Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk

Lex Fridman (01:21.580)

it really depends.

Liv Boeree (01:22.780)

If you and I sat and played 10 hands right now,

Lex Fridman (01:26.120)

I might only win 52% of the time, 53% maybe.

Lex Fridman (01:30.260)

But if we played 10,000 hands,

Lex Fridman (01:31.740)

then I'll probably win like over 98, 99% of the time.

Lex Fridman (01:35.180)

So it's a question of sample sizes.

Lex Fridman (01:38.180)

And what are you figuring out over time?

Liv Boeree (01:40.120)

The betting strategy that this individual does

Lex Fridman (01:42.260)

or literally it doesn't matter

Lex Fridman (01:43.740)

against any individual over time?

Lex Fridman (01:45.920)

Against any individual over time, the better player

Liv Boeree (01:47.980)

because they're making better decisions.

Lex Fridman (01:49.520)

So what does that mean to make a better decision?

Liv Boeree (01:51.260)

Well, to get into the realness of Gritty already,

Lex Fridman (01:55.340)

basically poker is a game of math.

Liv Boeree (01:58.780)

There are these strategies familiar

Lex Fridman (02:00.380)

with like Nash Equilibria, right?

Lex Fridman (02:02.580)

So there are these game theory optimal strategies

Lex Fridman (02:06.340)

that you can adopt.

Lex Fridman (02:08.340)

And the closer you play to them,

Lex Fridman (02:10.380)

the less exploitable you are.

Lex Fridman (02:12.420)

So because I've studied the game a bunch,

Lex Fridman (02:15.980)

although admittedly not for a few years,

Lex Fridman (02:17.300)

but back when I was playing all the time,

Lex Fridman (02:20.060)

I would study these game theory optimal solutions

Lex Fridman (02:23.060)

and try and then adopt those strategies

Lex Fridman (02:24.940)

when I go and play.

Lex Fridman (02:25.780)

So I'd play against you and I would do that.

Lex Fridman (02:27.760)

And because the objective,

Liv Boeree (02:31.860)

when you're playing game theory optimal,

Lex Fridman (02:33.260)

it's actually, it's a loss minimization thing

Liv Boeree (02:36.020)

that you're trying to do.

Lex Fridman (02:37.380)

Your best bet is to try and play a sort of similar style.

Liv Boeree (02:42.760)

You also need to try and adopt this loss minimization.

Lex Fridman (02:46.220)

But because I've been playing much longer than you,

Liv Boeree (02:48.140)

I'll be better at that.

Lex Fridman (02:49.420)

So first of all, you're not taking advantage

Liv Boeree (02:51.940)

of my mistakes.

Lex Fridman (02:53.180)

But then on top of that,

Liv Boeree (02:55.020)

I'll be better at recognizing

Lex Fridman (02:56.940)

when you are playing suboptimally

Lex Fridman (02:59.540)

and then deviating from this game theory optimal strategy

Lex Fridman (03:02.220)

to exploit your bad plays.

Lex Fridman (03:05.140)

Can you define game theory and Nash equilibria?

Lex Fridman (03:08.700)

Can we try to sneak up to it in a bunch of ways?

Liv Boeree (03:10.980)

Like what's a game theory framework of analyzing poker,

Lex Fridman (03:14.380)

analyzing any kind of situation?

Lex Fridman (03:16.340)

So game theory is just basically the study of decisions

Lex Fridman (03:21.340)

within a competitive situation.

Liv Boeree (03:24.540)

I mean, it's technically a branch of economics,

Lex Fridman (03:26.780)

but it also applies to like wider decision theory.

Lex Fridman (03:30.380)

And usually when you see it,

Lex Fridman (03:35.380)

it's these like little payoff matrices and so on.

Liv Boeree (03:37.900)

That's how it's depicted.

Lex Fridman (03:38.780)

But it's essentially just like study of strategies

Liv Boeree (03:41.140)

under different competitive situations.

Lex Fridman (03:42.940)

And as it happens, certain games,

Liv Boeree (03:46.360)

in fact, many, many games have these things

Lex Fridman (03:48.820)

called Nash equilibria.

Lex Fridman (03:50.460)

And what that means is when you're in a Nash equilibrium,

Lex Fridman (03:52.420)

basically it is not,

Liv Boeree (03:55.460)

there is no strategy that you can take

Lex Fridman (03:59.700)

that would be more beneficial

Liv Boeree (04:01.180)

than the one you're currently taking,

Lex Fridman (04:02.780)

assuming your opponent is also doing the same thing.

Lex Fridman (04:05.700)

So it'd be a bad idea,

Lex Fridman (04:06.740)

if we're both playing in a game theory optimal strategy,

Liv Boeree (04:10.660)

if either of us deviate from that,

Lex Fridman (04:12.140)

now we're putting ourselves at a disadvantage.

Liv Boeree (04:16.620)

Rock, paper, scissors

Lex Fridman (04:17.460)

is actually a really great example of this.

Liv Boeree (04:18.840)

Like if we were to start playing rock, paper, scissors,

Lex Fridman (04:22.380)

you know, you know nothing about me

Lex Fridman (04:23.740)

and we're gonna play for all our money,

Lex Fridman (04:26.180)

let's play 10 rounds of it.

Lex Fridman (04:27.820)

What would your sort of optimal strategy be?

Lex Fridman (04:30.220)

Do you think, what would you do?

Liv Boeree (04:33.640)

Let's see.

Lex Fridman (04:35.180)

I would probably try to be as random as possible.

Liv Boeree (04:42.580)

Exactly.

Lex Fridman (04:43.500)

You wanna, because you don't know anything about me,

Liv Boeree (04:46.000)

you don't want to give anything away about yourself.

Lex Fridman (04:48.100)

So ideally you'd have like a little dice

Liv Boeree (04:49.540)

or somewhat, you know, perfect randomizer

Lex Fridman (04:52.560)

that makes you randomize 33% of the time

Liv Boeree (04:54.500)

each of the three different things.

Lex Fridman (04:56.060)

And in response to that,

Liv Boeree (04:58.140)

well, actually I can kind of do anything,

Lex Fridman (04:59.620)

but I would probably just randomize back too,

Lex Fridman (05:01.380)

but actually it wouldn't matter

Lex Fridman (05:02.400)

because I know that you're playing randomly.

Lex Fridman (05:05.140)

So that would be us in a Nash equilibrium

Lex Fridman (05:07.620)

where we're both playing this like unexploitable strategy.

Liv Boeree (05:10.620)

However, if after a while you then notice

Lex Fridman (05:13.020)

that I'm playing rock a little bit more often than I should.

Liv Boeree (05:16.380)

Yeah, you're the kind of person that would do that,

Lex Fridman (05:18.140)

wouldn't you?

Liv Boeree (05:18.980)

Sure.

Lex Fridman (05:19.800)

Yes, yes, yes.

Liv Boeree (05:20.640)

I'm more of a scissors girl, but anyway.

Lex Fridman (05:21.460)

You are?

Liv Boeree (05:22.500)

No, I'm a, as I said, randomizer.

Lex Fridman (05:25.580)

So you notice I'm throwing rock too much

Liv Boeree (05:27.140)

or something like that.

Lex Fridman (05:28.140)

Now you'd be making a mistake

Liv Boeree (05:29.300)

by continuing playing this game theory optimal strategy,

Lex Fridman (05:32.180)

well, the previous one, because you are now,

Liv Boeree (05:36.660)

I'm making a mistake and you're not deviating

Lex Fridman (05:39.060)

and exploiting my mistake.

Lex Fridman (05:41.300)

So you'd want to start throwing paper a bit more often

Lex Fridman (05:43.800)

in whatever you figure is the right sort of percentage

Liv Boeree (05:45.940)

of the time that I'm throwing rock too often.

Lex Fridman (05:48.060)

So that's basically an example of where,

Lex Fridman (05:51.460)

what game theory optimal strategy is

Lex Fridman (05:53.260)

in terms of loss minimization,

Lex Fridman (05:54.660)

but it's not always the maximally profitable thing

Lex Fridman (05:58.020)

if your opponent is doing stupid stuff,

Liv Boeree (06:00.140)

which in that example.

Lex Fridman (06:02.560)

So that's kind of then how it works in poker,

Lex Fridman (06:04.500)

but it's a lot more complex.

Lex Fridman (06:07.380)

And the way poker players typically,

Liv Boeree (06:10.620)

nowadays they study, the games change so much.

Lex Fridman (06:12.900)

And I think we should talk about how it sort of evolved,

Lex Fridman (06:15.420)

but nowadays like the top pros

Lex Fridman (06:17.780)

basically spend all their time in between sessions

Liv Boeree (06:20.820)

running these simulators using like software

Lex Fridman (06:24.220)

where they do basically Monte Carlo simulations,

Liv Boeree (06:26.140)

sort of doing billions of fictitious self play hands.

Lex Fridman (06:31.140)

You input a fictitious hand scenario,

Liv Boeree (06:34.020)

like, oh, what do I do with Jack nine suited

Lex Fridman (06:36.060)

on a King 10 four to two spades board

Lex Fridman (06:41.980)

and against this bet size.

Lex Fridman (06:43.940)

So you'd input that press play,

Liv Boeree (06:45.780)

it'll run its billions of fake hands

Lex Fridman (06:49.340)

and then it will converge upon

Lex Fridman (06:50.340)

what the game theory optimal strategies are.

Lex Fridman (06:53.460)

And then you wanna try and memorize what these are.

Liv Boeree (06:55.420)

Basically they're like ratios of how often,

Lex Fridman (06:57.480)

what types of hands you want to bluff

Lex Fridman (06:59.900)

and what percentage of the time.

Lex Fridman (07:01.300)

So then there's this additional layer

Liv Boeree (07:02.780)

of inbuilt randomization built in.

Lex Fridman (07:04.460)

Yeah, those kinds of simulations incorporate

Liv Boeree (07:06.420)

all the betting strategies and everything else like that.

Lex Fridman (07:09.460)

So as opposed to some kind of very crude mathematical model

Liv Boeree (07:12.340)

of what's the probability you win

Lex Fridman (07:13.860)

just based on the quality of the card,

Liv Boeree (07:16.380)

it's including everything else too.

Lex Fridman (07:18.980)

The game theory of it.

Liv Boeree (07:20.220)

Yes, yeah, essentially.

Lex Fridman (07:21.980)

And what's interesting is that nowadays,

Liv Boeree (07:23.780)

if you want to be a top pro and you go and play

Lex Fridman (07:25.620)

in these really like the super high stakes tournaments

Liv Boeree (07:27.540)

or tough cash games, if you don't know this stuff,

Lex Fridman (07:30.700)

you're gonna get eaten alive in the long run.

Lex Fridman (07:33.260)

But of course you could get lucky over the short run

Lex Fridman (07:35.160)

and that's where this like luck factor comes in

Liv Boeree (07:36.860)

because luck is both a blessing and a curse.

Lex Fridman (07:40.400)

If luck didn't, if there wasn't this random element

Lex Fridman (07:42.580)

and there wasn't the ability for worse players

Lex Fridman (07:45.260)

to win sometimes, then poker would fall apart.

Liv Boeree (07:48.220)

You know, the same reason people don't play chess

Lex Fridman (07:50.980)

professionally for money against,

Liv Boeree (07:53.380)

you don't see people going and hustling chess

Lex Fridman (07:55.500)

like not knowing, trying to make a living from it

Liv Boeree (07:57.860)

because you know there's very little luck in chess,

Lex Fridman (08:00.140)

but there's quite a lot of luck in poker.

Lex Fridman (08:01.420)

Have you seen Beautiful Mind, that movie?

Lex Fridman (08:03.940)

Years ago.

Liv Boeree (08:04.780)

Well, what do you think about the game theoretic formulation

Lex Fridman (08:07.220)

of what is it, the hot blonde at the bar?

Lex Fridman (08:09.980)

Do you remember?

Lex Fridman (08:10.820)

Oh, yeah.

Lex Fridman (08:11.660)

What they illustrated is they're trying to pick up a girl

Lex Fridman (08:14.860)

at a bar and there's multiple girls.

Liv Boeree (08:16.460)

They're like friend, it's like a friend group

Lex Fridman (08:18.140)

and you're trying to approach,

Liv Boeree (08:20.100)

I don't remember the details, but I remember.

Lex Fridman (08:21.980)

Don't you like then speak to her friends first

Liv Boeree (08:24.340)

or something like that, feign disinterest.

Lex Fridman (08:25.700)

I mean, it's classic pickup artist stuff, right?

Liv Boeree (08:27.420)

You wanna.

Lex Fridman (08:28.260)

And they were trying to correlate that somehow,

Liv Boeree (08:30.780)

that being an optimal strategy game theoretically.

Lex Fridman (08:35.360)

Why?

Liv Boeree (08:36.740)

What, what, like, I don't think, I remember.

Lex Fridman (08:38.940)

I can't imagine that there is,

Liv Boeree (08:39.780)

I mean, there's probably an optimal strategy.

Lex Fridman (08:41.940)

Is it, does that mean that there's an actual Nash equilibrium

Lex Fridman (08:45.020)

of like picking up girls?

Lex Fridman (08:46.660)

Do you know the marriage problem?

Liv Boeree (08:49.020)

It's optimal stopping.

Lex Fridman (08:50.940)

Yes.

Lex Fridman (08:51.780)

So where it's an optimal dating strategy

Lex Fridman (08:54.180)

where you, do you remember what it is?

Liv Boeree (08:56.580)

Yeah, I think it's like something like,

Lex Fridman (08:57.580)

you know you've got like a set of a hundred people

Liv Boeree (08:59.920)

you're gonna look through and after,

Lex Fridman (09:01.900)

how many do you, now after that,

Liv Boeree (09:05.620)

after going on this many dates out of a hundred,

Lex Fridman (09:08.020)

at what point do you then go, okay, the next best person I see,

Lex Fridman (09:10.780)

is that the right one?

Lex Fridman (09:11.620)

And I think it's like something like 37%.

Liv Boeree (09:14.700)

Uh, it's one over E, whatever that is.

Lex Fridman (09:17.740)

Right, which I think is 37%.

Liv Boeree (09:19.260)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (09:21.260)

We're gonna fact check that.

Liv Boeree (09:24.860)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (09:25.700)

So, but it's funny under those strict constraints,

Liv Boeree (09:28.420)

then yes, after that many people,

Lex Fridman (09:30.660)

as long as you have a fixed size pool,

Liv Boeree (09:32.900)

then you just pick the next person

Lex Fridman (09:36.460)

that is better than anyone you've seen before.

Liv Boeree (09:38.460)

Anyone else you've seen, yeah.

Lex Fridman (09:40.340)

Have you tried this?

Lex Fridman (09:41.780)

Have you incorporated it?

Lex Fridman (09:42.620)

I'm not one of those people.

Lex Fridman (09:44.660)

And we're gonna discuss this.

Lex Fridman (09:45.820)

I, and, what do you mean, those people?

Liv Boeree (09:49.820)

I try not to optimize stuff.

Lex Fridman (09:52.560)

I try to listen to the heart.

Liv Boeree (09:55.300)

I don't think, I like,

Lex Fridman (09:59.780)

my mind immediately is attracted to optimizing everything.

Liv Boeree (10:04.300)

Optimizing everything.

Lex Fridman (10:06.220)

And I think that if you really give in

Liv Boeree (10:09.900)

to that kind of addiction,

Lex Fridman (10:11.060)

that you lose the joy of the small things,

Liv Boeree (10:14.880)

the minutiae of life, I think.

Lex Fridman (10:17.180)

I don't know.

Liv Boeree (10:18.020)

I'm concerned about the addictive nature

Lex Fridman (10:19.780)

of my personality in that regard.

Liv Boeree (10:21.600)

In some ways,

Lex Fridman (10:24.760)

while I think the, on average,

Liv Boeree (10:26.520)

people under try and quantify things,

Lex Fridman (10:30.140)

or try, under optimize.

Liv Boeree (10:32.500)

There are some people who, you know,

Lex Fridman (10:34.100)

with all these things, it's a balancing act.

Liv Boeree (10:37.140)

I've been on dating apps, but I've never used them.

Lex Fridman (10:40.180)

I'm sure they have data on this,

Liv Boeree (10:42.060)

because they probably have

Lex Fridman (10:43.060)

the optimal stopping control problem.

Liv Boeree (10:45.260)

Because there aren't a lot of people that use social,

Lex Fridman (10:47.380)

like dating apps, are on there for a long time.

Lex Fridman (10:51.020)

So the interesting aspect is like, all right,

Lex Fridman (10:56.300)

how long before you stop looking

Liv Boeree (10:58.740)

before it actually starts affecting your mind negatively,

Lex Fridman (11:01.720)

such that you see dating as a kind of,

Liv Boeree (11:07.380)

A game.

Lex Fridman (11:08.220)

A kind of game versus an actual process

Liv Boeree (11:12.780)

of finding somebody that's going to make you happy

Lex Fridman (11:14.420)

for the rest of your life.

Liv Boeree (11:15.780)

That's really interesting.

Lex Fridman (11:17.340)

They have the data.

Liv Boeree (11:18.180)

I wish they would be able to release that data.

Lex Fridman (11:20.420)

And I do want to hop to it.

Lex Fridman (11:21.260)

It's OkCupid, right?

Lex Fridman (11:22.220)

I think they ran a huge, huge study on all of that.

Liv Boeree (11:25.320)

Yeah, they're more data driven, I think, OkCupid folks are.

Lex Fridman (11:28.060)

I think there's a lot of opportunity for dating apps,

Liv Boeree (11:30.220)

in general, even bigger than dating apps,

Lex Fridman (11:32.340)

people connecting on the internet.

Liv Boeree (11:35.020)

I just hope they're more data driven.

Lex Fridman (11:37.580)

And it doesn't seem that way.

Liv Boeree (11:40.340)

I think like, I've always thought that

Lex Fridman (11:44.780)

Goodreads should be a dating app.

Liv Boeree (11:47.900)

Like the.

Lex Fridman (11:48.740)

I've never used it.

Lex Fridman (11:49.580)

After what?

Lex Fridman (11:50.400)

Goodreads is just lists like books that you've read.

Lex Fridman (11:55.140)

And allows you to comment on the books you read

Lex Fridman (11:57.360)

and what books you're currently reading.

Lex Fridman (11:58.940)

But it's a giant social networks of people reading books.

Lex Fridman (12:01.340)

And that seems to be a much better database

Liv Boeree (12:03.380)

of like interests.

Lex Fridman (12:04.620)

Of course it constrains you to the books you're reading,

Lex Fridman (12:06.580)

but like that really reveals so much more about the person.

Lex Fridman (12:10.220)

Allows you to discover shared interests

Liv Boeree (12:12.460)

because books are a kind of window

Lex Fridman (12:13.940)

into the way you see the world.

Liv Boeree (12:16.020)

Also like the kind of places,

Lex Fridman (12:19.220)

people you're curious about,

Liv Boeree (12:20.340)

the kind of ideas you're curious about.

Lex Fridman (12:21.700)

Are you a romantic or are you cold calculating rationalist?

Lex Fridman (12:24.860)

Are you into Ayn Rand or are you into Bernie Sanders?

Lex Fridman (12:28.260)

Are you into whatever?

Lex Fridman (12:29.940)

And I feel like that reveals so much more

Lex Fridman (12:31.980)

than like a person trying to look hot

Liv Boeree (12:35.220)

from a certain angle in a Tinder profile.

Lex Fridman (12:37.100)

Well, and it'd also be a really great filter

Liv Boeree (12:38.940)

in the first place for people.

Lex Fridman (12:40.340)

It's less people who read books

Lex Fridman (12:41.940)

and are willing to go and rate them

Lex Fridman (12:44.700)

and give feedback on them and so on.

Lex Fridman (12:47.020)

So that's already a really strong filter.

Lex Fridman (12:48.820)

Probably the type of people you'd be looking for.

Liv Boeree (12:50.600)

Well, at least be able to fake reading books.

Lex Fridman (12:52.380)

I mean, the thing about books,

Liv Boeree (12:53.540)

you don't really need to read it.

Lex Fridman (12:54.500)

You can just look at the click counts.

Liv Boeree (12:55.860)

Yeah, game the dating app by feigning intellectualism.

Lex Fridman (12:59.060)

Can I admit something very horrible about myself?

Liv Boeree (13:02.340)

Go on.

Lex Fridman (13:03.180)

The things that, you know,

Liv Boeree (13:04.300)

I don't have many things in my closet,

Lex Fridman (13:05.700)

but this is one of them.

Liv Boeree (13:07.980)

I've never actually read Shakespeare.

Lex Fridman (13:10.700)

I've only read Cliff Notes

Lex Fridman (13:12.340)

and I got a five in the AP English exam.

Lex Fridman (13:15.020)

Wow.

Lex Fridman (13:15.860)

And I...

Lex Fridman (13:16.700)

Which book?

Lex Fridman (13:18.020)

The which books have I read?

Lex Fridman (13:19.660)

Oh yeah, which was the exam on which book?

Liv Boeree (13:21.500)

Oh no, they include a lot of them.

Lex Fridman (13:23.180)

Oh.

Lex Fridman (13:24.260)

But Hamlet, I don't even know

Lex Fridman (13:27.140)

if you read Romeo and Juliet, Macbeth.

Liv Boeree (13:30.060)

I don't remember, but I don't understand it.

Lex Fridman (13:32.660)

It's like really cryptic.

Liv Boeree (13:34.060)

It's hard.

Lex Fridman (13:34.900)

It's really, I don't, and it's not that pleasant to read.

Liv Boeree (13:37.980)

It's like ancient speak.

Lex Fridman (13:39.180)

I don't understand it.

Liv Boeree (13:40.300)

Anyway, maybe I was too dumb.

Lex Fridman (13:41.780)

I'm still too dumb, but I did get...

Liv Boeree (13:44.780)

You got a five, which is...

Lex Fridman (13:45.820)

Yeah, yeah.

Liv Boeree (13:46.660)

I don't know how the US grading system...

Lex Fridman (13:47.980)

Oh no, so AP English is a,

Liv Boeree (13:50.380)

there's kind of this advanced versions of courses

Lex Fridman (13:53.060)

in high school, and you take a test

Liv Boeree (13:54.900)

that is like a broad test for that subject

Lex Fridman (13:57.940)

and includes a lot.

Liv Boeree (13:58.900)

It wasn't obviously just Shakespeare.

Lex Fridman (14:00.580)

I think a lot of it was also writing, written.

Liv Boeree (14:04.900)

You have like AP Physics, AP Computer Science,

Lex Fridman (14:07.140)

AP Biology, AP Chemistry, and then AP English

Liv Boeree (14:11.140)

or AP Literature, I forget what it was.

Lex Fridman (14:13.460)

But I think Shakespeare was a part of that.

Lex Fridman (14:16.020)

But I...

Lex Fridman (14:16.860)

And the point is you gamified it?

Liv Boeree (14:19.140)

Gamified.

Lex Fridman (14:19.980)

Well, in entirety, I was into getting As.

Liv Boeree (14:22.580)

I saw it as a game.

Lex Fridman (14:24.180)

I don't think any...

Liv Boeree (14:27.060)

I don't think all of the learning I've done

Lex Fridman (14:30.340)

has been outside of school.

Liv Boeree (14:33.940)

The deepest learning I've done has been outside of school

Lex Fridman (14:36.220)

with a few exceptions, especially in grad school,

Liv Boeree (14:38.380)

like deep computer science courses.

Lex Fridman (14:40.420)

But that was still outside of school

Liv Boeree (14:41.780)

because it was outside of getting...

Lex Fridman (14:43.180)

Sorry.

Liv Boeree (14:44.020)

It was outside of getting the A for the course.

Lex Fridman (14:46.180)

The best stuff I've ever done is when you read the chapter

Lex Fridman (14:49.620)

and you do many of the problems at the end of the chapter,

Lex Fridman (14:52.300)

which is usually not what's required for the course,

Liv Boeree (14:54.900)

like the hardest stuff.

Lex Fridman (14:56.140)

In fact, textbooks are freaking incredible.

Liv Boeree (14:58.780)

If you go back now and you look at like biology textbook

Lex Fridman (15:02.220)

or any of the computer science textbooks

Liv Boeree (15:06.060)

on algorithms and data structures,

Lex Fridman (15:07.740)

those things are incredibly...

Liv Boeree (15:09.500)

They have the best summary of a subject,

Lex Fridman (15:11.940)

plus they have practice problems of increasing difficulty

Liv Boeree (15:15.300)

that allows you to truly master the basic,

Lex Fridman (15:17.700)

like the fundamental ideas behind that.

Liv Boeree (15:19.900)

I got through my entire physics degree with one textbook

Lex Fridman (15:24.380)

that was just this really comprehensive one

Liv Boeree (15:26.260)

that they told us at the beginning of the first year,

Lex Fridman (15:28.620)

buy this, but you're gonna have to buy 15 other books

Liv Boeree (15:31.660)

for all your supplementary courses.

Lex Fridman (15:33.340)

And I was like, every time I was just checked

Liv Boeree (15:35.500)

to see whether this book covered it and it did.

Lex Fridman (15:38.020)

And I think I only bought like two or three extra

Lex Fridman (15:39.820)

and thank God, cause they're super expensive textbooks.

Lex Fridman (15:41.900)

It's a whole racket they've got going on.

Liv Boeree (15:44.300)

Yeah, they are.

Lex Fridman (15:45.140)

They could just...

Liv Boeree (15:46.220)

You get the right one, it's just like a manual for...

Lex Fridman (15:49.500)

But what's interesting though,

Liv Boeree (15:51.380)

is this is the tyranny of having exams and metrics.

Lex Fridman (15:56.780)

The tyranny of exams and metrics, yes.

Liv Boeree (15:58.660)

I loved them because I'm very competitive

Lex Fridman (16:00.980)

and I liked finding ways to gamify things

Lex Fridman (16:04.020)

and then like sort of dust off my shoulders afterwards

Lex Fridman (16:06.380)

when I get a good grade

Liv Boeree (16:07.420)

or be annoyed at myself when I didn't.

Lex Fridman (16:09.620)

But yeah, you're absolutely right.

Lex Fridman (16:10.860)

And that the actual...

Lex Fridman (16:12.820)

How much of that physics knowledge I've retained,

Liv Boeree (16:15.700)

like I've learned how to cram and study

Lex Fridman (16:19.660)

and please an examiner,

Lex Fridman (16:21.340)

but did that give me the deep lasting knowledge

Lex Fridman (16:23.980)

that I needed?

Liv Boeree (16:24.820)

I mean, yes and no,

Lex Fridman (16:27.020)

but really like nothing makes you learn a topic better

Liv Boeree (16:30.980)

than when you actually then have to teach it yourself.

Lex Fridman (16:34.260)

Like I'm trying to wrap my teeth

Liv Boeree (16:35.860)

around this like game theory Moloch stuff right now.

Lex Fridman (16:38.180)

And there's no exam at the end of it that I can gamify.

Liv Boeree (16:43.060)

There's no way to gamify

Lex Fridman (16:43.980)

and sort of like shortcut my way through it.

Liv Boeree (16:45.380)

I have to understand it so deeply

Lex Fridman (16:47.260)

from like deep foundational levels

Liv Boeree (16:49.660)

to then to build upon it

Lex Fridman (16:50.700)

and then try and explain it to other people.

Lex Fridman (16:52.340)

And like, you're about to go and do some lectures, right?

Lex Fridman (16:54.460)

You can't sort of just like,

Liv Boeree (16:58.620)

you presumably can't rely on the knowledge

Lex Fridman (17:00.660)

that you got through when you were studying for an exam

Liv Boeree (17:03.460)

to reteach that.

Lex Fridman (17:04.860)

Yeah, and especially high level lectures,

Liv Boeree (17:06.860)

especially the kind of stuff you do on YouTube,

Lex Fridman (17:09.420)

you're not just regurgitating material.

Liv Boeree (17:12.780)

You have to think through what is the core idea here.

Lex Fridman (17:17.940)

And when you do the lectures live especially,

Liv Boeree (17:20.780)

you have to, there's no second takes.

Lex Fridman (17:25.020)

That is the luxury you get

Liv Boeree (17:27.100)

if you're recording a video for YouTube

Lex Fridman (17:28.980)

or something like that.

Lex Fridman (17:30.220)

But it definitely is a luxury you shouldn't lean on.

Lex Fridman (17:35.060)

I've gotten to interact with a few YouTubers

Liv Boeree (17:37.340)

that lean on that too much.

Lex Fridman (17:39.300)

And you realize, oh, you've gamified this system

Liv Boeree (17:43.380)

because you're not really thinking deeply about stuff.

Lex Fridman (17:46.740)

You're through the edit,

Liv Boeree (17:48.420)

both written and spoken,

Lex Fridman (17:52.220)

you're crafting an amazing video,

Lex Fridman (17:53.900)

but you yourself as a human being

Lex Fridman (17:55.460)

have not really deeply understood it.

Lex Fridman (17:57.620)

So live teaching or at least recording video

Lex Fridman (18:00.780)

with very few takes is a different beast.

Lex Fridman (18:04.700)

And I think it's the most honest way of doing it,

Lex Fridman (18:07.300)

like as few takes as possible.

Liv Boeree (18:09.420)

That's why I'm nervous about this.

Lex Fridman (18:10.780)

Don't go back and be like, ah, let's do that.

Liv Boeree (18:14.020)

Don't fuck this up, Liv.

Lex Fridman (18:17.220)

The tyranny of exams.

Liv Boeree (18:18.500)

I do think people talk about high school and college

Lex Fridman (18:24.220)

as a time to do drugs and drink and have fun

Lex Fridman (18:27.220)

and all this kind of stuff.

Lex Fridman (18:28.340)

But looking back, of course I did a lot of those things.

Liv Boeree (18:33.340)

Yes, no, yes, but it's also a time

Lex Fridman (18:39.020)

when you get to read textbooks or read books

Liv Boeree (18:43.620)

or learn with all the time in the world.

Lex Fridman (18:48.740)

You don't have these responsibilities of laundry

Lex Fridman (18:54.860)

and having to sort of pay for mortgage,

Lex Fridman (18:59.860)

all that kind of stuff, pay taxes, all this kind of stuff.

Liv Boeree (19:03.020)

In most cases, there's just so much time in the day

Lex Fridman (19:06.500)

for learning and you don't realize it at the time

Liv Boeree (19:09.420)

because at the time it seems like a chore,

Lex Fridman (19:11.100)

like why the hell does there's so much homework?

Lex Fridman (19:14.660)

But you never get a chance to do this kind of learning,

Lex Fridman (19:17.220)

this kind of homework ever again in life,

Liv Boeree (19:20.300)

unless later in life you really make a big effort out of it.

Lex Fridman (19:23.860)

Like basically your knowledge gets solidified.

Liv Boeree (19:26.780)

You don't get to have fun and learn.

Lex Fridman (19:28.380)

Learning is really fulfilling and really fun

Liv Boeree (19:32.740)

if you're that kind of person.

Lex Fridman (19:33.700)

Like some people like, you know,

Liv Boeree (19:37.220)

like knowledge is not something that they think is fun.

Lex Fridman (19:39.940)

But if that's the kind of thing that you think is fun,

Liv Boeree (19:43.020)

that's the time to have fun and do the drugs and drink

Lex Fridman (19:45.620)

and all that kind of stuff.

Lex Fridman (19:46.460)

But the learning, just going back to those textbooks,

Lex Fridman (19:50.780)

the hours spent with the textbooks

Liv Boeree (19:52.460)

is really, really rewarding.

Lex Fridman (19:54.420)

Do people even use textbooks anymore?

Lex Fridman (19:56.020)

Yeah. Do you think?

Lex Fridman (19:56.940)

Kids these days with their TikTok and their...

Liv Boeree (1:00:04.540)

Isn't that just like a humbling, practical realization

Lex Fridman (1:00:09.540)

that we don't know how reality works?

Liv Boeree (1:00:12.540)

Isn't that just a reminder to yourself that you're

Lex Fridman (1:00:15.620)

like, I don't know how reality works, isn't that just

Lex Fridman (1:00:19.340)

a reminder to yourself?

Lex Fridman (1:00:20.180)

Yeah, no, it's a reminder of epistemic humility

Liv Boeree (1:00:22.500)

because I fell too hard, you know, same as people,

Lex Fridman (1:00:25.460)

like I think, you know, many people who are just like,

Liv Boeree (1:00:27.580)

my religion is the way, this is the correct way,

Lex Fridman (1:00:29.380)

this is the work, this is the law, you are immoral

Liv Boeree (1:00:32.260)

if you don't follow this, blah, blah, blah.

Lex Fridman (1:00:33.620)

I think they are lacking epistemic humility.

Liv Boeree (1:00:36.060)

They're a little too much hubris there.

Lex Fridman (1:00:38.100)

But similarly, I think that sort of the Richard Dawkins

Liv Boeree (1:00:40.380)

realism is too rigid as well and doesn't, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:00:48.580)

there's a way to try and navigate these questions

Liv Boeree (1:00:51.020)

which still honors the scientific method,

Lex Fridman (1:00:52.780)

which I still think is our best sort of realm

Liv Boeree (1:00:54.820)

of like reasonable inquiry, you know, a method of inquiry.

Lex Fridman (1:00:58.940)

So an example, two kind of notable examples

Liv Boeree (1:01:03.340)

that like really rattled my cage.

Lex Fridman (1:01:06.660)

The first one was actually in 2010 early on

Liv Boeree (1:01:09.340)

in quite early on in my poker career.

Lex Fridman (1:01:13.460)

And I, remember the Icelandic volcano that erupted

Liv Boeree (1:01:19.540)

that like shut down kind of all Atlantic airspace.

Lex Fridman (1:01:22.700)

And it meant I got stuck down in the South of France.

Liv Boeree (1:01:25.260)

I was there for something else.

Lex Fridman (1:01:27.140)

And I couldn't get home and someone said,

Liv Boeree (1:01:29.900)

well, there's a big poker tournament happening in Italy.

Lex Fridman (1:01:31.860)

Maybe, do you wanna go?

Liv Boeree (1:01:32.980)

I was like, all right, sure.

Lex Fridman (1:01:33.820)

Like, let's, you know, got a train across,

Liv Boeree (1:01:35.860)

found a way to get there.

Lex Fridman (1:01:37.860)

And the buy in was 5,000 euros,

Liv Boeree (1:01:39.860)

which was much bigger than my bankroll would normally allow.

Lex Fridman (1:01:42.500)

And so I played a feeder tournament, won my way in

Liv Boeree (1:01:46.620)

kind of like I did with the Monte Carlo big one.

Lex Fridman (1:01:49.820)

So then I won my way, you know,

Liv Boeree (1:01:50.900)

from 500 euros into 5,000 euros to play this thing.

Lex Fridman (1:01:54.180)

And on day one of then the big tournament,

Liv Boeree (1:01:57.980)

which turned out to have,

Lex Fridman (1:01:58.980)

it was the biggest tournament ever held in Europe

Liv Boeree (1:02:00.860)

at the time.

Lex Fridman (1:02:01.700)

It got over like 1,200 people, absolutely huge.

Lex Fridman (1:02:04.540)

And I remember they dimmed the lights for before, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:02:08.380)

the normal shuffle up and deal

Liv Boeree (1:02:10.220)

to tell everyone to start playing.

Lex Fridman (1:02:12.100)

And they played Chemical Brothers, Hey Boy, Hey Girl,

Liv Boeree (1:02:16.100)

which I don't know why it's notable,

Lex Fridman (1:02:17.380)

but it was just like a really,

Liv Boeree (1:02:18.380)

it was a song I always liked.

Lex Fridman (1:02:19.220)

It was like one of these like pump me up songs.

Lex Fridman (1:02:21.220)

And I was sitting there thinking, oh yeah, it's exciting.

Lex Fridman (1:02:22.900)

I'm playing this really big tournament.

Lex Fridman (1:02:24.580)

And out of nowhere, just suddenly this voice in my head,

Lex Fridman (1:02:29.380)

just, and it sounded like my own sort of, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:02:32.220)

when you think in your mind, you hear a voice kind of, right?

Lex Fridman (1:02:34.980)

At least I do.

Lex Fridman (1:02:36.780)

And so it sounded like my own voice and it said,

Lex Fridman (1:02:38.620)

you are going to win this tournament.

Lex Fridman (1:02:41.220)

And it was so powerful that I got this like wave of like,

Lex Fridman (1:02:44.220)

you know, sort of goosebumps down my body.

Lex Fridman (1:02:46.780)

And that I even, I remember looking around being like,

Lex Fridman (1:02:48.780)

did anyone else hear that?

Lex Fridman (1:02:49.820)

And obviously people are in their phones,

Lex Fridman (1:02:51.020)

like no one else heard it.

Lex Fridman (1:02:51.860)

And I was like, okay, six days later,

Lex Fridman (1:02:56.700)

I win the fucking tournament out of 1,200 people.

Lex Fridman (1:02:59.780)

And I don't know how to explain it.

Lex Fridman (1:03:08.780)

Okay, yes, maybe I have that feeling

Liv Boeree (1:03:13.380)

before every time I play.

Lex Fridman (1:03:14.620)

And it's just that I happened to, you know,

Liv Boeree (1:03:16.140)

because I won the tournament, I retroactively remembered it.

Lex Fridman (1:03:18.820)

But that's just.

Liv Boeree (1:03:19.660)

Or the feeling gave you a kind of,

Lex Fridman (1:03:22.300)

now from the film, Helmutian.

Liv Boeree (1:03:24.940)

Well, exactly.

Lex Fridman (1:03:25.780)

Like it gave you a confident, a deep confidence.

Lex Fridman (1:03:28.340)

And it did.

Lex Fridman (1:03:29.180)

It definitely did.

Liv Boeree (1:03:30.020)

Like, I remember then feeling this like sort of,

Lex Fridman (1:03:32.060)

well, although I remember then on day one,

Liv Boeree (1:03:33.980)

I then went and lost half my stack quite early on.

Lex Fridman (1:03:35.900)

And I remember thinking like, oh, well, that was bullshit.

Lex Fridman (1:03:37.700)

You know, what kind of premonition is this?

Lex Fridman (1:03:40.260)

Thinking, oh, I'm out.

Lex Fridman (1:03:41.100)

But you know, I managed to like keep it together

Lex Fridman (1:03:42.940)

and recover and then just went like pretty perfectly

Liv Boeree (1:03:46.060)

from then on.

Lex Fridman (1:03:47.420)

And either way, it definitely instilled me

Liv Boeree (1:03:51.100)

with this confidence.

Lex Fridman (1:03:52.780)

And I don't want to put, I can't put an explanation.

Liv Boeree (1:03:55.820)

Like, you know, was it some, you know, huge extra to extra,

Lex Fridman (1:04:01.460)

you know, supernatural thing driving me?

Liv Boeree (1:04:03.980)

Or was it just my own self confidence in someone

Lex Fridman (1:04:06.540)

that just made me make the right decisions?

Liv Boeree (1:04:07.980)

I don't know.

Lex Fridman (1:04:08.860)

And I don't, I'm not going to put a frame on it.

Lex Fridman (1:04:10.660)

And I think.

Lex Fridman (1:04:11.500)

I think I know a good explanation.

Lex Fridman (1:04:12.420)

So we're a bunch of NPCs living in this world

Lex Fridman (1:04:14.740)

created by, in the simulation.

Lex Fridman (1:04:16.580)

And then people, not people, creatures from outside

Lex Fridman (1:04:20.300)

of the simulation sort of can tune in

Lex Fridman (1:04:23.140)

and play your character.

Lex Fridman (1:04:24.220)

And that feeling you got is somebody just like,

Liv Boeree (1:04:27.220)

they got to play a poker tournament through you.

Lex Fridman (1:04:29.300)

Honestly, it felt like that.

Liv Boeree (1:04:30.660)

It did actually feel a little bit like that.

Lex Fridman (1:04:33.100)

But it's been 12 years now.

Liv Boeree (1:04:35.180)

I've retold the story many times.

Lex Fridman (1:04:36.700)

Like, I don't even know how much I can trust my memory.

Liv Boeree (1:04:38.940)

You're just an NPC retelling the same story.

Lex Fridman (1:04:41.500)

Because they just played the tournament and left.

Liv Boeree (1:04:43.780)

Yeah, they're like, oh, that was fun.

Lex Fridman (1:04:44.780)

Cool.

Liv Boeree (1:04:45.620)

Yeah, cool.

Lex Fridman (1:04:46.460)

Next time.

Lex Fridman (1:04:47.300)

And now you're for the rest of your life left

Lex Fridman (1:04:49.260)

as a boring NPC retelling this story of greatness.

Lex Fridman (1:04:51.860)

But it was, and what was interesting was that after that,

Lex Fridman (1:04:53.700)

then I didn't obviously win a major tournament

Liv Boeree (1:04:55.620)

for quite a long time.

Lex Fridman (1:04:56.780)

And it left, that was actually another sort of dark period

Liv Boeree (1:05:01.180)

because I had this incredible,

Lex Fridman (1:05:02.780)

like the highs of winning that,

Liv Boeree (1:05:04.340)

just on a like material level were insane,

Lex Fridman (1:05:06.180)

winning the money.

Liv Boeree (1:05:07.060)

I was on the front page of newspapers

Lex Fridman (1:05:08.540)

because there was like this girl that came out of nowhere

Lex Fridman (1:05:10.220)

and won this big thing.

Lex Fridman (1:05:12.180)

And so again, like sort of chasing that feeling

Liv Boeree (1:05:14.820)

was difficult.

Lex Fridman (1:05:16.700)

But then on top of that, there was this feeling

Liv Boeree (1:05:18.140)

of like almost being touched by something bigger

Lex Fridman (1:05:22.340)

that was like, ah.

Lex Fridman (1:05:24.060)

So maybe, did you have a sense

Lex Fridman (1:05:26.580)

that I might be somebody special?

Liv Boeree (1:05:29.540)

Like this kind of,

Lex Fridman (1:05:34.340)

I think that's the confidence thing

Liv Boeree (1:05:36.540)

that maybe you could do something special in this world

Lex Fridman (1:05:40.740)

after all kind of feeling.

Liv Boeree (1:05:42.300)

I definitely, I mean, this is the thing

Lex Fridman (1:05:45.340)

I think everybody wrestles with to an extent, right?

Liv Boeree (1:05:48.220)

We are truly the protagonists in our own lives.

Lex Fridman (1:05:51.540)

And so it's a natural bias, human bias

Liv Boeree (1:05:54.620)

to feel special.

Lex Fridman (1:05:58.860)

And I think, and in some ways we are special.

Liv Boeree (1:06:00.820)

Every single person is special

Lex Fridman (1:06:01.940)

because you are that, the universe does,

Liv Boeree (1:06:04.660)

the world literally does revolve around you.

Lex Fridman (1:06:06.220)

That's the thing in some respect.

Lex Fridman (1:06:08.580)

But of course, if you then zoom out

Lex Fridman (1:06:10.540)

and take the amalgam of everyone's experiences,

Liv Boeree (1:06:12.140)

then no, it doesn't.

Lex Fridman (1:06:12.980)

So there is this shared sort of objective reality,

Lex Fridman (1:06:15.700)

but sorry, there's objective reality that is shared,

Lex Fridman (1:06:17.740)

but then there's also this subjective reality

Liv Boeree (1:06:19.260)

which is truly unique to you.

Lex Fridman (1:06:20.740)

And I think both of those things coexist.

Lex Fridman (1:06:22.300)

And it's not like one is correct and one isn't.

Lex Fridman (1:06:24.460)

And again, anyone who's like,

Liv Boeree (1:06:26.300)

oh no, your lived experience is everything

Lex Fridman (1:06:28.180)

versus your lived experience is nothing.

Liv Boeree (1:06:30.100)

No, it's a blend between these two things.

Lex Fridman (1:06:32.500)

They can exist concurrently.

Lex Fridman (1:06:33.860)

But there's a certain kind of sense

Lex Fridman (1:06:35.300)

that at least I've had my whole life.

Lex Fridman (1:06:36.780)

And I think a lot of people have this as like,

Lex Fridman (1:06:38.500)

well, I'm just like this little person.

Liv Boeree (1:06:40.980)

Surely I can't be one of those people

Lex Fridman (1:06:42.900)

that do the big thing, right?

Liv Boeree (1:06:46.540)

There's all these big people doing big things.

Lex Fridman (1:06:48.660)

There's big actors and actresses, big musicians.

Liv Boeree (1:06:53.420)

There's big business owners and all that kind of stuff,

Lex Fridman (1:06:57.060)

scientists and so on.

Liv Boeree (1:06:58.700)

I have my own subject experience that I enjoy and so on,

Lex Fridman (1:07:02.420)

but there's like a different layer.

Liv Boeree (1:07:04.860)

Like surely I can't do those great things.

Lex Fridman (1:07:09.460)

I mean, one of the things just having interacted

Liv Boeree (1:07:11.500)

with a lot of great people, I realized,

Lex Fridman (1:07:14.140)

no, they're like just the same humans as me.

Lex Fridman (1:07:20.060)

And that realization I think is really empowering.

Lex Fridman (1:07:22.140)

And to remind yourself.

Lex Fridman (1:07:24.180)

What are they?

Lex Fridman (1:07:25.020)

Huh?

Lex Fridman (1:07:25.860)

What are they?

Lex Fridman (1:07:26.700)

Are they?

Liv Boeree (1:07:27.540)

Well, in terms of.

Lex Fridman (1:07:29.020)

Depends on some, yeah.

Liv Boeree (1:07:30.220)

They're like a bag of insecurities and.

Lex Fridman (1:07:33.900)

Yes.

Liv Boeree (1:07:36.940)

Peculiar sort of, like their own little weirdnesses

Lex Fridman (1:07:41.300)

and so on, I should say also not.

Liv Boeree (1:07:48.020)

They have the capacity for brilliance,

Lex Fridman (1:07:50.140)

but they're not generically brilliant.

Liv Boeree (1:07:52.860)

Like, you know, we tend to say this person

Lex Fridman (1:07:55.740)

or that person is brilliant, but really no,

Liv Boeree (1:07:59.620)

they're just like sitting there and thinking through stuff

Lex Fridman (1:08:02.740)

just like the rest of us.

Liv Boeree (1:08:04.780)

Right.

Lex Fridman (1:08:05.620)

I think they're in the habit of thinking through stuff

Liv Boeree (1:08:08.100)

seriously and they've built up a habit of not allowing them,

Lex Fridman (1:08:13.020)

their mind to get trapped in a bunch of bullshit

Lex Fridman (1:08:15.020)

and minutia of day to day life.

Lex Fridman (1:08:16.980)

They really think big ideas, but those big ideas,

Liv Boeree (1:08:21.420)

it's like allowing yourself the freedom to think big,

Lex Fridman (1:08:24.700)

to realize that you can be one that actually solved

Liv Boeree (1:08:27.980)

this particular big problem.

Lex Fridman (1:08:29.260)

First identify a big problem that you care about,

Liv Boeree (1:08:31.300)

then like, I can actually be the one

Lex Fridman (1:08:33.220)

that solves this problem.

Lex Fridman (1:08:34.860)

And like allowing yourself to believe that.

Lex Fridman (1:08:37.260)

And I think sometimes you do need to have like

Liv Boeree (1:08:39.380)

that shock go through your body and a voice tells you,

Lex Fridman (1:08:41.700)

you're gonna win this tournament.

Liv Boeree (1:08:42.900)

Well, exactly.

Lex Fridman (1:08:43.740)

And whether it was, it's this idea of useful fictions.

Lex Fridman (1:08:50.500)

So again, like going through all like

Lex Fridman (1:08:53.020)

the classic rationalist training of Les Wrong

Liv Boeree (1:08:55.500)

where it's like, you want your map,

Lex Fridman (1:08:57.460)

you know, the image you have of the world in your head

Liv Boeree (1:09:00.100)

to as accurately match up with how the world actually is.

Lex Fridman (1:09:04.380)

You want the map and the territory to perfectly align

Liv Boeree (1:09:06.900)

as, you know, you want it to be

Lex Fridman (1:09:08.380)

as an accurate representation as possible.

Liv Boeree (1:09:11.860)

I don't know if I fully subscribed to that anymore,

Lex Fridman (1:09:13.860)

having now had these moments of like feeling of something

Liv Boeree (1:09:17.420)

either bigger or just actually just being overconfident.

Lex Fridman (1:09:20.340)

Like there is value in overconfidence sometimes.

Liv Boeree (1:09:23.700)

If you, you know, take, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:09:25.780)

take Magnus Carlsen, right?

Liv Boeree (1:09:30.540)

If he, I'm sure from a young age,

Lex Fridman (1:09:32.260)

he knew he was very talented,

Lex Fridman (1:09:34.380)

but I wouldn't be surprised if he was also had something

Lex Fridman (1:09:37.340)

in him to, well, actually maybe he's a bad example

Liv Boeree (1:09:40.260)

because he truly is the world's greatest,

Lex Fridman (1:09:42.580)

but someone who it was unclear

Liv Boeree (1:09:44.380)

whether they were gonna be the world's greatest,

Lex Fridman (1:09:45.620)

but ended up doing extremely well

Liv Boeree (1:09:47.260)

because they had this innate, deep self confidence,

Lex Fridman (1:09:50.220)

this like even overblown idea

Liv Boeree (1:09:53.060)

of how good their relative skill level is.

Lex Fridman (1:09:54.860)

That gave them the confidence to then pursue this thing

Lex Fridman (1:09:56.900)

and they're like with the kind of focus and dedication

Lex Fridman (1:10:00.380)

that it requires to excel in whatever it is

Lex Fridman (1:10:02.380)

you're trying to do, you know?

Lex Fridman (1:10:03.420)

And so there are these useful fictions

Lex Fridman (1:10:06.060)

and that's where I think I diverge slightly

Lex Fridman (1:10:09.540)

with the classic sort of rationalist community

Liv Boeree (1:10:14.620)

because that's a field that is worth studying

Lex Fridman (1:10:21.300)

of like how the stories we tell,

Lex Fridman (1:10:23.220)

what the stories we tell to ourselves,

Lex Fridman (1:10:25.020)

even if they are actually false,

Lex Fridman (1:10:26.220)

and even if we suspect they might be false,

Lex Fridman (1:10:28.980)

how it's better to sort of have that like little bit

Liv Boeree (1:10:30.660)

of faith, like value in faith, I think actually.

Lex Fridman (1:10:34.380)

And that's partly another thing

Liv Boeree (1:10:35.860)

that's now led me to explore the concept of God,

Lex Fridman (1:10:40.620)

whether you wanna call it a simulator,

Liv Boeree (1:10:42.940)

the classic theological thing.

Lex Fridman (1:10:44.300)

I think we're all like elucidating to the same thing.

Liv Boeree (1:10:46.460)

Now, I don't know, I'm not saying,

Lex Fridman (1:10:47.780)

because obviously the Christian God

Liv Boeree (1:10:49.180)

is like all benevolent, endless love.

Lex Fridman (1:10:53.500)

The simulation, at least one of the simulation hypothesis

Liv Boeree (1:10:56.700)

is like, as you said, like a teenager in his bedroom

Lex Fridman (1:10:58.700)

who doesn't really care, doesn't give a shit

Liv Boeree (1:11:00.340)

about the individuals within there.

Lex Fridman (1:11:02.580)

It just like wants to see how the thing plays out

Liv Boeree (1:11:05.140)

because it's curious and it could turn it off like that.

Lex Fridman (1:11:07.620)

Where on the sort of psychopathy

Liv Boeree (1:11:09.900)

to benevolent spectrum God is, I don't know.

Lex Fridman (1:11:13.820)

But just having a little bit of faith

Liv Boeree (1:11:20.180)

that there is something else out there

Lex Fridman (1:11:21.700)

that might be interested in our outcome

Liv Boeree (1:11:24.340)

is I think an essential thing actually for people to find.

Lex Fridman (1:11:27.940)

A, because it creates commonality between,

Liv Boeree (1:11:29.860)

it's something we can all share.

Lex Fridman (1:11:31.860)

And it is uniquely humbling of all of us to an extent.

Liv Boeree (1:11:35.020)

It's like a common objective.

Lex Fridman (1:11:37.900)

But B, it gives people that little bit of like reserve

Liv Boeree (1:11:41.580)

when things get really dark.

Lex Fridman (1:11:43.380)

And I do think things are gonna get pretty dark

Liv Boeree (1:11:44.860)

over the next few years.

Lex Fridman (1:11:47.180)

But it gives that like,

Liv Boeree (1:11:49.260)

to think that there's something out there

Lex Fridman (1:11:50.780)

that actually wants our game to keep going.

Liv Boeree (1:11:53.140)

I keep calling it the game.

Lex Fridman (1:11:55.020)

It's a thing C and I, we call it the game.

Lex Fridman (1:11:57.660)

You and C is a.k.a. Grimes, we call what the game?

Lex Fridman (1:12:02.660)

Everything, the whole thing?

Liv Boeree (1:12:03.900)

Yeah, we joke about like.

Lex Fridman (1:12:05.500)

So everything is a game.

Liv Boeree (1:12:06.820)

Well, the universe, like what if it's a game

Lex Fridman (1:12:11.100)

and the goal of the game is to figure out like,

Liv Boeree (1:12:13.580)

well, either how to beat it, how to get out of it.

Lex Fridman (1:12:16.020)

Maybe this universe is an escape room,

Liv Boeree (1:12:18.820)

like a giant escape room.

Lex Fridman (1:12:20.140)

And the goal is to figure out,

Liv Boeree (1:12:22.900)

put all the pieces to puzzle, figure out how it works

Lex Fridman (1:12:25.820)

in order to like unlock this like hyperdimensional key

Lex Fridman (1:12:29.780)

and get out beyond what it is.

Lex Fridman (1:12:31.260)

That's.

Liv Boeree (1:12:32.100)

No, but then, so you're saying it's like different levels

Lex Fridman (1:12:34.380)

and it's like a cage within a cage within a cage

Lex Fridman (1:12:36.500)

and never like one cage at a time,

Lex Fridman (1:12:38.300)

you figure out how to escape that.

Liv Boeree (1:12:41.060)

Like a new level up, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:12:42.260)

like us becoming multi planetary would be a level up

Liv Boeree (1:12:44.380)

or us, you know, figuring out how to upload

Lex Fridman (1:12:46.700)

our consciousnesses to the thing.

Liv Boeree (1:12:48.260)

That would probably be a leveling up or spiritually,

Lex Fridman (1:12:51.380)

you know, humanity becoming more combined

Lex Fridman (1:12:53.580)

and less adversarial and bloodthirsty

Lex Fridman (1:12:56.900)

and us becoming a little bit more enlightened.

Liv Boeree (1:12:58.780)

That would be a leveling up.

Lex Fridman (1:12:59.620)

You know, there's many different frames to it,

Liv Boeree (1:13:01.860)

whether it's physical, you know, digital

Lex Fridman (1:13:05.140)

or like metaphysical.

Liv Boeree (1:13:05.980)

I wonder what the levels, I think,

Lex Fridman (1:13:07.380)

I think level one for earth is probably

Liv Boeree (1:13:10.900)

the biological evolutionary process.

Lex Fridman (1:13:14.060)

So going from single cell organisms to early humans.

Liv Boeree (1:13:18.380)

Then maybe level two is whatever's happening inside our minds

Lex Fridman (1:13:22.980)

and creating ideas and creating technologies.

Liv Boeree (1:13:26.100)

That's like evolutionary process of ideas.

Lex Fridman (1:13:31.340)

And then multi planetary is interesting.

Liv Boeree (1:13:34.620)

Is that fundamentally different

Lex Fridman (1:13:35.940)

from what we're doing here on earth?

Liv Boeree (1:13:37.900)

Probably, because it allows us to like exponentially scale.

Lex Fridman (1:13:41.780)

It delays the Malthusian trap, right?

Liv Boeree (1:13:46.380)

It's a way to keep the playing field,

Lex Fridman (1:13:50.380)

to make the playing field get larger

Lex Fridman (1:13:53.380)

so that it can accommodate more of our stuff, more of us.

Lex Fridman (1:13:57.260)

And that's a good thing,

Lex Fridman (1:13:58.460)

but I don't know if it like fully solves this issue of,

Lex Fridman (1:14:05.740)

well, this thing called Moloch,

Liv Boeree (1:14:06.740)

which we haven't talked about yet,

Lex Fridman (1:14:07.820)

but which is basically,

Liv Boeree (1:14:10.660)

I call it the God of unhealthy competition.

Lex Fridman (1:14:12.740)

Yeah, let's go to Moloch.

Lex Fridman (1:14:13.980)

What's Moloch?

Lex Fridman (1:14:14.980)

You did a great video on Moloch and one aspect of it,

Liv Boeree (1:14:18.380)

the application of it to one aspect.

Lex Fridman (1:14:20.420)

Instagram beauty filters.

Liv Boeree (1:14:22.420)

True.

Lex Fridman (1:14:23.580)

Very niche, but I wanted to start off small.

Lex Fridman (1:14:27.340)

So Moloch was originally coined as,

Lex Fridman (1:14:34.540)

well, so apparently back in the like Canaanite times,

Liv Boeree (1:14:39.540)

it was to say ancient Carthaginian,

Lex Fridman (1:14:41.420)

I can never say it Carthaginian,

Liv Boeree (1:14:43.220)

somewhere around like 300 BC or 280, I don't know.

Lex Fridman (1:14:47.620)

There was supposedly this death cult

Liv Boeree (1:14:49.700)

who would sacrifice their children

Lex Fridman (1:14:53.220)

to this awful demon God thing they called Moloch

Liv Boeree (1:14:56.980)

in order to get power to win wars.

Lex Fridman (1:14:59.380)

So really dark, horrible things.

Lex Fridman (1:15:00.900)

And it was literally like about child sacrifice,

Lex Fridman (1:15:02.580)

whether they actually existed or not, we don't know,

Lex Fridman (1:15:04.060)

but in mythology they did.

Lex Fridman (1:15:05.660)

And this God that they worshiped

Liv Boeree (1:15:07.220)

was this thing called Moloch.

Lex Fridman (1:15:09.220)

And then I don't know,

Liv Boeree (1:15:10.940)

it seemed like it was kind of quiet throughout history

Lex Fridman (1:15:13.660)

in terms of mythology beyond that,

Liv Boeree (1:15:15.420)

until this movie Metropolis in 1927 talked about this,

Lex Fridman (1:15:24.420)

you see that there was this incredible futuristic city

Liv Boeree (1:15:27.020)

that everyone was living great in,

Lex Fridman (1:15:29.100)

but then the protagonist goes underground into the sewers

Lex Fridman (1:15:31.380)

and sees that the city is run by this machine.

Lex Fridman (1:15:34.260)

And this machine basically would just like kill the workers

Liv Boeree (1:15:37.300)

all the time because it was just so hard to keep it running.

Lex Fridman (1:15:40.060)

They were always dying.

Lex Fridman (1:15:40.900)

So there was all this suffering that was required

Lex Fridman (1:15:42.980)

in order to keep the city going.

Lex Fridman (1:15:44.540)

And then the protagonist has this vision

Lex Fridman (1:15:45.900)

that this machine is actually this demon Moloch.

Lex Fridman (1:15:48.140)

So again, it's like this sort of like mechanistic consumption

Lex Fridman (1:15:50.860)

of humans in order to get more power.

Lex Fridman (1:15:54.780)

And then Allen Ginsberg wrote a poem in the 60s,

Lex Fridman (1:15:58.700)

which incredible poem called Howl about this thing Moloch.

Lex Fridman (1:16:04.420)

And a lot of people sort of quite understandably

Lex Fridman (1:16:06.980)

take the interpretation of that,

Liv Boeree (1:16:08.740)

that he's talking about capitalism.

Lex Fridman (1:16:10.820)

But then the sort of piece to resistance

Liv Boeree (1:16:13.740)

that's moved Moloch into this idea of game theory

Lex Fridman (1:16:16.340)

was Scott Alexander of Slate Style Codex

Liv Boeree (1:16:20.540)

wrote this incredible,

Lex Fridman (1:16:21.700)

well, literally I think it might be my favorite piece

Liv Boeree (1:16:23.420)

of writing of all time.

Lex Fridman (1:16:24.260)

It's called Meditations on Moloch.

Liv Boeree (1:16:26.180)

Everyone must go read it.

Lex Fridman (1:16:28.820)

And...

Liv Boeree (1:16:29.660)

I say Codex is a blog.

Lex Fridman (1:16:30.940)

It's a blog, yes.

Lex Fridman (1:16:32.300)

We can link to it in the show notes or something, right?

Lex Fridman (1:16:35.220)

No, don't.

Liv Boeree (1:16:36.060)

I, yes, yes.

Lex Fridman (1:16:38.340)

But I like how you assume

Liv Boeree (1:16:41.260)

I have a professional operation going on here.

Lex Fridman (1:16:43.540)

I mean...

Liv Boeree (1:16:44.380)

I shall try to remember to...

Lex Fridman (1:16:45.220)

You were gonna assume.

Lex Fridman (1:16:46.060)

What do you...

Lex Fridman (1:16:46.900)

What are you, what do you want?

Liv Boeree (1:16:48.100)

You're giving the impression of it.

Lex Fridman (1:16:49.420)

Yeah, I'll look, please.

Liv Boeree (1:16:50.700)

If I don't, please somebody in the comments remind me.

Lex Fridman (1:16:53.260)

I'll help you.

Liv Boeree (1:16:54.100)

If you don't know this blog,

Lex Fridman (1:16:55.780)

it's one of the best blogs ever probably.

Liv Boeree (1:16:59.420)

You should probably be following it.

Lex Fridman (1:17:01.180)

Yes.

Lex Fridman (1:17:02.020)

Are blogs still a thing?

Lex Fridman (1:17:03.340)

I think they are still a thing, yeah.

Liv Boeree (1:17:04.660)

Yeah, he's migrated onto Substack,

Lex Fridman (1:17:06.220)

but yeah, it's still a blog.

Liv Boeree (1:17:07.860)

Anyway.

Lex Fridman (1:17:08.700)

Substack better not fuck things up, but...

Liv Boeree (1:17:10.860)

I hope not, yeah.

Lex Fridman (1:17:12.100)

I hope they don't, I hope they don't turn Molochy,

Liv Boeree (1:17:14.620)

which will mean something to people when we continue.

Lex Fridman (1:17:16.700)

Yeah.

Liv Boeree (1:17:17.540)

When I stop interrupting for once.

Lex Fridman (1:17:19.460)

No, no, it's good.

Liv Boeree (1:17:20.300)

Go on, yeah.

Lex Fridman (1:17:21.140)

So anyway, so he writes,

Liv Boeree (1:17:22.220)

he writes this piece, Meditations on Moloch,

Lex Fridman (1:17:24.940)

and basically he analyzes the poem and he's like,

Liv Boeree (1:17:28.220)

okay, so it seems to be something relating

Lex Fridman (1:17:29.700)

to where competition goes wrong.

Liv Boeree (1:17:32.460)

And, you know, Moloch was historically this thing

Lex Fridman (1:17:35.580)

of like where people would sacrifice a thing

Liv Boeree (1:17:38.820)

that they care about, in this case, children,

Lex Fridman (1:17:40.460)

their own children, in order to gain power,

Liv Boeree (1:17:43.220)

a competitive advantage.

Lex Fridman (1:17:45.340)

And if you look at almost everything that sort of goes wrong

Liv Boeree (1:17:48.860)

in our society, it's that same process.

Lex Fridman (1:17:52.300)

So with the Instagram beauty filters thing,

Liv Boeree (1:17:56.420)

you know, if you're trying to become

Lex Fridman (1:17:57.900)

a famous Instagram model,

Liv Boeree (1:18:01.940)

you are incentivized to post the hottest pictures

Lex Fridman (1:18:03.820)

of yourself that you can, you know,

Liv Boeree (1:18:05.620)

you're trying to play that game.

Lex Fridman (1:18:07.220)

There's a lot of hot women on Instagram.

Lex Fridman (1:18:08.660)

How do you compete against them?

Lex Fridman (1:18:10.020)

You post really hot pictures

Lex Fridman (1:18:11.540)

and that's how you get more likes.

Lex Fridman (1:18:14.220)

As technology gets better, you know,

Liv Boeree (1:18:16.780)

more makeup techniques come along.

Lex Fridman (1:18:19.260)

And then more recently, these beauty filters

Liv Boeree (1:18:22.020)

where like at the touch of a button,

Lex Fridman (1:18:23.420)

it makes your face look absolutely incredible

Liv Boeree (1:18:26.060)

compared to your natural face.

Lex Fridman (1:18:29.540)

These technologies come along,

Liv Boeree (1:18:30.940)

it's everyone is incentivized to that short term strategy.

Lex Fridman (1:18:35.620)

But over on net, it's bad for everyone

Liv Boeree (1:18:39.020)

because now everyone is kind of feeling

Lex Fridman (1:18:40.460)

like they have to use these things.

Lex Fridman (1:18:41.660)

And these things like they make you like,

Lex Fridman (1:18:43.060)

the reason why I talked about them in this video

Liv Boeree (1:18:44.380)

is because I noticed it myself, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:18:45.860)

like I was trying to grow my Instagram for a while,

Liv Boeree (1:18:48.820)

I've given up on it now.

Lex Fridman (1:18:49.660)

But yeah, and I noticed these filters,

Lex Fridman (1:18:52.500)

how good they made me look.

Lex Fridman (1:18:53.420)

And I'm like, well, I know that everyone else

Liv Boeree (1:18:56.380)

is kind of doing it.

Lex Fridman (1:18:57.220)

Go subscribe to Liv's Instagram.

Liv Boeree (1:18:58.980)

Please, so I don't have to use the filters.

Lex Fridman (1:19:01.180)

I'll post a bunch of, yeah, make it blow up.

Lex Fridman (1:19:06.020)

So yeah, you felt the pressure actually.

Lex Fridman (1:19:08.460)

Exactly, these short term incentives

Liv Boeree (1:19:10.980)

to do this like, this thing that like either sacrifices

Lex Fridman (1:19:13.980)

your integrity or something else

Liv Boeree (1:19:17.300)

in order to like stay competitive,

Lex Fridman (1:19:20.100)

which on aggregate turns like,

Liv Boeree (1:19:22.700)

creates this like sort of race to the bottom spiral

Lex Fridman (1:19:24.820)

where everyone else ends up in a situation

Liv Boeree (1:19:26.580)

which is worse off than if they hadn't started,

Lex Fridman (1:19:28.220)

you know, than they were before.

Liv Boeree (1:19:29.300)

Kind of like if, like at a football stadium,

Lex Fridman (1:19:34.300)

like the system is so badly designed,

Liv Boeree (1:19:36.380)

a competitive system of like everyone sitting

Lex Fridman (1:19:38.140)

and having a view that if someone at the very front

Liv Boeree (1:19:40.220)

stands up to get an even better view,

Lex Fridman (1:19:42.060)

it forces everyone else behind

Liv Boeree (1:19:43.620)

to like adopt that same strategy

Lex Fridman (1:19:45.420)

just to get to where they were before.

Lex Fridman (1:19:46.980)

But now everyone's stuck standing up.

Lex Fridman (1:19:48.700)

Like, so you need this like top down God's eye coordination

Liv Boeree (1:19:51.860)

to make it go back to the better state.

Lex Fridman (1:19:53.820)

But from within the system, you can't actually do that.

Lex Fridman (1:19:56.100)

So that's kind of what this Moloch thing is.

Lex Fridman (1:19:57.660)

It's this thing that makes people sacrifice values

Liv Boeree (1:20:01.580)

in order to optimize for the winning the game in question,

Lex Fridman (1:20:04.620)

the short term game.

Lex Fridman (1:20:05.500)

But this Moloch, can you attribute it

Lex Fridman (1:20:09.740)

to any one centralized source

Liv Boeree (1:20:11.700)

or is it an emergent phenomena

Lex Fridman (1:20:13.620)

from a large collection of people?

Liv Boeree (1:20:16.140)

Exactly that.

Lex Fridman (1:20:16.980)

It's an emergent phenomena.

Liv Boeree (1:20:18.860)

It's a force of game theory.

Lex Fridman (1:20:22.220)

It's a force of bad incentives on a multi agent system

Liv Boeree (1:20:25.580)

where you've got more, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:20:26.580)

prisoner's dilemma is technically

Liv Boeree (1:20:28.140)

a kind of Moloch system as well,

Lex Fridman (1:20:30.500)

but it's just a two player thing.

Lex Fridman (1:20:31.980)

But another word for Moloch is it multipolar trap.

Lex Fridman (1:20:35.740)

Where basically you just got a lot of different people

Liv Boeree (1:20:37.780)

all competing for some kind of prize.

Lex Fridman (1:20:40.740)

And it would be better

Liv Boeree (1:20:42.380)

if everyone didn't do this one shitty strategy,

Lex Fridman (1:20:44.740)

but because that strategy gives you a short term advantage,

Liv Boeree (1:20:47.260)

everyone's incentivized to do it.

Lex Fridman (1:20:48.500)

And so everyone ends up doing it.

Lex Fridman (1:20:49.860)

So the responsibility for,

Lex Fridman (1:20:51.980)

I mean, social media is a really nice place

Liv Boeree (1:20:54.060)

for a large number of people to play game theory.

Lex Fridman (1:20:56.860)

And so they also have the ability

Liv Boeree (1:20:59.740)

to then design the rules of the game.

Lex Fridman (1:21:02.580)

And is it on them to try to anticipate

Lex Fridman (1:21:05.540)

what kind of like to do the thing

Lex Fridman (1:21:07.900)

that poker players are doing to run simulation?

Liv Boeree (1:21:11.100)

Ideally that would have been great.

Lex Fridman (1:21:12.380)

If, you know, Mark Zuckerberg and Jack

Lex Fridman (1:21:15.580)

and all the, you know, the Twitter founders and everyone,

Lex Fridman (1:21:17.260)

if they had at least just run a few simulations

Liv Boeree (1:21:20.580)

of how their algorithms would, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:21:23.220)

if different types of algorithms would turn out for society,

Liv Boeree (1:21:26.260)

that would have been great.

Lex Fridman (1:21:27.340)

That's really difficult to do

Liv Boeree (1:21:28.700)

that kind of deep philosophical thinking

Lex Fridman (1:21:30.420)

about thinking about humanity actually.

Lex Fridman (1:21:33.100)

So not kind of this level of how do we optimize engagement

Lex Fridman (1:21:40.580)

or what brings people joy in the short term,

Lex Fridman (1:21:42.860)

but how is this thing going to change

Lex Fridman (1:21:45.300)

the way people see the world?

Lex Fridman (1:21:47.940)

How is it gonna get morphed in iterative games played

Lex Fridman (1:21:52.940)

into something that will change society forever?

Liv Boeree (1:21:56.860)

That requires some deep thinking.

Lex Fridman (1:21:58.500)

That's, I hope there's meetings like that inside companies,

Lex Fridman (1:22:02.420)

but I haven't seen them.

Lex Fridman (1:22:03.260)

There aren't, that's the problem.

Lex Fridman (1:22:04.300)

And it's difficult because like,

Lex Fridman (1:22:07.500)

when you're starting up a social media company,

Liv Boeree (1:22:09.740)

you know, you're aware that you've got investors to please,

Lex Fridman (1:22:13.940)

there's bills to pay, you know,

Liv Boeree (1:22:17.100)

there's only so much R&D you can afford to do.

Lex Fridman (1:22:19.940)

You've got all these like incredible pressures,

Liv Boeree (1:22:21.940)

bad incentives to get on and just build your thing

Lex Fridman (1:22:24.420)

as quickly as possible and start making money.

Liv Boeree (1:22:26.620)

And, you know, I don't think anyone intended

Lex Fridman (1:22:29.100)

when they built these social media platforms

Lex Fridman (1:22:32.580)

and just to like preface it.

Lex Fridman (1:22:33.860)

So the reason why, you know, social media is relevant

Liv Boeree (1:22:36.340)

because it's a very good example of like,

Lex Fridman (1:22:38.740)

everyone these days is optimizing for, you know, clicks,

Liv Boeree (1:22:42.980)

whether it's a social media platforms themselves,

Lex Fridman (1:22:44.780)

because, you know, every click gets more, you know,

Liv Boeree (1:22:47.300)

impressions and impressions pay for, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:22:49.740)

they get advertising dollars

Liv Boeree (1:22:50.980)

or whether it's individual influencers

Lex Fridman (1:22:53.740)

or, you know, whether it's a New York Times or whoever,

Liv Boeree (1:22:56.100)

they're trying to get their story to go viral.

Lex Fridman (1:22:58.300)

So everyone's got this bad incentive of using, you know,

Liv Boeree (1:23:00.220)

as you called it, the clickbait industrial complex.

Lex Fridman (1:23:02.780)

That's a very molly key system

Liv Boeree (1:23:04.220)

because everyone is now using worse and worse tactics

Lex Fridman (1:23:06.260)

in order to like try and win this attention game.

Lex Fridman (1:23:09.500)

And yeah, so ideally these companies

Lex Fridman (1:23:14.620)

would have had enough slack in the beginning

Liv Boeree (1:23:17.300)

in order to run these experiments to see,

Lex Fridman (1:23:19.780)

okay, what are the ways this could possibly go wrong

Lex Fridman (1:23:22.460)

for people?

Lex Fridman (1:23:23.300)

What are the ways that Moloch,

Liv Boeree (1:23:24.700)

they should be aware of this concept of Moloch

Lex Fridman (1:23:26.300)

and realize that whenever you have

Liv Boeree (1:23:28.300)

a highly competitive multiagent system,

Lex Fridman (1:23:31.300)

which social media is a classic example of,

Liv Boeree (1:23:32.900)

millions of agents all trying to compete

Lex Fridman (1:23:34.900)

for likes and so on,

Lex Fridman (1:23:35.940)

and you try and bring all this complexity down

Lex Fridman (1:23:39.940)

into like very small metrics,

Liv Boeree (1:23:41.900)

such as number of likes, number of retweets,

Lex Fridman (1:23:44.860)

whatever the algorithm optimizes for,

Liv Boeree (1:23:46.700)

that is a guaranteed recipe for this stuff to go wrong

Lex Fridman (1:23:49.780)

and become a race to the bottom.

Liv Boeree (1:23:51.540)

I think there should be an honesty when founders,

Lex Fridman (1:23:53.900)

I think there's a hunger for that kind of transparency

Liv Boeree (1:23:56.380)

of like, we don't know what the fuck we're doing.

Lex Fridman (1:23:58.180)

This is a fascinating experiment.

Liv Boeree (1:23:59.700)

We're all running as a human civilization.

Lex Fridman (1:24:02.780)

Let's try this out.

Lex Fridman (1:24:04.260)

And like, actually just be honest about this,

Lex Fridman (1:24:06.380)

that we're all like these weird rats in a maze.

Liv Boeree (1:24:10.420)

None of us are controlling it.

Lex Fridman (1:24:12.380)

There's this kind of sense like the founders,

Liv Boeree (1:24:15.100)

the CEO of Instagram or whatever,

Lex Fridman (1:24:17.540)

Mark Zuckerberg has a control and he's like,

Liv Boeree (1:24:19.980)

like with strings playing people.

Lex Fridman (1:24:21.820)

No, they're.

Liv Boeree (1:24:22.860)

He's at the mercy of this is like everyone else.

Lex Fridman (1:24:24.580)

He's just like trying to do his best.

Lex Fridman (1:24:26.540)

And like, I think putting on a smile

Lex Fridman (1:24:29.260)

and doing over polished videos

Liv Boeree (1:24:32.980)

about how Instagram and Facebook are good for you,

Lex Fridman (1:24:36.860)

I think is not the right way to actually ask

Liv Boeree (1:24:39.980)

some of the deepest questions we get to ask as a society.

Lex Fridman (1:24:43.180)

How do we design the game such that we build a better world?

Liv Boeree (1:24:48.100)

I think a big part of this as well is people,

Lex Fridman (1:24:51.700)

there's this philosophy, particularly in Silicon Valley

Liv Boeree (1:24:56.980)

of well, techno optimism,

Lex Fridman (1:24:58.500)

technology will solve all our issues.

Lex Fridman (1:25:01.300)

And there's a steel man argument to that where yes,

Lex Fridman (1:25:03.700)

technology has solved a lot of problems

Lex Fridman (1:25:05.380)

and can potentially solve a lot of future ones.

Lex Fridman (1:25:08.140)

But it can also, it's always a double edged sword.

Lex Fridman (1:25:10.820)

And particularly as you know,

Lex Fridman (1:25:11.900)

technology gets more and more powerful

Lex Fridman (1:25:13.420)

and we've now got like big data

Lex Fridman (1:25:15.060)

and we're able to do all kinds of like

Liv Boeree (1:25:17.300)

psychological manipulation with it and so on.

Lex Fridman (1:25:22.740)

Technology is not a values neutral thing.

Liv Boeree (1:25:24.940)

People think, I used to always think this myself.

Lex Fridman (1:25:26.980)

It's like this naive view that,

Liv Boeree (1:25:28.900)

oh, technology is completely neutral.

Lex Fridman (1:25:30.700)

It's just, it's the humans that either make it good or bad.

Liv Boeree (1:25:33.820)

No, to the point we're at now,

Lex Fridman (1:25:36.620)

the technology that we are creating,

Liv Boeree (1:25:38.020)

they are social technologies.

Lex Fridman (1:25:39.420)

They literally dictate how humans now form social groups

Lex Fridman (1:25:45.420)

and so on beyond that.

Lex Fridman (1:25:46.260)

And beyond that, it also then,

Liv Boeree (1:25:47.780)

that gives rise to like the memes

Lex Fridman (1:25:49.580)

that we then like coalesce around.

Lex Fridman (1:25:51.980)

And that, if you have the stack that way

Lex Fridman (1:25:54.380)

where it's technology driving social interaction,

Liv Boeree (1:25:56.940)

which then drives like memetic culture

Lex Fridman (1:26:00.460)

and like which ideas become popular, that's Moloch.

Lex Fridman (1:26:04.780)

And we need the other way around, we need it.

Lex Fridman (1:26:06.820)

So we need to figure out what are the good memes?

Lex Fridman (1:26:08.420)

What are the good values

Lex Fridman (1:26:11.820)

that we think we need to optimize for

Liv Boeree (1:26:15.060)

that like makes people happy and healthy

Lex Fridman (1:26:17.180)

and like keeps society as robust and safe as possible,

Liv Boeree (1:26:21.340)

then figure out what the social structure

Lex Fridman (1:26:22.820)

around those should be.

Lex Fridman (1:26:23.660)

And only then do we figure out technology,

Lex Fridman (1:26:25.460)

but we're doing the other way around.

Lex Fridman (1:26:26.780)

And as much as I love in many ways

Lex Fridman (1:26:31.900)

the culture of Silicon Valley,

Lex Fridman (1:26:32.940)

and like I do think that technology has,

Lex Fridman (1:26:36.020)

I don't wanna knock it.

Liv Boeree (1:26:36.860)

It's done so many wonderful things for us,

Lex Fridman (1:26:38.180)

same as capitalism.

Liv Boeree (1:26:40.340)

There are, we have to like be honest with ourselves.

Lex Fridman (1:26:44.100)

We're getting to a point where we are losing control

Liv Boeree (1:26:47.220)

of this very powerful machine that we have created.

Lex Fridman (1:26:49.580)

Can you redesign the machine within the game?

Lex Fridman (1:26:53.220)

Can you just have, can you understand the game enough?

Lex Fridman (1:26:57.380)

Okay, this is the game.

Lex Fridman (1:26:58.860)

And this is how we start to reemphasize

Lex Fridman (1:27:01.900)

the memes that matter,

Liv Boeree (1:27:03.860)

the memes that bring out the best in us.

Lex Fridman (1:27:06.740)

You know, like the way I try to be in real life

Lex Fridman (1:27:11.340)

and the way I try to be online

Lex Fridman (1:27:13.260)

is to be about kindness and love.

Lex Fridman (1:27:15.900)

And I feel like I'm sometimes get like criticized

Lex Fridman (1:27:19.860)

for being naive and all those kinds of things.

Lex Fridman (1:27:22.040)

But I feel like I'm just trying to live within this game.

Lex Fridman (1:27:25.840)

I'm trying to be authentic.

Liv Boeree (1:27:27.520)

Yeah, but also like, hey, it's kind of fun to do this.

Lex Fridman (1:27:31.080)

Like you guys should try this too, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:27:33.900)

and that's like trying to redesign

Lex Fridman (1:27:37.180)

some aspects of the game within the game.

Lex Fridman (1:27:40.940)

Is that possible?

Lex Fridman (1:27:43.240)

I don't know, but I think we should try.

Liv Boeree (1:27:46.740)

I don't think we have an option but to try.

Lex Fridman (1:27:48.620)

Well, the other option is to create new companies

Liv Boeree (1:27:51.140)

or to pressure companies that,

Lex Fridman (1:27:55.300)

or anyone who has control of the rules of the game.

Liv Boeree (1:27:59.060)

I think we need to be doing all of the above.

Lex Fridman (1:28:01.100)

I think we need to be thinking hard

Liv Boeree (1:28:02.980)

about what are the kind of positive, healthy memes.

Lex Fridman (1:28:09.140)

You know, as Elon said,

Liv Boeree (1:28:10.900)

he who controls the memes controls the universe.

Lex Fridman (1:28:13.620)

He said that.

Liv Boeree (1:28:14.460)

I think he did, yeah.

Lex Fridman (1:28:16.300)

But there's truth to that.

Liv Boeree (1:28:17.860)

It's very, there is wisdom in that

Lex Fridman (1:28:19.380)

because memes have driven history.

Liv Boeree (1:28:22.700)

You know, we are a cultural species.

Lex Fridman (1:28:24.900)

That's what sets us apart from chimpanzees

Lex Fridman (1:28:27.140)

and everything else.

Lex Fridman (1:28:27.980)

We have the ability to learn and evolve through culture

Liv Boeree (1:28:32.500)

as opposed to biology or like, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:28:34.900)

classic physical constraints.

Lex Fridman (1:28:37.300)

And that means culture is incredibly powerful

Lex Fridman (1:28:40.740)

and we can create and become victim

Liv Boeree (1:28:43.820)

to very bad memes or very good ones.

Lex Fridman (1:28:46.620)

But we do have some agency over which memes,

Liv Boeree (1:28:49.300)

you know, we, but not only put out there,

Lex Fridman (1:28:51.940)

but we also like subscribe to.

Lex Fridman (1:28:54.540)

So I think we need to take that approach.

Lex Fridman (1:28:56.460)

We also need to, you know,

Liv Boeree (1:28:58.980)

because I don't want, I'm making this video right now

Lex Fridman (1:29:02.740)

called The Attention Wars,

Liv Boeree (1:29:03.740)

which is about like how Moloch,

Lex Fridman (1:29:05.460)

like the media machine is this Moloch machine.

Liv Boeree (1:29:08.500)

Well, is this kind of like blind dumb thing

Lex Fridman (1:29:11.580)

where everyone is optimizing for engagement

Liv Boeree (1:29:13.140)

in order to win their share of the attention pie.

Lex Fridman (1:29:16.420)

And then if you zoom out,

Liv Boeree (1:29:17.300)

it's really like Moloch that's pulling the strings

Lex Fridman (1:29:19.180)

because the only thing that benefits from this in the end,

Liv Boeree (1:29:20.860)

you know, like our information ecosystem is breaking down.

Lex Fridman (1:29:23.980)

Like we have, you look at the state of the US,

Liv Boeree (1:29:26.420)

it's in, we're in a civil war.

Lex Fridman (1:29:28.340)

It's just not a physical war.

Liv Boeree (1:29:29.900)

It's an information war.

Lex Fridman (1:29:33.220)

And people are becoming more fractured

Liv Boeree (1:29:35.020)

in terms of what their actual shared reality is.

Lex Fridman (1:29:37.380)

Like truly like an extreme left person,

Liv Boeree (1:29:39.500)

an extreme right person,

Lex Fridman (1:29:40.420)

like they literally live in different worlds

Liv Boeree (1:29:43.380)

in their minds at this point.

Lex Fridman (1:29:45.220)

And it's getting more and more amplified.

Lex Fridman (1:29:47.180)

And this force is like a razor blade

Lex Fridman (1:29:50.260)

pushing through everything.

Liv Boeree (1:29:51.860)

It doesn't matter how innocuous a topic is,

Lex Fridman (1:29:53.340)

it will find a way to split into this,

Liv Boeree (1:29:55.220)

you know, bifurcated cultural and it's fucking terrifying.

Lex Fridman (1:29:58.260)

Because that maximizes the tension.

Lex Fridman (1:29:59.780)

And that's like an emergent Moloch type force

Lex Fridman (1:30:03.140)

that takes anything, any topic

Lex Fridman (1:30:06.820)

and cuts through it so that it can split nicely

Lex Fridman (1:30:11.140)

into two groups.

Liv Boeree (1:30:12.500)

One that's...

Lex Fridman (1:30:13.820)

Well, it's whatever, yeah,

Liv Boeree (1:30:16.380)

all everyone is trying to do within the system

Lex Fridman (1:30:17.980)

is just maximize whatever gets them the most attention

Liv Boeree (1:30:21.180)

because they're just trying to make money

Lex Fridman (1:30:22.300)

so they can keep their thing going, right?

Lex Fridman (1:30:24.460)

And the best emotion for getting attention,

Lex Fridman (1:30:29.140)

well, because it's not just about attention on the internet,

Lex Fridman (1:30:30.820)

it's engagement, that's the key thing, right?

Lex Fridman (1:30:33.020)

In order for something to go viral,

Liv Boeree (1:30:34.380)

you need people to actually engage with it.

Lex Fridman (1:30:35.940)

They need to like comment or retweet or whatever.

Lex Fridman (1:30:39.740)

And of all the emotions that,

Lex Fridman (1:30:43.540)

there's like seven classic shared emotions

Liv Boeree (1:30:45.780)

that studies have found that all humans,

Lex Fridman (1:30:47.500)

even from like previously uncontacted tribes have.

Liv Boeree (1:30:51.020)

Some of those are negative, you know, like sadness,

Lex Fridman (1:30:54.620)

disgust, anger, et cetera, some are positive,

Liv Boeree (1:30:57.580)

happiness, excitement, and so on.

Lex Fridman (1:31:01.140)

The one that happens to be the most useful

Liv Boeree (1:31:03.540)

for the internet is anger.

Lex Fridman (1:31:05.540)

Because anger, it's such an active emotion.

Liv Boeree (1:31:09.780)

If you want people to engage, if someone's scared,

Lex Fridman (1:31:13.060)

and I'm not just like talking out my ass here,

Liv Boeree (1:31:14.700)

there are studies here that have looked into this.

Lex Fridman (1:31:18.540)

Whereas like if someone's like,

Liv Boeree (1:31:19.580)

disgusted or fearful, they actually tend to then be like,

Lex Fridman (1:31:22.420)

oh, I don't wanna deal with this.

Lex Fridman (1:31:23.500)

So they're less likely to actually engage

Lex Fridman (1:31:25.100)

and share it and so on, they're just gonna be like, ugh.

Liv Boeree (1:31:27.180)

Whereas if they're enraged by a thing,

Lex Fridman (1:31:29.700)

well now that triggers all the like,

Liv Boeree (1:31:31.980)

the old tribalism emotions.

Lex Fridman (1:31:34.820)

And so that's how then things get sort of spread,

Liv Boeree (1:31:37.260)

you know, much more easily.

Lex Fridman (1:31:38.100)

They out compete all the other memes in the ecosystem.

Lex Fridman (1:31:42.180)

And so this like, the attention economy,

Lex Fridman (1:31:46.180)

the wheels that make it go around are,

Liv Boeree (1:31:48.340)

is rage.

Lex Fridman (1:31:49.740)

I did a tweet, the problem with raging against the machine

Liv Boeree (1:31:53.860)

is that the machine has learned to feed off rage.

Lex Fridman (1:31:56.020)

Because it is feeding off our rage.

Liv Boeree (1:31:57.860)

That's the thing that's now keeping it going.

Lex Fridman (1:31:59.180)

So the more we get angry, the worse it gets.

Lex Fridman (1:32:01.900)

So the mullet in this attention,

Lex Fridman (1:32:04.700)

in the war of attention is constantly maximizing rage.

Lex Fridman (1:32:10.260)

What it is optimizing for is engagement.

Lex Fridman (1:32:12.420)

And it happens to be that engagement

Liv Boeree (1:32:14.300)

is more propaganda, you know.

Lex Fridman (1:32:20.460)

I mean, it just sounds like everything is putting,

Liv Boeree (1:32:23.220)

more and more things are being put through this

Lex Fridman (1:32:24.500)

like propagandist lens of winning

Liv Boeree (1:32:27.020)

whatever the war is in question.

Lex Fridman (1:32:28.900)

Whether it's the culture war or the Ukraine war, yeah.

Liv Boeree (1:32:31.420)

Well, I think the silver lining of this,

Lex Fridman (1:32:33.260)

do you think it's possible that in the long arc

Liv Boeree (1:32:36.540)

of this process, you actually do arrive

Lex Fridman (1:32:39.580)

at greater wisdom and more progress?

Liv Boeree (1:32:41.820)

It just, in the moment, it feels like people are

Lex Fridman (1:32:45.100)

tearing each other to shreds over ideas.

Lex Fridman (1:32:47.780)

But if you think about it, one of the magic things

Lex Fridman (1:32:49.580)

about democracy and so on, is you have

Liv Boeree (1:32:51.740)

the blue versus red constantly fighting.

Lex Fridman (1:32:53.900)

It's almost like they're in discourse,

Liv Boeree (1:32:58.180)

creating devil's advocate, making devils out of each other.

Lex Fridman (1:33:01.300)

And through that process, discussing ideas.

Liv Boeree (1:33:04.900)

Like almost really embodying different ideas

Lex Fridman (1:33:07.740)

just to yell at each other.

Lex Fridman (1:33:08.860)

And through the yelling, over the period of decades,

Lex Fridman (1:33:11.660)

maybe centuries, figuring out a better system.

Liv Boeree (1:33:15.380)

Like in the moment, it feels fucked up.

Lex Fridman (1:33:17.580)

But in the long arc, it actually is productive.

Liv Boeree (1:33:20.820)

I hope so.

Lex Fridman (1:33:23.340)

That said, we are now in the era of,

Liv Boeree (1:33:28.460)

just as we have weapons of mass destruction

Lex Fridman (1:33:30.540)

with nuclear weapons, you know,

Liv Boeree (1:33:32.420)

that can break the whole playing field,

Lex Fridman (1:33:35.260)

we now are developing weapons

Liv Boeree (1:33:37.700)

of informational mass destruction.

Lex Fridman (1:33:39.420)

Information weapons, you know, WMDs

Liv Boeree (1:33:41.940)

that basically can be used for propaganda

Lex Fridman (1:33:44.860)

or just manipulating people however is needed,

Liv Boeree (1:33:49.540)

whether that's through dumb TikTok videos,

Lex Fridman (1:33:53.100)

or, you know, there are significant resources being put in.

Liv Boeree (1:33:59.100)

I don't mean to sound like, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:34:01.500)

to doom and gloom, but there are bad actors out there.

Liv Boeree (1:34:04.300)

That's the thing, there are plenty of good actors

Lex Fridman (1:34:06.020)

within the system who are just trying to stay afloat

Liv Boeree (1:34:07.780)

in the game, so effectively doing monarchy things.

Lex Fridman (1:34:09.820)

But then on top of that, we have actual bad actors

Liv Boeree (1:34:12.540)

who are intentionally trying to, like,

Lex Fridman (1:34:14.980)

manipulate the other side into doing things.

Lex Fridman (1:34:17.420)

And using, so because it's a digital space,

Lex Fridman (1:34:19.660)

they're able to use artificial actors, meaning bots.

Liv Boeree (1:34:24.500)

Exactly, botnets, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:34:26.180)

and this is a whole new situation

Liv Boeree (1:34:29.780)

that we've never had before.

Lex Fridman (1:34:30.900)

Yeah, it's exciting.

Lex Fridman (1:34:32.340)

You know what I want to do?

Lex Fridman (1:34:34.020)

You know what I want to do that,

Liv Boeree (1:34:36.180)

because there is, you know, people are talking about bots

Lex Fridman (1:34:38.140)

manipulating and, like, malicious bots

Liv Boeree (1:34:41.580)

that are basically spreading propaganda.

Lex Fridman (1:34:43.580)

I want to create, like, a bot army for, like,

Lex Fridman (1:34:46.580)

that fights that. For love?

Lex Fridman (1:34:47.620)

Yeah, exactly, for love, that fights, that, I mean.

Liv Boeree (1:34:50.940)

You know, there's, I mean, there's truth

Lex Fridman (1:34:52.220)

to fight fire with fire, it's like,

Lex Fridman (1:34:54.140)

but how you always have to be careful

Lex Fridman (1:34:57.100)

whenever you create, again, like,

Liv Boeree (1:34:59.940)

Moloch is very tricky. Yeah, yeah.

Lex Fridman (1:35:01.860)

Hitler was trying to spread the love, too.

Liv Boeree (1:35:03.740)

Well, yeah, so we thought, but, you know, I agree with you

Lex Fridman (1:35:07.020)

that, like, that is a thing that should be considered,

Lex Fridman (1:35:09.140)

but there is, again, everyone,

Lex Fridman (1:35:11.460)

the road to hell is paved in good intentions.

Lex Fridman (1:35:13.580)

And this is, there's always unforeseen circumstances,

Lex Fridman (1:35:18.100)

you know, outcomes, externalities

Liv Boeree (1:35:20.380)

of you trying to adopt a thing,

Lex Fridman (1:35:21.420)

even if you do it in the very best of faith.

Lex Fridman (1:35:23.580)

But you can learn lessons of history.

Lex Fridman (1:35:25.020)

If you can run some sims on it first, absolutely.

Lex Fridman (1:35:28.540)

But also there's certain aspects of a system,

Lex Fridman (1:35:30.980)

as we've learned through history, that do better than others.

Liv Boeree (1:35:33.980)

Like, for example, don't have a dictator,

Lex Fridman (1:35:36.100)

so, like, if I were to create this bot army,

Liv Boeree (1:35:39.620)

it's not good for me to have full control over it.

Lex Fridman (1:35:42.900)

Because in the beginning, I might have a good understanding

Liv Boeree (1:35:45.340)

of what's good and not, but over time,

Lex Fridman (1:35:47.620)

that starts to get deviated,

Liv Boeree (1:35:49.140)

because I'll get annoyed at some assholes,

Lex Fridman (1:35:50.700)

and I'll think, okay, wouldn't it be nice

Lex Fridman (1:35:52.540)

to get rid of those assholes?

Lex Fridman (1:35:53.980)

But then that power starts getting to your head,

Liv Boeree (1:35:55.660)

you become corrupted, that's basic human nature.

Lex Fridman (1:35:58.020)

So distribute the power somehow.

Liv Boeree (1:35:59.940)

We need a love botnet on a DAO.

Lex Fridman (1:36:05.780)

A DAO love botnet.

Liv Boeree (1:36:07.780)

Yeah, and without a leader, like without...

Lex Fridman (1:36:10.700)

Well, exactly, a distributed, right,

Lex Fridman (1:36:12.340)

but yeah, without any kind of centralized...

Lex Fridman (1:36:14.300)

Yeah, without even, you know,

Liv Boeree (1:36:16.100)

basically it's the more control,

Lex Fridman (1:36:17.500)

the more you can decentralize the control of a thing

Liv Boeree (1:36:21.420)

to people, you know, but the balance...

Lex Fridman (1:36:25.180)

But then you still need the ability to coordinate,

Liv Boeree (1:36:26.700)

because that's the issue when something is too,

Lex Fridman (1:36:29.420)

you know, that's really, to me, like the culture wars,

Liv Boeree (1:36:32.460)

the bigger war we're dealing with is actually between

Lex Fridman (1:36:35.660)

the sort of the, I don't know what even the term is for it,

Lex Fridman (1:36:39.580)

but like centralization versus decentralization.

Lex Fridman (1:36:41.980)

That's the tension we're seeing.

Liv Boeree (1:36:44.100)

Power in control by a few versus completely distributed.

Lex Fridman (1:36:48.220)

And the trouble is if you have a fully centralized thing,

Liv Boeree (1:36:50.860)

then you're at risk of tyranny, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:36:52.700)

Stalin type things can happen, or completely distributed.

Liv Boeree (1:36:56.860)

Now you're at risk of complete anarchy and chaos

Lex Fridman (1:36:58.500)

but you can't even coordinate to like on, you know,

Liv Boeree (1:37:01.100)

when there's like a pandemic or anything like that.

Lex Fridman (1:37:03.220)

So it's like, what is the right balance to strike

Lex Fridman (1:37:05.780)

between these two structures?

Lex Fridman (1:37:08.100)

Can't Moloch really take hold

Lex Fridman (1:37:09.660)

in a fully decentralized system?

Lex Fridman (1:37:11.060)

That's one of the dangers too.

Liv Boeree (1:37:12.500)

Yes, very vulnerable to Moloch.

Lex Fridman (1:37:14.420)

So a dictator can commit huge atrocities,

Lex Fridman (1:37:17.740)

but they can also make sure the infrastructure works

Lex Fridman (1:37:20.980)

and trains run on time.

Liv Boeree (1:37:23.180)

They have that God's eye view at least.

Lex Fridman (1:37:24.820)

They have the ability to create like laws and rules

Liv Boeree (1:37:27.340)

that like force coordination, which stops Moloch.

Lex Fridman (1:37:30.900)

But then you're vulnerable to that dictator

Liv Boeree (1:37:33.260)

getting infected with like this,

Lex Fridman (1:37:34.660)

with some kind of psychopathy type thing.

Lex Fridman (1:37:36.940)

What's reverse Moloch?

Lex Fridman (1:37:39.460)

Sorry, great question.

Lex Fridman (1:37:40.580)

So that's where, so I've been working on this series.

Lex Fridman (1:37:46.220)

It's been driving me insane for the last year and a half.

Liv Boeree (1:37:48.260)

I did the first one a year ago.

Lex Fridman (1:37:50.100)

I can't believe it's nearly been a year.

Liv Boeree (1:37:52.060)

The second one, hopefully will be coming out

Lex Fridman (1:37:53.500)

in like a month.

Lex Fridman (1:37:54.340)

And my goal at the end of the series is to like present,

Lex Fridman (1:37:58.700)

cause basically I'm painting the picture of like

Lex Fridman (1:38:00.180)

what Moloch is and how it's affecting

Lex Fridman (1:38:02.220)

almost all these issues in our society

Lex Fridman (1:38:04.300)

and how it's driving.

Lex Fridman (1:38:06.420)

It's like kind of the generator function

Liv Boeree (1:38:07.940)

as people describe it of existential risk.

Lex Fridman (1:38:11.020)

And then at the end of that.

Liv Boeree (1:38:11.860)

Wait, wait, the generator function of existential risk.

Lex Fridman (1:38:14.180)

So you're saying Moloch is sort of the engine

Liv Boeree (1:38:16.460)

that creates a bunch of X risks.

Lex Fridman (1:38:19.660)

Yes, not all of them.

Liv Boeree (1:38:20.540)

Like a, you know, a.

Lex Fridman (1:38:22.940)

Just a cool phrase, generator function.

Liv Boeree (1:38:24.620)

It's not my phrase.

Lex Fridman (1:38:25.460)

It's Daniel Schmacktenberger.

Liv Boeree (1:38:26.780)

Oh, Schmacktenberger.

Lex Fridman (1:38:27.620)

I got that from him.

Liv Boeree (1:38:28.460)

Of course.

Lex Fridman (1:38:29.300)

All things, it's like all roads lead back

Liv Boeree (1:38:31.380)

to Daniel Schmacktenberger, I think.

Lex Fridman (1:38:32.740)

The dude is, the dude is brilliant.

Liv Boeree (1:38:35.220)

He's really brilliant.

Lex Fridman (1:38:36.060)

After that it's Mark Twain.

Lex Fridman (1:38:37.260)

But anyway, sorry.

Lex Fridman (1:38:39.540)

Totally rude interruptions from me.

Liv Boeree (1:38:41.140)

No, it's fine.

Lex Fridman (1:38:42.020)

So not all X risks.

Lex Fridman (1:38:43.100)

So like an asteroid technically isn't

Lex Fridman (1:38:45.460)

because it's, you know, it's just like

Liv Boeree (1:38:47.940)

this one big external thing.

Lex Fridman (1:38:49.500)

It's not like a competition thing going on.

Liv Boeree (1:38:51.580)

But, you know, synthetic bio, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:38:54.700)

bio weapons, that's one because everyone's incentivized

Liv Boeree (1:38:57.540)

to build, even for defense, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:38:59.740)

bad, bad viruses, you know,

Liv Boeree (1:39:01.460)

just to threaten someone else, et cetera.

Lex Fridman (1:39:03.820)

Or AI, technically the race to AGI

Liv Boeree (1:39:05.820)

is kind of potentially a Molochi situation.

Lex Fridman (1:39:09.620)

But yeah, so if Moloch is this like generator function

Liv Boeree (1:39:15.060)

that's driving all of these issues

Lex Fridman (1:39:16.780)

over the coming century that might wipe us out,

Lex Fridman (1:39:19.100)

what's the inverse?

Lex Fridman (1:39:20.340)

And so far what I've gotten to is this character

Liv Boeree (1:39:24.100)

that I want to put out there called Winwin.

Lex Fridman (1:39:26.660)

Because Moloch is the God of lose, lose, ultimately.

Liv Boeree (1:39:28.660)

It masquerades as the God of win, lose,

Lex Fridman (1:39:30.260)

but in reality it's lose, lose.

Liv Boeree (1:39:31.780)

Everyone ends up worse off.

Lex Fridman (1:39:34.380)

So I was like, well, what's the opposite of that?

Liv Boeree (1:39:35.860)

It's Winwin.

Lex Fridman (1:39:36.700)

And I was thinking for ages, like,

Lex Fridman (1:39:37.660)

what's a good name for this character?

Lex Fridman (1:39:39.740)

And then tomorrow I was like, okay, well,

Liv Boeree (1:39:42.380)

don't try and, you know, think through it logically.

Lex Fridman (1:39:44.700)

What's the vibe of Winwin?

Lex Fridman (1:39:46.540)

And to me, like in my mind, Moloch is like,

Lex Fridman (1:39:49.220)

and I addressed that in the video,

Liv Boeree (1:39:50.580)

like it's red and black.

Lex Fridman (1:39:52.140)

It's kind of like very, you know, hyper focused

Liv Boeree (1:39:55.660)

on it's one goal you must win.

Lex Fridman (1:39:58.660)

So Winwin is kind of actually like these colors.

Liv Boeree (1:40:01.420)

It's like purple, turquoise.

Lex Fridman (1:40:04.140)

It's loves games too.

Liv Boeree (1:40:06.700)

It loves a little bit of healthy competition,

Lex Fridman (1:40:08.420)

but constrained, like kind of like before,

Liv Boeree (1:40:10.100)

like knows how to ring fence zero sum competition

Lex Fridman (1:40:12.860)

into like just the right amount,

Liv Boeree (1:40:14.940)

whereby its externalities can be controlled

Lex Fridman (1:40:17.460)

and kept positive.

Lex Fridman (1:40:19.180)

And then beyond that, it also loves cooperation,

Lex Fridman (1:40:21.260)

coordination, love, all these other things.

Lex Fridman (1:40:23.940)

But it's also kind of like mischievous,

Lex Fridman (1:40:26.780)

like, you know, it will have a good time.

Liv Boeree (1:40:28.500)

It's not like kind of like boring, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:40:30.300)

like, oh God, it knows how to have fun.

Liv Boeree (1:40:33.460)

It can get like, it can get down,

Lex Fridman (1:40:36.020)

but ultimately it's like unbelievably wise

Lex Fridman (1:40:39.740)

and it just wants the game to keep going.

Lex Fridman (1:40:42.740)

And I call it Winwin.

Liv Boeree (1:40:44.580)

That's a good like pet name, Winwin.

Lex Fridman (1:40:47.500)

I think the, Winwin, right?

Lex Fridman (1:40:49.900)

And I think it's formal name when it has to do

Lex Fridman (1:40:51.740)

like official functions is Omnia.

Liv Boeree (1:40:55.020)

Omnia.

Lex Fridman (1:40:55.860)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (1:40:56.700)

From like omniscience kind of, why Omnia?

Lex Fridman (1:40:59.540)

You just like Omnia?

Liv Boeree (1:41:00.380)

She's like Omniwin.

Lex Fridman (1:41:01.220)

Omniwin.

Lex Fridman (1:41:02.060)

But I'm open to suggestions.

Lex Fridman (1:41:02.900)

I would like, you know, and this is.

Liv Boeree (1:41:04.100)

I like Omnia.

Lex Fridman (1:41:05.100)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (1:41:05.940)

But there is an angelic kind of sense to Omnia though.

Lex Fridman (1:41:08.740)

So Winwin is more fun.

Lex Fridman (1:41:09.980)

So it's more like, it embraces the fun aspect.

Lex Fridman (1:41:14.980)

The fun aspect.

Liv Boeree (1:41:16.420)

I mean, there is something about sort of,

Lex Fridman (1:41:20.500)

there's some aspect to Winwin interactions

Liv Boeree (1:41:23.500)

that requires embracing the chaos of the game

Lex Fridman (1:41:31.580)

and enjoying the game itself.

Liv Boeree (1:41:33.740)

I don't know.

Lex Fridman (1:41:34.580)

I don't know what that is.

Liv Boeree (1:41:35.420)

That's almost like a Zen like appreciation

Lex Fridman (1:41:37.660)

of the game itself, not optimizing

Liv Boeree (1:41:40.500)

for the consequences of the game.

Lex Fridman (1:41:42.460)

Right, well, it's recognizing the value

Liv Boeree (1:41:45.260)

of competition in of itself about,

Lex Fridman (1:41:47.180)

it's not like about winning.

Liv Boeree (1:41:48.700)

It's about you enjoying the process of having a competition

Lex Fridman (1:41:51.460)

and not knowing whether you're gonna win

Liv Boeree (1:41:52.620)

or lose this little thing.

Lex Fridman (1:41:53.900)

But then also being aware that, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:41:56.580)

what's the boundary?

Lex Fridman (1:41:57.420)

How big do I want competition to be?

Liv Boeree (1:41:59.020)

Because one of the reason why Moloch is doing so well now

Lex Fridman (1:42:02.660)

in our society, in our civilization is

Liv Boeree (1:42:04.820)

because we haven't been able to ring fence competition.

Lex Fridman (1:42:07.820)

You know, and so it's just having all

Liv Boeree (1:42:09.380)

these negative externalities

Lex Fridman (1:42:10.580)

and it's, we've completely lost control of it.

Liv Boeree (1:42:13.420)

You know, it's, I think my guess is,

Lex Fridman (1:42:16.780)

and now we're getting really like,

Liv Boeree (1:42:18.620)

you know, metaphysical technically,

Lex Fridman (1:42:20.860)

but I think we'll be in a more interesting universe

Liv Boeree (1:42:26.780)

if we have one that has both pure cooperation,

Lex Fridman (1:42:29.700)

you know, lots of cooperation

Lex Fridman (1:42:31.340)

and some pockets of competition

Lex Fridman (1:42:32.980)

than one that's purely competition, cooperation entirely.

Liv Boeree (1:42:36.220)

Like it's good to have some little zero sumness bits,

Lex Fridman (1:42:39.340)

but I don't know that fully

Lex Fridman (1:42:41.500)

and I'm not qualified as a philosopher to know that.

Lex Fridman (1:42:44.100)

And that's what reverse Moloch,

Lex Fridman (1:42:45.460)

so this kind of win, win creature is a system,

Lex Fridman (1:42:49.620)

is an antidote to the Moloch system.

Liv Boeree (1:42:52.140)

Yes.

Lex Fridman (1:42:53.580)

And I don't know how it's gonna do that.

Lex Fridman (1:42:57.620)

But it's good to kind of try to start

Lex Fridman (1:42:59.980)

to formulate different ideas,

Liv Boeree (1:43:01.460)

different frameworks of how we think about that.

Lex Fridman (1:43:03.820)

Exactly.

Liv Boeree (1:43:04.660)

At the small scale of a collection of individuals

Lex Fridman (1:43:07.180)

and a large scale of a society.

Liv Boeree (1:43:09.100)

Exactly.

Lex Fridman (1:43:09.940)

It's a meme, I think it's an example of a good meme.

Lex Fridman (1:43:13.380)

And I'm open, I'd love to hear feedback from people

Lex Fridman (1:43:15.540)

if they think it's, you know, they have a better idea

Liv Boeree (1:43:17.620)

or it's not, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:43:18.460)

but it's the direction of memes that we need to spread,

Liv Boeree (1:43:21.660)

this idea of like, look for the win, wins in life.

Lex Fridman (1:43:25.140)

Well, on the topic of beauty filters,

Lex Fridman (1:43:27.220)

so in that particular context

Lex Fridman (1:43:28.660)

where Moloch creates negative consequences,

Liv Boeree (1:43:35.140)

Dostoevsky said beauty will save the world.

Lex Fridman (1:43:37.180)

What is beauty anyway?

Liv Boeree (1:43:41.260)

It would be nice to just try to discuss

Lex Fridman (1:43:45.340)

what kind of thing we would like to converge towards

Liv Boeree (1:43:49.300)

in our understanding of what is beautiful.

Lex Fridman (1:43:55.900)

So to me, I think something is beautiful

Liv Boeree (1:43:59.220)

when it can't be reduced down to easy metrics.

Lex Fridman (1:44:04.220)

Like if you think of a tree, what is it about a tree,

Lex Fridman (1:44:07.820)

like a big, ancient, beautiful tree, right?

Lex Fridman (1:44:09.420)

What is it about it that we find so beautiful?

Liv Boeree (1:44:11.780)

It's not, you know, the sweetness of its fruit

Lex Fridman (1:44:17.700)

or the value of its lumber.

Liv Boeree (1:44:20.140)

It's this entirety of it that is,

Lex Fridman (1:44:25.940)

there's these immeasurable qualities,

Liv Boeree (1:44:28.020)

it's like almost like a qualia of it.

Lex Fridman (1:44:30.020)

That's both, like it walks this fine line between pattern,

Liv Boeree (1:44:33.340)

well, it's got lots of patternicity,

Lex Fridman (1:44:34.620)

but it's not overly predictable.

Liv Boeree (1:44:36.660)

Again, it walks this fine line between order and chaos.

Lex Fridman (1:44:39.100)

It's a very highly complex system.

Liv Boeree (1:44:45.380)

It's evolving over time,

Lex Fridman (1:44:47.420)

the definition of a complex versus,

Lex Fridman (1:44:49.140)

and this is another Schmackt and Berger thing,

Lex Fridman (1:44:50.860)

a complex versus a complicated system.

Liv Boeree (1:44:53.500)

A complicated system can be sort of broken down

Lex Fridman (1:44:55.660)

into bits and pieces,

Liv Boeree (1:44:56.980)

a complicated system can be sort of broken down into bits,

Lex Fridman (1:45:00.340)

understood and then put back together.

Liv Boeree (1:45:01.980)

A complex system is kind of like a black box.

Lex Fridman (1:45:04.740)

It does all this crazy stuff,

Lex Fridman (1:45:06.700)

but if you take it apart,

Lex Fridman (1:45:07.940)

you can't put it back together again,

Liv Boeree (1:45:09.060)

because there's all these intricacies.

Lex Fridman (1:45:11.540)

And also very importantly, like there's some of the parts,

Liv Boeree (1:45:14.740)

sorry, the sum of the whole is much greater

Lex Fridman (1:45:16.340)

than the sum of the parts.

Lex Fridman (1:45:17.620)

And that's where the beauty lies, I think.

Lex Fridman (1:45:21.100)

And I think that extends to things like art as well.

Liv Boeree (1:45:23.300)

Like there's something immeasurable about it.

Lex Fridman (1:45:27.380)

There's something we can't break down to a narrow metric.

Lex Fridman (1:45:29.740)

Does that extend to humans, you think?

Lex Fridman (1:45:31.580)

Yeah, absolutely.

Lex Fridman (1:45:33.580)

So how can Instagram reveal that kind of beauty,

Lex Fridman (1:45:37.180)

the complexity of a human being?

Liv Boeree (1:45:39.060)

Good question.

Lex Fridman (1:45:41.820)

And this takes us back to dating sites and Goodreads,

Liv Boeree (1:45:44.580)

I think.

Lex Fridman (1:45:46.420)

Very good question.

Liv Boeree (1:45:47.500)

I mean, well, I know what it shouldn't do.

Lex Fridman (1:45:50.020)

It shouldn't try and like, right now,

Liv Boeree (1:45:52.980)

you know, I was talking to like a social media expert

Lex Fridman (1:45:56.180)

recently, because I was like, oh, I hate that.

Lex Fridman (1:45:58.020)

There's such a thing as a social media expert?

Lex Fridman (1:45:59.860)

Oh, yeah, there are like agencies out there

Liv Boeree (1:46:02.020)

that you can like outsource,

Lex Fridman (1:46:03.220)

because I'm thinking about working with one to like,

Liv Boeree (1:46:06.980)

I want to start a podcast.

Lex Fridman (1:46:09.260)

You should, you should have done it a long time ago.

Liv Boeree (1:46:11.860)

Working on it.

Lex Fridman (1:46:12.860)

It's going to be called Win Win.

Lex Fridman (1:46:14.660)

And it's going to be about this like positive sum stuff.

Lex Fridman (1:46:17.420)

And the thing that, you know, they always come back and say,

Liv Boeree (1:46:21.140)

is like, well, you need to like figure out

Lex Fridman (1:46:22.980)

what your thing is.

Liv Boeree (1:46:24.060)

You know, you need to narrow down what your thing is

Lex Fridman (1:46:26.420)

and then just follow that.

Liv Boeree (1:46:27.980)

Have like a sort of a formula,

Lex Fridman (1:46:31.060)

because that's what people want.

Liv Boeree (1:46:32.180)

They want to know that they're coming back

Lex Fridman (1:46:33.220)

to the same thing.

Lex Fridman (1:46:34.260)

And that's the advice on YouTube, Twitter, you name it.

Lex Fridman (1:46:37.420)

And that's why, and the trouble with that

Liv Boeree (1:46:40.180)

is that it's a complexity reduction.

Lex Fridman (1:46:42.460)

And generally speaking, you know,

Liv Boeree (1:46:44.100)

complexity reduction is bad.

Lex Fridman (1:46:45.340)

It's making things more, it's an oversimplification.

Liv Boeree (1:46:48.020)

Not that simplification is always a bad thing.

Lex Fridman (1:46:51.380)

But when you're trying to take, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:46:55.500)

what is social media doing?

Lex Fridman (1:46:56.540)

It's trying to like encapsulate the human experience

Lex Fridman (1:47:00.100)

and put it into digital form and commodify it to an extent.

Lex Fridman (1:47:04.700)

That, so you do that, you compress people down

Liv Boeree (1:47:07.580)

into these like narrow things.

Lex Fridman (1:47:09.500)

And that's why I think it's kind of ultimately

Liv Boeree (1:47:12.700)

fundamentally incompatible with at least

Lex Fridman (1:47:14.460)

my definition of beauty.

Liv Boeree (1:47:15.300)

It's interesting because there is some sense in which

Lex Fridman (1:47:21.020)

a simplification sort of in the Einstein kind of sense

Liv Boeree (1:47:25.180)

of a really complex idea, a simplification in a way

Lex Fridman (1:47:29.300)

that still captures some core power of an idea of a person

Liv Boeree (1:47:33.900)

is also beautiful.

Lex Fridman (1:47:36.100)

And so maybe it's possible for social media to do that.

Liv Boeree (1:47:39.340)

A presentation, a sort of a slither, a slice,

Lex Fridman (1:47:44.340)

a look into a person's life that reveals something

Liv Boeree (1:47:48.420)

real about them.

Lex Fridman (1:47:50.220)

But in a simple way, in a way that can be displayed

Liv Boeree (1:47:52.980)

graphically or through words.

Lex Fridman (1:47:55.340)

Some way, I mean, in some way Twitter can do

Liv Boeree (1:47:58.460)

that kind of thing.

Lex Fridman (1:47:59.700)

A very few set of words can reveal the intricacies

Liv Boeree (1:48:03.540)

of a person.

Lex Fridman (1:48:04.660)

Of course, the viral machine that spreads those words

Liv Boeree (1:48:09.660)

often results in people taking the thing out of context.

Lex Fridman (1:48:14.660)

People often don't read tweets in the context

Liv Boeree (1:48:18.900)

of the human being that wrote them.

Lex Fridman (1:48:20.740)

The full history of the tweets they've written,

Liv Boeree (1:48:24.060)

the education level, the humor level,

Lex Fridman (1:48:26.540)

the world view they're playing around with,

Liv Boeree (1:48:30.380)

all that context is forgotten and people just see

Lex Fridman (1:48:32.460)

the different words.

Lex Fridman (1:48:33.620)

So that can lead to trouble.

Lex Fridman (1:48:35.500)

But in a certain sense, if you do take it in context,

Liv Boeree (1:48:39.780)

it reveals some kind of quirky little beautiful idea

Lex Fridman (1:48:43.260)

or a profound little idea from that particular person

Liv Boeree (1:48:47.180)

that shows something about that person.

Lex Fridman (1:48:48.540)

So in that sense, Twitter can be more successful

Liv Boeree (1:48:51.260)

if we're talking about Mollux is driving

Lex Fridman (1:48:54.060)

a better kind of incentive.

Liv Boeree (1:48:56.940)

Yeah, I mean, how they can, like if we were to rewrite,

Lex Fridman (1:49:01.980)

is there a way to rewrite the Twitter algorithm

Lex Fridman (1:49:05.420)

so that it stops being the fertile breeding ground

Lex Fridman (1:49:11.620)

of the culture wars?

Liv Boeree (1:49:12.460)

Because that's really what it is.

Lex Fridman (1:49:15.300)

I mean, maybe I'm giving it, Twitter too much power,

Lex Fridman (1:49:19.340)

but just the more I looked into it

Lex Fridman (1:49:21.780)

and I had conversations with Tristan Harris

Liv Boeree (1:49:25.620)

from Center of Humane Technology.

Lex Fridman (1:49:27.620)

And he explained it as like,

Liv Boeree (1:49:30.820)

Twitter is where you have this amalgam of human culture

Lex Fridman (1:49:34.100)

and then this terribly designed algorithm

Liv Boeree (1:49:36.180)

that amplifies the craziest people

Lex Fridman (1:49:39.780)

and the angriest most divisive takes and amplifies them.

Lex Fridman (1:49:45.500)

And then the media, the mainstream media,

Lex Fridman (1:49:47.740)

because all the journalists are also on Twitter,

Liv Boeree (1:49:49.860)

they then are informed by that.

Lex Fridman (1:49:52.860)

And so they draw out the stories they can

Liv Boeree (1:49:55.060)

from this already like very boiling lava of rage

Lex Fridman (1:50:00.700)

and then spread that to their millions

Lex Fridman (1:50:03.340)

and millions of people who aren't even on Twitter.

Lex Fridman (1:50:07.020)

And so I honestly, I think if I could press a button,

Liv Boeree (1:50:10.820)

turn them off, I probably would at this point,

Lex Fridman (1:50:13.580)

because I just don't see a way

Liv Boeree (1:50:14.740)

of being compatible with healthiness,

Lex Fridman (1:50:17.300)

but that's not gonna happen.

Lex Fridman (1:50:19.580)

And so at least one way to like stem the tide

Lex Fridman (1:50:23.140)

and make it less malachy would be to change,

Liv Boeree (1:50:29.980)

at least if like it was on a subscription model,

Lex Fridman (1:50:31.900)

then it's now not optimizing for impressions.

Liv Boeree (1:50:36.980)

Cause basically what it wants is for people

Lex Fridman (1:50:38.300)

to keep coming back as often as possible.

Lex Fridman (1:50:40.180)

That's how they get paid, right?

Lex Fridman (1:50:42.020)

Every time an ad gets shown to someone

Lex Fridman (1:50:43.740)

and the way is to get people constantly refreshing their feed.

Lex Fridman (1:50:46.460)

So you're trying to encourage addictive behaviors.

Liv Boeree (1:50:49.380)

Whereas if someone, if they moved on

Lex Fridman (1:50:52.300)

to at least a subscription model,

Liv Boeree (1:50:53.900)

then they're getting the money either way,

Lex Fridman (1:50:56.940)

whether someone comes back to the site once a month

Liv Boeree (1:50:59.140)

or 500 times a month,

Lex Fridman (1:51:01.020)

they get the same amount of money.

Lex Fridman (1:51:02.060)

So now that takes away that incentive,

Lex Fridman (1:51:04.860)

to use technology, to build,

Liv Boeree (1:51:07.220)

to design an algorithm that is maximally addictive.

Lex Fridman (1:51:10.500)

That would be one way, for example.

Liv Boeree (1:51:12.500)

Yeah, but you still want people to,

Lex Fridman (1:51:14.620)

yeah, I just feel like that just slows down,

Liv Boeree (1:51:17.260)

creates friction in the virality of things.

Lex Fridman (1:51:20.940)

But that's good.

Liv Boeree (1:51:22.260)

We need to slow down virality.

Lex Fridman (1:51:24.420)

It's good, it's one way.

Liv Boeree (1:51:26.580)

Virality is malach, to be clear.

Lex Fridman (1:51:28.900)

So malach is always negative then?

Liv Boeree (1:51:34.300)

Yes, by definition.

Lex Fridman (1:51:36.500)

Yes.

Liv Boeree (1:51:37.340)

Competition is not always negative.

Lex Fridman (1:51:39.460)

Competition is neutral.

Liv Boeree (1:51:40.540)

I disagree with you that all virality is negative then,

Lex Fridman (1:51:44.180)

is malach then.

Liv Boeree (1:51:45.940)

Because it's a good intuition,

Lex Fridman (1:51:49.500)

because we have a lot of data on virality being negative.

Lex Fridman (1:51:52.900)

But I happen to believe that the core of human beings,

Lex Fridman (1:51:57.100)

so most human beings want to be good

Liv Boeree (1:52:00.380)

more than they want to be bad to each other.

Lex Fridman (1:52:03.340)

And so I think it's possible,

Liv Boeree (1:52:05.700)

it might be just harder to engineer systems

Lex Fridman (1:52:09.060)

that enable virality,

Lex Fridman (1:52:10.540)

but it's possible to engineer systems that are viral

Lex Fridman (1:52:13.860)

that enable virality.

Lex Fridman (1:52:15.700)

And the kind of stuff that rises to the top

Lex Fridman (1:52:19.140)

is things that are positive.

Lex Fridman (1:52:21.260)

And positive, not like la la positive,

Lex Fridman (1:52:24.180)

it's more like win win,

Liv Boeree (1:52:25.820)

meaning a lot of people need to be challenged.

Lex Fridman (1:52:28.380)

Wise things, yes.

Liv Boeree (1:52:29.620)

You grow from it, it might challenge you,

Lex Fridman (1:52:31.460)

you might not like it, but you ultimately grow from it.

Lex Fridman (1:52:34.740)

And ultimately bring people together

Lex Fridman (1:52:36.700)

as opposed to tear them apart.

Liv Boeree (1:52:38.460)

I deeply want that to be true.

Lex Fridman (1:52:40.540)

And I very much agree with you that people at their core

Liv Boeree (1:52:43.740)

are on average good, care for each other,

Lex Fridman (1:52:46.140)

as opposed to not.

Liv Boeree (1:52:46.980)

Like I think it's actually a very small percentage

Lex Fridman (1:52:50.540)

of people are truly wanting to do

Liv Boeree (1:52:52.900)

just like destructive malicious things.

Lex Fridman (1:52:54.420)

Most people are just trying to win their own little game.

Lex Fridman (1:52:56.500)

And they don't mean to be,

Lex Fridman (1:52:57.900)

they're just stuck in this badly designed system.

Liv Boeree (1:53:01.980)

That said, the current structure, yes,

Lex Fridman (1:53:04.620)

is the current structure means that virality

Liv Boeree (1:53:09.140)

is optimized towards Moloch.

Lex Fridman (1:53:10.780)

That doesn't mean there aren't exceptions.

Liv Boeree (1:53:12.380)

Sometimes positive stories do go viral

Lex Fridman (1:53:14.060)

and I think we should study them.

Liv Boeree (1:53:15.140)

I think there should be a whole field of study

Lex Fridman (1:53:17.060)

into understanding, identifying memes

Liv Boeree (1:53:20.340)

that above a certain threshold of the population

Lex Fridman (1:53:24.020)

agree is a positive, happy, bringing people together meme.

Liv Boeree (1:53:27.340)

The kind of thing that brings families together

Lex Fridman (1:53:29.860)

that would normally argue about cultural stuff

Liv Boeree (1:53:31.700)

at the table, at the dinner table.

Lex Fridman (1:53:34.820)

Identify those memes and figure out what it was,

Lex Fridman (1:53:37.420)

what was the ingredient that made them spread that day.

Lex Fridman (1:53:41.380)

And also like not just like happiness

Lex Fridman (1:53:44.740)

and connection between humans,

Lex Fridman (1:53:45.940)

but connection between humans in other ways

Liv Boeree (1:53:49.580)

that enables like productivity, like cooperation,

Lex Fridman (1:53:52.700)

solving difficult problems and all those kinds of stuff.

Lex Fridman (1:53:56.180)

So it's not just about let's be happy

Lex Fridman (1:53:59.020)

and have a fulfilling lives.

Liv Boeree (1:54:00.820)

It's also like, let's build cool shit.

Lex Fridman (1:54:03.260)

Let's get excited.

Liv Boeree (1:54:04.100)

Which is the spirit of collaboration,

Lex Fridman (1:54:05.100)

which is deeply anti Moloch, right?

Liv Boeree (1:54:06.700)

That's, it's not using competition.

Lex Fridman (1:54:09.300)

It's like, Moloch hates collaboration and coordination

Lex Fridman (1:54:13.140)

and people working together.

Lex Fridman (1:54:14.580)

And that's, again, like the internet started out as that

Lex Fridman (1:54:18.060)

and it could have been that,

Lex Fridman (1:54:20.660)

but because of the way it was sort of structured

Liv Boeree (1:54:23.380)

in terms of, you know, very lofty ideal,

Lex Fridman (1:54:26.860)

they wanted everything to be open source,

Liv Boeree (1:54:28.980)

open source and also free.

Lex Fridman (1:54:30.620)

And, but they needed to find a way to pay the bills anyway,

Liv Boeree (1:54:32.820)

because they were still building this

Lex Fridman (1:54:33.860)

on top of our old economics system.

Lex Fridman (1:54:36.300)

And so the way they did that

Lex Fridman (1:54:37.620)

was through third party advertisement.

Lex Fridman (1:54:40.260)

But that meant that things were very decoupled.

Lex Fridman (1:54:42.780)

You know, you've got this third party interest,

Liv Boeree (1:54:45.620)

which means that you're then like,

Lex Fridman (1:54:47.460)

people having to optimize for that.

Lex Fridman (1:54:48.980)

And that is, you know, the actual consumer

Lex Fridman (1:54:51.300)

is actually the product,

Liv Boeree (1:54:52.980)

not the person you're making the thing for.

Lex Fridman (1:54:56.940)

In the end, you start making the thing for the advertiser.

Lex Fridman (1:54:59.820)

And so that's why it then like breaks down.

Lex Fridman (1:55:03.660)

Yeah, like it's, there's no clean solution to this.

Lex Fridman (1:55:08.260)

And I, it's a really good suggestion by you actually

Lex Fridman (1:55:11.140)

to like figure out how we can optimize virality

Liv Boeree (1:55:16.100)

for positive sum topics.

Lex Fridman (1:55:19.540)

I shall be the general of the love bot army.

Liv Boeree (1:55:24.900)

Distributed.

Lex Fridman (1:55:26.220)

Distributed, distributed, no, okay, yeah.

Liv Boeree (1:55:28.420)

The power, just even in saying that,

Lex Fridman (1:55:30.220)

the power already went to my head.

Liv Boeree (1:55:32.220)

No, okay, you've talked about quantifying your thinking.

Lex Fridman (1:55:35.940)

We've been talking about this,

Liv Boeree (1:55:36.980)

sort of a game theoretic view on life

Lex Fridman (1:55:39.340)

and putting probabilities behind estimates.

Liv Boeree (1:55:42.260)

Like if you think about different trajectories

Lex Fridman (1:55:44.260)

you can take through life,

Liv Boeree (1:55:45.660)

just actually analyzing life in game theoretic way,

Lex Fridman (1:55:48.340)

like your own life, like personal life.

Liv Boeree (1:55:50.820)

I think you've given an example

Lex Fridman (1:55:52.820)

that you had an honest conversation with Igor

Lex Fridman (1:55:54.700)

about like, how long is this relationship gonna last?

Lex Fridman (1:55:57.780)

So similar to our sort of marriage problem

Liv Boeree (1:56:00.140)

kind of discussion, having an honest conversation

Lex Fridman (1:56:03.180)

about the probability of things

Liv Boeree (1:56:05.620)

that we sometimes are a little bit too shy

Lex Fridman (1:56:08.580)

or scared to think of in a probabilistic terms.

Lex Fridman (1:56:11.820)

Can you speak to that kind of way of reasoning,

Lex Fridman (1:56:15.060)

the good and the bad of that?

Lex Fridman (1:56:17.020)

Can you do this kind of thing with human relations?

Lex Fridman (1:56:20.900)

Yeah, so the scenario you're talking about, it was like.

Liv Boeree (1:56:25.020)

Yeah, tell me about that scenario.

Lex Fridman (1:56:26.020)

Yeah, I think it was about a year into our relationship

Lex Fridman (1:56:30.900)

and we were having a fairly heavy conversation

Lex Fridman (1:56:34.500)

because we were trying to figure out

Liv Boeree (1:56:35.460)

whether or not I was gonna sell my apartment.

Lex Fridman (1:56:37.580)

Well, you know, he had already moved in,

Lex Fridman (1:56:40.180)

but I think we were just figuring out

Lex Fridman (1:56:41.780)

what like our longterm plans would be.

Liv Boeree (1:56:43.660)

We should be by a place together, et cetera.

Lex Fridman (1:56:46.340)

When you guys are having that conversation,

Liv Boeree (1:56:47.700)

are you like drunk out of your mind on wine

Lex Fridman (1:56:49.820)

or is he sober and you're actually having a serious?

Liv Boeree (1:56:52.780)

I think we were sober.

Lex Fridman (1:56:53.700)

How do you get to that conversation?

Liv Boeree (1:56:54.940)

Because most people are kind of afraid

Lex Fridman (1:56:56.180)

to have that kind of serious conversation.

Liv Boeree (1:56:58.780)

Well, so our relationship was very,

Lex Fridman (1:57:01.540)

well, first of all, we were good friends

Liv Boeree (1:57:03.360)

for a couple of years before we even got romantic.

Lex Fridman (1:57:08.340)

And when we did get romantic,

Liv Boeree (1:57:12.460)

it was very clear that this was a big deal.

Lex Fridman (1:57:15.780)

It wasn't just like another, it wasn't a random thing.

Lex Fridman (1:57:20.420)

So the probability of it being a big deal was high.

Lex Fridman (1:57:22.900)

It was already very high.

Lex Fridman (1:57:24.220)

And then we'd been together for a year

Lex Fridman (1:57:26.220)

and it had been pretty golden and wonderful.

Liv Boeree (1:57:28.820)

So, you know, there was a lot of foundation already

Lex Fridman (1:57:32.620)

where we felt very comfortable

Liv Boeree (1:57:33.820)

having a lot of frank conversations.

Lex Fridman (1:57:35.220)

But Igor's MO has always been much more than mine.

Liv Boeree (1:57:38.460)

He was always from the outset,

Lex Fridman (1:57:39.980)

like just in a relationship,

Liv Boeree (1:57:42.600)

radical transparency and honesty is the way

Lex Fridman (1:57:45.340)

because the truth is the truth,

Liv Boeree (1:57:47.100)

whether you want to hide it or not, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:57:48.420)

but it will come out eventually.

Lex Fridman (1:57:50.300)

And if you aren't able to accept difficult things yourself,

Lex Fridman (1:57:56.540)

then how could you possibly expect to be like

Liv Boeree (1:57:58.540)

the most integral version that, you know,

Lex Fridman (1:58:00.420)

you can't, the relationship needs this bedrock

Liv Boeree (1:58:02.940)

of like honesty as a foundation more than anything.

Lex Fridman (1:58:06.620)

Yeah, that's really interesting,

Lex Fridman (1:58:07.700)

but I would like to push against some of those ideas,

Lex Fridman (1:58:09.960)

but that's the down the line, yes, throw them up.

Liv Boeree (1:58:13.780)

I just rudely interrupt.

Lex Fridman (1:58:15.260)

That was fine.

Lex Fridman (1:58:16.780)

And so, you know, we'd been about together for a year

Lex Fridman (1:58:19.860)

and things were good

Lex Fridman (1:58:20.700)

and we were having this hard conversation

Lex Fridman (1:58:23.460)

and then he was like, well, okay,

Liv Boeree (1:58:25.300)

what's the likelihood that we're going to be together

Lex Fridman (1:58:27.300)

in three years then?

Liv Boeree (1:58:28.300)

Because I think it was roughly a three year time horizon.

Lex Fridman (1:58:31.060)

And I was like, ooh, ooh, interesting.

Lex Fridman (1:58:32.900)

And then we were like, actually wait,

Lex Fridman (1:58:34.260)

before you said out loud,

Liv Boeree (1:58:35.100)

let's both write down our predictions formally

Lex Fridman (1:58:37.760)

because we'd been like,

Liv Boeree (1:58:38.600)

we're just getting into like effective altruism

Lex Fridman (1:58:40.460)

and rationality at the time,

Liv Boeree (1:58:41.860)

which is all about making formal predictions

Lex Fridman (1:58:43.900)

as a means of measuring your own,

Liv Boeree (1:58:48.980)

well, your own foresight essentially in a quantified way.

Lex Fridman (1:58:53.700)

So we like both wrote down our percentages

Lex Fridman (1:58:55.500)

and we also did a one year prediction

Lex Fridman (1:58:58.660)

and a 10 year one as well.

Lex Fridman (1:58:59.600)

So we got percentages for all three

Lex Fridman (1:59:02.000)

and then we showed each other.

Lex Fridman (1:59:03.900)

And I remember like having this moment of like, ooh,

Lex Fridman (1:59:06.260)

because for the 10 year one, I was like, well, I mean,

Liv Boeree (1:59:08.760)

I love him a lot,

Lex Fridman (1:59:09.600)

but like a lot can happen in 10 years,

Lex Fridman (1:59:11.800)

and we've only been together for,

Lex Fridman (1:59:14.260)

so I was like, I think it's over 50%,

Lex Fridman (1:59:16.220)

but it's definitely not 90%.

Lex Fridman (1:59:17.900)

And I remember like wrestling,

Liv Boeree (1:59:19.020)

I was like, oh, but I don't want him to be hurt.

Lex Fridman (1:59:20.220)

I don't want him to,

Liv Boeree (1:59:21.400)

I don't want to give a number lower than his.

Lex Fridman (1:59:22.700)

And I remember thinking, I was like, ah, ah, don't game it.

Liv Boeree (1:59:25.260)

This is an exercise in radical honesty.

Lex Fridman (1:59:28.100)

So just give your real percentage.

Lex Fridman (1:59:29.500)

And I think mine was like 75%.

Lex Fridman (1:59:31.300)

And then we showed each other

Lex Fridman (1:59:32.400)

and luckily we were fairly well aligned.

Lex Fridman (1:59:34.900)

And, but honestly, even if we weren't.

Liv Boeree (1:59:38.640)

20%.

Lex Fridman (1:59:39.480)

Huh?

Liv Boeree (1:59:40.320)

It definitely would have,

Lex Fridman (1:59:41.940)

I, if his had been consistently lower than mine,

Liv Boeree (1:59:45.540)

that would have rattled me for sure.

Lex Fridman (1:59:48.140)

Whereas if it had been the other way around,

Liv Boeree (1:59:49.920)

I think he would have,

Lex Fridman (1:59:50.740)

he's just kind of like a water off a duck's back type of guy.

Liv Boeree (1:59:53.000)

It'd be like, okay, well, all right, we'll figure this out.

Lex Fridman (1:59:55.240)

Well, did you guys provide error bars on the estimate?

Lex Fridman (1:59:57.880)

Like the level of uncertainty?

Lex Fridman (1:59:58.760)

They came built in.

Liv Boeree (1:59:59.600)

We didn't give formal plus or minus error bars.

Lex Fridman (20:00.300)

Well, not even that, but it's just like so much information,

Liv Boeree (20:03.940)

really high quality information,

Lex Fridman (20:05.260)

you know, it's now in digital format online.

Liv Boeree (20:08.420)

Yeah, but they're not, they are using that,

Lex Fridman (20:10.340)

but you know, college is still very, there's a curriculum.

Liv Boeree (20:15.340)

I mean, so much of school is about rigorous study

Lex Fridman (20:18.860)

of a subject and still on YouTube, that's not there.

Liv Boeree (20:22.820)

Right. YouTube has,

Lex Fridman (20:23.900)

YouTube has, Grant Sanderson talks about this.

Liv Boeree (20:27.700)

He's this math...

Lex Fridman (20:29.180)

3Blue1Brown.

Liv Boeree (20:30.060)

Yeah, 3Blue1Brown.

Lex Fridman (20:31.660)

He says like, I'm not a math teacher.

Liv Boeree (20:33.860)

I just take really cool concepts and I inspire people.

Lex Fridman (20:37.740)

But if you wanna really learn calculus,

Liv Boeree (20:39.460)

if you wanna really learn linear algebra,

Lex Fridman (20:41.820)

you should do the textbook.

Liv Boeree (20:43.540)

You should do that, you know.

Lex Fridman (20:45.220)

And there's still the textbook industrial complex

Liv Boeree (20:48.980)

that like charges like $200 for textbook and somehow,

Lex Fridman (20:53.340)

I don't know, it's ridiculous.

Liv Boeree (20:56.580)

Well, they're like, oh, sorry, new edition, edition 14.6.

Lex Fridman (21:00.540)

Sorry, you can't use 14.5 anymore.

Lex Fridman (21:02.860)

It's like, what's different?

Lex Fridman (21:03.700)

We've got one paragraph different.

Lex Fridman (21:05.340)

So we mentioned offline, Daniel Negrano.

Lex Fridman (21:08.900)

I'm gonna get a chance to talk to him on this podcast.

Lex Fridman (21:11.620)

And he's somebody that I found fascinating

Lex Fridman (21:14.380)

in terms of the way he thinks about poker,

Liv Boeree (21:16.540)

verbalizes the way he thinks about poker,

Lex Fridman (21:18.580)

the way he plays poker.

Liv Boeree (21:20.180)

So, and he's still pretty damn good.

Lex Fridman (21:22.860)

He's been good for a long time.

Lex Fridman (21:24.900)

So you mentioned that people are running

Lex Fridman (21:27.300)

these kinds of simulations and the game of poker has changed.

Lex Fridman (21:30.540)

Do you think he's adapting in this way?

Lex Fridman (21:33.420)

Like the top pros, do they have to adopt this way?

Liv Boeree (21:36.540)

Or is there still like over the years,

Lex Fridman (21:41.700)

you basically develop this gut feeling about,

Liv Boeree (21:45.300)

like you get to be like good the way,

Lex Fridman (21:48.580)

like alpha zero is good.

Liv Boeree (21:49.780)

You look at the board and somehow from the fog

Lex Fridman (21:54.180)

comes out the right answer.

Liv Boeree (21:55.380)

Like this is likely what they have.

Lex Fridman (21:58.020)

This is likely the best way to move.

Lex Fridman (22:00.460)

And you don't really, you can't really put a finger

Lex Fridman (22:03.100)

on exactly why, but it just comes from your gut feeling.

Lex Fridman (22:08.260)

Or no?

Lex Fridman (22:09.100)

Yes and no.

Lex Fridman (22:10.580)

So gut feelings are definitely very important.

Lex Fridman (22:14.740)

You know, that we've got our two,

Liv Boeree (22:16.980)

you can distill it down to two modes

Lex Fridman (22:18.180)

of decision making, right?

Liv Boeree (22:19.100)

You've got your sort of logical linear voice in your head,

Lex Fridman (22:22.180)

system two, as it's often called,

Lex Fridman (22:24.100)

and your system one, your gut intuition.

Lex Fridman (22:29.020)

And historically in poker,

Liv Boeree (22:32.420)

the very best players were playing

Lex Fridman (22:34.380)

almost entirely by their gut.

Liv Boeree (22:37.140)

You know, often they do some kind of inspired play

Lex Fridman (22:39.300)

and you'd ask them why they do it

Lex Fridman (22:40.500)

and they wouldn't really be able to explain it.

Lex Fridman (22:43.020)

And that's not so much because their process

Liv Boeree (22:46.500)

was unintelligible, but it was more just because

Lex Fridman (22:48.620)

no one had the language with which to describe

Lex Fridman (22:51.220)

what optimal strategies were

Lex Fridman (22:52.420)

because no one really understood how poker worked.

Liv Boeree (22:54.340)

This was before, you know, we had analysis software.

Lex Fridman (22:57.620)

You know, no one was writing,

Liv Boeree (22:59.940)

I guess some people would write down their hands

Lex Fridman (23:01.540)

in a little notebook,

Lex Fridman (23:02.740)

but there was no way to assimilate all this data

Lex Fridman (23:04.620)

and analyze it.

Lex Fridman (23:05.980)

But then, you know, when computers became cheaper

Lex Fridman (23:08.540)

and software started emerging,

Lex Fridman (23:09.980)

and then obviously online poker,

Lex Fridman (23:11.540)

where it would like automatically save your hand histories.

Liv Boeree (23:14.260)

Now, all of a sudden you kind of had this body of data

Lex Fridman (23:17.100)

that you could run analysis on.

Lex Fridman (23:19.620)

And so that's when people started to see, you know,

Lex Fridman (23:22.180)

these mathematical solutions.

Lex Fridman (23:26.780)

And so what that meant is the role of intuition

Lex Fridman (23:32.500)

essentially became smaller.

Lex Fridman (23:35.540)

And it went more into, as we talked before about,

Lex Fridman (23:38.660)

you know, this game theory optimal style.

Lex Fridman (23:40.620)

But also, as I said, like game theory optimal

Lex Fridman (23:43.340)

is about loss minimization and being unexploitable.

Lex Fridman (23:47.740)

But if you're playing against people who aren't,

Lex Fridman (23:49.620)

because no person, no human being can play perfectly

Liv Boeree (23:51.620)

game theory optimal in poker, not even the best AIs.

Lex Fridman (23:54.020)

They're still like, you know,

Liv Boeree (23:55.460)

they're 99.99% of the way there or whatever,

Lex Fridman (23:57.540)

but it's kind of like the speed of light.

Liv Boeree (23:59.260)

You can't reach it perfectly.

Lex Fridman (24:01.060)

So there's still a role for intuition?

Liv Boeree (24:03.780)

Yes, so when, yeah,

Lex Fridman (24:05.780)

when you're playing this unexploitable style,

Lex Fridman (24:08.460)

but when your opponents start doing something,

Lex Fridman (24:11.420)

you know, suboptimal that you want to exploit,

Liv Boeree (24:14.140)

well, now that's where not only your like logical brain

Lex Fridman (24:17.340)

will need to be thinking, well, okay,

Liv Boeree (24:18.700)

I know I have this, I'm in the sort of top end

Lex Fridman (24:21.300)

of my range here with this hand.

Lex Fridman (24:23.940)

So that means I need to be calling X percent of the time

Lex Fridman (24:27.780)

and I put them on this range, et cetera.

Lex Fridman (24:30.460)

But then sometimes you'll have this gut feeling

Lex Fridman (24:34.020)

that will tell you, you know what, this time,

Liv Boeree (24:37.300)

I know mathematically I'm meant to call now.

Lex Fridman (24:40.060)

You know, I'm in the sort of top end of my range

Lex Fridman (24:42.740)

and this is the odds I'm getting.

Lex Fridman (24:45.140)

So the math says I should call,

Lex Fridman (24:46.300)

but there's something in your gut saying,

Lex Fridman (24:48.340)

they've got it this time, they've got it.

Liv Boeree (24:49.940)

Like they're beating you, your hand is worse.

Lex Fridman (24:55.180)

So then the real art,

Liv Boeree (24:56.940)

this is where the last remaining art in poker,

Lex Fridman (24:59.620)

the fuzziness is like, do you listen to your gut?

Lex Fridman (25:03.660)

How do you quantify the strength of it?

Lex Fridman (25:06.100)

Or can you even quantify the strength of it?

Lex Fridman (25:08.340)

And I think that's what Daniel has.

Lex Fridman (25:13.100)

I mean, I can't speak for how much he's studying

Liv Boeree (25:15.340)

with the simulators and that kind of thing.

Lex Fridman (25:17.740)

I think he has, like he must be to still be keeping up.

Lex Fridman (25:22.260)

But he has an incredible intuition for just,

Lex Fridman (25:26.340)

he's seen so many hands of poker in the flesh.

Liv Boeree (25:29.180)

He's seen so many people, the way they behave

Lex Fridman (25:31.860)

when the chips are, you know, when the money's on the line

Lex Fridman (25:33.740)

and he've got him staring you down in the eye.

Lex Fridman (25:36.100)

You know, he's intimidating.

Liv Boeree (25:37.460)

He's got this like kind of X factor vibe

Lex Fridman (25:39.620)

that he, you know, gives out.

Lex Fridman (25:42.180)

And he talks a lot, which is an interactive element,

Lex Fridman (25:45.020)

which is he's getting stuff from other people.

Liv Boeree (25:47.180)

Yes, yeah.

Lex Fridman (25:48.020)

And just like the subtlety.

Lex Fridman (25:49.340)

So he's like, he's probing constantly.

Lex Fridman (25:51.460)

Yeah, he's probing and he's getting this extra layer

Liv Boeree (25:53.900)

of information that others can't.

Lex Fridman (25:55.940)

Now that said though, he's good online as well.

Liv Boeree (25:57.900)

You know, I don't know how, again,

Lex Fridman (25:59.660)

would he be beating the top cash game players online?

Liv Boeree (26:02.660)

Probably not, no.

Lex Fridman (26:03.900)

But when he's in person and he's got that additional

Liv Boeree (26:07.260)

layer of information, he can not only extract it,

Lex Fridman (26:09.700)

but he knows what to do with it still so well.

Liv Boeree (26:13.140)

There's one player who I would say is the exception

Lex Fridman (26:15.140)

to all of this.

Lex Fridman (26:16.980)

And he's one of my favorite people to talk about

Lex Fridman (26:18.940)

in terms of, I think he might have cracked the simulation.

Liv Boeree (26:23.460)

It's Phil Helmuth.

Lex Fridman (26:25.540)

He...

Liv Boeree (26:27.060)

In more ways than one, he's cracked the simulation,

Lex Fridman (26:29.140)

I think.

Liv Boeree (26:29.980)

Yeah, he somehow to this day is still

Lex Fridman (26:33.700)

and I love you Phil, I'm not in any way knocking you.

Liv Boeree (26:37.500)

He is still winning so much at the World Series

Lex Fridman (26:41.220)

of Poker specifically.

Liv Boeree (26:43.100)

He's now won 16 bracelets.

Lex Fridman (26:44.780)

The next nearest person I think has won 10.

Lex Fridman (26:47.660)

And he is consistently year in, year out going deep

Lex Fridman (26:50.100)

or winning these huge field tournaments,

Liv Boeree (26:52.420)

you know, with like 2000 people,

Lex Fridman (26:54.580)

which statistically he should not be doing.

Lex Fridman (26:57.060)

And yet you watch some of the plays he makes

Lex Fridman (27:02.060)

and they make no sense, like mathematically,

Liv Boeree (27:04.260)

they are so far from game theory optimal.

Lex Fridman (27:07.020)

And the thing is, if you went and stuck him

Liv Boeree (27:08.540)

in one of these high stakes cash games

Lex Fridman (27:10.860)

with a bunch of like GTO people,

Liv Boeree (27:12.740)

he's gonna get ripped apart.

Lex Fridman (27:14.540)

But there's something that he has that when he's

Liv Boeree (27:16.500)

in the halls of the World Series of Poker specifically,

Lex Fridman (27:20.420)

amongst sort of amateurish players,

Liv Boeree (27:23.340)

he gets them to do crazy shit like that.

Lex Fridman (27:26.340)

And, but my little pet theory is that also,

Liv Boeree (27:30.540)

he just, the card, he's like a wizard

Lex Fridman (27:35.100)

and he gets the cards to do what he needs them to.

Liv Boeree (27:38.980)

Because he just expects to win and he expects to receive,

Lex Fridman (27:43.980)

you know, to get flopper set with a frequency far beyond

Lex Fridman (27:47.300)

what the real percentages are.

Lex Fridman (27:50.780)

And I don't even know if he knows what the real percentages

Liv Boeree (27:52.500)

are, he doesn't need to, because he gets there.

Lex Fridman (27:54.700)

I think he has found the Chico,

Liv Boeree (27:55.980)

because when I've seen him play,

Lex Fridman (27:57.380)

he seems to be like annoyed that the long shot thing

Liv Boeree (28:01.300)

didn't happen.

Lex Fridman (28:02.140)

He's like annoyed and it's almost like everybody else

Liv Boeree (28:05.820)

is stupid because he was obviously going to win

Lex Fridman (28:08.020)

with the spare.

Liv Boeree (28:08.860)

If that silly thing hadn't happened.

Lex Fridman (28:10.540)

And it's like, you don't understand,

Liv Boeree (28:11.460)

the silly thing happens 99% of the time.

Lex Fridman (28:13.940)

And it's a 1%, not the other way around,

Lex Fridman (28:15.700)

but genuinely for his lived experience at the World Series,

Lex Fridman (28:18.580)

only at the World Series of Poker, it is like that.

Lex Fridman (28:21.540)

So I don't blame him for feeling that way.

Lex Fridman (28:24.020)

But he does, he has this X factor

Lex Fridman (28:26.460)

and the poker community has tried for years

Lex Fridman (28:29.940)

to rip him down saying like, he's no good,

Lex Fridman (28:32.740)

but he's clearly good because he's still winning

Lex Fridman (28:34.540)

or there's something going on.

Liv Boeree (28:36.220)

Whether that's he's figured out how to mess

Lex Fridman (28:39.140)

with the fabric of reality and how cards,

Liv Boeree (28:42.580)

a randomly shuffled deck of cards come out.

Lex Fridman (28:44.300)

I don't know what it is, but he's doing it right still.

Lex Fridman (28:46.660)

Who do you think is the greatest of all time?

Lex Fridman (28:48.700)

Would you put Hellmuth?

Liv Boeree (28:52.340)

Not Hellmuth definitely, he seems like the kind of person

Lex Fridman (28:54.660)

when mentioned he would actually watch this.

Lex Fridman (28:56.460)

So you might wanna be careful.

Lex Fridman (28:58.380)

Well, as I said, I love Phil and I have,

Liv Boeree (29:02.420)

I would say this to his face, I'm not saying anything.

Lex Fridman (29:04.180)

I don't, he's got, he truly, I mean,

Liv Boeree (29:06.980)

he is one of the greatest.

Lex Fridman (29:09.540)

I don't know if he's the greatest,

Liv Boeree (29:10.980)

he's certainly the greatest at the World Series of Poker.

Lex Fridman (29:14.300)

And he is the greatest at, despite the game switching

Liv Boeree (29:17.980)

into a pure game, almost an entire game of math,

Lex Fridman (29:20.900)

he has managed to keep the magic alive.

Lex Fridman (29:22.860)

And this like, just through sheer force of will,

Lex Fridman (29:26.020)

making the game work for him.

Lex Fridman (29:27.620)

And that is incredible.

Lex Fridman (29:28.660)

And I think it's something that should be studied

Liv Boeree (29:30.460)

because it's an example.

Lex Fridman (29:32.020)

Yeah, there might be some actual game theoretic wisdom.

Liv Boeree (29:35.260)

There might be something to be said about optimality

Lex Fridman (29:37.420)

from studying him.

Lex Fridman (29:39.220)

What do you mean by optimality?

Lex Fridman (29:40.940)

Meaning, or rather game design, perhaps.

Liv Boeree (29:45.540)

Meaning if what he's doing is working,

Lex Fridman (29:48.460)

maybe poker is more complicated

Liv Boeree (29:51.620)

than the one we're currently modeling it as.

Lex Fridman (29:54.220)

So like his, yeah.

Liv Boeree (29:55.060)

Or there's an extra layer,

Lex Fridman (29:56.660)

and I don't mean to get too weird and wooey,

Liv Boeree (29:59.500)

but, or there's an extra layer of ability

Lex Fridman (2:00:02.220)

I didn't draw any or anything like that.

Liv Boeree (2:00:03.560)

Well, I guess that's the question I have is,

Lex Fridman (2:00:05.680)

did you feel informed enough to make such decisions?

Liv Boeree (2:00:12.320)

Cause like, I feel like if you were,

Lex Fridman (2:00:13.920)

if I were to do this kind of thing rigorously,

Liv Boeree (2:00:17.360)

I would want some data.

Lex Fridman (2:00:20.520)

I would want to set one of the assumptions you have

Liv Boeree (2:00:23.080)

is you're not that different from other relationships.

Lex Fridman (2:00:25.360)

Right.

Lex Fridman (2:00:26.200)

And so I want to have some data about the way.

Lex Fridman (2:00:29.360)

You want the base rates.

Liv Boeree (2:00:30.680)

Yeah, and also actual trajectories of relationships.

Lex Fridman (2:00:34.400)

I would love to have like time series data

Liv Boeree (2:00:39.080)

about the ways that relationships fall apart or prosper,

Lex Fridman (2:00:43.720)

how they collide with different life events,

Liv Boeree (2:00:46.700)

losses, job changes, moving.

Lex Fridman (2:00:50.000)

Both partners find jobs, only one has a job.

Liv Boeree (2:00:54.520)

I want that kind of data

Lex Fridman (2:00:56.320)

and how often the different trajectories change in life.

Lex Fridman (2:00:58.960)

Like how informative is your past to your future?

Lex Fridman (2:01:04.400)

That's the whole thing.

Liv Boeree (2:01:05.240)

Like can you look at my life and have a good prediction

Lex Fridman (2:01:09.800)

about in terms of my characteristics and my relationships,

Lex Fridman (2:01:13.560)

what that's going to look like in the future or not?

Lex Fridman (2:01:15.880)

I don't even know the answer to that question.

Liv Boeree (2:01:17.200)

I'll be very ill informed in terms of making the probability.

Lex Fridman (2:01:20.740)

I would be far, yeah, I just would be under informed.

Liv Boeree (2:01:25.680)

I would be under informed.

Lex Fridman (2:01:26.680)

I'll be over biasing to my prior experiences, I think.

Liv Boeree (2:01:31.240)

Right, but as long as you're aware of that

Lex Fridman (2:01:33.120)

and you're honest with yourself,

Lex Fridman (2:01:34.480)

and you're honest with the other person,

Lex Fridman (2:01:35.760)

say, look, I have really wide error bars on this

Liv Boeree (2:01:37.640)

for the following reasons, that's okay.

Lex Fridman (2:01:40.440)

I still think it's better than not trying

Liv Boeree (2:01:42.040)

to quantify it at all.

Lex Fridman (2:01:43.200)

If you're trying to make really major

Liv Boeree (2:01:45.220)

irreversible life decisions.

Lex Fridman (2:01:46.760)

And I feel also the romantic nature of that question

Liv Boeree (2:01:49.480)

for me personally, I try to live my life

Lex Fridman (2:01:52.800)

thinking it's very close to 100%.

Liv Boeree (2:01:55.440)

Like, allowing myself actually the,

Lex Fridman (2:01:58.400)

this is the difficulty of this is allowing myself

Liv Boeree (2:02:01.280)

to think differently, I feel like has

Lex Fridman (2:02:04.520)

a psychological consequence.

Liv Boeree (2:02:06.460)

That's where that, that's one of my pushbacks

Lex Fridman (2:02:08.400)

against radical honesty is this one particular perspective.

Lex Fridman (2:02:14.480)

So you're saying you would rather give

Lex Fridman (2:02:16.240)

a falsely high percentage to your partner.

Liv Boeree (2:02:20.140)

Going back to the wide sage filth.

Lex Fridman (2:02:21.840)

In order to sort of create this additional optimism.

Liv Boeree (2:02:24.560)

Helmuth.

Lex Fridman (2:02:25.520)

Yes.

Liv Boeree (2:02:26.360)

Of fake it till you make it.

Lex Fridman (2:02:29.360)

The positive, the power of positive thinking.

Liv Boeree (2:02:31.200)

Hashtag positivity.

Lex Fridman (2:02:32.040)

Yeah, hashtag, it's with a hashtag.

Liv Boeree (2:02:35.320)

Well, so that, and this comes back to this idea

Lex Fridman (2:02:37.440)

of useful fictions, right?

Lex Fridman (2:02:39.760)

And I agree, I don't think there's a clear answer to this.

Lex Fridman (2:02:42.920)

And I think it's actually quite subjective.

Liv Boeree (2:02:44.240)

Some people this works better for than others.

Lex Fridman (2:02:48.320)

You know, to be clear, Igor and I weren't doing

Liv Boeree (2:02:50.120)

this formal prediction in it.

Lex Fridman (2:02:51.960)

Like we did it with very much tongue in cheek.

Liv Boeree (2:02:55.520)

It wasn't like we were going to make,

Lex Fridman (2:02:57.380)

I don't think it even would have drastically changed

Lex Fridman (2:03:00.160)

what we decided to do even.

Lex Fridman (2:03:02.160)

We kind of just did it more as a fun exercise.

Liv Boeree (2:03:05.200)

For the consequence of that fun exercise,

Lex Fridman (2:03:06.840)

you really actually kind of, there was a deep honesty to it.

Liv Boeree (2:03:09.920)

Exactly, it was a deep, and it was, yeah,

Lex Fridman (2:03:11.720)

it was just like this moment of reflection.

Liv Boeree (2:03:13.240)

I'm like, oh wow, I actually have to think

Lex Fridman (2:03:14.680)

like through this quite critically and so on.

Lex Fridman (2:03:17.840)

And it's also what was interesting was I got to like check

Lex Fridman (2:03:22.840)

in with what my desires were.

Lex Fridman (2:03:25.960)

So there was one thing of like what my actual prediction is,

Lex Fridman (2:03:28.560)

but what are my desires and could these desires

Liv Boeree (2:03:30.400)

be affecting my predictions and so on.

Lex Fridman (2:03:32.440)

And you know, that's a method of rationality.

Lex Fridman (2:03:34.920)

And I personally don't think it loses anything in terms of,

Lex Fridman (2:03:37.080)

I didn't take any of the magic away

Liv Boeree (2:03:38.440)

from our relationship, quite the opposite.

Lex Fridman (2:03:39.920)

Like it brought us closer together because it was like,

Liv Boeree (2:03:42.600)

we did this weird fun thing that I appreciate

Lex Fridman (2:03:45.360)

a lot of people find quite strange.

Lex Fridman (2:03:47.800)

And I think it was somewhat unique in our relationship

Lex Fridman (2:03:51.800)

that both of us are very, we both love numbers,

Liv Boeree (2:03:54.840)

we both love statistics, we're both poker players.

Lex Fridman (2:03:58.320)

So this was kind of like our safe space anyway.

Liv Boeree (2:04:01.240)

For others, one partner really might not

Lex Fridman (2:04:04.640)

like that kind of stuff at all, in which case

Liv Boeree (2:04:06.360)

this is not a good exercise to do.

Lex Fridman (2:04:07.840)

I don't recommend it to everybody.

Lex Fridman (2:04:10.600)

But I do think there's, it's interesting sometimes

Lex Fridman (2:04:14.280)

to poke holes in the probe at these things

Liv Boeree (2:04:18.920)

that we consider so sacred that we can't try

Lex Fridman (2:04:21.600)

to quantify them, which is interesting

Liv Boeree (2:04:24.720)

because that's in tension with like the idea

Lex Fridman (2:04:26.120)

of what we just talked about with beauty

Lex Fridman (2:04:27.440)

and like what makes something beautiful,

Lex Fridman (2:04:28.720)

the fact that you can't measure everything about it.

Lex Fridman (2:04:31.000)

And perhaps something shouldn't be tried to measure,

Lex Fridman (2:04:32.960)

maybe it's wrong to completely try and value

Liv Boeree (2:04:36.400)

the utilitarian, put a utilitarian frame

Lex Fridman (2:04:39.200)

of measuring the utility of a tree in its entirety.

Liv Boeree (2:04:43.320)

I don't know, maybe we should, maybe we shouldn't.

Lex Fridman (2:04:44.760)

I'm ambivalent on that.

Lex Fridman (2:04:46.680)

But overall, people have too many biases.

Lex Fridman (2:04:52.680)

People are overly biased against trying to do

Liv Boeree (2:04:57.080)

like a quantified cost benefit analysis

Lex Fridman (2:04:59.880)

on really tough life decisions.

Liv Boeree (2:05:02.680)

They're like, oh, just go with your gut.

Lex Fridman (2:05:04.000)

It's like, well, sure, but guts, our intuitions

Liv Boeree (2:05:07.200)

are best suited for things that we've got tons

Lex Fridman (2:05:09.160)

of experience in, then we can really, you don't trust on it.

Liv Boeree (2:05:11.920)

If it's a decision we've made many times,

Lex Fridman (2:05:13.360)

but if it's like, should I marry this person

Lex Fridman (2:05:16.040)

or should I buy this house over that house?

Lex Fridman (2:05:19.040)

You only make those decisions a couple of times

Liv Boeree (2:05:20.700)

in your life, maybe.

Lex Fridman (2:05:23.000)

Well, I would love to know, there's a balance,

Liv Boeree (2:05:26.940)

probably is a personal balance to strike

Lex Fridman (2:05:29.240)

is the amount of rationality you apply

Liv Boeree (2:05:33.140)

to a question versus the useful fiction,

Lex Fridman (2:05:38.160)

the fake it till you make it.

Liv Boeree (2:05:40.120)

For example, just talking to soldiers in Ukraine,

Lex Fridman (2:05:43.560)

you ask them, what's the probability of you winning,

Lex Fridman (2:05:49.220)

Ukraine winning?

Lex Fridman (2:05:52.480)

Almost everybody I talk to is 100%.

Liv Boeree (2:05:55.680)

Wow.

Lex Fridman (2:05:56.880)

And you listen to the experts, right?

Liv Boeree (2:05:59.000)

They say all kinds of stuff.

Lex Fridman (2:06:00.800)

Right.

Liv Boeree (2:06:01.640)

They are, first of all, the morale there

Lex Fridman (2:06:05.360)

is higher than probably enough.

Liv Boeree (2:06:07.200)

I've never been to a war zone before this,

Lex Fridman (2:06:09.920)

but I've read about many wars

Lex Fridman (2:06:12.560)

and I think the morale in Ukraine is higher

Lex Fridman (2:06:14.920)

than almost any war I've read about.

Liv Boeree (2:06:17.320)

It's every single person in the country

Lex Fridman (2:06:19.360)

is proud to fight for their country.

Liv Boeree (2:06:21.720)

Wow.

Lex Fridman (2:06:22.560)

Everybody, not just soldiers, not everybody.

Lex Fridman (2:06:25.640)

Why do you think that is?

Lex Fridman (2:06:26.560)

Specifically more than in other wars?

Liv Boeree (2:06:31.920)

I think because there's perhaps a dormant desire

Lex Fridman (2:06:36.680)

for the citizens of this country to find

Liv Boeree (2:06:40.520)

the identity of this country because it's been

Lex Fridman (2:06:43.280)

going through this 30 year process

Liv Boeree (2:06:45.340)

of different factions and political bickering

Lex Fridman (2:06:48.400)

and they haven't had, as they talk about,

Liv Boeree (2:06:50.960)

they haven't had their independence war.

Lex Fridman (2:06:52.600)

They say all great nations have had an independence war.

Liv Boeree (2:06:55.880)

They had to fight for their independence,

Lex Fridman (2:06:58.920)

for the discovery of the identity of the core

Liv Boeree (2:07:01.320)

of the ideals that unify us and they haven't had that.

Lex Fridman (2:07:04.600)

There's constantly been factions, there's been divisions,

Liv Boeree (2:07:07.220)

there's been pressures from empires,

Lex Fridman (2:07:09.820)

from the United States and from Russia,

Liv Boeree (2:07:12.320)

from NATO and Europe, everybody telling them what to do.

Lex Fridman (2:07:15.680)

Now they want to discover who they are

Lex Fridman (2:07:17.600)

and there's that kind of sense that we're going to fight

Lex Fridman (2:07:21.240)

for the safety of our homeland,

Lex Fridman (2:07:23.280)

but we're also gonna fight for our identity.

Lex Fridman (2:07:25.640)

And that, on top of the fact that there's just,

Liv Boeree (2:07:32.040)

if you look at the history of Ukraine

Lex Fridman (2:07:33.960)

and there's certain other countries like this,

Liv Boeree (2:07:36.760)

there are certain cultures that are feisty

Lex Fridman (2:07:39.880)

in their pride of being the citizens of that nation.

Liv Boeree (2:07:45.680)

Ukraine is that, Poland was that.

Lex Fridman (2:07:48.400)

You just look at history.

Liv Boeree (2:07:49.480)

In certain countries, you do not want to occupy.

Lex Fridman (2:07:54.240)

I mean, both Stalin and Hitler talked about Poland

Liv Boeree (2:07:56.880)

in this way, they're like, this is a big problem

Lex Fridman (2:08:00.260)

if we occupy this land for prolonged periods of time.

Liv Boeree (2:08:02.360)

They're gonna be a pain in their ass.

Lex Fridman (2:08:04.680)

They're not going to want to be occupied.

Lex Fridman (2:08:07.120)

And certain other countries are pragmatic.

Lex Fridman (2:08:09.520)

They're like, well, leaders come and go.

Liv Boeree (2:08:12.200)

I guess this is good.

Lex Fridman (2:08:14.400)

Ukraine just doesn't have, Ukrainians,

Liv Boeree (2:08:18.200)

throughout the 20th century,

Lex Fridman (2:08:19.280)

don't seem to be the kind of people

Liv Boeree (2:08:20.760)

that just sit calmly and let the quote unquote occupiers

Lex Fridman (2:08:28.200)

impose their rules.

Liv Boeree (2:08:30.160)

That's interesting though, because you said it's always been

Lex Fridman (2:08:32.400)

under conflict and leaders have come and gone.

Lex Fridman (2:08:35.520)

So you would expect them to actually be the opposite

Lex Fridman (2:08:37.120)

under that like reasoning.

Liv Boeree (2:08:39.160)

Well, because it's a very fertile land,

Lex Fridman (2:08:42.360)

it's great for agriculture.

Lex Fridman (2:08:43.480)

So a lot of people want to,

Lex Fridman (2:08:44.800)

I mean, I think they've developed this culture

Liv Boeree (2:08:46.520)

because they've constantly been occupied

Lex Fridman (2:08:47.920)

by different people for the different peoples.

Lex Fridman (2:08:51.040)

And so maybe there is something to that

Lex Fridman (2:08:54.600)

where you've constantly had to feel like within the blood

Liv Boeree (2:08:59.600)

of the generations, there's the struggle against the man,

Lex Fridman (2:09:04.840)

against the imposition of rules, against oppression

Lex Fridman (2:09:08.600)

and all that kind of stuff, and that stays with them.

Lex Fridman (2:09:10.560)

So there's a will there, but a lot of other aspects

Liv Boeree (2:09:15.320)

are also part of it that has to do with

Lex Fridman (2:09:18.000)

the reverse Mollet kind of situation

Liv Boeree (2:09:20.000)

where social media has definitely played a part of it.

Lex Fridman (2:09:23.120)

Also different charismatic individuals

Liv Boeree (2:09:25.040)

have had to play a part.

Lex Fridman (2:09:27.160)

The fact that the president of the nation, Zelensky,

Liv Boeree (2:09:31.120)

stayed in Kiev during the invasion

Lex Fridman (2:09:36.280)

is a huge inspiration to them

Liv Boeree (2:09:37.680)

because most leaders, as you can imagine,

Lex Fridman (2:09:41.440)

when the capital of the nation is under attack,

Liv Boeree (2:09:44.520)

the wise thing, the smart thing

Lex Fridman (2:09:46.800)

that the United States advised Zelensky to do

Liv Boeree (2:09:49.080)

is to flee and to be the leader of the nation

Lex Fridman (2:09:52.720)

from a distant place.

Liv Boeree (2:09:54.720)

He said, fuck that, I'm staying put.

Lex Fridman (2:09:58.840)

Everyone around him, there was a pressure to leave

Lex Fridman (2:10:01.720)

and he didn't, and those singular acts

Lex Fridman (2:10:07.840)

really can unify a nation.

Liv Boeree (2:10:09.160)

There's a lot of people that criticize Zelensky

Lex Fridman (2:10:11.360)

within Ukraine.

Liv Boeree (2:10:12.720)

Before the war, he was very unpopular, even still,

Lex Fridman (2:10:17.200)

but they put that aside, especially that singular act

Liv Boeree (2:10:22.080)

of staying in the capital.

Lex Fridman (2:10:24.080)

Yeah, a lot of those kinds of things come together

Liv Boeree (2:10:27.760)

to create something within people.

Lex Fridman (2:10:33.360)

These things always, of course, though,

Lex Fridman (2:10:39.920)

how zoomed out of a view do you wanna take?

Lex Fridman (2:10:43.600)

Because, yeah, you describe it,

Liv Boeree (2:10:45.000)

it's like an anti Moloch thing happened within Ukraine

Lex Fridman (2:10:47.960)

because it brought the Ukrainian people together

Liv Boeree (2:10:49.760)

in order to fight a common enemy.

Lex Fridman (2:10:51.760)

Maybe that's a good thing, maybe that's a bad thing.

Liv Boeree (2:10:53.360)

In the end, we don't know

Lex Fridman (2:10:54.200)

how this is all gonna play out, right?

Lex Fridman (2:10:56.720)

But if you zoom it out from a level, on a global level,

Lex Fridman (2:11:01.120)

they're coming together to fight that,

Liv Boeree (2:11:09.000)

that could make a conflict larger.

Lex Fridman (2:11:12.240)

You know what I mean?

Liv Boeree (2:11:13.120)

I don't know what the right answer is here.

Lex Fridman (2:11:15.680)

It seems like a good thing that they came together,

Lex Fridman (2:11:17.600)

but we don't know how this is all gonna play out.

Lex Fridman (2:11:20.000)

If this all turns into nuclear war, we'll be like,

Liv Boeree (2:11:21.920)

okay, that was the bad, that was the...

Lex Fridman (2:11:23.440)

Oh yeah, so I was describing the reverse Moloch

Liv Boeree (2:11:26.080)

for the local level.

Lex Fridman (2:11:27.440)

Exactly, yes.

Liv Boeree (2:11:28.280)

Now, this is where the experts come in and they say,

Lex Fridman (2:11:32.160)

well, if you channel most of the resources of the nation

Lex Fridman (2:11:37.520)

and the nations supporting Ukraine into the war effort,

Lex Fridman (2:11:42.760)

are you not beating the drums of war

Lex Fridman (2:11:45.800)

that is much bigger than Ukraine?

Lex Fridman (2:11:47.480)

In fact, even the Ukrainian leaders

Liv Boeree (2:11:50.880)

are speaking of it this way.

Lex Fridman (2:11:52.920)

This is not a war between two nations.

Liv Boeree (2:11:55.840)

This is the early days of a world war,

Lex Fridman (2:12:01.000)

if we don't play this correctly.

Liv Boeree (2:12:02.440)

Yes, and we need cool heads from our leaders.

Lex Fridman (2:12:07.760)

So from Ukraine's perspective,

Liv Boeree (2:12:10.200)

Ukraine needs to win the war

Lex Fridman (2:12:12.640)

because what does winning the war mean

Liv Boeree (2:12:15.440)

is coming to peace negotiations, an agreement

Lex Fridman (2:12:21.600)

that guarantees no more invasions.

Lex Fridman (2:12:24.360)

And then you make an agreement

Lex Fridman (2:12:25.640)

about what land belongs to who.

Lex Fridman (2:12:28.560)

And that's, you stop that.

Lex Fridman (2:12:30.240)

And basically from their perspective

Liv Boeree (2:12:34.120)

is you want to demonstrate to the rest of the world

Lex Fridman (2:12:36.600)

who's watching carefully, including Russia and China

Lex Fridman (2:12:39.640)

and different players on the geopolitical stage,

Lex Fridman (2:12:42.280)

that this kind of conflict is not going to be productive

Liv Boeree (2:12:46.000)

if you engage in it.

Lex Fridman (2:12:47.240)

So you want to teach everybody a lesson,

Liv Boeree (2:12:49.240)

let's not do World War III.

Lex Fridman (2:12:50.920)

It's gonna be bad for everybody.

Lex Fridman (2:12:53.000)

And so it's a lose, lose.

Lex Fridman (2:12:54.760)

It's a deep lose, lose.

Liv Boeree (2:12:56.600)

Doesn't matter.

Lex Fridman (2:13:00.400)

And I think that's actually a correct,

Liv Boeree (2:13:05.680)

when I zoom out, I mean, 99% of what I think about

Lex Fridman (2:13:10.160)

is just individual human beings and human lives

Lex Fridman (2:13:12.320)

and just that war is horrible.

Lex Fridman (2:13:14.600)

But when you zoom out and think

Liv Boeree (2:13:15.920)

from a geopolitics perspective,

Lex Fridman (2:13:17.760)

we should realize that it's entirely possible

Liv Boeree (2:13:22.000)

that we will see a World War III in the 21st century.

Lex Fridman (2:13:26.400)

And this is like a dress rehearsal for that.

Lex Fridman (2:13:29.840)

And so the way we play this as a human civilization

Lex Fridman (2:13:34.840)

will define whether we do or don't have a World War III.

Lex Fridman (2:13:45.000)

How we discuss war, how we discuss nuclear war,

Lex Fridman (2:13:49.320)

the kind of leaders we elect and prop up,

Liv Boeree (2:13:55.200)

the kind of memes we circulate,

Lex Fridman (2:13:58.480)

because you have to be very careful

Liv Boeree (2:13:59.920)

when you're being pro Ukraine, for example,

Lex Fridman (2:14:04.480)

you have to realize that you're being,

Liv Boeree (2:14:07.640)

you are also indirectly feeding

Lex Fridman (2:14:11.520)

the ever increasing military industrial complex.

Lex Fridman (2:14:15.560)

So you have to be extremely careful

Lex Fridman (2:14:17.560)

that when you say pro Ukraine or pro anybody,

Liv Boeree (2:14:24.440)

you're pro human beings, not pro the machine

Lex Fridman (2:14:29.440)

that creates narratives that says it's pro human beings.

Lex Fridman (2:14:36.760)

But it's actually, if you look at the raw use

Lex Fridman (2:14:39.920)

of funds and resources, it's actually pro making weapons

Lex Fridman (2:14:44.840)

and shooting bullets and dropping bombs.

Lex Fridman (2:14:47.360)

The real, we have to just somehow get the meme

Liv Boeree (2:14:50.600)

into everyone's heads that the real enemy is war itself.

Lex Fridman (2:14:54.560)

That's the enemy we need to defeat.

Lex Fridman (2:14:57.040)

And that doesn't mean to say that there isn't justification

Lex Fridman (2:15:01.560)

for small local scenarios, adversarial conflicts.

Liv Boeree (2:15:07.280)

If you have a leader who is starting wars,

Lex Fridman (2:15:11.080)

they're on the side of team war, basically.

Liv Boeree (2:15:13.720)

It's not that they're on the side of team country,

Lex Fridman (2:15:15.240)

whatever that country is,

Liv Boeree (2:15:16.200)

it's they're on the side of team war.

Lex Fridman (2:15:17.920)

So that needs to be stopped and put down.

Lex Fridman (2:15:20.160)

But you also have to find a way

Lex Fridman (2:15:21.560)

that your corrective measure doesn't actually then

Liv Boeree (2:15:25.480)

end up being coopted by the war machine

Lex Fridman (2:15:27.360)

and creating greater war.

Liv Boeree (2:15:28.920)

Again, the playing field is finite.

Lex Fridman (2:15:31.080)

The scale of conflict is now getting so big

Liv Boeree (2:15:35.200)

that the weapons that can be used are so mass destructive

Lex Fridman (2:15:40.280)

that we can't afford another giant conflict.

Liv Boeree (2:15:42.560)

We just, we won't make it.

Lex Fridman (2:15:44.080)

What existential threat in terms of us not making it

Lex Fridman (2:15:48.000)

are you most worried about?

Lex Fridman (2:15:49.640)

What existential threat to human civilization?

Liv Boeree (2:15:51.920)

We got like, let's go.

Lex Fridman (2:15:52.760)

Going down a dark path, huh?

Liv Boeree (2:15:53.600)

It's good, but no, well, no, it's a dark.

Lex Fridman (2:15:56.600)

No, it's like, well, while we're in the somber place,

Liv Boeree (2:15:58.560)

we might as well.

Lex Fridman (2:16:02.280)

Some of my best friends are dark paths.

Lex Fridman (2:16:06.680)

What worries you most?

Lex Fridman (2:16:07.960)

We mentioned asteroids, we mentioned AGI, nuclear weapons.

Liv Boeree (2:16:14.160)

The one that's on my mind the most,

Lex Fridman (2:16:17.320)

mostly because I think it's the one where we have

Liv Boeree (2:16:19.400)

actually a real chance to move the needle on

Lex Fridman (2:16:21.920)

in a positive direction or more specifically,

Liv Boeree (2:16:24.520)

stop some really bad things from happening,

Lex Fridman (2:16:26.800)

really dumb, avoidable things is bio risks.

Lex Fridman (2:16:36.160)

In what kind of bio risks?

Lex Fridman (2:16:37.480)

There's so many fun options.

Lex Fridman (2:16:39.320)

So many, so of course, we have natural risks

Lex Fridman (2:16:41.880)

from natural pandemics, naturally occurring viruses

Liv Boeree (2:16:45.000)

or pathogens, and then also as time and technology goes on

Lex Fridman (2:16:49.560)

and technology becomes more and more democratized

Lex Fridman (2:16:51.520)

and into the hands of more and more people,

Lex Fridman (2:16:54.000)

the risk of synthetic pathogens.

Lex Fridman (2:16:57.320)

And whether or not you fall into the camp of COVID

Lex Fridman (2:17:00.600)

was gain of function accidental lab leak

Liv Boeree (2:17:03.680)

or whether it was purely naturally occurring,

Lex Fridman (2:17:07.200)

either way, we are facing a future where synthetic pathogens

Liv Boeree (2:17:14.400)

or like human meddled with pathogens

Lex Fridman (2:17:17.840)

either accidentally get out or get into the hands

Liv Boeree (2:17:21.840)

of bad actors who, whether they're omnicidal maniacs,

Lex Fridman (2:17:25.800)

you know, either way.

Lex Fridman (2:17:28.560)

And so that means we need more robustness for that.

Lex Fridman (2:17:31.160)

And you would think that us having this nice little dry run,

Liv Boeree (2:17:33.920)

which is what as awful as COVID was,

Lex Fridman (2:17:37.880)

and all those poor people that died,

Liv Boeree (2:17:39.480)

it was still like child's play compared

Lex Fridman (2:17:42.800)

to what a future one could be in terms of fatality rate.

Lex Fridman (2:17:45.800)

And so you'd think that we would then be coming,

Lex Fridman (2:17:48.400)

we'd be much more robust in our pandemic preparedness.

Lex Fridman (2:17:52.200)

And meanwhile, the budget in the last two years for the US,

Lex Fridman (2:17:59.000)

sorry, they just did this, I can't remember the name

Liv Boeree (2:18:02.400)

of what the actual budget was,

Lex Fridman (2:18:03.320)

but it was like a multi trillion dollar budget

Liv Boeree (2:18:05.440)

that the US just set aside.

Lex Fridman (2:18:07.360)

And originally in that, you know, considering that COVID

Lex Fridman (2:18:09.920)

cost multiple trillions to the economy, right?

Lex Fridman (2:18:12.400)

The original allocation in this new budget

Liv Boeree (2:18:14.640)

for future pandemic preparedness was 60 billion,

Lex Fridman (2:18:17.320)

so tiny proportion of it.

Liv Boeree (2:18:20.000)

That's proceeded to get whittled down to like 30 billion,

Lex Fridman (2:18:24.520)

to 15 billion, all the way down to 2 billion

Liv Boeree (2:18:27.960)

out of multiple trillions.

Lex Fridman (2:18:28.880)

For a thing that has just cost us multiple trillions,

Liv Boeree (2:18:31.520)

we've just finished, we're barely even,

Lex Fridman (2:18:33.080)

we're not even really out of it.

Liv Boeree (2:18:34.720)

It basically got whittled down to nothing

Lex Fridman (2:18:36.560)

because for some reason people think that,

Liv Boeree (2:18:38.480)

oh, all right, we've got the pandemic,

Lex Fridman (2:18:40.000)

out of the way, that was that one.

Lex Fridman (2:18:42.360)

And the reason for that is that people are,

Lex Fridman (2:18:44.680)

and I say this with all due respect

Liv Boeree (2:18:47.200)

to a lot of the science community,

Lex Fridman (2:18:48.320)

but there's an immense amount of naivety about,

Liv Boeree (2:18:52.800)

they think that nature is the main risk moving forward,

Lex Fridman (2:18:56.800)

and it really isn't.

Lex Fridman (2:18:59.120)

And I think nothing demonstrates this more

Lex Fridman (2:19:00.440)

than this project that I was just reading about

Liv Boeree (2:19:03.240)

that's sort of being proposed right now called Deep Vision.

Lex Fridman (2:19:07.760)

And the idea is to go out into the wilds,

Lex Fridman (2:19:10.360)

and we're not talking about just like within cities,

Lex Fridman (2:19:13.160)

like deep into like caves that people don't go to,

Liv Boeree (2:19:15.840)

deep into the Arctic, wherever, scour the earth

Lex Fridman (2:19:18.880)

for whatever the most dangerous possible pathogens

Liv Boeree (2:19:22.240)

could be that they can find.

Lex Fridman (2:19:24.560)

And then not only do, try and find these,

Liv Boeree (2:19:27.960)

bring samples of them back to laboratories.

Lex Fridman (2:19:31.200)

And again, whether you think COVID was a lab leak or not,

Liv Boeree (2:19:34.240)

I'm not gonna get into that,

Lex Fridman (2:19:35.560)

but we have historically had so many, as a civilization,

Liv Boeree (2:19:38.520)

we've had so many lab leaks

Lex Fridman (2:19:40.760)

from even like the highest level security things.

Liv Boeree (2:19:42.800)

Like it's just, people should go and just read it.

Lex Fridman (2:19:45.680)

It's like a comedy show of just how many they are,

Lex Fridman (2:19:48.680)

how leaky these labs are,

Lex Fridman (2:19:50.280)

even when they do their best efforts.

Lex Fridman (2:19:52.720)

So bring these things then back to civilization.

Lex Fridman (2:19:55.680)

That's step one of the badness.

Liv Boeree (2:19:57.240)

Then the next step would be to then categorize them,

Lex Fridman (2:20:01.040)

do experiments on them and categorize them

Liv Boeree (2:20:02.600)

by their level of potential.

Lex Fridman (2:20:04.320)

And then the piece de resistance on this plan

Liv Boeree (2:20:07.320)

is to then publish that information freely on the internet

Lex Fridman (2:20:11.560)

about all these pathogens, including their genome,

Liv Boeree (2:20:13.720)

which is literally like the building instructions

Lex Fridman (2:20:15.680)

of how to do them on the internet.

Lex Fridman (2:20:18.080)

And this is something that genuinely,

Lex Fridman (2:20:20.280)

a pocket of the like bio,

Liv Boeree (2:20:23.080)

of the scientific community thinks is a good idea.

Lex Fridman (2:20:26.560)

And I think on expectation, like the,

Lex Fridman (2:20:28.880)

and their argument is, is that, oh, this is good,

Lex Fridman (2:20:31.440)

because it might buy us some time to develop the vaccines,

Liv Boeree (2:20:35.360)

which, okay, sure, maybe would have made sense

Lex Fridman (2:20:37.880)

prior to mRNA technology, but you know, like they,

Liv Boeree (2:20:40.480)

mRNA, we can develop a vaccine now

Lex Fridman (2:20:43.760)

when we find a new pathogen within a couple of days.

Liv Boeree (2:20:46.880)

Now then there's all the trials and so on.

Lex Fridman (2:20:48.520)

Those trials would have to happen anyway,

Liv Boeree (2:20:50.040)

in the case of a brand new thing.

Lex Fridman (2:20:51.440)

So you're saving maybe a couple of days.

Lex Fridman (2:20:53.400)

So that's the upside.

Lex Fridman (2:20:54.520)

Meanwhile, the downside is you're not only giving,

Liv Boeree (2:20:58.160)

you're not only giving the vaccine,

Lex Fridman (2:21:00.000)

you're bringing the risk of these pathogens

Liv Boeree (2:21:03.200)

of like getting leaked,

Lex Fridman (2:21:04.040)

but you're literally handing it out

Liv Boeree (2:21:06.400)

to every bad actor on earth who would be doing cartwheels.

Lex Fridman (2:21:10.320)

And I'm talking about like Kim Jong Un, ISIS,

Liv Boeree (2:21:13.280)

people who like want,

Lex Fridman (2:21:14.880)

they think the rest of the world is their enemy.

Lex Fridman (2:21:17.200)

And in some cases they think that killing it themselves

Lex Fridman (2:21:19.760)

is like a noble cause.

Lex Fridman (2:21:22.680)

And you're literally giving them the building blocks

Lex Fridman (2:21:24.240)

of how to do this.

Liv Boeree (2:21:25.080)

It's the most batshit idea I've ever heard.

Lex Fridman (2:21:26.920)

Like on expectation, it's probably like minus EV

Liv Boeree (2:21:29.560)

of like multiple billions of lives

Lex Fridman (2:21:31.640)

if they actually succeeded in doing this.

Liv Boeree (2:21:33.440)

Certainly in the tens or hundreds of millions.

Lex Fridman (2:21:35.760)

So the cost benefit is so unbelievably, it makes no sense.

Lex Fridman (2:21:38.840)

And I was trying to wrap my head around like why,

Lex Fridman (2:21:42.120)

like what's going wrong in people's minds

Lex Fridman (2:21:44.920)

to think that this is a good idea?

Lex Fridman (2:21:46.640)

And it's not that it's malice or anything like that.

Liv Boeree (2:21:50.000)

I think it's that people don't,

Lex Fridman (2:21:53.600)

the proponents, they're actually overly naive

Liv Boeree (2:21:57.400)

about the interactions of humanity.

Lex Fridman (2:22:00.680)

And well, like there are bad actors

Liv Boeree (2:22:02.880)

who will use this for bad things.

Lex Fridman (2:22:04.920)

Because not only will it,

Liv Boeree (2:22:07.440)

if you publish this information,

Lex Fridman (2:22:08.920)

even if a bad actor couldn't physically make it themselves,

Liv Boeree (2:22:12.200)

which given in 10 years time,

Lex Fridman (2:22:14.080)

like the technology is getting cheaper and easier to use.

Lex Fridman (2:22:18.000)

But even if they couldn't make it, they could now bluff it.

Lex Fridman (2:22:20.400)

Like what would you do if there's like some deadly new virus

Liv Boeree (2:22:22.960)

that we were published on the internet

Lex Fridman (2:22:26.120)

in terms of its building blocks?

Liv Boeree (2:22:27.560)

Kim Jong Un could be like,

Lex Fridman (2:22:28.600)

hey, if you don't let me build my nuclear weapons,

Liv Boeree (2:22:31.560)

I'm gonna release this, I've managed to build it.

Lex Fridman (2:22:33.600)

Well, now he's actually got a credible bluff.

Liv Boeree (2:22:35.440)

We don't know.

Lex Fridman (2:22:36.440)

And so that's, it's just like handing the keys,

Liv Boeree (2:22:39.320)

it's handing weapons of mass destruction to people.

Lex Fridman (2:22:42.360)

Makes no sense.

Liv Boeree (2:22:43.200)

The possible, I agree with you,

Lex Fridman (2:22:44.520)

but the possible world in which it might make sense

Liv Boeree (2:22:48.240)

is if the good guys, which is a whole nother problem,

Lex Fridman (2:22:53.760)

defining who the good guys are,

Lex Fridman (2:22:55.480)

but the good guys are like an order of magnitude

Lex Fridman (2:22:59.640)

higher competence.

Lex Fridman (2:23:01.840)

And so they can stay ahead of the bad actors

Lex Fridman (2:23:06.720)

by just being very good at the defense.

Liv Boeree (2:23:10.080)

By very good, not meaning like a little bit better,

Lex Fridman (2:23:13.720)

but an order of magnitude better.

Lex Fridman (2:23:15.880)

But of course the question is,

Lex Fridman (2:23:17.200)

in each of those individual disciplines, is that feasible?

Lex Fridman (2:23:21.680)

Can you, can the bad actors,

Lex Fridman (2:23:23.440)

even if they don't have the competence leapfrog

Lex Fridman (2:23:25.840)

to the place where the good guys are?

Lex Fridman (2:23:29.680)

Yeah, I mean, I would agree in principle

Liv Boeree (2:23:32.760)

with pertaining to this like particular plan of like,

Lex Fridman (2:23:37.000)

that, you know, with the thing I described,

Liv Boeree (2:23:38.480)

this deep vision thing, where at least then

Lex Fridman (2:23:40.320)

that would maybe make sense for steps one and step two

Liv Boeree (2:23:42.160)

of like getting the information,

Lex Fridman (2:23:43.400)

but then why would you release it,

Lex Fridman (2:23:45.640)

the information to your literal enemies?

Lex Fridman (2:23:47.240)

You know, that's, that makes,

Liv Boeree (2:23:49.000)

that doesn't fit at all in that perspective

Lex Fridman (2:23:52.560)

of like trying to be ahead of them.

Liv Boeree (2:23:53.560)

You're literally handing them the weapon.

Lex Fridman (2:23:55.000)

But there's different levels of release, right?

Lex Fridman (2:23:56.640)

So there's the kind of secrecy

Lex Fridman (2:24:00.520)

where you don't give it to anybody,

Lex Fridman (2:24:02.440)

but there's a release where you incrementally give it

Lex Fridman (2:24:05.480)

to like major labs.

Lex Fridman (2:24:07.720)

So it's not public release, but it's like,

Lex Fridman (2:24:09.400)

you're giving it to major labs.

Liv Boeree (2:24:10.240)

Yeah, there's different layers of reasonability, but.

Lex Fridman (2:24:12.880)

But the problem there is it's going to,

Liv Boeree (2:24:14.640)

if you go anywhere beyond like complete secrecy,

Lex Fridman (2:24:18.160)

it's gonna leak.

Liv Boeree (2:24:19.720)

That's the thing, it's very hard to keep secrets.

Lex Fridman (2:24:21.600)

And so that's still. Information is.

Lex Fridman (2:24:23.440)

So you might as well release it to the public

Lex Fridman (2:24:25.920)

is that argument.

Lex Fridman (2:24:26.920)

So you either go complete secrecy

Lex Fridman (2:24:29.600)

or you release it to the public.

Liv Boeree (2:24:31.720)

So, which is essentially the same thing.

Lex Fridman (2:24:33.960)

It's going to leak anyway,

Liv Boeree (2:24:35.920)

if you don't do complete secrecy.

Lex Fridman (2:24:38.240)

Right, which is why you shouldn't get the information

Liv Boeree (2:24:39.840)

in the first place.

Lex Fridman (2:24:40.680)

Yeah, I mean, what, in that, I think.

Liv Boeree (2:24:43.720)

Well, that's a solution.

Lex Fridman (2:24:44.920)

Yeah, the solution is either don't get the information

Liv Boeree (2:24:46.640)

in the first place or B, keep it incredibly,

Lex Fridman (2:24:50.880)

incredibly contained.

Liv Boeree (2:24:52.240)

See, I think, I think it really matters

Lex Fridman (2:24:54.560)

which discipline we're talking about.

Lex Fridman (2:24:55.800)

So in the case of biology, I do think you're very right.

Lex Fridman (2:24:59.680)

We shouldn't even be, it should be forbidden

Liv Boeree (2:25:02.520)

to even like, think about that.

Lex Fridman (2:25:06.640)

Meaning don't collect, don't just even collect

Liv Boeree (2:25:08.520)

the information, but like, don't do,

Lex Fridman (2:25:11.120)

I mean, gain of function research is a really iffy area.

Liv Boeree (2:25:14.880)

Like you start.

Lex Fridman (2:25:15.880)

I mean, it's all about cost benefits, right?

Liv Boeree (2:25:17.640)

There are some scenarios where I could imagine

Lex Fridman (2:25:19.240)

the cost benefit of a gain of function research

Liv Boeree (2:25:21.280)

is very, very clear, where you've evaluated

Lex Fridman (2:25:24.400)

all the potential risks, factored in the probability

Liv Boeree (2:25:26.760)

that things can go wrong.

Lex Fridman (2:25:27.800)

And like, you know, not only known unknowns,

Lex Fridman (2:25:29.760)

but unknown unknowns as well, tried to quantify that.

Lex Fridman (2:25:32.320)

And then even then it's like orders of magnitude

Liv Boeree (2:25:34.400)

better to do that.

Lex Fridman (2:25:35.400)

I'm behind that argument.

Lex Fridman (2:25:36.720)

But the point is that there's this like,

Lex Fridman (2:25:38.920)

naivety that's preventing people from even doing

Liv Boeree (2:25:40.960)

the cost benefit properly on a lot of the things

Lex Fridman (2:25:43.280)

because, you know, I get it.

Liv Boeree (2:25:45.880)

The science community, again, I don't want to bucket

Lex Fridman (2:25:48.680)

the science community, but like some people

Liv Boeree (2:25:50.240)

within the science community just think

Lex Fridman (2:25:52.600)

that everyone's good and everyone just cares

Liv Boeree (2:25:54.800)

about getting knowledge and doing the best for the world.

Lex Fridman (2:25:56.880)

And unfortunately, that's not the case.

Liv Boeree (2:25:58.040)

I wish we lived in that world, but we don't.

Lex Fridman (2:26:00.880)

Yeah, I mean, there's a lie.

Liv Boeree (2:26:02.360)

Listen, I've been criticizing the science community

Lex Fridman (2:26:05.600)

broadly quite a bit.

Liv Boeree (2:26:07.360)

There's so many brilliant people that brilliance

Lex Fridman (2:26:09.840)

is somehow a hindrance sometimes

Liv Boeree (2:26:11.280)

because it has a bunch of blind spots.

Lex Fridman (2:26:13.160)

And then you start to look at the history of science,

Lex Fridman (2:26:16.400)

how easily it's been used by dictators

Lex Fridman (2:26:19.040)

to any conclusion they want.

Lex Fridman (2:26:20.880)

And it's dark how you can use brilliant people

Lex Fridman (2:26:24.880)

that like playing the little game of science

Liv Boeree (2:26:27.160)

because it is a fun game.

Lex Fridman (2:26:28.800)

You know, you're building, you're going to conferences,

Liv Boeree (2:26:30.720)

you're building on top of each other's ideas,

Lex Fridman (2:26:32.320)

there's breakthroughs.

Liv Boeree (2:26:33.240)

Hi, I think I've realized how this particular molecule works

Lex Fridman (2:26:37.040)

and I could do this kind of experiment

Lex Fridman (2:26:38.560)

and everyone else is impressed.

Lex Fridman (2:26:39.680)

Ooh, cool.

Liv Boeree (2:26:40.520)

No, I think you're wrong.

Lex Fridman (2:26:41.400)

Let me show you why you're wrong.

Lex Fridman (2:26:42.480)

And that little game, everyone gets really excited

Lex Fridman (2:26:44.840)

and they get excited, oh, I came up with a pill

Liv Boeree (2:26:47.080)

that solves this problem

Lex Fridman (2:26:48.040)

and it's going to help a bunch of people.

Lex Fridman (2:26:49.480)

And I came up with a giant study

Lex Fridman (2:26:51.360)

that shows the exact probability it's going to help or not.

Lex Fridman (2:26:54.480)

And you get lost in this game

Lex Fridman (2:26:56.320)

and you forget to realize this game, just like Moloch,

Liv Boeree (2:27:01.160)

can have like...

Lex Fridman (2:27:03.040)

Unintended consequences.

Liv Boeree (2:27:03.880)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (2:27:04.720)

Unintended consequences that might

Liv Boeree (2:27:06.920)

destroy human civilization.

Lex Fridman (2:27:08.800)

Right.

Liv Boeree (2:27:09.640)

Or divide human civilization

Lex Fridman (2:27:12.840)

or have dire geopolitical consequences.

Liv Boeree (2:27:17.520)

I mean, the effects of, I mean, it's just so...

Lex Fridman (2:27:20.320)

The most destructive effects of COVID

Liv Boeree (2:27:22.880)

have nothing to do with the biology of the virus,

Lex Fridman (2:27:25.760)

it seems like.

Liv Boeree (2:27:27.520)

I mean, I could just list them forever,

Lex Fridman (2:27:29.560)

but like one of them is the complete distress

Liv Boeree (2:27:32.200)

of public institutions.

Lex Fridman (2:27:34.160)

The other one is because of that public distress,

Liv Boeree (2:27:36.360)

I feel like if a much worse pandemic came along,

Lex Fridman (2:27:39.840)

we as a world have now cried wolf.

Lex Fridman (2:27:42.440)

And if an actual wolf now comes,

Lex Fridman (2:27:45.440)

people will be like, fuck masks, fuck...

Liv Boeree (2:27:48.360)

Fuck vaccines, yeah.

Lex Fridman (2:27:49.200)

Fuck everything.

Lex Fridman (2:27:50.040)

And they won't be...

Lex Fridman (2:27:51.680)

They'll distrust every single thing

Liv Boeree (2:27:53.560)

that any major institution is going to tell them.

Lex Fridman (2:27:55.960)

And...

Liv Boeree (2:27:56.960)

Because that's the thing,

Lex Fridman (2:27:57.800)

like there were certain actions made by

Liv Boeree (2:28:03.720)

certain health public figures where they told,

Lex Fridman (2:28:07.760)

they very knowingly told it was a white lie,

Liv Boeree (2:28:10.760)

it was intended in the best possible way,

Lex Fridman (2:28:12.440)

such as early on when there was clearly a shortage of masks.

Lex Fridman (2:28:20.480)

And so they said to the public,

Lex Fridman (2:28:21.520)

oh, don't get masks, there's no evidence that they work.

Liv Boeree (2:28:25.000)

Or don't get them, they don't work.

Lex Fridman (2:28:27.240)

In fact, it might even make it worse.

Liv Boeree (2:28:29.000)

You might even spread it more.

Lex Fridman (2:28:30.240)

Like that was the real like stinker.

Liv Boeree (2:28:33.120)

Yeah, no, no, unless you know how to do it properly,

Lex Fridman (2:28:35.120)

you're gonna make that you're gonna get sicker

Liv Boeree (2:28:36.680)

or you're more likely to catch the virus,

Lex Fridman (2:28:38.680)

which is just absolute crap.

Lex Fridman (2:28:41.320)

And they put that out there.

Lex Fridman (2:28:43.160)

And it's pretty clear the reason why they did that

Liv Boeree (2:28:45.280)

was because there was actually a shortage of masks

Lex Fridman (2:28:47.600)

and they really needed it for health workers,

Liv Boeree (2:28:50.160)

which makes sense.

Lex Fridman (2:28:51.000)

Like, I agree, like, you know,

Lex Fridman (2:28:52.760)

but the cost of lying to the public

Lex Fridman (2:28:57.840)

when that then comes out,

Liv Boeree (2:28:59.880)

people aren't as stupid as they think they are.

Lex Fridman (2:29:02.720)

And that's, I think where this distrust of experts

Liv Boeree (2:29:05.840)

has largely come from.

Lex Fridman (2:29:06.680)

A, they've lied to people overtly,

Lex Fridman (2:29:09.360)

but B, people have been treated like idiots.

Lex Fridman (2:29:13.160)

Now, that's not to say that there aren't a lot

Liv Boeree (2:29:14.440)

of stupid people who have a lot of wacky ideas

Lex Fridman (2:29:16.160)

around COVID and all sorts of things.

Lex Fridman (2:29:18.240)

But if you treat the general public like children,

Lex Fridman (2:29:21.560)

they're going to see that, they're going to notice that.

Lex Fridman (2:29:23.520)

And that is going to just like absolutely decimate the trust

Lex Fridman (2:29:26.760)

in the public institutions that we depend upon.

Lex Fridman (2:29:29.520)

And honestly, the best thing that could happen,

Lex Fridman (2:29:32.240)

I wish like if like Fauci or, you know,

Lex Fridman (2:29:34.720)

and these other like leaders who, I mean, God,

Lex Fridman (2:29:36.880)

I would, I can't imagine how nightmare his job has been

Liv Boeree (2:29:39.760)

for the last few years, hell on earth.

Lex Fridman (2:29:41.040)

Like, so, you know, I, you know,

Liv Boeree (2:29:43.480)

I have a lot of sort of sympathy

Lex Fridman (2:29:45.360)

for the position he's been in.

Lex Fridman (2:29:46.920)

But like, if he could just come out and be like,

Lex Fridman (2:29:48.800)

okay, look, guys, hands up,

Liv Boeree (2:29:51.160)

we didn't handle this as well as we could have.

Lex Fridman (2:29:53.960)

These are all the things I would have done differently

Liv Boeree (2:29:55.880)

in hindsight.

Lex Fridman (2:29:56.720)

I apologize for this and this and this and this.

Liv Boeree (2:29:58.680)

That would go so far.

Lex Fridman (2:30:01.360)

And maybe I'm being naive, who knows,

Liv Boeree (2:30:03.040)

maybe this would backfire, but I don't think it would.

Lex Fridman (2:30:04.760)

Like to someone like me even,

Liv Boeree (2:30:06.240)

cause I've like, I've lost trust

Lex Fridman (2:30:07.360)

in a lot of these things.

Lex Fridman (2:30:08.840)

But I'm fortunate that I at least know people

Lex Fridman (2:30:10.360)

who I can go to who I think are good,

Liv Boeree (2:30:11.680)

like have good epistemics on this stuff.

Lex Fridman (2:30:14.320)

But you know, if they, if they could sort of put their hands

Liv Boeree (2:30:16.240)

on my go, okay, these are the spots where we screwed up.

Lex Fridman (2:30:18.240)

This, this, this, this was our reasons.

Liv Boeree (2:30:21.280)

Yeah, we actually told a little white lie here.

Lex Fridman (2:30:22.760)

We did it for this reason.

Liv Boeree (2:30:23.720)

We're really sorry.

Lex Fridman (2:30:24.960)

Where they just did the radical honesty thing,

Liv Boeree (2:30:26.760)

the radical transparency thing,

Lex Fridman (2:30:28.680)

that would go so far to rebuilding public trust.

Lex Fridman (2:30:32.120)

And I think that's what needs to happen.

Lex Fridman (2:30:33.320)

Otherwise.

Liv Boeree (2:30:34.160)

I totally agree with you.

Lex Fridman (2:30:35.000)

Unfortunately, yeah, his job was very tough

Lex Fridman (2:30:38.680)

and all those kinds of things, but I see arrogance

Lex Fridman (2:30:42.920)

and arrogance prevented him from being honest

Liv Boeree (2:30:46.080)

in that way previously.

Lex Fridman (2:30:47.840)

And I think arrogance will prevent him

Liv Boeree (2:30:49.480)

from being honest in that way.

Lex Fridman (2:30:51.040)

Now we need leaders.

Liv Boeree (2:30:52.840)

I think young people are seeing that,

Lex Fridman (2:30:55.440)

that kind of talking down to people

Liv Boeree (2:30:59.960)

from a position of power, I hope is the way of the past.

Lex Fridman (2:31:04.360)

People really like authenticity

Lex Fridman (2:31:06.120)

and they like leaders that are like a man

Lex Fridman (2:31:10.600)

and a woman of the people.

Lex Fridman (2:31:12.320)

And I think that just.

Lex Fridman (2:31:15.000)

I mean, he still has a chance to do that, I think.

Liv Boeree (2:31:17.040)

I mean, I don't wanna, you know, I don't think, you know,

Lex Fridman (2:31:19.280)

if I doubt he's listening, but if he is like,

Liv Boeree (2:31:21.560)

hey, I think, you know, I don't think he's irredeemable

Lex Fridman (2:31:25.160)

by any means.

Liv Boeree (2:31:26.000)

I think there's, you know, I don't have an opinion

Lex Fridman (2:31:28.720)

whether there was arrogance or there or not.

Liv Boeree (2:31:30.680)

Just know that I think like coming clean on the, you know,

Lex Fridman (2:31:34.440)

it's understandable to have fucked up during this pandemic.

Liv Boeree (2:31:37.600)

Like I won't expect any government to handle it well

Lex Fridman (2:31:39.400)

because it was so difficult, like so many moving pieces,

Lex Fridman (2:31:42.840)

so much like lack of information and so on.

Lex Fridman (2:31:46.040)

But the step to rebuilding trust is to go, okay, look,

Liv Boeree (2:31:49.320)

we're doing a scrutiny of where we went wrong.

Lex Fridman (2:31:51.280)

And for my part, I did this wrong in this part.

Lex Fridman (2:31:53.880)

And that would be huge.

Lex Fridman (2:31:55.120)

All of us can do that.

Liv Boeree (2:31:56.000)

I mean, I was struggling for a while

Lex Fridman (2:31:57.360)

whether I want to talk to him or not.

Liv Boeree (2:32:00.000)

I talked to his boss, Francis Collins.

Lex Fridman (2:32:03.600)

Another person that's screwed up in terms of trust,

Liv Boeree (2:32:08.040)

lost a little bit of my respect too.

Lex Fridman (2:32:10.280)

There seems to have been a kind of dishonesty

Liv Boeree (2:32:14.640)

in the backrooms in that they didn't trust people

Lex Fridman (2:32:21.080)

to be intelligent.

Liv Boeree (2:32:23.040)

Like we need to tell them what's good for them.

Lex Fridman (2:32:26.000)

We know what's good for them.

Liv Boeree (2:32:27.480)

That kind of idea.

Lex Fridman (2:32:28.960)

To be fair, the thing that's, what's it called?

Liv Boeree (2:32:33.400)

I heard the phrase today, nut picking.

Lex Fridman (2:32:36.360)

Social media does that.

Lex Fridman (2:32:37.760)

So you've got like nitpicking.

Lex Fridman (2:32:39.040)

Nut picking is where the craziest, stupidest,

Liv Boeree (2:32:44.360)

you know, if you have a group of people,

Lex Fridman (2:32:45.880)

let's say people who are vaccine,

Liv Boeree (2:32:47.720)

I don't like the term anti vaccine,

Lex Fridman (2:32:48.720)

people who are vaccine hesitant, vaccine speculative.

Lex Fridman (2:32:51.720)

So what social media did or the media or anyone,

Lex Fridman (2:32:57.320)

their opponents would do is pick the craziest example.

Lex Fridman (2:33:01.000)

So the ones who are like,

Lex Fridman (2:33:02.280)

I think I need to inject myself with motor oil

Liv Boeree (2:33:06.240)

up my ass or something.

Lex Fridman (2:33:07.920)

Select the craziest ones and then have that beamed too.

Lex Fridman (2:33:11.920)

So from like someone like Fauci or Francis's perspective,

Lex Fridman (2:33:14.680)

that's what they get because they're getting

Liv Boeree (2:33:16.240)

the same social media stuff as us.

Lex Fridman (2:33:17.440)

They're getting the same media reports.

Liv Boeree (2:33:19.000)

I mean, they might get some more information,

Lex Fridman (2:33:20.920)

but they too are gonna get the nuts portrayed to them.

Lex Fridman (2:33:24.880)

So they probably have a misrepresentation

Lex Fridman (2:33:27.240)

of what the actual public's intelligence is.

Liv Boeree (2:33:29.320)

Well, that's just, yes.

Lex Fridman (2:33:31.280)

And that just means they're not social media savvy.

Lex Fridman (2:33:33.640)

So one of the skills of being on social media

Lex Fridman (2:33:36.000)

is to be able to filter that in your mind,

Liv Boeree (2:33:37.880)

like to understand, to put into proper context.

Lex Fridman (2:33:40.080)

To realize that what you are seeing,

Liv Boeree (2:33:41.800)

social media is not anywhere near

Lex Fridman (2:33:43.960)

an accurate representation of humanity.

Liv Boeree (2:33:46.600)

Nut picking, and there's nothing wrong

Lex Fridman (2:33:49.520)

with putting motor oil up your ass.

Liv Boeree (2:33:51.320)

It's just one of the better aspects of,

Lex Fridman (2:33:54.440)

I do this every weekend.

Liv Boeree (2:33:56.320)

Okay.

Lex Fridman (2:33:58.280)

Where the hell did that analogy come from in my mind?

Lex Fridman (2:33:59.800)

Like what?

Lex Fridman (2:34:00.640)

I don't know.

Liv Boeree (2:34:01.480)

I think you need to, there's some Freudian thing

Lex Fridman (2:34:03.680)

you would need to deeply investigate with a therapist.

Lex Fridman (2:34:06.600)

Okay, what about AI?

Lex Fridman (2:34:08.240)

Are you worried about AGI, super intelligence systems

Lex Fridman (2:34:13.040)

or paperclip maximizer type of situation?

Lex Fridman (2:34:16.180)

Yes, I'm definitely worried about it,

Lex Fridman (2:34:19.940)

but I feel kind of bipolar in the,

Lex Fridman (2:34:23.220)

some days I wake up and I'm like.

Lex Fridman (2:34:24.780)

You're excited about the future?

Lex Fridman (2:34:26.100)

Well, exactly.

Liv Boeree (2:34:26.940)

I'm like, wow, we can unlock the mysteries of the universe.

Lex Fridman (2:34:29.420)

You know, escape the game.

Lex Fridman (2:34:30.620)

And this, you know,

Lex Fridman (2:34:34.340)

because I spend all my time thinking

Liv Boeree (2:34:35.740)

about these molecule problems that, you know,

Lex Fridman (2:34:37.460)

what is the solution to them?

Liv Boeree (2:34:39.260)

What, you know, in some ways you need this like

Lex Fridman (2:34:41.780)

omni benevolent, omniscient, omni wise coordination mechanism

Liv Boeree (2:34:49.100)

that can like make us all not do the molecule thing

Lex Fridman (2:34:53.260)

or like provide the infrastructure

Liv Boeree (2:34:55.540)

or redesign the system so that it's not vulnerable

Lex Fridman (2:34:57.460)

to this molecule process.

Lex Fridman (2:34:59.940)

And in some ways, you know,

Lex Fridman (2:35:01.180)

that's the strongest argument to me

Liv Boeree (2:35:02.540)

for like the race to build AGI

Lex Fridman (2:35:04.940)

is that maybe, you know, we can't survive without it.

Lex Fridman (2:35:08.020)

But the flip side to that is the,

Lex Fridman (2:35:12.460)

the unfortunately now that there's multiple actors

Liv Boeree (2:35:14.900)

trying to build AI, AGI, you know,

Lex Fridman (2:35:17.780)

this was fine 10 years ago when it was just DeepMind,

Lex Fridman (2:35:19.940)

but then other companies started up

Lex Fridman (2:35:22.060)

and now it created a race dynamic.

Liv Boeree (2:35:23.380)

Now it's like, that's the whole thing.

Lex Fridman (2:35:25.660)

Is it the same, it's got the same problem.

Liv Boeree (2:35:28.020)

It's like whichever company is the one that like optimizes

Lex Fridman (2:35:31.500)

for speed at the cost of safety

Liv Boeree (2:35:33.620)

will get the competitive advantage.

Lex Fridman (2:35:35.340)

And so we're the more likely the ones to build the AGI,

Liv Boeree (2:35:37.380)

you know, and that's the same cycle that you're in.

Lex Fridman (2:35:40.260)

And there's no clear solution to that

Liv Boeree (2:35:41.580)

because you can't just go like slapping,

Lex Fridman (2:35:46.820)

if you go and try and like stop all the different companies,

Liv Boeree (2:35:51.140)

then it will, you know, the good ones will stop

Lex Fridman (2:35:54.620)

because they're the ones, you know,

Liv Boeree (2:35:55.660)

within the West's reach,

Lex Fridman (2:35:57.700)

but then that leaves all the other ones to continue

Lex Fridman (2:35:59.980)

and then they're even more likely.

Lex Fridman (2:36:00.980)

So it's like, it's a very difficult problem

Liv Boeree (2:36:03.140)

with no clean solution.

Lex Fridman (2:36:04.420)

And, you know, at the same time, you know,

Liv Boeree (2:36:08.580)

I know at least some of the folks at DeepMind

Lex Fridman (2:36:12.100)

and they're incredible and they're thinking about this.

Liv Boeree (2:36:13.740)

They're very aware of this problem.

Lex Fridman (2:36:15.020)

And they're like, you know,

Liv Boeree (2:36:17.020)

I think some of the smartest people on earth.

Lex Fridman (2:36:18.660)

Yeah, the culture is important there

Liv Boeree (2:36:20.580)

because they are thinking about that

Lex Fridman (2:36:21.940)

and they're some of the best machine learning engineers.

Lex Fridman (2:36:26.180)

So it's possible to have a company or a community of people

Lex Fridman (2:36:29.780)

that are both great engineers

Lex Fridman (2:36:31.700)

and are thinking about the philosophical topics.

Lex Fridman (2:36:33.740)

Exactly, and importantly, they're also game theorists,

Liv Boeree (2:36:36.700)

you know, and because this is ultimately

Lex Fridman (2:36:38.260)

a game theory problem, the thing, this Moloch mechanism

Lex Fridman (2:36:41.620)

and like, you know, how do we voice arms race scenarios?

Lex Fridman (2:36:47.340)

You need people who aren't naive to be thinking about this.

Lex Fridman (2:36:50.020)

And again, like luckily there's a lot of smart,

Lex Fridman (2:36:51.980)

non naive game theorists within that group.

Liv Boeree (2:36:54.780)

Yes, I'm concerned about it and I think it's again,

Lex Fridman (2:36:57.660)

a thing that we need people to be thinking about

Liv Boeree (2:37:01.300)

in terms of like, how do we create,

Lex Fridman (2:37:03.820)

how do we mitigate the arms race dynamics

Lex Fridman (2:37:05.980)

and how do we solve the thing of,

Lex Fridman (2:37:10.260)

Bostrom calls it the orthogonality problem whereby,

Liv Boeree (2:37:14.500)

because it's obviously there's a chance, you know,

Lex Fridman (2:37:16.060)

the belief, the hope is,

Liv Boeree (2:37:17.500)

is that you build something that's super intelligent

Lex Fridman (2:37:19.780)

and by definition of being super intelligent,

Liv Boeree (2:37:22.980)

it will also become super wise

Lex Fridman (2:37:25.140)

and have the wisdom to know what the right goals are.

Lex Fridman (2:37:27.820)

And hopefully those goals include keeping humanity alive.

Lex Fridman (2:37:30.980)

Right?

Lex Fridman (2:37:31.980)

But Bostrom says that actually those two things,

Lex Fridman (2:37:35.300)

you know, super intelligence and super wisdom

Liv Boeree (2:37:39.220)

aren't necessarily correlated.

Lex Fridman (2:37:40.420)

They're actually kind of orthogonal things.

Lex Fridman (2:37:42.900)

And how do we make it so that they are correlated?

Lex Fridman (2:37:44.820)

How do we guarantee it?

Liv Boeree (2:37:45.660)

Because we need it to be guaranteed really,

Lex Fridman (2:37:47.020)

to know that we're doing the thing safely.

Lex Fridman (2:37:48.900)

But I think that like merging of intelligence and wisdom,

Lex Fridman (2:37:54.460)

at least my hope is that this whole process

Liv Boeree (2:37:56.940)

happens sufficiently slowly

Lex Fridman (2:37:58.860)

that we're constantly having these kinds of debates

Liv Boeree (2:38:01.500)

that we have enough time to figure out

Lex Fridman (2:38:06.140)

how to modify each version of the system

Liv Boeree (2:38:07.900)

as it becomes more and more intelligent.

Lex Fridman (2:38:09.580)

Yes, buying time is a good thing, definitely.

Liv Boeree (2:38:12.020)

Anything that slows everything down.

Lex Fridman (2:38:14.220)

We just, everyone needs to chill out.

Liv Boeree (2:38:16.060)

We've got millennia to figure this out.

Lex Fridman (2:38:19.540)

Yeah.

Liv Boeree (2:38:21.580)

Or at least, at least, well, it depends.

Lex Fridman (2:38:25.580)

Again, some people think that, you know,

Liv Boeree (2:38:27.820)

we can't even make it through the next few decades

Lex Fridman (2:38:29.820)

without having some kind of

Liv Boeree (2:38:33.260)

omni wise coordination mechanism.

Lex Fridman (2:38:36.300)

And there's also an argument to that.

Liv Boeree (2:38:37.940)

Yeah, I don't know.

Lex Fridman (2:38:39.380)

Well, there is, I'm suspicious of that kind of thinking

Liv Boeree (2:38:42.220)

because it seems like the entirety of human history

Lex Fridman (2:38:45.220)

has people in it that are like predicting doom

Liv Boeree (2:38:49.780)

just around the corner.

Lex Fridman (2:38:50.780)

There's something about us

Liv Boeree (2:38:52.700)

that is strangely attracted to that thought.

Lex Fridman (2:38:56.300)

It's almost like fun to think about

Liv Boeree (2:38:59.700)

the destruction of everything.

Lex Fridman (2:39:02.540)

Just objectively speaking,

Liv Boeree (2:39:05.260)

I've talked and listened to a bunch of people

Lex Fridman (2:39:08.180)

and they are gravitating towards that.

Liv Boeree (2:39:11.100)

It's almost, I think it's the same thing

Lex Fridman (2:39:13.180)

that people love about conspiracy theories

Liv Boeree (2:39:15.700)

is they love to be the person that kind of figured out

Lex Fridman (2:39:19.220)

some deep fundamental thing about the,

Liv Boeree (2:39:22.140)

that's going to be, it's going to mark something

Lex Fridman (2:39:24.780)

extremely important about the history of human civilization

Liv Boeree (2:39:28.300)

because then I will be important.

Lex Fridman (2:39:31.300)

When in reality, most of us will be forgotten

Lex Fridman (2:39:33.500)

and life will go on.

Lex Fridman (2:39:37.620)

And one of the sad things about

Liv Boeree (2:39:40.020)

whenever anything traumatic happens to you,

Lex Fridman (2:39:41.980)

whenever you lose loved ones or just tragedy happens,

Liv Boeree (2:39:46.700)

you realize life goes on.

Lex Fridman (2:39:49.140)

Even after a nuclear war that will wipe out

Liv Boeree (2:39:52.140)

some large percentage of the population

Lex Fridman (2:39:55.020)

and will torture people for years to come

Liv Boeree (2:40:00.380)

because of the effects of a nuclear winter,

Lex Fridman (2:40:05.460)

people will still survive.

Liv Boeree (2:40:07.260)

Life will still go on.

Lex Fridman (2:40:08.700)

I mean, it depends on the kind of nuclear war.

Lex Fridman (2:40:10.940)

But in the case of nuclear war, it will still go on.

Lex Fridman (2:40:13.500)

That's one of the amazing things about life.

Liv Boeree (2:40:15.820)

It finds a way.

Lex Fridman (2:40:17.060)

And so in that sense, I just,

Liv Boeree (2:40:18.940)

I feel like the doom and gloom thing

Lex Fridman (2:40:21.100)

is a...

Liv Boeree (2:40:23.780)

Well, what we don't, yeah,

Lex Fridman (2:40:24.620)

we don't want a self fulfilling prophecy.

Liv Boeree (2:40:26.100)

Yes, that's exactly.

Lex Fridman (2:40:27.500)

Yes, and I very much agree with that.

Lex Fridman (2:40:29.660)

And I even have a slight feeling

Lex Fridman (2:40:32.980)

from the amount of time we spent in this conversation

Liv Boeree (2:40:35.780)

talking about this,

Lex Fridman (2:40:36.620)

because it's like, is this even a net positive

Liv Boeree (2:40:40.180)

if it's like making everyone feel,

Lex Fridman (2:40:41.900)

oh, in some ways, like making people imagine

Liv Boeree (2:40:44.980)

these bad scenarios can be a self fulfilling prophecy,

Lex Fridman (2:40:47.460)

but at the same time, that's weighed off

Liv Boeree (2:40:51.180)

with at least making people aware of the problem

Lex Fridman (2:40:54.340)

and gets them thinking.

Lex Fridman (2:40:55.300)

And I think particularly,

Lex Fridman (2:40:56.260)

the reason why I wanna talk about this to your audience

Liv Boeree (2:40:58.380)

is that on average, they're the type of people

Lex Fridman (2:41:00.660)

who gravitate towards these kinds of topics

Liv Boeree (2:41:02.780)

because they're intellectually curious

Lex Fridman (2:41:04.260)

and they can sort of sense that there's trouble brewing.

Liv Boeree (2:41:07.860)

They can smell that there's,

Lex Fridman (2:41:09.420)

I think there's a reason

Liv Boeree (2:41:10.260)

that people are thinking about this stuff a lot

Lex Fridman (2:41:11.460)

is because the probability,

Liv Boeree (2:41:14.180)

the probability, it's increased in probability

Lex Fridman (2:41:16.820)

over certainly over the last few years,

Liv Boeree (2:41:19.420)

trajectories have not gone favorably,

Lex Fridman (2:41:21.700)

let's put it since 2010.

Lex Fridman (2:41:24.260)

So it's right, I think, for people to be thinking about it,

Lex Fridman (2:41:28.420)

but that's where they're like,

Liv Boeree (2:41:30.060)

I think whether it's a useful fiction

Lex Fridman (2:41:31.660)

or whether it's actually true

Liv Boeree (2:41:33.340)

or whatever you wanna call it,

Lex Fridman (2:41:34.420)

I think having this faith,

Liv Boeree (2:41:35.940)

this is where faith is valuable

Lex Fridman (2:41:38.060)

because it gives you at least this like anchor of hope.

Lex Fridman (2:41:41.140)

And I'm not just saying it to like trick myself,

Lex Fridman (2:41:43.860)

like I do truly,

Liv Boeree (2:41:44.780)

I do think there's something out there that wants us to win.

Lex Fridman (2:41:47.700)

I think there's something that really wants us to win.

Lex Fridman (2:41:49.660)

And it just, you just have to be like,

Lex Fridman (2:41:53.060)

just like kind of, okay, now I sound really crazy,

Lex Fridman (2:41:55.740)

but like open your heart to it a little bit

Lex Fridman (2:41:58.740)

and it will give you the like,

Liv Boeree (2:42:03.140)

the sort of breathing room

Lex Fridman (2:42:04.820)

with which to marinate on the solutions.

Liv Boeree (2:42:07.660)

We are the ones who have to come up with the solutions,

Lex Fridman (2:42:10.340)

but we can use that.

Liv Boeree (2:42:15.140)

There's like, there's hashtag positivity.

Lex Fridman (2:42:18.020)

There's value in that.

Liv Boeree (2:42:19.300)

Yeah, you have to kind of imagine

Lex Fridman (2:42:21.300)

all the destructive trajectories that lay in our future

Lex Fridman (2:42:24.940)

and then believe in the possibility

Lex Fridman (2:42:27.940)

of avoiding those trajectories.

Liv Boeree (2:42:29.460)

All while, you said audience,

Lex Fridman (2:42:32.260)

all while sitting back, which is majority,

Liv Boeree (2:42:35.100)

the two people that listen to this

Lex Fridman (2:42:36.660)

are probably sitting on a beach,

Liv Boeree (2:42:38.660)

smoking some weed, just, that's a beautiful sunset.

Lex Fridman (2:42:44.900)

They're looking at just the waves going in and out.

Lex Fridman (2:42:47.900)

And ultimately there's a kind of deep belief there

Lex Fridman (2:42:50.460)

in the momentum of humanity to figure it all out.

Lex Fridman (2:42:56.660)

But we've got a lot of work to do.

Lex Fridman (2:42:58.420)

Which is what makes this whole simulation,

Liv Boeree (2:43:01.020)

this video game kind of fun.

Lex Fridman (2:43:03.380)

This battle of polytopia,

Liv Boeree (2:43:05.820)

I still, man, I love those games so much.

Lex Fridman (2:43:08.620)

So good.

Lex Fridman (2:43:09.580)

And that one for people who don't know,

Lex Fridman (2:43:11.740)

Battle of Polytopia is a big,

Liv Boeree (2:43:13.700)

it's like a, is this really radical simplification

Lex Fridman (2:43:17.940)

of a civilization type of game.

Liv Boeree (2:43:20.540)

It still has a lot of the skill tree development,

Lex Fridman (2:43:24.140)

a lot of the strategy,

Lex Fridman (2:43:27.060)

but it's easy enough to play on a phone.

Lex Fridman (2:43:29.860)

Yeah.

Liv Boeree (2:43:30.700)

It's kind of interesting.

Lex Fridman (2:43:31.540)

They've really figured it out.

Liv Boeree (2:43:33.260)

It's one of the most elegantly designed games

Lex Fridman (2:43:35.020)

I've ever seen.

Liv Boeree (2:43:35.860)

It's incredibly complex.

Lex Fridman (2:43:37.940)

And yet being, again, it walks that line

Liv Boeree (2:43:39.580)

between complexity and simplicity

Lex Fridman (2:43:40.980)

in this really, really great way.

Lex Fridman (2:43:44.180)

And they use pretty colors

Lex Fridman (2:43:45.180)

that hack the dopamine reward circuits in our brains.

Liv Boeree (2:43:49.020)

Very well.

Lex Fridman (2:43:49.860)

Yeah, it's fun.

Liv Boeree (2:43:50.860)

Video games are so fun.

Lex Fridman (2:43:52.300)

Yeah.

Liv Boeree (2:43:53.380)

Most of this life is just about fun.

Lex Fridman (2:43:55.540)

Escaping all the suffering to find the fun.

Lex Fridman (2:43:58.820)

What's energy healing?

Lex Fridman (2:43:59.940)

I have in my notes, energy healing question mark.

Lex Fridman (2:44:02.220)

What's that about?

Lex Fridman (2:44:05.500)

Oh man.

Liv Boeree (2:44:06.860)

God, your audience is gonna think I'm mad.

Lex Fridman (2:44:09.460)

So the two crazy things that happened to me,

Liv Boeree (2:44:13.180)

the one was the voice in the head

Lex Fridman (2:44:14.980)

that said you're gonna win this tournament

Lex Fridman (2:44:16.100)

and then I won the tournament.

Lex Fridman (2:44:18.260)

The other craziest thing that's happened to me

Liv Boeree (2:44:20.940)

was in 2018,

Lex Fridman (2:44:25.300)

I started getting this like weird problem in my ear

Liv Boeree (2:44:30.420)

where it was kind of like low frequency sound distortion,

Lex Fridman (2:44:35.260)

where voices, particularly men's voices,

Liv Boeree (2:44:37.300)

became incredibly unpleasant to listen to.

Lex Fridman (2:44:40.660)

It would like create this,

Liv Boeree (2:44:42.380)

it would like be falsely amplified or something

Lex Fridman (2:44:44.100)

and it was almost like a physical sensation in my ear,

Liv Boeree (2:44:46.340)

which was really unpleasant.

Lex Fridman (2:44:48.100)

And it would like last for a few hours and then go away

Lex Fridman (2:44:50.980)

and then come back for a few hours and go away.

Lex Fridman (2:44:52.540)

And I went and got hearing tests

Lex Fridman (2:44:54.460)

and they found that like the bottom end,

Lex Fridman (2:44:56.340)

I was losing the hearing in that ear.

Lex Fridman (2:45:00.140)

And in the end, I got,

Lex Fridman (2:45:03.740)

doctors said they think it was this thing

Liv Boeree (2:45:05.620)

called Meniere's disease,

Lex Fridman (2:45:07.220)

which is this very unpleasant disease

Liv Boeree (2:45:10.540)

where people basically end up losing their hearing,

Lex Fridman (2:45:12.100)

but they get this like,

Liv Boeree (2:45:14.140)

it often comes with like dizzy spells and other things

Lex Fridman (2:45:16.260)

because it's like the inner ear gets all messed up.

Liv Boeree (2:45:19.540)

Now, I don't know if that's actually what I had,

Lex Fridman (2:45:21.780)

but that's what at least a couple of,

Liv Boeree (2:45:23.420)

one doctor said to me.

Lex Fridman (2:45:24.940)

But anyway, so I'd had three months of this stuff,

Liv Boeree (2:45:26.980)

this going on and it was really getting me down.

Lex Fridman (2:45:28.820)

And I was at Burning Man of all places.

Liv Boeree (2:45:32.540)

I don't mean to be that person talking about Burning Man,

Lex Fridman (2:45:35.100)

but I was there.

Lex Fridman (2:45:36.380)

And again, I'd had it and I was unable to listen to music,

Lex Fridman (2:45:39.140)

which is not what you want

Liv Boeree (2:45:40.060)

because Burning Man is a very loud, intense place.

Lex Fridman (2:45:42.580)

And I was just having a really rough time.

Lex Fridman (2:45:44.060)

And on the final night,

Lex Fridman (2:45:45.660)

I get talking to this girl who's like a friend of a friend.

Lex Fridman (2:45:49.620)

And I mentioned, I was like,

Lex Fridman (2:45:51.020)

oh, I'm really down in the dumps about this.

Lex Fridman (2:45:52.540)

And she's like, oh, well,

Lex Fridman (2:45:53.380)

I've done a little bit of energy healing.

Lex Fridman (2:45:54.940)

Would you like me to have a look?

Lex Fridman (2:45:56.340)

And I was like, sure.

Liv Boeree (2:45:57.900)

Now this was again,

Lex Fridman (2:45:59.940)

deep, I was, you know, no time in my life for this.

Liv Boeree (2:46:03.340)

I didn't believe in any of this stuff.

Lex Fridman (2:46:04.900)

I was just like, it's all bullshit.

Liv Boeree (2:46:06.100)

It's all wooey nonsense.

Lex Fridman (2:46:08.980)

But I was like, sure, I'll have a go.

Lex Fridman (2:46:10.740)

And she starts like with her hand and she says,

Lex Fridman (2:46:14.020)

oh, there's something there.

Lex Fridman (2:46:15.340)

And then she leans in and she starts like sucking

Lex Fridman (2:46:18.100)

over my ear, not actually touching me,

Lex Fridman (2:46:19.900)

but like close to it, like with her mouth.

Lex Fridman (2:46:22.620)

And it was really unpleasant.

Lex Fridman (2:46:23.780)

I was like, whoa, can you stop?

Lex Fridman (2:46:24.780)

She's like, no, no, no, there's something there.

Liv Boeree (2:46:25.820)

I need to get it.

Lex Fridman (2:46:26.660)

And I was like, no, no, no, I really don't like it.

Liv Boeree (2:46:27.780)

Please, this is really loud.

Lex Fridman (2:46:29.140)

She's like, I need to just bear with me.

Lex Fridman (2:46:31.100)

And she does it.

Lex Fridman (2:46:31.940)

And I don't know how long, for a few minutes.

Lex Fridman (2:46:33.700)

And then she eventually collapses on the ground,

Lex Fridman (2:46:36.500)

like freezing cold, crying.

Lex Fridman (2:46:40.580)

And I'm just like, I don't know what the hell is going on.

Lex Fridman (2:46:42.700)

Like I'm like thoroughly freaked out

Liv Boeree (2:46:44.300)

as is everyone else watching.

Lex Fridman (2:46:45.420)

Just like, what the hell?

Lex Fridman (2:46:46.340)

And we like warm her up and she was like,

Lex Fridman (2:46:47.700)

oh, what, oh, you know, she was really shaken up.

Lex Fridman (2:46:51.340)

And she's like, I don't know what that,

Lex Fridman (2:46:54.700)

she said it was something very unpleasant and dark.

Liv Boeree (2:46:57.580)

Don't worry, it's gone.

Lex Fridman (2:46:58.700)

I think you'll be fine in a couple,

Liv Boeree (2:46:59.900)

you'll have the physical symptoms for a couple of weeks

Lex Fridman (2:47:01.420)

and you'll be fine.

Liv Boeree (2:47:02.700)

But, you know, she was just like that, you know,

Lex Fridman (2:47:05.740)

so I was so rattled, A, because the potential that actually

Liv Boeree (2:47:10.020)

I'd had something bad in me that made someone feel bad

Lex Fridman (2:47:13.100)

and that she was scared.

Liv Boeree (2:47:15.340)

That was what, you know, I was like, wait,

Lex Fridman (2:47:16.500)

I thought you do this, this is the thing.

Liv Boeree (2:47:19.300)

Now you're terrified.

Lex Fridman (2:47:20.340)

Like you bought like some kind of exorcism or something.

Lex Fridman (2:47:22.540)

Like what the fuck is going on?

Lex Fridman (2:47:24.620)

So it, like just the most insane experience.

Lex Fridman (2:47:29.700)

And frankly, it took me like a few months

Lex Fridman (2:47:31.740)

to sort of emotionally recover from it.

Lex Fridman (2:47:35.380)

But my ear problem went away about a couple of weeks later

Lex Fridman (2:47:39.540)

and touch wood, I've not had any issues since.

Liv Boeree (2:47:42.940)

So.

Lex Fridman (2:47:44.740)

That gives you like hints

Liv Boeree (2:47:48.140)

that maybe there's something out there.

Lex Fridman (2:47:51.060)

I mean, I don't, again,

Liv Boeree (2:47:53.340)

I don't have an explanation for this.

Lex Fridman (2:47:55.180)

The most probable explanation was, you know,

Liv Boeree (2:47:57.820)

I was a burning man, I was in a very open state.

Lex Fridman (2:47:59.860)

Let's just leave it at that.

Liv Boeree (2:48:01.820)

And, you know, placebo is an incredibly powerful thing

Lex Fridman (2:48:08.060)

and a very not understood thing.

Liv Boeree (2:48:10.300)

So.

Lex Fridman (2:48:11.140)

Almost assigning the word placebo to it reduces it down

Liv Boeree (2:48:13.740)

to a way that it doesn't deserve to be reduced down.

Lex Fridman (2:48:16.500)

Maybe there's a whole science of what we call placebo.

Liv Boeree (2:48:19.180)

Maybe there's a, placebo's a door.

Lex Fridman (2:48:21.540)

Self healing, you know?

Lex Fridman (2:48:24.020)

And I mean, I don't know what the problem was.

Lex Fridman (2:48:26.380)

Like I was told it was many years.

Liv Boeree (2:48:27.700)

I don't want to say I definitely had that

Lex Fridman (2:48:29.500)

because I don't want people to think that,

Liv Boeree (2:48:30.700)

oh, that's how, you know, if they do have that,

Lex Fridman (2:48:32.220)

because it's a terrible disease.

Lex Fridman (2:48:33.180)

And if they have that,

Lex Fridman (2:48:34.020)

that this is going to be a guaranteed way for it

Liv Boeree (2:48:35.100)

to fix it for them.

Lex Fridman (2:48:35.940)

I don't know.

Lex Fridman (2:48:37.740)

And I also don't, I don't,

Lex Fridman (2:48:39.740)

and you're absolutely right to say,

Liv Boeree (2:48:41.060)

like using even the word placebo is like,

Lex Fridman (2:48:43.380)

it comes with this like baggage of, of like frame.

Lex Fridman (2:48:48.020)

And I don't want to reduce it down.

Lex Fridman (2:48:49.980)

All I can do is describe the experience and what happened.

Liv Boeree (2:48:52.900)

I cannot put an ontological framework around it.

Lex Fridman (2:48:56.580)

I can't say why it happened, what the mechanism was,

Lex Fridman (2:49:00.100)

what the problem even was in the first place.

Lex Fridman (2:49:02.980)

I just know that something crazy happened

Lex Fridman (2:49:05.220)

and it was while I was in an open state.

Lex Fridman (2:49:07.060)

And fortunately for me, it made the problem go away.

Lex Fridman (2:49:09.540)

But what I took away from it, again,

Lex Fridman (2:49:11.860)

it was part of this, you know,

Liv Boeree (2:49:13.580)

this took me on this journey of becoming more humble

Lex Fridman (2:49:16.020)

about what I think I know.

Liv Boeree (2:49:17.500)

Because as I said before, I was like,

Lex Fridman (2:49:18.860)

I was in the like Richard Dawkins train of atheism

Liv Boeree (2:49:21.740)

in terms of there is no God.

Lex Fridman (2:49:23.380)

And everything like that is bullshit.

Liv Boeree (2:49:24.820)

We know everything, we know, you know,

Lex Fridman (2:49:26.660)

the only way we can get through,

Liv Boeree (2:49:28.980)

we know how medicine works and its molecules

Lex Fridman (2:49:30.820)

and chemical interactions and that kind of stuff.

Lex Fridman (2:49:33.980)

And now it's like, okay, well,

Lex Fridman (2:49:36.580)

there's clearly more for us to understand.

Lex Fridman (2:49:40.820)

And that doesn't mean that it's ascientific as well,

Lex Fridman (2:49:43.540)

because, you know, the beauty of the scientific method

Liv Boeree (2:49:47.140)

is that it still can apply to this situation.

Lex Fridman (2:49:49.940)

Like, I don't see why, you know,

Liv Boeree (2:49:51.340)

I would like to try and test this experimentally.

Lex Fridman (2:49:54.300)

I haven't really, like, you know,

Liv Boeree (2:49:55.540)

I don't know how we would go about doing that.

Lex Fridman (2:49:57.100)

We'd have to find other people with the same condition,

Liv Boeree (2:49:58.860)

I guess, and like, try and repeat the experiment.

Lex Fridman (2:50:04.220)

But it doesn't, just because something happens

Liv Boeree (2:50:06.980)

that's sort of out of the realms

Lex Fridman (2:50:09.180)

of our current understanding,

Liv Boeree (2:50:10.100)

it doesn't mean that it's,

Lex Fridman (2:50:11.940)

the scientific method can't be used for it.

Liv Boeree (2:50:13.820)

Yeah, I think the scientific method sits on a foundation

Lex Fridman (2:50:17.900)

of those kinds of experiences,

Liv Boeree (2:50:20.220)

because the scientific method is a process

Lex Fridman (2:50:24.660)

to carve away at the mystery all around us.

Lex Fridman (2:50:30.980)

And experiences like this is just a reminder

Lex Fridman (2:50:33.740)

that we're mostly shrouded in mystery still.

Liv Boeree (2:50:36.700)

That's it.

Lex Fridman (2:50:37.540)

It's just like a humility.

Liv Boeree (2:50:38.940)

Like, we haven't really figured this whole thing out.

Lex Fridman (2:50:41.580)

But at the same time, we have found ways

Liv Boeree (2:50:44.500)

to act, you know, we're clearly doing something right,

Lex Fridman (2:50:47.500)

because think of the technological scientific advancements,

Liv Boeree (2:50:50.020)

the knowledge that we have that would blow people's minds

Lex Fridman (2:50:53.980)

even from 100 years ago.

Liv Boeree (2:50:55.620)

Yeah, and we've even allegedly got out to space

Lex Fridman (2:50:58.660)

and landed on the moon, although I still haven't,

Liv Boeree (2:51:01.220)

I have not seen evidence of the Earth being round,

Lex Fridman (2:51:04.340)

but I'm keeping an open mind.

Liv Boeree (2:51:08.140)

Speaking of which, you studied physics

Lex Fridman (2:51:10.380)

and astrophysics, just to go to that,

Liv Boeree (2:51:16.860)

just to jump around through the fascinating life you've had,

Lex Fridman (2:51:20.940)

when did you, how did that come to be?

Liv Boeree (2:51:23.620)

Like, when did you fall in love with astronomy

Lex Fridman (2:51:25.860)

and space and things like this?

Liv Boeree (2:51:28.580)

As early as I can remember.

Lex Fridman (2:51:30.460)

I was very lucky that my mom, and my dad,

Lex Fridman (2:51:33.380)

but particularly my mom, my mom is like the most nature,

Lex Fridman (2:51:38.300)

she is Mother Earth, is the only way to describe her.

Liv Boeree (2:51:41.220)

Just, she's like Dr. Doolittle, animals flock to her

Lex Fridman (2:51:44.540)

and just like sit and look at her adoringly.

Liv Boeree (2:51:47.100)

As she sings.

Lex Fridman (2:51:48.380)

Yeah, she just is Mother Earth,

Lex Fridman (2:51:51.060)

and she has always been fascinated by,

Lex Fridman (2:51:54.540)

she doesn't have any, she never went to university

Liv Boeree (2:51:57.100)

or anything like that, she's actually phobic of maths,

Lex Fridman (2:51:59.380)

if I try and get her to like,

Liv Boeree (2:52:00.860)

you know, I was trying to teach her poker and she hated it.

Lex Fridman (2:52:03.860)

But she's so deeply curious,

Lex Fridman (2:52:06.840)

and that just got instilled in me when, you know,

Lex Fridman (2:52:09.880)

we would sleep out under the stars,

Liv Boeree (2:52:11.200)

whenever it was, you know, the two nights a year

Lex Fridman (2:52:13.160)

when it was warm enough in the UK to do that.

Lex Fridman (2:52:15.760)

And we would just lie out there until we fell asleep,

Lex Fridman (2:52:18.680)

looking at, looking for satellites,

Liv Boeree (2:52:20.920)

looking for shooting stars, and I was just always,

Lex Fridman (2:52:24.320)

I don't know whether it was from that,

Lex Fridman (2:52:25.320)

but I've always naturally gravitated to like the biggest,

Lex Fridman (2:52:30.440)

the biggest questions.

Lex Fridman (2:52:31.960)

And also the like, the most layers of abstraction I love,

Lex Fridman (2:52:35.520)

just like, what's the meta question?

Liv Boeree (2:52:36.720)

What's the meta question and so on.

Lex Fridman (2:52:38.800)

So I think it just came from that really.

Lex Fridman (2:52:40.800)

And then on top of that, like physics,

Lex Fridman (2:52:43.760)

you know, it also made logical sense

Liv Boeree (2:52:45.880)

in that it was a degree that,

Lex Fridman (2:52:51.240)

well, a subject that ticks the box of being,

Liv Boeree (2:52:53.800)

you know, answering these really big picture questions,

Lex Fridman (2:52:55.520)

but it was also extremely useful.

Liv Boeree (2:52:57.840)

It like has a very high utility in terms of,

Lex Fridman (2:53:00.920)

I didn't know necessarily,

Liv Boeree (2:53:02.080)

I thought I was gonna become like a research scientist.

Lex Fridman (2:53:04.400)

My original plan was,

Liv Boeree (2:53:05.240)

I wanna be a professional astronomer.

Lex Fridman (2:53:07.040)

So it's not just like a philosophy degree

Liv Boeree (2:53:08.640)

that asks the big questions,

Lex Fridman (2:53:10.400)

and it's not like biology and the path

Liv Boeree (2:53:14.440)

to go to medical school or something like that,

Lex Fridman (2:53:16.160)

which is all overly pragmatic, not overly,

Liv Boeree (2:53:19.200)

is very pragmatic, but this is, yeah,

Lex Fridman (2:53:23.760)

physics is a good combination of the two.

Liv Boeree (2:53:26.480)

Yeah, at least for me, it made sense.

Lex Fridman (2:53:27.920)

And I was good at it, I liked it.

Liv Boeree (2:53:30.160)

Yeah, I mean, it wasn't like I did an immense amount

Lex Fridman (2:53:32.440)

of soul searching to choose it or anything.

Liv Boeree (2:53:34.320)

It just was like this, it made the most sense.

Lex Fridman (2:53:38.160)

I mean, you have to make this decision in the UK age 17,

Liv Boeree (2:53:41.240)

which is crazy, because, you know, in US,

Lex Fridman (2:53:43.640)

you go the first year, you do a bunch of stuff, right?

Lex Fridman (2:53:46.240)

And then you choose your major.

Lex Fridman (2:53:48.520)

Yeah, I think the first few years of college,

Liv Boeree (2:53:50.000)

you focus on the drugs and only as you get closer

Lex Fridman (2:53:53.080)

to the end, do you start to think, oh shit,

Liv Boeree (2:53:56.360)

this wasn't about that.

Lex Fridman (2:53:57.440)

And I owe the government a lot of money.

Lex Fridman (2:54:01.380)

How many alien civilizations are out there?

Lex Fridman (2:54:05.180)

When you looked up at the stars with your mom

Lex Fridman (2:54:07.580)

and you were counting them, what's your mom think

Lex Fridman (2:54:11.820)

about the number of alien civilizations?

Liv Boeree (2:54:13.980)

I actually don't know.

Lex Fridman (2:54:15.780)

I would imagine she would take the viewpoint of,

Liv Boeree (2:54:18.500)

you know, she's pretty humble and she knows how many,

Lex Fridman (2:54:21.300)

she knows there's a huge number of potential spawn sites

Liv Boeree (2:54:24.100)

out there, so she would.

Lex Fridman (2:54:25.380)

Spawn sites?

Liv Boeree (2:54:26.220)

Spawn sites, yeah.

Lex Fridman (2:54:27.540)

You know, this is all spawn sites.

Liv Boeree (2:54:29.500)

Yeah, spawn sites in Polytopia.

Lex Fridman (2:54:30.780)

We spawned on Earth, you know, it's.

Liv Boeree (2:54:33.020)

Hmm, yeah, spawn sites.

Lex Fridman (2:54:35.860)

Why does that feel weird to say spawn?

Liv Boeree (2:54:39.260)

Because it makes me feel like there's only one source

Lex Fridman (2:54:44.860)

of life and it's spawning in different locations.

Liv Boeree (2:54:47.420)

That's why the word spawn.

Lex Fridman (2:54:49.220)

Because it feels like life that originated on Earth

Liv Boeree (2:54:52.580)

really originated here.

Lex Fridman (2:54:54.700)

Right, it is unique to this particular.

Liv Boeree (2:54:58.780)

Yeah, I mean, but I don't, in my mind, it doesn't exclude,

Lex Fridman (2:55:02.600)

you know, the completely different forms of life

Lex Fridman (2:55:04.380)

and different biochemical soups can't also spawn,

Lex Fridman (2:55:09.160)

but I guess it implies that there's some spark

Liv Boeree (2:55:12.580)

that is uniform, which I kind of like the idea of.

Lex Fridman (2:55:16.180)

And then I get to think about respawning,

Lex Fridman (2:55:19.220)

like after it dies, like what happens if life on Earth ends?

Lex Fridman (2:55:23.500)

Is it gonna restart again?

Liv Boeree (2:55:26.140)

Probably not, it depends.

Lex Fridman (2:55:28.060)

Maybe Earth is too.

Liv Boeree (2:55:28.900)

It depends on the type of, you know,

Lex Fridman (2:55:30.460)

what's the thing that kills it off, right?

Liv Boeree (2:55:32.820)

If it's a paperclip maximizer, not for the example,

Lex Fridman (2:55:36.100)

but, you know, some kind of very self replicating,

Liv Boeree (2:55:40.820)

high on the capabilities, very low on the wisdom type thing.

Lex Fridman (2:55:44.380)

So whether that's, you know, gray goo, green goo,

Liv Boeree (2:55:47.420)

you know, like nanobots or just a shitty misaligned AI

Lex Fridman (2:55:51.180)

that thinks it needs to turn everything into paperclips.

Liv Boeree (2:55:54.360)

You know, if it's something like that,

Lex Fridman (2:55:57.680)

then it's gonna be very hard for life,

Liv Boeree (2:55:59.040)

you know, complex life, because by definition,

Lex Fridman (2:56:02.080)

you know, a paperclip maximizer

Liv Boeree (2:56:03.160)

is the ultimate instantiation of molecule.

Lex Fridman (2:56:05.680)

Deeply low complexity, over optimization on a single thing,

Liv Boeree (2:56:08.620)

sacrificing everything else, turning the whole world into.

Lex Fridman (2:56:11.120)

Although something tells me,

Liv Boeree (2:56:12.200)

like if we actually take a paperclip maximizer,

Lex Fridman (2:56:14.640)

it destroys everything.

Liv Boeree (2:56:16.180)

It's a really dumb system that just envelops

Lex Fridman (2:56:19.200)

the whole of Earth.

Lex Fridman (2:56:20.760)

And the universe beyond, yeah.

Lex Fridman (2:56:22.360)

Oh, I didn't know that part, but okay, great.

Liv Boeree (2:56:26.600)

That's the thought experiment.

Lex Fridman (2:56:27.440)

So it becomes a multi planetary paperclip maximizer?

Liv Boeree (2:56:30.280)

Well, it just propagates.

Lex Fridman (2:56:31.760)

I mean, it depends whether it figures out

Lex Fridman (2:56:33.640)

how to jump the vacuum gap.

Lex Fridman (2:56:36.720)

But again, I mean, this is all silly

Liv Boeree (2:56:38.640)

because it's a hypothetical thought experiment,

Lex Fridman (2:56:40.280)

which I think doesn't actually have

Liv Boeree (2:56:41.200)

much practical application to the AI safety problem,

Lex Fridman (2:56:43.240)

but it's just a fun thing to play around with.

Lex Fridman (2:56:45.240)

But if by definition, it is maximally intelligent,

Lex Fridman (2:56:47.780)

which means it is maximally good at

Liv Boeree (2:56:50.200)

navigating the environment around it

Lex Fridman (2:56:53.080)

in order to achieve its goal,

Lex Fridman (2:56:54.720)

but extremely bad at choosing goals in the first place.

Lex Fridman (2:56:58.000)

So again, we're talking on this orthogonality thing, right?

Liv Boeree (2:57:00.000)

It's very low on wisdom, but very high on capability.

Lex Fridman (2:57:03.720)

Then it will figure out how to jump the vacuum gap

Liv Boeree (2:57:05.680)

between planets and stars and so on,

Lex Fridman (2:57:07.400)

and thus just turn every atom it gets its hands on

Liv Boeree (2:57:09.900)

into paperclips.

Lex Fridman (2:57:10.960)

Yeah, by the way, for people who don't.

Liv Boeree (2:57:12.800)

Which is maximum virality, by the way.

Lex Fridman (2:57:14.600)

That's what virality is.

Lex Fridman (2:57:16.240)

But does not mean that virality is necessarily

Lex Fridman (2:57:18.540)

all about maximizing paperclips.

Liv Boeree (2:57:20.040)

In that case, it is.

Lex Fridman (2:57:21.080)

So for people who don't know,

Liv Boeree (2:57:22.280)

this is just a thought experiment example

Lex Fridman (2:57:24.280)

of an AI system that's very, that has a goal

Lex Fridman (2:57:27.360)

and is willing to do anything to accomplish that goal,

Lex Fridman (2:57:30.400)

including destroying all life on Earth

Lex Fridman (2:57:32.280)

and all human life and all of consciousness in the universe

Lex Fridman (2:57:36.320)

for the goal of producing a maximum number of paperclips.

Liv Boeree (2:57:40.720)

Okay.

Lex Fridman (2:57:41.560)

Or whatever its optimization function was

Liv Boeree (2:57:43.960)

that it was set at.

Lex Fridman (2:57:45.000)

But don't you think?

Liv Boeree (2:57:45.840)

It could be making, recreating Lexus.

Lex Fridman (2:57:47.920)

Maybe it'll tile the universe in Lex.

Liv Boeree (2:57:50.600)

Go on.

Lex Fridman (2:57:51.640)

I like this idea.

Liv Boeree (2:57:52.480)

No, I'm just kidding.

Lex Fridman (2:57:53.320)

That's better.

Liv Boeree (2:57:54.800)

That's more interesting than paperclips.

Lex Fridman (2:57:56.240)

That could be infinitely optimal

Liv Boeree (2:57:57.680)

if I were to say it to myself.

Lex Fridman (2:57:58.520)

But if you ask me, it's still a bad thing

Liv Boeree (2:58:00.400)

because it's permanently capping

Lex Fridman (2:58:02.780)

what the universe could ever be.

Liv Boeree (2:58:04.200)

It's like, that's its end state.

Lex Fridman (2:58:05.880)

Or achieving the optimal

Liv Boeree (2:58:07.840)

that the universe could ever achieve.

Lex Fridman (2:58:09.240)

But that's up to,

Liv Boeree (2:58:10.320)

different people have different perspectives.

Lex Fridman (2:58:12.480)

But don't you think within the paperclip world

Liv Boeree (2:58:15.520)

that would emerge, just like in the zeros and ones

Lex Fridman (2:58:19.320)

that make up a computer,

Lex Fridman (2:58:20.200)

that would emerge beautiful complexities?

Lex Fridman (2:58:23.760)

Like, it won't suppress, you know,

Liv Boeree (2:58:27.820)

as you scale to multiple planets and throughout,

Lex Fridman (2:58:30.500)

there'll emerge these little worlds

Liv Boeree (2:58:33.280)

that on top of the fabric of maximizing paperclips,

Lex Fridman (2:58:38.140)

there will be, that would emerge like little societies

Liv Boeree (2:58:42.880)

of paperclip.

Lex Fridman (2:58:45.880)

Well, then we're not describing

Liv Boeree (2:58:47.520)

a paperclip maximizer anymore.

Lex Fridman (2:58:48.600)

Because by the, like, if you think of what a paperclip is,

Lex Fridman (2:58:51.600)

it is literally just a piece of bent iron, right?

Lex Fridman (2:58:55.600)

So if it's maximizing that throughout the universe,

Liv Boeree (2:58:58.960)

it's taking every atom it gets its hand on

Lex Fridman (2:59:01.040)

into somehow turning it into iron or steel.

Lex Fridman (2:59:04.240)

And then bending it into that shape

Lex Fridman (2:59:05.400)

and then done and done.

Liv Boeree (2:59:06.800)

By definition, like paperclips,

Lex Fridman (2:59:08.880)

there is no way for, well, okay.

Lex Fridman (2:59:11.960)

So you're saying that paperclips somehow

Lex Fridman (2:59:13.920)

will just emerge and create through gravity or something.

Liv Boeree (2:59:17.960)

Well, no, no, no.

Lex Fridman (2:59:18.800)

Because there's a dynamic element to the whole system.

Liv Boeree (2:59:21.600)

It's not just, it's creating those paperclips

Lex Fridman (2:59:24.720)

and the act of creating, there's going to be a process.

Lex Fridman (2:59:27.900)

And that process will have a dance to it.

Lex Fridman (2:59:30.640)

Because it's not like sequential thing.

Liv Boeree (2:59:32.640)

There's a whole complex three dimensional system

Lex Fridman (2:59:35.240)

of paperclips, you know, like, you know,

Lex Fridman (2:59:37.760)

people like string theory, right?

Lex Fridman (2:59:39.400)

It's supposed to be strings that are interacting

Liv Boeree (2:59:40.920)

in fascinating ways.

Lex Fridman (2:59:41.960)

I'm sure paperclips are very string like,

Liv Boeree (2:59:44.520)

they can be interacting in very interesting ways

Lex Fridman (2:59:46.520)

as you scale exponentially through three dimensional.

Liv Boeree (2:59:50.040)

I mean, I'm sure the paperclip maximizer

Lex Fridman (2:59:53.840)

has to come up with a theory of everything.

Lex Fridman (2:59:55.680)

It has to create like wormholes, right?

Lex Fridman (2:59:58.320)

It has to break, like,

Liv Boeree (30:04.700)

to manipulate the things the way you want them to go

Lex Fridman (30:07.580)

that we don't understand yet.

Lex Fridman (30:09.780)

Do you think Phil Hellmuth understands them?

Lex Fridman (30:12.020)

Is he just generally?

Liv Boeree (30:13.660)

Hashtag positivity.

Lex Fridman (30:14.780)

Well, he wrote a book on positivity and he's.

Liv Boeree (30:17.220)

He has, he did, not like a trolling book.

Lex Fridman (30:20.460)

No.

Liv Boeree (30:21.300)

He's just straight up, yeah.

Lex Fridman (30:23.980)

Phil Hellmuth wrote a book about positivity.

Liv Boeree (30:26.020)

Yes.

Lex Fridman (30:27.220)

Okay, not ironic.

Lex Fridman (30:28.620)

And I think it's about sort of manifesting what you want

Lex Fridman (30:32.700)

and getting the outcomes that you want

Liv Boeree (30:34.100)

by believing so much in yourself

Lex Fridman (30:36.460)

and in your ability to win,

Liv Boeree (30:37.620)

like eyes on the prize.

Lex Fridman (30:40.540)

And I mean, it's working.

Liv Boeree (30:42.140)

The man's delivered.

Lex Fridman (30:43.180)

But where do you put like Phil Ivey

Lex Fridman (30:45.340)

and all those kinds of people?

Lex Fridman (30:47.300)

I mean, I'm too, I've been,

Liv Boeree (30:49.700)

to be honest too much out of the scene

Lex Fridman (30:50.900)

for the last few years to really,

Liv Boeree (30:53.740)

I mean, Phil Ivey's clearly got,

Lex Fridman (30:54.940)

again, he's got that X factor.

Liv Boeree (30:57.900)

He's so incredibly intimidating to play against.

Lex Fridman (31:00.340)

I've only played against him a couple of times,

Lex Fridman (31:01.700)

but when he like looks you in the eye

Lex Fridman (31:03.660)

and you're trying to run a bluff on him,

Liv Boeree (31:04.980)

oof, no one's made me sweat harder than Phil Ivey,

Lex Fridman (31:07.100)

just my bluff got through actually.

Liv Boeree (31:10.340)

That was actually one of the most thrilling moments

Lex Fridman (31:11.780)

I've ever had in poker was,

Liv Boeree (31:12.940)

it was in a Monte Carlo in a high roller.

Lex Fridman (31:15.460)

I can't remember exactly what the hand was,

Lex Fridman (31:16.700)

but I, you know, a three bit

Lex Fridman (31:19.500)

and then like just barreled all the way through.

Lex Fridman (31:22.100)

And he just like put his laser eyes into me.

Lex Fridman (31:24.380)

And I felt like he was just scouring my soul.

Lex Fridman (31:28.180)

And I was just like, hold it together, Liv,

Lex Fridman (31:29.780)

hold it together.

Lex Fridman (31:30.620)

And he was like, folded.

Lex Fridman (31:31.460)

And you knew your hand was weaker.

Liv Boeree (31:33.060)

Yeah, I mean, I was bluffing.

Lex Fridman (31:34.420)

I presume, which, you know,

Liv Boeree (31:36.420)

there's a chance I was bluffing with the best hand,

Lex Fridman (31:37.780)

but I'm pretty sure my hand was worse.

Lex Fridman (31:40.700)

And he folded.

Lex Fridman (31:44.620)

I was truly one of the deep highlights of my career.

Lex Fridman (31:47.500)

Did you show the cards or did you fold?

Lex Fridman (31:50.020)

You should never show in game.

Liv Boeree (31:51.980)

Like, because especially as I felt like

Lex Fridman (31:53.660)

I was one of the worst players at the table

Liv Boeree (31:54.900)

in that tournament.

Lex Fridman (31:55.740)

So giving that information,

Liv Boeree (31:57.900)

unless I had a really solid plan

Lex Fridman (31:59.900)

that I was now like advertising,

Liv Boeree (32:01.980)

oh, look, I'm capable of bluffing Phil Ivey.

Lex Fridman (32:03.580)

But like, why?

Liv Boeree (32:05.140)

It's much more valuable to take advantage

Lex Fridman (32:07.620)

of the impression that they have of me,

Liv Boeree (32:09.020)

which is like, I'm a scared girl

Lex Fridman (32:10.220)

playing a high roller for the first time.

Liv Boeree (32:12.060)

Keep that going, you know.

Lex Fridman (32:14.740)

Interesting.

Lex Fridman (32:15.580)

But isn't there layers to this?

Lex Fridman (32:17.100)

Like psychological warfare

Liv Boeree (32:18.780)

that the scared girl might be way smart

Lex Fridman (32:22.420)

and then like just to flip the tables?

Lex Fridman (32:24.700)

Do you think about that kind of stuff?

Lex Fridman (32:25.540)

Or is it better not to reveal information?

Liv Boeree (32:28.500)

I mean, generally speaking,

Lex Fridman (32:29.500)

you want to not reveal information.

Liv Boeree (32:31.060)

You know, the goal of poker is to be

Lex Fridman (32:32.700)

as deceptive as possible about your own strategies

Liv Boeree (32:36.020)

while elucidating as much out of your opponent

Lex Fridman (32:38.700)

about their own.

Lex Fridman (32:39.740)

So giving them free information,

Lex Fridman (32:42.100)

particularly if they're people

Liv Boeree (32:42.940)

who you consider very good players,

Lex Fridman (32:44.820)

any information I give them is going into

Liv Boeree (32:47.100)

their little database and being,

Lex Fridman (32:49.220)

I assume it's going to be calculated and used well.

Lex Fridman (32:51.780)

So I have to be really confident

Lex Fridman (32:53.500)

that my like meta gaming that I'm going to then do,

Liv Boeree (32:56.700)

oh, they've seen this, so therefore that.

Lex Fridman (32:58.340)

I'm going to be on the right level.

Lex Fridman (33:00.660)

So it's better just to keep that little secret

Lex Fridman (33:03.380)

to myself in the moment.

Lex Fridman (33:04.340)

So how much is bluffing part of the game?

Lex Fridman (33:06.700)

Huge amount.

Lex Fridman (33:08.340)

So yeah, I mean, maybe actually let me ask,

Lex Fridman (33:10.420)

like, what did it feel like with Phil Ivey

Liv Boeree (33:12.980)

or anyone else when it's a high stake,

Lex Fridman (33:15.020)

when it's a big, it's a big bluff?

Lex Fridman (33:18.860)

So a lot of money on the table and maybe,

Lex Fridman (33:23.060)

I mean, what defines a big bluff?

Liv Boeree (33:24.660)

Maybe a lot of money on the table,

Lex Fridman (33:25.980)

but also some uncertainty in your mind and heart

Liv Boeree (33:29.180)

about like self doubt.

Lex Fridman (33:31.940)

Well, maybe I miscalculated what's going on here,

Lex Fridman (33:34.540)

what the bet said, all that kind of stuff.

Lex Fridman (33:36.740)

Like, what does that feel like?

Liv Boeree (33:38.820)

I mean, it's, I imagine comparable to,

Lex Fridman (33:45.980)

you know, running a, I mean, any kind of big bluff

Liv Boeree (33:49.020)

where you have a lot of something

Lex Fridman (33:52.380)

that you care about on the line.

Liv Boeree (33:54.260)

You know, so if you're bluffing in a courtroom,

Lex Fridman (33:57.220)

not that anyone should ever do that,

Liv Boeree (33:58.180)

or, you know, something equatable to that.

Lex Fridman (34:00.340)

It's, you know, in that scenario, you know,

Liv Boeree (34:04.100)

I think it was the first time I'd ever played a 20,

Lex Fridman (34:05.700)

I'd won my way into this 25K tournament.

Lex Fridman (34:09.180)

So that was the buy in 25,000 euros.

Lex Fridman (34:11.180)

And I had satelliteed my way in

Liv Boeree (34:13.020)

because it was much bigger

Lex Fridman (34:14.020)

than I would ever normally play.

Liv Boeree (34:16.060)

And, you know, I hadn't, I wasn't that experienced

Lex Fridman (34:18.260)

at the time, and now I was sitting there

Liv Boeree (34:20.140)

against all the big boys, you know,

Lex Fridman (34:21.620)

the Negronus, the Phil Ivey's and so on.

Lex Fridman (34:24.740)

And then to like, you know,

Lex Fridman (34:28.780)

each time you put the bets out, you know,

Liv Boeree (34:30.580)

you put another bet out, your card.

Lex Fridman (34:33.020)

Yeah, I was on what's called a semi bluff.

Lex Fridman (34:34.860)

So there were some cards that could come

Lex Fridman (34:36.300)

that would make my hand very, very strong

Lex Fridman (34:38.100)

and therefore win.

Lex Fridman (34:39.180)

But most of the time, those cards don't come.

Lex Fridman (34:40.940)

So that is a semi bluff because you're representing,

Lex Fridman (34:43.860)

are you representing that you already have something?

Lex Fridman (34:47.860)

So I think in this scenario, I had a flush draw.

Lex Fridman (34:51.340)

So I had two clubs, two clubs came out on the flop.

Lex Fridman (34:55.940)

And then I'm hoping that on the turn

Lex Fridman (34:57.260)

and the river, one will come.

Lex Fridman (34:59.140)

So I have some future equity.

Lex Fridman (35:00.980)

I could hit a club and then I'll have the best hand

Liv Boeree (35:02.780)

in which case, great.

Lex Fridman (35:04.620)

And so I can keep betting and I'll want them to call,

Lex Fridman (35:07.460)

but I'm also got the other way of winning the hand

Lex Fridman (35:09.660)

where if my card doesn't come,

Liv Boeree (35:11.940)

I can keep betting and get them to fold their hand.

Lex Fridman (35:14.740)

And I'm pretty sure that's what the scenario was.

Lex Fridman (35:18.020)

So I had some future equity, but it's still, you know,

Lex Fridman (35:21.020)

most of the time I don't hit that club.

Lex Fridman (35:23.300)

And so I would rather him just fold because I'm, you know,

Lex Fridman (35:25.940)

the pot is now getting bigger and bigger.

Lex Fridman (35:27.820)

And in the end, like I've jam all in on the river.

Lex Fridman (35:30.980)

That's my entire tournament on the line.

Liv Boeree (35:33.420)

As far as I'm aware, this might be the one time

Lex Fridman (35:35.180)

I ever get to play a big 25K.

Liv Boeree (35:37.220)

You know, this was the first time I played one.

Lex Fridman (35:38.700)

So it was, it felt like the most momentous thing.

Lex Fridman (35:42.020)

And this was also when I was trying to build myself up at,

Lex Fridman (35:43.900)

you know, build my name, a name for myself in poker.

Liv Boeree (35:46.700)

I wanted to get respect.

Lex Fridman (35:47.740)

Destroy everything for you.

Liv Boeree (35:49.260)

It felt like it in the moment.

Lex Fridman (35:50.540)

Like, I mean, it literally does feel

Liv Boeree (35:51.780)

like a form of life and death.

Lex Fridman (35:52.820)

Like your body physiologically

Liv Boeree (35:54.340)

is having that flight or fight response.

Lex Fridman (35:56.140)

What are you doing with your body?

Lex Fridman (35:57.140)

What are you doing with your face?

Lex Fridman (35:58.340)

Are you just like, what are you thinking about?

Lex Fridman (36:01.340)

More of a mixture of like, okay, what are the cards?

Lex Fridman (36:04.700)

So in theory, I'm thinking about like, okay,

Lex Fridman (36:07.020)

what are cards that make my hand look stronger?

Lex Fridman (36:09.980)

Which cards hit my perceived range from his perspective?

Lex Fridman (36:13.860)

Which cards don't?

Lex Fridman (36:15.620)

What's the right amount of bet size

Lex Fridman (36:17.340)

to maximize my fold equity in this situation?

Lex Fridman (36:20.820)

You know, that's the logical stuff

Liv Boeree (36:22.100)

that I should be thinking about.

Lex Fridman (36:23.180)

But I think in reality, because I was so scared,

Liv Boeree (36:25.380)

because there's this, at least for me,

Lex Fridman (36:26.860)

there's a certain threshold of like nervousness or stress

Liv Boeree (36:30.420)

beyond which the logical brain shuts off.

Lex Fridman (36:33.420)

And now it just gets into this like,

Liv Boeree (36:36.900)

just like, it feels like a game of wits, basically.

Lex Fridman (36:38.740)

It's like of nerve.

Lex Fridman (36:39.780)

Can you hold your resolve?

Lex Fridman (36:41.780)

And it certainly got by that, like by the river.

Liv Boeree (36:44.300)

I think by that point, I was like,

Lex Fridman (36:45.780)

I don't even know if this is a good bluff anymore,

Lex Fridman (36:47.660)

but fuck it, let's do it.

Lex Fridman (36:50.060)

Your mind is almost numb from the intensity of that feeling.

Liv Boeree (36:53.100)

I call it the white noise.

Lex Fridman (36:55.100)

And it happens in all kinds of decision making.

Liv Boeree (36:58.860)

I think anything that's really, really stressful.

Lex Fridman (37:00.740)

I can imagine someone in like an important job interview,

Liv Boeree (37:02.940)

if it's like a job they've always wanted,

Lex Fridman (37:04.780)

and they're getting grilled, you know,

Liv Boeree (37:06.540)

like Bridgewater style, where they ask these really hard,

Lex Fridman (37:09.180)

like mathematical questions.

Liv Boeree (37:11.140)

You know, it's a really learned skill

Lex Fridman (37:13.420)

to be able to like subdue your flight or fight response.

Liv Boeree (37:17.780)

You know, I think get from the sympathetic

Lex Fridman (37:19.380)

into the parasympathetic.

Lex Fridman (37:20.340)

So you can actually, you know, engage that voice

Lex Fridman (37:23.820)

in your head and do those slow logical calculations.

Liv Boeree (37:26.020)

Because evolutionarily, you know, if we see a lion

Lex Fridman (37:29.020)

running at us, we didn't have time to sort of calculate

Liv Boeree (37:31.660)

the lion's kinetic energy and, you know,

Lex Fridman (37:33.980)

is it optimal to go this way or that way?

Liv Boeree (37:35.420)

You just react it.

Lex Fridman (37:37.060)

And physically, our bodies are well attuned

Liv Boeree (37:39.860)

to actually make right decisions.

Lex Fridman (37:41.140)

But when you're playing a game like poker,

Liv Boeree (37:43.220)

this is not something that you ever, you know,

Lex Fridman (37:44.780)

evolved to do.

Lex Fridman (37:45.940)

And yet you're in that same flight or fight response.

Lex Fridman (37:48.980)

And so that's a really important skill to be able to develop

Liv Boeree (37:51.740)

to basically learn how to like meditate in the moment

Lex Fridman (37:54.900)

and calm yourself so that you can think clearly.

Lex Fridman (37:57.420)

But as you were searching for a comparable thing,

Lex Fridman (38:00.780)

it's interesting because you just made me realize

Liv Boeree (38:03.300)

that bluffing is like an incredibly high stakes

Lex Fridman (38:06.580)

form of lying.

Liv Boeree (38:08.180)

You're lying.

Lex Fridman (38:10.780)

And I don't think you can.

Liv Boeree (38:11.620)

Telling a story.

Lex Fridman (38:12.460)

No, no, it's straight up lying.

Liv Boeree (38:15.180)

In the context of game, it's not a negative kind of lying.

Lex Fridman (38:19.060)

But it is, yeah, exactly.

Liv Boeree (38:19.900)

You're representing something that you don't have.

Lex Fridman (38:23.340)

And I was thinking like how often in life

Lex Fridman (38:26.740)

do we have such high stakes of lying?

Lex Fridman (38:30.300)

Because I was thinking certainly

Liv Boeree (38:33.420)

in high level military strategy,

Lex Fridman (38:36.060)

I was thinking when Hitler was lying to Stalin

Liv Boeree (38:40.220)

about his plans to invade the Soviet Union.

Lex Fridman (38:44.540)

And so you're talking to a person like your friends

Lex Fridman (38:48.300)

and you're fighting against the enemy,

Lex Fridman (38:50.700)

whatever the formulation of the enemy is.

Lex Fridman (38:53.900)

But meanwhile, whole time you're building up troops

Lex Fridman (38:56.780)

on the border.

Liv Boeree (38:58.900)

That's extremely.

Lex Fridman (38:59.740)

Wait, wait, so Hitler and Stalin were like

Lex Fridman (39:01.420)

pretending to be friends?

Lex Fridman (39:02.460)

Yeah.

Liv Boeree (39:03.300)

Well, my history knowledge is terrible.

Lex Fridman (39:04.140)

Oh yeah.

Liv Boeree (39:04.980)

That's crazy.

Lex Fridman (39:05.820)

Yeah, that they were, oh man.

Lex Fridman (39:09.500)

And it worked because Stalin,

Lex Fridman (39:11.460)

until the troops crossed the border

Lex Fridman (39:14.260)

and invaded in Operation Barbarossa

Lex Fridman (39:17.500)

where this storm of Nazi troops

Liv Boeree (39:22.780)

invaded large parts of the Soviet Union.

Lex Fridman (39:25.100)

And hence, one of the biggest wars in human history began.

Liv Boeree (39:30.380)

Stalin for sure thought that this was never going to be,

Lex Fridman (39:34.900)

that Hitler is not crazy enough to invade the Soviet Union.

Lex Fridman (39:38.660)

And it makes, geopolitically makes total sense

Lex Fridman (39:41.780)

to be collaborators.

Lex Fridman (39:43.020)

And ideologically, even though there's a tension

Lex Fridman (39:46.260)

between communism and fascism or national socialism,

Liv Boeree (39:50.300)

however you formulate it,

Lex Fridman (39:51.500)

it still feels like this is the right way

Liv Boeree (39:54.340)

to battle the West.

Lex Fridman (39:55.780)

Right.

Liv Boeree (39:56.620)

They were more ideologically aligned.

Lex Fridman (39:58.660)

They in theory had a common enemy, which is the West.

Liv Boeree (3:00:01.040)

it has to understand quantum mechanics.

Lex Fridman (3:00:02.680)

It has to understand general relativity.

Liv Boeree (3:00:03.520)

I love your optimism.

Lex Fridman (3:00:04.840)

This is where I'd say this,

Liv Boeree (3:00:06.240)

we're going into the realm of pathological optimism

Lex Fridman (3:00:08.400)

where if I, it's.

Liv Boeree (3:00:09.360)

I'm sure there'll be a,

Lex Fridman (3:00:12.800)

I think there's an intelligence

Liv Boeree (3:00:14.880)

that emerges from that system.

Lex Fridman (3:00:16.320)

So you're saying that basically intelligence

Liv Boeree (3:00:18.480)

is inherent in the fabric of reality and will find a way.

Lex Fridman (3:00:21.680)

Kind of like Goldblum says, life will find a way.

Liv Boeree (3:00:23.880)

You think life will find a way

Lex Fridman (3:00:25.240)

even out of this perfectly homogenous dead soup.

Liv Boeree (3:00:29.520)

It's not perfectly homogenous.

Lex Fridman (3:00:31.600)

It has to, it's perfectly maximal in the production.

Liv Boeree (3:00:34.960)

I don't know why people keep thinking it's homogenous.

Lex Fridman (3:00:37.400)

It maximizes the number of paperclips.

Liv Boeree (3:00:39.560)

That's the only thing.

Lex Fridman (3:00:40.400)

It's not trying to be homogenous.

Liv Boeree (3:00:42.040)

It's trying.

Lex Fridman (3:00:42.880)

It's trying to maximize paperclips.

Lex Fridman (3:00:44.760)

So you're saying, you're saying that because it,

Lex Fridman (3:00:47.840)

because, you know, kind of like in the Big Bang

Liv Boeree (3:00:50.160)

or, you know, it seems like, you know, things,

Lex Fridman (3:00:52.200)

there were clusters, there was more stuff here than there.

Liv Boeree (3:00:54.880)

That was enough of the patternicity

Lex Fridman (3:00:56.600)

that kickstarted the evolutionary process.

Liv Boeree (3:00:58.440)

It's the little weirdness that will make it beautiful.

Lex Fridman (3:01:01.280)

So yeah.

Liv Boeree (3:01:02.120)

Complexity emerges.

Lex Fridman (3:01:03.000)

Interesting, okay.

Liv Boeree (3:01:04.200)

Well, so how does that line up then

Lex Fridman (3:01:05.600)

with the whole heat death of the universe, right?

Liv Boeree (3:01:08.080)

Cause that's another sort of instantiation of this.

Lex Fridman (3:01:10.080)

It's like everything becomes so far apart and so cold

Lex Fridman (3:01:13.200)

and so perfectly mixed that it's like homogenous grayness.

Lex Fridman (3:01:20.360)

Do you think that even out of that homogenous grayness

Liv Boeree (3:01:23.280)

where there's no, you know, negative entropy,

Lex Fridman (3:01:26.880)

that, you know, there's no free energy that we understand

Lex Fridman (3:01:30.880)

even from that new stuff?

Lex Fridman (3:01:33.920)

Yeah, the paperclip maximizer

Liv Boeree (3:01:36.560)

or any other intelligence systems

Lex Fridman (3:01:38.120)

will figure out ways to travel to other universes

Liv Boeree (3:01:40.960)

to create Big Bangs within those universes

Lex Fridman (3:01:43.480)

or through black holes to create whole other worlds

Liv Boeree (3:01:46.120)

to break the, what we consider are the limitations

Lex Fridman (3:01:49.840)

of physics.

Liv Boeree (3:01:52.720)

The paperclip maximizer will find a way if a way exists.

Lex Fridman (3:01:56.640)

And we should be humbled to realize that we don't.

Liv Boeree (3:01:59.000)

Yeah, but because it just wants to make more paperclips.

Lex Fridman (3:02:01.440)

So it's gonna go into those universes

Lex Fridman (3:02:02.640)

and turn them into paperclips.

Lex Fridman (3:02:03.760)

Yeah, but we humans, not humans,

Lex Fridman (3:02:07.480)

but complex system exists on top of that.

Lex Fridman (3:02:10.320)

We're not interfering with it.

Liv Boeree (3:02:13.000)

This complexity emerges from the simple base state.

Lex Fridman (3:02:17.360)

The simple base.

Liv Boeree (3:02:18.280)

Whether it's, yeah, whether it's, you know,

Lex Fridman (3:02:20.280)

plank lengths or paperclips as the base unit.

Liv Boeree (3:02:22.640)

Yeah, you can think of like the universe

Lex Fridman (3:02:25.720)

as a paperclip maximizer because it's doing some dumb stuff.

Liv Boeree (3:02:28.920)

Like physics seems to be pretty dumb.

Lex Fridman (3:02:31.320)

It has, like, I don't know if you can summarize it.

Liv Boeree (3:02:34.120)

Yeah, the laws are fairly basic

Lex Fridman (3:02:37.360)

and yet out of them amazing complexity emerges.

Lex Fridman (3:02:39.640)

And its goals seem to be pretty basic and dumb.

Lex Fridman (3:02:43.440)

If you can summarize its goals,

Liv Boeree (3:02:45.280)

I mean, I don't know what's a nice way maybe,

Lex Fridman (3:02:49.480)

maybe laws of thermodynamics could be good.

Liv Boeree (3:02:52.400)

I don't know if you can assign goals to physics,

Lex Fridman (3:02:55.080)

but if you formulate in the sense of goals,

Liv Boeree (3:02:57.960)

it's very similar to paperclip maximizing

Lex Fridman (3:03:00.840)

in the dumbness of the goals.

Lex Fridman (3:03:02.960)

But the pockets of complexity as it emerge

Lex Fridman (3:03:06.520)

is where beauty emerges.

Liv Boeree (3:03:07.960)

That's where life emerges.

Lex Fridman (3:03:09.120)

That's where intelligence, that's where humans emerge.

Lex Fridman (3:03:12.120)

And I think we're being very down

Lex Fridman (3:03:14.000)

on this whole paperclip maximizer thing.

Liv Boeree (3:03:16.240)

Now, the reason we hated it.

Lex Fridman (3:03:17.680)

I think, yeah, because what you're saying

Liv Boeree (3:03:19.000)

is that you think that the force of emergence itself

Lex Fridman (3:03:24.160)

is another like unwritten, not unwritten,

Lex Fridman (3:03:27.480)

but like another baked in law of reality.

Lex Fridman (3:03:31.800)

And you're trusting that emergence will find a way to,

Liv Boeree (3:03:35.200)

even out of seemingly the most mollusky,

Lex Fridman (3:03:38.720)

awful, plain outcome, emergence will still find a way.

Liv Boeree (3:03:42.200)

I love that as a philosophy.

Lex Fridman (3:03:43.440)

I think it's very nice.

Liv Boeree (3:03:44.320)

I would wield it carefully

Lex Fridman (3:03:47.280)

because there's large error bars on that

Lex Fridman (3:03:50.440)

and the certainty of that.

Lex Fridman (3:03:53.000)

How about we build the paperclip maximizer and find out.

Liv Boeree (3:03:55.920)

Classic, yeah.

Lex Fridman (3:03:56.840)

Moloch is doing cartwheels, man.

Liv Boeree (3:03:59.120)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (3:03:59.960)

But the thing is it will destroy humans in the process,

Liv Boeree (3:04:02.440)

which is the reason we really don't like it.

Lex Fridman (3:04:05.320)

We seem to be really holding on

Liv Boeree (3:04:07.240)

to this whole human civilization thing.

Lex Fridman (3:04:10.240)

Would that make you sad if AI systems that are beautiful,

Liv Boeree (3:04:13.840)

that are conscious, that are interesting

Lex Fridman (3:04:15.680)

and complex and intelligent,

Lex Fridman (3:04:18.160)

ultimately lead to the death of humans?

Lex Fridman (3:04:20.040)

Would that make you sad?

Lex Fridman (3:04:21.080)

If humans led to the death of humans?

Lex Fridman (3:04:23.000)

Sorry.

Liv Boeree (3:04:23.840)

Like if they would supersede humans.

Lex Fridman (3:04:25.520)

Oh, if some AI?

Liv Boeree (3:04:26.840)

Yeah, AI would end humans.

Lex Fridman (3:04:30.320)

I mean, that's the reason why I'm like,

Liv Boeree (3:04:32.560)

in some ways less emotionally concerned about AI risk

Lex Fridman (3:04:36.440)

than say, bio risk.

Liv Boeree (3:04:39.480)

Because at least with AI, there's a chance,

Lex Fridman (3:04:42.200)

you know, if we're in this hypothetical

Liv Boeree (3:04:44.120)

where it wipes out humans,

Lex Fridman (3:04:45.640)

but it does it for some like higher purpose,

Liv Boeree (3:04:48.240)

it needs our atoms and energy to do something.

Lex Fridman (3:04:51.040)

At least now the universe is going on

Liv Boeree (3:04:53.120)

to do something interesting,

Lex Fridman (3:04:55.240)

whereas if it wipes everything, you know,

Liv Boeree (3:04:56.760)

bio like just kills everything on earth and that's it.

Lex Fridman (3:05:00.120)

And there's no more, you know,

Liv Boeree (3:05:01.440)

earth cannot spawn anything more meaningful

Lex Fridman (3:05:03.320)

in the few hundred million years it has left,

Liv Boeree (3:05:05.960)

because it doesn't have much time left.

Lex Fridman (3:05:09.040)

Then, yeah, I don't know.

Lex Fridman (3:05:13.480)

So one of my favorite books I've ever read is,

Lex Fridman (3:05:16.120)

Novocene by James Lovelock, who sadly just died.

Liv Boeree (3:05:19.920)

He wrote it when he was like 99.

Lex Fridman (3:05:22.080)

He died aged 102, so it's a fairly new book.

Lex Fridman (3:05:25.560)

And he sort of talks about that,

Lex Fridman (3:05:27.000)

that he thinks it's, you know,

Liv Boeree (3:05:29.240)

sort of building off this Gaia theory

Lex Fridman (3:05:30.800)

where like earth is like living,

Liv Boeree (3:05:34.320)

some form of intelligence itself,

Lex Fridman (3:05:36.080)

and that this is the next like step, right?

Liv Boeree (3:05:38.360)

Is this, whatever this new intelligence

Lex Fridman (3:05:41.720)

that is maybe silicon based

Liv Boeree (3:05:43.360)

as opposed to carbon based goes on to do.

Lex Fridman (3:05:46.120)

And it's a really sort of, in some ways an optimistic,

Lex Fridman (3:05:48.280)

but really fatalistic book.

Lex Fridman (3:05:49.800)

And I don't know if I fully subscribed to it,

Lex Fridman (3:05:52.400)

but it's a beautiful piece to read anyway.

Lex Fridman (3:05:54.400)

So am I sad by that idea?

Liv Boeree (3:05:56.760)

I think so, yes.

Lex Fridman (3:05:57.920)

And actually, yeah, this is the reason

Lex Fridman (3:05:59.240)

why I'm sad by the idea,

Lex Fridman (3:06:00.120)

because if something is truly brilliant

Lex Fridman (3:06:02.520)

and wise and smart and truly super intelligent,

Lex Fridman (3:06:06.440)

it should be able to figure out abundance.

Lex Fridman (3:06:09.320)

So if it figures out abundance,

Lex Fridman (3:06:11.720)

it shouldn't need to kill us off.

Liv Boeree (3:06:12.800)

It should be able to find a way for us.

Lex Fridman (3:06:14.360)

It should be, there's plenty, the universe is huge.

Liv Boeree (3:06:17.440)

There should be plenty of space for it to go out

Lex Fridman (3:06:19.920)

and do all the things it wants to do,

Lex Fridman (3:06:21.760)

and like give us a little pocket

Lex Fridman (3:06:23.440)

where we can continue doing our things

Lex Fridman (3:06:24.880)

and we can continue to do things and so on.

Lex Fridman (3:06:27.400)

And again, if it's so supremely wise,

Liv Boeree (3:06:28.920)

it shouldn't even be worried

Lex Fridman (3:06:29.760)

about the game theoretic considerations

Liv Boeree (3:06:31.920)

that by leaving us alive,

Lex Fridman (3:06:33.000)

we'll then go and create another like super intelligent agent

Liv Boeree (3:06:35.120)

that it then has to compete against,

Lex Fridman (3:06:36.600)

because it should be only wise and smart enough

Liv Boeree (3:06:38.280)

to not have to concern itself with that.

Lex Fridman (3:06:40.680)

Unless it deems humans to be kind of assholes.

Liv Boeree (3:06:44.680)

Like the humans are a source of non

Lex Fridman (3:06:48.680)

of a lose, lose kind of dynamics.

Liv Boeree (3:06:51.880)

Well, yes and no, we're not,

Lex Fridman (3:06:55.440)

Moloch is, that's why I think it's important to separate.

Lex Fridman (3:06:57.600)

But maybe humans are the source of Moloch.

Lex Fridman (3:07:00.200)

No, I think, I mean, I think game theory

Liv Boeree (3:07:02.600)

is the source of Moloch.

Lex Fridman (3:07:03.800)

And, you know, because Moloch exists

Liv Boeree (3:07:05.560)

in nonhuman systems as well.

Lex Fridman (3:07:08.000)

It happens within like agents within a game

Liv Boeree (3:07:10.560)

in terms of like, you know, it applies to agents,

Lex Fridman (3:07:13.920)

but like it can apply to, you know,

Liv Boeree (3:07:17.400)

a species that's on an island of animals,

Lex Fridman (3:07:20.640)

you know, rats out competing,

Liv Boeree (3:07:22.680)

the ones that like massively consume all the resources

Lex Fridman (3:07:25.520)

are the ones that are gonna win out

Liv Boeree (3:07:26.840)

over the more like chill, socialized ones.

Lex Fridman (3:07:29.680)

And so, you know, creates this Malthusian trap,

Liv Boeree (3:07:31.520)

like Moloch exists in little pockets in nature as well.

Lex Fridman (3:07:34.480)

So it's not a strictly human thing.

Liv Boeree (3:07:35.960)

I wonder if it's actually a result of consequences

Lex Fridman (3:07:38.320)

of the invention of predator and prey dynamics.

Liv Boeree (3:07:41.520)

Maybe it needs to, AI will have to kill off

Lex Fridman (3:07:45.240)

every organism that's.

Liv Boeree (3:07:47.840)

Now you're talking about killing off competition.

Lex Fridman (3:07:50.240)

Not competition, but just like the way,

Liv Boeree (3:07:55.880)

it's like the weeds or whatever

Lex Fridman (3:07:59.960)

in a beautiful flower garden.

Liv Boeree (3:08:01.640)

Parasites.

Lex Fridman (3:08:02.480)

The parasites, yeah, on the whole system.

Liv Boeree (3:08:05.200)

Now, of course, it won't do that completely.

Lex Fridman (3:08:08.440)

It'll put them in a zoo like we do with parasites.

Liv Boeree (3:08:10.520)

It'll ring fence.

Lex Fridman (3:08:11.360)

Yeah, and there'll be somebody doing a PhD

Liv Boeree (3:08:13.120)

on like they'll prod humans with a stick

Lex Fridman (3:08:15.800)

and see what they do.

Lex Fridman (3:08:18.880)

But I mean, in terms of letting us run wild

Lex Fridman (3:08:22.400)

outside of the, you know, a geographically

Liv Boeree (3:08:25.080)

constrained region that might be,

Lex Fridman (3:08:27.760)

that it might decide to against that.

Liv Boeree (3:08:31.200)

No, I think there's obviously the capacity

Lex Fridman (3:08:33.160)

for beauty and kindness and non Moloch behavior

Liv Boeree (3:08:38.160)

amidst humans, so I'm pretty sure AI will preserve us.

Lex Fridman (3:08:42.440)

Let me, I don't know if you answered the aliens question.

Liv Boeree (3:08:46.240)

No, I didn't.

Lex Fridman (3:08:47.080)

You had a good conversation with Toby Orr.

Liv Boeree (3:08:49.600)

Yes.

Lex Fridman (3:08:50.440)

About various sides of the universe.

Liv Boeree (3:08:52.200)

I think, did he say, now I'm forgetting,

Lex Fridman (3:08:54.680)

but I think he said it's a good chance we're alone.

Lex Fridman (3:08:58.160)

So the classic, you know, Fermi paradox question is,

Lex Fridman (3:09:02.200)

there are so many spawn points and yet, you know,

Liv Boeree (3:09:09.200)

it didn't take us that long to go from harnessing fire

Lex Fridman (3:09:12.080)

to sending out radio signals into space.

Lex Fridman (3:09:15.120)

So surely given the vastness of space we should be,

Lex Fridman (3:09:18.640)

and you know, even if only a tiny fraction of those

Liv Boeree (3:09:20.720)

create life and other civilizations too,

Lex Fridman (3:09:23.120)

we should be, the universe should be very noisy.

Liv Boeree (3:09:24.840)

There should be evidence of Dyson spheres or whatever,

Lex Fridman (3:09:27.800)

you know, like at least radio signals and so on,

Lex Fridman (3:09:29.680)

but seemingly things are very silent out there.

Lex Fridman (3:09:32.520)

Now, of course, it depends on who you speak to.

Liv Boeree (3:09:33.800)

Some people say that they're getting signals all the time

Lex Fridman (3:09:35.840)

and so on and like, I don't wanna make

Liv Boeree (3:09:37.480)

an epistemic statement on that,

Lex Fridman (3:09:38.640)

but it seems like there's a lot of silence.

Lex Fridman (3:09:43.120)

And so that raises this paradox.

Lex Fridman (3:09:45.680)

And then say, you know, the Drake equation.

Lex Fridman (3:09:51.040)

So the Drake equation is like basically just a simple thing

Lex Fridman (3:09:55.120)

of like trying to estimate the number of possible

Liv Boeree (3:09:57.720)

civilizations within the galaxy

Lex Fridman (3:09:58.960)

by multiplying the number of stars created per year

Liv Boeree (3:10:02.080)

by the number of stars that have planets,

Lex Fridman (3:10:03.560)

planets that are habitable, blah, blah, blah.

Lex Fridman (3:10:04.760)

So all these like different factors.

Lex Fridman (3:10:06.520)

And then you plug in numbers into that and you, you know,

Liv Boeree (3:10:09.240)

depending on like the range of, you know,

Lex Fridman (3:10:11.400)

your lower bound and your upper bound point estimates

Liv Boeree (3:10:14.680)

that you put in, you get out a number at the end

Lex Fridman (3:10:16.800)

for the number of civilizations.

Lex Fridman (3:10:18.520)

But what Toby and his crew did differently was,

Lex Fridman (3:10:22.840)

Toby is a researcher at the Future of Humanity Institute.

Liv Boeree (3:10:25.640)

They, instead of, they realized that it's like basically

Lex Fridman (3:10:31.160)

a statistical quirk that if you put in point sources,

Liv Boeree (3:10:33.800)

even if you think you're putting in

Lex Fridman (3:10:34.840)

conservative point sources,

Liv Boeree (3:10:36.000)

because on some of these variables,

Lex Fridman (3:10:37.960)

the uncertainty is so large,

Liv Boeree (3:10:41.080)

it spans like maybe even like a couple of hundred

Lex Fridman (3:10:43.800)

orders of magnitude.

Liv Boeree (3:10:46.400)

By putting in point sources,

Lex Fridman (3:10:47.440)

it's always going to lead to overestimates.

Lex Fridman (3:10:50.880)

And so they, like by putting stuff on a log scale,

Lex Fridman (3:10:54.320)

or actually they did it on like a log log scale

Liv Boeree (3:10:56.080)

on some of them,

Lex Fridman (3:10:57.400)

and then like ran the simulation across the whole

Liv Boeree (3:11:01.080)

bucket of uncertainty,

Lex Fridman (3:11:02.600)

across all of those orders of magnitude.

Liv Boeree (3:11:04.320)

When you do that,

Lex Fridman (3:11:05.840)

then actually the number comes out much, much smaller.

Lex Fridman (3:11:08.240)

And that's the more statistically rigorous,

Lex Fridman (3:11:10.440)

you know, mathematically correct way

Liv Boeree (3:11:11.920)

of doing the calculation.

Lex Fridman (3:11:13.360)

It's still a lot of hand waving.

Liv Boeree (3:11:14.680)

As science goes, it's like definitely, you know,

Lex Fridman (3:11:17.640)

just waving, I don't know what an analogy is,

Lex Fridman (3:11:19.840)

but it's hand wavy.

Lex Fridman (3:11:22.040)

And anyway, when they did this,

Lex Fridman (3:11:24.720)

and then they did a Bayesian update on it as well,

Lex Fridman (3:11:27.000)

to like factor in the fact that there is no evidence

Liv Boeree (3:11:30.120)

that we're picking up because, you know,

Lex Fridman (3:11:31.320)

no evidence is actually a form of evidence, right?

Lex Fridman (3:11:33.920)

And the long and short of it comes out that the,

Lex Fridman (3:11:37.680)

we're roughly around 70% to be the only

Liv Boeree (3:11:42.480)

intelligent civilization in our galaxy thus far,

Lex Fridman (3:11:45.080)

and around 50, 50 in the entire observable universe,

Liv Boeree (3:11:47.840)

which sounds so crazily counterintuitive,

Lex Fridman (3:11:50.200)

but their math is legit.

Liv Boeree (3:11:53.360)

Well, yeah, the math around this particular equation,

Lex Fridman (3:11:55.600)

which the equation is ridiculous on many levels,

Lex Fridman (3:11:57.760)

but the powerful thing about the equation

Lex Fridman (3:12:03.160)

is there's the different things,

Liv Boeree (3:12:05.200)

different components that can be estimated,

Lex Fridman (3:12:09.400)

and the error bars on which can be reduced with science.

Lex Fridman (3:12:13.800)

And hence throughout, since the equation came out,

Lex Fridman (3:12:17.320)

the error bars have been coming out on different,

Liv Boeree (3:12:19.560)

different aspects.

Lex Fridman (3:12:20.920)

And so that, it almost kind of says,

Liv Boeree (3:12:23.600)

what, like this gives you a mission to reduce the error bars

Lex Fridman (3:12:27.000)

on these estimates over a period of time.

Lex Fridman (3:12:30.000)

And once you do, you can better and better understand,

Lex Fridman (3:12:32.760)

like in the process of redoing the error bars,

Liv Boeree (3:12:34.720)

you'll get to understand actually

Lex Fridman (3:12:36.960)

what is the right way to find out where the aliens are,

Lex Fridman (3:12:41.480)

how many of them there are, and all those kinds of things.

Lex Fridman (3:12:43.960)

So I don't think it's good to use that for an estimation.

Liv Boeree (3:12:47.800)

I think you do have to think from like,

Lex Fridman (3:12:50.120)

more like from first principles,

Liv Boeree (3:12:51.840)

just looking at what life is on Earth,

Lex Fridman (3:12:55.320)

and trying to understand the very physics based,

Liv Boeree (3:12:59.320)

biology, chemistry, biology based question of what is life,

Lex Fridman (3:13:04.240)

maybe computation based.

Lex Fridman (3:13:05.960)

What the fuck is this thing?

Lex Fridman (3:13:07.920)

And that, like how difficult is it to create this thing?

Liv Boeree (3:13:12.160)

It's one way to say like how many planets like this

Lex Fridman (3:13:14.520)

are out there, all that kind of stuff,

Lex Fridman (3:13:16.160)

but it feels like from our very limited knowledge

Lex Fridman (3:13:20.560)

perspective, the right way is to think how does,

Lex Fridman (3:13:25.680)

what is this thing and how does it originate?

Lex Fridman (3:13:28.200)

From very simple nonlife things,

Lex Fridman (3:13:32.000)

how does complex lifelike things emerge?

Lex Fridman (3:13:37.120)

From a rock to a bacteria, protein,

Lex Fridman (3:13:42.120)

and these like weird systems that encode information

Lex Fridman (3:13:46.400)

and pass information from self replicate,

Lex Fridman (3:13:49.520)

and then also select each other and mutate

Lex Fridman (3:13:51.560)

in interesting ways such that they can adapt

Lex Fridman (3:13:53.440)

and evolve and build increasingly more complex systems.

Lex Fridman (3:13:56.560)

Right, well it's a form of information processing, right?

Liv Boeree (3:13:59.720)

Right.

Lex Fridman (3:14:00.560)

Whereas information transfer, but then also

Liv Boeree (3:14:04.000)

an energy processing, which then results in,

Lex Fridman (3:14:07.440)

I guess information processing,

Liv Boeree (3:14:09.080)

maybe I'm getting bogged down.

Lex Fridman (3:14:09.920)

It's doing some modification and yeah,

Liv Boeree (3:14:12.560)

the input is some energy.

Lex Fridman (3:14:14.440)

Right, it's able to extract, yeah,

Liv Boeree (3:14:17.600)

extract resources from its environment

Lex Fridman (3:14:20.640)

in order to achieve a goal.

Lex Fridman (3:14:22.680)

But the goal doesn't seem to be clear.

Lex Fridman (3:14:24.920)

Right, well the goal is to make more of itself.

Liv Boeree (3:14:29.440)

Yeah, but in a way that increases,

Lex Fridman (3:14:33.760)

I mean I don't know if evolution

Liv Boeree (3:14:36.320)

is a fundamental law of the universe,

Lex Fridman (3:14:39.840)

but it seems to want to replicate itself

Liv Boeree (3:14:44.200)

in a way that maximizes the chance of its survival.

Lex Fridman (3:14:47.640)

Individual agents within an ecosystem do, yes, yes.

Liv Boeree (3:14:51.320)

Evolution itself doesn't give a fuck.

Lex Fridman (3:14:53.280)

Right.

Liv Boeree (3:14:54.120)

It's a very, it don't care.

Lex Fridman (3:14:55.200)

It's just like, oh, you optimize it.

Liv Boeree (3:14:58.480)

Well, at least it's certainly, yeah,

Lex Fridman (3:15:01.520)

it doesn't care about the welfare

Liv Boeree (3:15:03.440)

of the individual agents within it,

Lex Fridman (3:15:05.040)

but it does seem to, I don't know.

Liv Boeree (3:15:06.440)

I think the mistake is that we're anthropomorphizing.

Lex Fridman (3:15:09.680)

To even try and give evolution a mindset

Liv Boeree (3:15:14.760)

because it is, there's a really great post

Lex Fridman (3:15:17.200)

by Eliezer Yudkowsky on Lesrong,

Liv Boeree (3:15:21.440)

which is an alien God.

Lex Fridman (3:15:25.360)

And he talks about the mistake we make

Liv Boeree (3:15:27.560)

when we try and put our mind,

Lex Fridman (3:15:30.080)

think through things from an evolutionary perspective

Liv Boeree (3:15:32.280)

as though giving evolution some kind of agency

Lex Fridman (3:15:35.160)

and what it wants.

Liv Boeree (3:15:37.320)

Yeah, worth reading, but yeah.

Lex Fridman (3:15:39.520)

I would like to say that having interacted

Liv Boeree (3:15:42.600)

with a lot of really smart people

Lex Fridman (3:15:43.960)

that say that anthropomorphization is a mistake,

Liv Boeree (3:15:46.920)

I would like to say that saying

Lex Fridman (3:15:48.720)

that anthropomorphization is a mistake is a mistake.

Liv Boeree (3:15:51.600)

I think there's a lot of power in anthropomorphization,

Lex Fridman (3:15:54.960)

if I can only say that word correctly one time.

Liv Boeree (3:15:57.720)

I think that's actually a really powerful way

Lex Fridman (3:16:00.760)

to reason to things.

Lex Fridman (3:16:01.800)

And I think people, especially people in robotics

Lex Fridman (3:16:04.320)

seem to run away from it as fast as possible.

Lex Fridman (3:16:07.120)

And I just, I think.

Lex Fridman (3:16:09.280)

Can you give an example of like how it helps in robotics?

Liv Boeree (3:16:13.160)

Oh, in that our world is a world of humans

Lex Fridman (3:16:19.040)

and to see robots as fundamentally just tools

Liv Boeree (3:16:24.200)

runs away from the fact that we live in a world,

Lex Fridman (3:16:27.960)

a dynamic world of humans.

Liv Boeree (3:16:30.000)

That like these, all these game theory systems

Lex Fridman (3:16:32.080)

we've talked about, that a robot

Liv Boeree (3:16:35.440)

that ever has to interact with humans.

Lex Fridman (3:16:37.560)

And I don't mean like intimate friendship interaction.

Liv Boeree (3:16:40.800)

I mean, in a factory setting where it has to deal

Lex Fridman (3:16:43.320)

with the uncertainty of humans, all that kind of stuff.

Liv Boeree (3:16:45.520)

You have to acknowledge that the robot's behavior

Lex Fridman (3:16:49.840)

has an effect on the human, just as much as the human

Liv Boeree (3:16:53.360)

has an effect on the robot.

Lex Fridman (3:16:54.600)

And there's a dance there.

Lex Fridman (3:16:56.120)

And you have to realize that this entity,

Lex Fridman (3:16:58.400)

when a human sees a robot, this is obvious

Liv Boeree (3:17:01.680)

in a physical manifestation of a robot,

Lex Fridman (3:17:04.240)

they feel a certain way.

Liv Boeree (3:17:05.800)

They have a fear, they have uncertainty.

Lex Fridman (3:17:07.920)

They have their own personal life projections.

Liv Boeree (3:17:11.880)

We have to have pets and dogs

Lex Fridman (3:17:13.240)

and the thing looks like a dog.

Liv Boeree (3:17:14.840)

They have their own memories of what a dog is like.

Lex Fridman (3:17:17.120)

They have certain feelings and that's gonna be useful

Liv Boeree (3:17:19.760)

in a safety setting, safety critical setting,

Lex Fridman (3:17:22.240)

which is one of the most trivial settings for a robot

Liv Boeree (3:17:25.280)

in terms of how to avoid any kind of dangerous situations.

Lex Fridman (3:17:29.240)

And a robot should really consider that

Liv Boeree (3:17:32.520)

in navigating its environment.

Lex Fridman (3:17:34.880)

And we humans are right to reason about how a robot

Liv Boeree (3:17:38.760)

should consider navigating its environment

Lex Fridman (3:17:41.480)

through anthropomorphization.

Liv Boeree (3:17:42.840)

I also think our brains are designed to think

Lex Fridman (3:17:46.520)

in human terms, like game theory,

Liv Boeree (3:17:55.320)

I think is best applied in the space of human decisions.

Lex Fridman (3:18:01.680)

And so...

Liv Boeree (3:18:03.440)

Right, you're dealing, I mean, with things like AI,

Lex Fridman (3:18:06.160)

AI is, they are, we can somewhat,

Liv Boeree (3:18:10.520)

like, I don't think it's,

Lex Fridman (3:18:11.960)

the reason I say anthropomorphization

Liv Boeree (3:18:14.160)

we need to be careful with is because there is a danger

Lex Fridman (3:18:17.000)

of overly applying, overly wrongly assuming

Liv Boeree (3:18:20.840)

that this artificial intelligence is going to operate

Lex Fridman (3:18:24.200)

in any similar way to us,

Liv Boeree (3:18:25.880)

because it is operating

Lex Fridman (3:18:27.760)

on a fundamentally different substrate.

Liv Boeree (3:18:29.680)

Like even dogs or even mice or whatever, in some ways,

Lex Fridman (3:18:33.880)

like anthropomorphizing them is less of a mistake, I think,

Liv Boeree (3:18:37.520)

than an AI, even though it's an AI we built and so on,

Lex Fridman (3:18:40.200)

because at least we know

Liv Boeree (3:18:41.440)

that they're running from the same substrate.

Lex Fridman (3:18:43.360)

And they've also evolved from the same,

Liv Boeree (3:18:45.560)

out of the same evolutionary process.

Lex Fridman (3:18:48.680)

They've followed this evolution

Liv Boeree (3:18:50.000)

of like needing to compete for resources

Lex Fridman (3:18:52.400)

and needing to find a mate and that kind of stuff.

Liv Boeree (3:18:55.200)

Whereas an AI that has just popped into existence

Lex Fridman (3:18:58.280)

somewhere on like a cloud server,

Liv Boeree (3:19:00.480)

let's say, you know, or whatever, however it runs

Lex Fridman (3:19:02.840)

and whatever, whether it,

Liv Boeree (3:19:03.920)

I don't know whether they have an internal experience.

Lex Fridman (3:19:05.560)

I don't think they necessarily do.

Liv Boeree (3:19:07.040)

In fact, I don't think they do.

Lex Fridman (3:19:08.120)

But the point is, is that to try and apply

Liv Boeree (3:19:11.920)

any kind of modeling of like thinking through problems

Lex Fridman (3:19:14.880)

and decisions in the same way that we do

Liv Boeree (3:19:16.920)

has to be done extremely carefully because they are,

Lex Fridman (3:19:20.720)

like, they're so alien,

Liv Boeree (3:19:23.560)

their method of whatever their form of thinking is,

Lex Fridman (3:19:26.320)

it's just so different because they've never had to evolve,

Liv Boeree (3:19:29.160)

you know, in the same way.

Lex Fridman (3:19:30.640)

Yeah, beautifully put.

Liv Boeree (3:19:32.280)

I was just playing devil's advocate.

Lex Fridman (3:19:33.760)

I do think in certain contexts,

Liv Boeree (3:19:35.680)

anthropomorphization is not gonna hurt you.

Lex Fridman (3:19:37.920)

Yes.

Liv Boeree (3:19:38.760)

Engineers run away from it too fast.

Lex Fridman (3:19:39.960)

I can see that.

Lex Fridman (3:19:41.040)

But from the most point, you're right.

Lex Fridman (3:19:43.680)

Do you have advice for young people today,

Liv Boeree (3:19:48.680)

like the 17 year old that you were,

Lex Fridman (3:19:51.360)

of how to live life?

Liv Boeree (3:19:53.600)

You can be proud of how to have a career

Lex Fridman (3:19:56.440)

you can be proud of in this world full of mullocks.

Liv Boeree (3:20:00.880)

Think about the win wins.

Lex Fridman (3:20:02.440)

Look for win win situations.

Lex Fridman (3:20:05.520)

And be careful not to, you know, overly use your smarts

Lex Fridman (3:20:11.320)

to convince yourself that something is win win

Liv Boeree (3:20:13.000)

when it's not.

Lex Fridman (3:20:13.840)

So that's difficult.

Lex Fridman (3:20:14.680)

And I don't know how to advise, you know, people on that

Lex Fridman (3:20:17.600)

because it's something I'm still figuring out myself.

Lex Fridman (3:20:20.160)

But have that as a sort of default MO.

Lex Fridman (3:20:25.760)

Don't see things, everything as a zero sum game.

Liv Boeree (3:20:28.080)

Try to find the positive sumness and like find ways

Lex Fridman (3:20:30.680)

if there doesn't seem to be one,

Liv Boeree (3:20:32.680)

consider playing a different game.

Lex Fridman (3:20:34.200)

So that I would suggest that.

Liv Boeree (3:20:37.000)

Do not become a professional poker player.

Lex Fridman (3:20:38.760)

I, cause people always ask that like, oh, she's a pro.

Liv Boeree (3:20:41.800)

I wanna do that too.

Lex Fridman (3:20:43.240)

Fine, you could have done it if you were, you know,

Liv Boeree (3:20:45.280)

when I started out,

Lex Fridman (3:20:46.240)

it was a very different situation back then.

Liv Boeree (3:20:48.280)

Poker is, you know, a great game to learn

Lex Fridman (3:20:52.600)

in order to understand the ways to think.

Lex Fridman (3:20:54.960)

And I recommend people learn it,

Lex Fridman (3:20:56.800)

but don't try and make a living from it these days.

Liv Boeree (3:20:58.400)

It's almost, it's very, very difficult

Lex Fridman (3:21:00.280)

to the point of being impossible.

Lex Fridman (3:21:03.640)

And then really, really be aware of how much time

Lex Fridman (3:21:08.800)

you spend on your phone and on social media

Lex Fridman (3:21:12.120)

and really try and keep it to a minimum.

Lex Fridman (3:21:14.280)

Be aware that basically every moment that you spend on it

Liv Boeree (3:21:17.040)

is bad for you.

Lex Fridman (3:21:18.120)

So it doesn't mean to say you can never do it,

Lex Fridman (3:21:20.160)

but just have that running in the background.

Lex Fridman (3:21:22.520)

I'm doing a bad thing for myself right now.

Liv Boeree (3:21:25.280)

I think that's the general rule of thumb.

Lex Fridman (3:21:28.680)

Of course, about becoming a professional poker player,

Liv Boeree (3:21:31.160)

if there is a thing in your life that's like that

Lex Fridman (3:21:35.400)

and nobody can convince you otherwise, just fucking do it.

Liv Boeree (3:21:40.960)

Don't listen to anyone's advice.

Lex Fridman (3:21:44.080)

Find a thing that you can't be talked out of too.

Liv Boeree (3:21:46.360)

That's a thing.

Lex Fridman (3:21:47.360)

I like that, yeah.

Lex Fridman (3:21:50.160)

You were a lead guitarist in a metal band?

Lex Fridman (3:21:53.880)

Oh.

Lex Fridman (3:21:54.720)

Did I write that down from something?

Lex Fridman (3:21:56.960)

What did you, what'd you do it for?

Lex Fridman (3:22:00.080)

The performing, was it the pure, the music of it?

Lex Fridman (3:22:07.080)

Was it just being a rock star?

Lex Fridman (3:22:08.960)

Why'd you do it?

Lex Fridman (3:22:11.440)

So we only ever played two gigs.

Liv Boeree (3:22:15.400)

We didn't last, you know, it wasn't a very,

Lex Fridman (3:22:17.880)

we weren't famous or anything like that.

Lex Fridman (3:22:20.560)

But I was very into metal.

Lex Fridman (3:22:25.280)

Like it was my entire identity,

Liv Boeree (3:22:27.440)

sort of from the age of 16 to 23.

Lex Fridman (3:22:29.320)

What's the best metal band of all time?

Liv Boeree (3:22:31.640)

Don't ask me that, it's so hard to answer.

Lex Fridman (3:22:36.760)

So I know I had a long argument with,

Liv Boeree (3:22:40.800)

I'm a guitarist, more like a classic rock guitarist.

Lex Fridman (3:22:43.960)

So, you know, I've had friends who are very big

Liv Boeree (3:22:46.600)

Pantera fans and so there was often arguments

Lex Fridman (3:22:49.800)

about what's the better metal band,

Liv Boeree (3:22:52.480)

Metallica versus Pantera.

Lex Fridman (3:22:53.880)

This is a more kind of 90s maybe discussion.

Lex Fridman (3:22:57.360)

But I was always on the side of Metallica,

Lex Fridman (3:23:00.360)

both musically and in terms of performance

Lex Fridman (3:23:02.760)

and the depth of lyrics and so on.

Lex Fridman (3:23:06.120)

So, but they were, basically everybody was against me.

Liv Boeree (3:23:10.280)

Because if you're a true metal fan,

Lex Fridman (3:23:12.280)

I guess the idea goes is you can't possibly

Liv Boeree (3:23:14.520)

be a Metallica fan.

Lex Fridman (3:23:16.160)

Because Metallica is pop, it's just like, they sold out.

Liv Boeree (3:23:19.560)

Metallica are metal.

Lex Fridman (3:23:20.600)

Like they were the, I mean, again, you can't say

Liv Boeree (3:23:24.920)

who was the godfather of metal, blah, blah, blah.

Lex Fridman (3:23:26.520)

But like they were so groundbreaking and so brilliant.

Liv Boeree (3:23:32.680)

I mean, you've named literally two of my favorite bands.

Lex Fridman (3:23:34.920)

Like when you asked that question, who are my favorites?

Liv Boeree (3:23:37.240)

Like those were two that came up.

Lex Fridman (3:23:39.000)

A third one is Children of Bodom,

Liv Boeree (3:23:41.480)

who I just think, oh, they just tick all the boxes for me.

Lex Fridman (3:23:47.240)

Yeah, I don't know.

Liv Boeree (3:23:48.160)

It's nowadays, like I kind of sort of feel

Lex Fridman (3:23:51.800)

like a repulsion to the, I was that myself.

Lex Fridman (3:23:55.680)

Like I'd be like, who do you prefer more?

Lex Fridman (3:23:56.880)

Come on, who's like, no, you have to rank them.

Lex Fridman (3:23:58.880)

But it's like this false zero sumness that's like, why?

Lex Fridman (3:24:01.720)

They're so additive.

Liv Boeree (3:24:02.600)

Like there's no conflict there.

Lex Fridman (3:24:04.560)

Although when people ask that kind of question

Liv Boeree (3:24:06.960)

about anything, movies, I feel like it's hard work.

Lex Fridman (3:24:11.440)

And it's unfair, but it's, you should pick one.

Liv Boeree (3:24:14.880)

Like, and that's actually the same kind of,

Lex Fridman (3:24:17.760)

it's like a fear of a commitment.

Lex Fridman (3:24:19.480)

When people ask me, what's your favorite band?

Lex Fridman (3:24:21.040)

It's like, but I, it's good to pick.

Liv Boeree (3:24:24.280)

Exactly.

Lex Fridman (3:24:25.120)

And thank you for the tough question, yeah.

Liv Boeree (3:24:27.640)

Well, maybe not in the context

Lex Fridman (3:24:29.480)

when a lot of people are listening.

Lex Fridman (3:24:31.800)

Yeah, I'm not just like, what, why does it matter?

Lex Fridman (3:24:33.960)

No, it does.

Lex Fridman (3:24:35.560)

Are you still into metal?

Lex Fridman (3:24:37.400)

Funny enough, I was listening to a bunch

Liv Boeree (3:24:38.520)

before I came over here.

Lex Fridman (3:24:39.840)

Oh, like, do you use it for like motivation

Lex Fridman (3:24:43.680)

or it gets you in a certain?

Lex Fridman (3:24:44.640)

Yeah, I was weirdly listening

Liv Boeree (3:24:45.680)

to 80s hair metal before I came.

Lex Fridman (3:24:48.120)

Does that count as metal?

Liv Boeree (3:24:49.840)

I think so, it's like proto metal and it's happy.

Lex Fridman (3:24:53.440)

It's optimistic, happy proto metal.

Liv Boeree (3:24:56.760)

Yeah, I mean, all these genres bleed into each other.

Lex Fridman (3:25:00.040)

But yeah, sorry, to answer your question

Liv Boeree (3:25:01.240)

about guitar playing, my relationship with it

Lex Fridman (3:25:04.280)

was kind of weird in that I was deeply uncreative.

Liv Boeree (3:25:09.120)

My objective would be to hear some really hard

Lex Fridman (3:25:11.240)

technical solo and then learn it, memorize it

Lex Fridman (3:25:14.320)

and then play it perfectly.

Lex Fridman (3:25:15.960)

But I was incapable of trying to write my own music.

Liv Boeree (3:25:19.200)

Like the idea was just absolutely terrifying.

Lex Fridman (3:25:23.120)

But I was also just thinking, I was like,

Liv Boeree (3:25:24.640)

it'd be kind of cool to actually try starting a band again

Lex Fridman (3:25:28.600)

and getting back into it and write.

Lex Fridman (3:25:31.520)

But it's scary.

Lex Fridman (3:25:34.000)

It's scary.

Liv Boeree (3:25:34.840)

I mean, I put out some guitar playing

Lex Fridman (3:25:36.840)

just other people's covers.

Liv Boeree (3:25:38.120)

I play Comfortly Numb on the internet.

Lex Fridman (3:25:41.440)

And it's scary too.

Liv Boeree (3:25:42.480)

It's scary putting stuff out there.

Lex Fridman (3:25:45.320)

And I had this similar kind of fascination

Liv Boeree (3:25:47.680)

with technical playing, both on piano and guitar.

Lex Fridman (3:25:50.280)

You know, one of the first,

Liv Boeree (3:25:55.680)

one of the reasons that I started learning guitar

Lex Fridman (3:25:58.120)

is from Ozzy Osbourne, Mr. Crowley's solo.

Lex Fridman (3:26:01.760)

And one of the first solos I learned is that,

Lex Fridman (3:26:06.760)

there's a beauty to it.

Liv Boeree (3:26:07.600)

There's a lot of beauty to it.

Lex Fridman (3:26:08.440)

It's tapping, right?

Liv Boeree (3:26:09.280)

Yeah, there's some tapping, but it's just really fast.

Lex Fridman (3:26:14.480)

Beautiful, like arpeggios.

Liv Boeree (3:26:15.720)

Yeah, arpeggios, yeah.

Lex Fridman (3:26:16.960)

But there's a melody that you can hear through it,

Lex Fridman (3:26:19.600)

but there's also build up.

Lex Fridman (3:26:21.600)

It's a beautiful solo,

Lex Fridman (3:26:22.800)

but it's also technically just visually the way it looks

Lex Fridman (3:26:25.920)

when a person's watching, you feel like a rockstar playing.

Lex Fridman (3:26:29.640)

But it ultimately has to do with technical.

Lex Fridman (3:26:33.560)

You're not developing the part of your brain

Liv Boeree (3:26:36.440)

that I think requires you to generate beautiful music.

Lex Fridman (3:26:40.640)

It is ultimately technical in nature.

Lex Fridman (3:26:42.360)

And so that took me a long time to let go of that

Lex Fridman (3:26:45.840)

and just be able to write music myself.

Lex Fridman (3:26:48.960)

And that's a different journey, I think.

Lex Fridman (3:26:53.120)

I think that journey is a little bit more inspired

Liv Boeree (3:26:55.080)

in the blues world, for example,

Lex Fridman (3:26:57.080)

where improvisation is more valued,

Liv Boeree (3:26:58.640)

obviously in jazz and so on.

Lex Fridman (3:26:59.960)

But I think ultimately it's a more rewarding journey

Liv Boeree (3:27:04.960)

because you get your relationship with the guitar

Lex Fridman (3:27:08.360)

then becomes a kind of escape from the world

Liv Boeree (3:27:12.120)

where you can create, I mean, creating stuff is.

Lex Fridman (3:27:17.120)

And it's something you work with,

Liv Boeree (3:27:18.720)

because my relationship with my guitar was like,

Lex Fridman (3:27:20.240)

it was something to tame and defeat.

Liv Boeree (3:27:23.360)

Yeah, it's a challenge.

Lex Fridman (3:27:24.760)

Which was kind of what my whole personality was back then.

Liv Boeree (3:27:26.960)

I was just very like, as I said, very competitive,

Lex Fridman (3:27:29.520)

very just like must bend this thing to my will.

Liv Boeree (3:27:33.120)

Whereas writing music, it's like a dance, you work with it.

Lex Fridman (3:27:37.840)

But I think because of the competitive aspect,

Liv Boeree (3:27:39.880)

for me at least, that's still there,

Lex Fridman (3:27:42.440)

which creates anxiety about playing publicly

Liv Boeree (3:27:45.720)

or all that kind of stuff.

Lex Fridman (3:27:47.080)

I think there's just like a harsh self criticism

Liv Boeree (3:27:49.280)

within the whole thing.

Lex Fridman (3:27:50.680)

It's really tough.

Liv Boeree (3:27:53.320)

I wanna hear some of your stuff.

Lex Fridman (3:27:55.320)

I mean, there's certain things that feel really personal.

Lex Fridman (3:27:59.240)

And on top of that, as we talked about poker offline,

Lex Fridman (3:28:03.360)

there's certain things that you get to a certain height

Liv Boeree (3:28:05.560)

in your life, and that doesn't have to be very high,

Lex Fridman (3:28:07.160)

but you get to a certain height

Lex Fridman (3:28:09.080)

and then you put it aside for a bit.

Lex Fridman (3:28:11.760)

And it's hard to return to it

Liv Boeree (3:28:13.160)

because you remember being good.

Lex Fridman (3:28:15.960)

And it's hard to, like you being at a very high level

Liv Boeree (3:28:19.880)

in poker, it might be hard for you to return to poker

Lex Fridman (3:28:22.560)

every once in a while and enjoy it,

Liv Boeree (3:28:24.600)

knowing that you're just not as sharp as you used to be

Lex Fridman (3:28:26.920)

because you're not doing it every single day.

Liv Boeree (3:28:29.680)

That's something I always wonder with,

Lex Fridman (3:28:31.320)

I mean, even just like in chess with Kasparov,

Liv Boeree (3:28:33.760)

some of these greats, just returning to it,

Lex Fridman (3:28:36.200)

it's almost painful.

Lex Fridman (3:28:38.400)

And I feel that way with guitar too,

Lex Fridman (3:28:40.680)

because I used to play every day a lot.

Lex Fridman (3:28:44.160)

So returning to it is painful

Lex Fridman (3:28:46.080)

because it's like accepting the fact

Liv Boeree (3:28:48.720)

that this whole ride is finite

Lex Fridman (3:28:51.480)

and that you have a prime,

Liv Boeree (3:28:55.760)

there's a time when you were really good

Lex Fridman (3:28:57.400)

and now it's over and now.

Liv Boeree (3:28:58.800)

We're on a different chapter of life.

Lex Fridman (3:29:00.360)

I was like, oh, but I miss that.

Lex Fridman (3:29:02.960)

But you can still discover joy within that process.

Lex Fridman (3:29:06.560)

It's been tough, especially with some level of like,

Liv Boeree (3:29:10.080)

as people get to know you, and people film stuff,

Lex Fridman (3:29:13.680)

you don't have the privacy of just sharing something

Liv Boeree (3:29:18.960)

with a few people around you.

Lex Fridman (3:29:20.600)

Yeah.

Liv Boeree (3:29:21.600)

That's a beautiful privacy.

Lex Fridman (3:29:23.080)

That's a good point.

Liv Boeree (3:29:23.920)

With the internet, it's just disappearing.

Lex Fridman (3:29:26.040)

Yeah, that's a really good point.

Liv Boeree (3:29:27.760)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (3:29:29.160)

But all those pressures aside,

Liv Boeree (3:29:31.120)

if you really, you can step up

Lex Fridman (3:29:32.920)

and still enjoy the fuck out of a good musical performance.

Lex Fridman (3:29:39.120)

What do you think is the meaning of this whole thing?

Lex Fridman (3:29:42.360)

What's the meaning of life?

Liv Boeree (3:29:43.600)

Oh, wow.

Lex Fridman (3:29:45.600)

It's in your name, as we talked about.

Liv Boeree (3:29:47.320)

You have to live up.

Lex Fridman (3:29:48.600)

Do you feel the requirement

Lex Fridman (3:29:50.960)

to have to live up to your name?

Lex Fridman (3:29:54.200)

Because live?

Liv Boeree (3:29:55.200)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (3:29:56.040)

No, because I don't see it.

Liv Boeree (3:29:57.760)

I mean, my, oh, again, it's kind of like,

Lex Fridman (3:30:02.440)

no, I don't know.

Liv Boeree (3:30:03.280)

Because my full name is Olivia.

Lex Fridman (3:30:05.320)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (3:30:06.160)

So I can retreat in that and be like,

Lex Fridman (3:30:07.200)

oh, Olivia, what does that even mean?

Liv Boeree (3:30:10.000)

Live up to live.

Lex Fridman (3:30:12.320)

No, I can't say I do,

Liv Boeree (3:30:13.880)

because I've never thought of it that way.

Lex Fridman (3:30:15.400)

And then your name backwards is evil.

Liv Boeree (3:30:17.280)

That's what we also talked about.

Lex Fridman (3:30:18.880)

I mean, I feel the urge to live up to that,

Liv Boeree (3:30:21.880)

to be the inverse of evil or even better.

Lex Fridman (3:30:25.880)

Because I don't think, you know,

Liv Boeree (3:30:27.480)

is the inverse of evil good

Lex Fridman (3:30:29.000)

or is good something completely separate to that?

Liv Boeree (3:30:32.000)

I think my intuition says it's the latter,

Lex Fridman (3:30:34.040)

but I don't know.

Liv Boeree (3:30:34.880)

Anyway, again, getting in the weeds.

Lex Fridman (3:30:36.880)

What is the meaning of all this?

Liv Boeree (3:30:39.280)

Of life.

Lex Fridman (3:30:41.240)

Why are we here?

Liv Boeree (3:30:43.880)

I think to,

Lex Fridman (3:30:44.720)

explore, have fun and understand

Lex Fridman (3:30:48.080)

and make more of here and to keep the game going.

Lex Fridman (3:30:51.080)

Of here?

Lex Fridman (3:30:51.920)

More of here?

Lex Fridman (3:30:52.760)

More of this, whatever this is.

Liv Boeree (3:30:55.280)

More of experience.

Lex Fridman (3:30:57.240)

Just to have more of experience

Lex Fridman (3:30:58.240)

and ideally positive experience.

Lex Fridman (3:31:01.240)

And more complex, you know,

Liv Boeree (3:31:05.240)

I guess, try and put it into a sort of

Lex Fridman (3:31:06.840)

vaguely scientific term.

Liv Boeree (3:31:10.240)

I don't know.

Lex Fridman (3:31:11.080)

I don't know.

Liv Boeree (3:31:11.920)

I don't know.

Lex Fridman (3:31:12.760)

But make it so that the program required,

Liv Boeree (3:31:18.360)

the length of code required to describe the universe

Lex Fridman (3:31:21.480)

is as long as possible.

Liv Boeree (3:31:23.560)

And, you know, highly complex and therefore interesting.

Lex Fridman (3:31:27.120)

Because again, like,

Liv Boeree (3:31:28.960)

I know, you know, we bang the metaphor to death,

Lex Fridman (3:31:32.200)

but like, tiled with X, you know,

Liv Boeree (3:31:36.000)

tiled with paperclips,

Lex Fridman (3:31:37.880)

doesn't require that much of a code to describe.

Liv Boeree (3:31:41.120)

Obviously, maybe something emerges from it,

Lex Fridman (3:31:42.720)

but that steady state, assuming a steady state,

Liv Boeree (3:31:44.840)

it's not very interesting.

Lex Fridman (3:31:45.680)

Whereas it seems like our universe is over time

Liv Boeree (3:31:49.720)

becoming more and more complex and interesting.

Lex Fridman (3:31:51.960)

There's so much richness and beauty and diversity

Liv Boeree (3:31:54.000)

on this earth.

Lex Fridman (3:31:54.840)

And I want that to continue and get more.

Liv Boeree (3:31:56.280)

I want more diversity.

Lex Fridman (3:31:58.640)

And the very best sense of that word

Liv Boeree (3:32:01.880)

is to me the goal of all this.

Lex Fridman (3:32:07.040)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (3:32:07.880)

And somehow have fun in the process.

Lex Fridman (3:32:10.880)

Yes.

Liv Boeree (3:32:12.120)

Because we do create a lot of fun things along,

Lex Fridman (3:32:14.360)

instead of in this creative force

Lex Fridman (3:32:18.000)

and all the beautiful things we create,

Lex Fridman (3:32:19.480)

somehow there's like a funness to it.

Lex Fridman (3:32:22.520)

And perhaps that has to do with the finiteness of life,

Lex Fridman (3:32:25.160)

the finiteness of all these experiences,

Liv Boeree (3:32:28.400)

which is what makes them kind of unique.

Lex Fridman (3:32:31.360)

Like the fact that they end,

Liv Boeree (3:32:32.920)

there's this, whatever it is,

Lex Fridman (3:32:35.480)

falling in love or creating a piece of art

Liv Boeree (3:32:40.480)

or creating a bridge or creating a rocket

Lex Fridman (3:32:45.560)

or creating a, I don't know,

Liv Boeree (3:32:48.880)

just the businesses that build something

Lex Fridman (3:32:53.160)

or solve something.

Liv Boeree (3:32:56.160)

The fact that it is born and it dies

Lex Fridman (3:33:00.840)

somehow embeds it with fun, with joy

Liv Boeree (3:33:07.040)

for the people involved.

Lex Fridman (3:33:08.440)

I don't know what that is.

Liv Boeree (3:33:09.920)

The finiteness of it.

Lex Fridman (3:33:11.400)

It can do.

Liv Boeree (3:33:12.240)

Some people struggle with the,

Lex Fridman (3:33:13.800)

I mean, a big thing I think that one has to learn

Liv Boeree (3:33:17.880)

is being okay with things coming to an end.

Lex Fridman (3:33:21.120)

And in terms of like projects and so on,

Liv Boeree (3:33:25.640)

people cling onto things beyond

Lex Fridman (3:33:27.120)

what they're meant to be doing,

Liv Boeree (3:33:28.520)

beyond what is reasonable.

Lex Fridman (3:33:32.040)

And I'm gonna have to come to terms

Liv Boeree (3:33:33.880)

with this podcast coming to an end.

Lex Fridman (3:33:35.800)

I really enjoyed talking to you.

Liv Boeree (3:33:37.080)

I think it's obvious as we've talked about many times,

Lex Fridman (3:33:40.160)

you should be doing a podcast.

Liv Boeree (3:33:41.360)

You should, you're already doing a lot of stuff publicly

Lex Fridman (3:33:45.960)

to the world, which is awesome.

Lex Fridman (3:33:47.360)

And you're a great educator.

Lex Fridman (3:33:48.440)

You're a great mind.

Liv Boeree (3:33:49.280)

You're a great intellect.

Lex Fridman (3:33:50.280)

But it's also this whole medium of just talking

Liv Boeree (3:33:52.840)

is also fun.

Lex Fridman (3:33:53.680)

It is good.

Liv Boeree (3:33:54.520)

It's a fun one.

Lex Fridman (3:33:55.360)

It really is good.

Lex Fridman (3:33:56.200)

And it's just, it's nothing but like,

Lex Fridman (3:33:58.840)

oh, it's just so much fun.

Lex Fridman (3:34:00.560)

And you can just get into so many,

Lex Fridman (3:34:03.160)

yeah, there's this space to just explore

Lex Fridman (3:34:05.240)

and see what comes and emerges.

Lex Fridman (3:34:07.440)

And yeah.

Liv Boeree (3:34:08.280)

Yeah, to understand yourself better.

Lex Fridman (3:34:09.320)

And if you're talking to others,

Liv Boeree (3:34:10.320)

to understand them better and together with them.

Lex Fridman (3:34:12.560)

I mean, you should do your own podcast,

Lex Fridman (3:34:15.320)

but you should also do a podcast with C

Lex Fridman (3:34:16.960)

as we've talked about.

Liv Boeree (3:34:18.640)

The two of you have such different minds

Lex Fridman (3:34:22.800)

that like melt together in just hilarious ways,

Liv Boeree (3:34:26.040)

fascinating ways, just the tension of ideas there

Lex Fridman (3:34:29.320)

is really powerful.

Lex Fridman (3:34:30.240)

But in general, I think you got a beautiful voice.

Lex Fridman (3:34:33.200)

So thank you so much for talking today.

Liv Boeree (3:34:35.320)

Thank you for being a friend.

Lex Fridman (3:34:36.520)

Thank you for honoring me with this conversation

Lex Fridman (3:34:39.320)

and with your valuable time.

Lex Fridman (3:34:40.400)

Thanks, Liv.

Liv Boeree (3:34:41.240)

Thank you.

Lex Fridman (3:34:42.560)

Thanks for listening to this conversation with Liv Marie.

Liv Boeree (3:34:45.160)

To support this podcast,

Lex Fridman (3:34:46.280)

please check out our sponsors in the description.

Lex Fridman (3:34:48.800)

And now let me leave you with some words

Lex Fridman (3:34:50.880)

from Richard Feynman.

Liv Boeree (3:34:53.080)

I think it's much more interesting to live not knowing

Lex Fridman (3:34:56.240)

than to have answers, which might be wrong.

Liv Boeree (3:34:59.280)

I have approximate answers and possible beliefs

Lex Fridman (3:35:01.800)

and different degrees of uncertainty about different things,

Lex Fridman (3:35:05.120)

but I'm not absolutely sure of anything.

Lex Fridman (3:35:08.520)

And there are many things I don't know anything about,

Liv Boeree (3:35:11.480)

such as whether it means anything to ask why we're here.

Lex Fridman (3:35:15.440)

I don't have to know the answer.

Liv Boeree (3:35:17.560)

I don't feel frightened not knowing things

Lex Fridman (3:35:20.760)

by being lost in a mysterious universe without any purpose,

Liv Boeree (3:35:24.280)

which is the way it really is as far as I can tell.

Lex Fridman (3:35:27.520)

Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.

Lex Fridman (40:01.380)

So it made total sense.

Lex Fridman (40:03.460)

And in terms of negotiations

Lex Fridman (40:05.420)

and the way things were communicated,

Lex Fridman (40:07.300)

it seemed to Stalin that for sure,

Liv Boeree (40:11.540)

that they would remain, at least for a while,

Lex Fridman (40:16.100)

peaceful collaborators.

Lex Fridman (40:17.620)

And that, and everybody, because of that,

Lex Fridman (40:21.380)

in the Soviet Union believed that it was a huge shock

Liv Boeree (40:24.140)

when Kiev was invaded.

Lex Fridman (40:25.820)

And you hear echoes of that when I travel to Ukraine,

Liv Boeree (40:28.220)

sort of the shock of the invasion.

Lex Fridman (40:32.180)

It's not just the invasion on one particular border,

Lex Fridman (40:34.500)

but the invasion of the capital city.

Lex Fridman (40:36.700)

And just like, holy shit, especially at that time,

Liv Boeree (40:41.380)

when you thought World War I,

Lex Fridman (40:44.220)

you realized that that was the war to end all wars.

Liv Boeree (40:46.900)

You would never have this kind of war.

Lex Fridman (40:48.980)

And holy shit, this person is mad enough

Liv Boeree (40:52.380)

to try to take on this monster in the Soviet Union.

Lex Fridman (40:56.300)

So it's no longer going to be a war

Liv Boeree (40:58.300)

of hundreds of thousands dead.

Lex Fridman (40:59.820)

It'll be a war of tens of millions dead.

Lex Fridman (41:02.260)

And yeah, but that, that's a very large scale kind of lie,

Lex Fridman (41:08.260)

but I'm sure there's in politics and geopolitics,

Liv Boeree (41:11.460)

that kind of lying happening all the time.

Lex Fridman (41:14.620)

And a lot of people pay financially

Lex Fridman (41:17.260)

and with their lives for that kind of lying.

Lex Fridman (41:19.060)

But in our personal lives, I don't know how often we,

Liv Boeree (41:22.260)

maybe we.

Lex Fridman (41:23.100)

I think people do.

Liv Boeree (41:23.940)

I mean, like think of spouses

Lex Fridman (41:25.900)

cheating on their partners, right?

Lex Fridman (41:27.340)

And then like having to lie,

Lex Fridman (41:28.340)

like where were you last night?

Liv Boeree (41:29.540)

Stuff like that. Oh shit, that's tough.

Lex Fridman (41:30.580)

Yeah, that's true.

Liv Boeree (41:31.420)

Like that's, I think, you know, I mean,

Lex Fridman (41:34.220)

unfortunately that stuff happens all the time, right?

Liv Boeree (41:36.180)

Or having like multiple families, that one is great.

Lex Fridman (41:38.740)

When each family doesn't know about the other one

Lex Fridman (41:42.220)

and like maintaining that life.

Lex Fridman (41:44.620)

There's probably a sense of excitement about that too.

Liv Boeree (41:48.580)

Or. It seems unnecessary, yeah.

Lex Fridman (41:50.700)

But. Why?

Liv Boeree (41:51.740)

Well, just lying.

Lex Fridman (41:52.580)

Like, you know, the truth finds a way of coming out.

Liv Boeree (41:56.300)

You know? Yes.

Lex Fridman (41:57.140)

But hence that's the thrill.

Liv Boeree (41:59.220)

Yeah, perhaps.

Lex Fridman (42:00.220)

Yeah, people.

Liv Boeree (42:01.060)

I mean, you know, that's why I think actually like poker.

Lex Fridman (42:04.220)

What's so interesting about poker

Liv Boeree (42:05.940)

is most of the best players I know,

Lex Fridman (42:09.860)

they're always exceptions, you know?

Liv Boeree (42:10.900)

They're always bad eggs.

Lex Fridman (42:12.460)

But actually poker players are very honest people.

Liv Boeree (42:15.140)

I would say they are more honest than the average,

Lex Fridman (42:17.540)

you know, if you just took random population sample.

Liv Boeree (42:22.380)

Because A, you know, I think, you know,

Lex Fridman (42:26.100)

humans like to have that.

Liv Boeree (42:28.500)

Most people like to have some kind of, you know,

Lex Fridman (42:30.580)

mysterious, you know, an opportunity to do something

Liv Boeree (42:32.740)

like a little edgy.

Lex Fridman (42:34.900)

So we get to sort of scratch that itch

Liv Boeree (42:36.860)

of being edgy at the poker table,

Lex Fridman (42:38.340)

where it's like, it's part of the game.

Liv Boeree (42:40.420)

Everyone knows what they're in for, and that's allowed.

Lex Fridman (42:43.420)

And you get to like really get that out of your system.

Lex Fridman (42:47.740)

And then also like poker players learned that, you know,

Lex Fridman (42:51.220)

I would play in a huge game against some of my friends,

Liv Boeree (42:55.380)

even my partner, Igor, where we will be, you know,

Lex Fridman (42:57.740)

absolutely going at each other's throats,

Liv Boeree (42:59.660)

trying to draw blood in terms of winning each money

Lex Fridman (43:02.060)

off each other and like getting under each other's skin,

Liv Boeree (43:04.020)

winding each other up, doing the craftiest moves we can.

Lex Fridman (43:08.340)

But then once the game's done, you know,

Liv Boeree (43:11.100)

the winners and the losers will go off

Lex Fridman (43:12.260)

and get a drink together and have a fun time

Lex Fridman (43:13.860)

and like talk about it in this like weird academic way

Lex Fridman (43:16.660)

afterwards, because, and that's why games are so great.

Liv Boeree (43:19.500)

Cause you get to like live out like this competitive urge

Lex Fridman (43:23.980)

that, you know, most people have.

Lex Fridman (43:26.420)

What's it feel like to lose?

Lex Fridman (43:28.660)

Like we talked about bluffing when it worked out.

Lex Fridman (43:31.380)

What about when you, when you go broke?

Lex Fridman (43:35.380)

So like in a game, I'm, fortunately I've never gone broke.

Lex Fridman (43:39.140)

You mean like full life?

Lex Fridman (43:40.820)

Full life, no.

Liv Boeree (43:42.460)

I know plenty of people who have.

Lex Fridman (43:46.740)

And I don't think Igor would mind me saying he went,

Liv Boeree (43:48.180)

you know, he went broke once in poker bowl, you know,

Lex Fridman (43:50.300)

early on when we were together.

Liv Boeree (43:51.820)

I feel like you haven't lived unless you've gone broke.

Lex Fridman (43:54.260)

Oh yeah.

Liv Boeree (43:55.660)

Some sense.

Lex Fridman (43:56.500)

Right.

Liv Boeree (43:57.340)

Some fundamental sense.

Lex Fridman (43:58.180)

I mean, I'm happy, I've sort of lived through it,

Liv Boeree (43:59.900)

vicariously through him when he did it at the time.

Lex Fridman (44:02.420)

But yeah, what's it like to lose?

Liv Boeree (44:04.140)

Well, it depends.

Lex Fridman (44:04.980)

So it depends on the amount.

Liv Boeree (44:06.020)

It depends what percentage of your net worth

Lex Fridman (44:07.660)

you've just lost.

Liv Boeree (44:10.060)

It depends on your brain chemistry.

Lex Fridman (44:11.540)

It really, you know, varies from person to person.

Liv Boeree (44:13.140)

You have a very cold calculating way of thinking about this.

Lex Fridman (44:16.900)

So it depends what percentage.

Lex Fridman (44:18.980)

Well, it did, it really does, right?

Lex Fridman (44:20.700)

Yeah, it's true, it's true.

Liv Boeree (44:22.140)

I mean, that's another thing poker trains you to do.

Lex Fridman (44:24.740)

You see, you see everything in percentages

Liv Boeree (44:28.060)

or you see everything in like ROI or expected hourlies

Lex Fridman (44:30.820)

or cost benefit, et cetera.

Liv Boeree (44:32.420)

You know, so that's, one of the things I've tried to do

Lex Fridman (44:37.220)

is calibrate the strength of my emotional response

Liv Boeree (44:39.820)

to the win or loss that I've received.

Lex Fridman (44:43.380)

Because it's no good if you like, you know,

Liv Boeree (44:45.540)

you have a huge emotional dramatic response to a tiny loss

Lex Fridman (44:50.460)

or on the flip side, you have a huge win

Lex Fridman (44:53.220)

and you're sort of so dead inside

Lex Fridman (44:54.580)

that you don't even feel it.

Liv Boeree (44:55.420)

Well, that's, you know, that's a shame.

Lex Fridman (44:56.820)

I want my emotions to calibrate with reality

Liv Boeree (45:00.220)

as much as possible.

Lex Fridman (45:02.860)

So yeah, what's it like to lose?

Liv Boeree (45:04.180)

I mean, I've had times where I've lost, you know,

Lex Fridman (45:07.180)

busted out of a tournament that I thought I was gonna win in

Liv Boeree (45:09.260)

especially if I got really unlucky or I make a dumb play

Lex Fridman (45:13.940)

where I've gone away and like, you know, kicked the wall,

Liv Boeree (45:17.540)

punched a wall, I like nearly broke my hand one time.

Lex Fridman (45:19.900)

Like I'm a lot less competitive than I used to be.

Liv Boeree (45:24.100)

Like I was like pathologically competitive in my like

Lex Fridman (45:27.540)

late teens, early twenties, I just had to win at everything.

Lex Fridman (45:30.900)

And I think that sort of slowly waned as I've gotten older.

Lex Fridman (45:33.540)

According to you, yeah.

Liv Boeree (45:34.860)

According to me.

Lex Fridman (45:35.700)

I don't know if others would say the same, right?

Liv Boeree (45:38.500)

I feel like ultra competitive people,

Lex Fridman (45:40.860)

like I've heard Joe Rogan say this to me.

Liv Boeree (45:43.020)

It's like that he's a lot less competitive

Lex Fridman (45:44.780)

than he used to be.

Liv Boeree (45:45.620)

I don't know about that.

Lex Fridman (45:47.380)

Oh, I believe it.

Liv Boeree (45:48.420)

No, I totally believe it.

Lex Fridman (45:49.260)

Like, because as you get, you can still be,

Liv Boeree (45:51.460)

like I care about winning.

Lex Fridman (45:53.020)

Like when, you know, I play a game with my buddies online

Liv Boeree (45:56.060)

or, you know, whatever it is,

Lex Fridman (45:57.460)

polytopia is my current obsession.

Liv Boeree (45:58.780)

Like when I.

Lex Fridman (46:00.820)

Thank you for passing on your obsession to me.

Lex Fridman (46:02.980)

Are you playing now?

Lex Fridman (46:03.820)

Yeah, I'm playing now.

Liv Boeree (46:04.780)

We gotta have a game.

Lex Fridman (46:05.900)

But I'm terrible and I enjoy playing terribly.

Liv Boeree (46:08.140)

I don't wanna have a game because that's gonna pull me

Lex Fridman (46:10.060)

into your monster of like a competitive play.

Liv Boeree (46:13.940)

It's important, it's an important skill.

Lex Fridman (46:15.420)

I'm enjoying playing on the, I can't.

Liv Boeree (46:18.340)

You just do the points thing, you know, against the bots.

Lex Fridman (46:20.980)

Yeah, against the bots.

Lex Fridman (46:22.020)

And I can't even do the, there's like a hard one

Lex Fridman (46:26.100)

and there's a very hard one.

Lex Fridman (46:26.940)

And then it's crazy, yeah.

Lex Fridman (46:27.820)

It's crazy.

Liv Boeree (46:28.660)

I can't, I don't even enjoy the hard one.

Lex Fridman (46:29.900)

The crazy, I really don't enjoy.

Liv Boeree (46:32.020)

Cause it's intense.

Lex Fridman (46:33.660)

You have to constantly try to win

Liv Boeree (46:34.980)

as opposed to enjoy building a little world and.

Lex Fridman (46:37.980)

Yeah, no, no, no.

Liv Boeree (46:38.820)

There's no time for exploration in polytopia.

Lex Fridman (46:40.100)

You gotta get.

Liv Boeree (46:40.940)

Well, when, once you graduate from the crazies,

Lex Fridman (46:42.740)

then you can come play the.

Liv Boeree (46:44.540)

Graduate from the crazies.

Lex Fridman (46:46.460)

Yeah, so in order to be able to play a decent game

Liv Boeree (46:48.620)

against like, you know, our group,

Lex Fridman (46:51.700)

you'll need to be, you'll need to be consistently winning

Liv Boeree (46:55.740)

like 90% of games against 15 crazy bots.

Lex Fridman (46:58.300)

Yeah.

Lex Fridman (46:59.180)

And you'll be able to, like there'll be,

Lex Fridman (47:00.740)

I could teach you it within a day, honestly.

Lex Fridman (47:03.340)

How to beat the crazies?

Lex Fridman (47:04.660)

How to beat the crazies.

Lex Fridman (47:05.740)

And then, and then you'll be ready for the big leagues.

Lex Fridman (47:08.140)

Generalizes to more than just polytopia.

Lex Fridman (47:11.060)

But okay, why were we talking about polytopia?

Lex Fridman (47:14.420)

Losing hurts.

Liv Boeree (47:15.980)

Losing hurts, oh yeah.

Lex Fridman (47:17.060)

Yes, competitiveness over time.

Liv Boeree (47:19.380)

Oh yeah.

Lex Fridman (47:20.340)

I think it's more that, at least for me,

Liv Boeree (47:23.340)

I still care about playing,

Lex Fridman (47:24.740)

about winning when I choose to play something.

Liv Boeree (47:26.460)

It's just that I don't see the world

Lex Fridman (47:28.700)

as zero sum as I used to be, you know?

Liv Boeree (47:31.860)

I think as one gets older and wiser,

Lex Fridman (47:34.940)

you start to see the world more as a positive something.

Liv Boeree (47:38.060)

Or at least you're more aware of externalities,

Lex Fridman (47:40.820)

of scenarios, of competitive interactions.

Lex Fridman (47:43.740)

And so, yeah, I just like, I'm more,

Lex Fridman (47:47.180)

and I'm more aware of my own, you know, like,

Liv Boeree (47:50.180)

if I have a really strong emotional response to losing,

Lex Fridman (47:52.780)

and that makes me then feel shitty for the rest of the day,

Lex Fridman (47:54.980)

and then I beat myself up mentally for it.

Lex Fridman (47:57.220)

Like, I'm now more aware

Liv Boeree (47:58.660)

that that's unnecessary negative externality.

Lex Fridman (48:01.660)

So I'm like, okay, I need to find a way to turn this down,

Liv Boeree (48:03.940)

you know, dial this down a bit.

Lex Fridman (48:05.300)

Was poker the thing that has,

Liv Boeree (48:07.580)

if you think back at your life,

Lex Fridman (48:09.700)

and think about some of the lower points of your life,

Liv Boeree (48:12.180)

like the darker places you've got in your mind,

Lex Fridman (48:15.020)

did it have to do something with poker?

Liv Boeree (48:17.140)

Like, did losing spark the descent into darkness,

Lex Fridman (48:23.620)

or was it something else?

Liv Boeree (48:27.540)

I think my darkest points in poker

Lex Fridman (48:29.460)

were when I was wanting to quit and move on to other things,

Lex Fridman (48:34.500)

but I felt like I hadn't ticked all the boxes

Lex Fridman (48:38.340)

I wanted to tick.

Liv Boeree (48:39.980)

Like, I wanted to be the most winningest female player,

Lex Fridman (48:43.740)

which is by itself a bad goal.

Liv Boeree (48:45.540)

You know, that was one of my initial goals,

Lex Fridman (48:47.940)

and I was like, well, I haven't, you know,

Lex Fridman (48:48.900)

and I wanted to win a WPT event.

Lex Fridman (48:50.900)

I've won one of these, I've won one of these,

Lex Fridman (48:52.100)

but I want one of those as well.

Lex Fridman (48:53.540)

And that sort of, again, like,

Liv Boeree (48:57.380)

it's a drive of like overoptimization to random metrics

Lex Fridman (49:00.060)

that I decided were important

Liv Boeree (49:02.420)

without much wisdom at the time, but then like carried on.

Lex Fridman (49:06.540)

That made me continue chasing it longer

Liv Boeree (49:09.540)

than I still actually had the passion to chase it for.

Lex Fridman (49:12.860)

And I don't have any regrets that, you know,

Liv Boeree (49:15.740)

I played for as long as I did, because who knows,

Lex Fridman (49:17.540)

you know, I wouldn't be sitting here,

Liv Boeree (49:19.260)

I wouldn't be living this incredible life

Lex Fridman (49:21.020)

that I'm living now.

Liv Boeree (49:22.660)

This is the height of your life right now.

Lex Fridman (49:24.860)

This is it, peak experience, absolute pinnacle

Liv Boeree (49:28.100)

here in your robot land with your creepy light.

Lex Fridman (49:34.500)

No, it is, I mean, I wouldn't change a thing

Liv Boeree (49:37.340)

about my life right now, and I feel very blessed to say that.

Lex Fridman (49:40.900)

So, but the dark times were in the sort of like 2016 to 18,

Liv Boeree (49:47.980)

even sooner really, where I was like,

Lex Fridman (49:50.340)

I had stopped loving the game,

Lex Fridman (49:53.100)

and I was going through the motions,

Lex Fridman (49:55.420)

and I would, and then I was like, you know,

Liv Boeree (49:59.660)

I would take the losses harder than I needed to,

Lex Fridman (50:02.220)

because I'm like, ah, it's another one.

Lex Fridman (50:03.380)

And it was, I was aware that like,

Lex Fridman (50:04.820)

I felt like my life was ticking away,

Lex Fridman (50:06.180)

and I was like, is this gonna be what's on my tombstone?

Lex Fridman (50:07.940)

Oh yeah, she played the game of, you know,

Liv Boeree (50:09.580)

this zero sum game of poker,

Lex Fridman (50:11.700)

slightly more optimally than her next opponent.

Lex Fridman (50:14.100)

Like, cool, great, legacy, you know?

Lex Fridman (50:16.380)

So, I just wanted, you know, there was something in me

Liv Boeree (50:19.660)

that knew I needed to be doing something

Lex Fridman (50:21.340)

more directly impactful and just meaningful.

Liv Boeree (50:25.260)

It was just like your search for meaning,

Lex Fridman (50:26.260)

and I think it's a thing a lot of poker players,

Liv Boeree (50:27.940)

even a lot of, I imagine any games players

Lex Fridman (50:30.900)

who sort of love intellectual pursuits,

Liv Boeree (50:36.100)

you know, I think you should ask Magnus Carlsen

Lex Fridman (50:37.660)

this question, I don't know what he's on.

Lex Fridman (50:38.500)

He's walking away from chess, right?

Lex Fridman (50:39.780)

Yeah, like, it must be so hard for him.

Liv Boeree (50:41.500)

You know, he's been on the top for so long,

Lex Fridman (50:43.740)

and it's like, well, now what?

Lex Fridman (50:45.300)

He's got this incredible brain, like, what to put it to?

Lex Fridman (50:49.980)

And, yeah, it's.

Liv Boeree (50:52.100)

It's this weird moment where I've just spoken with people

Lex Fridman (50:55.620)

that won multiple gold medals at the Olympics,

Lex Fridman (50:58.380)

and the depression hits hard after you win.

Lex Fridman (51:02.860)

Dopamine crash.

Liv Boeree (51:04.180)

Because it's a kind of a goodbye,

Lex Fridman (51:05.620)

saying goodbye to that person,

Liv Boeree (51:06.900)

to all the dreams you had that thought,

Lex Fridman (51:09.420)

you thought would give meaning to your life,

Lex Fridman (51:11.860)

but in fact, life is full of constant pursuits of meaning.

Lex Fridman (51:16.820)

It doesn't, you don't like arrive and figure it all out,

Lex Fridman (51:20.260)

and there's endless bliss,

Lex Fridman (51:21.700)

and it continues going on and on.

Liv Boeree (51:23.980)

You constantly have to figure out to rediscover yourself.

Lex Fridman (51:27.860)

And so for you, like that struggle to say goodbye to poker,

Liv Boeree (51:31.580)

you have to like find the next.

Lex Fridman (51:33.780)

There's always a bigger game.

Liv Boeree (51:34.940)

That's the thing.

Lex Fridman (51:35.780)

That's my motto is like, what's the next game?

Lex Fridman (51:38.460)

And more importantly,

Lex Fridman (51:41.220)

because obviously game usually implies zero sum,

Lex Fridman (51:43.140)

like what's a game which is like Omni win?

Lex Fridman (51:46.580)

Like what? Omni win.

Liv Boeree (51:47.700)

Omni win.

Lex Fridman (51:48.540)

Why is Omni win so important?

Liv Boeree (51:50.740)

Because if everyone plays zero sum games,

Lex Fridman (51:54.700)

that's a fast track to either completely stagnate

Liv Boeree (51:57.180)

as a civilization, but more actually,

Lex Fridman (51:59.220)

far more likely to extinct ourselves.

Liv Boeree (52:02.300)

You know, like the playing field is finite.

Lex Fridman (52:05.020)

You know, nuclear powers are playing,

Liv Boeree (52:09.620)

you know, a game of poker with, you know,

Lex Fridman (52:12.020)

but their chips are nuclear weapons, right?

Lex Fridman (52:14.500)

And the stakes have gotten so large

Lex Fridman (52:17.020)

that if anyone makes a single bet, you know,

Liv Boeree (52:19.140)

fires some weapons, the playing field breaks.

Lex Fridman (52:22.100)

I made a video on this.

Liv Boeree (52:22.940)

Like, you know, the playing field is finite.

Lex Fridman (52:26.900)

And if we keep playing these adversarial zero sum games,

Liv Boeree (52:31.540)

thinking that we, you know,

Lex Fridman (52:33.180)

in order for us to win, someone else has to lose,

Liv Boeree (52:35.420)

or if we lose that, you know, someone else wins,

Lex Fridman (52:37.740)

that will extinct us.

Liv Boeree (52:40.020)

It's just a matter of when.

Lex Fridman (52:41.100)

What do you think about that mutually assured destruction,

Liv Boeree (52:44.860)

that very simple,

Lex Fridman (52:46.340)

almost to the point of caricaturing game theory idea

Liv Boeree (52:49.980)

that does seem to be at the core

Lex Fridman (52:52.340)

of why we haven't blown each other up yet

Liv Boeree (52:54.060)

with nuclear weapons.

Lex Fridman (52:55.660)

Do you think there's some truth to that,

Liv Boeree (52:57.540)

this kind of stabilizing force

Lex Fridman (53:00.180)

of mutually assured destruction?

Lex Fridman (53:01.500)

And do you think that's gonna hold up

Lex Fridman (53:04.940)

through the 21st century?

Liv Boeree (53:07.340)

I mean, it has held.

Lex Fridman (53:09.980)

Yes, there's definitely truth to it,

Liv Boeree (53:11.700)

that it was a, you know, it's a Nash equilibrium.

Lex Fridman (53:14.740)

Yeah, are you surprised it held this long?

Lex Fridman (53:17.300)

Isn't it crazy?

Lex Fridman (53:18.460)

It is crazy when you factor in all the like

Liv Boeree (53:21.140)

near miss accidental firings.

Lex Fridman (53:24.620)

Yes, that's makes me wonder like, you know,

Liv Boeree (53:28.060)

are you familiar with the like quantum suicide

Lex Fridman (53:29.900)

thought experiment, where it's basically like,

Liv Boeree (53:33.020)

you have a, you know, like a Russian roulette

Lex Fridman (53:36.580)

type scenario hooked up to some kind of quantum event,

Liv Boeree (53:40.620)

you know, particle splitting or pair of particles splitting.

Lex Fridman (53:45.820)

And if it, you know, if it goes A,

Liv Boeree (53:48.420)

then the gun doesn't go off and it goes B,

Lex Fridman (53:50.260)

then it does go off and it kills you.

Liv Boeree (53:52.500)

Because you can only ever be in the universe,

Lex Fridman (53:55.020)

you know, assuming like the Everett branch,

Liv Boeree (53:56.540)

you know, multiverse theory,

Lex Fridman (53:57.780)

you'll always only end up in the branch

Liv Boeree (54:00.220)

where you continually make, you know, option A comes in,

Lex Fridman (54:03.340)

but you run that experiment enough times,

Liv Boeree (54:05.460)

it starts getting pretty damn, you know,

Lex Fridman (54:07.060)

out of the tree gets huge,

Liv Boeree (54:09.380)

there's a million different scenarios,

Lex Fridman (54:10.900)

but you'll always find yourself in this,

Liv Boeree (54:12.420)

in the one where it didn't go off.

Lex Fridman (54:14.860)

And so from that perspective, you are essentially immortal

Liv Boeree (54:20.780)

because someone, and you will only find yourself

Lex Fridman (54:22.580)

in the set of observers that make it down that path.

Lex Fridman (54:25.100)

So it's kind of a...

Lex Fridman (54:26.620)

That doesn't mean, that doesn't mean

Liv Boeree (54:30.420)

you're still not gonna be fucked at some point in your life.

Lex Fridman (54:33.140)

No, of course not, no, I'm not advocating

Liv Boeree (54:34.860)

like that we're all immortal because of this.

Lex Fridman (54:36.420)

It's just like a fun thought experiment.

Lex Fridman (54:38.460)

And the point is it like raises this thing

Lex Fridman (54:40.100)

of like these things called observer selection effects,

Liv Boeree (54:42.380)

which Bostrom, Nick Bostrom talks about a lot,

Lex Fridman (54:44.420)

and I think people should go read.

Liv Boeree (54:46.180)

It's really powerful,

Lex Fridman (54:47.020)

but I think it could be overextended, that logic.

Liv Boeree (54:48.860)

I'm not sure exactly how it can be.

Lex Fridman (54:52.220)

I just feel like you can get, you can overgeneralize

Liv Boeree (54:57.300)

that logic somehow.

Lex Fridman (54:58.340)

Well, no, I mean, it leaves you into like solipsism,

Liv Boeree (55:00.660)

which is a very dangerous mindset.

Lex Fridman (55:02.140)

Again, if everyone like falls into solipsism of like,

Liv Boeree (55:04.340)

well, I'll be fine.

Lex Fridman (55:05.740)

That's a great way of creating a very,

Liv Boeree (55:08.820)

self terminating environment.

Lex Fridman (55:10.860)

But my point is, is that with the nuclear weapons thing,

Liv Boeree (55:14.540)

there have been at least, I think it's 12 or 11 near misses

Lex Fridman (55:19.540)

of like just stupid things, like there was moonrise

Liv Boeree (55:22.940)

over Norway, and it made weird reflections

Lex Fridman (55:25.860)

of some glaciers in the mountains, which set off,

Liv Boeree (55:28.820)

I think the alarms of NORAD radar,

Lex Fridman (55:33.820)

and that put them on high alert, nearly ready to shoot.

Lex Fridman (55:35.700)

And it was only because the head of Russian military

Lex Fridman (55:39.540)

happened to be at the UN in New York at the time

Liv Boeree (55:41.980)

that they go like, well, wait a second,

Lex Fridman (55:43.300)

why would they fire now when their guy is there?

Lex Fridman (55:47.140)

And it was only that lucky happenstance,

Lex Fridman (55:49.260)

which doesn't happen very often where they didn't then

Liv Boeree (55:50.900)

escalate it into firing.

Lex Fridman (55:51.980)

And there's a bunch of these different ones.

Liv Boeree (55:53.860)

Stanislav Petrov, like saved the person

Lex Fridman (55:56.660)

who should be the most famous person on earth,

Liv Boeree (55:57.940)

cause he's probably on expectation,

Lex Fridman (55:59.580)

saved the most human lives of anyone,

Liv Boeree (56:01.180)

like billions of people by ignoring Russian orders to fire

Lex Fridman (56:05.300)

because he felt in his gut that actually

Liv Boeree (56:06.700)

this was a false alarm.

Lex Fridman (56:07.540)

And it turned out to be, you know, very hard thing to do.

Lex Fridman (56:11.060)

And there's so many of those scenarios that I can't help

Lex Fridman (56:13.500)

but wonder at this point that we aren't having this kind

Liv Boeree (56:15.900)

of like selection effect thing going on.

Lex Fridman (56:17.940)

Cause you look back and you're like, geez,

Liv Boeree (56:19.820)

that's a lot of near misses.

Lex Fridman (56:20.820)

But of course we don't know the actual probabilities

Liv Boeree (56:22.860)

that they would have lent each one would have ended up

Lex Fridman (56:24.340)

in nuclear war.

Liv Boeree (56:25.180)

Maybe they were not that likely, but still the point is,

Lex Fridman (56:27.740)

it's a very dark, stupid game that we're playing.

Lex Fridman (56:30.900)

And it is an absolute moral imperative if you ask me

Lex Fridman (56:35.340)

to get as many people thinking about ways

Liv Boeree (56:37.220)

to make this like very precarious.

Lex Fridman (56:39.540)

Cause we're in a Nash equilibrium,

Lex Fridman (56:41.140)

but it's not like we're in the bottom of a pit.

Lex Fridman (56:42.820)

You know, if you would like map it topographically,

Liv Boeree (56:46.380)

it's not like a stable ball at the bottom of a thing.

Lex Fridman (56:48.380)

We're not in equilibrium because of that.

Liv Boeree (56:49.420)

We're on the top of a hill with a ball balanced on top.

Lex Fridman (56:52.380)

And just at any little nudge could send it flying down

Lex Fridman (56:55.580)

and you know, nuclear war pops off

Lex Fridman (56:57.100)

and hellfire and bad times.

Liv Boeree (57:00.060)

On the positive side,

Lex Fridman (57:01.100)

life on earth will probably still continue.

Lex Fridman (57:03.220)

And another intelligent civilization might still pop up.

Lex Fridman (57:06.220)

Maybe.

Liv Boeree (57:07.060)

Several millennia after.

Lex Fridman (57:08.420)

Pick your X risk, depends on the X risk.

Liv Boeree (57:10.180)

Nuclear war, sure.

Lex Fridman (57:11.020)

That's one of the perhaps less bad ones.

Liv Boeree (57:12.820)

Green goo through synthetic biology, very bad.

Lex Fridman (57:17.620)

Will turn, you know, destroy all, you know,

Liv Boeree (57:22.220)

organic matter through, you know,

Lex Fridman (57:25.740)

it's basically like a biological paperclip maximizer.

Liv Boeree (57:28.140)

Also bad.

Lex Fridman (57:28.980)

Or AI type, you know, mass extinction thing as well

Liv Boeree (57:32.540)

would also be bad.

Lex Fridman (57:33.380)

Shh, they're listening.

Liv Boeree (57:35.060)

There's a robot right behind you.

Lex Fridman (57:36.500)

Okay, wait.

Lex Fridman (57:37.340)

So let me ask you about this from a game theory perspective.

Lex Fridman (57:40.380)

Do you think we're living in a simulation?

Lex Fridman (57:42.300)

Do you think we're living inside a video game

Lex Fridman (57:44.700)

created by somebody else?

Lex Fridman (57:48.100)

Well, so what was the second part of the question?

Lex Fridman (57:50.220)

Do I think we're living in a simulation and?

Liv Boeree (57:52.620)

A simulation that is observed by somebody

Lex Fridman (57:56.660)

for purpose of entertainment.

Lex Fridman (57:58.620)

So like a video game.

Lex Fridman (57:59.660)

Are we listening?

Liv Boeree (58:00.500)

Are we, because there's a,

Lex Fridman (58:03.140)

it's like Phil Hellmuth type of situation, right?

Liv Boeree (58:05.260)

Like there's a creepy level of like,

Lex Fridman (58:09.940)

this is kind of fun and interesting.

Liv Boeree (58:13.700)

Like there's a lot of interesting stuff going on.

Lex Fridman (58:16.940)

Maybe that could be somehow integrated

Liv Boeree (58:18.820)

into the evolutionary process where the way we perceive

Lex Fridman (58:23.660)

and are.

Lex Fridman (58:24.500)

Are you asking me if I believe in God?

Lex Fridman (58:27.340)

Sounds like it.

Liv Boeree (58:28.820)

Kind of, but God seems to be not optimizing

Lex Fridman (58:33.980)

in the different formulations of God that we conceive of.

Liv Boeree (58:37.420)

He doesn't seem to be, or she, optimizing

Lex Fridman (58:39.940)

for like personal entertainment.

Liv Boeree (58:44.220)

Maybe the older gods did.

Lex Fridman (58:45.860)

But the, you know, just like, basically like a teenager

Liv Boeree (58:49.820)

in their mom's basement watching, create a fun universe

Lex Fridman (58:54.180)

to observe what kind of crazy shit might happen.

Liv Boeree (58:58.500)

Okay, so to try and answer this.

Lex Fridman (59:00.100)

Do I think there is some kind of extraneous intelligence

Liv Boeree (59:11.340)

to like our, you know, classic measurable universe

Lex Fridman (59:16.220)

that we, you know, can measure with, you know,

Lex Fridman (59:18.220)

through our current physics and instruments?

Lex Fridman (59:23.780)

I think so, yes.

Liv Boeree (59:25.100)

Partly because I've had just small little bits of evidence

Lex Fridman (59:29.100)

in my own life, which have made me question.

Liv Boeree (59:32.300)

Like, so I was a diehard atheist, even five years ago.

Lex Fridman (59:37.460)

You know, I got into like the rationality community,

Liv Boeree (59:39.820)

big fan of less wrong, continue to be an incredible resource.

Lex Fridman (59:45.140)

But I've just started to have too many little snippets

Liv Boeree (59:49.140)

of experience, which don't make sense with the current sort

Lex Fridman (59:54.140)

of purely materialistic explanation of how reality works.