Elon,

Lex Fridman (33:42.520)

he's so focused on Starship

Lex Fridman (33:43.720)

and actually putting the first human on Mars.

Lex Fridman (33:46.160)

I think thinking about this kind of stuff is inspiring.

Tim Urban (33:51.640)

It makes us dream, it makes us hope for the future.

Lex Fridman (33:55.160)

And it makes us somehow thinking about civilization on Mars

Tim Urban (33:59.080)

is helping us think about the civilization here on Earth.

Lex Fridman (34:03.240)

Yeah, totally. And how we should run it.

Tim Urban (34:05.040)

Well, what do you think are, like in our lifetime,

Lex Fridman (34:07.600)

are we gonna, I think any effort that goes to Mars,

Tim Urban (34:11.180)

the goal is in this decade.

Lex Fridman (34:13.280)

Do you think that's actually gonna be achieved?

Tim Urban (34:15.400)

I have a big bet, $10,000 with a friend

Lex Fridman (34:18.840)

when I was drunk in an argument.

Tim Urban (34:21.480)

This is great.

Lex Fridman (34:22.320)

That the Neil Armstrong of Mars,

Tim Urban (34:23.960)

whoever he or she may be, will set foot by the end of 2030.

Lex Fridman (34:28.680)

Now, this was probably in 2018 when I had this argument.

Lex Fridman (34:30.960)

So, like what if it?

Lex Fridman (34:31.800)

So, a human has to touch Mars by the end of 2030.

Tim Urban (34:35.560)

Oh, by the year 30.

Lex Fridman (34:37.120)

Yeah, by January 1st, 2031.

Tim Urban (34:39.600)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (34:41.680)

Did you agree on the time zone or what?

Tim Urban (34:44.120)

No, no.

Lex Fridman (34:44.960)

If it's coming on that exact day,

Tim Urban (34:46.080)

that's gonna be really stressful.

Lex Fridman (34:48.860)

But anyway, I think that there will be.

Tim Urban (34:52.120)

That was 2018.

Lex Fridman (34:53.240)

I was more confident then.

Tim Urban (34:54.920)

I think it's gonna be around this time.

Lex Fridman (34:56.240)

I mean, I still won the general bet

Tim Urban (34:58.240)

because his point was, you are crazy.

Lex Fridman (34:59.680)

This is not gonna happen in our lifetimes.

Tim Urban (35:01.120)

I've been offered many, many decades.

Lex Fridman (35:02.640)

And I said, you're wrong.

Tim Urban (35:03.520)

You don't know what's going on in SpaceX.

Lex Fridman (35:05.520)

I think if the world depended on it,

Tim Urban (35:08.200)

I think probably SpaceX could probably.

Lex Fridman (35:10.480)

I mean, I don't know this,

Lex Fridman (35:11.520)

but I think the tech is almost there.

Lex Fridman (35:14.440)

Like, I don't think, of course,

Tim Urban (35:16.600)

it's delayed many years by safety.

Lex Fridman (35:18.160)

So, they first wanna send a ship around Mars

Lex Fridman (35:20.360)

and they wanna land a cargo ship on Mars.

Lex Fridman (35:22.080)

And there's the moon on the way to.

Tim Urban (35:23.320)

Yeah, yeah, there's a lot.

Lex Fridman (35:24.360)

But I think the moon, a decade before,

Tim Urban (35:27.000)

seemed like magical tech that humans didn't have.

Lex Fridman (35:30.640)

This is like, no, we can,

Tim Urban (35:33.160)

it's totally conceivable that this,

Lex Fridman (35:35.600)

you've seen Starship,

Tim Urban (35:36.720)

like it is a interplanetary colonial

Lex Fridman (35:41.720)

or interplanetary transport like system.

Tim Urban (35:43.960)

That's what they used to call it.

Lex Fridman (35:45.400)

The SpaceX, the way they do it is,

Tim Urban (35:47.520)

every time they do a launch,

Lex Fridman (35:49.000)

something fails usually, when they're testing

Lex Fridman (35:52.120)

and they learn a thousand things.

Lex Fridman (35:54.280)

The amount of data they get and they improve so,

Tim Urban (35:57.320)

each one has, it's like they've moved up

Lex Fridman (36:00.120)

like eight generations in each one.

Tim Urban (36:01.560)

Anyway, so it's not inconceivable that pretty soon

Lex Fridman (36:04.480)

they could send a Starship to Mars and land it.

Tim Urban (36:07.600)

There's just no good reason

Lex Fridman (36:08.520)

I don't think that they couldn't do that.

Lex Fridman (36:09.800)

And so, if they could do that,

Lex Fridman (36:10.840)

they could in theory send a person to Mars pretty soon.

Tim Urban (36:13.880)

Now, taking off from Mars and coming back,

Lex Fridman (36:15.720)

again, I think, I don't think anyone want

Tim Urban (36:17.920)

to be on that voyage today because there's just,

Lex Fridman (36:20.320)

you know, they're still in,

Tim Urban (36:21.160)

it's still amateur hour here and getting that perfect.

Lex Fridman (36:24.640)

I don't think we're too far away now.

Tim Urban (36:25.960)

The question is, so every 26 months,

Lex Fridman (36:30.000)

Earth laps Mars, right?

Tim Urban (36:31.720)

It's like a sinusoidal, soil orbit

Lex Fridman (36:34.240)

or whatever it's called, the period, 26 months.

Lex Fridman (36:37.200)

So it's right now, like in the evens,

Lex Fridman (36:39.080)

like 2022 is gonna have one of these, late 2024.

Lex Fridman (36:43.000)

So people could, this was the earliest estimate I heard.

Lex Fridman (36:45.200)

Elon said, maybe we can send people to Mars in 2024,

Tim Urban (36:48.920)

you know, to land in early 2025.

Lex Fridman (36:51.720)

That is not gonna happen because that included 2022

Tim Urban (36:54.360)

sending a cargo ship to Mars, maybe even a one in 2020.

Lex Fridman (36:58.480)

And so I think they're not quite on that schedule,

Lex Fridman (37:00.080)

but to win my bet, 2027, I have a chance

Lex Fridman (37:03.360)

and 2029, I have another chance.

Tim Urban (37:05.520)

We're not very good at like backing up

Lex Fridman (37:06.880)

and seeing the big picture.

Tim Urban (37:07.720)

We're very distracted by what's going on today

Lex Fridman (37:09.280)

and what we can believe

Tim Urban (37:10.800)

because it's happening in front of our face.

Lex Fridman (37:12.440)

There's no way that humans gonna be landing on Mars

Lex Fridman (37:15.400)

and it's not gonna be the only thing

Lex Fridman (37:17.480)

everyone is talking about, right?

Tim Urban (37:18.840)

I mean, it's gonna be the moon landing,

Lex Fridman (37:20.480)

but even bigger deal, going to another planet, right?

Lex Fridman (37:23.040)

And for it to start a colony,

Lex Fridman (37:24.600)

not just to, again, high five and come back.

Lex Fridman (37:27.080)

So this is like the 2020s, maybe the 2030s

Lex Fridman (37:31.720)

is gonna be the new 1960s.

Tim Urban (37:33.160)

We're gonna have a space decade.

Lex Fridman (37:34.240)

I'm so excited about it.

Lex Fridman (37:35.960)

And again, it's one of the great leaps for all of life

Lex Fridman (37:38.040)

happening in our lifetimes, like that's wild.

Tim Urban (37:40.480)

To paint a slightly cynical possibility,

Lex Fridman (37:43.720)

which I don't see happening,

Lex Fridman (37:46.080)

but I just wanna put sort of value into leadership.

Lex Fridman (37:49.240)

I think it wasn't obvious that the moon landing

Tim Urban (37:52.560)

would be so exciting for all of human civilization.

Lex Fridman (37:55.000)

Some of that have to do with the right speeches,

Tim Urban (37:56.960)

with the space race.

Lex Fridman (37:58.880)

Like space, depending on how it's presented,

Tim Urban (38:01.720)

can be boring.

Lex Fridman (38:03.280)

I don't think it's been that so far, but I've actually.

Tim Urban (38:07.600)

I think space is quite boring right now.

Lex Fridman (38:10.200)

No, SpaceX is super, but like 10 years ago, space.

Tim Urban (38:13.840)

Some writer, I forget who wrote,

Lex Fridman (38:15.840)

it's like the best magic trick in the show

Tim Urban (38:17.680)

happened at the beginning.

Lex Fridman (38:18.560)

And now they're starting to do this like easy hazard.

Tim Urban (38:20.640)

It's like, you can't go in that direction.

Lex Fridman (38:21.720)

And the line that this writer said is like,

Tim Urban (38:23.600)

watching astronauts go up to the space station

Lex Fridman (38:28.480)

after watching the moon is like

Tim Urban (38:29.800)

watching Columbus sail to Ibiza.

Lex Fridman (38:31.840)

It's just like, everything is so practical.

Tim Urban (38:34.920)

You're going up to the space station, not to explore,

Lex Fridman (38:36.760)

but to do science experiments in microgravity.

Lex Fridman (38:38.640)

And you're sending rockets up,

Lex Fridman (38:41.560)

mostly here and there there's a probe,

Lex Fridman (38:43.120)

but mostly you're sending them up to put satellites

Lex Fridman (38:45.600)

for DirecTV or whatever it is.

Tim Urban (38:48.560)

It's kind of like lame earth industry usage.

Lex Fridman (38:51.880)

So I agree with you, space is boring there.

Tim Urban (38:55.560)

The first human setting foot on Mars,

Lex Fridman (38:59.760)

that's gotta be a crazy global event.

Tim Urban (39:01.680)

I can't imagine it not being.

Lex Fridman (39:02.880)

Maybe you're right.

Tim Urban (39:03.720)

Maybe I'm taking for granted the speeches

Lex Fridman (39:05.280)

and the space race and that.

Tim Urban (39:06.520)

I think the value of, I guess what I'm pushing

Lex Fridman (39:09.920)

is the value of people like Elon Musk

Lex Fridman (39:12.080)

and potentially other leaders that hopefully step up

Lex Fridman (39:14.480)

is extremely important here.

Tim Urban (39:16.160)

Like I would argue without the publicity of SpaceX,

Lex Fridman (39:19.240)

it's not just the ingenuity of SpaceX,

Lex Fridman (39:21.360)

but like what they've done publicly

Lex Fridman (39:23.400)

by having a figure that tweets

Lex Fridman (39:25.720)

and all that kind of stuff like that,

Lex Fridman (39:27.640)

that's a source of inspiration.

Tim Urban (39:29.560)

Totally.

Lex Fridman (39:30.400)

NASA wasn't able to quite pull off with a shuttle.

Tim Urban (39:32.680)

That's one of his two reasons for doing this.

Lex Fridman (39:35.000)

SpaceX exists for two reasons.

Tim Urban (39:37.240)

One, life insurance for the species.

Lex Fridman (39:41.680)

I always think about this way.

Tim Urban (39:42.560)

If you're an alien on some far away planet

Lex Fridman (39:44.440)

and you're rooting against humanity

Lex Fridman (39:46.680)

and you win the bet if humanity goes extinct,

Lex Fridman (39:49.560)

you do not like SpaceX.

Tim Urban (39:51.520)

You do not want them to have their eggs

Lex Fridman (39:53.000)

in two baskets now.

Tim Urban (39:54.160)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (39:56.880)

Sure, it's like obviously you could have something

Tim Urban (39:59.440)

that kills everyone on both planets,

Lex Fridman (40:00.600)

some AI war or something.

Lex Fridman (40:02.080)

But the point is obviously it's good for our chances,

Lex Fridman (40:06.840)

our longterm chances to be having

Tim Urban (40:08.560)

two self sustaining civilizations going on.

Lex Fridman (40:11.320)

The second reason, he values this I think just as high

Tim Urban (40:15.000)

is it's the greatest adventure in history

Lex Fridman (40:17.360)

going multi planetary and that people need some reason

Tim Urban (40:21.000)

to wake up in the morning

Lex Fridman (40:21.960)

and it'll just be this hopefully great uniting event too.

Tim Urban (40:26.240)

I mean, today's nasty, awful political environment,

Lex Fridman (40:29.560)

which is like a whirlpool that sucks everything into it.

Lex Fridman (40:34.080)

So you name a thing and it's become a nasty political topic.

Lex Fridman (40:38.000)

So I hope that space can,

Tim Urban (40:42.720)

Mars can just bring everyone together,

Lex Fridman (40:44.760)

but it could become this hideous thing

Tim Urban (40:46.920)

where it's a billionaire,

Lex Fridman (40:48.640)

some annoying storyline gets built.

Lex Fridman (40:50.720)

So half the people think that anyone who's excited about Mars

Lex Fridman (40:53.160)

is an evil something.

Tim Urban (40:55.720)

Anyway, I hope it is super exciting.

Lex Fridman (40:57.920)

So far space has been a uniting, inspiring thing.

Lex Fridman (41:03.200)

And in fact, especially during this time of a pandemic

Lex Fridman (41:06.000)

has been just a commercial entity

Tim Urban (41:08.960)

putting out humans into space for the first time

Lex Fridman (41:12.080)

was just one of the only big sources of hope.

Tim Urban (41:15.240)

Totally in awe, just like watching this huge skyscraper

Lex Fridman (41:19.000)

go up in the air, flip over, go back down and land.

Tim Urban (41:21.440)

I mean, it just makes everyone just wanna sit back

Lex Fridman (41:23.160)

and clap and kinda like,

Tim Urban (41:25.000)

the way I look at something like SpaceX

Lex Fridman (41:26.640)

is it makes me proud to be a human.

Lex Fridman (41:30.240)

And I think it makes a lot of people feel that way.

Lex Fridman (41:31.480)

It's like good for our self esteem.

Lex Fridman (41:33.240)

It's like, you know what?

Lex Fridman (41:34.080)

We're pretty, we have a lot of problems,

Lex Fridman (41:35.640)

but like we're kind of awesome.

Lex Fridman (41:36.960)

And if we can put people on Mars,

Tim Urban (41:39.000)

sticking up an earth flag on Mars,

Lex Fridman (41:41.400)

like damn, we should be so proud

Tim Urban (41:43.800)

of our like little family here.

Lex Fridman (41:45.360)

Like we did something cool.

Lex Fridman (41:46.440)

And by the way, I've made it clear to SpaceX people,

Lex Fridman (41:51.160)

including Elon, many times,

Lex Fridman (41:52.520)

and it's like once a year reminder

Lex Fridman (41:54.000)

that if they want to make this more exciting,

Tim Urban (41:56.880)

they send the writer to Mars on the thing.

Lex Fridman (42:00.840)

And I'll blog about it.

Lex Fridman (42:02.320)

So I'm just continuing to throw this out there.

Lex Fridman (42:04.920)

On which trip?

Tim Urban (42:05.760)

I'm trying to get them to send me to Mars.

Lex Fridman (42:07.480)

No, I understand that.

Lex Fridman (42:08.840)

So I just wanna clarify

Lex Fridman (42:10.280)

on which trip does the writer wanna go?

Tim Urban (42:12.400)

I think my dream one, to be honest,

Lex Fridman (42:14.120)

would be like the Apollo eight,

Tim Urban (42:16.960)

where they just looped around the moon and came back.

Lex Fridman (42:19.720)

Cause landing on Mars.

Tim Urban (42:22.680)

Give you a lot of good content to write about.

Lex Fridman (42:24.880)

Great content, right?

Tim Urban (42:26.200)

I mean, the amount of kind of high minded,

Lex Fridman (42:28.680)

and so I would go into the thing

Lex Fridman (42:30.160)

and I would blog about it and I'd be in microgravity.

Lex Fridman (42:34.080)

So I'd be bouncing around my little space.

Tim Urban (42:35.480)

I get a little, they can just send me in a dragon.

Lex Fridman (42:37.040)

They don't need to do a whole starship.

Lex Fridman (42:38.520)

And I would bounce around and I would get to,

Lex Fridman (42:41.840)

I've always had a dream of going

Tim Urban (42:43.640)

to like one of those nice jails for a year.

Lex Fridman (42:47.280)

Because I just have nothing to do besides like read books

Lex Fridman (42:49.560)

and no responsibilities and no social plans.

Lex Fridman (42:51.520)

So this is the ultimate version of that.

Tim Urban (42:53.560)

Anyway, it's a side topic, but I think it would be.

Lex Fridman (42:55.320)

But also if you, I mean, to be honest,

Tim Urban (42:57.280)

if you land on Mars, it's epic.

Lex Fridman (43:00.040)

And then if you die there of like finishing your writing,

Tim Urban (43:04.080)

it will be just even that much more powerful

Lex Fridman (43:06.600)

for the impact.

Tim Urban (43:08.400)

Yeah, but then I'm gone.

Lex Fridman (43:09.760)

And I don't even get to like experience the publication

Tim Urban (43:12.160)

of it, which is the whole point of some of the greatest

Lex Fridman (43:14.360)

writers in history didn't get a chance to experience

Tim Urban (43:16.920)

the publication of their.

Lex Fridman (43:18.080)

I know, I don't really think that I think like,

Tim Urban (43:19.800)

I think back to Jesus and I'm like, oh man,

Lex Fridman (43:21.360)

that guy really like crushed it, you know?

Lex Fridman (43:23.200)

But then if you think about it,

Lex Fridman (43:26.080)

it doesn't like you could literally die today

Lex Fridman (43:28.360)

and then become the next Jesus, like 2000 years from now

Lex Fridman (43:31.280)

in this civilization that's like, there are, you know,

Tim Urban (43:33.560)

they're like in magical in the clouds

Lex Fridman (43:35.860)

and they're worshiping you, they're worshiping Lex.

Lex Fridman (43:38.760)

And like, that sounds like your ego probably would be like,

Lex Fridman (43:40.680)

wow, that's pretty cool, except irrelevant to you

Tim Urban (43:43.120)

because you never even knew it happened.

Lex Fridman (43:44.280)

This feels like a Rick and Morty episode.

Tim Urban (43:46.520)

It does, it does.

Lex Fridman (43:47.960)

Okay, you've talked to Elon quite a bit,

Tim Urban (43:51.760)

you've written about him quite a bit.

Lex Fridman (43:53.880)

Just, it'd be cool to hear you talk about

Lex Fridman (43:58.320)

what are your ideas of what, you know,

Lex Fridman (44:00.200)

the magic sauces you've written about with Elon.

Lex Fridman (44:02.960)

What makes him so successful?

Lex Fridman (44:06.080)

His style of thinking, his ambition, his dreams,

Tim Urban (44:09.040)

his, the people he connects with,

Lex Fridman (44:11.780)

the kind of problems he tackles.

Tim Urban (44:13.120)

Is there a kind of comments you can make

Lex Fridman (44:14.740)

about what makes him special?

Tim Urban (44:16.240)

I think that obviously there's a lot of things

Lex Fridman (44:18.480)

that he's very good at.

Tim Urban (44:19.400)

He has, he's obviously super intelligent.

Lex Fridman (44:23.240)

His heart is very much in like, I think the right place.

Tim Urban (44:25.940)

Like, you know, I really, really believe that like,

Lex Fridman (44:28.720)

and I think people can sense that, you know,

Tim Urban (44:30.120)

he just doesn't seem like a grifter of any kind.

Lex Fridman (44:32.840)

He's truly trying to do these big things

Tim Urban (44:34.560)

for the right reasons.

Lex Fridman (44:36.080)

And he's obviously crazy ambitious and hardworking, right?

Tim Urban (44:38.360)

Not everyone is.

Lex Fridman (44:39.200)

Some people are as talented and have cool visions,

Lex Fridman (44:40.880)

but they just don't wanna spend their life that way.

Lex Fridman (44:43.800)

So, but that's, none of those alone

Tim Urban (44:46.420)

is what makes Elon, Elon.

Lex Fridman (44:48.120)

I mean, if it were, there'd be more of him

Tim Urban (44:49.840)

because there's a lot of people that are very smart

Lex Fridman (44:51.480)

and smart enough to accumulate a lot of money and influence

Lex Fridman (44:53.920)

and they have great ambition and they have, you know,

Lex Fridman (44:56.920)

their hearts in the right place.

Tim Urban (44:58.800)

To me, it is the very unusual quality he has

Lex Fridman (45:01.980)

is that he's sane in a way

Tim Urban (45:04.020)

that almost every human is crazy.

Lex Fridman (45:06.360)

What I mean by that is we are programmed

Tim Urban (45:10.480)

to trust conventional wisdom over our own reasoning

Lex Fridman (45:17.560)

for good reason.

Tim Urban (45:19.120)

If you go back 50,000 years and conventional wisdom says,

Lex Fridman (45:22.800)

you know, don't eat that berry, you know,

Tim Urban (45:26.020)

or this is the way you tie a spearhead to a spear.

Lex Fridman (45:29.920)

And you're thinking, I'm smarter than that.

Tim Urban (45:31.680)

Like, you're not.

Lex Fridman (45:32.640)

You know, that comes from the accumulation

Tim Urban (45:35.080)

of life experience, accumulation of observation

Lex Fridman (45:37.040)

and experience over many generations.

Lex Fridman (45:39.640)

And that's a little mini version

Lex Fridman (45:41.760)

of the collective super intelligence.

Tim Urban (45:43.360)

It's like, you know, it's equivalent

Lex Fridman (45:45.360)

of like making a pencil today.

Tim Urban (45:46.640)

Like people back then, like the conventional wisdom,

Lex Fridman (45:51.840)

like had this super, this knowledge

Tim Urban (45:54.160)

that no human could ever accumulate.

Lex Fridman (45:56.080)

So we're very wired to trust it.

Tim Urban (45:57.720)

Plus the secondary thing is that the people who, you know,

Lex Fridman (46:00.820)

just say that they believe the mountain is,

Lex Fridman (46:02.720)

they worship the mountain as their God, right?

Lex Fridman (46:04.680)

And the mountain determines their fate.

Lex Fridman (46:06.120)

That's not true, right?

Lex Fridman (46:07.340)

And the conventional wisdom is wrong there,

Lex Fridman (46:08.600)

but believing it was helpful to survival

Lex Fridman (46:12.720)

because you were part of the crowd

Lex Fridman (46:15.280)

and you stayed in the tribe.

Lex Fridman (46:16.120)

And if you started to, you know, insult the mountain God

Lex Fridman (46:20.240)

and say, that's just a mountain, it's not, you know,

Lex Fridman (46:22.220)

you didn't fare very well, right?

Lex Fridman (46:23.320)

So for a lot of reasons, it was a great survival trait

Lex Fridman (46:25.840)

to just trust what other people said and believe it.

Lex Fridman (46:29.400)

And truly, you know, obviously, you know,

Lex Fridman (46:30.720)

the more you really believed it, the better.

Tim Urban (46:32.960)

Today, conventional wisdom in a rapidly changing world

Lex Fridman (46:39.880)

and a huge giant society,

Tim Urban (46:42.400)

our brains are not built to understand that.

Lex Fridman (46:44.160)

They have a few settings, you know,

Lex Fridman (46:45.680)

and none of them is, you know,

Lex Fridman (46:47.760)

300 million person society.

Lex Fridman (46:49.560)

So your brain is basically,

Lex Fridman (46:54.840)

is treating a lot of things like a small tribe,

Tim Urban (46:57.740)

even though they're not,

Lex Fridman (46:58.580)

and they're treating conventional wisdom as, you know,

Tim Urban (47:01.600)

very wise in a way that it's not.

Lex Fridman (47:03.640)

If you think about it this way, it's like, picture a,

Tim Urban (47:05.800)

like a bucket that's not moving very much,

Lex Fridman (47:08.180)

moving like a millimeter a year.

Lex Fridman (47:09.480)

And so it has time to collect a lot of water in it.

Lex Fridman (47:11.200)

That's like conventional wisdom in the old days

Tim Urban (47:12.600)

when very few things changed.

Lex Fridman (47:13.640)

Like your 10, you know, great, great, great grandmother

Tim Urban (47:15.900)

probably lived a similar life to you,

Lex Fridman (47:17.040)

maybe on the same piece of land.

Lex Fridman (47:19.280)

And so old people really knew what they were talking about.

Lex Fridman (47:21.140)

Today, the bucket's moving really quickly.

Lex Fridman (47:23.360)

And so, you know, the wisdom doesn't accumulate,

Lex Fridman (47:25.160)

but we think it does because our brain settings

Tim Urban (47:27.240)

doesn't have the, oh, move, you know,

Lex Fridman (47:29.020)

quickly moving bucket setting on it.

Lex Fridman (47:31.480)

So my grandmother gives me advice all the time,

Lex Fridman (47:35.660)

and I have to decide, is this,

Lex Fridman (47:38.460)

so there are certain things that are not changing,

Lex Fridman (47:40.220)

like relationships and love and loyalty

Lex Fridman (47:42.760)

and things like this.

Lex Fridman (47:44.020)

Her advice on those things, I'll listen to it all day.

Tim Urban (47:45.740)

She's one of the people who said,

Lex Fridman (47:46.840)

you've got to live near your people you love,

Lex Fridman (47:48.520)

live near your family, right?

Lex Fridman (47:50.020)

I think that is like tremendous wisdom, right?

Tim Urban (47:52.840)

That is wisdom, because that's happens to be something

Lex Fridman (47:54.440)

that hasn't, doesn't change from generation to generation.

Tim Urban (47:56.640)

For now.

Lex Fridman (47:57.480)

Right, she all, right, for now.

Tim Urban (47:59.660)

She's also telling, right, so I'll be the idiot

Lex Fridman (48:01.560)

telling my brain that they'll actually be in the,

Tim Urban (48:03.400)

it's a metaverse, like being like, it doesn't matter.

Lex Fridman (48:05.760)

And I'm like, you have to, it's not the same

Tim Urban (48:07.480)

when you're not in person.

Lex Fridman (48:08.320)

They're gonna say, it's exactly the same, grandpa.

Lex Fridman (48:10.440)

And they'll also be thinking to me with their near link,

Lex Fridman (48:12.560)

and I'm gonna be like, slow down.

Tim Urban (48:13.920)

I don't understand what you're saying.

Lex Fridman (48:15.000)

You just talk like a normal person.

Tim Urban (48:16.600)

Anyway, so my grandmother then, but then she says,

Lex Fridman (48:19.520)

you know, you're, I don't know about this writing

Tim Urban (48:21.320)

you're doing, you should go to law school,

Lex Fridman (48:23.100)

and you know, you want to be secure.

Lex Fridman (48:25.160)

And that's not good advice for me.

Lex Fridman (48:26.800)

You know, given the world I'm in,

Lex Fridman (48:28.080)

and what I like to do, and what I'm good at,

Lex Fridman (48:30.720)

that's not the right advice.

Lex Fridman (48:31.820)

But because the world is totally,

Lex Fridman (48:33.960)

she's in a different world.

Lex Fridman (48:34.800)

So she became wise for a world that's no longer here, right?

Lex Fridman (48:37.480)

Now, if you think about that,

Lex Fridman (48:38.820)

so then when we think about conventional wisdom,

Lex Fridman (48:40.620)

it's a little like my grandmother,

Lex Fridman (48:41.820)

and there's a lot of, no, it's not maybe, you know,

Lex Fridman (48:45.080)

60 years outdated like her software.

Tim Urban (48:47.160)

It's maybe 10 years outdated conventional wisdom,

Lex Fridman (48:50.240)

sometimes 20.

Lex Fridman (48:51.540)

So anyway, I think that we all continually

Lex Fridman (48:55.540)

don't have the confidence in our own reasoning

Tim Urban (48:58.540)

when it conflicts with what everyone else thinks,

Lex Fridman (49:00.760)

when with what seems right.

Tim Urban (49:02.800)

We don't have the guts to act on that reasoning

Lex Fridman (49:06.140)

for that reason, right?

Tim Urban (49:07.080)

You know, we, and so there's so many Elon examples.

Lex Fridman (49:11.000)

I mean, just from the beginning,

Tim Urban (49:12.240)

building Zip2 was his first company.

Lex Fridman (49:15.640)

And it was internet advertising at the time

Tim Urban (49:19.400)

when people said, you know, this internet was brand new,

Lex Fridman (49:22.120)

like kind of thinking of like the metaverse,

Tim Urban (49:24.000)

VR metaverse today.

Lex Fridman (49:24.880)

And people would be like, oh, we, you know,

Tim Urban (49:27.000)

we facilitate internet advertising.

Lex Fridman (49:29.120)

People were saying, yeah, people are gonna advertise

Tim Urban (49:30.720)

on the internet, yeah, right.

Lex Fridman (49:32.000)

Actually, it wasn't that he's magical and saw the future,

Tim Urban (49:34.720)

it's that he looked at the present,

Lex Fridman (49:36.240)

looked at what the internet was,

Tim Urban (49:38.480)

thought about, you know, the obvious

Lex Fridman (49:40.920)

like advertising opportunity this was gonna be.

Tim Urban (49:43.960)

It wasn't rocket science.

Lex Fridman (49:45.320)

It wasn't genius, I don't believe.

Tim Urban (49:46.760)

I think it was just seeing the truth.

Lex Fridman (49:48.840)

And when everyone else is laughing,

Tim Urban (49:50.200)

saying, well, you're wrong.

Lex Fridman (49:51.520)

I mean, I did the math and here it is, right?

Tim Urban (49:54.720)

Next company, you know, x.com,

Lex Fridman (49:56.760)

which became eventually PayPal.

Tim Urban (49:59.640)

People said, oh yeah, people are gonna put

Lex Fridman (50:00.720)

their financial information on the internet.

Tim Urban (50:02.760)

No way.

Lex Fridman (50:05.160)

To us, it seems so obvious.

Tim Urban (50:06.200)

If you went back then, you would probably feel the same.

Lex Fridman (50:08.040)

You'd think this is, that is a fake company that no,

Tim Urban (50:11.000)

it's just obviously not a good idea.

Lex Fridman (50:12.880)

He looked around and said, you know, I see where this is.

Lex Fridman (50:14.400)

And so again, he could see where it was going

Lex Fridman (50:15.720)

because he could see what it was that day

Lex Fridman (50:17.240)

and not what it, you know, not people, conventional wisdom

Lex Fridman (50:19.280)

was still a bunch of years earlier.

Tim Urban (50:21.680)

SpaceX is the ultimate example.

Lex Fridman (50:23.560)

A friend of his apparently bought,

Tim Urban (50:25.000)

actually compiled a montage, video montage

Lex Fridman (50:28.360)

of rockets blowing up to show him this is not a good idea.

Lex Fridman (50:32.100)

And if, but just even the bigger picture,

Lex Fridman (50:34.480)

the amount of billionaires who have like thought

Tim Urban (50:36.240)

this was, I'm gonna start launching rockets

Lex Fridman (50:38.800)

and you know, the amount that failed.

Tim Urban (50:40.380)

I mean, it's not, conventional wisdom said

Lex Fridman (50:43.560)

this isn't a bad endeavor.

Tim Urban (50:44.640)

He was putting all of his money into it.

Lex Fridman (50:45.960)

Yeah, landing rockets was another thing.

Tim Urban (50:49.280)

You know, well, if you know,

Lex Fridman (50:50.520)

here's the classic kind of way we reason,

Tim Urban (50:52.880)

which is if this could be done,

Lex Fridman (50:55.480)

NASA would have done it a long time ago

Tim Urban (50:57.280)

because of the money it would save.

Lex Fridman (50:58.620)

This could be done, the Soviet Union

Tim Urban (50:59.760)

would have done it back in the sixties.

Lex Fridman (51:01.680)

It's obviously something that can't be done.

Lex Fridman (51:03.480)

And the math on his envelope said,

Lex Fridman (51:06.280)

well, I think it can be done.

Lex Fridman (51:07.240)

And so he just did it.

Lex Fridman (51:08.140)

So in each of these cases, I think actually in some ways,

Tim Urban (51:10.500)

Elon gets too much credit as, you know,

Lex Fridman (51:12.280)

people think it's that he's, you know,

Tim Urban (51:13.940)

it's that his Einstein intelligence

Lex Fridman (51:15.400)

or he can see the future.

Tim Urban (51:16.680)

He has incredible, he has incredible guts.

Lex Fridman (51:19.560)

He's so, you know, courageous.

Tim Urban (51:20.820)

I think if you actually are looking at reality

Lex Fridman (51:24.760)

and you're just assessing probabilities

Lex Fridman (51:26.680)

and you're ignoring all the noise, which is wrong,

Lex Fridman (51:29.160)

so wrong, right?

Lex Fridman (51:30.320)

And you just, then you just have to be, you know,

Lex Fridman (51:33.040)

pretty smart and pretty courageous.

Lex Fridman (51:36.460)

And you have to have this magical ability to be seen

Lex Fridman (51:39.720)

and trust your reasoning over conventional wisdom

Tim Urban (51:42.240)

because your individual reasoning, you know,

Lex Fridman (51:44.560)

part of it is that we see that we can't build a pencil.

Tim Urban (51:46.800)

We can't build, you know,

Lex Fridman (51:48.160)

this civilization on our own, right?

Lex Fridman (51:49.920)

So we kind of count, you know,

Lex Fridman (51:51.640)

count to the collective for good reasons.

Lex Fridman (51:56.320)

But this is different when it comes to kind of

Lex Fridman (51:57.840)

what's possible, you know,

Tim Urban (51:59.200)

the Beatles were doing their kind of Motowny chord patterns

Lex Fridman (52:02.800)

in the early sixties.

Lex Fridman (52:03.760)

And they were doing what was normal.

Lex Fridman (52:05.560)

They were doing what was clearly this kind of sound is a hit.

Tim Urban (52:08.900)

Then they started getting weird

Lex Fridman (52:10.040)

because they were so popular.

Tim Urban (52:11.480)

They had this confidence to say,

Lex Fridman (52:12.600)

let's just, we're gonna start just experimenting.

Lex Fridman (52:15.160)

And it turns out that like,

Lex Fridman (52:17.200)

if you just, all these people are in this,

Tim Urban (52:18.560)

like one groove together doing music,

Lex Fridman (52:20.280)

and it's just like, there's a lot of land over there.

Lex Fridman (52:22.920)

And it seems like, you know,

Lex Fridman (52:24.480)

I'm sure the managers would say,

Lex Fridman (52:25.800)

and that the, all the record execs would say,

Lex Fridman (52:28.040)

no, you have to be here.

Tim Urban (52:29.000)

This is what sells.

Lex Fridman (52:30.440)

And it's just not true.

Lex Fridman (52:31.920)

So I think that Elon is why,

Lex Fridman (52:33.280)

that's why the term for this

Tim Urban (52:35.320)

that actually Elon likes to use

Lex Fridman (52:36.920)

is reasoning from first principles, the physics term.

Tim Urban (52:39.960)

First principles are your axioms.

Lex Fridman (52:41.720)

And physicists, they don't say, well, what's,

Lex Fridman (52:43.480)

you know, what do people think?

Lex Fridman (52:44.960)

No, they say, what are the axioms?

Tim Urban (52:46.340)

Those are the puzzle pieces.

Lex Fridman (52:47.320)

Let's use those to build a conclusion.

Tim Urban (52:49.320)

That's our hypothesis.

Lex Fridman (52:50.240)

Now let's test it, right?

Lex Fridman (52:51.280)

And they come up with all kinds of new things

Lex Fridman (52:53.320)

constantly by doing that.

Tim Urban (52:55.080)

If Einstein was assuming conventional wisdom was right,

Lex Fridman (52:57.480)

he never would have even tried to create something

Tim Urban (52:59.400)

that really disproved Newton's laws.

Lex Fridman (53:02.120)

And the other way to reason is reasoning by analogy,

Tim Urban (53:05.480)

which is a great shortcut.

Lex Fridman (53:08.160)

It's when we look at other people's reasoning

Lex Fridman (53:10.500)

and we kind of photocopy it into our head, we steal it.

Lex Fridman (53:13.280)

So reasoning by analogy, we do all the time.

Lex Fridman (53:15.940)

And it's usually a good thing.

Lex Fridman (53:17.040)

I mean, we don't, it takes a lot of mental energy and time

Tim Urban (53:19.620)

to reason from first principles.

Lex Fridman (53:20.600)

It's actually, you know,

Lex Fridman (53:21.500)

you don't wanna reinvent the wheel every time, right?

Lex Fridman (53:23.320)

You want to often copy other people's reasoning

Tim Urban (53:26.400)

most of the time.

Lex Fridman (53:27.240)

And I, you know, most of us do it most of the time

Lex Fridman (53:28.720)

and that's good, but there's certain moments

Lex Fridman (53:30.000)

when you're, forget just for a second,

Tim Urban (53:31.520)

like succeeding in like the world of like Elon,

Lex Fridman (53:34.500)

just who you're gonna marry,

Lex Fridman (53:35.600)

where are you gonna settle down?

Lex Fridman (53:36.600)

How are you gonna raise your kids?

Lex Fridman (53:38.820)

How are you gonna educate your kids?

Lex Fridman (53:40.880)

How you should educate yourself?

Lex Fridman (53:42.240)

What kind of career paths in terms,

Lex Fridman (53:43.720)

these moments, this is what on your death bed,

Tim Urban (53:45.720)

like you look back on and that's what,

Lex Fridman (53:47.120)

these are the few number of choices

Tim Urban (53:49.280)

that really define your life.

Lex Fridman (53:50.480)

Those should not be reasoned by analogy.

Tim Urban (53:52.280)

You should absolutely try to reason from first principles.

Lex Fridman (53:55.200)

And Elon, not just by the way in his work,

Lex Fridman (53:58.320)

but in his personal life.

Lex Fridman (53:59.360)

I mean, if you just look at the way he's on Twitter,

Tim Urban (54:01.440)

he's not, it's not how you're supposed to be

Lex Fridman (54:03.400)

when you're a super famous, you know, industry titan.

Tim Urban (54:07.280)

You're not supposed to just be silly on Twitter

Lex Fridman (54:08.880)

and do memes and getting little quibbles with you.

Tim Urban (54:11.840)

He just does things his own way,

Lex Fridman (54:14.320)

regardless of what you're supposed to do,

Tim Urban (54:15.880)

which sometimes serves him and sometimes doesn't,

Lex Fridman (54:17.640)

but I think it has taken him where it has taken him.

Tim Urban (54:21.520)

Yeah, I mean, I probably wouldn't describe

Lex Fridman (54:23.400)

his approach to Twitter as first principles,

Lex Fridman (54:26.000)

but I guess it has the same element.

Lex Fridman (54:26.820)

I think it is.

Tim Urban (54:28.320)

Well, first of all, I will say that a lot of tweets,

Lex Fridman (54:30.060)

people think, oh, like he's gonna be done after that.

Tim Urban (54:32.560)

He's fine, he's just one man, time man of the year.

Lex Fridman (54:35.440)

Like it's something, it's not sinking him,

Lex Fridman (54:38.560)

and I think, you know, it's not that I think

Lex Fridman (54:40.600)

this is like super reasoned out.

Tim Urban (54:41.760)

I think that, you know, Twitter is his silly side,

Lex Fridman (54:43.440)

but I think that he saw,

Tim Urban (54:48.280)

his reasoning did not feel like there was a giant risk

Lex Fridman (54:50.800)

in just being his silly self on Twitter,

Tim Urban (54:52.520)

when a lot of billionaires would say,

Lex Fridman (54:53.600)

well, no one else is doing that.

Lex Fridman (54:55.560)

So it must be a good reason, right?

Lex Fridman (54:58.160)

Well, I gotta say that he inspires me to,

Tim Urban (55:01.120)

that's okay to be silly.

Lex Fridman (55:02.880)

Totally. On Twitter.

Tim Urban (55:04.240)

And, but yeah, you're right.

Lex Fridman (55:06.680)

The big inspiration is the willingness to do that

Tim Urban (55:09.000)

when nobody else is doing it.

Lex Fridman (55:11.040)

Yeah, and I think about all the great artists,

Tim Urban (55:13.280)

you know, all the great inventors and entrepreneurs,

Lex Fridman (55:16.240)

almost all of them,

Tim Urban (55:17.800)

they had a moment when they trusted their reasoning.

Lex Fridman (55:19.480)

I mean, Airbnb was over 60 with VCs.

Tim Urban (55:24.920)

A lot of people would say,

Lex Fridman (55:25.840)

obviously they know something we don't, right?

Lex Fridman (55:28.960)

But they didn't, they said, eh, I think they're all wrong.

Lex Fridman (55:30.680)

I mean, that's, that takes some kind of different wiring

Tim Urban (55:32.980)

in your brain.

Lex Fridman (55:34.240)

And then that's both for big picture

Lex Fridman (55:36.440)

and detailed like engineering problems.

Lex Fridman (55:39.520)

It's fun to talk to him.

Tim Urban (55:40.800)

It's fun to talk to Jim Keller,

Lex Fridman (55:42.200)

who's a good example of this kind of thinking

Tim Urban (55:44.520)

about like manufacturing, how to get costs down.

Lex Fridman (55:47.560)

They always talk about like,

Tim Urban (55:49.080)

they talk about SpaceX rockets this way.

Lex Fridman (55:52.240)

They talk about manufacturing this way,

Tim Urban (55:53.900)

like cost per pound or per ton to get to orbit

Lex Fridman (56:01.200)

or something like that.

Tim Urban (56:02.560)

This is all the reason we need to get the cost down.

Lex Fridman (56:04.640)

It's a very kind of raw materials.

Tim Urban (56:07.120)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (56:07.960)

Like just very basic way of thinking.

Tim Urban (56:10.520)

First principles.

Lex Fridman (56:11.680)

It's really, yeah.

Lex Fridman (56:12.920)

And the first principles of a rocket

Lex Fridman (56:14.040)

are like the price of raw materials

Lex Fridman (56:16.400)

and gravity, you know, and wind.

Lex Fridman (56:19.840)

I mean, these are your first principles and fuel.

Tim Urban (56:24.540)

Henry Ford, you know, what made Henry Ford blow up

Lex Fridman (56:29.160)

as an entrepreneur?

Lex Fridman (56:30.680)

The assembly line, right?

Lex Fridman (56:32.040)

I mean, he thought for a second and said,

Tim Urban (56:35.160)

this isn't how manufacturing is normally done this way,

Lex Fridman (56:38.280)

but I think this is a different kind of product.

Lex Fridman (56:40.680)

And that's what changed it.

Lex Fridman (56:42.040)

And then what happened is when someone reasons

Tim Urban (56:43.640)

from first principles, they often fail.

Lex Fridman (56:45.280)

You know, you're going out into the fog

Tim Urban (56:47.640)

with no conventional wisdom to guide you.

Lex Fridman (56:49.320)

But when you succeed, what you notice is that

Lex Fridman (56:51.200)

everyone else turns and says, wait, what, what?

Lex Fridman (56:52.800)

What are they doing?

Lex Fridman (56:53.640)

And they all, they flock over.

Lex Fridman (56:55.220)

Look at the iPhone.

Tim Urban (56:56.480)

iPhone, you know, Steve Jobs was obviously famously good

Lex Fridman (56:58.780)

at reasoning from first principles

Tim Urban (57:00.120)

because that guy had crazy self confidence.

Lex Fridman (57:02.840)

He just said, you know, if I think this is right,

Tim Urban (57:04.840)

like everyone, and that, I mean, I don't know how,

Lex Fridman (57:06.320)

I don't know how he does that.

Lex Fridman (57:07.520)

And I don't think Apple can do that anymore.

Lex Fridman (57:09.600)

I mean, they lost that.

Tim Urban (57:10.440)

That one brain, his ability to do that was made

Lex Fridman (57:13.360)

that in a totally different company,

Tim Urban (57:14.800)

even though there's tens of thousands of people there.

Lex Fridman (57:17.280)

He said, he didn't say, and I'm giving a lot of credit

Tim Urban (57:20.200)

to Steve Jobs, but of course it was a team at Apple

Lex Fridman (57:23.160)

who said they didn't look at the flip phones and say,

Tim Urban (57:26.320)

okay, well kind of, you know, let's make a keyboard

Lex Fridman (57:28.320)

that's like clicky and, you know, really cool Apple.

Lex Fridman (57:30.040)

A keyboard, they said, what should a mobile device be?

Lex Fridman (57:32.440)

You know, what the axioms, what are the axioms here?

Lex Fridman (57:35.640)

And none of them involved a keyboard necessarily.

Lex Fridman (57:37.480)

And by the time they piece it up, there was no keyboards.

Tim Urban (57:39.140)

It didn't make sense.

Lex Fridman (57:40.320)

Everyone suddenly is going, wait, what, what are they doing?

Lex Fridman (57:42.000)

What are they?

Lex Fridman (57:42.840)

And now every phone looks like the iPhone.

Tim Urban (57:43.720)

I mean, that's, that's how it goes.

Lex Fridman (57:46.720)

You tweeted, what's something you've changed your mind about?

Tim Urban (57:51.360)

That's the question you've tweeted.

Lex Fridman (57:53.520)

Elon replied, brain transplants,

Tim Urban (57:55.920)

Sam Harris responded, nuclear power.

Lex Fridman (57:58.020)

There's a bunch of people with cool responses there.

Tim Urban (58:01.440)

In general, what are your thoughts

Lex Fridman (58:02.600)

about some of the responses

Lex Fridman (58:03.800)

and what have you changed your mind about big or small,

Lex Fridman (58:07.480)

perhaps in doing the research for some of your writing?

Lex Fridman (58:10.560)

So I'm writing right now, just finishing a book

Lex Fridman (58:13.800)

on kind of why our society is such a shit place at the moment

Tim Urban (58:19.060)

just polarized.

Lex Fridman (58:20.160)

And, you know, we have all these gifts

Tim Urban (58:21.840)

like we're talking about, just the supermarket, you know,

Lex Fridman (58:23.700)

we have these, it's exploding technology.

Tim Urban (58:25.660)

Fewer and fewer people are in poverty.

Lex Fridman (58:28.040)

You know, it's, Louis CK, you know, likes to say,

Lex Fridman (58:30.480)

you know, everything's amazing and no one's happy, right?

Lex Fridman (58:32.480)

But it's really extreme moment right now

Tim Urban (58:35.000)

where it's like, hate is on the rise,

Lex Fridman (58:37.400)

like crazy things, right?

Tim Urban (58:38.760)

And.

Lex Fridman (58:39.760)

If I could interrupt briefly,

Tim Urban (58:41.120)

you did tweet that you just wrote the last word.

Lex Fridman (58:43.400)

I sure did.

Lex Fridman (58:44.360)

And then there's some hilarious asshole who said,

Lex Fridman (58:46.980)

now you just have to work on all the ones in the middle.

Tim Urban (58:49.880)

Yeah, I've heard that.

Lex Fridman (58:50.720)

I mean, when you, when you earned a reputation

Tim Urban (58:53.000)

as a tried and true procrastinator,

Lex Fridman (58:55.840)

you're just gonna get shit forever.

Lex Fridman (58:57.840)

And that's fine.

Lex Fridman (58:58.680)

I accept my fate there.

Lex Fridman (58:59.680)

So do you mind sharing a little bit more

Lex Fridman (59:02.080)

about the details of what you're writing?

Lex Fridman (59:03.760)

So you're, how do you approach this question

Lex Fridman (59:07.880)

about the state of society?

Tim Urban (59:09.280)

I wanted to figure out what was going on

Lex Fridman (59:11.800)

because what I noticed was a bad trend.

Tim Urban (59:15.080)

It's not that, you know, things are bad.

Lex Fridman (59:16.440)

It's that things are getting worse in certain ways.

Tim Urban (59:19.400)

Not in every way.

Lex Fridman (59:20.240)

Look at Max Roser's stuff, you know,

Tim Urban (59:23.160)

he comes up with all these amazing graphs.

Lex Fridman (59:24.920)

This is what's weird is that things are getting better

Tim Urban (59:27.400)

in almost every important metric you can think of,

Lex Fridman (59:31.640)

except the amount of people who hate other people

Tim Urban (59:35.280)

in their own country.

Lex Fridman (59:36.680)

And the amount of people that hate their own country,

Tim Urban (59:40.040)

the amount of Americans that hate America's on the rise,

Lex Fridman (59:42.640)

right, the amount of Americans

Tim Urban (59:44.120)

that hate other Americans is on the rise.

Lex Fridman (59:47.200)

The amount of Americans that hate the president

Tim Urban (59:49.160)

is on the rise, all these things,

Lex Fridman (59:50.200)

like on a very steep rise.

Lex Fridman (59:52.800)

So what the hell?

Lex Fridman (59:53.720)

What's going on?

Tim Urban (59:54.560)

Like there's something causing that.

Lex Fridman (59:56.160)

It's not that, you know, a bunch of new people were born

Tim Urban (59:58.320)

who were just dicks.

Lex Fridman (59:59.280)

It's that something is going on.

Tim Urban: Elon Musk, Neuralink, AI, Aliens, and the Future of Humanity

蒂姆·厄本谈马斯克、Neuralink、AI与人类未来